Total and H-specific growth/differentiation factor 15 levels are unaffected by liraglutide or naltrexone/bupropion administration.

AIM: To investigate growth/differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) levels in response to antiobesity medications, namely, liraglutide (Lira) and naltrexone/bupropion (N/B), in individuals with overweight or obesity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a prospective, non-randomized clinical trial with a two-arm, parallel design. A total of 42 individuals with overweight or obesity without type 1 or type 2 diabetes mellitus were enrolled. The participants received either Lira 3 mg or N/B 32/360 mg, along with diet and exercise, according to comorbidities, cost and method of administration. Participants underwent clinical and laboratory measurements at baseline, as well as at the 3- and 6-month time points. Anthropometric measurements and body composition analysis via bioelectrical impendence analysis were performed. Total blood samples for GDF-15 and H-specific GDF-15 were collected in the fasting state and every 30 min for 3 h after the consumption of a standardized mixed meal. RESULTS: Overall, participants' weight was reduced by 9.29 ± 5.34 kg at Month 3 and 11.52 ± 7.52 kg at Month 6. Total and H-specific GDF-15 levels did not show significant changes during the mixed meal compared to values before the meal when all participants were examined at baseline, and at 3 and 6 month follow-ups. No statistical significance was found when participants were examined by subgroup (Lira vs. N/B). No significant differences between treatment groups in postprandial area under the curve (AUC) or incremental AUC values were found at baseline or in the follow-up months with regard to total and H-specific GDF-15 levels. CONCLUSION: Neither total nor H-specific GDF-15 levels are affected by Lira or N/B treatment in patients with overweight or obesity.

Modification of heat-related effects on mortality by air pollution concentration, at small-area level, in the Attica prefecture, Greece.

BACKGROUND: The independent effects of short-term exposure to increased air temperature and air pollution on mortality are well-documented. There is some evidence indicating that elevated concentrations of air pollutants may lead to increased heat-related mortality, but this evidence is not consistent. Most of these effects have been documented through time-series studies using city-wide data, rather than at a finer spatial level. In our study, we examined the possible modification of the heat effects on total and cause-specific mortality by air pollution at municipality level in the Attica region, Greece, during the warm period of the years 2000 to 2016. METHODS: A municipality-specific over-dispersed Poisson regression model during the warm season (May-September) was used to investigate the heat effects on mortality and their modification by air pollution. We used the two-day average of the daily mean temperature and daily mean PM10, NO2 and 8 hour-max ozone (O3), derived from models, in each municipality as exposures. A bivariate tensor smoother was applied for temperature and each pollutant alternatively, by municipality. Α random-effects meta-analysis was used to obtain pooled estimates of the heat effects at different pollution levels. Heterogeneity of the between-levels differences of the heat effects was evaluated with a Q-test. RESULTS: A rise in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of the municipality-specific temperature distribution resulted in an increase in total mortality of 12.4% (95% Confidence Interval (CI):7.76-17.24) on low PM10 days, and 21.25% (95% CI: 17.83-24.76) on high PM10 days. The increase on mortality was 10.09% (95% CI: - 5.62- 28.41) on low ozone days, and 14.95% (95% CI: 10.79-19.27) on high ozone days. For cause-specific mortality an increasing trend of the heat effects with increasing PM10 and ozone levels was also observed. An inconsistent pattern was observed for the modification of the heat effects by NO2, with higher heat effects estimated in the lower level of the pollutant. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the evidence of elevated heat effects on mortality at higher levels of PM10 and 8 h max O3. Under climate change, any policy targeted at lowering air pollution levels will yield significant public health benefits.

Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities.

BACKGROUND: The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. METHODS: We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less (PM10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration-response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived. RESULTS: On average, an increase of 10 µg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM10 concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.).

Does climatic zone of birth modify the temperature-mortality association of London inhabitants during the warm season? A time-series analysis for 2004-2013.

