Place of death in Parkinson's disease and related disorders in England and Wales: post-pandemic trends and implications for care planning.

BACKGROUND: With growing emphasis on palliative care for neurodegenerative conditions, understanding trends in place of death helps improve quality of end-of-life care for people with Parkinson's disease and related disorders (PDRDs), focusing allocation of resources and training and identifying inequalities. OBJECTIVES: Review national and regional place of death trends for people with PDRD including pre- and post-pandemic trends. METHODS: Mortality data for England and Wales (March 2018 and July 2022) were analysed with summary statistics and interrupted time series, exploring place of death for those who died with PDRD, with and without coexisting dementia, with reference to all deaths in England and Wales. RESULTS: Of 2,415,566 adult deaths, 56,790 included mention of PDRD. Hospital deaths were most common in people with PDRD (39.17%), followed by care homes (38.84%). People with PDRD were half as likely to die in hospice compared with the general population (2.03 vs 4.94%). Proportion of care home deaths fell significantly after March 2020 (40.6-37%, P = 0.035). Regionally, London was an outlier with a lower proportion of deaths occurring in care homes with a higher proportion of hospital deaths. CONCLUSION: Place of death for people with PDRD is changing, with more hospice and home deaths. People with PDRD, particularly those with co-existent dementia, are less likely to access inpatient hospice care than the general population. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of care home deaths has reduced significantly with an increase in home deaths, with implications for service and resource allocation.

The cost of providing care by family and friends (informal care) in the last year of life: A population observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about replacement costs of care provided by informal carers during the last year of life for people dying of cancer and non-cancer diseases. AIM: To estimate informal caregiving costs and explore the relationship with carer and decedent characteristics. DESIGN: National observational study of bereaved carers. Questions included informal end-of-life caregiving into the 2017 Health Survey for England including estimated recalled frequency, duration and intensity of care provision. We estimated replacement costs for a decedent's last year of life valuing time at the price of a substitutable activity. Spearman rank correlations and multivariable linear regression were used to explore relationships with last year of life costs. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Adult national survey respondents - England. RESULTS: A total of 7997 adults were interviewed from 5767/9612 (60%) of invited households. Estimated replacement costs of personal care and other help were £27,072 and £13,697 per carer and a national cost of £13.2 billion and £15.5 billion respectively. Longer care duration and intensity, older age, death at home (lived together), non-cancer cause of death and greater deprivation were associated with increased costs. Female sex, and not accessing 'other care services' were related to higher costs for other help only. CONCLUSION: We provide a first adult general population estimate for replacement informal care costs in the last year of life of £41,000 per carer per decedent and highlight characteristics associated with greater costs. This presents a major challenge for future universal care coverage as the pool of people providing informal care diminish with an ageing population.

Double-blinded randomised placebo controlled trial of enterosgel (polymethylsiloxane polyhydrate) for the treatment of IBS with diarrhoea (IBS-D).

OBJECTIVE: Irritable bowel syndrome with diarrhoea (IBS-D) is a common and challenging condition that significantly reduces quality of life. Enterosgel (polymethylsiloxane polyhydrate) is an intestinal adsorbent which sequesters harmful molecules and is safe and effective in acute infective diarrhoea. This randomised controlled multicentre trial aimed to investigate its safety and efficacy in patients with IBS-D. DESIGN: After a 2-week screening phase, participants were randomised into an 8-week double-blind phase, followed by an 8-week open-label and follow-up phase. Participants recorded stool consistency, pain and global symptoms in e-diaries and questionnaires. The primary outcome was the percentage of responders on a composite abdominal pain (≥30% decrease in the weekly score) and stool consistency (50% reduction in days per week with at least one stool of BSFS type 6 or 7) score during at least 4 weeks of the treatment period. RESULTS: 440 patients with IBS-D were randomised to the double-blind phase with 393 continuing to the open-label phase. The Primary outcome responder rate by intention-to-treat for enterosgel versus placebo was 37.4% vs 24.3% (OR 1.95, NNT 8, p=0.002). Enterosgel also improved stool consistency (48.5% vs 32.5%, p<0.0001) abdominal pain (53.3% vs 40.2%, p=0.003), stool frequency (treatment effect -0.32 (-0.62 to -0.02)) and urgency (treatment effect -0.59 (-0.85 to -0.33)). 60% of patients reported adequate relief of symptoms after open-label treatment. Adverse event frequency was similar in both groups, with no serious events attributable to enterosgel. CONCLUSION: Enterosgel is safe and effective in IBS-D, providing an alternative to the limited current treatment options. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN17149988.

