Changes in emergency department utilisation in Germany before and during different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, using data from a national surveillance system up to June 2021.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic and associated public health and social measures, decreasing patient numbers have been described in various healthcare settings in Germany, including emergency care. This could be explained by changes in disease burden, e.g. due to contact restrictions, but could also be a result of changes in utilisation behaviour of the population. To better understand those dynamics, we analysed routine data from emergency departments to quantify changes in consultation numbers, age distribution, disease acuity and day and hour of the day during different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We used interrupted time series analyses to estimate relative changes for consultation numbers of 20 emergency departments spread throughout Germany. For the pandemic period (16-03-2020 - 13-06-2021) four different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic were defined as interruption points, the pre-pandemic period (06-03-2017 - 09-03-2020) was used as the reference. RESULTS: The most pronounced decreases were visible in the first and second wave of the pandemic, with changes of - 30.0% (95%CI: - 32.2%; - 27.7%) and - 25.7% (95%CI: - 27.4%; - 23.9%) for overall consultations, respectively. The decrease was even stronger for the age group of 0-19 years, with - 39.4% in the first and - 35.0% in the second wave. Regarding acuity levels, consultations assessed as urgent, standard, and non-urgent showed the largest decrease, while the most severe cases showed the smallest decrease. CONCLUSIONS: The number of emergency department consultations decreased rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, without extensive variation in the distribution of patient characteristics. Smallest changes were observed for the most severe consultations and older age groups, which is especially reassuring regarding concerns of possible long-term complications due to patients avoiding urgent emergency care during the pandemic.

Risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome after vaccination against human papillomavirus: a systematic review and meta-analysis, 1 January 2000 to 4 April 2020.

BackgroundGuillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a rare autoimmune disease that can follow viral infections and has in a few cases been linked to vaccinations. Pre-licensure clinical trials did not observe an association between human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and GBS, a post-marketing study from 2017 reported an increased relative risk.AimWe assessed the risk of GBS after HPV vaccination through a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.MethodsWe searched Embase, MEDLINE and Cochrane for studies reporting on the risk of GBS after HPV vaccination in individuals aged ≥ 9 years, published between 1 January 2000 and 4 April 2020, excluding studies without a comparator group. Seven studies reporting relative effect sizes were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. We assessed quality of evidence using the GRADE approach. Study protocol was registered (PROSPERO No. #CRD42019123533).ResultsOf 602 identified records, we included 25 studies. Based on over 10 million reports, cases of GBS were rare. In 22 studies no increased risk was observed, while in three studies a signal of increased risk of GBS after HPV vaccination was identified. Meta-analysis yielded a pooled random-effects ratio of 1.21 (95% CI: 0.60-2.43); I2 = 72% (95% CI: 36-88). This translates to a number needed to harm of one million to be vaccinated to generate one GBS case. Quality of evidence was very low.ConclusionsThe absolute and relative risk of GBS after HPV vaccination is very low and lacks statistical significance. This is reassuring for the already implemented vaccination programmes and should be used in respective communication activities.

Using routine emergency department data for syndromic surveillance of acute respiratory illness, Germany, week 10 2017 until week 10 2021.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic expanded the need for timely information on acute respiratory illness at population level.AimWe explored the potential of routine emergency department data for syndromic surveillance of acute respiratory illness in Germany.MethodsWe used routine attendance data from emergency departments, which continuously transferred data between week 10 2017 and 10 2021, with ICD-10 codes available for > 75% of attendances. Case definitions for acute respiratory infection (ARI), severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), influenza-like illness (ILI), respiratory syncytial virus infection (RSV) and COVID-19 were based on a combination of ICD-10 codes, and/or chief complaints, sometimes combined with information on hospitalisation and age.ResultsWe included 1,372,958 attendances from eight emergency departments. The number of attendances dropped in March 2020 during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave, increased during summer, and declined again during the resurge of COVID-19 cases in autumn and winter of 2020/21. A pattern of seasonality of respiratory infections could be observed. By using different case definitions (i.e. for ARI, SARI, ILI, RSV) both the annual influenza seasons in the years 2017-2020 and the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020/21 were apparent. The absence of the 2020/21 influenza season was visible, parallel to the resurge of COVID-19 cases. SARI among ARI cases peaked in April-May 2020 (17%) and November 2020-January 2021 (14%).ConclusionSyndromic surveillance using routine emergency department data can potentially be used to monitor the trends, timing, duration, magnitude and severity of illness caused by respiratory viruses, including both influenza viruses and SARS-CoV-2.

