Synthetic vulnerability assessment to inform climate-change adaptation along an urbanized coast of Shenzhen, China.

Coastal zones are increasingly threatened by stressors from both climate change and human activities. Vulnerability assessment is central to the implementation of interventions for adapting climate change. However, synthetic vulnerability based on an integrative analysis of ecosystem service and socioeconomic characteristics in urban coastal zones with tightly coupled human-nature interactions is not fully understood. Based on the Coastal Vulnerability model of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) tool, a holistic framework for assessing coastal vulnerability to multiple hazards (sea level rise, waves and storm surge) was developed by integrating ecological, physical and socioeconomic factors into a single spatial representation and applied to the coast of Shenzhen, China. Based on the levels of biophysical exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of coastal communities, a three-dimensional decision matrix was proposed for planning location-specific interventions. Results show that approximately 15% of the coastline were categorized as having high vulnerability. Spatial vulnerability heterogeneity was found within and across the coastal districts, with Yantian grouped into the most vulnerable district. The biophysical exposure has greater influences on the overall vulnerability than either sensitivity or adaptive capacity. This study highlights the significance of complex interactions between natural ecosystems and socioeconomic conditions in driving vulnerability and suggests that combined natural-based defenses and socioeconomic factors contribute to lower vulnerability. The results can help decision-makers prioritize coastal zones for interventions and identifying adaptive strategies that target drivers of vulnerability.

Embedding ecosystem services in coastal planning leads to better outcomes for people and nature.

Recent calls for ocean planning envision informed management of social and ecological systems to sustain delivery of ecosystem services to people. However, until now, no coastal and marine planning process has applied an ecosystem-services framework to understand how human activities affect the flow of benefits, to create scenarios, and to design a management plan. We developed models that quantify services provided by corals, mangroves, and seagrasses. We used these models within an extensive engagement process to design a national spatial plan for Belize's coastal zone. Through iteration of modeling and stakeholder engagement, we developed a preferred plan, currently under formal consideration by the Belizean government. Our results suggest that the preferred plan will lead to greater returns from coastal protection and tourism than outcomes from scenarios oriented toward achieving either conservation or development goals. The plan will also reduce impacts to coastal habitat and increase revenues from lobster fishing relative to current management. By accounting for spatial variation in the impacts of coastal and ocean activities on benefits that ecosystems provide to people, our models allowed stakeholders and policymakers to refine zones of human use. The final version of the preferred plan improved expected coastal protection by >25% and more than doubled the revenue from fishing, compared with earlier versions based on stakeholder preferences alone. Including outcomes in terms of ecosystem-service supply and value allowed for explicit consideration of multiple benefits from oceans and coasts that typically are evaluated separately in management decisions.

Evidence-based target setting informs blue carbon strategies for nationally determined contributions.

The magnitude and pace of global climate change demand ambitious and effective implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Nature-based solutions present an efficient approach to achieving mitigation, adaptation and resilience goals. Yet few nations have quantified the diverse benefits of nature-based solutions to evaluate and select ecosystem targets for their NDCs. Here we report on Belize's pursuit of innovative, evidence-based target setting by accounting for multiple benefits of blue carbon strategies. Through quantification of carbon storage and sequestration and optimization of co-benefits, we explore time-bound targets and prioritize locations for mangrove protection and restoration. We find increases in carbon benefits with larger mangrove investments, while fisheries, tourism and coastal risk-reduction co-benefits grow initially and then plateau. We identify locations, currently lacking protected status, where prioritizing blue carbon strategies would provide the greatest delivery of co-benefits to communities. These findings informed Belize's updated NDCs to include an additional 12,000 ha of mangrove protection and 4,000 ha of mangrove restoration, respectively, by 2030. Our study serves as an example for the more than 150 other countries that have the opportunity to enhance greenhouse gas sequestration and climate adaptation by incorporating blue carbon strategies that provide multiple societal benefits into their NDCs.

Coastal vulnerability to climate change in China's Bohai Economic Rim.

