Impact of local air quality management policies on emergency hospitalisations for respiratory conditions in the North West Coast region of England: a longitudinal controlled ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Air quality is monitored at a local level in the UK as part of the Local Air Quality Management (LAQM) system. If air quality objectives within an area are not achieved an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) is declared and action plan developed. The efficacy of this system in reducing air pollution has increasingly come into question, however very little is known about its impact on health or health inequalities. We therefore investigated the effect of declaring an AQMA on emergency hospitalisations for respiratory conditions in the North West Coast region of England, and examined whether the effect differed between more compared to less deprived neighbourhoods. METHODS: This longitudinal controlled ecological study analysed neighbourhoods located within or touching the boundaries of AQMAs declared in the North West Coast region between 2006 and 2016. Each of these intervention neighbourhoods were matched with five control neighbourhoods which had never been located within/touching an AQMA boundary. Difference-in-differences methods were used to compare the change in hospitalisation rates in the intervention neighbourhoods to the change in hospitalisation rates in the matched control neighbourhoods, before and after the declaration of an AQMA. RESULTS: In total, 108 intervention neighbourhoods and 540 control neighbourhoods were analysed over the period 2005-2017, giving a total sample size of 8424 neighbourhood-years. Emergency hospitalisations for respiratory conditions decreased in the intervention neighbourhoods by 158 per 100,000 per year [95% CI 90 to 227] after an AQMA was declared relative to the control neighbourhoods. There was a larger decrease in hospitalisation rates following the declaration of an AQMA in more compared to less income deprived neighbourhoods. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest the LAQM system has contributed to a reduction in emergency hospitalisations for respiratory conditions, and may represent an effective strategy to reduce inequalities in health. These findings highlight the importance of measuring the success of air quality policies not just in terms of air pollution but also in terms of population health.

Socioeconomic status and infectious intestinal disease in the community: a longitudinal study (IID2 study).

Background: Infectious intestinal diseases (IID) are common, affecting around 25% of people in UK each year at an estimated annual cost to the economy, individuals and the NHS of £1.5 billion. While there is evidence of higher IID hospital admissions in more disadvantaged groups, the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and risk of IID remains unclear. This study aims to investigate the relationship between SES and IID in a large community cohort. Methods: Longitudinal analysis of a prospective community cohort in the UK following 6836 participants of all ages was undertaken. Hazard ratios for IID by SES were estimated using Cox proportional hazard, adjusting for follow-up time and potential confounding factors. Results: In the fully adjusted analysis, hazard ratio of IID was significantly lower among routine/manual occupations compared with managerial/professional occupations (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.61-0.90). Conclusion: In this large community cohort, lower SES was associated with lower IID risk. This may be partially explained by the low response rate which varied by SES. However, it may be related to differences in exposure or recognition of IID symptoms by SES. Higher hospital admissions associated with lower SES observed in some studies could relate to more severe consequences, rather than increased infection risk.

Socioeconomic status is associated with symptom severity and sickness absence in people with infectious intestinal disease in the UK.

BACKGROUND: The burden of infectious intestinal disease (IID) in the UK is substantial. Negative consequences including sickness absence are common, but little is known about the social patterning of these outcomes, or the extent to which they relate to disease severity. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis using IID cases identified from a large population-based survey, to explore the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and symptom severity and sickness absence; and to assess the role of symptom severity on the relationship between SES and absence. Regression modelling was used to investigate these associations, whilst controlling for potential confounders such as age, sex and ethnicity. RESULTS: Among 1164 cases, those of lower SES versus high had twice the odds of experiencing severe symptoms (OR 2.2, 95%CI;1.66-2.87). Lower SES was associated with higher odds of sickness absence (OR 1.8, 95%CI;1.26-2.69), however this association was attenuated after adjusting for symptom severity (OR 1.4, 95%CI;0.92-2.07). CONCLUSIONS: In a large sample of IID cases, those of low SES versus high were more likely to report severe symptoms, and sickness absence; with greater severity largely explaining the higher absence. Public health interventions are needed to address the unequal consequences of IID identified.

