Time lag effects of COVID-19 policies on transportation systems: A comparative study of New York City and Seattle.

The unprecedented challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic demand timely action. However, due to the complex nature of policy making, a lag may exist between the time a problem is recognized and the time a policy has its impact on a system. To understand this lag and to expedite decision making, this study proposes a change point detection framework using likelihood ratio, regression structure and a Bayesian change point detection method. The objective is to quantify the time lag effect reflected in transportation systems when authorities take action in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using travel patterns as an indicator of policy effectiveness, the length of policy lag and magnitude of policy impacts on the road system, mass transit, and micromobility are investigated through the case studies of New York City (NYC), and Seattle-two U.S. cities significantly affected by COVID-19. The quantitative findings show that the National declaration of emergency had no policy lag while stay-at-home and reopening policies had a lead effect on mobility. The magnitude of impact largely depended on the land use and sociodemographic characteristics of the area, as well as the type of transportation system.

Extracting Trips from Multi-Sourced Data for Mobility Pattern Analysis: An App-Based Data Example.

Passively-generated data, such as GPS data and cellular data, bring tremendous opportunities for human mobility analysis and transportation applications. Since their primary purposes are often non-transportation related, the passively-generated data need to be processed to extract trips. Most existing trip extraction methods rely on data that are generated via a single positioning technology such as GPS or triangulation through cellular towers (thereby called single-sourced data), and methods to extract trips from data generated via multiple positioning technologies (or, multi-sourced data) are absent. And yet, multi-sourced data are now increasingly common. Generated using multiple technologies (e.g., GPS, cellular network- and WiFi-based), multi-sourced data contain high variances in their temporal and spatial properties. In this study, we propose a "Divide, Conquer and Integrate" (DCI) framework to extract trips from multi-sourced data. We evaluate the proposed framework by applying it to an app-based data, which is multi-sourced and has high variances in both location accuracy and observation interval (i.e. time interval between two consecutive observations). On a manually labeled sample of the app-based data, the framework outperforms the state-of-the-art SVM model that is designed for GPS data. The effectiveness of the framework is also illustrated by consistent mobility patterns obtained from the app-based data and an externally collected household travel survey data for the same region and the same period.