Extreme heat reduces host and parasite performance in a butterfly-parasite interaction.

Environmental temperature fundamentally shapes insect physiology, fitness and interactions with parasites. Differential climate warming effects on host versus parasite biology could exacerbate or inhibit parasite transmission, with far-reaching implications for pollination services, biocontrol and human health. Here, we experimentally test how controlled temperatures influence multiple components of host and parasite fitness in monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) and their protozoan parasites Ophryocystis elektroscirrha. Using five constant-temperature treatments spanning 18-34°C, we measured monarch development, survival, size, immune function and parasite infection status and intensity. Monarch size and survival declined sharply at the hottest temperature (34°C), as did infection probability, suggesting that extreme heat decreases both host and parasite performance. The lack of infection at 34°C was not due to greater host immunity or faster host development but could instead reflect the thermal limits of parasite invasion and within-host replication. In the context of ongoing climate change, temperature increases above current thermal maxima could reduce the fitness of both monarchs and their parasites, with lower infection rates potentially balancing negative impacts of extreme heat on future monarch abundance and distribution.

Habitat Specialization by Wildlife Reduces Pathogen Spread in Urbanizing Landscapes.

AbstractUrban areas are expanding globally with far-reaching ecological consequences, including for wildlife-pathogen interactions. Wildlife show tremendous variation in their responses to urbanization; even within a single population, some individuals can specialize on urban or natural habitat types. This specialization could alter pathogen impacts on host populations via changes to wildlife movement and aggregation. Here, we build a mechanistic model to explore how habitat specialization in urban landscapes affects interactions between a mobile host population and a density-dependent specialist pathogen that confers no immunity. We model movement on a network of resource-stable urban sites and resource-fluctuating natural sites, where hosts are urban specialists, natural specialists, or generalists that use both patch types. We find that for generalists, natural and partially urban landscapes produce the highest infection prevalence and mortality, driven by high movement rates at natural sites and high densities at urban sites. However, habitat specialization protects hosts from these negative effects of partially urban landscapes by limiting movement between patch types. These findings suggest that habitat specialization can benefit populations by reducing infectious disease transmission, but by reducing movement between habitat types it could also carry the cost of reducing other movement-related ecosystem functions, such as seed dispersal and pollination.

Parasite dynamics in North American monarchs predicted by host density and seasonal migratory culling.

Insect-pathogen dynamics can show seasonal and inter-annual variations that covary with fluctuations in insect abundance and climate. Long-term analyses are especially needed to track parasite dynamics in migratory insects, in part because their vast habitat ranges and high mobility might dampen local effects of density and climate on infection prevalence. Monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus are commonly infected with the protozoan Ophryocystis elektroscirrha (OE). Because this parasite lowers monarch survival and flight performance, and because migratory monarchs have experienced declines in recent decades, it is important to understand the patterns and drivers of infection. Here we compiled data on OE infection spanning 50 years, from wild monarchs sampled in the United States, Canada and Mexico during summer breeding, fall migrating and overwintering periods. We examined eastern versus western North American monarchs separately, to ask how abundance estimates, resource availability, climate and breeding season length impact infection trends. We further assessed the intensity of migratory culling, which occurs when infected individuals are removed from the population during migration. Average infection prevalence was four times higher in western compared to eastern subpopulations. In eastern North America, the proportion of infected monarchs increased threefold since the mid-2000s. In the western region, the proportion of infected monarchs declined sharply from 2000 to 2015, and increased thereafter. For both eastern and western subpopulations, years with greater summer adult abundance predicted greater infection prevalence, indicating that transmission increases with host breeding density. Environmental variables (temperature and NDVI) were not associated with changes in the proportion of infected adults. We found evidence for migratory culling of infected butterflies, based on declines in parasitism during fall migration. We estimated that tens of millions fewer monarchs reach overwintering sites in Mexico as a result of OE, highlighting the need to consider the parasite as a potential threat to the monarch population. Increases in infection among eastern North American monarchs post-2002 suggest that changes to the host's ecology or environment have intensified parasite transmission. Further work is needed to examine the degree to which human practices, such as mass caterpillar rearing and the widespread planting of exotic milkweed, have contributed to this trend.

