Multiple stressors determine river ecological status at the European scale: Towards an integrated understanding of river status deterioration.

The biota of European rivers are affected by a wide range of stressors impairing water quality and hydro-morphology. Only about 40% of Europe's rivers reach 'good ecological status', a target set by the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and indicated by the biota. It is yet unknown how the different stressors in concert impact ecological status and how the relationship between stressors and status differs between river types. We linked the intensity of seven stressors to recently measured ecological status data for more than 50,000 sub-catchment units (covering almost 80% of Europe's surface area), which were distributed among 12 broad river types. Stressor data were either derived from remote sensing data (extent of urban and agricultural land use in the riparian zone) or modelled (alteration of mean annual flow and of base flow, total phosphorous load, total nitrogen load and mixture toxic pressure, a composite metric for toxic substances), while data on ecological status were taken from national statutory reporting of the second WFD River Basin Management Plans for the years 2010-2015. We used Boosted Regression Trees to link ecological status to stressor intensities. The stressors explained on average 61% of deviance in ecological status for the 12 individual river types, with all seven stressors contributing considerably to this explanation. On average, 39.4% of the deviance was explained by altered hydro-morphology (morphology: 23.2%; hydrology: 16.2%), 34.4% by nutrient enrichment and 26.2% by toxic substances. More than half of the total deviance was explained by stressor interaction, with nutrient enrichment and toxic substances interacting most frequently and strongly. Our results underline that the biota of all European river types are determined by co-occurring and interacting multiple stressors, lending support to the conclusion that fundamental management strategies at the catchment scale are required to reach the ambitious objective of good ecological status of surface waters.

Improving the performance of macroinvertebrate based multi-metric indices by incorporating functional traits and an index performance-driven approach.

Human-driven multiple pressures impact freshwater ecosystems worldwide, reducing biodiversity, and impacting ecosystem functioning and services provided to human societies. Multi-metric indices (MMIs) are suitable tools for tracking the effects of anthropogenic pressures on freshwater ecosystems because they incorporate various biological metrics responding to multiple pressures at different levels of biological organization. However, the performance and applicability of MMIs depend on their metrics' selection and their calibration against natural environmental gradients. In this study, we aimed to unravel i) how incorporating functional trait-based metrics affects the performance of MMIs, ii) how disentangling the natural environmental gradients from anthropogenic pressures effects affects the performance of MMIs, and iii) how the performance of MMIs developed using a metric performance-driven approach compares with MMIs developed using an index performance-driven approach. We carried out a field survey measuring abiotic and biotic variables at 53 sites in the Karun River basin (Iran) in 2018. For functional trait-based metrics, we used 15 macroinvertebrate traits and calculated community-weighted mean trait values and functional diversity indices. We used random forest modeling to account for the effect of natural environmental gradients on each metric. Based on our results, incorporating functional traits increased the MMI performance significantly and facilitated ecological interpretation of MMIs. Both taxonomic and functional components of macroinvertebrate assemblages co-varied strongly with natural environmental gradients, and accounting for these covariations improved the performance of MMIs. Finally, we found that index performance-driven MMIs performed better in terms of precision, bias, sensitivity, and responsiveness than metric performance-driven MMIs.

River ecological status is shaped by agricultural land use intensity across Europe.

Agriculture impacts the ecological status of freshwaters through multiple pressures such as diffuse pollution, water abstraction, and hydromorphological alteration, strongly impairing riverine biodiversity. The agricultural effects, however, likely differ between agricultural types and practices. In Europe, agricultural types show distinct spatial patterns related to intensity, biophysical conditions, and socioeconomic history, which have been operationalised by various landscape typologies. Our study aimed at analysing whether incorporating agricultural intensity enhances the correlation between agricultural land use and the ecological status. For this, we aggregated the continent's agricultural activities into 20 Areas of Farming-induced Freshwater Pressures (AFFP), specifying individual pressure profiles regarding nutrient enrichment, pesticides, water abstraction, and agricultural land use in the riparian zone to establish an agricultural intensity index and related this intensity index to the river ecological status. Using the agricultural intensity index, nearly doubled the correlative strength between agriculture and the ecological status of rivers as compared to the share of agriculture in the sub-catchment (based on the analysis of more than 50,000 sub-catchment units). Strongest agricultural pressures were found for high intensity cropland in the Mediterranean and Temperate regions, while extensive grassland, fallow farmland and livestock farming in the Northern and Highland regions, as well as low intensity mosaic farming, featured lowest pressures. The results provide advice for pan-European management of freshwater ecosystems and highlight the urgent need for more sustainable agriculture. Consequently, they can also be used as a basis for European Union-wide and global policies to halt biodiversity decline, such as the post-2027 renewal of the Common Agricultural Policy.