Economic shocks, resilience, and male suicides in the Great Recession: cross-national analysis of 20 EU countries.

BACKGROUND: During the 2007-11 recessions in Europe, suicide increases were concentrated in men. Substantial differences across countries and over time remain unexplained. We investigated whether increases in unaffordable housing, household indebtedness or job loss can account for these population differences, as well as potential mitigating effects of alternative forms of social protection. METHODS: Multivariate statistical models were used to evaluate changes in suicide rates in 20 EU countries from 1981-2011. Models adjusted for pre-existing time trends and country-fixed effects. Interaction terms were used to evaluate modifying effects. RESULTS: Changes in levels of unaffordable housing had no effect on suicide rates (P = 0.32); in contrast, male suicide increases were significantly associated with each percentage point rise in male unemployment, by 0.94% (95% CI: 0.51-1.36%), and indebtedness, by 0.54% (95% CI: 0.02-1.06%). Spending on active labour market programmes (ALMP) (-0.26%, 95% CI: -0.08 to -0.45%) and high levels of social capital (-0.048%, 95% CI: -0.0096 to -0.087) moderated the unemployment-suicide association. There was no interaction of the volume of anti-depressant prescriptions (P = 0.51), monetary benefits to unemployed persons (P = 0.77) or total social protection spending per capita (P = 0.37). Active labour market programmes and social capital were estimated to have prevented ∼ 540 and ∼ 210 male suicides, respectively, arising from unemployment in the countries studied. CONCLUSION: Job losses were a critical determinant of variations in male suicide risks in Europe's recessions. Greater spending on ALMP and levels of social capital appeared to mitigate suicide risks.

The Modification of Dietary Protein with Ammonium Hydroxide Enhancement Improves Longevity and Metabolic Outcomes in a Sex-Dependent Manner.

(1) Background: Dietary protein is a key component of all dietary patterns. It has been demonstrated that there are subtle differences in health implications associated with the source of dietary protein consumed. This study examined dietary protein sources (DPSs) in a long-term study of diet-induced obesity ± ammonium hydroxide enhancement (AHE) and its role in improving long-term health outcomes. (2) Methods: Over 18 months, 272 C3H/HeJ mice (136 male and 136 female) were monitored on high-fat diets with varying DPSs ± AHE. Mice were monitored for weekly change in total mass, as well as 6-month assessments of lean and fat mass. At each assessment, a cohort (~8 mice per diet per sex) was censored for a cross-sectional examination of organ function. (3) Results: Longevity was improved in females fed AHE diets, regardless of DPSs. Females' measures of fat and lean mass were markedly elevated with casein protein diets compared to beef protein diets regardless of AHE. Females fed a beef protein diet + AHE demonstrated reduced fat mass and increased lean mass with aging. In males, AHE beef protein diet-fed mice showed marked improvement to longevity and increased lean mass at 6 months. (4) Conclusions: This study demonstrates that dietary protein modification by AHE attenuates the negative impacts of HF diets in both males and females in a sex-dependent manner. Furthermore, the results from this study emphasize the importance of identifying the differences in the utilization of dietary proteins in both a sex- and age-related manner and demonstrate the potential of DPS modification by AHE as a dietary intervention.

Effect of Universal Credit on young children's mental health: quasi-experimental evidence from Understanding Society.

