A novel clinical risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM risk-SCD).

AIMS: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young adults. Current risk algorithms provide only a crude estimate of risk and fail to account for the different effect size of individual risk factors. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new SCD risk prediction model that provides individualized risk estimates. METHODS AND RESULTS: The prognostic model was derived from a retrospective, multi-centre longitudinal cohort study. The model was developed from the entire data set using the Cox proportional hazards model and internally validated using bootstrapping. The cohort consisted of 3675 consecutive patients from six centres. During a follow-up period of 24 313 patient-years (median 5.7 years), 198 patients (5%) died suddenly or had an appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shock. Of eight pre-specified predictors, age, maximal left ventricular wall thickness, left atrial diameter, left ventricular outflow tract gradient, family history of SCD, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and unexplained syncope were associated with SCD/appropriate ICD shock at the 15% significance level. These predictors were included in the final model to estimate individual probabilities of SCD at 5 years. The calibration slope was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.08), C-index was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.72), and D-statistic was 1.07 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.32). For every 16 ICDs implanted in patients with ≥4% 5-year SCD risk, potentially 1 patient will be saved from SCD at 5 years. A second model with the data set split into independent development and validation cohorts had very similar estimates of coefficients and performance when externally validated. CONCLUSION: This is the first validated SCD risk prediction model for patients with HCM and provides accurate individualized estimates for the probability of SCD using readily collected clinical parameters.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy sudden cardiac death risk algorithms for implantable cardioverter defibrillator decision-making.

AIMS: To conduct a contemporary cost-effectiveness analysis examining the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) for primary prevention in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). METHODS: A discrete-time Markov model was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of different ICD decision-making rules for implantation. Several scenarios were investigated including the reference scenario of implantation rates according to observed real world practice. A 12-year time horizon with an annual cycle length was used. Transition probabilities used in the model were obtained using Bayesian analysis. The study has been reported according to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. RESULTS: Using a 5-year SCD risk threshold of 6% was cheaper than current practice and has marginally better total quality adjusted life years (QALYs). This is the most cost-effective of the options considered, with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of £834 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses highlighted that this decision is largely driven by what health related quality of life (HRQL) is attributed to ICD patients and time horizon. CONCLUSION: We present a timely new perspective on HCM ICD cost-effectiveness, using methods reflecting real-world practice. While we have shown that a 6% 5-year SCD risk cut-off provides the best cohort stratification to aid ICD decision-making, this will also be influenced by the particular values of costs and HRQL for subgroups or at a local level. The process of explicitly demonstrating the main factors which drive conclusions from such an analysis will help to inform shared decision-making in this complex area for all stakeholders concerned.

Outcomes of Patients With Catecholaminergic Polymorphic Ventricular Tachycardia Treated With ß-Blockers.

Importance: Patients with catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) may experience life-threatening arrhythmic events (LTAEs) despite ß-blocker treatment. Further complicating management, the role of implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) in CPVT is debated. Objective: To investigate the long-term outcomes of patients with RYR2 CPVT treated with ß-blockers only and the cost to benefit ratio of ICD. Design, Settings, and Participants: This prospective cohort study conducted from January 1988 to October 2020 with a mean (SD) follow-up of 9.4 (7.5) years included patients who were referred to the Molecular Cardiology Clinics of ICS Maugeri Hospital, Pavia, Italy. Participants included consecutive patients with CPVT who were carriers of a pathogenic or likely pathogenic RYR2 variant with long-term clinical follow-up. Exposures: Treatment with selective and nonselective ß-blocker only and ICD implant when indicated. Main Outcome and Measures: The main outcome was the occurrence of the first LTAE while taking a ß-blocker. LTAE was defined as a composite of 3 hard end points: sudden cardiac death, aborted cardiac arrest, and hemodynamically nontolerated ventricular tachycardia. Results: The cohort included 216 patients with RYR2 CPVT (121 of 216 female [55%], median [IQR] age 14, [9-30] years). During a mean (SD) follow-up of 9.4 (7.5) years taking ß-blockers only, 28 of 216 patients (13%) experienced an LTAE (annual rate, 1.9%; 95% CI, 1.3-2.7). In multivariable analysis, experiencing either an LTAE (hazard ratio [HR], 3.3; 95% CI, 1.2-8.9; P = .02) or syncope before diagnosis (HR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.8-11.1; P = .001) and carrying a C-terminal domain variant (HR, 18.1; 95% CI, 4.1-80.8; P < .001) were associated with an increased LTAE risk during ß-blocker therapy only. The risk of LTAE among those taking selective ß-blockers vs nadolol was increased 6-fold (HR, 5.8; 95% CI, 2.1-16.3; P = .001). Conversely, no significant difference was present between propranolol and nadolol (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.4-7.3; P = .44). An ICD was implanted in 79 of 216 patients (37%) who were followed up for a mean (SD) of 8.6 (6.3) years. At the occurrence of LTAE, ICD carriers were more likely to survive (18 of 18 [100%]) than non-ICD carriers (6 of 10 [60%]; P = .01). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, selective ß-blockers were associated with a higher risk of LTAE as compared with nadolol. Independently from treatment, LTAE and syncope before diagnosis and C-terminal domain variants identified patients at higher risk of ß-blocker failure, and the ICD was associated with reduced mortality in high-risk patients with CPVT.

