Risk of kidney disease following a pregnancy complicated by diabetes: a longitudinal, population-based data-linkage study among Aboriginal women in the Northern Territory, Australia.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to investigate the risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) or end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) following a pregnancy complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or pre-existing diabetes among Aboriginal women in the Northern Territory (NT), Australia. METHODS: We undertook a longitudinal study of linked healthcare datasets. All Aboriginal women who gave birth between 2000 and 2016 were eligible for inclusion. Diabetes status in the index pregnancy was as recorded in the NT Perinatal Data Collection. Outcomes included any stage of CKD and ESKD as defined by ICD-10 coding in the NT Hospital Inpatient Activity dataset between 2000 and 2018. Risk was compared using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Among 10,508 Aboriginal women, the mean age was 23.1 (SD 6.1) years; 731 (7.0%) had GDM and 239 (2.3%) had pre-existing diabetes in pregnancy. Median follow-up was 12.1 years. Compared with women with no diabetes during pregnancy, women with GDM had increased risk of CKD (9.2% vs 2.2%, adjusted HR 5.2 [95% CI 3.9, 7.1]) and ESKD (2.4% vs 0.4%, adjusted HR 10.8 [95% CI 5.6, 20.8]). Among women with pre-existing diabetes in pregnancy, 29.1% developed CKD (adjusted HR 10.9 [95% CI 7.7, 15.4]) and 9.9% developed ESKD (adjusted HR 28.0 [95% CI 13.4, 58.6]). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Aboriginal women in the NT with GDM or pre-existing diabetes during pregnancy are at high risk of developing CKD and ESKD. Pregnancy presents an important opportunity to identify kidney disease risk. Strategies to prevent kidney disease and address the social determinants of health are needed.

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

Association between maternal hyperglycemia in pregnancy and offspring anthropometry in early childhood: the pandora wave 1 study.

BACKGROUND: In-utero hyperglycemia exposure influences later cardiometabolic risk, although few studies include women with pre-existing type 2 diabetes (T2D) or assess maternal body mass index (BMI) as a potential confounder. OBJECTIVE: To explore the association of maternal T2D and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) with childhood anthropometry, and the influence of maternal BMI on these associations. METHODS: The PANDORA cohort comprises women (n = 1138) and children (n = 1163). Women with GDM and T2D were recruited from a hyperglycemia in pregnancy register, and women with normoglycemia from the community. Wave 1 follow-up included 423 children, aged 1.5-5 years (median follow-up age 2.5 years). Multivariable linear regression assessed associations between maternal antenatal variables, including BMI and glycemic status, with offspring anthropometry (weight, height, BMI, skinfold thicknesses, waist, arm and head circumferences). RESULTS: Greater maternal antenatal BMI was associated with increased anthropometric measures in offspring independent of maternal glycemic status. After adjustment, including for maternal BMI, children exposed to maternal GDM had lower mean weight (-0.54 kg, 95% CI: -0.99, -0.11), BMI (-0.55 kg/m2, 95% CI: -0.91, -0.20), head (-0.52 cm, 95% CI: -0.88, -0.16) and mid-upper arm (-0.32 cm, 95% CI: -0.63, -0.01) circumferences, and greater mean suprailiac skinfold (0.78 mm, 95% CI: 0.13, 1.43), compared to children exposed to normoglycemia. Adjustment for maternal BMI strengthened the negative association between GDM and child weight, BMI and circumferences. Children exposed to maternal T2D had smaller mean head circumference (-0.82 cm, 95% CI: -1.33, -0.31) than children exposed to normoglycemia. Maternal T2D was no longer associated with greater child mean skinfolds (p = 0.14) or waist circumference (p = 0.18) after adjustment for maternal BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Children exposed to GDM had greater suprailiac skinfold thickness than unexposed children, despite having lower mean weight, BMI and mid-upper arm circumference, and both GDM and T2D were associated with smaller mean head circumference. Future research should assess whether childhood anthropometric differences influence lifetime cardiometabolic and neurodevelopmental risk.

Postpartum uptake of diabetes screening tests in women with gestational diabetes: The PANDORA study.

