20-Year trends of hospitalisation among people with dementia: a region-wide retrospective cohort study from Lombardy, Italy.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the trends of hospitalisations among people with dementia, linking region-wide hospital and demographic health records. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using hospitalisation health records from the Lombardy region in Italy. METHODS: The study included people aged ≥65 years with a diagnosis of dementia who were hospitalised between 2002 and 2020 in Lombardy, which is the most populated region in Italy with 10 million inhabitants. Using data on resident population, this study computed rates of hospitalisation by calendar year, age, sex and cause of hospitalisation. RESULTS: In total, 340,144 hospitalised patients with dementia were included in the study. The rate of hospitalisation was 100.6 per 10,000 in 2002 and progressively decreased to 65.1 per 10,000 in 2020. The average age at hospitalisation in 2002 was 78.9 years for men and 81.8 years for women, which increased to 82.0 years and 84.2 years, respectively, in 2020. Respiratory diseases caused 10.4% of all hospitalisations in 2002 and grew steadily to 26.8% in 2020, becoming the leading cause of hospital admissions since 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalisation patterns for people with dementia have changed over the last 20 years, reflecting evolving epidemiological trends and the impact of healthcare policies. Region-wide administrative health record data analysis should be further utilised to explore the health needs of people with dementia and inform the planning, implementation and monitoring of effective prevention strategies in this population group.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2022 with focus on ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality rates, though not absolute numbers of deaths, have been decreasing over the last three decades in Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We estimated projections and the number of avoided deaths for total cancer mortality and 10 major cancer sites, between 1989 and 2022, for the European Union (EU), the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain using cancer death certification and population data since 1970 from the World Health Organization and Eurostat. RESULTS: In the EU, we predict 1 269 200 cancer deaths in 2022; corresponding age-standardized rates (world) fall 6% to 126.9 deaths/100 000 in men and 4% to 80.2/100 000 women since 2017. Male lung cancer is expected to fall 10% reaching 30.9/100 000. The rise in female lung cancer mortality slowed (+2% to 13.8/100 000). We estimated 369 000 (23%) avoided deaths in 2022 alone and a total of 5 394 000 (12%) deaths since the peak rate in 1988. Stomach, colorectal, breast and prostate cancers showed substantial declines, between 5% and 16% over the past 5 years. Pancreatic cancer remained stable in men (8.1/100 000) and rose 3% in women (5.9/100 000), becoming the third cause of cancer mortality in the EU (87 300 deaths), overtaking breast cancer (86 300 deaths). The fall in uterine cancers slowed down (-4%) to 4.7/100 000. Bladder cancer fell 9% in men, but was stable in women. Leukaemias fell more than 10%. Ovarian cancer mortality declined over the past decade in all considered countries. EU predicted rates were 4.3/100 000 (-13%) all ages, 1.2/100 000 (-26%) at 20-49, 15.3/100 000 (-11%) at 50-69 and 32.3/100 000 (-11%) at 70-79 years. CONCLUSIONS: We predicted additional declines in cancer mortality rates for 2022. The slowdown in female lung cancer mortality reflects some levelling of smoking in women. Favourable ovarian cancer trends are likely to continue and are largely attributable to the spreading oral contraceptive use and some impact of improved diagnosis and management.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2021 with focus on pancreatic and female lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality statistics for 2021 for the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries plus the UK. We also focused on pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardised (world population) rates for 2021 for total cancers and 10 major cancer sites, using a joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2021. RESULTS: We predicted 1 267 000 cancer deaths for 2021 in the EU, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 130.4/100 000 men (-6.6% since 2015) and 81.0/100 000 for women (-4.5%). We estimated further falls in male lung cancer rates, but still trending upward in women by +6.5%, reaching 14.5/100 000 in 2021. The breast cancer predicted rate in the EU was 13.3/100 000 (-7.8%). The rates for stomach and leukaemias in both sexes and