The Asymmetric Response Concept explains ecological consequences of multiple stressor exposure and release.

Our capacity to predict trajectories of ecosystem degradation and recovery is limited, especially when impairments are caused by multiple stressors. Recovery may be fast or slow and either complete or partial, sometimes result in novel ecosystem states or even fail completely. Here, we introduce the Asymmetric Response Concept (ARC) that provides a basis for exploring and predicting the pace and magnitude of ecological responses to, and release from, multiple stressors. The ARC holds that three key mechanisms govern population, community and ecosystem trajectories. Stress tolerance is the main mechanism determining responses to increasing stressor intensity, whereas dispersal and biotic interactions predominantly govern responses to the release from stressors. The shifting importance of these mechanisms creates asymmetries between the ecological trajectories that follow increasing and decreasing stressor intensities. This recognition helps to understand multiple stressor impacts and to predict which measures will restore communities that are resistant to restoration.

European river typologies fail to capture diatom, fish, and macrophyte community composition.

Typology systems are frequently used in applied and fundamental ecology and are relevant for environmental monitoring and conservation. They aggregate ecosystems into discrete types based on biotic and abiotic variables, assuming that ecosystems of the same type are more alike than ecosystems of different types with regard to a specific property of interest. We evaluated whether this assumption is met by the Broad River Types (BRT), a recently proposed European river typology system, that classifies river segments based on abiotic variables, when it is used to group biological communities. We compiled data on the community composition of diatoms, fishes, and aquatic macrophytes throughout Europe and evaluated whether the composition is more similar in site groups with the same river type than in site groups of different river types using analysis of similarities, classification strength, typical species analysis, and the area under zeta diversity decline curves. We compared the performance of the BRT with those of four region-based typology systems, namely, Illies Freshwater Ecoregions, the Biogeographic Regions, the Freshwater Ecoregions of the World, and the Environmental Zones, as well as spatial autocorrelation (SA) classifications. All typology systems received low scores from most evaluation methods, relative to predefined thresholds and the SA classifications. The BRT often scored lowest of all typology systems. Within each typology system, community composition overlapped considerably between site groups defined by the types of the systems. The overlap tended to be the lowest for fishes and between Illies Freshwater Ecoregions. In conclusion, we found that existing broad-scale river typology systems fail to delineate site groups with distinct and compositionally homogeneous communities of diatoms, fishes, and macrophytes. A way to improve the fit between typology systems and biological communities might be to combine segment-based and region-based typology systems to simultaneously account for local environmental variation and historical distribution patterns, thus potentially improving the utility of broad-scale typology systems for freshwater biota.

Environmental ranges discriminating between macrophytes groups in European rivers.

Riverine macrophytes form distinct species groups. Their occurrence is determined by environmental gradients, e.g. in terms of physico-chemistry and hydromorphology. However, the ranges of environmental variables discriminating between species groups ("discriminatory ranges") have rarely been quantified and mainly been based on expert judgement, thus limiting options for predicting and assessing ecosystem characteristics. We used a pan-European dataset of riverine macrophyte surveys obtained from 22 countries including data on total phosphorus, nitrate, alkalinity, flow velocity, depth, width and substrate type. Four macrophyte species groups were identified by cluster analysis based on species' co-occurrences. These comprised Group 1) mosses, such as Amblystegium fluviatile and Fontinalis antipyretica, Group 2) shorter and pioneer species such as Callitriche spp., Group 3) emergent and floating species such as Sagittaria sagittifolia and Lemna spp., and Group 4) eutraphent species such as Myriophyllum spicatum and Stuckenia pectinata. With Random Forest models, the ranges of environmental variables discriminating between these groups were estimated as follows: 100-150 µg L-1 total phosphorus, 0.5-20 mg L-1 nitrate, 1-2 meq L-1 alkalinity, 0.05-0.70 m s-1 flow velocity, 0.3-1.0 m depth and 20-80 m width. Mosses were strongly related to coarse substrate, while vascular plants were related to finer sediment. The four macrophyte groups and the discriminatory ranges of environmental variables fit well with those described in literature, but have now for the first time been quantitatively approximated with a large dataset, suggesting generalizable patterns applicable at regional and local scales.