National medical specialty guidelines of HIV indicator conditions in Europe lack adequate HIV testing recommendations: a systematic guideline review.

BackgroundAdequate identification and testing of people at risk for HIV is fundamental for the HIV care continuum. A key strategy to improve timely testing is HIV indicator condition (IC) guided testing.AimTo evaluate the uptake of HIV testing recommendations in HIV IC-specific guidelines in European countries.MethodsBetween 2019 and 2021, European HIV experts reviewed guideline databases to identify all national guidelines of 62 HIV ICs. The proportion of HIV IC guidelines recommending HIV testing was reported, stratified by subgroup (HIV IC, country, eastern/western Europe, achievement of 90-90-90 goals and medical specialty).ResultsOf 30 invited European countries, 15 participated. A total of 791 HIV IC guidelines were identified: median 47 (IQR: 38-68) per country. Association with HIV was reported in 69% (545/791) of the guidelines, and 46% (366/791) recommended HIV testing, while 42% (101/242) of the AIDS-defining conditions recommended HIV testing. HIV testing recommendations were observed more frequently in guidelines in eastern (53%) than western (42%) European countries and in countries yet to achieve the 90-90-90 goals (52%) compared to those that had (38%). The medical specialties internal medicine, neurology/neurosurgery, ophthalmology, pulmonology and gynaecology/obstetrics had an HIV testing recommendation uptake below the 46% average. None of the 62 HIV ICs, countries or medical specialties had 100% accurate testing recommendation coverage in all their available HIV IC guidelines.ConclusionFewer than half the HIV IC guidelines recommended HIV testing. This signals an insufficient adoption of this recommendation in non-HIV specialty guidelines across Europe.

[Using emergency department routine data for the surveillance of suicide attempts and psychiatric emergencies]. / Nutzung von Routinedaten aus Notaufnahmen zur Surveillance von Suizidversuchen und psychiatrischen Notfällen.

BACKGROUND: The occurrence of suicide attempts is a key indicator of the population's mental health and therefore belongs in the domain of Mental Health Surveillance at the Robert Koch Institute. No data source is currently being used systematically for the continuous observation of psychiatric emergencies (including suicide attempts) in Germany. Therefore, the use of routine data from emergency departments will be explored in this work. METHODS: We included routine data from 12 emergency departments between 1 January 2018 and 28 March 2021. We developed syndrome definitions for suicide attempts, psychiatric emergencies based on combinations of chief complaints, and diagnoses from patients presenting with psychopathological symptoms. A descriptive analysis over time was presented and stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: In total 1,516,883 emergency department attendances were included, among which we identified 5,133 cases (0.3%) as suicide attempts, 31,085 (2.1%) as psychiatric emergencies, and 34,230 (2.3%) as cases with psychiatric symptoms. Among psychiatric emergencies, 16.5% presented because of a suicide attempt. Of cases presenting with a suicide attempt, 53.4% were male and 20.2% were aged between 25 and 34 years. Cases identified by all 3 syndrome definitions and their temporal variations could be displayed over the entire observation period. CONCLUSION: Syndromic surveillance using emergency department data indicates a potential for continuous surveillance of suicide attempts and psychiatric emergencies and provides a basis for further validation and analysis. The display of changes in real time extends the current research opportunities for psychiatric emergencies in Germany. Systematic surveillance of suicide attempts can contribute to evidence-based suicide prevention.

Factors preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission during unintentional exposure in a GP practice: a cohort study of patient contacts; Germany, 2020.