AIMS: To determine rates and predictors of postpartum diabetes screening among Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). METHODS: PANDORA is a prospective longitudinal cohort of women recruited in pregnancy. Postpartum diabetes screening rates at 12 weeks (75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)) and 6, 12 and 18 months (OGTT, glycated haemoglobin [HbA1C ] or fasting plasma glucose) were assessed for women with GDM (n = 712). Associations between antenatal factors and screening with any test (OGTT, HbA1C , fasting plasma glucose) by 6 months postpartum were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Postpartum screening rates with an OGTT by 12 weeks and 6 months postpartum were lower among Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women than non-Indigenous women (18% vs. 30% at 12 weeks, and 23% vs. 37% at 6 months, p < 0.001). Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women were more likely to have completed a 6-month HbA1C compared to non-Indigenous women (16% vs. 2%, p < 0.001). Screening by 6 months postpartum with any test was 41% for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women and 45% for non-Indigenous women (p = 0.304). Characteristics associated with higher screening rates with any test by 6 months postpartum included, insulin use in pregnancy, first pregnancy, not smoking and lower BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Given very high rates of type 2 diabetes among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women, early postpartum screening with the most feasible test should be prioritised to detect prediabetes and diabetes for intervention.

Pancreatitis and post-pancreatitis diabetes in Central Australia.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatitis and diabetes are common among Aboriginal people of Central Australia. The contribution of pancreatitis to the development of post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus (PPDM) is not known. AIMS: To describe among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people living in Central Australia, (i) the prevalence and aetiology of acute (AP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP), and (ii) diagnosis of new onset diabetes after pancreatitis. METHODS: Retrospective medical record review of patients ≥15 years admitted to hospitals in the Central Australia Health Service between 2009 and 2018 with pancreatitis. Prevalence as a proportion of the resident population and aetiology of AP and CP were determined. Diagnosis of new onset diabetes after admission with pancreatitis was assessed. RESULTS: Of the 638 patients assessed, 73% were Aboriginal and 48% female. The annual prevalence in 2009 and 2018 for AP was 171 and 203 per 100 000 persons, and for CP was 206 and 114 per 100 000 persons respectively. Rates were high in Aboriginal people. Alcohol aetiology was most common in Aboriginal people (66%) and biliary aetiology in non-Aboriginal people (37%). A diagnosis of diabetes after pancreatitis was detected in 125 (29%) of 438 patients who did not have a diabetes diagnosis previously recorded, and 20 of the 22 tested for diabetes-associated antibodies were negative, fitting criteria for PPDM. CONCLUSION: Prevalence of AP and CP in Central Australia was higher in Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal people. Few patients with diabetes recorded after pancreatitis had appropriate PPDM diagnostic testing. Interdisciplinary education on the diagnosis of PPDM is required.

A systematic review of trends in all-cause mortality among people with diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We examined all-cause mortality trends in people with diabetes and compared them with trends among people without diabetes. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL databases were searched for observational studies published from 1980 to 2019 reporting all-cause mortality rates across ≥2 time periods in people with diabetes. Mortality trends were examined by ethnicity, age and sex within comparable calendar periods. RESULTS: Of 30,295 abstracts screened, 35 studies were included, providing data on 69 separate ethnic-specific or sex-specific populations with diabetes since 1970. Overall, 43% (3/7), 53% (10/19) and 74% (32/43) of the populations studied had decreasing trends in all-cause mortality rates in people with diabetes in 1970-1989, 1990-1999 and 2000-2016, respectively. In 1990-1999 and 2000-2016, mortality rates declined in 75% (9/12) and 78% (28/36) of predominantly Europid populations, and in 14% (1/7) and 57% (4/7) of non-Europid populations, respectively. In 2000-2016, mortality rates declined in 33% (4/12), 65% (11/17), 88% (7/8) and 76% (16/21) of populations aged <40, 40-54, 55-69 and ≥70 years, respectively. Among the 33 populations with separate mortality data for those with and without diabetes, 60% (6/10) of the populations with diabetes in 1990-1999 and 58% (11/19) in 2000-2016 had an annual reduction in mortality rates that was similar to or greater than in those without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: All-cause mortality has declined in the majority of predominantly Europid populations with diabetes since 2000, and the magnitude of annual mortality reduction matched or exceeded that observed in people without diabetes in nearly 60% of populations. Patterns of diabetes mortality remain uncertain in younger age groups and non-Europid populations. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration ID CRD42019095974. Graphical abstract.