for bladder in males are predicted to fall by >10%; trends for other cancer sites were also favourable, except for the pancreas, which showed stable patterns in both sexes, with predicted rates of 8.1/100 000 in men and 5.6/100 000 in women. Rates for pancreatic cancer in EU men aged 25-49 and 50-64 years declined, respectively, by 10% and 1.8%, while for those aged 65+ years increased by 1.3%. Rates fell for young women only (-3.4%). Over 1989-2021, about 5 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU27 compared with peak rates in 1988. CONCLUSION: Overall cancer mortality continues to fall in both sexes. However, specific focus is needed on pancreatic cancer, which shows a sizeable decline for young men only. Tobacco control remains a priority for the prevention of pancreatic and other tobacco-related cancers, which account for one-third of the total EU cancer deaths, especially in women, who showed less favourable trends.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2020 with a focus on prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Current cancer mortality figures are important for disease management and resource allocation. We estimated mortality counts and rates for 2020 in the European Union (EU) and for its six most populous countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We estimated projections to 2020 for 10 major cancer sites plus all neoplasms and calculated the number of avoided deaths over 1989-2020. RESULTS: Total cancer mortality rates in the EU are predicted to decline reaching 130.1/100 000 men (-5.4% since 2015) and 82.2 in women (-4.1%) in 2020. The predicted number of deaths will increase by 4.7% reaching 1 428 800 in 2020. In women, the upward lung cancer trend is predicted to continue with a rate in 2020 of 15.1/100 000 (higher than that for breast cancer, 13.5) while in men we predicted further falls. Pancreatic cancer rates are also increasing in women (+1.2%) but decreasing in men (-1.9%). In the EU, the prostate cancer predicted rate is 10.0/100 000, declining by 7.1% since 2015; decreases for this neoplasm are ∼8% at age 45-64, 14% at 65-74 and 75-84, and 6% at 85 and over. Poland is the only country with an increasing prostate cancer trend (+18%). Mortality rates for other cancers are predicted to decline further. Over 1989-2020, we estimated over 5 million avoided total cancer deaths and over 400 000 for prostate cancer. CONCLUSION: Cancer mortality predictions for 2020 in the EU are favourable with a greater decline in men. The number of deaths continue to rise due to population ageing. Due to the persistent amount of predicted lung (and other tobacco-related) cancer deaths, tobacco control remains a public health priority, especially for women. Favourable trends for prostate cancer are largely attributable to continuing therapeutic improvements along with early diagnosis.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2019 with focus on breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: To overcome the lag with which cancer statistics become available, we predicted numbers of deaths and rates from all cancers and selected cancer sites for 2019 in the European Union (EU). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrieved cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2014. We obtained estimates for 2019 with a linear regression on number of deaths over the most recent trend period identified by a logarithmic Poisson joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2019. RESULTS: We estimated about 1 410 000 cancer deaths in the EU for 2019, corresponding to age-standardized rates of 130.9/100 000 men (-5.9% since 2014) and 82.9 women (-3.6%). Lung cancer trends in women are predicted to increase 4.4% between 2014 and 2019, reaching a rate of 14.8. The projected rate for breast cancer was 13.4. Favourable trends for major neoplasms are predicted to continue, except for pancreatic cancer. Trends in breast cancer mortality were favourable in all six countries considered, except Poland. The falls were largest in women 50-69 (-16.4%), i.e. the age group covered by screening, but also seen at age 20-49 (-13.8%), while more modest at age 70-79 (-6.1%). As compared to the peak rate in 1988, over 5 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU over the 1989-2019 period. Of these, 440 000 were breast cancer deaths. CONCLUSION: Between 2014 and 2019, cancer mortality will continue to fall in both sexes. Breast cancer rates will fall steadily, with about 35% decline in rates over the last three decades. This is likely due to reduced hormone replacement therapy use, improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatment. Due to population ageing, however, the number of breast cancer deaths is not declining.

