Surgically Correctable Congenital Anomalies: Reducing Morbidity and Mortality in the First 8000 Days of Life.

BACKGROUND: Congenital anomalies are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We aimed to review the common surgically correctable congenital anomalies with recent updates on the global disease burden and identify the factors affecting morbidity and mortality. METHOD: A literature review was done to assess the burden of surgical congenital anomalies with emphasis on those that present within the first 8000 days of life. The various patterns of diseases were analyzed in both low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) and high-income countries (HIC). RESULTS: Surgical problems such as digestive congenital anomalies, congenital heart disease and neural tube defects are now seen more frequently. The burden of disease weighs more heavily on LMIC. Cleft lip and palate has gained attention and appropriate treatment within many countries, and its care has been strengthened by global surgical partnerships. Antenatal scans and timely diagnosis are important factors affecting morbidity and mortality. The frequency of pregnancy termination following prenatal diagnosis of a congenital anomaly is lower in many LMIC than in HIC. CONCLUSION: Congenital heart disease and neural tube defects are the most common congenital surgical diseases; however, easily treatable gastrointestinal anomalies are underdiagnosed due to the invisible nature of the condition. Current healthcare systems in most LMICs are still unprepared to tackle the burden of disease caused by congenital anomalies. Increased investment in surgical services is needed.

Routine Pediatric Surgical Emergencies: Incidence, Morbidity, and Mortality During the 1st 8000 Days of Life-A Narrative Review.

BACKGROUND: Many potentially treatable non-congenital and non-traumatic surgical conditions can occur during the first 8000 days of life and an estimated 85% of children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) will develop one before 15 years old. This review summarizes the common routine surgical emergencies in children from LMICs and their effects on morbidity and mortality. METHODS: A narrative review was undertaken to assess the epidemiology, treatment, and outcomes of common surgical emergencies that present within the first 8000 days (or 21.9 years) of life in LMICs. Available data on pediatric surgical emergency care in LMICs were aggregated. RESULTS: Outside of trauma, acute appendicitis, ileal perforation secondary to typhoid fever, and intestinal obstruction from intussusception and hernias continue to be the most common abdominal emergencies among children in LMICs. Musculoskeletal infections also contribute significantly to the surgical burden in children. These "neglected" conditions disproportionally affect children in LMICs and are due to delays in seeking care leading to late presentation and preventable complications. Pediatric surgical emergencies also necessitate heavy resource utilization in LMICs, where healthcare systems are already under strain. CONCLUSIONS: Delays in care and resource limitations in LMIC healthcare systems are key contributors to the complicated and emergent presentation of pediatric surgical disease. Timely access to surgery can not only prevent long-term impairments but also preserve the impact of public health interventions and decrease costs in the overall healthcare system.

Just Stick a Scope in: Laparoscopic Ventriculoperitoneal Shunt Placement in the Pediatric Reoperative Abdomen.

BACKGROUND: Ventriculoperitoneal shunt (VPS) placement into the reoperative abdomen can be challenging due to intraperitoneal adhesions. Laparoscopic guidance may provide safe abdominal access and identify an area for optimal cerebrospinal fluid drainage. The study aim was to compare laparoscopic-assisted VPS placement to an "open" approach in patients with prior abdominal surgery. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective review was performed of children undergoing VPS placement into a reoperative abdomen from 2009-2019. Clinical data were collected, and patients undergoing laparoscopy (LAP) were compared to those undergoing an open approach (OPEN). RESULTS: A total of 120 children underwent 169 VPS placements at a median age of 8 y (IQR 2-15 y), and a mean number of two prior abdominal operations (IQR 1-2). Laparoscopy was used in 24% of cases. Shunt-related complications within 30 d were lower in the LAP group (0% versus 19%, P = 0.001), as were VPS-related postoperative emergency department visits (0% versus 13%, P = 0.003) and readmissions (0% versus 13%, P = 0.013). Shunt malfunction rates were higher (42% OPEN versus 25% LAP, P = 0.03) and occurred sooner in the OPEN group (median 26 versus 78 wk, P = 0.01). The LAP group demonstrated shorter operative times (63 versus 100 min, P < 0.0001), and the only bowel injury. Time to feeds, length of stay, and mortality were similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Laparoscopic guidance during VPS placement into the reoperative abdomen is associated with a decrease in shunt-related complications, longer shunt patency, and shorter operative times. Prospective study may clarify the potential benefits of laparoscopy in this setting.