Associations of gestational diabetes and type 2 diabetes during pregnancy with breastfeeding at hospital discharge and up to 6 months: the PANDORA study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and obesity experience lower rates of breastfeeding. Little is known about breastfeeding among mothers with type 2 diabetes. Australian Indigenous women have a high prevalence of type 2 diabetes in pregnancy. We aimed to evaluate the association of hyperglycaemia, including type 2 diabetes, with breastfeeding outcomes. METHODS: Indigenous (n = 495) and non-Indigenous (n = 555) participants of the Pregnancy And Neonatal Diabetes Outcomes in Remote Australia (PANDORA) cohort included women without hyperglycaemia in pregnancy (n = 222), with GDM (n = 684) and with type 2 diabetes (n = 144). The associations of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy and breastfeeding at hospital discharge, 6 weeks and 6 months post-partum were evaluated with logistic regression, after adjustment for maternal obesity, ethnicity, maternal and neonatal characteristics. RESULTS: Indigenous women were more likely to predominantly breastfeed at 6 weeks across all levels of hyperglycaemia. Compared with women with no hyperglycaemia in pregnancy, women with type 2 diabetes had lower odds for exclusive breastfeeding at discharge (adjusted OR for exclusive breastfeeding 0.4 [95% CI 0.2, 0.8] p = 0.006). At 6 weeks and 6 months, the relationship between type 2 diabetes and predominant breastfeeding was not statistically significant (6 weeks 0.7 [0.3, 1.6] p = 0.40, 6 months 0.8 [0.4, 1.6] p = 0.60). Women with gestational diabetes were as likely to achieve predominant breastfeeding at 6 weeks and 6 months as women without hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Indigenous women had high rates of breastfeeding. Women with type 2 diabetes had difficulty establishing exclusive breastfeeding at hospital discharge. Further research is needed to assess the impact on long-term breastfeeding outcomes. Graphical abstract.

Cord blood metabolic markers are strong mediators of the effect of maternal adiposity on fetal growth in pregnancies across the glucose tolerance spectrum: the PANDORA study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to assess associations between cord blood metabolic markers and fetal overgrowth, and whether cord markers mediated the impact of maternal adiposity on neonatal anthropometric outcomes among children born to Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australian women with normal glucose tolerance (NGT), gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and pregestational type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: From the Pregnancy and Neonatal Outcomes in Remote Australia (PANDORA) study, an observational cohort of 1135 mother-baby pairs, venous cord blood was available for 645 singleton babies (49% Indigenous Australian) of women with NGT (n = 129), GDM (n = 419) and type 2 diabetes (n = 97). Cord glucose, triacylglycerol, HDL-cholesterol, C-reactive protein (CRP) and C-peptide were measured. Multivariable logistic and linear regression were used to assess the associations between cord blood metabolic markers and the outcomes of birthweight z score, sum of skinfold thickness (SSF), being large for gestational age (LGA) and percentage of body fat. Pathway analysis assessed whether cord markers mediated the associations between maternal and neonatal adiposity. RESULTS: Elevated cord C-peptide was significantly associated with increasing birthweight z score (ß 0.57 [95% CI 0.42, 0.71]), SSF (ß 0.83 [95% CI 0.41, 1.25]), percentage of body fat (ß 1.20 [95% CI 0.69, 1.71]) and risk for LGA [OR 3.14 [95% CI 2.11, 4.68]), after adjusting for age, ethnicity and diabetes type. Cord triacylglycerol was negatively associated with birthweight z score for Indigenous Australian women only. No associations between cord glucose, HDL-cholesterol and CRP >0.3 mg/l (2.9 nmol/l) with neonatal outcomes were observed. C-peptide mediated 18% (95% CI 13, 36) of the association of maternal BMI with LGA and 11% (95% CI 8, 17) of the association with per cent neonatal fat. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Cord blood C-peptide is an important mediator of the association between maternal and infant adiposity, across the spectrum of maternal glucose tolerance.

Association Between Depressive Symptoms and Incident Cardiovascular Diseases.