Why wastewater treatment fails to protect stream ecosystems in Europe.

There is significant debate about why less than half of European rivers and streams are in good ecological status, despite decades of intense regulatory efforts. Of the multiple stressors that are recognized as potential contributors to stream degradation, we focus on discharge from 26,500 European wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). We tested the hypothesis that stream ecological status degradation across Europe is related to the local intensity of wastewater discharge, with an expected stream-order (ω) dependence based on the scaling laws that govern receiving stream networks. We found that ecological status in streams (ω≤3) declined consistently with increasing urban wastewater discharge fraction of stream flow (UDF) across river types and basins. In contrast, ecological status in larger rivers (ω≥4) was not related to UDF. From a continental-scale logistic regression model (accuracy 86%) we identified an ecologically critical threshold UDF = 6.5% ± 0.5. This is exceeded by more than one third of WWTPs in Europe, mostly discharging into smaller streams. Our results suggest that new receiving water-specific strategies for wastewater management are needed to achieve good ecological status in smaller streams.

Perceived multiple stressor effects depend on sample size and stressor gradient length.

Multiple stressors are continuously deteriorating surface waters worldwide, posing many challenges for their conservation and restoration. Combined effect types of multiple stressors range from single-stressor dominance to complex interactions. Identifying prevalent combined effect types is critical for environmental management, as it helps to prioritise key stressors for mitigation. However, it remains unclear whether observed single and combined stressor effects reflect true ecological processes unbiased by sample size and length of stressor gradients. Therefore, we examined the role of sample size and stressor gradient lengths in 158 paired-stressor response cases with over 120,000 samples from rivers, lakes, transitional and marine ecosystems around the world. For each case, we split the overall stressor gradient into two partial gradients (lower and upper) and investigated associated changes in single and combined stressor effects. Sample size influenced the identified combined effect types, and stressor interactions were less likely for cases with fewer samples. After splitting gradients, 40 % of cases showed a change in combined effect type, 30 % no change, and 31 % showed a loss in stressor effects. These findings suggest that identified combined effect types may often be statistical artefacts rather than representing ecological processes. In 58 % of cases, we observed changes in stressor effect directions after the gradient split, suggesting unimodal stressor effects. In general, such non-linear responses were more pronounced for organisms at higher trophic levels. We conclude that observed multiple stressor effects are not solely determined by ecological processes, but also strongly depend on sampling design. Observed effects are likely to change when sample size and/or gradient length are modified. Our study highlights the need for improved monitoring programmes with sufficient sample size and stressor gradient coverage. Our findings emphasize the importance of adaptive management, as stress reduction measures or further ecosystem degradation may change multiple stressor-effect relationships, which will then require associated changes in management strategies.

Evaluating the biological validity of European river typology systems with least disturbed benthic macroinvertebrate communities.

