The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak. METHODS: Data was extracted from the World Bank's website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05). RESULTS: The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p< 0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p< 0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p< 0.001), all things being equal. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.

A multi-state survey of farm-level preparedness towards African swine fever outbreak in Nigeria.

Outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) have severe economic implications for Nigeria and result in significant loss of livelihoods. The non-availability of vaccines makes biosecurity the reliable key to reducing ASF outbreaks. This study evaluated preparedness for ASF outbreaks at the farm level among 247 pig farmers randomly selected from Abia, Akwa-Ibom, Edo, Kwara, and Oyo states. We categorized each pig farmer's ASF preparedness rating (ASF - PR) as "poor", "moderate", and "satisfactory" based on their score on an 11-item scale. Finally, a multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess the association between the socio-demographic variables and farm-level ASF preparedness. The awareness of ASF among pig farmers was very high (87.9%, n = 217). Most farmers knew the clinical signs of the disease, the modes of transmission of ASF, and correctly identified the risk factors. They also considered the need for thorough cleaning and disinfection of piggeries (87.1%, n = 189), tightened biosecurity (85.7%, n = 186), culling all ASF-affected pigs (77.9%, n = 169) as well as the ban on the transport of pigs and their products (49.8%, n = 108) as very important in ASF control. Conversely, 27.6%, (n = 60) of the farmers thought ASF could affect humans, 12% (n = 27) of them openly discarded the carcasses of dead pigs, and there was a high antibiotic usage. Most of the pig farmers used antibiotics as prophylaxis (63.6%, n = 157), chemotherapeutics (66.4%, n = 164), growth promoters (15.4%, n = 38), and wrongly so, 13% (n = 32) of them thought that antibiotics could be used to prevent and treat ASF. At the farm level, two-thirds (68.8%, n = 170) of the farmers had strict movement restrictions, and 48.6% (n = 120) routinely quarantine new pigs before introduction into their herd. Across the five states, 36% (n = 89) of the farmers had witnessed sudden death with signs consistent with ASF amongst their pigs and only 10.1% (n = 27) had confirmatory ASF diagnosis. The mean score for the farm-level ASF-PR was 6.95 ± 2.7. Approximately one-quarter of the 247 pig farmers had satisfactory ASF - PR that might help to prevent the incursion of ASF into their farms. Most farmers had moderate ASF - PR (59.5%, n = 147) whereas 17% (n = 42) had very poor ASF-PR and were most prone to an ASF outbreak. Of the sociodemographic variables, only age was significantly associated with farm-level ASF preparedness as older pig farmers especially those aged between 50 and 59 years (OR: 4.83; 95% CI: 1.10, 21.22; p = 0.037) were more likely to have satisfactory ASF - PR than the others. Our findings showed pig farmers were not adequately prepared and the next ASF outbreak could pose more significant threat to pig populations across Nigeria. Government should urgently establish minimum biosecurity measures and improve its ASF surveillance mechanisms for commercial and backyard pig production.

Prevalence and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infections among veterinary practitioners and dogs patients, June-August 2020, Lagos, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Lagos State is the epicenter of COVID-19 in Nigeria, having the highest number of cases and death. Veterinary practitioners play an important role in public health and risk exposure to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 while attending to animal patients and owners. We determined the prevalence of covid-19 among veterinary practitioners and their dog patients in Lagos, and the associated risk factors during the lockdown. METHODS: We administered questionnaires, reviewed clinical records and conducted serological test to determine the COVID-19 status of 112 veterinary practitioners and 154 dog patients and to assess the associated factors in nine veterinary clinics or hospitals between June to August 2020. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, bivariate and multivariate analyses at 5% significant level. RESULT: The mean age of participants was 37.5±10.5 and 66 (58.9%) were male. COVID-19 cases among the veterinary practitioners and dogs were 29 (25.9%) and 3 (2%), respectively. Predictors of COVID-19 cases among veterinary practitioners were contact with a SARS-CoV-2 infected dog (AOR: 25.42; CI 4.73-136.66); being a veterinary doctor working during the lockdown (AOR: 6.11; CI 1.56-24.00) and not disinfecting examination table after attending to dogs (AOR: 12.43; CI 1.39-110.99). CONCLUSION: Veterinary practitioners and dogs in Lagos were exposed to SARS-COV-2 virus during the COVID-19 lockdown. Contact with SARS-CoV-2 infected dogs, being a veterinary doctor working during the lockdown and not disinfecting examination tables after clinical examination were predictors of COVID-19 cases among veterinary practitioners in Lagos State. Strict Infection, Prevention and Control measures are recommended in veterinary practice.