Mortality Among Referral Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy vs the General European Population.

Importance: It is unclear whether hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) conveys excess mortality when compared with the general population. Objective: To compare the survival of patients with HCM with that of the general European population. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study of 4893 consecutive adult patients with HCM presenting at 7 European referral centers between 1980 and 2013. The data were analyzed between April 2018 and August 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Survival was compared using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) calculated with data from Eurostat, stratified by study period, country, sex, and age, and using a composite end point in the HCM cohort of all-cause mortality, aborted sudden cardiac death, and heart transplant. Results: Of 4893 patients with HCM, 3126 (63.9%) were male, and the mean (SD) age at presentation was 49.2 (16.4) years. During a median follow-up of 6.2 years (interquartile range, 3.1-9.8 years), 721 patients (14.7%) reached the composite end point. Compared with the general population, patients with HCM had excess mortality throughout the age spectrum (SMR, 2.0, 95% CI, 1.48-2.63). Excess mortality was highest among patients presenting prior to the year 2000 but persisted in the cohort presenting between 2006 and 2013 (SMR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.55-2.18). Women had higher excess mortality than men (SMR, 2.66; 95% CI, 2.38-2.97; vs SMR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.52-1.85; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients referred to European specialty centers, HCM was associated with significant excess mortality through the life course. Although there have been improvements in survival with time, potentially reflecting improved treatments for HCM, these findings highlight the need for more research into the causes of excess mortality among patients with HCM and for better risk stratification.

Natural History and Risk Stratification in Andersen-Tawil Syndrome Type 1.

BACKGROUND: Andersen-Tawil Syndrome type 1 (ATS1) is a rare arrhythmogenic disorder, caused by loss-of-function mutations in the KCNJ2 gene. We present here the largest cohort of patients with ATS1 with outcome data reported. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to define the risk of life-threatening arrhythmic events (LAE), identify predictors of such events, and define the efficacy of antiarrhythmic therapy in patients with ATS1. METHODS: Clinical and genetic data from consecutive patients with ATS1 from 23 centers were entered in a database implemented at ICS Maugeri in Pavia, Italy, and pooled for analysis. RESULTS: We enrolled 118 patients with ATS1 from 57 families (age 23 ± 17 years at enrollment). Over a median follow-up of 6.2 years (interquartile range: 2.7 to 16.5 years), 17 patients experienced a first LAE, with a cumulative probability of 7.9% at 5 years. An increased risk of LAE was associated with a history of syncope (hazard ratio [HR]: 4.54; p = 0.02), with the documentation of sustained ventricular tachycardia (HR 9.34; p = 0.001) and with the administration of amiodarone (HR: 268; p < 0.001). The rate of LAE without therapy (1.24 per 100 person-years [py]) was not reduced by beta-blockers alone (1.37 per 100 py; p = 1.00), or in combination with Class Ic antiarrhythmic drugs (1.46 per 100 py, p = 1.00). CONCLUSIONS: Our data demonstrate that the clinical course of patients with ATS1 is characterized by a high rate of LAE. A history of unexplained syncope or of documented sustained ventricular tachycardia is associated with a higher risk of LAE. Amiodarone is proarrhythmic and should be avoided in patients with ATS1.