Two general practitioners (GPs) with SARS-CoV-2 infection provided in-person patient care to patients of their joint medical practice before and after symptom onset, up until SARS-CoV-2 laboratory confirmation. Through active contact tracing, the local public health authorities recruited the cohort of patients that had contact with either GP in their putative infectious period. In this cohort of patient contacts, we assess the frequency and determinants of SARS-CoV-2-transmission from GPs to patients. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR) to explore the type of contact as an explanatory variable for COVID-19 cases. Among the cohort of 83 patient contacts, we identified 22 (27%) COVID-19 cases including 17 (21%) possible, three (4%) probable and two (2%) confirmed cases. All 22 cases had contact with a GP when the GP did not wear a mask, and/or when contact was ≥10 min. Importantly, patients who had contact <10 min with a GP wearing a facemask were at reduced risk (IRR 0.21; 95% CI 0.01-0.99) of COVID-19. This outbreak investigation adds to the body of evidence in supporting current guidelines on measures at preventing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in an outpatient setting.

Acute hepatitis C infection among adults with HIV in the Netherlands between 2003 and 2016: a capture-recapture analysis for the 2013 to 2016 period.

BackgroundWith regards to the global strategy towards eliminating viral hepatitis, reliable surveillance systems are essential to assess the national response for eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV).AimWe aimed to assess the completeness of the two national registries with data on acute HCV infection in people with HIV, and estimated the number of acute HCV infections among adults (aged ≥ 18 years) with HIV in the Netherlands.MethodsIn this observational study, cases of HCV infection and reinfection among adults with a positive or unknown HIV-serostatus were identified from 2003 to 2016 in two national registries: the ATHENA cohort and the National Registry for Notifiable Diseases. For 2013-2016, cases were linked, and two-way capture-recapture analysis was carried out.ResultsDuring 2013-2016, there were an estimated 282 (95% confidence interval (CI): 264-301) acute HCV infections among adults with HIV. The addition of cases with an unknown HIV-serostatus increased the matches (from n = 107 to n = 129), and subsequently increased the estimated total: 330 (95%CI: 309-351). Under-reporting was estimated at 14-20%.ConclusionUnder-reporting of acute HCV infection among people with HIV could partially be explained by an unknown HIV-serostatus, or by differences in HCV stage (acute or chronic) at first diagnosis. Surveillance data should ideally include both acute and chronic HCV infections, and enable to distinguish these as well as initial- and re-infections. National surveillance of acute HCV can be improved by increased notification of infections.

Compliance with laboratory monitoring guidelines in outpatient HIV care: a qualitative study in the Netherlands.

Evidence-based guidelines in HIV care aim to improve patients' health outcomes, quality of care, and cost-effectiveness. Laboratory monitoring plays an important role in assessing clinical status of patients and forms an integral part of HIV treatment guidelines. The Dutch HIV monitoring foundation (Stichting HIV Monitoring) previously observed variation between HIV treatment centres in the Netherlands in terms of compliance with guidelines for performing laboratory tests. Drawing on qualitative research methods, this article aims to describe factors that influence guideline compliance for laboratory monitoring in outpatient HIV care in the Netherlands. Twelve semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with a convenience sample of physicians from four HIV treatment centres. In general, physicians perceived laboratory guidelines as useful. However, unclear online visual representation of the guidelines, a lack of set reminders for tests, and assessment of patients' risk behaviour, which differs per patient, were identified as barriers to guideline compliance. The compartmentalisation of the Dutch healthcare system was viewed as hampering guideline compliance. A clinical-decision-support tool could possibly facilitate compliance with laboratory monitoring guidelines. Moreover, better alignment of HIV outpatient care, municipal health services and primary care, in terms of laboratory testing, could optimize efficiency, increase cost-effectiveness, and improve quality of HIV care.

Pretreatment HIV drug resistance results in virological failure and accumulation of additional resistance mutations in Ugandan children.

