Ensuring robust radiological risk assessment for wildlife: insights from the International Atomic Energy Agency EMRAS and MODARIA programmes.

In response to changing international recommendations and national requirements, a number of assessment approaches, and associated tools and models, have been developed over the last circa 20 years to assess radiological risk to wildlife. In this paper, we summarise international intercomparison exercises and scenario applications of available radiological assessment models for wildlife to aid future model users and those such as regulators who interpret assessments. Through our studies, we have assessed the fitness for purpose of various models and tools, identified the major sources of uncertainty and made recommendations on how the models and tools can best be applied to suit the purposes of an assessment. We conclude that the commonly used tiered or graded assessment tools are generally fit for purpose for conducting screening-level assessments of radiological impacts to wildlife. Radiological protection of the environment (or wildlife) is still a relatively new development within the overall system of radiation protection and environmental assessment approaches are continuing to develop. Given that some new/developing approaches differ considerably from the more established models/tools and there is an increasing international interest in developing approaches that support the effective regulation of multiple stressors (including radiation), we recommend the continuation of coordinated international programmes for model development, intercomparison and scenario testing.

Transfer parameters for ICRP reference animals and plants collected from a forest ecosystem.

The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) have suggested the identification of a series of terrestrial, marine and freshwater sites from which samples of each Reference animal and plant (RAP) could be systematically collected and analysed. We describe the first such study in which six of the eight terrestrial RAPs, and associated soil samples, were collected from a site located in a managed coniferous forestry plantation in north-west England. Adult life stages of species representing six of the terrestrial RAPs (Wild grass, Pine tree, Deer, Rat, Earthworm and Bee) were sampled and analysed to determine concentrations of 60 elements and gamma-emitting radionuclides. The resultant data have been used to derive concentration ratios (CR(wo-soil)) relating element/radionuclide concentrations in the RAPs to those in soil. This paper presents the first-reported transfer parameters for a number of the RAP-element combinations. Where possible, the derived CR(wo-soil) values are compared with the ICRPs-recommended values and any appreciable differences discussed.

Chornobyl radiation spikes are not due to military vehicles disturbing soil.

On 25th February 2022, increased gamma radiation dose rates were reported within the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ). This coincided with Russian military vehicles entering the Ukrainian part of the CEZ from neighbouring Belarus. It was speculated that contaminated soil resuspension by vehicle movements or a leak from the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant complex may explain these spikes in radiation dose rates. The gamma dose rate monitoring network in the CEZ provides a crucial early warning system for releases of radioactivity to the environment and is part of the international safeguards for nuclear facilities. With the potential for further military action in the CEZ and concerns over nuclear safety, it is essential that such anomalous readings are investigated. We evaluate the hypotheses suggested to explain the apparent gamma dose rate increases, demonstrating that neither military vehicle-induced soil resuspension nor a leak from the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant are plausible. However, disruption of the Chornobyl base-station's reception of wireless signals from the gamma dose rate monitoring network in the CEZ may potentially explain the dose rate increases recorded.

Assessment of risk to wildlife from ionising radiation: can initial screening tiers be used with a high level of confidence?

A number of models are being used to assess the potential environmental impact of releases of radioactivity. These often use a tiered assessment structure whose first tier is designed to be highly conservative and simple to use. An aim of using this initial tier is to identify sites of negligible concern and to remove them from further consideration with a high degree of confidence. In this paper we compare the screening assessment outputs of three freely available models. The outputs of these models varied considerably in terms of estimated risk quotient (RQ) and the radionuclide-organism combinations identified as being the most limiting. A number of factors are identified as contributing to this variability: values of transfer parameters (concentration ratios and K(d)) used; organisms considered; different input options and how these are utilised in the assessment; assumptions as regards secular equilibrium; geometries and exposure scenarios. This large variation in RQ values between models means that the level of confidence required by users is not achieved. We recommend that the factors contributing to the variation in screening assessments be subjected to further investigation so that they can be more fully understood and assessors (and those reviewing assessment outputs) can better justify and evaluate the results obtained.

Predicting the radiation exposure of terrestrial wildlife in the Chernobyl exclusion zone: an international comparison of approaches.

There is now general acknowledgement that there is a requirement to demonstrate that species other than humans are protected from anthropogenic releases of radioactivity. A number of approaches have been developed for estimating the exposure of wildlife and some of these are being used to conduct regulatory assessments. There is a requirement to compare the outputs of such approaches against available data sets to ensure that they are robust and fit for purpose. In this paper we describe the application of seven approaches for predicting the whole-body ((90)Sr, (137)Cs, (241)Am and Pu isotope) activity concentrations and absorbed dose rates for a range of terrestrial species within the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Predictions are compared against available measurement data, including estimates of external dose rate recorded by thermoluminescent dosimeters attached to rodent species. Potential reasons for differences between predictions between the various approaches and the available data are explored.