Effectiveness of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guideline on sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: In 2014, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) recommended the use of a novel risk prediction model (HCM Risk-SCD) to guide use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). We sought to determine the performance of HCM Risk-SCD by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of articles reporting on the prevalence of SCD within 5 years of evaluation in low, intermediate and high-risk patients as defined by the 2014 guidelines (predicted risk <4%, 4%-<6% and ≥6%, respectively). METHODS: The protocol was registered with PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42017064203). MEDLINE and manual searches for papers published from October 2014 to December 2017 were performed. Longitudinal, observational cohorts of unselected adult patients, without history of cardiac arrest were considered. The original HCM Risk-SCD development study was included a priori. Data were pooled using a random effects model. RESULTS: Six (0.9%) out of 653 independent publications identified by the initial search were included. The calculated 5-year risk of SCD was reported in 7291 individuals (70% low, 15% intermediate; 15% high risk) with 184 (2.5%) SCD endpoints within 5 years of baseline evaluation. Most SCD endpoints (68%) occurred in patients with an estimated 5-year risk of ≥4% who formed 30% of the total study cohort. Using the random effects method, the pooled prevalence of SCD endpoints was 1.01% (95% CI 0.52 to 1.61) in low-risk patients, 2.43% (95% CI 1.23 to 3.92) in intermediate and 8.4% (95% CI 6.68 to 10.25) in high-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis demonstrates that HCM Risk-SCD provides accurate risk estimations that can be used to guide ICD therapy in accordance with the 2014 ESC guidelines. REGISTRATION NUMBER: PROSPERO CRD42017064203;Pre-results.

Development of a Novel Risk Prediction Model for Sudden Cardiac Death in Childhood Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM Risk-Kids).

Importance: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most common mode of death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but there is no validated algorithm to identify those at highest risk. Objective: To develop and validate an SCD risk prediction model that provides individualized risk estimates. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prognostic model was developed from a retrospective, multicenter, longitudinal cohort study of 1024 consecutively evaluated patients aged 16 years or younger with HCM. The study was conducted from January 1, 1970, to December 31, 2017. Exposures: The model was developed using preselected predictor variables (unexplained syncope, maximal left-ventricular wall thickness, left atrial diameter, left-ventricular outflow tract gradient, and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia) identified from the literature and internally validated using bootstrapping. Main Outcomes and Measures: A composite outcome of SCD or an equivalent event (aborted cardiac arrest, appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy, or sustained ventricular tachycardia associated with hemodynamic compromise). Results: Of the 1024 patients included in the study, 699 were boys (68.3%); mean (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 11 (7-14) years. Over a median follow-up of 5.3 years (IQR, 2.6-8.3; total patient years, 5984), 89 patients (8.7%) died suddenly or had an equivalent event (annual event rate, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.15-1.92). The pediatric model was developed using preselected variables to predict the risk of SCD. The model's ability to predict risk at 5 years was validated; the C statistic was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72), and the calibration slope was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.59-1.38). For every 10 implantable cardioverter defibrillators implanted in patients with 6% or more of a 5-year SCD risk, 1 patient may potentially be saved from SCD at 5 years. Conclusions and Relevance: This new, validated risk stratification model for SCD in childhood HCM may provide individualized estimates of risk at 5 years using readily obtained clinical risk factors. External validation studies are required to demonstrate the accuracy of this model's predictions in diverse patient populations.

Predictors of atrial fibrillation in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