Thermal tolerance and environmental persistence of a protozoan parasite in monarch butterflies.

Many parasites have external transmission stages that persist in the environment prior to infecting a new host. Understanding how long these stages can persist, and how abiotic conditions such as temperature affect parasite persistence, is important for predicting infection dynamics and parasite responses to future environmental change. In this study, we explored environmental persistence and thermal tolerance of a debilitating protozoan parasite that infects monarch butterflies. Parasite transmission occurs when dormant spores, shed by adult butterflies onto host plants and other surfaces, are later consumed by caterpillars. We exposed parasite spores to a gradient of ecologically-relevant temperatures for 2, 35, or 93 weeks. We tested spore viability by feeding controlled spore doses to susceptible monarch larvae, and examined relationships between temperature, time, and resulting infection metrics. We also examined whether distinct parasite genotypes derived from replicate migratory and resident monarch populations differed in their thermal tolerance. Finally, we examined evidence for a trade-off between short-term within-host replication and long-term persistence ability. Parasite viability decreased in response to warmer temperatures over moderate-to-long time scales. Individual parasite genotypes showed high heterogeneity in viability, but differences did not cluster by migratory vs. resident monarch populations. We found no support for a negative relationship between environmental persistence and within-host replication, as might be expected if parasites invest in short-term reproduction at the cost of longer-term survival. Findings here indicate that dormant spores can survive for many months under cooler conditions, and that heat dramatically shortens the window of transmission for this widespread and virulent butterfly parasite.

Ecological and evolutionary drivers of haemoplasma infection and bacterial genotype sharing in a Neotropical bat community.

Most emerging pathogens can infect multiple species, underlining the importance of understanding the ecological and evolutionary factors that allow some hosts to harbour greater infection prevalence and share pathogens with other species. However, our understanding of pathogen jumps is based primarily around viruses, despite bacteria accounting for the greatest proportion of zoonoses. Because bacterial pathogens in bats (order Chiroptera) can have conservation and human health consequences, studies that examine the ecological and evolutionary drivers of bacterial prevalence and barriers to pathogen sharing are crucially needed. Here were studied haemotropic Mycoplasma spp. (i.e., haemoplasmas) across a species-rich bat community in Belize over two years. Across 469 bats spanning 33 species, half of individuals and two-thirds of species were haemoplasma positive. Infection prevalence was higher for males and for species with larger body mass and colony sizes. Haemoplasmas displayed high genetic diversity (21 novel genotypes) and strong host specificity. Evolutionary patterns supported codivergence of bats and bacterial genotypes alongside phylogenetically constrained host shifts. Bat species centrality to the network of shared haemoplasma genotypes was phylogenetically clustered and unrelated to prevalence, further suggesting rare-but detectable-bacterial sharing between species. Our study highlights the importance of using fine phylogenetic scales when assessing host specificity and suggests phylogenetic similarity may play a key role in host shifts not only for viruses but also for bacteria. Such work more broadly contributes to increasing efforts to understand cross-species transmission and the epidemiological consequences of bacterial pathogens.

Movement rules determine nomadic species' responses to resource supplementation and degradation.