BACKGROUND: It is known that on days with high temperatures higher mortality is observed and there is a minimum mortality temperature (MMT) point which is higher in places with warmer climate. This indicates some population adaptation to local climate but information on how quickly this adaptation will occur under climate change is lacking. METHODS: To investigate this, we associated daily mortality data with temperature during the warm period in 2004-2013 for London inhabitants born in five climatic zones (UK, Tropical, Sub-tropical, Boreal and Mixed). We fitted Poisson regression with distributed-lag non-linear models for each climatic zone group separately to estimate group-specific exposure-response associations and MMTs. We report relative risks of death comparing the 95th percentile (21 °C) and maximum (25 °C) of the temperature distribution in London with the zone-specific minimum mortality temperature. RESULTS: No heat-related mortality was observed for people born in countries with Sub-tropical and Mixed climates. We observed an increase of 26%, 35% and 39% in the risk of death at 25 °C compared to the MMT in people born in the UK (marine climate), Tropical and Boreal climate respectively. The temperatures with the lowest mortality in these groups ranged from 15.9 to 17.7 °C. DISCUSSION: Our findings imply that people born in different climatic zones do not adapt fully to their new environment within their lifetime. This implies that populations may not adapt readily to climate change and will suffer increased effects from heat. In the presence of climate change, policy makers should be aware of a delayed process of adaptation.

Spatio-temporal associations of air pollutant concentrations, GP respiratory consultations and respiratory inhaler prescriptions: a 5-year study of primary care in the borough of Lambeth, South London.

BACKGROUND: Although the associations of outdoor air pollution exposure with mortality and hospital admissions are well established, few previous studies have reported on primary care clinical and prescribing data. We assessed the associations of short and long-term pollutant exposures with General Practitioner respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions. METHODS: Daily primary care data, for 2009-2013, were obtained from Lambeth DataNet (LDN), an anonymised dataset containing coded data from all patients (1.2 million) registered at general practices in Lambeth, an inner-city south London borough. Counts of respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions by day and Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of residence were constructed. We developed models for predicting daily PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and O3 per LSOA. We used spatio-temporal mixed effects zero inflated negative binomial models to investigate the simultaneous short- and long-term effects of exposure to pollutants on the number of events. RESULTS: The mean concentrations of NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and O3 over the study period were 50.7, 21.2, 15.6, and 49.9 µg/m3 respectively, with all pollutants except NO2 having much larger temporal rather than spatial variability. Following short-term exposure increases to PM10, NO2 and PM2.5 the number of consultations and inhaler prescriptions were found to increase, especially for PM10 exposure in children which was associated with increases in daily respiratory consultations of 3.4% and inhaler prescriptions of 0.8%, per PM10 interquartile range (IQR) increase. Associations further increased after adjustment for weekly average exposures, rising to 6.1 and 1.2%, respectively, for weekly average PM10 exposure. In contrast, a short-term increase in O3 exposure was associated with decreased number of respiratory consultations. No association was found between long-term exposures to PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 and number of respiratory consultations. Long-term exposure to NO2 was associated with an increase (8%) in preventer inhaler prescriptions only. CONCLUSIONS: We found increases in the daily number of GP respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions following short-term increases in exposure to NO2, PM10 and PM2.5. These associations are more pronounced in children and persist for at least a week. The association with long term exposure to NO2 and preventer inhaler prescriptions indicates likely increased chronic respiratory morbidity.

High levels of IL-6 and IL-8 characterize early-on idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis acute exacerbations.

