RESUMO
BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality figures for 2024 for the European Union (EU), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We focused on mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Based on cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases from 1970 until the most available year, we predicted deaths and age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 2024 for all cancers and the 10 most common cancer sites. We fitted a linear regression to the most recent trend segment identified by the joinpoint model. The number of avoided deaths since the peak in 1988-2024 was estimated for all cancers and CRC. RESULTS: We predicted 1 270 800 cancer deaths for 2024 in the EU, corresponding to ASRs of 123.2/100 000 men (-6.5% versus 2018) and 79.0/100 000 women (-4.3%). Since 1988, about 6.2 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU and 1.3 million in the UK. Pancreatic cancer displayed unfavorable predicted rates for both sexes (+1.6% in men and +4.0% in women) and lung cancer for women (+0.3%). The focus on CRC showed falls in mortality at all ages in the EU, by 4.8% for men and 9.5% for women since 2018. The largest declines in CRC mortality are predicted among those 70+ years old. In the UK, projected ASRs for CRC at all ages are favorable for men (-3.4% versus 2018) but not for women (+0.3%). Below age 50 years, CRC mortality showed unfavorable trends in Italy and the UK, in Poland and Spain for men, and in Germany for women. CONCLUSIONS: Predicted cancer mortality rates remain favorable in the EU and the UK, mainly in males due to earlier smoking cessation compared to females, underlining the persisting major role of tobacco on cancer mortality in Europe. Attention should be paid to the predicted increases in CRC mortality in young adults.
Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Neoplasias , Masculino , Adulto Jovem , Humanos , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Previsões , Alemanha , MortalidadeRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the association between lung cancer and waterpipe smoking, which is an emerging global public health concern. STUDY DESIGN: Multicentre case-control study. METHODS: This study included 627 cases and 3477 controls from the Iranian Study of Opium and Cancer (IROPICAN) study, which was conducted between 2017 and 2020. One frequency-matched control for each lung cancer patient was selected by age, gender and residential place; however, this study used controls of four cancer types in the analyses. The multivariable logistic regression model estimated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Additional analyses were performed among 181 lung cancer cases and 2141 controls who were not cigarette smokers or opium or nass/pipe users. RESULTS: The odds of lung cancer were higher among waterpipe smokers than never-smokers (OR = 1.3, 95% CI: 1.0-1.7). Results showed a higher OR of lung cancer for those who smoked the waterpipe daily (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.4-3.0), smoked more than two heads per day (OR = 2.7, 95% CI: 1.8-4.0), had smoked for >20 years (OR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.3-2.7), smoked more than 20 head-years (OR = 2.8, 95% CI: 1.9-4.1) and initiated smoking before the age of 30 years (OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.1-2.5). The association was only statistically significant for squamous cell carcinomas (OR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.7). Furthermore, this study observed a higher OR of lung cancer among exclusive waterpipe smokers (OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.6, 3.5). CONCLUSIONS: Waterpipe smoking was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer. The association was stronger with higher frequency, duration and intensity of exposure to waterpipe smoking. The association increases in exclusive waterpipe smokers, which is likely due to controlling for residual confounding by cigarette smoking and opium consumption, and higher exposure levels in this subpopulation.
Assuntos
Neoplasias Pulmonares , Fumar Cachimbo de Água , Humanos , Irã (Geográfico)/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/etiologia , Masculino , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Feminino , Fumar Cachimbo de Água/epidemiologia , Fumar Cachimbo de Água/efeitos adversos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Fatores de Risco , IdosoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality figures for 2023 for the European Union (EU-27), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We also focused on mortality from lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2018, we predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 2023 for all cancers combined and the 10 most common cancer sites. We investigated the changes in trends over the observed period. The number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2023 were estimated for all cancers as well as lung cancer. RESULTS: We predicted 1 261 990 cancer deaths for 2023 in the EU-27, corresponding to ASRs of 123.8/100 000 men (-6.5% versus 2018) and 79.3 for women (-3.7%). Over 1989-2023, â¼5 862 600 cancer deaths were avoided in the EU-27 compared with peak rates in 1988. Most cancers displayed favorable predicted rates, with the exceptions of pancreatic cancer, which was stable in EU men (8.2/100 000) and rose by 3.4% in EU women (5.9/100 000), and female lung cancer, which, however, tends to level off (13.6/100 000). Steady declines are predicted for colorectal, breast, prostate, leukemia, stomach in both sexes, and male bladder cancers. The focus on lung cancer showed falls in mortality for all age groups in men. Female lung cancer mortality declined in the young (-35.8%, ASR: 0.8/100 000) and middle-aged (-7%, ASR: 31.2/100 000) but still increased by 10% in the elderly (age 65+ years). CONCLUSIONS: The advancements in tobacco control are reflected in favorable lung cancer trends, and should be pushed further. Greater efforts on the control of overweight and obesity, alcohol consumption, infection and related neoplasms, together with improvements in screening, early diagnosis, and treatments may achieve a further 35% reduction in cancer mortality in the EU by 2035.