A mixed-method feasibility study of a novel transitional regime of incremental haemodialysis: study design and protocol.

BACKGROUND: Incremental haemodialysis/haemodiafiltration (HD) may help reduce early mortality rates in patients starting HD. This mixed-method feasibility study aims to test the acceptability, tolerance and safety of a novel incremental HD regime, and to study its impact on parameters of patient wellbeing. METHOD: We aim to enrol 20 patients who will commence HD twice-weekly with progressive increases in duration and frequency, achieving conventional treatment times over 15 weeks (incremental group). Participants will be followed-up for 6 months and will undergo regular tests including urine collections, bio-impedance analyses and quality-of-life questionnaires. Semi-structured interviews will be conducted to explore patients' prior expectations from HD, their motivations for participation and experiences of receiving incremental HD. For comparison of safety and indicators of dialysis adequacy, a cohort of 40 matched patients who previously received conventional HD will be constructed from local dialysis records (historical controls). RESULTS: Data will be recorded on the numbers screened and proportions consented and completing the study (primary outcome). Incremental and conventional groups will be compared in terms of differences in blood pressure control, interdialytic weight changes, indicators of dialysis adequacy and differences in adverse and serious adverse events. In analyses restricted to incremental group, measurements of RRF, fluid load and quality-of-life during follow-up will be compared with baseline values. From patient interviews, a narrative description of key themes along with anonymised quotes will be presented. CONCLUSION: Results from this study will address a significant knowledge gap in the prescription HD therapy and inform the development novel future therapy regimens.

Protocol and Baseline Data of a Multicentre Prospective Double-Blinded Randomized Study of Intravenous Iron on Functional Status in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency (ID) is common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to an inadequate dietary intake of iron, poor absorption from the gut and increased iron losses. In addition to preventing anaemia, iron is important for normal heart function, being involved in processes that generate a necessary continuous energy supply. Treatment with intravenous (IV) iron has been suggested to lead to improvement in heart function and well-being in people with ID and CKD. In the Iron and the Heart Study, we hypothesized that IV iron treatment will primarily improve exercise capacity and may secondarily impact the feeling of well-being in comparison to placebo over 3 months in non-anaemic CKD patients who have ID. METHODS: This was a prospective double-blinded explorative randomized, multi-centre study designed to compare the effects of IV iron supplementation and placebo in iron-deficient but not anaemic patients with established CKD stages 3b-5 on functional status, and in addition cardiac structure and function. The study included 54 adults with serum ferritin (SF) <100 µg/L and/or transferrin saturation <20%, randomized in a 1:1 ratio to 1,000 mg IV ferric derisomaltose or placebo. Following randomization, participants underwent baseline assessments and then received IV iron or placebo infusion. Each participant was followed up at months 1 and 3. At each visit, patients underwent clinical review, measurements of hematinics and haemoglobin (Hb), and assessments of physical function and well-being. The primary outcome was exercise capacity using the 6-minute walk test. Secondary objectives included effects on hematinic profiles and Hb concentration, changes in myocardial parameters assessed with speckle tracking echocardiography and change in patients' quality of life. RESULTS: Between October 2016 and April 2018, 55 from 326 individuals from 3 UK centres attended screening and were randomized. The mean (SD) age was 59.6 (11.7) years, 26 (48%) patients were male, the majority were Caucasians (42; 78%), and 32 (59%) were non-smokers. The mean (SD) body mass index was 30.3 (6.5); SF was 66.3 (44.1) µg/L, TS was 20.1 (7.4) % and Hb was 128.7 (10.1) g/L at randomization for the whole group. Mean (SD) serum creatinine was 186.7 (58.6) µmol/L, estimated glomerular filtration rate was 31.1 (9.6) mL/min/1.73 m2 and urinary albumin and protein/creatinine ratios 60.9 (133.3) and 83.8 (128.4) mg/mmol respectively. The mean (SD) C-reactive protein was 5.0 (4.4) mg/L and the mean (SD) 6-minute walk distance at baseline was 401.2 (120.2) m. CONCLUSION: The Iron and the Heart Trial will provide important information on the short-term effects of IV iron treatment in CKD patients with ID without anaemia on measures of exercise capacity, quality of life and mechanistic data on myocardial structure and function. TRIAL REGISTRATION: European Clinical Trials Database (No. 2014-004133-6; REC no. 14/YH/1209; Sponsor ref. R1766).