Background: Pretreatment HIV drug resistance (PDR) can impair virological response to ART, jeopardizing effective treatment for children. Methods: Children aged ≤12 years initiated first-line ART in Uganda during 2010-11. Baseline and 6 monthly viral load (VL) and genotypic resistance testing if VL >1000 copies/mL was done. The 2015 IAS-USA mutation list and Stanford algorithm were used to score drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and susceptibility. Virological failure (VF) was defined as two consecutive VLs >1000 copies/mL or death after 6 months of ART. Factors associated with failure and acquired drug resistance (ADR) were assessed in a logistic regression analysis. Results: Among 317 children enrolled, median age was 4.9 years and 91.5% received NNRTI-based regimens. PDR was detected in 47/278 (16.9%) children, of whom 22 (7.9%) had resistance against their first-line regimen and were therefore on a partially active regimen. After 24 months of follow-up, 92/287 (32.1%) had experienced VF. Children with PDR had a higher risk of VF (OR 15.25, P < 0.001) and ADR (OR 3.58, P = 0.01). Conclusions: Almost one-third of children experienced VF within 24 months of NNRTI-based first-line treatment. PDR was the strongest predictor of VF and ADR, and therefore presents a major threat in children. There is a need for ART regimens that maximize effectiveness of first-line therapy for long-term treatment success in the presence of PDR or incorporation of routine VL testing to detect VF and change treatment in time, in order to prevent clinical deterioration and accumulation of additional drug resistance. Children ≤3 years should be initiated on a PI-based regimen as per WHO guidelines.

Second-line HIV Treatment in Ugandan Children: Favorable Outcomes and No Protease Inhibitor Resistance.

Background: Data on pediatric second-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes are scarce, but essential to evaluate second-line and design third-line regimens. Methods: Children ≤12 years switching to second-line ART containing a protease inhibitor (PI) in Uganda were followed for 24 months. Viral load (VL) was determined at switch to second-line and every 6 months thereafter; genotypic resistance testing was done if VL ≥ 1000 cps/ml. Results: 60 children were included in the analysis; all had ≥1 drug resistance mutations at switch. Twelve children (20.0%) experienced treatment failure; no PI mutations were detected. Sub-optimal adherence and underweight were associated with treatment failure. Conclusions: No PI mutations occurred in children failing second-line ART, which is reassuring as pediatric third-line is not routinely available in these settings. Poor adherence rather than HIV drug resistance is likely to be the main mechanism for treatment failure and should receive close attention in children on second-line ART.

Protease Inhibitor Resistance in the First 3 Years of Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV-1 in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: As antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in sub-Saharan Africa mature, increasing numbers of persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection will experience treatment failure, and require second- or third-line ART. Data on second-line failure and development of protease inhibitor (PI) resistance in sub-Saharan Africa are scarce. METHODS: HIV-1-infected adults were included if they received >180 days of PI-based second-line ART. We assessed risk factors for having a detectable viral load (VL, ≥400 cps/mL) using Cox models. If VL was ≥1000 cps/mL, genotyping was performed. RESULTS: Of 227 included participants, 14.6%, 15.2% and 11.1% had VLs ≥400 cps/mL at 12, 24, and 36 months, respectively. Risk factors for a detectable VL were as follows: exposure to nonstandard nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based (hazard ratio, 7.10; 95% confidence interval, 3.40-14.83; P < .001) or PI-based (7.59; 3.02-19.07; P = .001) first-line regimen compared with zidovudine/lamivudine/NNRTI, PI resistance at switch (6.69; 2.49-17.98; P < .001), and suboptimal adherence (3.05; 1.71-5.42; P = .025). Among participants with VLs ≥1000 cps/mL, 22 of 32 (69%) harbored drug resistance mutation(s), and 7 of 32 (22%) harbored PI resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Although VL suppression rates were high, PI resistance was detected in 22% of participants with VLs ≥1000 cps/mL. To ensure long-term ART success, intensified support for adherence, VL and drug resistance testing, and third-line drugs will be necessary.

Suboptimal Viral Suppression Rates Among HIV-Infected Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The 90-90-90 goal to achieve viral suppression in 90% of all human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected people on antiretroviral treatment (ART) is especially challenging in children. Global estimates of viral suppression among children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are lacking. METHODS: We searched for randomized controlled trials and observational studies and analyzed viral suppression rates among children started on ART during 3 time periods: early (2000-2005), intermediate (2006-2009), and current (2010 and later), using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Seventy-two studies, reporting on 51 347 children (aged <18 years), were included. After 12 months on first-line ART, viral suppression was achieved by 64.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 57.5-71.8) in the early, 74.2% (95% CI, 70.2-78.2) in the intermediate, and 72.7% (95% 62.6-82.8) in the current time period. Rates were similar after 6 and 24 months of ART. Using an intention-to-treat analysis, 42.7% (95% CI, 33.7-51.7) in the early, 45.7% (95% CI, 33.2-58.3) in the intermediate, and 62.5% (95% CI, 53.3-72.6) in the current period were suppressed. Long-term follow-up data were scarce. CONCLUSIONS: Viral suppression rates among children on ART in LMICs were low and considerably poorer than those previously found in adults in LMICs and children in high-income countries. Little progress has been made in improving viral suppression rates over the past years. Without increased efforts to improve pediatric HIV treatment, the 90-90-90 goal for children in LMIC will not be reached.