BACKGROUND: Child mental health has become an increasingly important issue in the UK, especially in the context of significant welfare reforms. Universal Credit (UC) has introduced substantial changes to the UK's social security system, significantly impacting low-income families. Our aim was to assess the effects of UC's introduction on children's mental health for families eligible for UC versus a comparable non-eligible sample. METHODS: Using Understanding Society data from 5806 observations of 4582 children (aged 5 or 8 years) in Great Britain between 2012 and 2018, we created two groups: children whose parents were eligible for UC (intervention group) and children whose parents were ineligible for UC (comparison group). Child mental health was assessed using a parent-reported Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. The OR and percentage point change in the prevalence of children experiencing mental health difficulties between the intervention group and the comparison group following the introduction of UC were analysed. We also investigated whether the utilisation of childcare services and changes in household income were mechanisms by which UC impacted children's mental health. RESULTS: Logistic regression results demonstrated that the prevalence of mental health problems among eligible children whose parents were unemployed increased by an OR of 2.18 (95% CI 1.14 to 4.18), equivalent to an 8-percentage point increase (95% CI 1 to 14 percentage points) following the introduction of UC, relative to the comparison group. Exploring potential mechanisms, we found neither reduced household income nor increased use of childcare services, which served as a proxy for reduced time spent with parents, significantly influenced children's mental health. CONCLUSIONS: UC has led to an increase in mental health problems among recipient children, particularly for children in larger families and those aged 8. Policymakers should carefully evaluate the potential health consequences for specific demographics when introducing new welfare policies.

Microbiome Taxonomic and Functional Differences in C3H/HeJ Mice Fed a Long-Term High-Fat Diet with Beef Protein ± Ammonium Hydroxide Supplementation.

Studies have suggested that alkalinized foods may reduce the effects of the acidogenic Western diet in promoting obesity, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes, cancer, and coronary heart disease. Indeed, a recent study in mice fed a high-fat diet containing dietary beef supplemented with ammonium hydroxide showed improvement in a suite of metabolic outcomes. However, the effects of dietary protein ammonium supplementation on the microbiome remain unknown. In this study, the effects of ammonium supplementation on beef protein towards microbiome taxa and function in a high-fat diet were analyzed. Fecal microbiomes were characterized using a shotgun metagenomic approach for 16-month-old male and female mice after long-term diet treatments. The results for ammoniated diets showed that several bacteria known to be associated with health benefits increased significantly, including Romboutsia, Oscillospiraceae, and Lactococcus cremoris. The beneficial mucin-degrader Akkermansia was especially abundant, with a high prevalence (~86%) in females. Concurrently, the phyla Actinomycetota (Actinobacteria) and Bacteroidota (Bacteroidetes) were significantly reduced. While sex was a confounding factor affecting microbiome responses to ammonium supplementation in dietary protein, it is worth noting that several putatively beneficial microbiome functions increased with ammonium supplementation, such as glycine betaine transport, xenobiotic detoxification, enhanced defense, and others. Conversely, many disease-associated microbiome functions reduced. Importantly, modifying protein pH alone via ammonium supplementation induced beneficial microbiota changes. Taken together, these results suggest that ammonium-supplemented proteins may mediate some negative microbiome-associated effects of high-fat/Western diets.

Implications of child poverty reduction targets for public health and health inequalities in England: a modelling study between 2024 and 2033.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the potential impacts of child poverty (CP) reduction scenarios on population health and health inequalities in England between 2024 and 2033. METHODS: We combined aggregate local authority-level data with published and newly created estimates on the association between CP and the rate per 100 000 of infant mortality, children (aged <16) looked after, child (aged <16) hospitalisations for nutritional anaemia and child (aged <16) all-cause emergency hospital admissions. We modelled relative, absolute (per 100 000) and total (per total population) annual changes for these outcomes under three CP reduction scenarios between 2024 and 2033-low-ambition (15% reduction), medium-ambition (25% reduction) and high-ambition (35% reduction)-compared with a baseline CP scenario (15% increase). Annual changes were aggregated between 2024 and 2033 at national, regional and deprivation (IMD tertiles) levels to investigate inequalities. RESULTS: All CP reduction scenarios would result in substantial improvements to child health. Meeting the high-ambition reduction would decrease total cases of infant mortality (293; 95% CI 118 to 461), children looked after (4696; 95% CI 1987 to 7593), nutritional anaemia (458, 95% CI 336 to 574) and emergency admissions (32 650; 95% CI 4022 to 61 126) between 2024 and 2033. Northern regions (eg, North East) exhibited the greatest relative and absolute benefit. The most deprived tertile would experience the largest relative, absolute and total benefit; under high-ambition reduction, total infant mortality cases were predicted to fall by 126 (95% CI 51 to 199) in the most deprived tertile compared with 71 (95% CI 29 to 112) in the least between 2024 and 2033. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving reductions in CP could substantially improve child health and reduce health inequalities in England.