INTRODUCTION: Controversy exists about the pathogenesis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis acute exacerbations (IPF-AEs). According to one hypothesis IPF-AEs represent the development of any etiology diffuse alveolar damage (DAD) upon usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP), whilst other researchers argue that an accelerated phase of the intrinsic fibrotic process of unknown etiology prevails, leading to ARDS. Different cytokines might be involved in both processes. The aim of this study was to assess pro-inflammatory and pro-fibrotic cytokines in the peripheral blood from stable and exacerbated IPF patients. METHODS: Consecutive IPF patients referred to our department were included. Diagnoses of IPF and IPF-AE were based on international guidelines and consensus criteria. The interleukins (IL)-4, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and IL-13 as well asactive transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-ß) were measured in blood from both stable and exacerbated patients on the day of hospital admission for deterioration. Subjects were followed for 12months. Mann-Whitney test as well as Tobit and logistic regression analyses were applied. RESULTS: Among the 41 patients studied, 23 were stable, and 18 under exacerbation; of the latter, 12 patients survived. The IL-6 and IL-8 levels were significantly higher in exacerbated patients (p=0.002 and p=0.046, respectively). An increase in either IL-6 or IL-8 by 1pg/ml increases the odds of death by 5.6% (p=0.021) and 6.7% (p=0.013), respectively, in all patients. No differences were detected for the other cytokines. CONCLUSION: High levels of IL-6 and IL-8 characterize early-on IPF-AEs and an increase in the levels of IL-6 and IL-8 associates with worse outcome in all patients. However, as the most representative pro-fibrotic cytokines, TGF-ß, IL-10, IL-4 and IL-13 were not increased and given the dualistic nature, both pro-inflammatory and pro-fibrotic of IL-6 further studies are necessary to clarify the enigma of IPF-AEs etiopathogenesis.

Platelet to lymphocyte ratio in acute aortic dissection.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation plays an important role in the initiation and progression of acute aortic dissection (AAD). New inflammatory indices derived from full cell blood count and its differential may be associated with increased risk. We evaluated platelet-lymphocyte (PLR), red cell distribution width (RDW) and RDW/PLT's (platelets) (RPR) in AAD. METHODS: We studied 120 consecutive patients with AAD type I admitted for emergency surgery (group I), 121 consecutive patients with aortic aneurysms of the ascending aorta prior to elective repair (group II) and 121 controls (group III), age and sex matched. RESULTS: PLR was significantly higher in group I vs both groups II and III (P < .001). There was an excellent correlation of PLR with neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in all three groups (P < .001 for all). After adjustment for hemoglobin, RDW did not differ but RPR remained significantly higher in group I compared to groups II and III (P < .001). The best cutoff value of PLR to predict dissection was 159 with 53% sensitivity and 86% specificity. No association between PLR, RDW, and RPR and mortality in group I was found. CONCLUSIONS: Indices derived from full cell blood count may provide diagnostic information in patients with AAD; whether these indices may contribute to prognosis assessment should be further investigated.

Does size matter concerning impact of position on oxygenation status in spontaneously breathing patients with unilateral effusion?

BACKGROUND: Inconsistent and contradictory findings have appeared in the literature concerning the impact of body position on oxygenation in pleural effusion. METHODS: We attempted to elucidate whether the size of the pleural effusion in patients with no parenchymal disease is the main determinant of posture-induced alterations in oxygenation parameters. We studied 62 spontaneously breathing patients aged 65.3±7.8 years (mean±SD), of whom 36 had large and massive-sized effusions (Group A) and 26 had small and moderate-sized effusions (Group B). Arterial blood gases were determined in four different body positions: sitting (SIT), supine (SUP), ipsilateral (IPS) and contralateral (CON) to the effusion side, after remaining relaxed for at least 20 min in each position. Separation into groups A and B was deliberately set from the position of the fluid meniscus line on a posteroanterior chest film just above the upper costal margin of the sixth anterior rib. A two-way ANOVA model with outcome variables PaO2, PaCO2 and [A-a] DO2 was used. RESULTS: In both groups the best oxygenation was found in SIT. The worst oxygenation (highest [A-a] DO2 value) occurred in group A in CON compared with IPS (59.4±7.6 vs 49.0±7.5 mm Hg, p<0.001) and in group B in IPS compared with CON (51.0±8.7 vs 39.5±9.2 mm Hg, p<0.001). Also, PaCO2 showed significant differences in both groups in IPS compared with CON (p=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with large-sized effusions exhibit the worst oxygenation when lying on the side contralateral to the effusion, while those with small-sized effusions exhibit the worst oxygenation when lying on the side ipsilateral to the effusion.

Associations between environmental factors and hospital admissions for sickle cell disease.