In environments that vary unpredictably, many animals are nomadic, moving in an irregular pattern that differs from year to year. Exploring the mechanisms of nomadic movement is needed to understand how animals survive in highly variable environments, and to predict behavioural and population responses to environmental change. We developed a network model to identify plausible mechanisms of nomadic animal movement by comparing the performance of multiple movement rules along a continuum from nomadism to residency. Using simulations and analytical results, we explored how different types of habitat modifications (that augment or decrease resource availability) might affect the abundance and movement rates of animals following each of these rules. Movement rules for which departure from patches depended on resource availability and/or competition performed almost equally well and better than residency or uninformed movement under most conditions, even though animals using each rule moved at substantially different rates. Habitat modifications that stabilized resources, either by resource supplementation or degradation, eroded the benefits of informed nomadic movements, particularly for movements based on resource availability alone. These results suggest that simple movement rules can explain nomadic animal movements and determine species' responses to environmental change. In particular, landscape stabilization and supplementation might be useful strategies for promoting populations of resident animals, but would be less beneficial for managing highly mobile species, many of which are threatened by habitat disruption and changes in climate.

Landscape-level toxicant exposure mediates infection impacts on wildlife populations.

Anthropogenic landscape modification such as urbanization can expose wildlife to toxicants, with profound behavioural and health effects. Toxicant exposure can alter the local transmission of wildlife diseases by reducing survival or altering immune defence. However, predicting the impacts of pathogens on wildlife across their ranges is complicated by heterogeneity in toxicant exposure across the landscape, especially if toxicants alter wildlife movement from toxicant-contaminated to uncontaminated habitats. We developed a mechanistic model to explore how toxicant effects on host health and movement propensity influence range-wide pathogen transmission, and zoonotic exposure risk, as an increasing fraction of the landscape is toxicant-contaminated. When toxicant-contaminated habitat is scarce on the landscape, costs to movement and survival from toxicant exposure can trap infected animals in contaminated habitat and reduce landscape-level transmission. Increasing the proportion of contaminated habitat causes host population declines from combined effects of toxicants and infection. The onset of host declines precedes an increase in the density of infected hosts in contaminated habitat and thus may serve as an early warning of increasing potential for zoonotic spillover in urbanizing landscapes. These results highlight how sublethal effects of toxicants can determine pathogen impacts on wildlife populations that may not manifest until landscape contamination is widespread.

Planting gardens to support insect pollinators.

Global insect pollinator declines have prompted habitat restoration efforts, including pollinator-friendly gardening. Gardens can provide nectar and pollen for adult insects and offer reproductive resources, such as nesting sites and caterpillar host plants. We conducted a review and meta-analysis to examine how decisions made by gardeners on plant selection and garden maintenance influence pollinator survival, abundance, and diversity. We also considered characteristics of surrounding landscapes and the impacts of pollinator natural enemies. Our results indicated that pollinators responded positively to high plant species diversity, woody vegetation, garden size, and sun exposure and negatively to the separation of garden habitats from natural sites. Within-garden features more strongly influenced pollinators than surrounding landscape factors. Growing interest in gardening for pollinators highlights the need to better understand how gardens contribute to pollinator conservation and how some garden characteristics can enhance the attractiveness and usefulness of gardens to pollinators. Further studies examining pollinator reproduction, resource acquisition, and natural enemies in gardens and comparing gardens with other restoration efforts and to natural habitats are needed to increase the value of human-made habitats for pollinators.

Siembra jardines para dar soporte a los insectos polinizadores Resumen La declinación mundial de insectos polinizadores ha dado pie a esfuerzos de restauración, incluyendo la jardinería amigable con los polinizadores. Los jardines pueden proporcionar néctar y polen para los insectos adultos y también pueden ofrecer recursos reproductivos, como sitios de anidación y plantas hospederas para las orugas. Realizamos una revisión y un meta-análisis para examinar cómo las decisiones que toman los jardineros relacionadas a la selección de plantas y el mantenimiento del jardín influyen se la supervivencia, abundancia y diversidad de los polinizadores. También consideramos las características de los paisajes vecinos y los impactos de los enemigos naturales de los polinizadores. Nuestros resultados indicaron que los polinizadores respondieron positivamente a la alta diversidad de especies de plantas, la vegetación leñosa, el tamaño del jardín y la exposición al sol, mientras que respondieron negativamente a la separación entre los jardines y los sitios naturales. Las características intrínsecas de los jardines tuvieron una mayor influencia sobre los polinizadores que los factores del paisaje vecino. El creciente interés por la jardinería para polinizadores resalta la necesidad de entender como los jardines contribuyen a la conservación y como algunas características de los jardines pueden incrementar lo útil y atractivo de los jardines para los polinizadores. Se requieren estudios más profundos que examinen la reproducción de los polinizadores, la adquisición de recursos y los enemigos naturales en los jardines, y también que comparen a los jardines con otros esfuerzos de restauración y con los hábitats naturales para incrementar el valor de los hábitats para polinizadores creados por humanos.