An international model validation exercise on radionuclide transfer and doses to freshwater biota.

Under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)'s EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) programme, activity concentrations of (60)Co, (90)Sr, (137)Cs and (3)H in Perch Lake at Atomic Energy of Canada Limited's Chalk River Laboratories site were predicted, in freshwater primary producers, invertebrates, fishes, herpetofauna and mammals using eleven modelling approaches. Comparison of predicted radionuclide concentrations in the different species types with measured values highlighted a number of areas where additional work and understanding is required to improve the predictions of radionuclide transfer. For some species, the differences could be explained by ecological factors such as trophic level or the influence of stable analogues. Model predictions were relatively poor for mammalian species and herpetofauna compared with measured values, partly due to a lack of relevant data. In addition, concentration ratios are sometimes under-predicted when derived from experiments performed under controlled laboratory conditions representative of conditions in other water bodies.

Can models based on phylogeny be used to predict radionuclide activity concentrations in crops?

The modelling of transfer of radionuclides from soils to plants generally relies upon empirical soil-plant concentration ratios. Concentration ratios are often highly uncertain and are not available for many plant-radionuclide combinations. A number of papers published over the last 20 years have suggested that phylogenetic models could be used to make predictions of the radionuclide transfer to plants. Such a modelling approach would have the advantage that site factors (typically related to soils) are taken into account. For the first time we have compared predictions of Cs and Sr transfer to a range of crops grown on different soils. Predictions for both elements were generally acceptable (within an order of magnitude of observed data) but Sr concentrations were over predicted in fruits and tubers. This over prediction of Sr concentrations is likely to be because the phylogenetic models were fitted to data for green shoots. We conclude that phylogenetic models offer a number of advantages, but that they must be validated and, in future, parametrisation datasets need to include data on concentrations in edible plant parts and not just green shoots.

Radionuclide transfer to wildlife at a 'Reference site' in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and resultant radiation exposures.

This study addresses a significant data deficiency in the developing environmental protection framework of the International Commission on Radiological Protection, namely a lack of radionuclide transfer data for some of the Reference Animals and Plants (RAPs). It is also the first study that has sampled such a wide range of species (invertebrates, plants, amphibians and small mammals) from a single terrestrial site in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ). Samples were collected in 2014 from the 0.4 km2 sampling site, located 5 km west of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power complex. We report radionuclide (137Cs, 90Sr, 241Am and Pu-isotopes) and stable element concentrations in wildlife and soil samples and use these to determine whole organism-soil concentration ratios and absorbed dose rates. Increasingly, stable element analyses are used to provide transfer parameters for radiological models. The study described here found that for both Cs and Sr the transfer of the stable element tended to be lower than that of the radionuclide; this is the first time that this has been demonstrated for Sr, though it is in agreement with limited evidence previously reported for Cs. Studies reporting radiation effects on wildlife in the CEZ generally relate observations to ambient dose rates determined using handheld dose meters. For the first time, we demonstrate that ambient dose rates may underestimate the actual dose rate for some organisms by more than an order of magnitude. When reporting effects studies from the CEZ, it has previously been suggested that the area has comparatively low natural background dose rates. However, on the basis of data reported here, dose rates to wildlife from natural background radionuclides within the CEZ are similar to those in many areas of Europe.

Derivation of transfer parameters for use within the ERICA Tool and the default concentration ratios for terrestrial biota.

An ability to predict radionuclide activity concentrations in biota is a requirement of any method assessing the exposure of biota to ionising radiation. Within the ERICA Tool fresh weight whole-body activity concentrations in organisms are estimated using concentration ratios (the ratio of the activity concentration in the organism to the activity concentration in an environmental media). This paper describes the methodology used to derive the default terrestrial ecosystem concentration ratio database available within the ERICA Tool and provides details of the provenance of each value for terrestrial reference organisms. As the ERICA Tool considers 13 terrestrial reference organisms and the radioisotopes of 31 elements, a total of 403 concentration ratios were required for terrestrial reference organisms. Of these, 129 could be derived from literature review. The approaches taken for selecting the remaining values are described. These included, for example, assuming values for similar reference organisms and/or biogeochemically similar elements, and various simple modelling approaches.

Background exposure rates of terrestrial wildlife in England and Wales.