Sickle cell disease is an increasing global health burden. This inherited disease is characterized by a remarkable phenotypic heterogeneity, which can only partly be explained by genetic factors. Environmental factors are likely to play an important role but studies of their impact on disease severity are limited and their results are often inconsistent. This study investigated associations between a range of environmental factors and hospital admissions of young patients with sickle cell disease in London and in Paris between 2008 and 2012. Specific analyses were conducted for subgroups of patients with different genotypes and for the main reasons for admissions. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models were used to assess the magnitude of the associations and to calculate relative risks. Some environmental factors significantly influence the numbers of hospital admissions of children with sickle cell disease, although the associations identified are complicated. Our study suggests that meteorological factors are more likely to be associated with hospital admissions for sickle cell disease than air pollutants. It confirms previous reports of risks associated with wind speed (risk ratio: 1.06/standard deviation; 95% confidence interval: 1.00-1.12) and also with rainfall (1.06/standard deviation; 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.12). Maximum atmospheric pressure was found to be a protective factor (0.93/standard deviation; 95% confidence interval: 0.88-0.99). Weak or no associations were found with temperature. Divergent associations were identified for different genotypes or reasons for admissions, which could partly explain the lack of consistency in earlier studies. Advice to patients with sickle cell disease usually includes avoiding a range of environmental conditions that are believed to trigger acute complications, including extreme temperatures and high altitudes. Scientific evidence to support such advice is limited and sometimes confusing. This study shows that environmental factors do explain some of the variations in rates of admission to hospital with acute symptoms in sickle cell disease, but the associations are complex, and likely to be specific to different environments and the individual's exposure to them. Furthermore, this study highlights the need for prospective studies with large numbers of patients and standardized protocols across Europe.

Initial size of unilateral pleural effusion determines impact of thoracocentesis on oxygenation.

BACKGROUND: There have been contradicting reports in the literature regarding the impact of pleural fluid aspiration on patients' oxygenation. The aim of this study was to assess the role of the initial size of effusion on post-drainage oxygenation. METHODS: We studied 122 patients, aged (mean±SD) 61.2±16.8 years, with unilateral pleural effusion and no remarkable parenchymal lesion, by determining PaO2, PaCO2 and [A-a] PaO2 just before thoracocentesis (T1), 30 min after its completion (T2) and 48 hours after the procedure (T3). Patients were divided into group A (75 patients) with small and moderate sized effusions and group B (47 patients) with large and massive effusions. The position of the meniscus line on the posteroanterior film, being arbitrarily set at just above the upper costal margin of the sixth anterior rib, was used to divide the two groups. Patients were studied at rest, breathing room air in the sitting position. Repeated measures ANOVA (related samples) and the Friedman test when the normality assumption was violated were used. RESULTS: In group A, at T3, PaO2(mm Hg) showed a statistically significant increase versus T1 (p<0.001) and T2 (p=0.002), while [A-a] PaO2 displayed a statistically significant decrease compared with T1 (p<0.001) and T2 (p=0.001). In group B, at T2, PaO2 presented significant decrease versus T1 (p<0.001) and T3 (p<0.001), while [A-a] PO2 was found to be significantly increased compared with both T1 and T3 (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Patients with smaller effusions showed a small improvement in their oxygenation 48 hours post-thoracocentesis (T3). Patients with larger effusions exhibited a transient reduction in their oxygenation immediately after fluid removal (T2).

Temporal evolution of thoracocentesis-induced changes in spirometry and respiratory muscle pressures.