Climate change and human activities exert a wide range of stressors on urban coastal areas. Synthetical assessment of coastal vulnerability is crucial for effective interventions and long-term planning. However, there have been few studies based on integrative analyses of ecological and physical characteristics and socioeconomic conditions in urban coastal areas. This study developed a holistic framework for assessing coastal vulnerability from three dimensions - biophysical exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity - and applied it to the coast of Bohai Economic Rim, an extensive and important development zone in China. A composite vulnerability index (CVI) was developed for every 1 km2 segment of the total 5627 km coastline and the areas that most prone to coastal hazards were identified by mapping the distribution patterns of the CVIs in the present and under future climate change scenarios. The CVIs show a spatial heterogeneity, with higher values concentrated along the southwestern and northeastern coasts and lower values concentrated along the southern coasts. Currently, 20% of the coastlines with approximately 350,000 people are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards. With sea-level rises under the future scenarios of the year 2100, more coastlines will be highly vulnerable, and the amount of highly-threatened population was estimated to increase by 13-24%. Among the coastal cities, Dongying was categorized as having the highest vulnerability, mainly due to poor transportation and medical services and low GDP per capita, which contribute to low adaptive capacity. Our results can benefit decision-makers by highlighting prioritized areas and identifying the most important determinants of priority, facilitating location-specific interventions for climate-change adaptation and sustainable coastal management.

Social Factors Key to Landscape-Scale Coastal Restoration: Lessons Learned from Three U.S. Case Studies.

In the United States, extensive investments have been made to restore the ecological function and services of coastal marine habitats. Despite a growing body of science supporting coastal restoration, few studies have addressed the suite of societally enabling conditions that helped facilitate successful restoration and recovery efforts that occurred at meaningful ecological (i.e., ecosystem) scales, and where restoration efforts were sustained for longer (i.e., several years to decades) periods. Here, we examined three case studies involving large-scale and long-term restoration efforts including the seagrass restoration effort in Tampa Bay, Florida, the oyster restoration effort in the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland and Virginia, and the tidal marsh restoration effort in San Francisco Bay, California. The ecological systems and the specifics of the ecological restoration were not the focus of our study. Rather, we focused on the underlying social and political contexts of each case study and found common themes of the factors of restoration which appear to be important for maintaining support for large-scale restoration efforts. Four critical elements for sustaining public and/or political support for large-scale restoration include: (1) resources should be invested in building public support prior to significant investments into ecological restoration; (2) building political support provides a level of significance to the recovery planning efforts and creates motivation to set and achieve meaningful recovery goals; (3) recovery plans need to be science-based with clear, measurable goals that resonate with the public; and (4) the accountability of progress toward reaching goals needs to be communicated frequently and in a way that the general public comprehends. These conclusions may help other communities move away from repetitive, single, and seemingly unconnected restoration projects towards more large-scale, bigger impact, and coordinated restoration efforts.

Direct and indirect effects of giant kelp determine benthic community structure and dynamics.

Indirect facilitation can occur when a species positively affects another via the suppression of a shared competitor. In giant kelp forests, shade from the canopy of the giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, negatively affects understory algae, which compete with sessile invertebrates for space. This raises the possibility that giant kelp indirectly facilitates sessile invertebrates, via suppression of understory algae. We evaluated the effect of giant kelp on the relative abundance of algae and invertebrates by experimentally manipulating kelp abundance on large artificial reefs located off San Clemente, California, USA. The experiments revealed a negative effect of giant kelp on both light availability and understory algal abundance and a positive effect on the abundance of sessile invertebrates, which was consistent with an indirect effect mediated by shade from the kelp canopy. The importance of these processes to temporal variability in benthic community structure was evaluated at 16 locations on natural reefs off Santa Barbara, California, over an eight-year period. Interannual variability in the abundance of understory algae and in the abundance of sessile invertebrates was significantly and positively related to interannual variability in the abundance of giant kelp. Analysis of these observational data using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) indicated that the magnitude of the indirect effect of giant kelp on invertebrates was six times larger than the direct effect on invertebrates. Results suggest that the dynamics of this system are driven by variability in the abundance of a single structure-forming species that has indirect positive, as well as direct negative, effects on associated species.

Global modeling of nature's contributions to people.

The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people's needs for nature are now greatest, nature's ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.

Voluntary Restoration: Mitigation's Silent Partner in the Quest to Reverse Coastal Wetland Loss in the USA.