Cancer mortality and predictions for 2018 in selected Australasian countries and Russia.

Background: Predicted cancer mortality figures and rates are useful for public health planning. Materials and methods: We retrieved cancer death certification data for 10 major cancer sites and total cancers from the World Health Organization (WHO) database and population data from WHO and United Nations Population Division databases. We obtained figures for Russia, Israel, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, Korea, and Australia in 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths by age group and age-standardized rates (world population) for 2018 by applying a linear regression to mortality data of each age group over the most recent trend segment identified by a joinpoint regression model. Results: Russia had the highest predicted total cancer mortality rates, 158.5/100 000 men and 84.1/100 000 women. Men in the Philippines showed the lowest rates for 2018 (84.6/100 000) and Korean males the most favourable predicted fall (21% between 2012 and 2018). Women in Korea had the lowest total cancer predicted rate (52.5/100 000). Between 1993 and 2018, i.e. by applying the 1993 rates to populations in subsequent years, a substantial number of cancer deaths was avoided in Russia (1 000 000 deaths, 821 000 in men and 179 000 in women), Israel (40 000 deaths, 21 000 in men and 19 000 in women), Hong Kong (63 000 deaths, 40 000 in men and 23 000 in women), Japan (651 000 deaths, 473 000 in men and 178 000 in women), Korea (327 000 deaths, 250 000 in men and 77 000 in women), and Australia (181 000 deaths, 125 000 in men and 56 000 in women). No appreciable reduction in cancer deaths was found in the Philippines. Conclusion: Overall, we predicted falls in cancer mortality. However, these are less marked and later compared with the European Union and United States. Substantial numbers of deaths were avoided in all countries considered except the Philippines. Lung cancer mortality remains exceedingly high in Russian men, despite recent falls.

Cancer mortality in the elderly in 11 countries worldwide, 1970-2015.

BACKGROUND: Population ageing results in an increasing cancer burden in the elderly. We aimed to evaluate time-trends in cancer mortality for adults aged 65 and over for 17 major cancer types and all cancers combined in 11 countries worldwide over the period 1970-2015. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained cancer death certification and population figures from the WHO and PAHO databases. We computed age-standardised (world standard population) rates for individuals aged 65 and over, and applied joinpoint regression models. RESULTS: Age-standardised mortality rates for all cancers combined showed a heterogeneous, but widespread decline. Lung cancer mortality rates have been decreasing among men, and increasing among women. Pancreatic cancer had unfavourable trends in all countries for both sexes. Despite variability across countries, other tobacco-related cancers (except kidney) showed overall favourable trends, except in Poland and Russia. Age-standardised mortality rates from stomach cancer have been declining in all countries for both sexes. Colorectal mortality has been declining, except in Poland and Russia. Liver cancer mortality increased in all countries, except in Japan, France and Italy, which had the highest rates in the past. Breast cancer mortality decreased for most countries, except for Japan, Poland and Russia. Trends for age-standardised uterine cancer rates in the USA, Canada and the UK were increasing over the last decade. Ovarian cancer rates showed declines in most countries. With the exception of Russia, prostate cancer rates showed overall declines. Lymphoid neoplasms rates have been declining in both sexes, except in Poland and Russia. CONCLUSION: Over the last decades, age-standardised cancer mortality in the elderly has been decreasing in major countries worldwide and for major cancer sites, with the major exception of lung and uterine cancer in women and liver, pancreatic and kidney cancers in both sexes. Cancer mortality for the elderly in central and eastern Europe remains comparatively high.

Cancer mortality in Europe in 2015 and an overview of trends since 1990.

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality in Europe has been decreasing since the late 1980s or 1990s in some countries with different patterns in many areas. In this study, we updated trends in cancer mortality in Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted data from the World Health Organization mortality database for 24 cancer sites, 36 European countries and the European Union (EU) as a whole over the 1990-2017 period. We computed age-standardized death rates per 100 000 person-years, and we carried out a joinpoint regression analysis of mortality trends from all cancers and selected major neoplasms. The estimated annual percent change (APC) for each identified linear segment, and the weighted average APC (AAPC) over the entire study period were provided as summary measures of the changes in rates over the time period. RESULTS: In 2015, the age-standardized mortality rates from all cancers in the EU were 137.5 deaths per 100 000 in men and 85.7 in women. Eastern European countries showed the highest rates with values over 150 deaths per 100 000 in men and over 100 deaths per 100 000 in women. Mortality from all cancers in the EU declined annually by 1.5% in men since 2006 and by 0.8% in women since 2007. Most cancer sites showed decreasing trends, with steady declines over the whole period for cancers of stomach, intestines, lung in men, breast and prostate. Unfavourable mortality trends persisted for cancers of liver, lung in women, pancreas, besides skin and kidney in men. CONCLUSIONS: The downward trends in total cancer mortality in Europe still continue over the last decade. However, the trends were less favourable in most eastern European countries. Tobacco control in men (but not in women), improvements in diagnosis and therapy were the main underlying factors of these trends.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2018 with focus on colorectal cancer.