The genetics of monarch butterfly migration and warning colouration.

The monarch butterfly, Danaus plexippus, is famous for its spectacular annual migration across North America, recent worldwide dispersal, and orange warning colouration. Despite decades of study and broad public interest, we know little about the genetic basis of these hallmark traits. Here we uncover the history of the monarch's evolutionary origin and global dispersal, characterize the genes and pathways associated with migratory behaviour, and identify the discrete genetic basis of warning colouration by sequencing 101 Danaus genomes from around the globe. The results rewrite our understanding of this classic system, showing that D. plexippus was ancestrally migratory and dispersed out of North America to occupy its broad distribution. We find the strongest signatures of selection associated with migration centre on flight muscle function, resulting in greater flight efficiency among migratory monarchs, and that variation in monarch warning colouration is controlled by a single myosin gene not previously implicated in insect pigmentation.

Multiple transmission routes sustain high prevalence of a virulent parasite in a butterfly host.

Understanding factors that allow highly virulent parasites to reach high infection prevalence in host populations is important for managing infection risks to human and wildlife health. Multiple transmission routes have been proposed as one mechanism by which virulent pathogens can achieve high prevalence, underscoring the need to investigate this hypothesis through an integrated modelling-empirical framework. Here, we examine a harmful specialist protozoan infecting monarch butterflies that commonly reaches high prevalence (50-100%) in resident populations. We integrate field and modelling work to show that a combination of three empirically-supported transmission routes (vertical, adult transfer and environmental transmission) can produce and sustain high infection prevalence in this system. Although horizontal transmission is necessary for parasite invasion, most new infections post-establishment arise from vertical transmission. Our study predicts that multiple transmission routes, coupled with high parasite virulence, can reduce resident host abundance by up to 50%, suggesting that the protozoan could contribute to declines of North American monarchs.

Parasite sharing in wild ungulates and their predators: Effects of phylogeny, range overlap, and trophic links.

Understanding factors that facilitate interspecific pathogen transmission is a central issue for conservation, agriculture, and human health. Past work showed that host phylogenetic relatedness and geographical proximity can increase cross-species transmission, but further work is needed to examine the importance of host traits, and species interactions such as predation, in determining the degree to which parasites are shared between hosts. Here we consider the factors that predict patterns of parasite sharing across a diverse assemblage of 116 wild ungulates (i.e., hoofed mammals in the Artiodactyla and Perissodactyla) and nearly 900 species of micro- and macroparasites, controlling for differences in total parasite richness and host sampling effort. We also consider the effects of trophic links on parasite sharing between ungulates and carnivores. We tested for the relative influence of range overlap, phylogenetic distance, body mass, and ecological dissimilarity (i.e., the distance separating species in a Euclidean distance matrix based on standardized traits) on parasite sharing. We also tested for the effects of variation in study effort as a potential source of bias in our data, and tested whether carnivores reported to feed on ungulates have more ungulate parasites than those that use other resources. As in other groups, geographical range overlap and phylogenetic similarity predicted greater parasite community similarity in ungulates. Ecological dissimilarity showed a weak negative relationship with parasite sharing. Counter to our expectations, differences, not similarity, in host body mass predicted greater parasite sharing between pairs of ungulate hosts. Pairs of well-studied host species showed higher overlap than poorly studied species, although including sampling effort did not reduce the importance of biological traits in our models. Finally, carnivores that feed on ungulates harboured a greater richness of ungulate helminths. Overall, we show that the factors that predict parasite sharing in wild ungulates are similar to those known for other mammal groups, and demonstrate the importance of controlling for heterogeneity in host sampling effort in future analyses of parasite sharing. We also show that ecological interactions, in this case trophic links via predation, can allow sharing of some parasite species among distantly related host species.