BACKGROUND: Several studies investigated the effects of thoracocentesis on aspects of respiratory function without generally ensuring absence of coexistent lung pathology or homogeneity in initial size of the effusion. METHODS: We studied 90 patients aged 61.6±15.9 years (mean±SD) separated into a group A with small-sized or medium-sized effusion (A=56 patients) and a group B with large and massive one (B=34 patients). There was no significant lung lesion or cardiovascular pathology. The basic spirometric parameters and maximal respiratory pressures were recorded on three instances: just before thoracocentesis (T1), 30 min after completion of the procedure (T2) and after 48 hours (T3). RESULTS: At T2 vs T1, groups A and B respectively presented significant change (mean±SD) (increase) in forced vital capacity (FVC) of 0.071±0.232 and 0.139±0.224 L, in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) of 0.127±0.231 and 0.201±0.192 L, in FEV1/FVC of 2.8% and 4.9%, in peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) of 0.342±0.482 and 0.383±0.425 L/s, in maximal expiratory pressure (MEP) of 0.049±0.037 and 0.049±0.039 kPa and in maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP) of 0.040±0.041 kPa only in group A while decrease in MIP with significant change of 0.055±0.051 kPa in group B. At T3 vs T2 in groups A and B, there was significant change (decrease) in FEV1/FVC of 2.7% and 4.6% as well as significant change (increase) in MIP of 0.036±0.046 and 0.115±0.060 and in MEP of 0.049±0.043 and 0.070±0.048 kPa. CONCLUSIONS: Thoracocentesis is associated with progressive-small relative to the volume of fluid removed-increases in lung volumes. In larger effusions at T2, a transient decrease in MIP is observed presumably due to temporary geometric distortion of the diaphragm immediately after fluid removal.

Associations of short-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution with cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in London, UK.

OBJECTIVES: There is evidence of adverse associations between short-term exposure to traffic-related pollution and health, but little is known about the relative contribution of the various sources and particulate constituents. METHODS: For each day for 2011-2012 in London, UK over 100 air pollutant metrics were assembled using monitors, modelling and chemical analyses. We selected a priori metrics indicative of traffic sources: general traffic, petrol exhaust, diesel exhaust and non-exhaust (mineral dust, brake and tyre wear). Using Poisson regression models, controlling for time-varying confounders, we derived effect estimates for cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions at prespecified lags and evaluated the sensitivity of estimates to multipollutant modelling and effect modification by season. RESULTS: For single day exposure, we found consistent associations between adult (15-64 years) cardiovascular and paediatric (0-14 years) respiratory admissions with elemental and black carbon (EC/BC), ranging from 0.56% to 1.65% increase per IQR change, and to a lesser degree with carbon monoxide (CO) and aluminium (Al). The average of past 7 days EC/BC exposure was associated with elderly (65+ years) cardiovascular admissions. Indicated associations were higher during the warm period of the year. Although effect estimates were sensitive to the adjustment for other pollutants they remained consistent in direction, indicating independence of associations from different sources, especially between diesel and petrol engines, as well as mineral dust. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that exhaust related pollutants are associated with increased numbers of adult cardiovascular and paediatric respiratory hospitalisations. More extensive monitoring in urban centres is required to further elucidate the associations.

Searching for the best modeling specification for assessing the effects of temperature and humidity on health: a time series analysis in three European cities.

Epidemiological time series studies suggest daily temperature and humidity are associated with adverse health effects including increased mortality and hospital admissions. However, there is no consensus over which metric or lag best describes the relationships. We investigated which temperature and humidity model specification most adequately predicted mortality in three large European cities. Daily counts of all-cause mortality, minimum, maximum and mean temperature and relative humidity and apparent temperature (a composite measure of ambient and dew point temperature) were assembled for Athens, London, and Rome for 6 years between 1999 and 2005. City-specific Poisson regression models were fitted separately for warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) periods adjusting for seasonality, air pollution, and public holidays. We investigated goodness of model fit for each metric for delayed effects up to 13 days using three model fit criteria: sum of the partial autocorrelation function, AIC, and GCV. No uniformly best index for all cities and seasonal periods was observed. The effects of temperature were uniformly shown to be more prolonged during cold periods and the majority of models suggested separate temperature and humidity variables performed better than apparent temperature in predicting mortality. Our study suggests that the nature of the effects of temperature and humidity on mortality vary between cities for unknown reasons which require further investigation but may relate to city-specific population, socioeconomic, and environmental characteristics. This may have consequences on epidemiological studies and local temperature-related warning systems.

Effects of heat waves on mortality: effect modification and confounding by air pollutants.