Background: We projected cancer mortality statistics for 2018 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries, using the most recent available data. We focused on colorectal cancer. Materials and methods: We obtained cancer death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, ovary, prostate, bladder, leukaemia, and total cancers from the World Health Organisation database and projected population data from Eurostat. We derived figures for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the EU in 1970-2012. We predicted death numbers by age group and age-standardized (world population) rates for 2018 through joinpoint regression models. Results: EU total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline by 10.3% in men between 2012 and 2018, reaching a predicted rate of 128.9/100 000, and by 5.0% in women with a rate of 83.6. The predicted total number of cancer deaths is 1 382 000 when compared with 1 333 362 in 2012 (+3.6%). We confirmed a further fall in male lung cancer, but an unfavourable trend in females, with a rate of 14.7/100 000 for 2018 (13.9 in 2012, +5.8%) and 94 500 expected deaths, higher than the rate of 13.7 and 92 700 deaths from breast cancer. Colorectal cancer predicted rates are 15.8/100 000 men (-6.7%) and 9.2 in women (-7.5%); declines are expected in all age groups. Pancreatic cancer is stable in men, but in women it rose +2.8% since 2012. Ovarian, uterine and bladder cancer rates are predicted to decline further. In 2018 alone, about 392 300 cancer deaths were avoided compared with peak rates in the late 1980s. Conclusion: We predicted continuing falls in mortality rates from major cancer sites in the EU and its major countries to 2018. Exceptions are pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Improved treatment and-above age 50 years-organized screening may account for recent favourable colorectal cancer trends.

The main causes of death contributing to absolute and relative socio-economic inequality in Italy.

OBJECTIVES: Monitoring socio-economic inequality has become a priority for many governments, especially after the socio-economic changes that followed the 2008 financial crisis. This study aimed at detecting the causes of death with the largest socio-economic inequality in relative and absolute terms in Italy. STUDY DESIGN: This is a historical cohort study. METHODS: We used two regression-based measures of socio-economic inequality, the relative index of inequality (RII) and the slope index of inequality (SII), to rank the causes of death with the highest relative and absolute socio-economic inequality. We obtained these measures on a large census-based cohort study with more than 35 million individuals and 452,273 deaths registered in the period 2012-2014. RESULTS: The causes with the highest relative socio-economic inequality were the following: laryngeal cancer (RII: 6.1, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.8-7.78), AIDS/HIV (RII: 4.8, 95% CI: 3.1-7.4), chronic liver disease (RII: 4.8, 95% CI: 3.2-7.3), and chronic lower respiratory diseases (RII: 4.8, 95% CI: 3.5-6.5) in men, and diabetes (RII: 6.2, 95% CI: 4.8-7.9), AIDS/HIV (RII: 4.5, 95% CI: 2.7-7.7), genitourinary system (RII: 3.8, 95% CI: 2.6-5.4) and chronic liver diseases (RII: 3.6, 95% CI: 2.9-4.5) in women. In absolute terms, lung cancer and ischemic heart diseases contributed more to the overall socio-economic inequality in men, whereas diabetes and ischemic heart diseases accounted for most of the socio-economic inequality in women. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings call for effective policies to reduce the disparities in mortality from ischemic heart diseases, lung cancer, and diabetes taking into account the sex-specific pattern of inequality.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality figures in the European Union (EU) for the year 2017 using most recent available data, with a focus on lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrieved cancer death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organisation and Eurostat databases. Age-standardized (world standard population) rates were computed for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and the EU overall in 1970-2012. We obtained estimates for 2017 by implementing a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: The predicted number of cancer deaths for 2017 in the EU is 1 373 500, compared with 1 333 400 in 2012 (+3%). Cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in both sexes, reaching 131.8/100 000 men (-8.2% when compared with 2012) and 84.5/100 000 women (-3.6%). Mortality rates for all selected cancer sites are predicted to decline, except pancreatic cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women. In men, pancreatic cancer rate is stable, in women it increases by 3.5%. Lung cancer mortality rate in women is predicted to rise to 14.6/100 000 in 2017 (+5.1% since 2012, corresponding to 92 300 predicted deaths), compared with 14.0/100 000 for breast cancer, corresponding to 92 600 predicted deaths. Only younger (25-44) women have favourable lung cancer trends, and rates at this age group are predicted to be similar in women (1.4/100 000) and men (1.2/100 000). In men lung cancer rates are predicted to decline by 10.7% since 2012, and falls are observed in all age groups. CONCLUSION: European cancer mortality projections for 2017 confirm the overall downward trend in rates, with a stronger pattern in men. This is mainly due to different smoking prevalence trends in different generations of men and women. Lung cancer rates in young European women are comparable to those in men, confirming that smoking has the same impact on lung cancer in the two sexes.