The changing ecology of primate parasites: Insights from wild-captive comparisons.

Host movements, including migrations or range expansions, are known to influence parasite communities. Transitions to captivity-a rarely studied yet widespread human-driven host movement-can also change parasite communities, in some cases leading to pathogen spillover among wildlife species, or between wildlife and human hosts. We compared parasite species richness between wild and captive populations of 22 primate species, including macro- (helminths and arthropods) and micro-parasites (viruses, protozoa, bacteria, and fungi). We predicted that captive primates would have only a subset of their native parasite community, and would possess fewer parasites with complex life cycles requiring intermediate hosts or vectors. We further predicted that captive primates would have parasites transmitted by close contact and environmentally-including those shared with humans and other animals, such as commensals and pests. We found that the composition of primate parasite communities shifted in captive populations, especially because of turnover (parasites detected in captivity but not reported in the wild), but with some evidence of nestedness (holdovers from the wild). Because of the high degree of turnover, we found no significant difference in overall parasite richness between captive and wild primates. Vector-borne parasites were less likely to be found in captivity, whereas parasites transmitted through either close or non-close contact, including through fecal-oral transmission, were more likely to be newly detected in captivity. These findings identify parasites that require monitoring in captivity and raise concerns about the introduction of novel parasites to potentially susceptible wildlife populations during reintroduction programs.

Host-pathogen evolutionary signatures reveal dynamics and future invasions of vampire bat rabies.

Anticipating how epidemics will spread across landscapes requires understanding host dispersal events that are notoriously difficult to measure. Here, we contrast host and virus genetic signatures to resolve the spatiotemporal dynamics underlying geographic expansions of vampire bat rabies virus (VBRV) in Peru. Phylogenetic analysis revealed recent viral spread between populations that, according to extreme geographic structure in maternally inherited host mitochondrial DNA, appeared completely isolated. In contrast, greater population connectivity in biparentally inherited nuclear microsatellites explained the historical limits of invasions, suggesting that dispersing male bats spread VBRV between genetically isolated female populations. Host nuclear DNA further indicated unanticipated gene flow through the Andes mountains connecting the VBRV-free Pacific coast to the VBRV-endemic Amazon rainforest. By combining Bayesian phylogeography with landscape resistance models, we projected invasion routes through northern Peru that were validated by real-time livestock rabies mortality data. The first outbreaks of VBRV on the Pacific coast of South America could occur by June 2020, which would have serious implications for agriculture, wildlife conservation, and human health. Our results show that combining host and pathogen genetic data can identify sex biases in pathogen spatial spread, which may be a widespread but underappreciated phenomenon, and demonstrate that genetic forecasting can aid preparedness for impending viral invasions.

Migratory monarchs that encounter resident monarchs show life-history differences and higher rates of parasite infection.

Environmental change induces some wildlife populations to shift from migratory to resident behaviours. Newly formed resident populations could influence the health and behaviour of remaining migrants. We investigated migrant-resident interactions among monarch butterflies and consequences for life history and parasitism. Eastern North American monarchs migrate annually to Mexico, but some now breed year-round on exotic milkweed in the southern US and experience high infection prevalence of protozoan parasites. Using stable isotopes (δ2 H, δ13 C) and cardenolide profiles to estimate natal origins, we show that migrant and resident monarchs overlap during fall and spring migration. Migrants at sites with residents were 13 times more likely to have infections and three times more likely to be reproductive (outside normal breeding season) compared to other migrants. Exotic milkweed might either attract migrants that are already infected or reproductive, or alternatively, induce these states. Increased migrant-resident interactions could affect monarch parasitism, migratory success and long-term conservation.