Assuntos
Leucemia , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Neoplasias , Neoplasias Pancreáticas , Idoso , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , União Europeia , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Mortalidade , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Existing evidence suggests that ingestion of high doses of arsenic through drinking water is associated with an increased risk of genitourinary cancers, while systematic evidence on workers exposed to arsenic is lacking. AIMS: The aim of this study is to systematically review the evidence on the association between occupational exposure to arsenic and genitourinary cancer risk and mortality. METHODS: A systematic literature search was carried out on Pubmed, Web of Science and Embase by including cohort and case-control studies. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using Mandel-Paule random-effects model. Contour-enhanced funnel plot and Egger's test were used to assess the occurrence of publication bias. RESULTS: A total of 17 studies were included in the meta-analysis, 7 on cancer incidence (n = 161,244 individuals) and 10 on cancer mortality (n = 91,868). Most of them were cohort (71%) and industry-based studies (59%). The meta-analysis failed to detect an increased risk of genitourinary cancers among workers exposed to arsenic, except for a suggestive but not significant positive association for bladder cancer incidence (RR: 1.26, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.80), although this estimate was based on only three studies. No compelling evidence of publication bias was found (P = 0.885). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings did not show an association between occupational exposure to arsenic and genitourinary cancers, although further high-quality studies with detailed exposure assessment at the individual level are needed to clarify this relationship.
Assuntos
Arsênio , Neoplasias , Exposição Ocupacional , Neoplasias Urogenitais , Humanos , Arsênio/toxicidade , Exposição Ocupacional/efeitos adversos , Risco , Neoplasias Urogenitais/induzido quimicamente , Neoplasias Urogenitais/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality rates, though not absolute numbers of deaths, have been decreasing over the last three decades in Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We estimated projections and the number of avoided deaths for total cancer mortality and 10 major cancer sites, between 1989 and 2022, for the European Union (EU), the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain using cancer death certification and population data since 1970 from the World Health Organization and Eurostat. RESULTS: In the EU, we predict 1 269 200 cancer deaths in 2022; corresponding age-standardized rates (world) fall 6% to 126.9 deaths/100 000 in men and 4% to 80.2/100 000 women since 2017. Male lung cancer is expected to fall 10% reaching 30.9/100 000. The rise in female lung cancer mortality slowed (+2% to 13.8/100 000). We estimated 369 000 (23%) avoided deaths in 2022 alone and a total of 5 394 000 (12%) deaths since the peak rate in 1988. Stomach, colorectal, breast and prostate cancers showed substantial declines, between 5% and 16% over the past 5 years. Pancreatic cancer remained stable in men (8.1/100 000) and rose 3% in women (5.9/100 000), becoming the third cause of cancer mortality in the EU (87 300 deaths), overtaking breast cancer (86 300 deaths). The fall in uterine cancers slowed down (-4%) to 4.7/100 000. Bladder cancer fell 9% in men, but was stable in women. Leukaemias fell more than 10%. Ovarian cancer mortality declined over the past decade in all considered countries. EU predicted rates were 4.3/100 000 (-13%) all ages, 1.2/100 000 (-26%) at 20-49, 15.3/100 000 (-11%) at 50-69 and 32.3/100 000 (-11%) at 70-79 years. CONCLUSIONS: We predicted additional declines in cancer mortality rates for 2022. The slowdown in female lung cancer mortality reflects some levelling of smoking in women. Favourable ovarian cancer trends are likely to continue and are largely attributable to the spreading oral contraceptive use and some impact of improved diagnosis and management.
Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Neoplasias , Neoplasias Ovarianas , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Previsões , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , MortalidadeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality statistics for 2021 for the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries plus the UK. We also focused on pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardised (world population) rates for 2021 for total cancers and 10 major cancer sites, using a joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2021. RESULTS: We predicted 1 267 000 cancer deaths for 2021 in the EU, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 130.4/100 000 men (-6.6% since 2015) and 81.0/100 000 for women (-4.5%). We estimated further falls in male lung cancer rates, but still trending upward in women by +6.5%, reaching 14.5/100 000 in 2021. The breast cancer predicted rate in the EU was 13.3/100 000 (-7.8%). The rates for stomach and leukaemias in both sexes and for bladder in males are predicted to fall by >10%; trends for other cancer sites were also favourable, except for the pancreas, which showed stable patterns in both sexes, with predicted rates of 8.1/100 000 in men and 5.6/100 000 in women. Rates for pancreatic cancer in EU men aged 25-49 and 50-64 years declined, respectively, by 10% and 1.8%, while for those aged 65+ years increased by 1.3%. Rates fell for young women only (-3.4%). Over 1989-2021, about 5 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU27 compared with peak rates in 1988. CONCLUSION: Overall cancer mortality continues to fall in both sexes. However, specific focus is needed on pancreatic cancer, which shows a sizeable decline for young men only. Tobacco control remains a priority for the prevention of pancreatic and other tobacco-related cancers, which account for one-third of the total EU cancer deaths, especially in women, who showed less favourable trends.
Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama , Leucemia , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Neoplasias , Idoso , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , União Europeia , Feminino , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Masculino , Mortalidade , PâncreasRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Although myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), acute myeloid leukemia (AML), myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) - including chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) - and myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasms (MDS/MPN) are largely clinically distinct myeloid malignancies, epidemiological studies rarely examine them separately and often combine them with lymphoid malignancies, limiting possible etiological interpretations for specific myeloid malignancies. METHODS: We systematically evaluated the epidemiological literature on the four chemical agents (1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, benzene, and tobacco smoking, excluding pharmaceutical, microbial and radioactive agents, and pesticides) classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer as having sufficient epidemiological evidence to conclude that each causes "myeloid malignancies." Literature searches of IARC Monographs and PubMed identified 85 studies that we critically assessed, and for appropriate subsets, summarized results using meta-analysis. RESULTS: Only two epidemiological studies on 1,3-butadiene were identified, but reported findings were inadequate to evaluate specific myeloid malignancies. Studies on formaldehyde reported results for AML and CML - and not for MDS or MPN - but reported no increased risks. For benzene, several specific myeloid malignancies were evaluated, with consistent associations reported with AML and MDS and mixed results for CML. Studies of tobacco smoking examined all major myeloid malignancies, demonstrating consistent relationships with AML, MDS and MPN, but not with CML. CONCLUSIONS: Surprisingly few epidemiological studies present results for specific myeloid malignancies, and those identified were inconsistent across studies of the same exposure, as well as across chemical agents. This exercise illustrates that even for agents classified as having sufficient evidence of causing "myeloid malignancies," the epidemiological evidence for specific myeloid malignancies is generally limited and inconsistent. Future epidemiological studies should report findings for the specific myeloid malignancies, as combining them post hoc - where appropriate - always remains possible, whereas disaggregation may not. Furthermore, combining results across possibly discrete diseases reduces the chances of identifying important malignancy-specific causal associations.