The relationship between pain, analgesics and survival in patients with advanced cancer; a secondary data analysis of the international European palliative care Cancer symptom study.

PURPOSE: Opioids reduce cancer-related pain but an association with shorter survival is variably reported. AIM: To investigate the relationship between pain, analgesics, cancer and survival within the European Palliative Care Cancer Symptom (EPCCS) study to help inform clinical decision making. METHODS: Secondary analysis of the international prospective, longitudinal EPCCS study which included 1739 adults with advanced, incurable cancer receiving palliative care. In this secondary analysis, for all participants with date of death or last follow up, a multilevel Weibull survival analysis examined whether pain, analgesics, and other relevant variables are associated with time to death. RESULTS: Date of death or last follow-up was available for 1404 patients (mean age 65.7 [SD:12.3];men 50%). Secondary analysis of this group showed the mean survival from baseline was 46.5 (SD:1.5) weeks (95% CI:43.6-49.3). Pain was reported by 76%; 60% were taking opioids, 51% non-opioid analgesics and 24% co-analgesics. Opioid-use was associated with decreased survival in the multivariable model (HR = 1.59 (95% CI:1.38-1.84), p < 0.001). An exploratory subgroup analysis of those with C-reactive protein (CRP) measures (n = 219) indicated higher CRP was associated with poorer survival (p = 0.001). In this model, the strength of relationship between survival and opioid-use weakened (p = 0.029). CONCLUSION: Opioid-use and survival were associated; this relationship weakened in a small sensitivity-testing subgroup analysis adjusting for CRP. Thus, the observed relationship between survival and opioid-use may partly be due to tumour-related inflammation. Larger studies, measuring disease activity, are needed to confirm this finding to more accurately judge the benefits and risks of opioids in advanced progressive disease.

Child mental health and resilience in the context of socioeconomic disadvantage: results from the Born in Bradford cohort study.

Socioeconomic disadvantage has been linked to mental health difficulties in children and adolescents, although many children appear to do well despite exposure to financial adversity in childhood. Our study looked at the effects of family financial difficulty on children's mental health outcomes (n = 636) at 4-5 years in a multi-ethnic UK cohort, the Born in Bradford cohort. We considered potential parent and child variables promoting resilience in this population. Univariate linear regression was used to identify associations between family financial difficulty measured antenatally and child mental health difficulties measured by teacher-rated Strengths and Difficulties (SDQ) scores at 4-5 years. Hierarchical multivariate regression was used to test for potential moderating effects of parent and child factors. Mothers completed the General Health Questionnaire-28, Kessler-6 Questionnaire and questions related to parenting warmth, hostility and confidence. Parent-rated Infant Characteristic Questionnaires and teacher-rated Early Years Foundation Stage scores provided information on child temperament, literacy and physical development as potential moderators. Financial difficulty was associated with worse mental health outcomes in children. High parent warmth, high child literacy scores and physical development scores were all associated with positive child mental health outcomes at 4-5 years. In terms of protective effects, only maternal warmth was found to significantly moderate the relationship between financial difficulty and child mental health difficulties. The current study demonstrates that family financial difficulty is associated with poorer child mental health outcomes in a UK cohort of mothers and their school-aged children. It provides evidence of the positive relationships between warm parenting, child literacy and child physical development with mental health in young children. The study supports the finding that warm parenting moderates the relationship between family financial difficulty and interventions supporting this aspect of parenting may therefore provide particular benefit to children growing up in this context.