It has been suggested that, when assessing radiation impacts on non-human biota, estimated dose rates due to anthropogenically released radionuclides should be put in context by comparison to dose rates from natural background radiation. In order to make these comparisons, we need data on the activity concentrations of naturally occurring radionuclides in environmental media and organisms of interest. This paper presents the results of a study to determine the exposure of terrestrial organisms in England and Wales to naturally occurring radionuclides, specifically (40)K, (238)U series and (232)Th series radionuclides. Whole-body activity concentrations for the reference animals and plants (RAPs) as proposed by the ICRP have been collated from literature review, data archives and a targeted sampling campaign. Data specifically for the proposed RAP are sparse. Soil activity concentrations have been derived from an extensive geochemical survey of the UK. Unweighted and weighted absorbed dose rates were estimated using the ERICA Tool. Mean total weighted whole-body absorbed dose rates estimated for the selected terrestrial organisms was in the range 6.9 x 10(-2) to 6.1 x 10(-1) microGy h(-1).

Estimating the exposure of small mammals at three sites within the Chernobyl exclusion zone--a test application of the ERICA Tool.

An essential step in the development of any modelling tool is the validation of its predictions. This paper describes a study conducted within the Chernobyl exclusion zone to acquire data to conduct an independent test of the predictions of the ERICA Tool which is designed for use in assessments of radiological risk to the environment. Small mammals were repeatedly trapped at three woodland sites between early July and mid-August 2005. Thermoluminescent dosimeters mounted on collars were fitted to Apodemus flavicollis, Clethrionomys glareolus and Microtus spp. to provide measurements of external dose rate. A total of 85 TLDs were recovered. All animals from which TLDs were recovered were live-monitored to determine (90)Sr and (137)Cs whole-body activity concentrations. A limited number of animals were also analysed to determine (239,240)Pu activity concentrations. Measurements of whole-body activity concentrations and dose rates recorded by the TLDs were compared to predictions of the ERICA-Tool. The predicted (90)Sr and (137)Cs mean activity concentrations were within an order of magnitude of the observed data means. Whilst there was some variation between sites in the agreement between measurements and predictions this was consistent with what would be expected from the differences in soil types at the sites. Given the uncertainties of conducting a study such as this, the agreement observed between the TLD results and the predicted external dose rates gives confidence to the predictions of the ERICA Tool.

The transfer of radiocaesium to ewes through a breeding cycle--an illustration of the pitfalls of the transfer coefficient.

A study to measure the transfer of radiocaesium to adult female sheep through a breeding cycle is described. The transfer of radiocaesium from the diet to muscle (estimated as the equilibrium transfer coefficient) was significantly lower to pregnant, and especially lactating, animals compared to non-lactating and barren animals. High dry matter intake rates were also associated with significantly lower transfer coefficients. Known relationships between dry matter intake rates and protein turnover could credibly explain some of these differences. However, when described as the concentration ratio, radiocaesium transfer to meat was apparently highest during lactation. The apparent difference in results obtained by the two approaches of determining transfer is the consequence of daily dry matter intake being a denominator within the estimation of transfer coefficient. A wider discussion of transfer coefficients and concentration ratios leads us to suggest that the concentration ratio is the more robust and potentially generic parameter.

Factors contributing to radiocaesium variability in upland sheep flocks in west Cumbria (United Kingdom).

Following the Chernobyl accident in 1986, restrictions were placed on the movement and slaughter of sheep within upland areas of the UK because radiocaesium activity concentrations in their meat exceeded 1000 Bq kg(-1) fresh weight. Some farms remain under restriction in 2007. From 1991 to 1993 detailed studies were conducted on three sheep farms within the restricted area of west Cumbria to systematically assess the various parameters which may contribute to the observed variability in radiocaesium activity concentrations within sheep flocks. This paper reports the spatial variation in soil and vegetation activity concentrations across the grazed areas at these farms and determines the influence of grazing behaviour on variability in (137)Cs activity concentrations between individual sheep within the flocks. Together with previously reported results, these new data are used to draw conclusions on the factors determining variability within the three flocks. However, the factors are too site specific to be able to generalise the findings to other farms within the restricted areas of the UK.

Review of Russian language studies on radionuclide behaviour in agricultural animals: part 2. Transfer to milk.

An overview of original information available from Russian language papers on radionuclide transfer to milk is provided. Most of the data presented have not been taken into account in international reviews. The transfer coefficient (F(m)) values for radioactive isotopes of strontium, caesium and iodine are in good agreement with those previously published. The Russian language data, often based on experiments with many animals, constitute a considerable increase to the available data for many less well-studied radionuclides. In some instances, the Russian language data suggest changes in recommended values (e.g. Zr and Ru). The information presented here substantially increases the amount of available data on radionuclide transfer to milk and will be included in the current revision of the IAEA TRS Handbook of parameter values for radionuclide transfer.

The transfer of different forms of 35S to goat milk.

