Highly dynamic changes of regional HBV epidemiology over two decades.

BACKGROUND & AIM: HBV epidemiology is highly heterogeneous and rapidly evolving worldwide: we studied its last two-decades dynamics in a large single center cohort. METHODS: In all consecutive HBsAg-positive subjects firstly admitted (2000-2019) at the Pisa-University-Hospital Hepatology-Referral-Center, demographic, virologic and clinical variables were analyzed by admission decade (2000-2009 vs 2010-2019) and origin (Italian vs non-Italian natives). RESULTS: Of 2003, 1878 (93.7%) subjects were eligible: 1798(95.7%) with HBV-chronic [126(7%) HDV, 72(4%) HCV, 11(0.6%) HIV co-infected] and 80(4.3%) HBV-primary infections (93.7% Italians). Among 1589(88.4%) mono-infected, 496(31.2%) were immigrants, younger than Italians [34.0(5.1-77.1)-52.5(10.0-87.2) years], with female prevalence [204/496(41.1%)-340/1093(31.1%); p<0.001] increasing overtime (14.6-45.0%; p<0.001). Italians aged across decades [50.3(11.1-87.2)-56.2(10.0-86.7) years; p<0.001], HBeAg-positivity remained stable (12.3-14.5%) and acute hepatitis increased (4.0-8.0%; p = 0.003). CHB declined [439/721(60.9%)-320/868(36.9%); p<0.001] whereas HBeAg-negative infection increased [277/626(44.2%)-538/755(71.3%); p<0.001]. Cirrhosis declined [195/721(27.0%)-125/868(14.4%); p<0.001], except in anti-HDV-patients [93/126(73.8%); 42(45.1%) non-Italians], younger than HBV-mono-infected (47.4-57.6 years; p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Effective preventive health care policies and immigration flows account for increasing prevalence of HBeAg-negative infection across the last two decades. Antiviral therapy mitigated disease progression in aging Italian CHB but not in CHD patients, mainly young immigrants, emphasizing the unmet need of effective CHD therapies; HBeAg-positive CHB and acute hepatitis B persist in non-vaccinated Italian adults, prompting vaccination in the elderly with risky behaviors.

Modeling Hepatocellular Carcinoma Cells Dynamics by Serological and Imaging Biomarkers to Explain the Different Responses to Sorafenib and Regorafenib.

In advanced HCC, tyrosine-kinase inhibitors obtain partial responses (PR) in some patients and complete responses (CR) in a few. Better understanding of the mechanism of response could be achieved by the radiomic approach combining digital imaging and serological biomarkers (α-fetoprotein, AFP and protein induced by vitamin K absence-II, PIVKA-II) kinetics. A physic-mathematical model was developed to investigate cancer cells and vasculature dynamics in three prototype patients receiving sorafenib and/or regorafenib and applied in seven others for validation. Overall four patients showed CR, two PR, two stable-disease (SD) and two progressive-disease (PD). The rate constant of cancer cells production was higher in PD than in PR-SD and CR (median: 0.398 vs. 0.325 vs. 0.316 C × day-1). Therapy induced reduction of neo-angiogenesis was greater in CR than in PR-SD and PD (median: 83.2% vs. 29.4% and 2.0%), as the reduction of cell-proliferation (55.2% vs. 7.6% and 0.7%). An additional dose-dependent acceleration of tumor vasculature decay was also observed in CR. AFP and cancer cells followed the same kinetics, whereas PIVKA-II time/dose dependent fluctuations were influenced also by tissue ischemia. In conclusion, pending confirmation in a larger HCC cohort, modeling serological and imaging biomarkers could be a new tool for systemic therapy personalization.