BACKGROUND: Heat waves and air pollution are both associated with increased mortality. Their joint effects are less well understood. METHODS: We explored the role of air pollution in modifying the effects of heat waves on mortality, within the EuroHEAT project. Daily mortality, meteorologic, and air pollution data from nine European cities for the years 1990-2004 were assembled. We defined heat waves by taking both intensity and duration into account. The city-specific effects of heat wave episodes were estimated using generalized estimating equation models, adjusting for potential confounders with and without inclusion of air pollutants (particles, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide). To investigate effect modification, we introduced an interaction term between heat waves and each single pollutant in the models. Random effects meta-analysis was used to summarize the city-specific results. RESULTS: The increase in the number of daily deaths during heat wave episodes was 54% higher on high ozone days compared with low, among people age 75-84 years. The heat wave effect on high PM10 days was increased by 36% and 106% in the 75-84 year and 85+ year age groups, respectively. A similar pattern was observed for effects on cardiovascular mortality. Effect modification was less evident for respiratory mortality, although the heat wave effect itself was greater for this cause of death. The heat wave effect was smaller (15-30%) after adjustment for ozone or PM10. CONCLUSIONS: The heat wave effect on mortality was larger during high ozone or high PM10 days. When assessing the effect of heat waves on mortality, lack of adjustment for ozone and especially PM10 overestimates effect parameters. This bias has implications for public health policy.

Economic valuation of the mortality benefits of a regulation on SO2 in 20 European cities.

BACKGROUND: Since the 1970s, legislation has led to progress in tackling several air pollutants. We quantify the annual monetary benefits resulting from reductions in mortality from the year 2000 onwards following the implementation of three European Commission regulations to reduce the sulphur content in liquid fuels for vehicles. METHODS: We first compute premature deaths attributable to these implementations for 20 European cities in the Aphekom project by using a two-stage health impact assessment method. We then justify our choice to only consider mortality effects as short-term effects. We rely on European studies when selecting the central value of a life-year estimate (€ 2005 86 600) used to compute the monetary benefits for each of the cities. We also conduct an independent sensitivity analysis as well as an integrated uncertainty analysis that simultaneously accounts for uncertainties concerning epidemiology and economic valuation. RESULTS: The implementation of these regulations is estimated to have postponed 2212 (95% confidence interval: 772-3663) deaths per year attributable to reductions in sulphur dioxide for the 20 European cities, from the year 2000 onwards. We obtained annual mortality benefits related to the implementation of the European regulation on sulphur dioxide of € 2005 191.6 million (95% confidence interval: € 2005 66.9-€ 2005 317.2). CONCLUSION: Our approach is conservative in restricting to mortality effects and to short-term benefits only, thus only providing the lower-bound estimate. Our findings underline the health and monetary benefits to be obtained from implementing effective European policies on air pollution and ensuring compliance with them over time.

Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

A time series study on the effects of heat on mortality and evaluation of heterogeneity into European and Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities: results of EU CIRCE project.

BACKGROUND: The Mediterranean region is particularly vulnerable to the effect of summer temperature.Within the CIRCE project this time-series study aims to quantify for the first time the effect of summer temperature in Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities and compared it with European cities around the Mediterranean basin, evaluating city characteristics that explain between-city heterogeneity. METHODS: The city-specific effect of maximum apparent temperature (Tappmax) was assessed by Generalized Estimation Equations, assuming a linear threshold model. Then, city-specific estimates were included in a random effect meta-regression analysis to investigate the effect modification by several city characteristics. RESULTS: Heterogeneity in the temperature-mortality relationship was observed among cities. Thresholds recorded higher values in the warmest cities of Tunis (35.5°C) and Tel-Aviv (32.8°C) while the effect of Tappmax above threshold was greater in the European cities. In Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities a higher effect was observed among younger age groups (0-14 in Tunis and 15-64 in Tel-Aviv and Istanbul) in contrast with the European cities where the elderly population was more vulnerable. Climate conditions explained most of the observed heterogeneity and among socio-demographic and economic characteristics only health expenditure and unemployment rate were identified as effect modifiers. CONCLUSIONS: The high vulnerability observed in the young populations in Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities represent a major public health problem. Considering the large political and economic changes occurring in this region as well future temperature increase due to climate change, it is important to strengthen research and public health efforts in these Mediterranean countries.