Prevalence and Severity of Burn Scars in Rural Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Burn injuries are common in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and their associated disability is tragic. This study is the first to explore burn scars in rural communities in Mozambique. This work also validated an innovate burn assessment tool, the Morphological African Scar Contractures Classification (MASCC), used to determine surgical need. METHODS: Using a stratified, population-weighted survey, the team interviewed randomly selected households from September 2012 to June 2013. Three rural districts (Chókwè, Nhamatanda, and Ribáuè) were selected to represent the southern, central and northern regions of the country. Injuries were recorded, documented with photographs, and approach to care was gathered. A panel of residents and surgeons reviewed the burn scar images using both the Vancouver Scar Scale and the MASCC, a validated visual scale that categorizes patients into four categories corresponding to levels of surgical intervention. RESULTS: Of the 6104 survey participants, 6% (n = 370) reported one or more burn injuries. Burn injuries were more common in females (57%) and most often occurred on the extremities. Individuals less than 25 years old had a significantly higher odds of reporting a burn scar compared to people older than 45 years. Based on the MASCC, 12% (n = 42) would benefit from surgery to treat contractures. CONCLUSION: Untreated burn injuries are prevalent in rural Mozambique. Our study reveals a lack of access to surgical care in rural communities and demonstrates how the MASCC scale can be used to extend the reach of surgical assessment beyond the hospital through community health workers.

Estimates of Treatable Deaths Within the First 20 Years of Life from Scaling Up Surgical Care at First-Level Hospitals in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Surgical care is an important, yet often neglected component of child health in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study examines the potential impact of scaling up surgical care at first-level hospitals in LMICs within the first 20 years of life. METHODS: Epidemiological data from the global burden of disease 2019 Study and a counterfactual method developed for the disease control priorities; 3rd Edition were used to estimate the number of treatable deaths in the under 20 year age group if surgical care could be scaled up at first-level hospitals. Our model included three digestive diseases, four maternal and neonatal conditions, and seven common traumatic injuries. RESULTS: An estimated 314,609 (95% UI, 239,619-402,005) deaths per year in the under 20 year age group could be averted if surgical care were scaled up at first-level hospitals in LMICs. Most of the treatable deaths are in the under-5 year age group (80.9%) and relates to improved obstetrical care and its effect on reducing neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Injuries are the leading cause of treatable deaths after age 5 years. Sixty-one percent of the treatable deaths occur in lower middle-income countries. Overall, scaling up surgical care at first-level hospitals could avert 5·1% of the total deaths in children and adolescents under 20 years of age in LMICs per year. CONCLUSIONS: Improving the capacity of surgical services at first-level hospitals in LMICs has the potential to avert many deaths within the first 20 years of life.

Regulation of the Nfkbiz Gene and Its Protein Product IkBζ in Animal Models of Sepsis and Endotoxic Shock.

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition that arises from a poorly regulated inflammatory response to pathogenic organisms. Current treatments are limited to antibiotics, fluid resuscitation, and other supportive therapies. New targets for monitoring disease progression and therapeutic interventions are therefore critically needed. We previously reported that lipocalin-2 (Lcn2), a bacteriostatic mediator with potent proapoptotic activities, was robustly induced in sepsis. Other studies showed that Lcn2 was a predictor of mortality in septic patients. However, how Lcn2 is regulated during sepsis is poorly understood. We evaluated how IkBζ, an inducer of Lcn2, was regulated in sepsis using both the cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) and endotoxemia (lipopolysaccharide [LPS]) animal models. We show that Nfkbiz, the gene encoding IkBζ, was rapidly stimulated but, unlike Lcn2, whose expression persists during sepsis, mRNA levels of Nfkbiz decline to near basal levels several hours after its induction. In contrast, we observed that IkBζ expression remained highly elevated in septic animals following CLP but not LPS, indicating the occurrence of a CLP-specific mechanism that extends IkBζ half-life. By using an inhibitor of IkBζ, we determined that the expression of Lcn2 was largely controlled by IkBζ. Altogether, these data indicate that the high IkBζ expression in tissues likely contributes to the elevated expression of Lcn2 in sepsis. Since IkBζ is also capable of promoting or repressing other inflammatory genes, it might exert a central role in sepsis.