Importance: It is uncertain whether depressive symptoms are independently associated with subsequent risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Objective: To characterize the association between depressive symptoms and CVD incidence across the spectrum of lower mood. Design, Setting, and Participants: A pooled analysis of individual-participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 162 036 participants; 21 cohorts; baseline surveys, 1960-2008; latest follow-up, March 2020) and the UK Biobank (401 219 participants; baseline surveys, 2006-2010; latest follow-up, March 2020). Eligible participants had information about self-reported depressive symptoms and no CVD history at baseline. Exposures: Depressive symptoms were recorded using validated instruments. ERFC scores were harmonized across studies to a scale representative of the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale (range, 0-60; ≥16 indicates possible depressive disorder). The UK Biobank recorded the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire 2 (PHQ-2; range, 0-6; ≥3 indicates possible depressive disorder). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were incident fatal or nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and CVD (composite of the 2). Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher log CES-D or PHQ-2 adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and diabetes were reported. Results: Among 162 036 participants from the ERFC (73%, women; mean age at baseline, 63 years [SD, 9 years]), 5078 CHD and 3932 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 9.5 years). Associations with CHD, stroke, and CVD were log linear. The HR per 1-SD higher depression score for CHD was 1.07 (95% CI, 1.03-1.11); stroke, 1.05 (95% CI, 1.01-1.10); and CVD, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.04-1.08). The corresponding incidence rates per 10 000 person-years of follow-up in the highest vs the lowest quintile of CES-D score (geometric mean CES-D score, 19 vs 1) were 36.3 vs 29.0 for CHD events, 28.0 vs 24.7 for stroke events, and 62.8 vs 53.5 for CVD events. Among 401 219 participants from the UK Biobank (55% were women, mean age at baseline, 56 years [SD, 8 years]), 4607 CHD and 3253 stroke events were recorded (median follow-up, 8.1 years). The HR per 1-SD higher depression score for CHD was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.08-1.14); stroke, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.06-1.14); and CVD, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08-1.13). The corresponding incidence rates per 10 000 person-years of follow-up among individuals with PHQ-2 scores of 4 or higher vs 0 were 20.9 vs 14.2 for CHD events, 15.3 vs 10.2 for stroke events, and 36.2 vs 24.5 for CVD events. The magnitude and statistical significance of the HRs were not materially changed after adjustment for additional risk factors. Conclusions and Relevance: In a pooled analysis of 563 255 participants in 22 cohorts, baseline depressive symptoms were associated with CVD incidence, including at symptom levels lower than the threshold indicative of a depressive disorder. However, the magnitude of associations was modest.

Development and Use of Prediction Models for Classification of Cardiovascular Risk of Remote Indigenous Australians.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death for Indigenous Australians. There is widespread belief that current tools have deficiencies for assessing CVD risk in this high-risk population. We sought to develop a 5-year CVD risk score using a wide range of known risk factors to further improve CVD risk prediction in this population. METHODS: We used clinical and demographic information on Indigenous people aged between 30 and 74 years without a history of CVD events who participated in the Well Person's Health Check (WPHC), a community-based survey. Baseline assessments were conducted between 1998 and 2000, and data were linked to administrative hospitalisation and death records for identification of CVD events. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the 5-year CVD risk, and the Harrell's c-statistic and the modified Hosmer-Lemeshow (mH-L) χ2 statistic to assess the model discrimination and calibration, respectively. RESULTS: The study sample consisted of 1,583 individuals (48.1% male; mean age 45.0 year). The risk score consisted of sex, age, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, waist circumference, triglycerides, and albumin creatinine ratio. The bias-corrected c-statistic was 0.72 and the bias-corrected mH-L χ2 statistic was 12.01 (p-value, 0.212), indicating good discrimination and calibration, respectively. Using our risk score, the CVD risk of the Indigenous Australians could be stratified to a greater degree compared to a recalibrated Framingham risk score. CONCLUSIONS: A seven-factor risk score could satisfactorily stratify 5-year risk of CVD in an Indigenous Australian cohort. These findings inform future research targeting CVD risk in Indigenous Australians.

Joint associations of smoking and television viewing time on cancer and cardiovascular disease mortality.