Coastal ecosystems are under pressure from a vast array of anthropogenic stressors, including development and climate change, resulting in significant habitat losses globally Conservation policies are often implemented with the intent of reducing habitat loss. However, losses already incurred will require restoration if ecosystem functions and services are to be recovered. The United States has a long history of wetland loss and recognizes that averting loss requires a multi-pronged approach including mitigation for regulated activities and non-mitigation (voluntary herein) restoration. The 1989 "No Net Loss" (NNL) policy stated the Federal government's intent that losses of wetlands would be offset by at least as many gains of wetlands. However, coastal wetlands losses result from both regulated and non-regulated activities. We examined the effectiveness of Federally funded, voluntary restoration efforts in helping avert losses of coastal wetlands by assessing: (1) What are the current and past trends in coastal wetland change in the U.S.?; and (2) How much and where are voluntary restoration efforts occurring? First, we calculated palustrine and estuarine wetland change in U.S. coastal shoreline counties using data from NOAA's Coastal Change Analysis Program, which integrates both types of potential losses and gains. We then synthesized available data on Federally funded, voluntary restoration of coastal wetlands. We found that from 1996 to 2010, the U.S. lost 139,552 acres (~565 km2) of estuarine wetlands (2.5% of 1996 area) and 336,922 acres (~1,363 km2) of palustrine wetlands (1.4%). From 2006 to 2015, restoration of 145,442 acres (~589 km2) of estuarine wetlands and 154,772 acres (~626 km2) of palustrine wetlands occurred. Further, wetland losses and restoration were not always geographically aligned, resulting in local and regional "winners" and "losers." While these restoration efforts have been considerable, restoration and mitigation collectively have not been able to keep pace with wetland losses; thus, reversing this trend will likely require greater investment in coastal habitat conservation and restoration efforts. We further conclude that "area restored," the most prevalent metric used to assess progress, is inadequate, as it does not necessarily equate to restoration of functions. Assessing the effectiveness of wetland restoration not just in the U.S., but globally, will require allocation of sufficient funding for long-term monitoring of restored wetland functions, as well as implementation of standardized methods for monitoring data collection, synthesis, interpretation, and application.

Biomass rather than growth rate determines variation in net primary production by giant kelp.

Net primary production (NPP) is influenced by disturbance-driven fluctuations in foliar standing crop (FSC) and resource-driven fluctuations in rates of recruitment and growth, yet most studies of NPP have focused primarily on factors influencing growth. We quantified NPP, FSC, recruitment, and growth rate for the giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, at three kelp forests in southern California, U.S.A., over a 54-month period and determined the relative roles of FSC, recruitment, and growth rate in contributing to variation in annual NPP. Net primary production averaged between 0.42 and 2.38 kg dry mass x m(-2) x yr(-1) at the three sites. The initial FSC present at the beginning of the growth year and the recruitment of new plants during the year explained 63% and 21% of the interannual variation observed in NPP, respectively. The previous year's NPP and disturbance from waves collectively accounted for 80% of the interannual variation in initial FSC. No correlation was found between annual growth rate (i.e., the amount of new kelp mass produced per unit of existing kelp mass) and annual NPP (i.e., the amount of new kelp mass produced per unit area of ocean bottom), largely because annual growth rate was consistent compared to initial FSC and recruitment, which fluctuated greatly among years and sites. Although growth rate was a poor predictor of variation in annual NPP, it was principally responsible for the high mean values observed for NPP by Macrocystis. These high mean values reflected rapid growth (average of approximately 2% per day) of a relatively small standing crop (maximum annual mean = 444 g dry mass/m2) that replaced itself approximately seven times per year. Disturbance-driven variability in FSC may be generally important in explaining variation in NPP, yet it is rarely examined because cycles of disturbance and recovery occur over timescales of decades or more in many systems. Considerable insight into how variation in FSC drives variation in NPP may be gained by studying systems such as giant kelp forests that are characterized by frequent disturbance and rapid rates of growth and recruitment.

Net primary production, growth, and standing crop of Macrocystis pyrifera in Southern California.

Marine macroalgae are believed to be among the most productive autotrophs in the world. However, relatively little information exists about spatial and temporal variation in net primary production (NPP) by these organisms. The data presented here are being collected to investigate patterns and causes of variation in NPP by the giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, which is believed to be one of the fastest growing autotrophs on earth. The standing crop and loss rates of M. pyrifera have been measured monthly in permanent plots at three sites in the Santa Barbara Channel, USA. Collection of these data began in June 2002 and is ongoing. Seasonal estimates of NPP and growth rate are made by combining the field data with a model of kelp dynamics. The purpose of this Data Paper is to make available a time series of M. pyrifera NPP, growth, and standing crop that is appropriate for examining seasonal and interannual patterns across multiple sites. Data on plant density in each plot and censuses of fronds on tagged plants at each site are also made available here. NPP, mass-specific growth rate, and standing crop are presented in four different metrics (wet mass, dry mass, carbon mass, and nitrogen mass) to facilitate comparisons with previous studies of M. pyrifera and with NPP measured in other ecosystems. Analyses of these data reveal seasonal cycles in growth and standing crop as well as substantial differences in M. pyrifera NPP among sites and years.