Assessment of Surgical Care Provided in National Health Services Hospitals in Mozambique: The Importance of Subnational Metrics in Global Surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Surgery plays a critical role in sustainable healthcare systems. Validated metrics exist to guide implementation of surgical services, but low-income countries (LIC) struggle to report recommended metrics and this poses a critical barrier to addressing unmet need. We present a comprehensive national sample of surgical encounters from a LIC by assessing the National Health Services of Mozambique. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A prospective cohort of all surgical encounters from Mozambique's National Health Service was gathered for all provinces between July and December 2015. Primary outcomes were timely access, provider densities for surgery, anesthesiology, and obstetrics (SAO) per 100,000 population, annualized surgical procedure volume per 100,000, and postoperative mortality (POMR). Secondary outcomes include operating room density and efficiency. RESULTS: Fifty-four hospitals had surgical capacity in 11 provinces with 47,189 surgeries. 44.9% of Mozambique's population lives in Districts without access to surgical services. National SAO density was 1.2/100,000, ranging from 0.4/100,000 in Manica Province to 9.8/100,000 in Maputo City. Annualized national surgical case volume was 367 procedures/100,000 population, ranging from 180/100,000 in Zambezia Province to 1,897/100,000 in Maputo City. National POMR was 0.74% and ranged from 0.23% in Maputo Province to 1.78% in Niassa Province. DISCUSSION: Surgical delivery in Mozambique falls short of international targets. Subnational deficiencies and variations between provinces pose targets for quality improvement in advancing national surgical plans. This serves as a template for LICs to follow in gathering surgical metrics for the WHO and the World Bank and offers short- and long-term targets for surgery as a component of health systems strengthening.

Inclusion of Children's Surgery in National Surgical Plans and Child Health Programmes: the need and roadmap from Global Initiative for Children's Surgery.

About 1.7 billion children and adolescents, mostly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) lack access to surgical care. While some of these countries have developed surgical plans and others are in the process of developing theirs, children's surgery has not received the much-needed specific emphasis and focus in these plans. With the significant burden of children's surgical conditions especially in low- and middle-income countries, universal health coverage and the United Nations' (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) will not be achieved without deliberate efforts to scale up access to children's surgical care. Inclusion of children's surgery in National Surgical Obstetric and Anaesthesia Plans (NSOAPs) can be done using the Global Initiative for Children's Surgery (GICS)-modified Children's Surgical Assessment Tool (CSAT) tool for baseline assessment and the Optimal Resources for Children Surgical Care (OReCS) as a foundational tool for implementation.

Early hyperbaric oxygen therapy improves survival in a model of severe sepsis.

Sepsis is a major clinical challenge, with therapy limited to supportive interventions. Therefore, the search for novel remedial approaches is of great importance. We addressed whether hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT) could improve the outcome of sepsis using an acute experimental mouse model. Sepsis was induced in male CD-1 mice by cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) tailored to result in 80-90% mortality within 72 h of the insult. After CLP, mice were randomized into two groups receiving HBOT or not at different times after the initial insult or subjected to multiple HBOT treatments. HBOT conditions were 98% oxygen pressurized to 2.4 atmospheres for 1 h. HBOT within 1 h after CLP resulted in 52% survival in comparison with mice that did not receive the treatment (13% survival). Multiple HBOT at 1 and 6 h or 1, 6, and 21 h displayed an increase in survival of >50%, but they were not significantly different from a single treatment after 1 h of CLP. Treatments at 6 or 21 h after CLP, excluding the 1 h of treatment, did not show any protective effect. Early HBO treatment did not modify bacterial counts after CLP, but it was associated with decreased expression of TNF-α, IL-6, and IL-10 expression in the liver within 3 h after CLP. The decrease of cytokine expression was reproduced in cultured macrophages after exposure to HBOT. Early HBOT could be of benefit in the treatment of sepsis, and the protective mechanism may be related to a reduction in the systemic inflammatory response.

Urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Declining Rates of Chronic and Recurrent Infection and Their Possible Role in the Origins of Non-communicable Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as atherosclerosis and cancers, are a leading cause of death worldwide. An important, yet poorly explained epidemiological feature of NCDs is their low incidence in under developed areas of low-income countries and rising rates in urban areas. METHODS: With the goal of better understanding how urbanization increases the incidence of NCDs, we provide an overview of the urbanization process in sub-Saharan Africa, discuss gene expression differences between rural and urban populations, and review the current NCD determinant model. We conclude by identifying research priorities. RESULTS: Declining rates of chronic and recurrent infection are the hallmark of urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa. Gene profiling studies show urbanization results in complex molecular changes, with almost one-third of the peripheral blood leukocyte transcriptome altered. The current NCD determinant model could be improved by including a possible effect from declining rates of infection and expanding the spectrum of diseases that increase with urbanization. CONCLUSIONS: Urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa provides a unique opportunity to investigate the mechanism by which the environment influences disease epidemiology. Research priorities include: (1) studies to define the relationship between infection and risk factors for NCDs, (2) explaining the observed differences in the inflammatory response between rural and urban populations, and (3) identification of animal models that simulate the biological changes that occurs with urbanization. A better understanding of the biological changes that occur with urbanization could lead to new prevention and treatment strategies for some of the most common surgical diseases in high-income countries.