Assuntos
Carcinógenos Ambientais/efeitos adversos , Estudos Epidemiológicos , Síndromes Mielodisplásicas/epidemiologia , Doenças Mieloproliferativas-Mielodisplásicas/epidemiologia , Transtornos Mieloproliferativos/epidemiologia , Causalidade , Humanos , Síndromes Mielodisplásicas/induzido quimicamente , Doenças Mieloproliferativas-Mielodisplásicas/induzido quimicamente , Transtornos Mieloproliferativos/induzido quimicamenteRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Current cancer mortality figures are important for disease management and resource allocation. We estimated mortality counts and rates for 2020 in the European Union (EU) and for its six most populous countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We estimated projections to 2020 for 10 major cancer sites plus all neoplasms and calculated the number of avoided deaths over 1989-2020. RESULTS: Total cancer mortality rates in the EU are predicted to decline reaching 130.1/100 000 men (-5.4% since 2015) and 82.2 in women (-4.1%) in 2020. The predicted number of deaths will increase by 4.7% reaching 1 428 800 in 2020. In women, the upward lung cancer trend is predicted to continue with a rate in 2020 of 15.1/100 000 (higher than that for breast cancer, 13.5) while in men we predicted further falls. Pancreatic cancer rates are also increasing in women (+1.2%) but decreasing in men (-1.9%). In the EU, the prostate cancer predicted rate is 10.0/100 000, declining by 7.1% since 2015; decreases for this neoplasm are â¼8% at age 45-64, 14% at 65-74 and 75-84, and 6% at 85 and over. Poland is the only country with an increasing prostate cancer trend (+18%). Mortality rates for other cancers are predicted to decline further. Over 1989-2020, we estimated over 5 million avoided total cancer deaths and over 400 000 for prostate cancer. CONCLUSION: Cancer mortality predictions for 2020 in the EU are favourable with a greater decline in men. The number of deaths continue to rise due to population ageing. Due to the persistent amount of predicted lung (and other tobacco-related) cancer deaths, tobacco control remains a public health priority, especially for women. Favourable trends for prostate cancer are largely attributable to continuing therapeutic improvements along with early diagnosis.
Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Neoplasias , Neoplasias da Próstata , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , União Europeia , Previsões , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade , Neoplasias/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Survival from head and neck cancers (HNCs) of the lip, oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx has increased by 10% over the past few decades. Little over half of patients who develop HNCs will survive beyond 5 years. Survival is lower for individuals in many countries where traditional risk factors such as tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, and betel quid chewing are highly prevalent but tertiary health care center access is limited or unavailable. Early diagnosis of HNC is the most important prognostic factor for each tumor site. Molecular-based research on HNC tumors holds promise for early stage detection, screening, vaccination, disease follow-up, and progression. Future investments for HNC control must consider both effectiveness and sustainability for both high- and low-resource countries alike, with priority toward risk factor prevention and earlier diagnosis.
Assuntos
Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/prevenção & controle , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/diagnóstico , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/patologia , Estilo de Vida Saudável , Humanos , Patologia Molecular/métodos , Padrões de Prática Médica , Prevenção Primária , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: To overcome the lag with which cancer statistics become available, we predicted numbers of deaths and rates from all cancers and selected cancer sites for 2019 in the European Union (EU). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrieved cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2014. We obtained estimates for 2019 with a linear regression on number of deaths over the most recent trend period identified by a logarithmic Poisson joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2019. RESULTS: We estimated about 1 410 000 cancer deaths in the EU for 2019, corresponding to age-standardized rates of 130.9/100 000 men (-5.9% since 2014) and 82.9 women (-3.6%). Lung cancer trends in women are predicted to increase 4.4% between 2014 and 2019, reaching a rate of 14.8. The projected rate for breast cancer was 13.4. Favourable trends for major neoplasms are predicted to continue, except for pancreatic cancer. Trends in breast cancer mortality were favourable in all six countries considered, except Poland. The falls were largest in women 50-69 (-16.4%), i.e. the age group covered by screening, but also seen at age 20-49 (-13.8%), while more modest at age 70-79 (-6.1%). As compared to the peak rate in 1988, over 5 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU over the 1989-2019 period. Of these, 440 000 were breast cancer deaths. CONCLUSION: Between 2014 and 2019, cancer mortality will continue to fall in both sexes. Breast cancer rates will fall steadily, with about 35% decline in rates over the last three decades. This is likely due to reduced hormone replacement therapy use, improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatment. Due to population ageing, however, the number of breast cancer deaths is not declining.
Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama/mortalidade , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Bases de Dados Factuais , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Prognóstico , Taxa de Sobrevida , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Background: Predicted cancer mortality figures and rates are useful for public health planning. Materials and methods: We retrieved cancer death certification data for 10 major cancer sites and total cancers from the World Health Organization (WHO) database and population data from WHO and United Nations Population Division databases. We obtained figures for Russia, Israel, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, Korea, and Australia in 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths by age group and age-standardized rates (world population) for 2018 by applying a linear regression to mortality data of each age group over the most recent trend segment identified by a joinpoint regression model. Results: Russia had the highest predicted total cancer mortality rates, 158.5/100 000 men and 84.1/100 000 women. Men in the Philippines showed the lowest rates for 2018 (84.6/100 000) and Korean males the most favourable predicted fall (21% between 2012 and 2018). Women in Korea had the lowest total cancer predicted rate (52.5/100 000). Between 1993 and 2018, i.e. by applying the 1993 rates to populations in subsequent years, a substantial number of cancer deaths was avoided in Russia (1 000 000 deaths, 821 000 in men and 179 000 in women), Israel (40 000 deaths, 21 000 in men and 19 000 in women), Hong Kong (63 000 deaths, 40 000 in men and 23 000 in women), Japan (651 000 deaths, 473 000 in men and 178 000 in women), Korea (327 000 deaths, 250 000 in men and 77 000 in women), and Australia (181 000 deaths, 125 000 in men and 56 000 in women). No appreciable reduction in cancer deaths was found in the Philippines. Conclusion: Overall, we predicted falls in cancer mortality. However, these are less marked and later compared with the European Union and United States. Substantial numbers of deaths were avoided in all countries considered except the Philippines. Lung cancer mortality remains exceedingly high in Russian men, despite recent falls.
Assuntos
Mortalidade/tendências , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Ásia/epidemiologia , Austrália/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , União Europeia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Federação Russa/epidemiologia , Taxa de Sobrevida , Fatores de Tempo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Population ageing results in an increasing cancer burden in the elderly. We aimed to evaluate time-trends in cancer mortality for adults aged 65 and over for 17 major cancer types and all cancers combined in 11 countries worldwide over the period 1970-2015. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained cancer death certification and population figures from the WHO and PAHO databases. We computed age-standardised (world standard population) rates for individuals aged 65 and over, and applied joinpoint regression models. RESULTS: Age-standardised mortality rates for all cancers combined showed a heterogeneous, but widespread decline. Lung cancer mortality rates have been decreasing among men, and increasing among women. Pancreatic cancer had unfavourable trends in all countries for both sexes. Despite variability across countries, other tobacco-related cancers (except kidney) showed overall favourable trends, except in Poland and Russia. Age-standardised mortality rates from stomach cancer have been declining in all countries for both sexes. Colorectal mortality has been declining, except in Poland and Russia. Liver cancer mortality increased in all countries, except in Japan, France and Italy, which had the highest rates in the past. Breast cancer mortality decreased for most countries, except for Japan, Poland and Russia. Trends for age-standardised uterine cancer rates in the USA, Canada and the UK were increasing over the last decade. Ovarian cancer rates showed declines in most countries. With the exception of Russia, prostate cancer rates showed overall declines. Lymphoid neoplasms rates have been declining in both sexes, except in Poland and Russia. CONCLUSION: Over the last decades, age-standardised cancer mortality in the elderly has been decreasing in major countries worldwide and for major cancer sites, with the major exception of lung and uterine cancer in women and liver, pancreatic and kidney cancers in both sexes. Cancer mortality for the elderly in central and eastern Europe remains comparatively high.
Assuntos
Carga Global da Doença/tendências , Mortalidade/tendências , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Bases de Dados Factuais/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Organização Mundial da SaúdeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality in Europe has been decreasing since the late 1980s or 1990s in some countries with different patterns in many areas. In this study, we updated trends in cancer mortality in Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted data from the World Health Organization mortality database for 24 cancer sites, 36 European countries and the European Union (EU) as a whole over the 1990-2017 period. We computed age-standardized death rates per 100 000 person-years, and we carried out a joinpoint regression analysis of mortality trends from all cancers and selected major neoplasms. The estimated annual percent change (APC) for each identified linear segment, and the weighted average APC (AAPC) over the entire study period were provided as summary measures of the changes in rates over the time period. RESULTS: In 2015, the age-standardized mortality rates from all cancers in the EU were 137.5 deaths per 100 000 in men and 85.7 in women. Eastern European countries showed the highest rates with values over 150 deaths per 100 000 in men and over 100 deaths per 100 000 in women. Mortality from all cancers in the EU declined annually by 1.5% in men since 2006 and by 0.8% in women since 2007. Most cancer sites showed decreasing trends, with steady declines over the whole period for cancers of stomach, intestines, lung in men, breast and prostate. Unfavourable mortality trends persisted for cancers of liver, lung in women, pancreas, besides skin and kidney in men. CONCLUSIONS: The downward trends in total cancer mortality in Europe still continue over the last decade. However, the trends were less favourable in most eastern European countries. Tobacco control in men (but not in women), improvements in diagnosis and therapy were the main underlying factors of these trends.