Accumulation of HIV-1 drug resistance after continued virological failure on first-line ART in adults and children in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Limited availability of viral load (VL) monitoring in HIV treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa can delay switching to second-line ART, leading to the accumulation of drug resistance mutations (DRMs). The objective of this study was to evaluate the accumulation of resistance to reverse transcriptase inhibitors after continued virological failure on first-line ART, among adults and children in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: HIV-1-positive adults and children on an NNRTI-based first-line ART were included. Retrospective VL and, if VL ≥1000 copies/mL, pol genotypic testing was performed. Among participants with continued virological failure (≥2 VL ≥1000 copies/mL), drug resistance was evaluated. RESULTS: At first virological failure, DRM(s) were detected in 87% of participants: K103N (38.7%), G190A (21.8%), Y181C (20.2%), V106M (8.4%), K101E (8.4%), any E138 (7.6%) and V108I (7.6%) associated with NNRTIs, and M184V (69.7%), any thymidine analogue mutation (9.2%), K65R (5.9%) and K70R (5.0%) associated with NRTIs. New DRMs accumulated with an average rate of 1.45 (SD 2.07) DRM per year; 0.62 (SD 1.11) NNRTI DRMs and 0.84 (SD 1.38) NRTI DRMs per year, respectively. The predicted susceptibility declined significantly after continued virological failure for all reverse transcriptase inhibitors (all P < 0.001). Acquired drug resistance patterns were similar in adults and children. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of drug resistance after virological failure on first-line ART are similar in adults and children in sub-Saharan Africa. Improved VL monitoring to prevent accumulation of mutations, and new drug classes to construct fully active regimens, are required.

Long-term Virological Outcomes of First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV-1 in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: More than 11.7 million people are currently receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and focused efforts are needed to ensure high levels of adherence and to minimize treatment failure. Recently, international targets have emphasized the importance of long-term virological suppression as a key measure of program performance. METHODS: We systematically reviewed publications and conference abstracts published between January 2006 and May 2013 that reported virological outcomes among human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected adults receiving first-line ART for up to 5 years in LMICs. Summary estimates of virological suppression after 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months of ART were analyzed using random-effects meta-analysis. Intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis assumed all participants who were lost to follow-up, died, or stopped ART as having virological failure. RESULTS: Summary estimates of virological suppression remained >80% for up to 60 months of ART for all 184 included cohorts. ITT analysis yielded 74.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 72.2-77.2) suppression after 6 months and 61.8% (95% CI, 44.0-79.7) suppression after 48 months on ART. Switches to second-line ART were reported scarcely. CONCLUSIONS: Among individuals retained on ART, virological suppression rates during the first 5 years of ART were high (>80%) and stable. Suppression rates in ITT analysis declined during 4 years.