Excessive sitting time and smoking are pro-inflammatory lifestyle factors that are associated with both cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. However, their joint associations have not been investigated. We examined the associations of television (TV) viewing time with cancer and CVD mortality, according to smoking status, among 7,498 non-smokers (34% ex-smokers) and 1,409 current-smokers in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study. During 117,506 person-years (median 13.6 years) of follow-up, there were 346 cancer and 209 CVD-related deaths. Including an interaction between TV time and smoking status in the model significantly improved the goodness of fit for cancer (p = 0.01) but not CVD mortality (p = 0.053). In the multivariate-adjusted model, every additional hr/d of TV time was associated with increased risk of cancer-related (HR 1.23; 95% CI 1.08-1.40), but not CVD-related mortality (HR 1.16; 95% CI 0.97-1.38) in current-smokers. Elevated multivariate-adjusted cancer mortality HRs were observed for current-smokers watching 2 to <4 hr/d (HR 1.45; 95% CI 0.78-2.71) and ≥4 hr/d (HR 2.26; 95% CI 1.10-4.64), compared to those watching <2 hr/d. Current-smokers watching 2 to <4 hr/d (HR 1.07; 95% CI 0.45-2.53) and ≥4 hr/d (HR 1.92; 95% CI 0.76-4.84) did not have a significantly higher risk of CVD mortality, compared to <2 hr/d. No associations were observed for non-smokers. These findings show an association of TV, a common sedentary behavior, with cancer mortality in current-smokers. The association with CVD mortality was less clear. Further exploration in larger data sets is warranted. Limiting TV viewing time may be of benefit in reducing cancer mortality risk in current-smokers.

Polyunsaturated fatty acid intake and risk of cardiovascular mortality in a low fish-consuming population: a prospective cohort analysis.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) intake (n-6 and n-3) and mortality in a population-based sample with a low fish intake. METHODS: Cox regression was used to examine the relationships between dietary PUFA intake and all-cause or CVD mortality in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab) cohort, a population of 11,247 Australians aged ≥25 years recruited in 1999/2000 and followed until 2012. Demographic, lifestyle and behavioural information were collected by questionnaire and fasting blood tests undertaken. Dietary intake was collected by a 121-item food frequency questionnaire. Vital status and causes of death were collected by death registry linkage. RESULTS: Those in the highest quintile of n-6 PUFA intake had lower risk of CVD mortality (HR 0.57, 95 % CI 0.38-0.86) after age and sex adjustment, but this failed to retain significance after further risk factor adjustment. Consumption of ≥1 serves/week of non-fried fish was associated with reduced risk of CVD mortality (HR 0.64, 95 % CI 0.45-0.91, p = 0.013) compared to those eating less than 1 serve/month, after sex and age adjustment, but did not retain significance after further adjustment. However, long-chain n-3 intake was not associated with CVD mortality, and those in the highest quintile of n-3 intake had a higher risk of all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not support previous suggestions that n-6 PUFA have adverse effects on CVD risk. Greater intake of non-fried fish was associated with lower risk of CVD mortality, but those with the highest total n-3 intake were at slightly increased risk of all-cause mortality.

C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and cardiovascular disease prediction.

BACKGROUND: There is debate about the value of assessing levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other biomarkers of inflammation for the prediction of first cardiovascular events. METHODS: We analyzed data from 52 prospective studies that included 246,669 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease to investigate the value of adding CRP or fibrinogen levels to conventional risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. We calculated measures of discrimination and reclassification during follow-up and modeled the clinical implications of initiation of statin therapy after the assessment of CRP or fibrinogen. RESULTS: The addition of information on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a prognostic model for cardiovascular disease that included age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level increased the C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, by 0.0050. The further addition to this model of information on CRP or fibrinogen increased the C-index by 0.0039 and 0.0027, respectively (P<0.001), and yielded a net reclassification improvement of 1.52% and 0.83%, respectively, for the predicted 10-year risk categories of "low" (<10%), "intermediate" (10% to <20%), and "high" (≥20%) (P<0.02 for both comparisons). We estimated that among 100,000 adults 40 years of age or older, 15,025 persons would initially be classified as being at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event if conventional risk factors alone were used to calculate risk. Assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥20% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), additional targeted assessment of CRP or fibrinogen levels in the 13,199 remaining participants at intermediate risk could help prevent approximately 30 additional cardiovascular events over the course of 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: In a study of people without known cardiovascular disease, we estimated that under current treatment guidelines, assessment of the CRP or fibrinogen level in people at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event could help prevent one additional event over a period of 10 years for every 400 to 500 people screened. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality.

IMPORTANCE: The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE: To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES: A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS: In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Glycated hemoglobin measurement and prediction of cardiovascular disease.

IMPORTANCE: The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether adding information on HbA1c values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294,998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5% to <7.5%), and high (≥ 7.5%) risk. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20,840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13,237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA1c values and CVD risk. The association between HbA1c values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA1c was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (-0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA1c assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA1c values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk.