OBJECTIVES: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The primary aim of this study (HCM Risk-AF) was to determine the predictors of AF in a large multicentre cohort of patients with HCM. Exploratory analyses were performed to investigate the association between AF and survival and the efficacy of antiarrhythmic therapy in maintaining sinus rhythm (SR). METHODS: A retrospective, longitudinal cohort of patients recruited between 1986 and 2008 in seven centres was used to develop multivariable Cox regression models fitted with preselected predictors. HCM was defined as unexplained hypertrophy (maximum left ventricular wall thickness of ≥15 mm or in accordance with published criteria for the diagnosis of familial disease). 28% of patients (n=1171) had coexistent hypertension. The primary end point was paroxysmal, permanent or persistent AF detected on ECG, Holter monitoring or implantable device interrogation. RESULTS: Of the 4248 patients with HCM without pre-existing AF, 740 (17.4%) reached the primary end point. Multivariable Cox regression revealed an association between AF and female sex, age, left atrial diameter, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, hypertension and vascular disease. The proportion of patients with cardiovascular death at 10 years was 4.9% in the SR group and 10.9% in the AF group (difference in proportions=5.9%; 95% CI (4.1% to 7.8%)). The proportion of patients with non-cardiovascular death at 10 years was 3.2% in the SR group and 5.9% in the AF group (difference in proportions=2.8%; 95% CI (0.1% to 4.2%)). An intention-to-treat propensity score analysis demonstrated that ß-blockers, calcium channel antagonists and disopyramide initially maintained SR during follow-up, but their protective effect diminished with time. Amiodarone therapy did not prevent AF during follow-up. CONCLUSION: This study shows that patients with HCM who are at risk of AF development can be identified using readily available clinical parameters. The development of AF is associated with a poor prognosis but there was no evidence that antiarrhythmic therapy prevents AF in the long term.

Inverted U-Shaped Relation Between the Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death and Maximal Left Ventricular Wall Thickness in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD). Some studies have shown an association between risk of sudden death and left ventricular maximal wall thickness (MWT), but there are few data in patients with extreme hypertrophy. The aim of this study was to determine the relation between MWT and the risk of SCD. METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a multicenter, retrospective, longitudinal cohort study of 3673 adult (≥16 years) patients, previously used to develop and validate a risk prediction model for SCD (HCM Risk-SCD [hypertrophic cardiomyopathy risk-SCD]). There was an inverted U-shaped relation between MWT and the estimated 5-year risk of SCD. In patients with MWT≥35 mm (n=47; mean age, 33 years; 81% men), there was a single SCD end point (annual rate, 0.2%; 95% confidence interval, 0.03-1.60) and 3 additional cardiovascular events during a median follow-up of 9.5 years. Compared with patients with MWT≤14 mm, those with MWT≥35 mm did not have a higher risk for SCD (hazard ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.03-1.65), cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.26-1.67), or all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.32-1.69). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of SCD has a complex, nonlinear relationship to MWT. The pathophysiological mechanisms behind this observation require further study but implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation should not be guided solely on the severity of left ventricular hypertrophy.

Prediction of thrombo-embolic risk in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM Risk-CVA).

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and thrombo-embolism (TE) are associated with reduced survival in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but the absolute risk of TE in patients with and without AF is unclear. The primary aim of this study was to derive and validate a model for estimating the risk of TE in HCM. Exploratory analyses were performed to determine predictors of TE, the performance of the CHA2 DS2 -VASc score, and outcome with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective, longitudinal cohort of seven institutions was used to develop multivariable Cox regression models fitted with pre-selected predictors. Bootstrapping was used for validation. Of 4821 HCM patients recruited between 1986 and 2008, 172 (3.6%) reached the primary endpoint of cerebrovascular accident (CVA), transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or systemic peripheral embolus within 10 years. A total of 27.5% of patients had a CHA2 DS2 -VASc score of 0, of whom 9.8% developed TE during follow-up. Cox regression revealed an association between TE and age, AF, the interaction between age and AF, TE prior to first evaluation, NYHA class, left atrial (LA) diameter, vascular disease, and maximal LV wall thickness. There was a curvilinear relationship between LA size and TE risk. The model predicted TE with a C-index of 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.80] and the D-statistic was 1.30 (95% CI 1.05-1.56). VKA treatment was associated with a 54.8% (95% CI 31-97%, P = 0.037) relative risk reduction in HCM patients with AF. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that the risk of TE in HCM patients can be identified using a small number of simple clinical features. LA size, in particular, should be monitored closely, and the assessment and treatment of conventional vascular risk factors should be routine practice in older patients. Exploratory analyses show for the first time evidence for a reduction of TE with VKA treatment. The CHA2 DS2 -VASc score does not appear to correlate well with the clinical outcome in patients with HCM and should not be used to assess TE risk in this population.