Pretreatment HIV drug resistance increases regimen switches in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: After the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Africa, increasing numbers of patients have pretreatment drug resistance. METHODS: In a large multicountry cohort of patients starting standard first-line ART in six African countries, pol genotyping was retrospectively performed if viral load (VL) ≥1000 cps/mL. Pretreatment drug resistance was defined as a decreased susceptibility to ≥1 prescribed drug. We assessed the effect of pretreatment drug resistance on all-cause mortality, new AIDS events and switch to second-line ART due to presumed treatment failure, using Cox models. RESULTS: Among 2579 participants for whom a pretreatment genotype was available, 5.5% had pretreatment drug resistance. Pretreatment drug resistance was associated with an increased risk of regimen switch (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.49-9.68; P = .005) but was not associated with mortality (aHR 0.75, 95% CI, .24-2.35; P = .617) or new AIDS events (aHR 1.06, 95% CI, .68-1.64; P = .807). During three years of follow up, 106 (4.1%) participants switched to second-line, of whom 18 (17.0%) switched with VL < 1000 cps/mL, 7 (6.6%) with VL ≥ 1000 cps/mL and no drug resistance mutations (DRMs), 46 (43.4%) with VL ≥ 1000 cps/mL and ≥1 DRMs; no HIV RNA data was available for 32 (30.2%) participants. CONCLUSIONS: Given rising pretreatment HIV drug resistance levels in sub-Saharan Africa, these findings underscore the need for expanded access to second-line ART. VL monitoring can improve the accuracy of failure detection and efficiency of switching practices.

The role of the (in)accessibility of social media data for infodemic management: a public health perspective on the situation in the European Union in March 2024.

Public health institutions rely on the access to social media data to better understand the dynamics and impact of infodemics - an overabundance of information during a disease outbreak, potentially including mis-and disinformation. The scope of the COVID-19 infodemic has led to growing concern in the public health community. The spread of harmful information or information voids may negatively impact public health. In this context, social media are of particular relevance as an integral part of our society, where much information is consumed. In this perspective paper, we discuss the current state of (in)accessibility of social media data of the main platforms in the European Union. The European Union's relatively new Digital Services Act introduces the obligation for platforms to provide data access to a wide range of researchers, likely including researchers at public health institutions without formal academic affiliation. We examined eight platforms (Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Snapchat, TikTok, X, YouTube) affected by the new legislation in regard to data accessibility. We found that all platforms apart from TikTok offer data access through the Digital Services Act. Potentially, this presents a fundamentally new situation for research, as before the Digital Services Act, few platforms granted data access or only to very selective groups of researchers. The access regime under the Digital Services Act is, however, still evolving. Specifics such as the application procedure for researcher access are still being worked out and results can be expected in spring 2024. The impact of the Digital Services Act on research will therefore only become fully apparent in the future.

Establishing Infodemic Management in Germany: A Framework for Social Listening and Integrated Analysis to Report Infodemic Insights at the National Public Health Institute.

BACKGROUND: To respond to the need to establish infodemic management functions at the national public health institute in Germany (Robert Koch Institute, RKI), we explored and assessed available data sources, developed a social listening and integrated analysis framework, and defined when infodemic management functions should be activated during emergencies. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to establish a framework for social listening and integrated analysis for public health in the German context using international examples and technical guidance documents for infodemic management. METHODS: This study completed the following objectives: identified (potentially) available data sources for social listening and integrated analysis; assessed these data sources for their suitability and usefulness for integrated analysis in addition to an assessment of their risk using the RKI's standardized data protection requirements; developed a framework and workflow to combine social listening and integrated analysis to report back actionable infodemic insights for public health communications by the RKI and stakeholders; and defined criteria for activating integrated analysis structures in the context of a specific health event or health emergency. RESULTS: We included and classified 38% (16/42) of the identified and assessed data sources for social listening and integrated analysis at the RKI into 3 categories: social media and web-based listening data, RKI-specific data, and infodemic insights. Most data sources can be analyzed weekly to detect current trends and narratives and to inform a timely response by reporting insights that include a risk assessment and scalar judgments of different narratives and themes. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified, assessed, and prioritized a wide range of data sources for social listening and integrated analysis to report actionable infodemic insights, ensuring a valuable first step in establishing and operationalizing infodemic management at the RKI. This case study also serves as a roadmap for others. Ultimately, once operational, these activities will inform better and targeted public health communication at the RKI and beyond.

Long-term HIV treatment outcomes and associated factors in sub-Saharan Africa: multicountry longitudinal cohort analysis.