Prevalence and incidence of diabetes among Aboriginal people in remote communities of the Northern Territory, Australia: a retrospective, longitudinal data-linkage study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence and incidence of diabetes among Aboriginal peoples in remote communities of the Northern Territory (NT), Australia. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis of linked clinical and administrative data sets from 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2019. SETTING: Remote health centres using the NT Government Primary Care Information System (51 out of a total of 84 remote health centres in the NT). PARTICIPANTS: All Aboriginal clients residing in remote communities serviced by these health centres (N=21 267). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Diabetes diagnoses were established using hospital and primary care coding, biochemistry and prescription data. RESULTS: Diabetes prevalence across all ages increased from 14.4% (95% CI: 13.9% to 14.9%) to 17.0% (95% CI: 16.5% to 17.5%) over 7 years. Among adults (≥20 years), the 2018/2019 diabetes prevalence was 28.6% (95% CI: 27.8% to 29.4%), being higher in Central Australia (39.5%, 95% CI: 37.8% to 41.1%) compared with the Top End region (24.2%, 95% CI: 23.3% to 25.1%, p<0.001). Between 2016/2017 and 2018/2019, diabetes incidence across all ages was 7.9 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 7.3 to 8.7 per 1000 person-years). The adult incidence of diabetes was 12.6 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 11.5 to 13.8 per 1000 person-years). CONCLUSIONS: The burden of diabetes in the remote Aboriginal population of the NT is among the highest in the world. Strengthened systems of care and public health prevention strategies, developed in partnership with Aboriginal communities, are needed.

Association between hyperglycaemia in pregnancy and growth of offspring in early childhood: The PANDORA study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have assessed whether children exposed to in utero hyperglycaemia experience different growth trajectories compared to unexposed children. OBJECTIVES: To assess association of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) with early childhood weight, length/height and body mass index (BMI) trajectories, and with timing and magnitude of peak BMI in infancy. METHODS: PANDORA is a birth cohort recruited from an Australian hyperglycaemia in pregnancy register, and women with normoglycaemia recruited from the community. Offspring growth measures were obtained from health records over a median follow-up of 3.0 years (interquartile range 1.9-4.0). This analysis included children born to Aboriginal mothers with in utero normoglycaemia (n = 95), GDM (n = 228) or T2D (n = 131). Growth trajectories (weight, length/height and BMI) were estimated using linear mixed models with cubic spline functions of child age. RESULTS: After adjustment for maternal factors (age, BMI, parity, smoking, and socioeconomic measures) and child factors (age, gestational age at birth, and sex), children born to mothers with T2D or GDM had lower weight, length/height and BMI trajectories in infancy than children born to mothers with normoglycaemia, but similar weight and BMI by completion of follow-up. Children exposed to T2D had lower mean peak BMI 17.6 kg/m2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 17.3-18.0) than children exposed to normoglycaemia (18.6 kg/m2 [18.1-18.9]) (p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal hyperglycaemia was associated with differences in early childhood growth trajectories after adjustment for maternal BMI. Exploration of associations between in utero hyperglycaemia exposure and growth trajectories into later childhood is required.

Mortality Effects of Hypothetical Interventions on Physical Activity and TV Viewing.

INTRODUCTION: Long-term effects of physical activity and television (TV) viewing on mortality have been inferred from observational studies. The associations observed do not allow for inferences about the effects of population interventions and could be subject to bias due to time-varying confounding. METHODS: Using data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study, collected in 1999-2000 (T0), 2004-2005 (T1), and 2011-2012 (T2), we applied the parametric g-formula to estimate cumulative risks of death under hypothetical interventions on physical activity and/or TV viewing determined from self-report while adjusting for time-varying confounding. RESULTS: In the 6377 participants followed up for 13 yr from 2004 to 2005 to death or censoring in 2017, 781 participants died. The observed cumulative risk of death was 12.2%. The most effective hypothetical intervention was to increase weekly physical activity to >300 min (risk ratio (RR), 0.66 (0.46-0.86) compared with a "worst-case" scenario; RR, 0.83 (0.73-0.94) compared with no intervention). Reducing daily TV viewing to <2 h in addition to physical activity interventions did not show added survival benefits. Reducing TV viewing alone was least effective in reducing mortality (RR, 0.85 (0.60-1.10) compared with the worst-case scenario; RR, 1.06 (0.93-1.20) compared with no intervention). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggested that sustained interventions to increase physical activity could lower all-cause mortality over a 13-yr period, and there might be limited gain from intervening to reduce TV viewing time in a relatively healthy population.