Generating functional protein variants with variational autoencoders.

The vast expansion of protein sequence databases provides an opportunity for new protein design approaches which seek to learn the sequence-function relationship directly from natural sequence variation. Deep generative models trained on protein sequence data have been shown to learn biologically meaningful representations helpful for a variety of downstream tasks, but their potential for direct use in the design of novel proteins remains largely unexplored. Here we show that variational autoencoders trained on a dataset of almost 70000 luciferase-like oxidoreductases can be used to generate novel, functional variants of the luxA bacterial luciferase. We propose separate VAE models to work with aligned sequence input (MSA VAE) and raw sequence input (AR-VAE), and offer evidence that while both are able to reproduce patterns of amino acid usage characteristic of the family, the MSA VAE is better able to capture long-distance dependencies reflecting the influence of 3D structure. To confirm the practical utility of the models, we used them to generate variants of luxA whose luminescence activity was validated experimentally. We further showed that conditional variants of both models could be used to increase the solubility of luxA without disrupting function. Altogether 6/12 of the variants generated using the unconditional AR-VAE and 9/11 generated using the unconditional MSA VAE retained measurable luminescence, together with all 23 of the less distant variants generated by conditional versions of the models; the most distant functional variant contained 35 differences relative to the nearest training set sequence. These results demonstrate the feasibility of using deep generative models to explore the space of possible protein sequences and generate useful variants, providing a method complementary to rational design and directed evolution approaches.

Predicting cardiovascular disease risk using photoplethysmography and deep learning.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for a large proportion of premature deaths in low- and middle-income countries. Early CVD detection and intervention is critical in these populations, yet many existing CVD risk scores require a physical examination or lab measurements, which can be challenging in such health systems due to limited accessibility. We investigated the potential to use photoplethysmography (PPG), a sensing technology available on most smartphones that can potentially enable large-scale screening at low cost, for CVD risk prediction. We developed a deep learning PPG-based CVD risk score (DLS) to predict the probability of having major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death) within ten years, given only age, sex, smoking status and PPG as predictors. We compare the DLS with the office-based refit-WHO score, which adopts the shared predictors from WHO and Globorisk scores (age, sex, smoking status, height, weight and systolic blood pressure) but refitted on the UK Biobank (UKB) cohort. All models were trained on a development dataset (141,509 participants) and evaluated on a geographically separate test (54,856 participants) dataset, both from UKB. DLS's C-statistic (71.1%, 95% CI 69.9-72.4) is non-inferior to office-based refit-WHO score (70.9%, 95% CI 69.7-72.2; non-inferiority margin of 2.5%, p<0.01) in the test dataset. The calibration of the DLS is satisfactory, with a 1.8% mean absolute calibration error. Adding DLS features to the office-based score increases the C-statistic by 1.0% (95% CI 0.6-1.4). DLS predicts ten-year MACE risk comparable with the office-based refit-WHO score. Interpretability analyses suggest that the DLS-extracted features are related to PPG waveform morphology and are independent of heart rate. Our study provides a proof-of-concept and suggests the potential of a PPG-based approach strategies for community-based primary prevention in resource-limited regions.

Robust and data-efficient generalization of self-supervised machine learning for diagnostic imaging.

Machine-learning models for medical tasks can match or surpass the performance of clinical experts. However, in settings differing from those of the training dataset, the performance of a model can deteriorate substantially. Here we report a representation-learning strategy for machine-learning models applied to medical-imaging tasks that mitigates such 'out of distribution' performance problem and that improves model robustness and training efficiency. The strategy, which we named REMEDIS (for 'Robust and Efficient Medical Imaging with Self-supervision'), combines large-scale supervised transfer learning on natural images and intermediate contrastive self-supervised learning on medical images and requires minimal task-specific customization. We show the utility of REMEDIS in a range of diagnostic-imaging tasks covering six imaging domains and 15 test datasets, and by simulating three realistic out-of-distribution scenarios. REMEDIS improved in-distribution diagnostic accuracies up to 11.5% with respect to strong supervised baseline models, and in out-of-distribution settings required only 1-33% of the data for retraining to match the performance of supervised models retrained using all available data. REMEDIS may accelerate the development lifecycle of machine-learning models for medical imaging.

Use of deep learning to develop continuous-risk models for adverse event prediction from electronic health records.

Early prediction of patient outcomes is important for targeting preventive care. This protocol describes a practical workflow for developing deep-learning risk models that can predict various clinical and operational outcomes from structured electronic health record (EHR) data. The protocol comprises five main stages: formal problem definition, data pre-processing, architecture selection, calibration and uncertainty, and generalizability evaluation. We have applied the workflow to four endpoints (acute kidney injury, mortality, length of stay and 30-day hospital readmission). The workflow can enable continuous (e.g., triggered every 6 h) and static (e.g., triggered at 24 h after admission) predictions. We also provide an open-source codebase that illustrates some key principles in EHR modeling. This protocol can be used by interdisciplinary teams with programming and clinical expertise to build deep-learning prediction models with alternate data sources and prediction tasks.