On the relationship between body condition and parasite infection in wildlife: a review and meta-analysis.

Body condition metrics are widely used to infer animal health and to assess costs of parasite infection. Since parasites harm their hosts, ecologists might expect negative relationships between infection and condition in wildlife, but this assumption is challenged by studies showing positive or null condition-infection relationships. Here, we outline common condition metrics used by ecologists in studies of parasitism, and consider mechanisms that cause negative, positive, and null condition-infection relationships in wildlife systems. We then perform a meta-analysis of 553 condition-infection relationships from 187 peer-reviewed studies of animal hosts, analysing observational and experimental records separately, and noting whether authors measured binary infection status or intensity. Our analysis finds substantial heterogeneity in the strength and direction of condition-infection relationships, a small, negative average effect size that is stronger in experimental studies, and evidence for publication bias towards negative relationships. The strongest predictors of variation in study outcomes are host thermoregulation and the methods used to evaluate body condition. We recommend that studies aiming to assess parasite impacts on body condition should consider host-parasite biology, choose condition measures that can change during the course of infection, and employ longitudinal surveys or manipulate infection status when feasible.

Host Dispersal Responses to Resource Supplementation Determine Pathogen Spread in Wildlife Metapopulations.

Many wildlife species occupy landscapes that vary in the distribution, abundance, and quality of food resources. Increasingly, urbanized and agricultural habitats provide supplemental food resources that can have profound consequences for host distributions, movement patterns, and pathogen exposure. Understanding how host and pathogen dispersal across landscapes is affected by the spatial extent of food-supplemented habitats is therefore important for predicting the consequences for pathogen spread and impacts on host occupancy. Here we develop a generalizable metapopulation model to understand how the relative abundance of provisioned habitats across the landscape and how the host dispersal responses to provisioning and infection influence patch occupancy by hosts and their pathogens. We find that pathogen invasion and landscape-level infection prevalence are greatest when provisioning increases patch attractiveness and disperser production and when infection has minimal costs on dispersal success. Alternatively, if provisioning promotes site fidelity or reduces disperser production, increasing the fraction of food-supplemented habitats can reduce landscape-scale infection prevalence and minimize disease-induced declines in host occupancy. This work highlights the importance of considering how resources and infection jointly influence host dispersal for predicting how changing resource distributions influence the spread of infectious diseases.

Migratory behaviour predicts greater parasite diversity in ungulates.

Long-distance animal movements can increase exposure to diverse parasites, but can also reduce infection risk through escape from contaminated habitats or culling of infected individuals. These mechanisms have been demonstrated within and between populations in single-host/single-parasite interactions, but how long-distance movement behaviours shape parasite diversity and prevalence across host taxa is largely unknown. Using a comparative approach, we analyse the parasite communities of 93 migratory, nomadic and resident ungulate species. We find that migrants have higher parasite species richness than residents or nomads, even after considering other factors known to influence parasite diversity, such as body size and host geographical range area. Further analyses support a novel 'environmental tracking' hypothesis, whereby migration allows parasites to experience environments favourable to transmission year-round. In addition, the social aggregation and large group sizes that facilitate migration might increase infection risk for migrants. By contrast, we find little support for previously proposed hypotheses, including migratory escape and culling, in explaining the relationship between host movement and parasitism in mammals at this cross-species scale. Our findings, which support mechanistic links between long-distance movement and increased parasite richness at the species level, could help predict the effects of future environmental change on parasitism in migratory animals.

Using host species traits to understand the consequences of resource provisioning for host-parasite interactions.

