Prevalence and correlates of adolescent pregnancy, motherhood and adverse pregnancy outcomes in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Pregnancy during adolescence is a major risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Further, Motherhood during the adolescent period is identified as a major global health burden. Considering the widely known importance of the negative impact of adolescent pregnancy, motherhood at an early age, and adverse pregnancy outcomes, this paper aims to provide insight into correlates of teen pregnancy, adolescent motherhood and adverse pregnancy outcome. This study utilizes the data from UDAYA survey conducted in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The eligible sample size for the study was 4897 married adolescent girls between the ages of 15 and 19 years. Bivariate analysis with a chi-square test of association and Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to fulfill the aim of the study. Our study shows that a major proportion of married adolescents (61%) got pregnant before the age of 20 years and around 42% of all adolescent married women gave birth to a child before reaching the age of 20 years. Adolescents who married before the age of 18 years were 1.79 times more likely to experience pregnancy (OR: 1.79; CI: 1.39-2.30) and 3.21 times more likely to experience motherhood (OR: 3.21; CI: 2.33-4.43). In the present study, women who experienced physical violence were at higher risk for having an adverse pregnancy outcome (OR: 1.41; CI: 1.08-1.84) than those who did not experience physical violence. To conclude, regional and national level efforts focused on improving early marriage, education and empowering women and girls can be beneficial.

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in India and its states, 1990-2019: data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer that occurs to women worldwide. This study aims to assess trends in incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in India and its states over past three decades for tracking the progress of strategies for the prevention and control of cervical cancer. METHODS: Data on cervical cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 for India and its states were extracted from Global Burden of Disease study and were utilized for the analysis. Spatial and rank map has been used to see the changes in incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in different Indian states. Further, joinpoint regression analysis is applied to determine the magnitude of the time trends in the age standardized incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer. We obtained the average annual percent change (AAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each state. RESULTS: Overall, from 1990 to 2019 Jharkhand (Incidence: -50.22%; Mortality: -56.16%) recorded the highest percentage decrement in cervical cancer incidence and mortality followed by the Himachal Pradesh (Incidence: -48.34%; Mortality: -53.37%). Tamilnadu (1st rank), Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh (32nd rank) maintained the same rank over the period of three decade for age standardized cervical cancer incidence and mortality. The regression model showed a significant declining trend in India between 1990 and 2019 for age standardized incidence rate (AAPC: -0.82; 95%CI: -1.39 to -0.25; p < 0.05) with highest decline in the period 1998-2005 (AAPC: -3.22; 95%CI: -3.83 to -2.59; p < 0.05). Similarly, a significant declining trend was observed in the age standardized mortality rate of India between 1990 and 2019(AAPC: -1.35; 95%CI: -1.96 to -0.75; p < 0.05) with highest decline in the period 1998-2005 (AAPC: -3.52; 95%CI: -4.17 to -2.86; p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Though the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer declined over past three decades but it is still a major public health problem in India. Information, education and communication activities for girls, boys, parents and community for the prevention and control of cervical cancer should be provided throughout the country.

Trends in incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in India over past three decades: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: This is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990-2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age-Period-Cohort model. RESULTS: During the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: - 2.21; 95% CI: - 2.29 to - 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: - 1.63; 95% CI: - 1.71 to - 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: - 4.35; 95% CI: - 5.12 to - 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: - 3.88; 95% CI: - 4.63 to - 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts. CONCLUSION: Mortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990-2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India's National Strategic plan 2017-2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars "Detect-Treat-Prevent-Build" (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).

Depression among currently married ever pregnant adolescents in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar: Evidence from understanding the lives of adolescents and young adults (UDAYA) survey, India.

Background: Depression is a major public health concern among Indian adolescents. Pre- and post-natal depression can often alter fetal development and have negative consequences on the physical and mental health of the mother. This paper aims to draw attention to the prevalence of depression and its correlates among currently married, ever-pregnant adolescents from two Indian States, i.e. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Methods: This study utilizes data from a subsample (n = 3116) of the prospective cohort study Understanding the Lives of Adolescents and Young Adults (UDAYA) among 10 to 19 year-old adolescents. Bivariate analysis was performed to assess the prevalence of depression by sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics. To further access the predictors associated with depression a logistic regression model was applied. Results: Around one-tenth (9%) of pregnant adolescents had depression. Regression analysis indicated that substance use, religion, autonomy, considering attempting suicide, premarital relationship, violence, dowry, adverse pregnancy outcome, menstrual problem, and parental pressure for the child immediately after marriage were significantly associated with depression. Conclusions: This study confirms the pre-existing annotation that teen pregnancy is linked with depression. Findings indicate that Adolescent mothers experiencing violence, and a history of adverse pregnancy outcomes are at increased risk of developing depression. These study findings call for an urgent need to address depression among adolescent mothers.