An open-label, randomised controlled trial on the effectiveness of the Orve + wrap® versus Forced Air Warming in restoring normothermia in the postanaesthetic care unit.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To determine the clinical effectiveness and safety of the Orve + wrap® thermal blanket. BACKGROUND: Inadvertent perioperative hypothermia is a common problem in postanaesthetic care units and can have significant effects on patients' postoperative morbidity. Despite its commercial availability, there is no clinical evidence on the effectiveness of Orve + wrap®. DESIGN: A single centre prospective, open-label, noninferiority randomised controlled trial. METHODS: Postoperative hypothermic (35.0-35.9°C) patients who had undergone elective surgery were randomised to receive either Orve + wrap® or Forced Air Warming during their PACU stay. Patient temperatures were recorded every 10 min using zero-heat-flux thermometry. This study is reported using CONSORT Extension checklist for noninferiority and equivalence trials. RESULTS: Between December 2016-October 2018, 129 patients were randomised to receive either Orve + wrap® blanket (n = 65, 50.3%) or Forced Air Warming (n = 64, 49.7%). The mean 60-min postoperative temperature of patients receiving Orve + wrap® blanket was 36.2 and 36.3°C for the patients receiving Forced Air Warming. The predefined noninferiority margin of a mean difference in temperature of 0.3°C was not reached between the groups at 60 min. Additionally, there were no statistical differences between adverse event rates across these groups. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of this study, warming patients with the Orve + wrap® was noninferior to Forced Air Warming. There were comparable rates of associated postoperative consequences of warming (shivering, hypotension, arrhythmias or surgical site infections), between the groups. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: The Orve + wrap® potentially provides an alternative warming method to Forced Air Warming for patients requiring short-term postoperative warming. However, there are still a number of unknowns regarding the Orve + wrap® performance and further exploration is required.

Airflow relieves chronic breathlessness in people with advanced disease: An exploratory systematic review and meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Chronic breathlessness is a neglected symptom of advanced diseases. AIM: To examine the effect of airflow for chronic breathlessness relief. DESIGN: Exploratory systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Medline, CINAHL, AMED and Cochrane databases were searched (1985-2018) for observational studies or randomised controlled trials of airflow as intervention or comparator. Selection against predefined inclusion criteria, quality appraisal and data extraction was conducted by two independent reviewers with access to a third for unresolved differences. 'Before and after' breathlessness measures from airflow arms were analysed. Meta-analysis was carried out where possible. RESULTS: In all, 16 of 78 studies (n = 929) were included: 11 randomised controlled trials of oxygen versus medical air, 4 randomised controlled trials and 1 fan cohort study. Three meta-analyses were possible: (1) Fan at rest in three studies (n = 111) offered significant benefit for breathlessness intensity (0-100 mm visual analogue scale and 0-10 numerical rating scale), mean difference -11.17 (95% confidence intervals (CI) -16.60 to -5.74), p = 0.06 I2 64%. (2) Medical air via nasal cannulae at rest in two studies (n = 89) improved breathlessness intensity (visual analogue scale), mean difference -12.0 mm, 95% CI -7.4 to -16.6, p < 0.0001 I2 = 0%. (3) Medical airflow during a constant load exercise test before and after rehabilitation (n = 29) in two studies improved breathlessness intensity (modified Borg scale, 0-10), mean difference -2.9, 95% CI -3.2 to -2.7, p < 0.0001 I2 = 0%. CONCLUSION: Airflow appears to offer meaningful relief of chronic breathlessness and should be considered as an adjunct treatment in the management of breathlessness.

Can C-Reactive Protein Be Used to Predict Acute Septic Arthritis in the Adult Population?

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to establish whether C-reactive protein (CRP) could be used to predict native joint septic arthritis (SA) in the adult population. METHODS: All patients who underwent native joint aspiration in accident and emergency settings between April 2012 and September 2016 were identified from laboratory microbiology records. Patients were divided into three groups for analysis: patients with SA, patients with crystal arthropathy, and patients with normal or osteo/inflammatory arthritic joints. RESULTS: Fifteen patients (7.9%) were deemed to have SA, 18 patients had crystal arthropathy (9.5%), and 157 patients (82.6%) were deemed to have normal or osteo/inflammatory arthritic joints. All of the patients with CRP >200 mg/L had SA. Patients with CRP 90 to 200 mg/L had a mix of crystal arthropathy and SA, and patients with CRP <90 mg/L had either normal or osteo/inflammatory arthritic joints or crystal arthropathy. The mean CRP in patients with a normal or osteo/inflammatory arthritic joint was 25 mg/L. This was compared with 100 mg/L (P ≤ 0.001) in patients with crystal arthropathy and 308 mg/L (P ≤ 0.001) in patients with SA. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated CRP to be a reliable independent marker to help differentiate among SA, crystal arthropathy, and normal/arthritic joints in an adult population. No patients with CRP <90 mg/L had SA.