Evaluating the impact on physical inactivity of Together an Active Future, a partnership approach to physical activity promotion. A difference-in-differences study.

BACKGROUND: Low physical activity is one of the leading causes of ill health in the UK and an important determinant of health inequalities. Little is known about the effectiveness of community-wide interventions to increase physical activity and whether effects differ by demographic groups, including area deprivation and ethnicity. SETTING: 6 relatively disadvantaged local authority areas in Lancashire, UK, between 2016 and 2021. METHODS: We conducted a doubly robust difference-in-differences study using a large nationally representative repeated cross-sectional survey to investigate the impact of Together an Active Future (TAAF), an intervention aiming to reduce physical inactivity through a programme of creative engagement, partnership building, training and communication. The primary outcome was physical inactivity (the percentage of the population engaging in less than 30 min physical activity of at least moderate intensity per week). RESULTS: While inactivity increased during the pandemic, it increased to a lesser extent in the intervention population. TAAF was associated with 2.63 percentage point lower level of physical inactivity (95% CI 0.80 to 4.45) in the intervention group relative to the control group. Subgroup analysis found no evidence of differences in effect between groups defined by deprivation, ethnicity, disability, gender or age. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that a programme of creative engagement, partnership building, training and communication can help reduce physical inactivity, potentially mitigating some of the effect of pandemic restrictions. Further monitoring is required to understand the impact of this intervention outside of the pandemic context.

Investigating the impact of undiagnosed anxiety and depression on health and social care costs and quality of life: cross-sectional study using household health survey data.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty around the costs and health impacts of undiagnosed mental health problems. AIMS: Using survey data, we aim to understand the costs and health-related quality-of-life decrements from undiagnosed anxiety/depression. METHOD: We analysed survey data from two waves of the North West Coast Household Health Survey, which included questions on disease, medications, and Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9) and Generalised Anxiety Disorder 7 (GAD-7) scores (depression and anxiety scales). People were judged as having undiagnosed anxiety/depression problems if they scored ≥5 on the PHQ-9 or GAD-7, and did not declare a mental health issue or antidepressant prescription. Linear regression for EuroQol 5-Dimension 3-Level (EQ-5D-3L) index scores, and Tweedie regression for health and social care costs, were used to estimate the impact of undiagnosed mental health problems, controlling for age, gender, deprivation and other health conditions. RESULTS: Around 26.5% of participants had undiagnosed anxiety/depression. The presence of undiagnosed anxiety/depression was associated with reduced EQ-5D-3L index scores (0.040 lower on average) and increased costs (£250 ($310) per year on average). Using a higher cut-off score of 10 on the PHQ-9 and GAD-7 for undiagnosed anxiety/depression had similar increased costs but a greater reduction in EQ-5D-3L index scores (0.076 on average), indicating a larger impact on health-related quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Having undiagnosed anxiety or depression increases costs and reduces health-related quality of life. Reducing stigma and increasing access to cost-effective treatments will have population health benefits.

Understanding the impact funding cuts on Environmental and regulatory services and gastrointestinal infections: a longitudinal ecological study.

