The APACHE III prognostic system. Risk prediction of hospital mortality for critically ill hospitalized adults.

The objective of this study was to refine the APACHE (Acute Physiology, Age, Chronic Health Evaluation) methodology in order to more accurately predict hospital mortality risk for critically ill hospitalized adults. We prospectively collected data on 17,440 unselected adult medical/surgical intensive care unit (ICU) admissions at 40 US hospitals (14 volunteer tertiary-care institutions and 26 hospitals randomly chosen to represent intensive care services nationwide). We analyzed the relationship between the patient's likelihood of surviving to hospital discharge and the following predictive variables: major medical and surgical disease categories, acute physiologic abnormalities, age, preexisting functional limitations, major comorbidities, and treatment location immediately prior to ICU admission. The APACHE III prognostic system consists of two options: (1) an APACHE III score, which can provide initial risk stratification for severely ill hospitalized patients within independently defined patient groups; and (2) an APACHE III predictive equation, which uses APACHE III score and reference data on major disease categories and treatment location immediately prior to ICU admission to provide risk estimates for hospital mortality for individual ICU patients. A five-point increase in APACHE III score (range, 0 to 299) is independently associated with a statistically significant increase in the relative risk of hospital death (odds ratio, 1.10 to 1.78) within each of 78 major medical and surgical disease categories. The overall predictive accuracy of the first-day APACHE III equation was such that, within 24 h of ICU admission, 95 percent of ICU admissions could be given a risk estimate for hospital death that was within 3 percent of that actually observed (r2 = 0.41; receiver operating characteristic = 0.90). Recording changes in the APACHE III score on each subsequent day of ICU therapy provided daily updates in these risk estimates. When applied across the individual ICUs, the first-day APACHE III equation accounted for the majority of variation in observed death rates (r2 = 0.90, p less than 0.0001).

Application of the APACHE III prognostic system in Brazilian intensive care units: a prospective multicenter study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare patients and their outcomes at ten Brazilian intensive care units (ICUs) with those reported from the United States. DESIGN: Prospective multicenter inception cohort study. SETTING: Ten Brazilian adult medical-surgical ICUs. PATIENTS: 1734 consecutive adult ICU admissions. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: We used demographic, clinical and physiologic information and the APACHE III prognostic system to predict risk of hospital death for 1734 ICU admissions. We then divided the observed by the predicted hospital death rate to calculate standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for patient groups and each ICU. Hospital mortality for Brazilian patients (34%) was double that found in the United States (17%, p < 0.01). Discrimination of survivors from non-survivors using APACHE III was good (area under a receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.82), but the predicted risk of death was significantly (p < 0.0001) lower than observed outcome (SMR = 1.67). Three of the ten Brazilian ICUs, however, had SMRs of 1.01 to 1.1 and no significant difference between observed and predicted outcomes; the remaining seven ICUs had significantly higher SMRs, ranging from 1.50 to 2.30. CONCLUSION: The APACHE III prognostic system was a good discriminator of hospital mortality for ICU admissions at 10 Brazilian ICUs. There was substantial and significant variation, however, in SMRs among the Brazilian ICUs, which suggests that further evaluations of international differences in intensive care using a common risk assessment system should be performed and factors associated with variations in risk-adjusted mortality scrutinized.

The importance of technology for achieving superior outcomes from intensive care. Brazil APACHE III Study Group.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that technology availability, staffing, and diagnostic diversity in an intensive care unit (ICU) are associated with the ability to decrease hospital mortality. DESIGN: Prospective multicenter descriptive cohort study. SETTING: Ten Brazilian medical-surgical ICUs. PATIENTS: 1734 consecutive adult ICU admissions. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: We recorded the amount of technology, number of diagnoses, and availability of nurses at each ICU. We also used demographic, clinical and physiologic information for an average of 173 admissions to each ICU to calculate standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for each ICU. The mean SMR for the ten ICUs was 1.67 (range 1.01-2.30). A greater availability of ICU equipment and services was significantly (p < 0.001) associated with a lower SMR. CONCLUSION: The ability of Brazilian ICUs to reduce hospital mortality is associated with the amount of technology available in these units.

APACHE III study: a summary.

This paper summarizes the APACHE III Study now being performed by the ICU Research Unit at the George Washington University Medical Center. It presents a review of the material included in a recent detailed description of the APACHE III Study and introduces new work being developed with data from Brazilian hospitals.

Glasgow Coma Scale score in the evaluation of outcome in the intensive care unit: findings from the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the ability of the Glasgow Coma Scale score to predict hospital mortality rate for adult medical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU) patients without trauma. DESIGN: A prospective cohort analysis of adult medical-surgical patients from a nationally representative sample of 40 U.S. hospitals. PATIENTS: 15,973 consecutive, nontraumatic ICU admissions and a comparison group of 687 head trauma admissions. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Patients' gender, age, treatment location before ICU admission, comorbidities, admission diagnosis, daily physiologic measurements, Glasgow Coma Scale score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE III) score, subsequent hospital mortality rate, and unit-specific sedation practices were noted. Hospital mortality rates were stratified by the first ICU day Glasgow Coma Scale score for all admissions. The relationship between the Glasgow Coma Scale score and outcome for two high mortality medical diagnoses (post-cardiac arrest and sepsis) were also examined and compared to the relationship found in patients with head trauma. The Glasgow Coma Scale score on ICU admission had a highly significant (r2 = .922, p < .0001) but nonlinear relationship with subsequent outcome in ICU patients without trauma. Discrimination of patients into high- or low-risk prognostic groups was good, but discrimination in the intermediate levels (Glasgow Coma Scale score of 7 to 11) was reduced. This relationship varied within the operative and nonoperative groups, and also within different disease categories, various age groups, and certain ranges of the Glasgow Coma Scale score. A reduced initial Glasgow Coma Scale score associated with sepsis was a combination of factors associated with a higher mortality rate than that found in patients with head trauma. The proportion of patients who could not be assigned a Glasgow Coma Scale score because of sedation/paralysis varied widely across ICUs. The overall predictive capability of the APACHE III Prognostic Scoring System was improved by incorporating the Glasgow Coma Scale score. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the prognostic importance of admission levels of consciousness as measured by the Glasgow Coma Scale score on ICU and hospital mortality rates. We concluded that the Glasgow Coma Scale score may be used to stratify and predict mortality risk in general intensive care patients, but lack of sensitivity in the intermediate range of Glasgow Coma Scale Score should be noted. Ideally, the Glasgow Coma Scale score should also be applied in the context of other physiologic information and the patient's specific diagnosis. Variation in the use of sedatives in different ICUs means that imputing or substituting a value other than normal for an unobtainable Glasgow Coma Scale score may introduce a substantial treatment bias into subsequent outcome predictions.