Cancer mortality predictions for 2017 in Latin America.

BACKGROUND: From most recent available data, we predicted cancer mortality statistics in selected Latin American countries for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained death certification data from the World Health Organization and population data from the Pan American Health Organization database for all neoplasms and selected cancer sites. We derived figures for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela. Using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint model, we estimated number of deaths and age-standardized (world population) mortality rates in 2017. RESULTS: Total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in all countries. The highest mortality rates for 2017 are in Cuba, i.e. 132.3/100 000 men and 93.3/100 000 women. Mexico had the lowest predicted rates, 64.7/100 000 men and 60.6/100 000 women. In contrast, the total number of cancer deaths is expected to rise due to population ageing and growth. Men showed declines in lung cancer trends in all countries and age groups considered, while only Colombian and Mexican women had downward trends. Stomach and (cervix) uteri rates are predicted to continue their declines, though mortality from these neoplasms remains comparatively high. Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer rates were predicted to decline moderately, as well as leukaemias. There was no clear pattern for pancreatic cancer. Between 1990 and 2017 about 420 000 cancer deaths were avoided in 5 of the 7 countries, no progress was observed in Brazil and Cuba. CONCLUSION: Cancer mortality rates for 2017 in seven selected Latin American countries are predicted to decline, though there was appreciable variability across countries. Mortality from major cancers-including lung and prostate-and all cancers remains comparatively high in Cuba, indicating the need for improved prevention and management.

The global decrease in cancer mortality: trends and disparities.

BACKGROUND: A decrease in cancer mortality has been reported in the United States, Europe, and other high-income regions during the last two decades. Whether similar trends apply to low-to-middle income countries-and globally-is unclear. DESIGN: The aim of this descriptive study is to compare cancer mortality in all countries with high- or intermediate-quality data on death certificates according to the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database for the years 2000 through 2010. We included 60 countries in the analysis and calculated age-adjusted mortality rates for all cancer combined and for the commonest cancers worldwide: lung, stomach, breast, colorectal, uterine, and prostate. RESULTS: A decrease in overall cancer mortality rate of ∼1% per year was observed in higher and lower income regions and in both sexes. In 2010, 696 000 cancer deaths were avoided on a global scale compared with 2000 rates (426 000 in men, 271 000 in women). However, the mortality of liver cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in females increased in many countries'. CONCLUSIONS: The individual risk of dying from cancer decreased in all countries with reliable data. This decrease was chiefly due to favorable trends in the commonest specific cancers. Liver cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women, which show increasing mortality rates, constitute a priority for prevention and further research.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2016 with focus on leukaemias.