Short-term effects of summer temperatures on mortality in Portugal: a time-series analysis.

Heat stress is a current public health concern during the warm months in many urban areas. Climate change and increasing urbanization are expected to worsen this concern, with some locations being more vulnerable than others. The aim of this study was to determine the short-term effect of heat on mortality in the two most populated cities in Portugal: Lisbon and Oporto. Each city was assessed for specific heat stress threshold above which heat-related mortality becomes significant. A Poisson generalized estimating equations (GEE) model was used to estimate the impact of maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and maximum temperature (Tmax) on daily mortality, in the summer season. Data show ATmax thresholds of 30.4°C for Lisbon and 26.3°C for Oporto, and Tmax thresholds of 29.3°C and 25.0°C, respectively. For every 1°C elevation in ATmax above the city-specific threshold, all-cause mortality rate rose by 7.13% (95% CI: 5.9; 8.4) in Lisbon and 4.31% (95% CI: 3.2; 5.4) in Oporto. The Tmax threshold increases were 5.6% (95% CI: 4.6; 6.6) in Lisbon and 3% (95% CI: 2.0, 3.9) in Oporto. In both cities, stronger associations were found for respiratory diseases and the elderly group was the most vulnerable. This study confirmed that elevated temperatures have a considerable impact on daily mortality frequency in the two most urbanized areas in Portugal. Our results also provide useful data for policymakers to better prepare local actions to mitigate and reduce the health risks associated with high temperatures.

Comparing "causal" and "traditional" approaches in the association of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution on mortality: How sensitive are the results?

BACKGROUND: Few comparisons between causal inference and traditional approaches have been performed. We applied "causal" and "traditional" methods to investigate the association between long-term air pollution exposure (PM2.5 and NO2) and mortality. METHODS: We analyzed pooled data from eight well-characterized cohorts and one administrative cohort. We defined the generalized propensity score (GPS) as the conditional likelihood of exposure given confounders, and derived corresponding inverse-probability weights (IPW). We applied Cox-proportional hazard models weighted by IPW, adjusted for GPS, and directly adjusting for all confounders. RESULTS: In IPW models, PM2.5 5 µg/m3 increases were associated with hazard ratios (HR) = 1.141 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.107, 1.176) and 1.050 (1.014, 1.088) in the pooled and administrative cohorts. Corresponding estimates for traditional Cox models were 1.132 (1.107, 1.158) and 1.057 (1.025, 1.089). Almost identical results were found for all approaches and both pollutants, when unbalanced covariates were adjusted for in causal models. CONCLUSIONS: Traditional and causal approaches provided consistent associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality.

Assessing heat effects on respiratory mortality and location characteristics as modifiers of heat effects at a small area scale in Central-Northern Europe.

Background: Heat effects on respiratory mortality are known, mostly from time-series studies of city-wide data. A limited number of studies have been conducted at the national level or covering non-urban areas. Effect modification by area-level factors has not been extensively investigated. Our study assessed the heat effects on respiratory mortality at a small administrative area level in Norway, Germany, and England and Wales, in the warm period (May-September) within 1996-2018. Also, we examined possible effect modification by several area-level characteristics in the framework of the EU-Horizon2020 EXHAUSTION project. Methods: Daily respiratory mortality counts and modeled air temperature data were collected for Norway, Germany, and England and Wales at a small administrative area level. The temperature-mortality association was assessed by small area-specific Poisson regression allowing for overdispersion, using distributed lag non-linear models. Estimates were pooled at the national level and overall using a random-effect meta-analysis. Age- and sex-specific models were also applied. A multilevel random-effects model was applied to investigate the modification of the heat effects by area-level factors. Results: A rise in temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile was associated with a 27% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 19%, 34%) increase in respiratory mortality, with higher effects for females. Increased population density and PM2.5 concentrations were associated with stronger heat effects on mortality. Conclusions: Our study strengthens the evidence of adverse heat effects on respiratory mortality in Northern Europe by identifying vulnerable subgroups and subregions. This may contribute to the development of targeted policies for adaptation to climate change.