Palliative care triggers in progressive neurodegenerative conditions: An evaluation using a multi-centre retrospective case record review and principal component analysis.

BACKGROUND: The use of specific triggers has been suggested to help identify patients with progressive neurological disease who would benefit from palliative care. AIM: This study aimed to improve the evidence base for the use of triggers for patients with progressive neurological disease. DESIGN: An evaluation of palliative care services was undertaken using a retrospective case note review of the timing and presence of triggers in the last 2 years of life. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: A total of 12 specialist palliative care units across the United Kingdom provided data from 300 patients: mean patient age 70 years, 50% male, diagnoses included motor neurone disease 58%, Parkinson's disease 17% and Parkinson's Plus syndromes 12%. RESULTS: There was a high burden of triggers - 17 in the last 2 years of life and 10 in the last 6 months of life. The most frequent triggers were deteriorating physical function, complex symptoms and dysphagia. Four factors were found to explain 64% of the total variance: Factor 1 - Deterioration in physical function, dysphagia, significant complex symptoms and pain; Factor 2 - Weight loss and respiratory symptoms; Factor 3 - Recurrent infections and cognitive decline; Factor 4 - Aspiration pneumonia. Cox regression analyses found different triggers were associated with survival from diagnosis versus survival from referral to palliative care. Different triggers were also associated with survival for different neurological conditions. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that there is a high burden of triggers in the last months and years of life and that these could potentially be reduced to fewer components. Prospective studies assessing which triggers are useful for different conditions are now required.

The complex relationship between household income of family caregivers, access to palliative care services and place of death: A national household population survey.

BACKGROUND: Previous work shows that more affluent patients with cancer are more likely to die at home, whereas those dying from non-cancer conditions are more likely to die in hospital. Family caregivers are an important factor in determining place of death. AIM: To investigate associations between family caregivers' household income, patients' access to specialist palliative care and place of patients' death, by level of personal end-of-life care. DESIGN: A cross-sectional community household population survey. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Respondents to the Household Survey for England. RESULTS: One-third of 1265 bereaved respondents had provided personal end-of-life care (caregivers) (30%). Just over half (55%) of decedents accessed palliative care services and 15% died in a hospice. Place of death and access to palliative care were strongly related ( p < 0.001). Palliative care services reduced the proportion of deaths in hospital ( p < 0.001), and decedents accessing palliative care were more likely to die at home than those who did not ( p < 0.001). Respondents' income was not associated with palliative care access ( p = 0.233). Overall, respondents' income and home death were not related ( p = 0.106), but decedents with caregivers in the highest income group were least likely to die at home ( p = 0.069). CONCLUSION: For people who had someone close to them die, decedents' access to palliative care services was associated with fewer deaths in hospital and more home deaths. Respondents' income was unrelated to care recipients' place of death when adjusted for palliative care access. When only caregivers were considered, decedents with caregivers from higher income quartiles were the least likely to die at home. Family caregivers from higher income brackets are likely to be powerful patient advocates. Caregiver information needs must be addressed especially with regard to stage of disease, aim of care and appropriate interventions at the end of life.

The diagnostic test accuracy of rectal examination for prostate cancer diagnosis in symptomatic patients: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men in the UK. NICE guidelines on recognition and referral of suspected cancer, recommend performing digital rectal examination (DRE) on patients with urinary symptoms and urgently referring if the prostate feels malignant. However, this is based on the results of one case control study, so it is not known if DRE performed in primary care is an accurate method of detecting prostate cancer. METHODS: The aim of this review is to ascertain the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of DRE for the detection of prostate cancer in symptomatic patients in primary care. CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL databases were searched in august 2015 for studies in which a DRE was performed in primary care on symptomatic patients and compared against a reference diagnostic procedure. RESULTS: Four studies were included with a total of 3225 patients. The sensitivity and specificity for DRE as a predictor of prostate cancer in symptomatic patients was 28.6 and 90.7%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values were 42.3 and 84.2%, respectively. CONCLUSION: This review found that DRE performed in general practice is accurate, and supports the UK NICE guidelines that patients with a malignant prostate on examination are referred urgently for suspected prostate cancer. Abnormal DRE carried a 42.3% chance of malignancy, above the 3% risk threshold which NICE guidance suggests warrants an urgent referral. However this review questions the benefit of performing a DRE in primary care in the first instance, suggesting that a patient's risk of prostate cancer based on symptoms alone would warrant urgent referral even if the DRE feels normal.