Humans have severely altered freshwater ecosystems globally, causing a loss of biodiversity. Regulatory frameworks, like the Water Framework Directive, have been developed to support actions that halt and reverse this loss. These frameworks use typology systems that summarize freshwater ecosystems into environmentally delineated types. Within types, ecosystems that are minimally impacted by human activities, i.e., in reference conditions, are expected to be similar concerning physical, chemical, and biological characteristics. This assumption is critical when water quality assessments rely on comparisons to type-specific reference conditions. Lyche Solheim et al. (2019) developed a pan-European river typology system, the Broad River Types, that unifies the national Water Framework Directive typology systems and is gaining traction within the research community. However, it is unknown how similar biological communities are within these individual Broad River Types. We used analysis of similarities and classification strength analysis to examine if the Broad River Types delineate distinct macroinvertebrate communities across Europe and whether they outperform two ecoregional approaches: the European Biogeographical Regions and Illies' Freshwater Ecoregions. We determined indicator and typical taxa for the types of all three typology systems and evaluated their distinctiveness. All three typology systems captured more variation in macroinvertebrate communities than random combinations of sites. The results were similar among typology systems, but the Broad River Types always performed worse than either the Biogeographic Regions or Illies' Freshwater Ecoregions. Despite reaching statistical significance, the statistics of analysis of similarity and classification strength were low in all tests indicating substantial overlap among the macroinvertebrate communities of different types. We conclude that the Broad River Types do not represent an improvement upon existing freshwater typologies when used to delineate macroinvertebrate communities and we propose future avenues for advancement: regionally constrained types, better recognition of intermittent rivers, and consideration of biotic communities.

The interplay of nutrients, dissolved inorganic carbon and algae in determining macrophyte occurrences in rivers.

Nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations are widely considered to drive macrophyte assemblages in rivers. However, Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) - available for plants as CO2 and HCO3- - is also of major relevance. Based on literature, we present a conceptual model on the interaction between algae, macrophytes, DIC, pH, light, N, P and the surface water and sedimental compartment. Analysing two separate datasets (i) on river physico-chemistry and chlorophyll-a, and (ii) on river physico-chemistry and macrophytes we quantify three connections within this concept: (1) the correlation of chlorophyll-a versus pH, (2) the correlation of TP versus chlorophyll-a and (3) the occurrence of HCO3-users and CO2-only-users among macrophytes along the DIC gradient. Chlorophyll-a correlated positively with pH (R-squared = 77%, p < .001) due to increased carbon dioxide uptake of phytoplankton. Surface water TP did not linearly correlate with chlorophyll-a concentrations. Obligate and optionally submerged macrophyte species that utilise HCO3- were separated from CO2-only-users by HCO3- concentrations, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 68% and 70% (both p < .001) between groups. Obligate and optionally submerged macrophyte assemblages only composed of HCO3-users and those exclusively composed of CO2-only-users showed an even stronger separation based on the HCO3- concentration, with both an AUC of 82% and 78% (both p < .001). Our results underline that DIC can greatly affect riverine macrophytes. However, absolute concentrations of HCO3- are less relevant, while the connection to pH is more important, reflecting CO2 concentrations. River monitoring and management should consider the interaction between nutrients DIC, surface water and sedimental compartment as important factors affecting macrophyte occurrence, rather than solely focussing on surface water nutrients.

Anthropogenic Stressors in Upland Rivers: Aquatic Macrophyte Responses. A Case Study from Bulgaria.

Upland rivers across Europe still exhibit undisturbed conditions and represent a treasure that we cannot afford to lose. We hypothesize that the combination of pristine and modified conditions could demonstrate biological responses along the stressor gradients. Thus, the response of aquatic macrophyte communities to anthropogenic stressors along upland rivers in Bulgaria was studied. Six stressors were selected out of 36 parameters grouped into hydromorphological, chemical variables and combined drivers (catchment land use). The stressors strongly affected species richness on the basis of biological type (bryophytes vs. vascular plants) and ecomorphological type (hydrophytes vs. helophytes). Hydrological alteration expressed by the change of the river's base flow and altered riparian habitats has led to a suppression of bryophytes and a dominance of riverbank plant communities. Seventy-five percent of mountain sites were lacking bryophytes, and the vegetation at semi-mountainous sites was dominated by vascular plants. It can be concluded that hydropeaking, organic and inorganic pollution, and discontinuous urban structures caused important modifications in the aquatic macrophyte assemblages. Macrophyte abundance and the biological and ecomorphological type of aquatic macrophytes reflect multi-stressor effects in upland rivers.

Making waves. Bridging theory and practice towards multiple stressor management in freshwater ecosystems.