Long-term trends of HIV/AIDS incidence in India: an application of joinpoint and age-period-cohort analyses: a gendered perspective.

Background: Monitoring the transmission patterns of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in a population is fundamental for identifying the key population and designing prevention interventions. In the present study, we aimed to estimate the gender disparities in HIV incidence and the age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence of HIV in India for identifying the predictors that might have led to changes in the last three decades. Data and methods: This study utilizes data from the Global Burden of Disease Study for the period 1990-2019. The joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify the magnitude of the changes in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of HIV. The average annual percentage changes in the incidence were computed, and the age-period-cohort analysis was performed. Results: A decreasing trend in the overall estimates of age-standardized HIV incidence rates were observed in the period 1990-2019. The joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence significantly declined from its peak in 1997 to 2019 (38.0 and 27.6 among males and females per 100,000 in 1997 to 5.4 and 4.6, respectively, in 2019). The APC was estimated to be 2.12 among males and 1.24 among females for the period 1990-2019. In recent years, although the gender gap in HIV incidence has reduced, females were observed to bear a proportionately higher burden of HIV incidence. Age effect showed a decline in HIV incidence by 91.1 and 70.1% among males and females aged between 15-19 years and 75-79 years. During the entire period from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, the RR of HIV incidence decreased by 36.2 and 33.7% among males and females, respectively. Conclusion: India is experiencing a decline in new HIV infections in recent years. However, the decline is steeper for males than for females. Findings highlight the necessity of providing older women and young women at risk with effective HIV prevention. This study emphasizes the need for large-scale HIV primary prevention efforts for teenage girls and young women.

How to Analyze the Diagnostic Performance of a New Test? Explained with Illustrations.

Diagnostic tests are pivotal in modern medicine due to their applications in statistical decision-making regarding confirming or ruling out the presence of a disease in patients. In this regard, sensitivity and specificity are two most important and widely utilized components that measure the inherent validity of a diagnostic test for dichotomous outcomes against a gold standard test. Other diagnostic indices like positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, accuracy of a diagnostic test, and the effect of prevalence on various diagnostic indices have also been discussed. We have tried to present the performance of a classification model at all classification thresholds by reviewing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the depiction of the tradeoff between sensitivity and (1-specificity) across a series of cutoff points when the diagnostic test is on a continuous scale. The area under the ROC (AUROC) and comparison of AUROCs of different tests have also been discussed. Reliability of a test is defined in terms of the repeatability of the test such that the test gives consistent results when repeated more than once on the same individual or material, under the same conditions. In this article, we have presented the calculation of kappa coefficient, which is the simplest way of finding the agreement between two observers by calculating the overall percentage of agreement. When the prevalence of disease in the population is low, prospective study becomes increasingly difficult to handle through the conventional design. Hence, we chose to describe three more designs along with the conventional one and presented the sensitivity and specificity calculations for those designs. We tried to offer some guidance in choosing the best possible design among these four designs, depending on a number of factors. The ultimate aim of this article is to provide the basic conceptual framework and interpretation of various diagnostic test indices, ROC analysis, comparison of diagnostic accuracy of different tests, and the reliability of a test so that the clinicians can use it effectively. Several R packages, as mentioned in this article, can prove handy during quantitative synthesis of clinical data related to diagnostic tests.

How to Perform Discriminant Analysis in Medical Research? Explained with Illustrations.

Discriminant function analysis is the statistical analysis used to analyze data when the dependent variable or outcome is categorical and independent variable or predictor variable is parametric. It is a parametric technique to determine which weightings of quantitative variables or predictors best discriminates between two or more than two categories of dependent variables and does so better than chance. Discriminant analysis is used to find out the accuracy of a given classification system in predicting the sample into a particular group. Discriminant analysis includes the development of discriminant functions for each sample and deriving a cutoff score that is used for classifying the samples into different groups. Discriminant function analysis is a statistical analysis used to find out the accuracy of a given classification system or predictor variables. This article explains the basic assumptions, uses, and necessary requirements of discriminant analysis with a real-life clinical example. Whenever a new classification system is introduced, discriminant function analysis can be used to find out the accuracy with which the classification is able to differentiate a particular sample into different groups. Thus, it is a very useful tool in medical research where classification is required.