Background: Gastrointestinal (GI) infections result in 17 million cases annually, with foodborne illness costing the National Health Service (NHS) £60m per year. The burden of GI infection is unequally distributed, with greater impact in more socioeconomically disadvantaged groups and areas. Local authorities (LA) provide vital services that protect public health and wellbeing. The impact of funding cuts to local services and their effect on public health is an area of concern. Environmental and regulatory (ER) services are responsible for roles such as food safety and infectious disease control. This study aims to understand the impact of local funding cuts on ER and GI infection outcomes. Methods: We will conduct an ecological longitudinal study in England from 2010-2019 at the LA level to examine how changes in ER expenditure overtime have impacted ER and GI infection outcomes. Data will be gathered on food hygiene enforcement, food hygiene compliance levels, GI infection hospitalisation, NHS 111 calls relating to GI infection symptoms, GI infection pathogen data, deprivation, and population density. Measures will be aggregated to LA level and statistical analysis will be carried out. Ethics and dissemination: University of Liverpool Ethics committee have confirmed ethical approval will not be required. All data will be aggregated and anonymised, therefore only data sharing agreements will be required. Findings will be disseminated to the stakeholder group in addition to outputs through conferences and publications. These findings will help understand impact of key services on public health and should inform government and public health policy and strategy.

Natural experiments for the evaluation of place-based public health interventions: a methodology scoping review.

Introduction: Place-based public health evaluations are increasingly making use of natural experiments. This scoping review aimed to provide an overview of the design and use of natural experiment evaluations (NEEs), and an assessment of the plausibility of the as-if randomization assumption. Methods: A systematic search of three bibliographic databases (Pubmed, Web of Science and Ovid-Medline) was conducted in January 2020 to capture publications that reported a natural experiment of a place-based public health intervention or outcome. For each, study design elements were extracted. An additional evaluation of as-if randomization was conducted by 12 of this paper's authors who evaluated the same set of 20 randomly selected studies and assessed 'as-if ' randomization for each. Results: 366 NEE studies of place-based public health interventions were identified. The most commonly used NEE approach was a Difference-in-Differences study design (25%), followed by before-after studies (23%) and regression analysis studies. 42% of NEEs had likely or probable as-if randomization of exposure (the intervention), while for 25% this was implausible. An inter-rater agreement exercise indicated poor reliability of as-if randomization assignment. Only about half of NEEs reported some form of sensitivity or falsification analysis to support inferences. Conclusion: NEEs are conducted using many different designs and statistical methods and encompass various definitions of a natural experiment, while it is questionable whether all evaluations reported as natural experiments should be considered as such. The likelihood of as-if randomization should be specifically reported, and primary analyses should be supported by sensitivity analyses and/or falsification tests. Transparent reporting of NEE designs and evaluation methods will contribute to the optimum use of place-based NEEs.

The impact of an integrated care intervention on mortality and unplanned hospital admissions in a disadvantaged community in England: A difference-in-differences study.

BACKGROUND: Many health systems are experimenting with integrated care models to improve outcomes and reduce healthcare demand. Evidence for effects on health service utilisation is variable, with few studies investigating impacts on mortality or differences by socioeconomic group. OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of a multidisciplinary, integrated care team intervention on emergency admissions and mortality, and whether effects differed by deprivation group. DESIGN: A longitudinal matched controlled study using difference-in-differences analysis comparing the change in unplanned emergency admissions twelve months before and after the intervention, and inverse probability of treatment-weighted survival analysis comparing mortality, between intervention and matched control groups. SETTING: A relatively deprived city in England, U.K. INTERVENTION: A case-management integrated care programme delivered through multidisciplinary teams and aimed at complex needs and/or high hospitalisation risk patients. RESULTS: The intervention was associated with a small increase in emergency admissions of 15 per 1,000 patients per month (95% CI 5 to 24, p = 0.003) after the intervention relative to the control group and no significant change in survival between intervention and control groups (HR 0.9, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.13, p = 0.7). Effects were similar across age and deprivation groups. CONCLUSIONS: It is unlikely that similar interventions lead to reduced emergency admissions or increased survival. Further studies should use experimental methods and assess impacts on quality of life.