Cattle cruelty and risks of meat contamination at Akinyele cattle market and slaughter slab in Oyo State, Nigeria.

Cattle transported to the government-run cattle market and slaughter slab in Akinyele, Oyo State, Nigeria on their final voyage are facing a disturbingly cruel, filthy and unsafe environment that is also raising the risk of contamination of meat sold for human consumption. This report gives a picture of what the cattle have to go through before they are slaughtered. This study also reveals cattle awaiting slaughter in abysmal health conditions, cows pulled with extreme force towards lairage and slaughter slab. Equally disturbing is the filthy situation inside the abattoir where the risk of contamination of meat is significant. Also, poor meat handling, transportation and sales practices subject meat to contamination leading to poor quality and exposure of human consumers to health risk. Development of hygienic slaughter slab operations, improved transportation system for both livestock and meat is therefore recommended; not only for Akinyele, but all abattoirs and slaughter slabs in Nigeria.

Animal health care seeking behavior of pets or livestock owners and knowledge and awareness on zoonoses in a university community.

AIM: We investigated the attitude of pets or livestock owning households in a university community to animal health care services and assessed the knowledge and awareness level of the residents on zoonoses. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Structured questionnaire was used to obtain information on demography, pet or livestock ownership, animal health care seeking behavior, awareness and knowledge of zoonoses from 246 households. We did descriptive statistics and bivariate analysis to determine the level of association in discrete variables between owners and non-owners of pets or livestock at a significant level of p<0.05. RESULTS: Of the 246 respondents, 80 (32.5%) were either pet or livestock owners. The animal health care seeking behavior of the 80 pets or livestock owners in terms of treatment and vaccination was 70%. Of the 56 (70%) who provided health care services for their animals, about 48 (85.7%) engaged the services of a veterinarian. Dog owning households (42) had the highest frequency of treating their pets against endoparasites (97.6%); ectoparasites (81%) and vaccination against diseases (73.8%). Of the 246 respondents, only 47 (19.1%) have heard of the term zoonoses. Of the considered zoonoses; their awareness of rabies (79.3%) was the highest, followed by Lassa fever (66.3%), the least was pasteurellosis with 18.7%. Having pets or livestock was significantly associated (p=0.04) with rabies awareness. However, there is no significant difference in the level of awareness of zoonoses; knowledge of zoonoses, knowledge of prevention of zoonoses and knowledge of risk of zoonoses between owners and non-owners of pets or livestock. CONCLUSION: The animal health care seeking behavior of households with pets or livestock is good and should be encouraged. Public education should be created for other zoonoses aside from rabies, Lassa fever, and avian influenza.

Factors associated with probable cluster of leptospirosis among kennel workers in Abuja, Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Between February and October 2009 an increase in morbidity and mortality in dogs in a national kennel in Abuja, Nigeria, was observed with signs indicative of leptospirosis. Concurrent illness was observed in some kennel workers which had high titres of leptospira antibodies. METHODS: An unmatched case-control study was conducted to identify associated factors. Fifteen cases and fifteen controls were recruited. A probable case was defined as any person working at the kennel with history of fever, chills, headache, myalgia with either conjunctivitis or sore throat between February and December 2009. Controls were healthy kennel workers within the same period. Inclusion criteria were any person meeting the definition (for both cases and controls). Kennel workers who were sick but did not fit into the case definition were excluded. RESULTS: Bivariate analysis showed that wounds or cuts on either hands or legs of kennel workers during the period of the outbreak and contact with sewage at the kennel together (p = 0.001) was associated with leptospirosis among kennel workers. CONCLUSION: The findings revealed the importance of environmental hygiene in the prevention and control of leptospirosis. Sanitation and hygiene improvements were recommended.