India's performance in controlling Visceral Leishmaniasis as compared to Brazil over past three decades: findings from global burden of disease study.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease which contributes to the mortality and morbidity significantly in India and Brazil. This study was planned to compare the trends of incidence, prevalence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of VL burden in India and Brazil from 1990 to 2019 using Global burden of disease study (GBD) data. The metrics are presented as age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants with their respective uncertainty intervals (95% UI) and relative percentages of change. The decline in the Incidence rate is more in case of India (16.82 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to 0.60 cases in 2019) as compared to Brazil (3.12 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to 2.65 cases in 2019). The annualized rate of change in number of prevalent cases for India is - 0.95 (95% UI - 0.98 to - 0.91) whereas for Brazil it is - 0.06 (95% UI - 0.41 to 0.52). The annualized rate of change in number of DALY for India is - 0.94 (95% UI - 0.96 to - 0.92) whereas for Brazil it is - 0.09 (95% UI - 0.25 to 0.28). The annualized rate of change in number of deaths for India is - 0.93 (95% UI - 0.95 to - 0.92) whereas for Brazil it is increasing i.e. 0.04 (95% UI - 0.12 to 0.51). India achieves significant reduction in the age standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY of VL as compared to Brazil during the period of 1990 to 2019. A multi-centric study is required to assess bottleneck in the existing strategies of VLSCP in Brazil.

Correction to: Trends in the diabetes incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019: a joinpoint and age­period­cohort analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1007/s40200-021-00834-y.].

Trends in the diabetes incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.

Introduction: Globally, a metabolic disorder like Diabetes is considered as one of the largest global health issues, as it accounts for the majority of the disease burden and happens to be one of the leading causes of mortality as well as reduced life expectancy across the world. As in 2019, India is home to the second-largest number (77 million) of Diabetic adults and the number of people affected has been increasing rapidly over the years. Termed as "the diabetes capital of the world," with every fifth diabetic in the world being an Indian, there is an urgent need to address many critically significant challenges posed by Diabetes in India, like, increasing prevalence among young people in urban areas, less awareness among people, high cost of disease management, limited healthcare facilities, suboptimal diabetes control etc. In Indian context, not enough attempts have been made to observe and understand the long-term pattern of diabetes incidence and mortality. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of diabetes incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019. Materials and methods: This is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of diabetes (from 1990 to 2019) from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percentage changes in incidence and mortality were analysed by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality were estimated by age-period-cohort analysis. Results: During the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of diabetes in India experienced an upsurge in numbers, the incidence rate increased from 199.14 to 317.02, and consequently, mortality increased from 22.30 to 27.35 per 100,000 population. The joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence significantly rose by 1.63 % (95 % CI: 1.57 %, 1.69 %) in Indian males and 1.56 % in Indian females (95 % CI: 1.49 %, 1.63 %) from 1990 to 2019. On the other hand, the age-standardized mortality rates rose by 0.77 % (95 % CI: 0.24 %, 1.31 %) in Indian males and 0.57 % (95 % CI: -0.54 %, 1.70 %) in Indian females. For age-specific rates, incidence increased in most age groups, with exception of age groups 5-9, 70-74, 75-79 and 80-84 in male, and age groups 5-9, 75-79 and 80-84 in female. Mortality in male saw a decreasing trend till age group 20-24, whereas in female, the rate decreased till age group 35-39. The age effect on incidence showed no obvious changes with advancing age, but the mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality increased with advancing time period; cohort effect on diabetes incidence and mortality decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts, while incidence showed no material changes from 1975 to 1979 to 2000-2004 birth cohort. Conclusions: Mortality of diabetes decreased in younger age groups but increased in older age groups; however, Incidence increased in most age groups for both male and female. The net age or period effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of diabetes. Timely population-level interventions aiming for health education, lifestyle modification with special emphasis on the promotion of physical activity and healthy diet should be conducted, especially for male and earlier birth cohorts at high risk of diabetes.

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning.

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.