Socioeconomic differences in recruitment and sickness absence in a large NHS health organisation: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the distribution of the workforce of one large National Health Service (NHS) employer in relation to socioeconomic deprivation and how sickness absence rates varied across these levels of deprivation. DESIGN: Share of the working age population that was employed at the NHS organisation mapped by area deprivation. The study used negative binomial regression models to investigate the extent to which wage level, occupational group and area deprivation were associated with sickness absence among employees. SETTING: The study used electronic staff records (2018-2019) of a large NHS organisation in the North West of England. RESULTS: In the most deprived areas, an additional person per 1000 working age population were employed at this NHS organisation compared with the most affluent areas. Employees from the most deprived quintile had 1.41 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.70) times the higher sickness rates than the employees from the least deprived quintile, when adjusting for age and sex. These differences were largely explained by differences in wage levels and occupation groups, with the lowest wage employees having 2.5 (95% CI 1.87 to 3.42) times the sickness absence rate as the highest wage group and the nursing and midwifery employees having 1.8 (95% CI 1.50 to 2.24) times the sickness absence rate as the administrative and clerical group. CONCLUSION: This large NHS organisation employed people disproportionately from deprived areas. They were considerably more likely to experience sickness absence compared with people from affluent areas. This appears to be because they were more likely to be in lower wage employment and employed in nursing and nursing assistant. Workplace health policies need to target these workers, adapting to their needs while enabling improvements in their working conditions, pay and career progression.

Evaluation of the mental health impacts of Universal Credit: protocol for a mixed methods study.

INTRODUCTION: The UK social security system is being transformed by the implementation of Universal Credit (UC), which combines six existing benefits and tax credits into a single payment for low-income households. Despite extensive reports of hardship associated with the introduction of UC, no previous studies have comprehensively evaluated its impact on mental health. Because payments are targeted at low-income households, impacts on mental health will have important consequences for health inequalities. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a mixed methods study. Work package (WP) 1 will compare health outcomes for new recipients of UC with outcomes for legacy benefit recipients in two large population surveys, using the phased rollout of UC as a natural experiment. We will also analyse the relationship between the proportion of UC claimants in small areas and a composite measure of mental health. WP2 will use data collected by Citizen's Advice to explore the sociodemographic and health characteristics of people who seek advice when claiming UC and identify features of the claim process that prompt advice-seeking. WP3 will conduct longitudinal in-depth interviews with up to 80 UC claimants in England and Scotland to explore reasons for claiming and experiences of the claim process. Up to 30 staff supporting claimants will also be interviewed. WP4 will use a dynamic microsimulation model to simulate the long-term health impacts of different implementation scenarios. WP5 will undertake cost-consequence analysis of the potential costs and outcomes of introducing UC and cost-benefit analyses of mitigating actions. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We obtained ethical approval for the primary data gathering from the University of Glasgow, College of Social Sciences Research Ethics Committee, application number 400200244. We will use our networks to actively disseminate findings to UC claimants, the public, practitioners and policy-makers, using a range of methods and formats. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The study is registered with the Research Registry: researchregistry6697.

A new species of Oligosoma (Squamata: Scincidae) from the northern North Island, New Zealand.

New Zealand is home to a diverse cool temperate assemblage of skinks, with 60+ identified taxa (genus Oligosoma Girard), of which only 50 have been formally described. Here we describe a new species (Oligosoma kakerakau sp. nov.) from Bream Head Scenic Reserve, near Whangrei Heads, Northland. This species is considered to be conspecific with a single specimen (Oligosoma Whirinaki) previously reported (in 2003) from Whirinaki Te Pua-a-Tne Conservation Park ~370 km further south. Oligosoma kakerakau sp. nov. can be distinguished from all other members of the genus by a combination of a distinctive teardrop marking below the eye, a distinctive mid-lateral stripe, and the colouration and pattern on its ventral surface. Our phylogenetic analyses indicate that Oligosoma kakerakau sp. nov. is most closely related to O. zelandicum (Gray), and more distantly to O. striatum (Buller) and O. homalonotum (Boulenger). Sea level changes during the Pliocene, such as the formation of the Manawat Strait, may have contributed to the divergence between Oligosoma kakerakau sp. nov. and O. zelandicum. We discuss the distribution, ecology and conservation of Oligosoma kakerakau sp. nov., and outline future research and conservation priorities for the species.