Sulphur-35 is released during the routine operation of UK gas-cooled reactors. An experiment to determine the rates of transfer of different forms of (35)S to goat milk is described. Lactating goats received (35)S orally as single administrations of sulphate, L-methionine, or grass contaminated either through root uptake of (35)S as sulphate or through aerial deposition of (35)S as carbonyl sulphide onto the grass. Transfer was higher for (35)S administered as methionine compared with (35)S administered as sulphate. Changes in activity concentrations in milk for all sources of (35)S demonstrated two components of loss. The first component had a half-life of circa 1 d for all sources, the second was longer in goats administered carbonyl sulphide (44 d) than in all of the other treatments (circa 10 d). The rate of transfer of (35)S to milk of a further group of goats receiving (35)S-sulphate daily appeared to reach equilibrium within 30 d. Extrapolation of transfer parameters derived to other dairy ruminants is discussed.

Improving the quantity, quality and transparency of data used to derive radionuclide transfer parameters for animal products. 2. Cow milk.

Under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) MODARIA (Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments) Programme, there has been an initiative to improve the derivation, provenance and transparency of transfer parameter values for radionuclides from feed to animal products that are for human consumption. A description of the revised MODARIA 2016 cow milk dataset is described in this paper. As previously reported for the MODARIA goat milk dataset, quality control has led to the discounting of some references used in IAEA's Technical Report Series (TRS) report 472 (IAEA, 2010). The number of Concentration Ratio (CR) values has been considerably increased by (i) the inclusion of more literature from agricultural studies which particularly enhanced the stable isotope data of both CR and Fm and (ii) by estimating dry matter intake from assumed liveweight. In TRS 472, the data for cow milk were 714 transfer coefficient (Fm) values and 254 CR values describing 31 elements and 26 elements respectively. In the MODARIA 2016 cow milk dataset, Fm and CR values are now reported for 43 elements based upon 825 data values for Fm and 824 for CR. The MODARIA 2016 cow milk dataset Fm values are within an order of magnitude of those reported in TRS 472. Slightly bigger changes are seen in the CR values, but the increase in size of the dataset creates greater confidence in them. Data gaps that still remain are identified for elements with isotopes relevant to radiation protection.

Improving the quantity, quality and transparency of data used to derive radionuclide transfer parameters for animal products. 1. Goat milk.

Under the MODARIA (Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments Programme of the International Atomic Energy Agency), there has been an initiative to improve the derivation, provenance and transparency of transfer parameter values for radionuclides. The approach taken for animal products is outlined here and the first revised table for goat milk is provided. Data from some references used in TRS 472 were removed and reasons given for removal. Particular efforts were made to improve the number of CR (concentration ratio) values which have some advantages over transfer coefficients. There is little difference in most of the new CR and Fm (transfer coefficient) values for goat milk compared with those in TRS 472. In TRS 472, 21 CR values were reported for goat milk. In the 2015 dataset for goat milk CR values for a further 14 elements are now included. The CR and Fm values for only one element (Co) were removed.

Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model.

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7x10(14), 1.2x10(13), 2.8x10(10) and 5.3x10(9)Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately 160 million pounds. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.

Review of Russian language studies on radionuclide behaviour in agricultural animals: biological half-lives.

Extensive studies on transfer of radionuclides to animals were carried out in the USSR from the 1950s. Few of these studies were published in the international refereed literature or taken into account in international reviews. This paper continues a series of reviews of Russian language literature on radionuclide transfer to animals, providing information on biological half-lives of radionuclides in various animal tissues. The data are compared, where possible, with those reported in other countries. The data are normally quantified using a single or double exponential accounting for different proportions of the loss. For some products, such as milk, biological half-lives tend to be rapid at 1-3 d for most radionuclides and largely described by a single exponential. However, for other animal products biological half-lives can vary widely as they are influenced by many factors such as the age and size of the animal. Experimental protocols, such as the duration of the study, radionuclide administration and/or sample collection protocol also influence the value of biological half-lives estimated.

Development of an approach to estimating mid- to long-term critical loads for radiocaesium contamination of cow milk in western Europe.

This paper describes the application of the critical load methodology, developed to set emission targets for atmospheric pollutants, to radioecology. The critical load can be redefined within radioecology as the radionuclide deposition at which radionuclide activity concentrations in a specified food product will exceed the maximum permitted level. An empirically based approach is described which provides estimates of critical load values for cow milk in the mid- to long-term after an accident when soil-to-plant transfer of radiocaesium is largely responsible for plant radiocaesium contamination. The areas identified as being most potentially vulnerable to radiocaesium deposition using this approach are those with extensive areas of organic soils such as western Scotland, parts of Ireland, The Netherlands and Denmark. The classification of European soil types into soil groups with significantly different soil-to-plant transfer of radiocaesium, and the allocation of a transfer value to each soil group provide the greatest uncertainties within this approach. Potential problems and deficiencies affecting the estimation of parameter values are discussed.