Biological optimization, the Goldilocks principle, and how much is lagom in the preimplantation embryo.

The quiet embryo hypothesis postulates that early embryo viability is associated with a relatively low metabolism (Leese, 2002 BioEssays 24: 845-849). This proposal is re-visited here using retrospective and prospective data on the metabolic activity and kinetics of preimplantation development alongside the concept that an optimal range of such indices and of energetic efficiency influences embryogenesis. It is concluded that these considerations may be rationalized by proposing the existence of a "Goldilocks zone," or as it is known in Sweden, of lagom-meaning "just the right amount"-within which embryos with maximum developmental potential can be categorized. Mol. Reprod. Dev. 83: 748-754, 2016 © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Does the use of specialist palliative care services modify the effect of socioeconomic status on place of death? A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Cancer patients in lower socioeconomic groups are significantly less likely to die at home and experience more barriers to access to palliative care. It is unclear whether receiving palliative care may mediate the effect of socioeconomic status on place of death. AIM: This review examines whether and how use of specialist palliative care may modify the effect of socioeconomic status on place of death. DESIGN: A systematic review was conducted. Eligible papers were selected and the quality appraised by two independent reviewers. Data were synthesised using a narrative approach. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO and Web of Knowledge were searched (1997-2013). Bibliographies were scanned and experts contacted. Papers were included if they reported the effect of both socioeconomic status and use of specialist palliative care on place of death for adult cancer patients. RESULTS: Nine studies were included. All study subjects had received specialist palliative care. With regard to place of death, socioeconomic status was found to have (1) no effect in seven studies and (2) an effect in one study. Furthermore, one study found that the effect of socioeconomic status on place of death was only significant when patients received standard specialist palliative care. When patients received more intense care adapted to their needs, the effect of socioeconomic status on place of death was no longer seen. CONCLUSION: There is some evidence to suggest that use of specialist palliative care may modify the effect of socioeconomic status on place of death.

Has the 'Fast-Track' referral system affected the route of presentation and/or clinical outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer?

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to determine whether the 'Fast-Track' referral system has changed the route by which patients present with colorectal cancer (CRC) and whether the route of presentation has any effect on clinical outcome. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with CRC under the care of two consultant colorectal surgeons between April 2006 and December 2012. The route by which patients presented was categorised as Fast-Track (FT), non-Fast-Track (non-FT) or acute. Outcome variables were operative intent, disease stage and 2- and 5-year survival. RESULTS: A total of 558 patients were identified. One hundred ninety-seven patients (35.3 %) were referred as FT, 108 (19.4 %) presented acutely and 253 patients (45.3 %) presented via other routes (non-FT). Over the study period, the route of presentation did not change significantly (P = 0.135). There was no significant difference between FT and non-FT groups in terms of the proportion of patients undergoing potentially curative surgery (70.6 vs 74.3 %, P = 0.092) or with node-negative disease (48.2 vs 52.2 %, P = 0.796) nor was there any difference in 2-year or 5-year survival (74.1 vs 73.9 %, P = 0.837 and 52.3 vs 53.8 %, P = 0.889, respectively). Patients who presented acutely were less likely to undergo curative resection, had more advanced disease and had worse 2- and 5-year survival. CONCLUSIONS: The Fast-Track referral system has not affected the route by which patients present with CRC nor has it had any effect on clinical outcomes. Alternative strategies are required if the desired improvement in outcomes is to be achieved.