Despite advances in conceptual understanding, single-stressor abatement approaches remain common in the management of fresh waters, even though they can produce unexpected ecological responses when multiple stressors interact. Here we identify limitations restricting the development of multiple-stressor management strategies and address these, bridging theory and practice, within a novel empirical framework. Those critical limitations include that (i) monitoring schemes fall short of accounting for theory on relationships between multiple-stressor interactions and ecological responses, (ii) current empirical modelling approaches neglect the prevalence and intensity of multiple-stressor interactions, and (iii) mechanisms of stressor interactions are often poorly understood. We offer practical recommendations for the use of empirical models and experiments to predict the effects of freshwater degradation in response to changes in multiple stressors, demonstrating this approach in a case study. Drawing on our framework, we offer practical recommendations to support the development of effective management strategies in three general multiple-stressor scenarios.

European aquatic ecological assessment methods: A critical review of their sensitivity to key pressures.

The European Union has embarked on a policy which aims to achieve good ecological status in all surface waters (i.e. rivers, lakes, transitional and coastal waters). In theory, ecological status assessment methods should address the effects of all relevant human pressures. In this study, we analyze the degree to which methods European countries use to assess ecological status tackle various pressures affecting European waters. Nutrient pollution is by far the best-covered pressure for all four water categories. Out of total of 423 assessment methods, 370 assess eutrophication and pressure-specific relationships have been demonstrated for 212 of these. "General degradation" is addressed by 238 methods, mostly validated by relationships to combined pressure indices. Other major pressures have received significantly less effort: hydromorphological degradation is assessed by 160 methods and pressure-specific relationships have been demonstrated for just 40 of these. Hydromorphological pressures are addressed (at least by one BQE) only by 25% countries for coastal waters and 70-80% for lakes and transitional waters. Specific diagnostic tools (i.e. single-pressure relationships) for hydromorphology have only been developed by a few countries: only 20% countries have such methods for lakes, coastal and transitional waters and less than half for rivers. Toxic contamination is addressed by 90 methods; however, pressure-specific relationships have been demonstrated for just eight of these. Only two countries have demonstrated pressure-specific acidification methods for rivers, and three for lakes. In summary, methods currently in use mostly address eutrophication and/or general degradation, but there is not much evidence that they reliably pick up the effects of other significant pressures such as hydromorphology or toxic contamination. Therefore, we recommend that countries re-examine: (1) those pressures which affect different water categories in the country; (2) relevant assessment methods to tackle those pressures; (3) whether pressure-response relationships have been developed for each of these.

Making the ecosystem services approach operational: A case study application to the Aarhus River, Denmark.

The ecosystem services (ESS) approach seeks to identify and characterize links between ecosystems and human welfare. The DESSIN ESS evaluation framework is a novel methodology that has been developed to operationalize ecosystem service assessment, with a focus on urban freshwater settings. This paper describes an application of the framework to a retrospective case study in Aarhus, Denmark, which was used to test the framework and make suggestions for improvement. River restoration and wastewater management measures enhanced ecosystem state and the provision and use of purification and recreation ESS for selected beneficiaries, including increased economic values. Feedback from this case study suggests a missing link between science-based ESS approaches, which often have a normative basis in ecosystem status, and the real-world provision and use of ESS in urban settings. In the urban context, many ESS result from a combination of human and ecosystem inputs, and the human inputs can often be significant. Quantifying ESS provision and use therefore requires understanding how ecosystem and human inputs work together to make contributions to human welfare.

Chemical pollution imposes limitations to the ecological status of European surface waters.

Aquatic ecosystems are affected by man-made pressures, often causing combined impacts. The analysis of the impacts of chemical pollution is however commonly separate from that of other pressures and their impacts. This evolved from differences in the data available for applied ecology vis-à-vis applied ecotoxicology, which are field gradients and laboratory toxicity tests, respectively. With this study, we demonstrate that the current approach of chemical impact assessment, consisting of comparing measured concentrations to protective environmental quality standards for individual chemicals, is not optimal. In reply, and preparing for a method that would enable the comprehensive assessment and management of water quality pressures, we evaluate various quantitative chemical pollution pressure metrics for mixtures of chemicals in a case study with 24 priority substances of Europe-wide concern. We demonstrate why current methods are sub-optimal for water quality management prioritization and that chemical pollution currently imposes limitations to the ecological status of European surface waters. We discuss why management efforts may currently fail to restore a good ecological status, given that to date only 0.2% of the compounds in trade are considered in European water quality assessment and management.

Impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater biota across spatial scales and ecosystems.

Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses (that is, additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects). We know little about the spatial scales relevant for the outcomes of such interactions and little about effect sizes. These knowledge gaps need to be filled to underpin future land management decisions or climate mitigation interventions for protecting and restoring freshwater ecosystems. This study combines data across scales from 33 mesocosm experiments with those from 14 river basins and 22 cross-basin studies in Europe, producing 174 combinations of paired-stressor effects on a biological response variable. Generalized linear models showed that only one of the two stressors had a significant effect in 39% of the analysed cases, 28% of the paired-stressor combinations resulted in additive effects and 33% resulted in interactive (antagonistic, synergistic, opposing or reversal) effects. For lakes, the frequencies of additive and interactive effects were similar for all spatial scales addressed, while for rivers these frequencies increased with scale. Nutrient enrichment was the overriding stressor for lakes, with effects generally exceeding those of secondary stressors. For rivers, the effects of nutrient enrichment were dependent on the specific stressor combination and biological response variable. These results vindicate the traditional focus of lake restoration and management on nutrient stress, while highlighting that river management requires more bespoke management solutions.

Diagnosing the causes of river deterioration using stressor-specific metrics.

More often than not, rivers are impacted by multiple stressors simultaneously affecting water quality, ecological flow, habitat diversity and ultimately lotic biodiversity. Identifying individual stressors as specific causes of deterioration can help inform water managers about stressor hierarchy and appropriate management options. Here, we investigate whether biological metrics from bioassessment schemes hold diagnostic capabilities to distinguish between the impact of individual stressors. We hypothesise that stressor-specific responses occur, when individual stressors show independent 'modes of action' (i.e. the specific stress-induced changes of environmental factors that modify the ecological niches of the species constituting the biological community). The stress receptors comprised three aquatic organism groups (macrophytes, benthic invertebrates, fish) represented by 437 biological metrics relevant in aquatic bioassessment. The stressor groups under investigation were physico-chemical, hydromorphological and hydrological stress. The data originated from official monitoring programmes with 769 sampling sites located at three broad river types in Western and Central Germany. Linear and non-linear variance partitioning was performed separately for each river type, with the non-linear analysis using a combination of boosted regression tree modeling and variance partitioning. We considered metrics to be potentially stressor-specific, if the corresponding models were explained predominantly by one stressor group. The linear analyses revealed 16 metrics that met our criteria. Subsequent non-linear modeling resulted in two genuinely stressor-specific metrics, both based on invertebrate data: The Index of Biocoenotic Region (specifically indicating hydromorphological stress) and the Relative abundance of alien invertebrate species (specifically indicating physico-chemical stress). We conclude that stressor-specific metrics can be empirically derived based on available monitoring data, and thus help support decision making in environmental management. However, their applicability is restricted to specific regions (e.g. river basin districts) reflecting the case-specific circumstance to which these metrics are conditioned.

Deriving nutrient criteria to support 'good' ecological status in European lakes: An empirically based approach to linking ecology and management.