Assuntos
Mortalidade/tendências , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Bases de Dados Factuais/estatística & dados numéricos , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Política Pública , Fatores Sexuais , Prevenção do Hábito de Fumar/normas , Fumar Tabaco/efeitos adversos , Fumar Tabaco/epidemiologia , Fumar Tabaco/prevenção & controle , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: A few papers have considered reproducibility of a posteriori dietary patterns across populations, as well as pattern associations with head and neck cancer risk when multiple populations are available. METHODS: We used individual-level pooled data from seven case-control studies (3844 cases; 6824 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. We simultaneously derived shared and study-specific a posteriori patterns with a novel approach called multi-study factor analysis applied to 23 nutrients. We derived odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx combined, and larynx, from logistic regression models. RESULTS: We identified three shared patterns that were reproducible across studies (75% variance explained): the Antioxidant vitamins and fiber (OR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.41, 0.78, highest versus lowest score quintile) and the Fats (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.67, 0.95) patterns were inversely associated with oral and pharyngeal cancer risk. The Animal products and cereals (OR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.1, 2.1) and the Fats (OR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.4, 2.3) patterns were positively associated with laryngeal cancer risk, whereas a linear inverse trend in laryngeal cancer risk was evident for the Antioxidant vitamins and fiber pattern. We also identified four additional study-specific patterns, one for each of the four US studies examined. We named them all as Dairy products and breakfast cereals, and two were associated with oral and pharyngeal cancer risk. CONCLUSION: Multi-study factor analysis provides insight into pattern reproducibility and supports previous evidence on cross-country reproducibility of dietary patterns and on their association with head and neck cancer risk. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B430.
Assuntos
Dieta , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/epidemiologia , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Intervalos de Confiança , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Razão de Chances , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Background: We projected cancer mortality statistics for 2018 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries, using the most recent available data. We focused on colorectal cancer. Materials and methods: We obtained cancer death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, ovary, prostate, bladder, leukaemia, and total cancers from the World Health Organisation database and projected population data from Eurostat. We derived figures for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the EU in 1970-2012. We predicted death numbers by age group and age-standardized (world population) rates for 2018 through joinpoint regression models. Results: EU total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline by 10.3% in men between 2012 and 2018, reaching a predicted rate of 128.9/100 000, and by 5.0% in women with a rate of 83.6. The predicted total number of cancer deaths is 1 382 000 when compared with 1 333 362 in 2012 (+3.6%). We confirmed a further fall in male lung cancer, but an unfavourable trend in females, with a rate of 14.7/100 000 for 2018 (13.9 in 2012, +5.8%) and 94 500 expected deaths, higher than the rate of 13.7 and 92 700 deaths from breast cancer. Colorectal cancer predicted rates are 15.8/100 000 men (-6.7%) and 9.2 in women (-7.5%); declines are expected in all age groups. Pancreatic cancer is stable in men, but in women it rose +2.8% since 2012. Ovarian, uterine and bladder cancer rates are predicted to decline further. In 2018 alone, about 392 300 cancer deaths were avoided compared with peak rates in the late 1980s. Conclusion: We predicted continuing falls in mortality rates from major cancer sites in the EU and its major countries to 2018. Exceptions are pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Improved treatment and-above age 50 years-organized screening may account for recent favourable colorectal cancer trends.
Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/mortalidade , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , MasculinoRESUMO
Background: Diagnosis of mesothelioma based on death certificate is subject to misclassification, which may bias the results of epidemiology studies. A high proportion of mesothelioma harbor mutations in the BRCA1-associated protein 1 (BAP1) gene. Methods: We searched medical and pathology records and specimens for 127 workers from a textile-asbestos factory in Italy who died during 1963-2013 with a diagnosis of pleural or peritoneal neoplasm or mesothelioma on death certificate, to confirm the diagnosis with immunohistochemistry markers. We calculated the odds ratio of confirmation by selected characteristics and asbestos exposure variables. When sufficient pathology material was available, we analyzed BAP1 protein expression. Results: The diagnosis of mesothelioma was histologically confirmed for 35 cases (27.6%); 5 cases were classified as non-mesothelioma (3.9%), for 33 cases a mention of mesothelioma was found on record but no sufficient material was available for revision (26.0%); no records were available for 54 cases (death-certificate-only 42.5%). Diagnostic confirmation was not associated with sex, location of the neoplasm, age, or duration of employment; however, there was a significant association with time since first employment (P for linear trend 0.04). An association between duration of employment and time since first employment was observed for confirmed cases but not for death-certificate-only cases. BAP1 protein was lost in 18/35 cases (51.4%), without an association with sex, location, age, indices of asbestos exposure, or survival. Conclusions: We were able to confirm by immunohistochemistry a small proportion of mesothelioma diagnoses on certificates of deceased asbestos workers, and confirmation correlated with latency of asbestos exposure but not other characteristics. BAP1 protein loss is a frequent event in mesothelioma of asbestos-exposed workers, but does not correlate with exposure.
Assuntos
Amianto/efeitos adversos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Mesotelioma/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Peritoneais/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pleurais/epidemiologia , Proteínas Supressoras de Tumor/biossíntese , Ubiquitina Tiolesterase/biossíntese , Adulto , Idoso , Biomarcadores Tumorais/análise , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/etiologia , Masculino , Mesotelioma/etiologia , Mesotelioma Maligno , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Exposição Ocupacional/efeitos adversos , Neoplasias Peritoneais/etiologia , Neoplasias Pleurais/etiologia , Indústria TêxtilRESUMO
Background: Bisphosphonates are common medications for the treatment of osteoporosis in older populations. Several studies, including the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), have found inverse associations of bisphosphonate use with risk of breast and endometrial cancer, but little is known about its association with other common malignancies. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association of bisphosphonate use on the incidence of lung cancer in the WHI. Patients and methods: The association between oral bisphosphonate use and lung cancer risk was examined in 151 432 postmenopausal women enrolled into the WHI in 1993-1998. At baseline and during follow-up, participants completed an inventory of regularly used medications including bisphosphonates. Results: After a mean follow-up of 13.3 years, 2511 women were diagnosed with incident lung cancer. There was no evidence of a difference in lung cancer incidence between oral bisphosphonate users and never users (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.91; 95% confidence intervals, 0.80-1.04; P = 0.16). However, an inverse association was observed among those who were never smokers (hazard ratio = 0.57, 95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.84; P < 0.01). Conclusion: In this large prospective cohort of postmenopausal women, oral bisphosphonate use was associated with significantly lower lung cancer risk among never smokers, suggesting bisphosphonates may have a protective effect against lung cancer. Additional studies are needed to confirm our findings.
Assuntos
Conservadores da Densidade Óssea/administração & dosagem , Difosfonatos/administração & dosagem , Neoplasias Pulmonares/prevenção & controle , Pós-Menopausa/efeitos dos fármacos , Administração Oral , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Observacionais como Assunto , Prognóstico , Estudos Prospectivos , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Saúde da MulherRESUMO
Background: Smoking has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in previous studies and might also be associated with prognosis after CRC diagnosis. However, current evidence on smoking in association with CRC prognosis is limited. Patients and methods: For this individual patient data meta-analysis, sociodemographic and smoking behavior information of 12 414 incident CRC patients (median age at diagnosis: 64.3 years), recruited within 14 prospective cohort studies among previously cancer-free adults, was collected at baseline and harmonized across studies. Vital status and causes of death were collected for a mean follow-up time of 5.1 years following cancer diagnosis. Associations of smoking behavior with overall and CRC-specific survival were evaluated using Cox regression and standard meta-analysis methodology. Results: A total of 5229 participants died, 3194 from CRC. Cox regression revealed significant associations between former [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-1.20] and current smoking (HR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.04-1.60) and poorer overall survival compared with never smoking. Compared with current smoking, smoking cessation was associated with improved overall (HR<10 years = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.69-0.88; HR≥10 years = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.63-0.97) and CRC-specific survival (HR≥10 years = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.67-0.85). Conclusion: In this large meta-analysis including primary data of incident CRC patients from 14 prospective cohort studies on the association between smoking and CRC prognosis, former and current smoking were associated with poorer CRC prognosis compared with never smoking. Smoking cessation was associated with improved survival when compared with current smokers. Future studies should further quantify the benefits of nonsmoking, both for cancer prevention and for improving survival among CRC patients, in particular also in terms of treatment response.
Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/mortalidade , Fumar/efeitos adversos , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Abandono do Hábito de FumarRESUMO
The association between adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) and hip fracture incidence is not yet established. In a diverse population of elderly, increased adherence to MD was associated with lower hip fracture incidence. Except preventing major chronic diseases, adhering to MD might have additional benefits in lowering hip fracture risk. INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures constitute a major public health problem among older adults. Latest evidence links adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) with reduced hip fracture risk, but still more research is needed to elucidate this relationship. The potential association of adherence to MD with hip fracture incidence was explored among older adults. METHODS: A total of 140,775 adults (116,176 women, 24,599 men) 60 years and older, from five cohorts from Europe and the USA, were followed-up for 1,896,219 person-years experiencing 5454 hip fractures. Diet was assessed at baseline by validated, cohort-specific, food-frequency questionnaires, and hip fractures were ascertained through patient registers or telephone interviews/questionnaires. Adherence to MD was evaluated by a scoring system on a 10-point scale modified to be applied also to non-Mediterranean populations. In order to evaluate the association between MD and hip fracture incidence, cohort-specific hazard ratios (HR), adjusted for potential confounders, were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression and pooled estimates were subsequently derived implementing random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: A two-point increase in the score was associated with a significant 4% decrease in hip fracture risk (pooled adjusted HR 0.96; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.92-0.99, pheterogeneity = 0.446). In categorical analyses, hip fracture risk was lower among men and women with moderate (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.87-0.99) and high (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.87-1.01) adherence to the score compared with those with low adherence. CONCLUSIONS: In this large sample of older adults from Europe and the USA, increased adherence to MD was associated with lower hip fracture incidence.
Assuntos
Dieta Mediterrânea/estatística & dados numéricos , Fraturas do Quadril/epidemiologia , Idoso , Estudos de Coortes , Inquéritos sobre Dietas , Feminino , Seguimentos , Preferências Alimentares , Grécia/epidemiologia , Fraturas do Quadril/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Medição de Risco/métodos , Suécia/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: We predicted cancer mortality figures in the European Union (EU) for the year 2017 using most recent available data, with a focus on lung cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrieved cancer death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organisation and Eurostat databases. Age-standardized (world standard population) rates were computed for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and the EU overall in 1970-2012. We obtained estimates for 2017 by implementing a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: The predicted number of cancer deaths for 2017 in the EU is 1 373 500, compared with 1 333 400 in 2012 (+3%). Cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in both sexes, reaching 131.8/100 000 men (-8.2% when compared with 2012) and 84.5/100 000 women (-3.6%). Mortality rates for all selected cancer sites are predicted to decline, except pancreatic cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women. In men, pancreatic cancer rate is stable, in women it increases by 3.5%. Lung cancer mortality rate in women is predicted to rise to 14.6/100 000 in 2017 (+5.1% since 2012, corresponding to 92 300 predicted deaths), compared with 14.0/100 000 for breast cancer, corresponding to 92 600 predicted deaths. Only younger (25-44) women have favourable lung cancer trends, and rates at this age group are predicted to be similar in women (1.4/100 000) and men (1.2/100 000). In men lung cancer rates are predicted to decline by 10.7% since 2012, and falls are observed in all age groups. CONCLUSION: European cancer mortality projections for 2017 confirm the overall downward trend in rates, with a stronger pattern in men. This is mainly due to different smoking prevalence trends in different generations of men and women. Lung cancer rates in young European women are comparable to those in men, confirming that smoking has the same impact on lung cancer in the two sexes.