BACKGROUND: Current cancer mortality statistics are important for public health decision-making and resource allocation. Age-standardized rates and numbers of deaths are predicted for 2016 in the European Union (EU). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data for stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organization database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected numbers of deaths by age group were obtained for 2016 by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: Projected total cancer mortality trends for 2016 in the EU are favourable in both sexes with rates of 133.5/100 000 men and 85.2/100 000 women (8% and 3% falls since 2011) corresponding to 753 600 and 605 900 deaths in men and women for a total number of 1 359 500 projected cancer deaths (+3% compared with 2011, due to population ageing). In men, lung, colorectal and prostate cancer have fallen 11%, 5% and 8%, respectively, since 2011. Breast and colorectal cancer trends in women are favourable (8% and 7% falls, respectively), but lung and pancreatic cancer rates have risen 5% and 4% since 2011 reaching rates of 14.4 and 5.6/100 000 women. Leukaemias show favourable projected mortality for both sexes and all age groups, with stronger falls in the younger age groups. All ages rates are 4.0/100 000 men and 2.5/100 000 women, with falls of 14% and 12% respectively. CONCLUSION: The 2016 predictions for EU cancer mortality confirm the favourable trends in rates particularly for men. Lung cancer is likely to be the leading site for female cancer rates. Continuing falls in mortality, larger in children and young adults, are predicted in leukaemias, essentially due to advancements in management and therapy, and their subsequent adoption across Europe.

Early weaning is beneficial to prevent atopic dermatitis occurrence in young children.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data on infant feeding practices and allergic diseases are controversial. The purpose of this study was to explore the association of early weaning with the occurrence of atopic dermatitis (AD). METHODS: We conducted a matched case-control study on incident physician-diagnosed AD in early childhood including 451 cases and 451 controls. Data on several factors, including feeding practices, were collected through an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Odds ratios (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated through logistic regression models, conditioned on study center, age, sex, and period of interview, and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Early weaning, defined as the introduction of solid foods at 4 or 5 months of age, was inversely related to the risk of AD, with children weaned at 4 months having lower AD risk (OR = 0.41, 95% CI, 0.20-0.87) compared to those exclusively breastfed. Similar results were observed for weaning started at 5 months of age (OR = 0.39, 95% CI, 0.18-0.83). This association persisted when children with and without family history of allergy were considered separately. Prolonged partial breastfeeding (breastmilk plus milk formulas) was not associated with AD. Consistently, the introduction of a high number of different solid foods reduced the risk of AD (P trend = 0.02 at 4 months of age and P trend = 0.04 at 5 months). CONCLUSION: Our data provide evidence against the preventing role of prolonged exclusive (but not partial) breastfeeding in AD occurrence and confirm recent results indicating a beneficial role of early weaning in AD.

Prevalence of contact allergy in the general population in different European regions.

BACKGROUND: Population-based studies about contact allergy are scarce. OBJECTIVES: To obtain reliable estimates of the prevalence of contact allergy in the general population in Europe. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of a random sample from the general population, aged 18-74 years, in five different European countries (Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Portugal). In total, 12 377 subjects were interviewed and a random sample (n = 3119) patch tested to TRUE Test panels 1-3 and Fragrance Mix (FM) II, hydroxyisohexyl 3-cyclohexene carboxaldehyde (HICC) and sesquiterpene lactone mix. A positive patch test reaction is considered as contact allergy. RESULTS: In total, 27·0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 25·5-28·5] had at least one positive reaction to an allergen of the European baseline series, with a significantly higher prevalence in women than in men. The highest age-standardized prevalences (≥ 1%) were found for nickel (14·5%, 95% CI 13·2-15·8), thiomersal (5·0%, 95% CI 4·2-5·8), cobalt (2·2%, 95% CI 1·7-2·7), FM II (1·9%, 95% CI 1·5-2·5), FM I (1·8%, 95% CI 1·4-2·3), HICC (1·4%, 95% CI 1·0-1·9), p-tert-butylphenol formaldehyde resin (1·3%, 95% CI 0·9-1·7) and para-phenylenediamine (1·0%, 95% CI 0·6-1·3). Only nickel and thiomersal showed a statistically significantly different prevalence for contact allergy among the different European populations. Subjects reporting contact dermatitis in their lifetime (age-standardized prevalence 15·1%, 95% CI 13·8-16·3) had an increased risk for contact allergy (odds ratio 1·9, 95% CI 1·5-2·5). The risk of having a contact allergy was not increased in those with atopic dermatitis (prevalence 7·6%, 95% CI 6·7-8·6; odds ratio 1·0, 95% CI 0·7-1·4). CONCLUSIONS: Contact allergy to at least one allergen of the European baseline series was diagnosed in more than one-quarter of the general European population. Therefore measures to improve the primary prevention of contact allergy have to be enforced.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015: does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: A total of 1,359,100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766,200 men and 592,900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100,000 men and 83.9/100,000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100,000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates--though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325,000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2014.