Habitat risk assessment for regional ocean planning in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Coastal habitats provide important benefits to people, including habitat for species targeted by fisheries and opportunities for tourism and recreation. Yet, such human activities also can imperil these habitats and undermine the ecosystem services they provide to people. Cumulative risk assessment provides an analytical framework for synthesizing the influence of multiple stressors across habitats and decision-support for balancing human uses and ecosystem health. To explore cumulative risk to habitats in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Ocean Planning regions, we apply the open-source InVEST Habitat Risk Assessment model to 13 habitats and 31 stressors in an exposure-consequence framework. In doing so, we advance the science priorities of EBM and both regional planning bodies by synthesizing the wealth of available data to improve our understanding of human uses and how they affect marine resources. We find that risk to ecosystems is greatest first, along the coast, where a large number of stressors occur in close proximity and secondly, along the continental shelf, where fewer, higher consequence activities occur. Habitats at greatest risk include soft and hard-bottom nearshore areas, tidal flats, soft-bottom shelf habitat, and rocky intertidal zones-with the degree of risk varying spatially. Across all habitats, our results indicate that rising sea surface temperatures, commercial fishing, and shipping consistently and disproportionally contribute to risk. Further, our findings suggest that management in the nearshore will require simultaneously addressing the temporal and spatial overlap as well as intensity of multiple human activities and that management in the offshore requires more targeted efforts to reduce exposure from specific threats. We offer a transparent, generalizable approach to evaluating cumulative risk to multiple habitats and illustrate the spatially heterogeneous nature of impacts along the eastern Atlantic coast and the importance of spatial scale in estimating such impacts. These results offer a valuable decision-support tool by helping to constrain the decision space, focus attention on habitats and locations at the greatest risk, and highlight effect management strategies.

Linking social, ecological, and physical science to advance natural and nature-based protection for coastal communities.

Interest in the role that ecosystems play in reducing the impacts of coastal hazards has grown dramatically. Yet the magnitude and nature of their effects are highly context dependent, making it difficult to know under what conditions coastal habitats, such as saltmarshes, reefs, and forests, are likely to be effective for saving lives and protecting property. We operationalize the concept of natural and nature-based solutions for coastal protection by adopting an ecosystem services framework that propagates the outcome of a management action through ecosystems to societal benefits. We review the literature on the basis of the steps in this framework, considering not only the supply of coastal protection provided by ecosystems but also the demand for protective services from beneficiaries. We recommend further attention to (1) biophysical processes beyond wave attenuation, (2) the combined effects of multiple habitat types (e.g., reefs, vegetation), (3) marginal values and expected damage functions, and, in particular, (4) community dependence on ecosystems for coastal protection and co-benefits. We apply our approach to two case studies to illustrate how estimates of multiple benefits and losses can inform restoration and development decisions. Finally, we discuss frontiers for linking social, ecological, and physical science to advance natural and nature-based solutions to coastal protection.

Catching the right wave: evaluating wave energy resources and potential compatibility with existing marine and coastal uses.

Many hope that ocean waves will be a source for clean, safe, reliable and affordable energy, yet wave energy conversion facilities may affect marine ecosystems through a variety of mechanisms, including competition with other human uses. We developed a decision-support tool to assist siting wave energy facilities, which allows the user to balance the need for profitability of the facilities with the need to minimize conflicts with other ocean uses. Our wave energy model quantifies harvestable wave energy and evaluates the net present value (NPV) of a wave energy facility based on a capital investment analysis. The model has a flexible framework and can be easily applied to wave energy projects at local, regional, and global scales. We applied the model and compatibility analysis on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada to provide information for ongoing marine spatial planning, including potential wave energy projects. In particular, we conducted a spatial overlap analysis with a variety of existing uses and ecological characteristics, and a quantitative compatibility analysis with commercial fisheries data. We found that wave power and harvestable wave energy gradually increase offshore as wave conditions intensify. However, areas with high economic potential for wave energy facilities were closer to cable landing points because of the cost of bringing energy ashore and thus in nearshore areas that support a number of different human uses. We show that the maximum combined economic benefit from wave energy and other uses is likely to be realized if wave energy facilities are sited in areas that maximize wave energy NPV and minimize conflict with existing ocean uses. Our tools will help decision-makers explore alternative locations for wave energy facilities by mapping expected wave energy NPV and helping to identify sites that provide maximal returns yet avoid spatial competition with existing ocean uses.