Supplemental food provided to wildlife by human activities can be more abundant and predictable than natural resources, and subsequent changes in wildlife ecology can have profound impacts on host-parasite interactions. Identifying traits of species associated with increases or decreases in infection outcomes with resource provisioning could improve assessments of wildlife most prone to disease risks in changing environments. We conducted a phylogenetic meta-analysis of 342 host-parasite interactions across 56 wildlife species and three broad taxonomic groups of parasites to identify host-level traits that influence whether provisioning is associated with increases or decreases in infection. We predicted dietary generalists that capitalize on novel food would show greater infection in provisioned habitats owing to population growth and food-borne exposure to contaminants and parasite infectious stages. Similarly, species with fast life histories could experience stronger demographic and immunological benefits from provisioning that affect parasite transmission. We also predicted that wide-ranging and migratory behaviours could increase infection risks with provisioning if concentrated and non-seasonal foods promote dense aggregations that increase exposure to parasites. We found that provisioning increased infection with bacteria, viruses, fungi and protozoa (i.e. microparasites) most for wide-ranging, dietary generalist host species. Effect sizes for ectoparasites were also highest for host species with large home ranges but were instead lowest for dietary generalists. In contrast, the type of provisioning was a stronger correlate of infection outcomes for helminths than host species traits. Our analysis highlights host traits related to movement and feeding behaviour as important determinants of whether species experience greater infection with supplemental feeding. These results could help prioritize monitoring wildlife with particular trait profiles in anthropogenic habitats to reduce infectious disease risks in provisioned populations.

Global Mammal Parasite Database version 2.0.

Illuminating the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of parasites is one of the most pressing issues facing modern science, and is critical for basic science, the global economy, and human health. Extremely important to this effort are data on the disease-causing organisms of wild animal hosts (including viruses, bacteria, protozoa, helminths, arthropods, and fungi). Here we present an updated version of the Global Mammal Parasite Database, a database of the parasites of wild ungulates (artiodactyls and perissodactyls), carnivores, and primates, and make it available for download as complete flat files. The updated database has more than 24,000 entries in the main data file alone, representing data from over 2700 literature sources. We include data on sampling method and sample sizes when reported, as well as both "reported" and "corrected" (i.e., standardized) binomials for each host and parasite species. Also included are current higher taxonomies and data on transmission modes used by the majority of species of parasites in the database. In the associated metadata we describe the methods used to identify sources and extract data from the primary literature, how entries were checked for errors, methods used to georeference entries, and how host and parasite taxonomies were standardized across the database. We also provide definitions of the data fields in each of the four files that users can download.

Regional climate on the breeding grounds predicts variation in the natal origin of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico over 38 years.

Addressing population declines of migratory insects requires linking populations across different portions of the annual cycle and understanding the effects of variation in weather and climate on productivity, recruitment, and patterns of long-distance movement. We used stable H and C isotopes and geospatial modeling to estimate the natal origin of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America using over 1000 monarchs collected over almost four decades at Mexican overwintering colonies. Multinomial regression was used to ascertain which climate-related factors best-predicted temporal variation in natal origin across six breeding regions. The region producing the largest proportion of overwintering monarchs was the US Midwest (mean annual proportion = 0.38; 95% CI: 0.36-0.41) followed by the north-central (0.17; 0.14-0.18), northeast (0.15; 0.11-0.16), northwest (0.12; 0.12-0.16), southwest (0.11; 0.08-0.12), and southeast (0.08; 0.07-0.11) regions. There was no evidence of directional shifts in the relative contributions of different natal regions over time, which suggests these regions are comprising the same relative proportion of the overwintering population in recent years as in the mid-1970s. Instead, interannual variation in the proportion of monarchs from each region covaried with climate, as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index and regional-specific daily maximum temperature and precipitation, which together likely dictate larval development rates and food plant condition. Our results provide the first robust long-term analysis of predictors of the natal origins of monarchs overwintering in Mexico. Conservation efforts on the breeding grounds focused on the Midwest region will likely have the greatest benefit to eastern North American migratory monarchs, but the population will likely remain sensitive to regional and stochastic weather patterns.