Why Antibiotic Treatment Is Not Enough for Sepsis Resolution: an Evaluation in an Experimental Animal Model.

Sepsis remains a major health problem at the levels of mortality, morbidity, and economic burden to the health care system, a condition that is aggravated by the development of secondary conditions such as septic shock and multiple-organ failure. Our current understanding of the etiology of human sepsis has advanced, at least in part, due to the use of experimental animal models, particularly the model of cecum ligation and puncture (CLP). Antibiotic treatment has been commonly used in this model to closely mirror the treatment of human septic patients. However, whether their use may obscure the elucidation of the cellular and molecular mechanisms involved in the septic response is questionable. The objective of the present study was to determine the effect of antibiotic treatment in the outcome of a fulminant model of CLP. Various dosing strategies were used for the administration of imipenem, which has broad-spectrum coverage of enteric bacteria. No statistically significant differences in the survival of mice were observed between the different antibiotic dosing strategies and no treatment, suggesting that live bacteria may not be the only factor inducing septic shock. To further investigate this hypothesis, mice were challenged with sterilized or unsterilized cecal contents. We found that exposure of mice to sterilized cecal contents also resulted in a high mortality rate. Therefore, it is possible that bacterial debris, apart from bacterial proliferation, triggers a septic response and contributes to mortality in this model, suggesting that additional factors are involved in the development of septic shock.

Gastrointestinal disorders in Curry-Jones syndrome: Clinical and molecular insights from an affected newborn.

Curry-Jones syndrome (CJS) is a pattern of malformation that includes craniosynostosis, pre-axial polysyndactyly, agenesis of the corpus callosum, cutaneous and gastrointestinal abnormalities. A recurrent, mosaic mutation of SMO (c.1234 C>T; p.Leu412Phe) causes CJS. This report describes the gastrointestinal and surgical findings in a baby with CJS who presented with abdominal obstruction and reviews the spectrum of gastrointestinal malformations in this rare disorder. A 41-week, 4,165 g, female presented with craniosynostosis, pre-axial polysyndactyly, and cutaneous findings consistent with a clinical diagnosis of CJS. The infant developed abdominal distension beginning on the second day of life. Surgical exploration revealed an intestinal malrotation for which she underwent a Ladd procedure. Multiple small nodules were found on the surface of the small and large bowel in addition to an apparent intestinal duplication that seemed to originate posterior to the pancreas. Histopathology of serosal nodules revealed bundles of smooth muscle with associated ganglion cells. Molecular analysis demonstrated the SMO c.1234 C>T mutation in varying amounts in affected skin (up to 35%) and intestinal hamartoma (26%). Gastrointestinal features including structural malformations, motility disorders, and upper GI bleeding are major causes of morbidity in CJS. Smooth muscle hamartomas are a recognized feature of children with CJS typically presenting with abdominal obstruction requiring surgical intervention. A somatic mutation in SMO likely accounts for the structural malformations and predisposition to form bowel hamartomas and myofibromas. The mutation burden in the involved tissues likely accounts for the variable manifestations.

The role of facility-based surgical services in addressing the national burden of disease in New Zealand: an index of surgical incidence based on country-specific disease prevalence.