How does vulnerability to COVID-19 vary between communities in England? Developing a Small Area Vulnerability Index (SAVI).

BACKGROUND: During the initial wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in England, several population characteristics were associated with increased risk of mortality-including, age, ethnicity, income deprivation, care home residence and housing conditions. In order to target control measures and plan for future waves of the epidemic, public health agencies need to understand how these vulnerabilities are distributed across and clustered within communities. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional ecological analysis across 6789 small areas in England. We assessed the association between COVID-19 mortality in each area and five vulnerability measures relating to ethnicity, poverty, prevalence of long-term health conditions, living in care homes and living in overcrowded housing. Estimates from multivariable Poisson regression models were used to derive a Small Area Vulnerability Index. RESULTS: Four vulnerability measures were independently associated with age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality. Each SD increase in the proportion of the population (1) living in care homes, (2) admitted to hospital in the past 5 years for a long-term health condition, (3) from an ethnic minority background and (4) living in overcrowded housing was associated with a 28%, 19% 8% and 11% increase in age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality rate, respectively. CONCLUSION: Vulnerability to COVID-19 was noticeably higher in the North West, West Midlands and North East regions, with high levels of vulnerability clustered in some communities. Our analysis indicates the communities who will be most at risk from a second wave of the pandemic.

Local government funding and life expectancy in England: a longitudinal ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Since 2010, large reductions in funding for local government services have been introduced in England. These reductions in funding have potentially led to reduced provision of health-promoting public services. We aimed to investigate whether areas that showed a greater decline in funding also had more adverse trends in life expectancy and premature mortality. METHODS: In this longitudinal ecological study, we linked annual data from the Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government on local government revenue expenditure and financing to 147 upper-tier local authorities in England between 2013 and 2017 with data from Public Health England, on male and female life expectancy at birth, male and female life expectancy at age 65 years, and premature (younger than 75 years) all-cause mortality rate for male and female individuals. Local authorities were excluded if their populations were too small or if changes in boundaries meant consistent data were not available. Using multivariable fixed-effects panel regression models, and controlling for local socioeconomic conditions, we estimated whether changes in local funding from 2013 were associated with changes in life expectancy and premature mortality. We included a set of alternative model specifications to test the robustness of our findings. FINDINGS: Between 2013 and 2017, mean per-capita central funding to local governments decreased by 33% or £168 per person (range -£385 to £1). Each £100 reduction in annual per person funding was associated over the study period 2013-17 with an average decrease in life expectancy at birth of 1·3 months (95% CI 0·7-1·9) for male individuals and 1·2 months (0·7-1·7) for female individuals; for life expectancy at age 65 years, the results show a decrease of 0·8 months (0·3-1·3) for male individuals and 1·1 months (0·7-1·5) for female individuals. Funding reductions were greater in more deprived areas and these areas had the worst changes in life expectancy. We estimated that cuts in funding were associated with an increase in the gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived quintiles by 3% for men and 4% for women. Overall reductions in funding during this period were associated with an additional 9600 deaths in people younger than 75 years in England (3800-15 400), an increase of 1·25%. INTERPRETATION: Our findings indicate that cuts in funding for local government might in part explain adverse trends in life expectancy. Given that more deprived areas showed greater reductions in funding, our analysis suggests that inequalities have widened. Since the pandemic, strategies to address these adverse trends in life expectancy and reduce health inequalities could prioritise reinvestment in funding for local government services, particularly within the most deprived areas of England. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) School for Public Health Research, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration North East and North Cumbria, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration North West Coast and Medical Research Council.