OBJECTIVE: In a multicountry prospective cohort of persons with HIV from six countries between 2007 and 2015, we evaluated long-term outcomes of first-line non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy (ART), and risk factors for loss-to-follow-up, mortality, virological failure, and incomplete CD4 + T-cell recovery. METHODS: We calculated cumulative incidence of lost-to-follow-up, death, virological failure (VL ≥ 1000 cps/ml) and incomplete CD4 + T-cell recovery (<500 cells/µl) at successive years, using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. RESULTS: Of 2735 participants, 58.0% were female, median age was 37 (interquartile range [IQR] 32-43) years, and median pre-ART CD4 + T-cell count was 135 (IQR 63-205)/µl. Total follow-up time was 7208 person-years (median 24.3 months, IQR 18.7-58.3). Deaths by any cause and loss to follow-up occurred mostly during the first year of ART (84%, 201/240 and 56%, 199/353, respectively). During their first 6 years of ART, 71% (95% confidence interval [CI] 69.0-73.7) were retained on first-line, and among those 90-93% sustained viral suppression (<1000 cps/ml); CD4 + T-cell recovery was incomplete in 60% (220/363) of participants. The risk factors associated with poor outcomes during long-term ART were: for loss-to-follow-up, recent VL ≥1000 cps/ml, recent CD4 + T-cell count ≤50 cells/µl, age <30 years, being underweight; for mortality, recent CD4 + T-cell count ≤50 cells/µl; and, for virological failure, age <40 years, recent CD4 + T-cell count ≤200 cells/µl, poor adherence, male sex, and low-level viremia. CONCLUSION: To achieve long-term ART success towards the UNAIDS targets, early ART initiation is crucial, coupled with careful monitoring and retention support, particularly in the first year of ART. Male and youth-centred care delivery models are needed to improve outcomes for those vulnerable groups.

Social media for field epidemiologists (#SoMe4epi): How to use Twitter during the #COVID19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally changed the way that public health professionals work and communicate. Over a very short time span, remote working arrangements have become the norm, and meetings have shifted online. Physical distancing measures have accelerated a trend toward digital communication and social exchange. At the same time, the work of epidemiologists has been held under a magnifying glass by journalists, governments and the general public, in a way not previously seen. With social media becoming an integral part of our society over the last decade, Twitter is now a key communication tool and platform for social networking among epidemiologists (#EpiTwitter). In this article, we reflect on the use of Twitter by field epidemiologists and public health microbiologists for rapid professional exchange, public communication of science and professional development during the pandemic and the associated risks. For those field epidemiologists new to social media, we discuss how Twitter can be used in a variety of ways, both at their home institutions and during field deployment. These include information dissemination, science communication and public health advocacy, professional development, networking and experience exchange.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions on other notifiable infectious diseases in Germany: An analysis of national surveillance data during week 1-2016 - week 32-2020.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) affect healthcare seeking behaviour, access to healthcare, test strategies, disease notification and workload at public health authorities, but may also lead to a true change in transmission dynamics. We aimed to assess the impact of the pandemic and NPIs on other notifiable infectious diseases under surveillance in Germany. METHODS: We included 32 nationally notifiable disease categories with case numbers >100/year in 2016-2019. We used quasi-Poisson regression analysis on a weekly aggregated time-series incorporating trend and seasonality, to compute the relative change in case numbers during week 2020-10 to 2020-32 (pandemic/NPIs), in comparison to week 2016-01 to 2020-09. FINDINGS: During week 2020-10 to 2020-32, 216,825 COVID-19 cases, and 162,942 (-35%) cases of other diseases, were notified. Case numbers decreased across all ages and notification categories (all p<0•05), except for tick-borne encephalitis, which increased (+58%). The number of cases decreased most for respiratory diseases (from -86% for measles, to -12% for tuberculosis), gastro-intestinal diseases (from -83% for rotavirus gastroenteritis, to -7% for yersiniosis) and imported vector-borne diseases (-75% dengue fever, -73% malaria). The less affected infections were healthcare associated pathogens (from -43% infection/colonisation with carbapenem-non-susceptible Acinetobacter, to -28% for Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus invasive infection) and sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases (from -28% for hepatitis B, to -12% for syphilis). INTERPRETATION: During the COVID-19 pandemic a drastic decrease of notifications for most infectious diseases and pathogens was observed. Our findings suggest effects of NPIs on overall disease transmission that require further investigation. FUNDING: The Robert Koch Institute is the National Public Health Institute of Germany, and is an institute within the portfolio of the Federal Ministry of Health.