BACKGROUND: Surgery is a crucial component of health systems, yet its actual contribution has been difficult to define. We aimed to link use of national hospital service with national epidemiological surveillance data to describe the use of surgical procedures in the management of a broad spectrum of conditions. METHODS: We compiled Australian Modification-International Classification of Diseases-10 codes from the New Zealand National Minimum Dataset, 2008-11. Using primary cause of admission, we aggregated admissions to 91 hospitals into 119 disease states and 22 disease subcategories of the WHO Global Health Estimate (GHE). We queried each admission for any surgical procedure in a binary manner to determine the frequency of admitted patients whose care required surgery. Surgical procedures were defined as requiring general or neuroaxial anaesthesia. We then divided the volume of surgical cases by counts of disease prevalence from the GBD 2010 to determine surgical incidence. This study was approved by the University of Otago Human Ethics Committee (Health; Reference Number HD14/42). Raw data was only handled by coauthors with direct affiliation with the New Zealand Ministry of Health. FINDINGS: Between 2008 and 2011, there were 1 108 653 hospital admissions with 275 570 associated surgical procedures per year. Surgical procedures were associated with admissions for all 22 GHE disease subcategories and 116 of 119 GHE disease states (excluding intestinal nematode infections, iodine deficiency, and vitamin A deficiency). The subcategories with the largest surgical case volumes were unintentional injuries (48 073), musculoskeletal diseases (38 030), and digestive diseases (27 640), and the subcategories with the smallest surgical case volumes were nutritional deficiencies (13), neonatal conditions (204), and infectious and parasitic diseases (982). Surgical incidence ranged widely by individual disease states with the highest in other neurological conditions, abortion, appendicitis, obstructed labour, and maternal sepsis. INTERPRETATION: This study confirms previous research that surgical care is required across the entire spectrum of GHE disease subcategories, showing the crucial role of operative intervention in health systems. Surgical incidence might be useful as an index to estimate the need for surgical procedures in other populations. FUNDING: None.

Proposed minimum rates of surgery to support desirable health outcomes: an observational study based on four strategies.

BACKGROUND: The global volume of surgery in 2012 is estimated at 312·9 million operations per year, but rates of surgery vary substantially. Maternal health advocates proposed minimum caesarean delivery rates for benchmarking and to improve perinatal outcomes; however, this has not been done for surgery because the association between rates of surgical care provision as a whole and population health outcomes have not been well described. We use available data to estimate minimum rates of surgery that are associated with important health indicators. METHODS: We defined surgical operations as procedures done in operating theatres that need general or regional anaesthesia or profound sedation to control pain. We used four strategies to identify rates of surgery based on estimated rates of surgery per country for 2012 associated with life expectancy of 74-75 years; estimated rates of surgery associated with a maternal mortality ratio of less than or equal to 100 per 100 000 live births; estimated minimum need for surgery in the 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions based on the prevalence of disorders; and surgical rates from the so-called 4C countries (Chile, China, Costa Rica, and Cuba) identified in The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery as exemplary for their achievement of high health status, despite resource limitations. FINDINGS: Based on 2012 national surgical rates, countries with reported life expectancy of 74-75 years (n=17) had a median surgical rate of 4392 (IQR 2897-4873) operations per 100 000 population annually. The median surgical rate associated with maternal mortality ratio lower than 100 (n=109) is 5028 (IQR 4139-6778) operations per 100 000 population annually. The median surgical rate estimated for all 21 GBD regions was 4669 (IQR 4339-5291) operations per 100 000 population annually. The 4C countries had a mean surgical rate of 4344 (95% CI 2620-6068) operations per 100 000 population annually. 13 of the 21 GBD regions, accounting for 78% of the world's population, do not achieve the lowest end of the surgical rate range. INTERPRETATION: We identified a surprisingly narrow range of surgical rates associated with important health indicators. This target range can be used for benchmarking of surgical services, and as part of a policy aimed at strengthening health-care systems and surgical capacity. FUNDING: None.

Projections to achieve minimum surgical rate threshold: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Recent work has indicated an increase in surgical services, especially in resource poor settings. However, the rate of growth is poorly understood and likely insufficient to meet public health needs. We previously identified a range of 4344 to 5028 operations per 100 000 population annually to be related to desirable health outcomes. From this and other evidence, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends a minimum rate of 5000 operations per 100 000 population. We evaluate rates of growth in surgery and estimate the time it will take to reach this minimum surgical rate threshold. METHODS: We aggregated 2004 and 2012 country-level surgical rate estimates into the 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. We calculated mean rates of surgery proportional to population size and estimate rate of growth between these years. We then extrapolated the time it will take to reach a surgical rate of 5000 operations per 100 000 population based on linear rates of change. FINDINGS: All but two regions (central Europe and southern Latin America) experienced growth in their surgical rates during the past 8 years; the fastest growth occurred in regions with the lowest surgical rates. 14 regions representing 79% of the world's population (5·5 billion people) did not meet the recommended surgical rate threshold in 2012. If surgical capacity grows at current rates, seven regions (central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, eastern sub-Saharan Africa, north Africa and middle east, south Asia, southeast Asia, and western sub-Saharan Africa) will not meet the recommended surgical rate threshold by 2035; Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach this level until 2124. INTERPRETATION: The rates of growth in surgical service delivery are exceedingly variable, but the largest growth rates were noted in the poorest regions. Although this study does not address the quality of care, and rates of surgery are unlikely to change linearly, this exercise is useful to project how many years it could take regions to reach specific surgical rates. At current rates of growth, 4·9 billion people (70% of the world's population) will still be living in countries below the minimum recommended rate of surgery in 2035. A strategy for strengthening surgical capacity is essential if these targets are to be met as part of integrated health system development. FUNDING: None.