What is the qualitative evidence concerning the risks, diagnosis, management and consequences of gastrointestinal infections in the community in the United Kingdom? A systematic review and meta-ethnography.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal (GI) infections cause a significant public health burden worldwide and in the UK with evidence pointing to socio-economic inequalities, particularly among children. Qualitative studies can help us understand why inequalities occur and contribute to developing more effective interventions. This study had two aims: 1. Conduct a systematic review to determine the extent and nature of UK qualitative evidence on gastrointestinal infections; 2. Use meta-ethnography to examine the influences of the differing social contexts in which people live. METHODS: MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of science, CINAHL and JSTOR were searched for UK qualitative studies engaging with the risk, diagnosis, management or consequences of gastrointestinal infections from 1980 to July 2019. Five reviewers were involved in applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, extracting and synthesising data (PROSPERO CRD 42017055157). RESULTS: Searches identified 4080 studies, 18 met the inclusion criteria. The majority (n = 16) contained data relating to the risk of gastrointestinal infection and these made up the main synthesis. The tenets of meta-ethnography were used to glean new understandings of the role of social and environmental contexts in shaping the risk of gastrointestinal infection, specifically with respect to foodborne GI illness. Three main explanations concerning risk emerged from the data: explanations of risk in the community were underpinned by understandings of 'bugs', dirt and where food comes from; risks were negotiated in households alongside diverse processes of decision making around food; and resources available to households shaped food practices. CONCLUSION: This systematic review highlights the scarcity of UK qualitative evidence examining gastrointestinal infections. Apart from risk, questions around diagnosis, management and consequences of illness were largely untouched. No studies investigated patterning by socio-economic status. Nevertheless, the meta-ethnography yielded wider contextual theories and explanations as to why people might not follow food hygiene guidance, giving pointers to the types of qualitative enquiry needed to develop more effective interventions.

Neighbourhood unemployment and other socio-demographic predictors of emergency hospitalisation for infectious intestinal disease in England: A longitudinal ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have observed that infectious intestinal disease (IID) related hospital admissions are higher in more deprived neighbourhoods. These studies have mainly focused on paediatric populations and are cross-sectional in nature. This study examines recent trends in emergency IID admission rates, and uses longitudinal methods to investigate the effects of unemployment (as a time varying measure of neighbourhood deprivation) and other socio-demographic characteristics on IID admissions for adults and children in England. METHODS: A longitudinal ecological analysis was performed using Hospital Episode Statistics on emergency hospitalisations for IID, collected over the time period 2012-17 across England. Analysis was conducted at the neighbourhood (Lower-layer Super Output Area) level for three age groups (0-14; 15-64; 65+ years). Mixed-effect Poisson regression models were used to assess the relationship between trends in neighbourhood unemployment and emergency IID admission rates, whilst controlling for measures of primary and secondary care access, underlying morbidity and the ethnic composition of each neighbourhood. RESULTS: From 2012-17, declining trends in emergency IID admission rates were observed for children and older adults overall, while rates increased for some sub-groups in the population. Each 1 percentage point increase in unemployment was associated with a 6.3, 2.4 and 4% increase in the rate of IID admissions per year for children [IRR=1.06, 95%CI 1.06-1.07], adults [IRR=1.02, 95%CI 1.02-1.03] and older adults [IRR=1.04, 95%CI 1.036-1.043], respectively. Increases in poor primary care access, the percentage of people from a Pakistani ethnic background, and the prevalence of long-term health problems, in a neighbourhood, were also associated with increases in IID admission rates. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing trends in neighbourhood deprivation, as measured by unemployment, were associated with increases in emergency IID admission rates for children and adults in England, despite controlling for measures of healthcare access, underlying morbidity and ethnicity. Research is needed to improve understanding of the mechanisms that explain these inequalities, so that effective policies can be developed to reduce the higher emergency IID admission rates experienced by more disadvantaged communities.