Prognostic value of blood mRNA expression signatures in castration-resistant prostate cancer: a prospective, two-stage study.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers are urgently needed to dissect the heterogeneity of prostate cancer between patients to improve treatment and accelerate drug development. We analysed blood mRNA expression arrays to identify patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer with poorer outcome. METHODS: Whole blood was collected into PAXgene tubes from patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer and patients with prostate cancer selected for active surveillance. In stage I (derivation set), patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer were used as cases and patients under active surveillance were used as controls. These patients were recruited from The Royal Marsden Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (Sutton, UK) and The Beatson West of Scotland Cancer Centre (Glasgow, UK). In stage II (validation-set), patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer recruited from the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (New York, USA) were assessed. Whole-blood RNA was hybridised to Affymetrix U133plus2 microarrays. Expression profiles were analysed with Bayesian latent process decomposition (LPD) to identify RNA expression profiles associated with castration-resistant prostate cancer subgroups; these profiles were then confirmed by quantative reverse transcriptase (qRT) PCR studies and correlated with overall survival in both the test-set and validation-set. FINDINGS: LPD analyses of the mRNA expression data divided the evaluable patients in stage I (n=94) into four groups. All patients in LPD1 (14 of 14) and most in LPD2 (17 of 18) had castration-resistant prostate cancer. Patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer and those under active surveillance comprised LPD3 (15 of 31 castration-resistant prostate cancer) and LDP4 (12 of 21 castration-resistant prostate cancer). Patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer in the LPD1 subgroup had features associated with worse prognosis and poorer overall survival than patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer in other LPD subgroups (LPD1 overall survival 10·7 months [95% CI 4·1-17·2] vs non-LPD1 25·6 months [18·0-33·4]; p<0·0001). A nine-gene signature verified by qRT-PCR classified patients into this LPD1 subgroup with a very low percentage of misclassification (1·2%). The ten patients who were initially unclassifiable by the LPD analyses were subclassified by this signature. We confirmed the prognostic utility of this nine-gene signature in the validation castration-resistant prostate cancer cohort, where LPD1 membership was also associated with worse overall survival (LPD1 9·2 months [95% CI 2·1-16·4] vs non-LPD1 21·6 months [7·5-35·6]; p=0·001), and remained an independent prognostic factor in multivariable analyses for both cohorts. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that whole-blood gene profiling could identify gene-expression signatures that stratify patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer into distinct prognostic groups. FUNDING: AstraZeneca, Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre, Prostate Cancer Charity, Prostate Cancer Foundation.

Plasma Androgen Receptor Copy Number Status at Emergence of Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer: A Pooled Multicohort Analysis.

PURPOSE: Increases in androgen receptor (AR) copy number (CN) can be detected in plasma DNA when patients develop metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. We aim to evaluate the association between AR CN as a continuous variable and clinical outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: PCR2023 was an international, multi-institution, open-label, phase II study of abiraterone acetate plus prednisolone (AAP) or abiraterone acetate plus dexamethasone that included plasma AR assessment as a predefined exploratory secondary end point. Plasma AR CN data (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01867710) from this study (n = 133) were pooled with data from the following three other cohorts: cohort A, which was treated with either AAP or enzalutamide (n = 73); the PREMIERE trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02288936) of biomarkers for enzalutamide (n = 94); and a phase II trial from British Columbia (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02125357) that randomly assigned men to either AAP or enzalutamide (n = 201). The primary outcome measures for the biomarker analysis were overall survival and progression-free survival. RESULTS: Using multivariable fractional polynomials analysis using Cox regression models, a nonlinear relationship between plasma AR CN and outcome was identified for overall survival, where initially for small incremental gains in CN there was a large added hazard ratio that plateaued at higher CN. The CN cut point associated with the highest local hazard ratio was 1.92. A similar nonlinear association was observed with progression-free survival. In an exploratory analysis of PCR2023, the time from start of long-term androgen-deprivation therapy to start of AAP or abiraterone acetate plus dexamethasone was significantly shorter in patients with plasma AR CN of 1.92 or greater than patients with plasma AR CN of less than 1.92 (43 v 130 weeks, respectively; P = .005). This was confirmed in cohort A (P = .003), the PREMIERE cohort (P = .03), and the British Colombia cohort (P = .003). CONCLUSION: Patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer can be dichotomized by a plasma AR CN cut point of 1.92. Plasma AR CN value of 1.92 or greater identifies aggressive disease that is poorly responsive to AR targeting and is associated with a prior short response to primary androgen-deprivation therapy.