CT head imaging in patients with head injury who present after 24†h of injury: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines used to triage patients with head injury to CT imaging are based on research conducted in populations presenting within 24 h of injury.We aim to compare guideline use, and outcomes, in patients with head injury that undergo CT imaging presenting within, and after 24 h of injury. METHODS: ED trauma CT head scan requests over a period of 6 months were matched to ED records. Case note review of adult patients with head injury that had undergone CT imaging was completed. Logistic regression was used to assess whether presentation after 24 h affected the guideline's ability to predict significant injuries. RESULTS: 650 case records were available for analysis. 8.6% (56/650) showed a traumatic abnormality, 1.5% (10/650) required neurosurgery or died. 15.5% (101/650) of CT scans were for patients presenting after 24 h. 8.4% (46/549) of those presenting within, and 9.9% (10/101) of those presenting after 24 h had traumatic CT abnormalities.The sensitivity of the guidelines for intracranial injuries was 98% (95% CI 87.0% to 99.9%) in those presenting within 24 h and 70% (95% CI 35.4% to 91.9%) in those presenting after 24 h of injury. The presence of a guideline indication statistically predicted significant injury, and this was unaffected by time of presentation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with head injury presenting after 24 h of injury are a clinically significant population. Existing guidelines appear to predict traumatic CT abnormalities irrespective of timing of presentation. However, their sole use in patients presenting after 24 h may result in significant injuries not being identified.

The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS): an instant physiological prognostic indicator of poor outcome in acute pancreatitis.

CONTEXT: The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) is a bedside scoring system that is non-invasive, simple and repeatable to reflect dynamic changes in physiological state. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess accuracy of MEWS and determine an optimal MEWS value in predicting severity in acute pancreatitis (AP). METHODS: A prospective database of consecutive admissions with AP to a single institution was analysed to determine value of MEWS in identifying severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and predicting poor outcome. Receiver operator curves (ROC) were used to determine optimal accuracy. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive values (PPV) were calculated for the optimal MEWS values obtained. RESULTS: One-hundred and 42 patients with AP were included. The optimal highest MEWS per 24 hours period (hMEWS) and mean MEWS per 24 hour period (mMEWS) in predicting SAP as determined by ROC were 2.5 and 1.625 respectively; with hMEWS ≥3 and mMEWS >1 utilised in this cohort as MEWS scores are whole numbers. On admission, sensitivity, specificity, NPV, PPV, and accuracy of hMEWS ≥3 was 95.5%, 90.8%, 99.0%, 65.6% and 92.0%; and for mMWES >1 was 95.5%, 87.5%, 99.0%, 58.3% and 88.7%, both superior than the Imrie score: 31.5%, 92.1%, 88.9%, 40.0% and 83.5%. The accuracy of hMEWS ≥3 and mMEWS >1 increased over the subsequent 72 hours (days 0-2) from 92 to 96%, and 89% to 94%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: MEWS provides a novel, easy, instant, repeatable, reliable prognostic score that may be superior to existing scoring systems. A larger cohort is required to validate these findings.

Analysis of factors predicting mortality of new patients commencing renal replacement therapy 10 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND: The natural history of patients commencing dialysis in East Yorkshire is not well characterised and there is little convincing evidence which has studied the impact of potential factors prior to commencement of renal replacement therapy (RRT) at predicting mortality during dialysis. The aim of this study was to examine the previously published 5-year data on end stage renal disease and co-morbid risk factors for mortality at 10 years. METHODS: An observational cohort study of subjects commencing dialysis in 2001/02 in East Yorkshire with a mean follow up from dialysis initiation of 8.8 years. Predictors of mortality were determined by univariate, multivariate analysis and survival via Kaplan-Meier analysis. Assessment of the utility of the Tangri risk calculator was carried out in addition to slope change in eGFR prior to dialysis commencement. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics and the preferred mode of dialysis remained concordant with the original trial. The mortality rate at the end of the study period was 60% (56/94) with 30% (29) of patients having been transplanted. Highlighted in the 5 year data a significant proportion of mortality was made up of vascular disease and sepsis (71%) but this proportion had decreased (57%) by 10 years. Cardiac disease was the commonest cause of death but notably in 18% of patients, death was related to dialysis or withdrawal of treatment. Vascular disease and diabetes remained independent risk factors and predicative of mortality. Calcium-phosphate product which was associated in the early years with mortality was not in later years. Use of the risk calculator was predictive of commencement of RRT but not mortality but slope change in eGFR was predictive of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Although diabetes and vascular disease remained predictive of mortality, interestingly calcium-phosphate levels are no longer significant and may be a more specific predictor of early cardiac mortality. Slope eGFR changes prior to RRT are a predictor of mortality. We speculate that aggressive management of cardiac risk factors in addition to early transplantation may be key to influencing the impact of survival in this cohort in addition to possible measures to delay renal progression.