European water policy has identified eutrophication as a priority issue for water management. Substantial progress has been made in combating eutrophication but open issues remain, including setting reliable and meaningful nutrient criteria supporting 'good' ecological status of the Water Framework Directive. The paper introduces a novel methodological approach - a set of four different methods - that can be applied to different ecosystems and stressors to derive empirically-based management targets. The methods include Ranged Major Axis (RMA) regression, multivariate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, logistic regression, and minimising the mismatch of classifications. We apply these approaches to establish nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) criteria for the major productive shallow lake types of Europe: high alkalinity shallow (LCB1; mean depth 3-15 m) and very shallow (LCB2; mean depth < 3 m) lakes. Univariate relationships between nutrients and macrophyte assessments explained 29-46% of the variation. Multivariate models with both total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) as predictors had higher R2 values (0.50 for LCB1 and 0.49 for LCB2) relative to the use of TN or TP singly. We estimated nutrient concentrations at the boundary where lake vegetation changes from 'good' to 'moderate' ecological status. LCB1 lakes achieved 'good' macrophyte status at concentrations below 48-53 µg/l TP and 1.1-1.2 mg/l TN, compared to LCB2 lakes below 58-78 µg/l TP and 1.0-1.4 mg/l TN. Where strong regression relationships exist, regression approaches offer a reliable basis for deriving nutrient criteria and their uncertainty, while categorical approaches offer advantages for risk assessment and communication, or where analysis is constrained by discontinuous measures of status or short stressor gradients. We link ecological status of macrophyte communities to nutrient criteria in a user-friendly and transparent way. Such analyses underpin the practical actions and policy needed to achieve 'good' ecological status in the lakes of Europe.

The future depends on what we do today - Projecting Europe's surface water quality into three different future scenarios.

There are infinite possible future scenarios reflecting the impacts of anthropogenic multiple stress on our planet. These impacts include changes in climate and land cover, to which aquatic ecosystems are especially vulnerable. To assess plausible developments of the future state of European surface waters, we considered two climate scenarios and three storylines describing land use, management and anthropogenic development ('Consensus', 'Techno' and 'Fragmented', which in terms of environmental protection represent best-, intermediate- and worst-case, respectively). Three lake and four river basins were selected, representing a spectrum of European conditions through a range of different human impacts and climatic, geographical and biological characteristics. Using process-based and empirical models, freshwater total nitrogen, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations were projected for 2030 and 2060. Under current conditions, the water bodies mostly fail good ecological status. In future predictions for the Techno and Fragmented World, concentrations further increased, while concentrations generally declined for the Consensus World. Furthermore, impacts were more severe for rivers than for lakes. Main pressures identified were nutrient inputs from agriculture, land use change, inadequately managed water abstractions and climate change effects. While the basins in the Continental and Atlantic regions were primarily affected by land use changes, in the Mediterranean/Anatolian the main driver was climate change. The Boreal basins showed combined impacts of land use and climate change and clearly reflected the climate-induced future trend of agricultural activities shifting northward. The storylines showed positive effects on ecological status by classical mitigation measures in the Consensus World (e.g. riparian shading), technical improvements in the Techno World (e.g. increasing wastewater treatment efficiency) and agricultural extensification in the Fragmented World. Results emphasize the need for implementing targeted measures to reduce anthropogenic impacts and the importance of having differing levels of ambition for improving the future status of water bodies depending on the societal future to be expected.

A new broad typology for rivers and lakes in Europe: Development and application for large-scale environmental assessments.

European countries have defined >1000 national river types and >400 national lake types to implement the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). In addition, common river and lake types have been defined within regions of Europe for intercalibrating the national classification systems for ecological status of water bodies. However, only a low proportion of national types correspond to these common intercalibration types. This causes uncertainty concerning whether the classification of ecological status is consistent across countries. Therefore, through an extensive dialogue with and data provision from all EU countries, we have developed a generic typology for European rivers and lakes. This new broad typology reflects the natural variability in the most commonly used environmental type descriptors: altitude, size and geology, as well as mean depth for lakes. These broad types capture 60-70% of all national WFD types including almost 80% of all European river and lake water bodies in almost all EU countries and can also be linked to all the common intercalibration types. The typology provides a new framework for large-scale assessments across country borders, as demonstrated with an assessment of ecological status and pressures based on European data from the 2nd set of river basin management plans. The typology can also be used for a variety of other large-scale assessments, such as reviewing and linking the water body types to habitat types under the Habitats Directive and the European Nature Information System (EUNIS), as well as comparing type-specific limit values for nutrients and other supporting quality elements across countries. Thus, the broad typology can build the basis for all scientific outputs of managerial relevance related to water body types.