Burden of injuries avertable by a basic surgical package in low- and middle-income regions: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study.

BACKGROUND: Injuries accounted for 11 % of the global burden of disease in 2010. This study aimed to quantify the burden of injury in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that could be averted if basic surgical services were made available and accessible to the entire population. METHODS: We examined all causes of injury from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study. We split the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for these conditions between surgically "avertable" and "nonavertable" burdens. For estimating the avertable fatal burden, we applied the lowest fatality rates among the 21 epidemiologic regions to each LMIC region, assuming that the differences in death rates between each region and the lowest rates reflect the gap in surgical care. We adjusted for fatal cases that occur prior to reaching hospitals as they are not surgically avertable. Similarly, we applied the lowest nonfatal burden per case to each LMIC region. RESULTS: Overall, 21 % of the injury burden in LMICs was potentially avertable by basic surgical care (52.3 million DALYs). The avertable proportion was greater for deaths than for nonfatal burden (23 vs. 20 %), suggesting that surgical services for injuries more effectively save lives than ameliorate disability. Sub-Saharan Africa had the largest proportion of potentially avertable burden (25 %). South Asia had the highest total avertable DALYs (17.4 million). Road injury comprised the largest total avertable burden in LMICs (16.1 million DALYs). CONCLUSIONS: Basic surgical care has the potential to play a major role in reducing the injury-related burden in LMICs.

Projections for Achieving the Lancet Commission Recommended Surgical Rate of 5000 Operations per 100,000 Population by Region-Specific Surgical Rate Estimates.

BACKGROUND: We previously identified a range of 4344-5028 annual operations per 100,000 people to be related to desirable health outcomes. From this and other evidence, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends a minimum rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 people. We evaluate rates of growth and estimate the time it will take to reach this minimum surgical rate threshold. METHODS: We aggregated country-level surgical rate estimates from 2004 to 2012 into the twenty-one Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. We calculated mean rates of surgery proportional to population size for each year and assessed the rate of growth over time. We then extrapolated the time it will take each region to reach a surgical rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 population based on linear rates of change. RESULTS: All but two regions experienced growth in their surgical rates during the past 8 years. Fourteen regions did not meet the recommended threshold in 2012. If surgical capacity continues to grow at current rates, seven regions will not meet the threshold by 2035. Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach the recommended threshold until 2124. CONCLUSION: The rates of growth in surgical service delivery are exceedingly variable. At current rates of surgical and population growth, 6.2 billion people (73% of the world's population) will be living in countries below the minimum recommended rate of surgical care in 2035. A strategy for strengthening surgical capacity is essential if these targets are to be met in a timely fashion as part of the integrated health system development.

Surgical Care and Health Systems.

BACKGROUND: While surgical care impacts a wide variety of diseases and conditions with non-operative and operative services, both preventive and curative, there has been little discussion concerning how surgery might be integrated within the health system of a low and middle-income country (LMIC), nor how strengthening surgical services may improve health systems and population health. METHODS: We reviewed reports from several meetings of the working group on health systems strengthening of the Global Initiative for Emergency and Essential Surgical Care, and also performed a review of the literature including the search terms "surgery," "health system," "developing country," "health systems strengthening," "health information system," "financing," "governance," and "integration." RESULTS: The literature search revealed no reports which focused on the integration of surgical services within a health system or as a component of health system strengthening. A conceptual model of how surgical care might be integrated within a health system is proposed, based on the discussions of our working group, combined with sources from the medical literature, and utilizing the World Health Organization's conceptual model of a health system. CONCLUSIONS: Strengthening the delivery of surgical services in LMICs will require inputs at multiple levels within a health system, and this effort will require the coalescence of committed individuals and organizations, supported by civil society.