BACKGROUND: From most recent available data, we projected cancer mortality statistics for 2014, for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Specific attention was given to pancreatic cancer, the only major neoplasm showing unfavorable trends in both sexes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2014 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: In the EU in 2014, 1,323,600 deaths from cancer are predicted (742,500 men and 581,100 women), corresponding to standardized death rates of 138.1/100,000 men and 84.7/100,000 women, falling by 7% and 5%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate cancer) are lower than in 2009, falling by 8%, 4% and 10%, respectively. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favorable trends (-9% and -7%), but female lung cancer rates are predicted to rise 8%. Pancreatic cancer is the only neoplasm with a negative outlook in both sexes. Only in the young (25-49 years), EU trends become more favorable in men, while women keep registering slight predicted rises. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2014 confirm the overall favorable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 20% in women, and the avoidance of over 250,000 deaths in 2014 compared with the peak rate. Notable exceptions are female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes.

Patterns and trends in esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in Europe (1980-2011) and predictions to 2015.

BACKGROUND: Over the last few decades, esophageal cancer incidence and mortality trends varied substantially across Europe, with important differences between sexes and the two main histological subtypes, squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and adenocarcinoma (EAC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: To monitor recent esophageal cancer mortality trends and to compute short-term predictions in the European Union (EU) and selected European countries, we analyzed data provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) for 1980-2011. We also analyzed incidence trends and relative weights of ESCC and EAC across Europe using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. RESULTS: Long-term decreasing trends were observed for male esophageal cancer mortality in several southern and western European countries, whereas in central Europe mortality increased until the mid-1990s and started to stabilize or decline over the last years. In some eastern and northern countries, the rates were still increasing. Mortality among European women remained comparatively low and showed stable or decreasing trends in most countries. Between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009, esophageal cancer mortality declined by 7% (from 5.34 to 4.99/100 000) in EU men, and by 3% (from 1.12 to 1.09/100 000) in EU women. Predictions to 2015 show persistent declines in mortality rates for men in the EU overall, and stable rates for EU women, with rates for 2015 of 4.5/100 000 men (about 22 300 deaths) and 1.1/100 000 women (about 7400 deaths). In northern Europe, EAC is now the predominant histological type among men, while for European women ESCC is more common and corresponding rates are still increasing in several countries. CONCLUSION(S): The observed trends reflect the variations in alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and overweight across European countries.

Trends in mortality from major cancers in the Americas: 1980-2010.

BACKGROUND: Between the 1970s and 2000 mortality in most of Latin America showed favorable trends for some common cancer sites, including stomach and male lung cancer. However, major concerns were related to mortality patterns from other cancers, particularly in women. We provide an up-to-date picture of patterns and trends in cancer mortality in Latin America. METHODS: We analyzed data from the World Health Organization mortality database in 2005-2009 for 20 cancer sites in 11 Latin American countries and, for comparative purposes, in the USA and Canada. We computed age-standardized (world population) rates (per 100 000 person-year) and provided an overview of trends since 1980 using joinpoint regression models. RESULTS: Cancer mortality from some common cancers (including colorectum and lung) is still comparatively low in Latin America, and decreasing trends continue for other cancer sites (including stomach, uterus, male lung cancers) in several countries. However, there were upward trends for colorectal cancer mortality for both sexes, and for lung and breast cancer mortality in women from most countries. During the last decade, lung cancer mortality in women rose by 1%-3% per year in all Latin American countries except Mexico and Costa Rica, whereas rises of about 1% were registered for breast cancer in Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela. Moreover, high mortality from cancer of the cervix uteri was recorded in most countries, with rates over 13/100 000 women in Cuba and Venezuela. In men, upward trends were registered for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and Colombia, but also in Cuba, where the rate in 2005-2009 was more than twice that of the USA (23.6 versus 10/100 000). CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco control, efficient screening programs, early cancer detection and widespread access to treatments continue to be a major priority for cancer prevention in most Latin American countries.