Latent multinomial models for extended batch-mark data.

Batch marking is common and useful for many capture-recapture studies where individual marks cannot be applied due to various constraints such as timing, cost, or marking difficulty. When batch marks are used, observed data are not individual capture histories but a set of counts including the numbers of individuals first marked, marked individuals that are recaptured, and individuals captured but released without being marked (applicable to some studies) on each capture occasion. Fitting traditional capture-recapture models to such data requires one to identify all possible sets of capture-recapture histories that may lead to the observed data, which is computationally infeasible even for a small number of capture occasions. In this paper, we propose a latent multinomial model to deal with such data, where the observed vector of counts is a non-invertible linear transformation of a latent vector that follows a multinomial distribution depending on model parameters. The latent multinomial model can be fitted efficiently through a saddlepoint approximation based maximum likelihood approach. The model framework is very flexible and can be applied to data collected with different study designs. Simulation studies indicate that reliable estimation results are obtained for all parameters of the proposed model. We apply the model to analysis of golden mantella data collected using batch marks in Central Madagascar.

Life span, growth, senescence and island syndrome: Accounting for imperfect detection and continuous growth.

Small vertebrates on islands are expected to attain a larger body size, and a greater survival than their mainland counterparts. Comparative studies have questioned whether lizards exhibit this set of adaptations, referred to as the 'island syndrome'. We collected data on 730 individuals the endemic Lilford's lizard Podarcis lilfordi throughout a 10-year period on a small island of the Balearic archipelago (Spain). We coupled a growth function with a capture-mark-recapture model to simultaneously estimate size- and sex-dependent growth rate and survival. To put our results into a wider context, we conducted a systematic review of growth, life span and age at maturity in different Podarcis species comparing insular and mainland populations. We found a low average growth coefficient (0.56 and 0.41 year-1 for males and females to reach an asymptotic size of 72.3 and 65.6 mm respectively), a high annual survival probability of 0.81 and 0.79 in males and females, and a large variability between individuals in growth parameters. Survival probability decreased with body size in both sexes, indicating a senescence pattern typical of long-lived species or in populations with a low extrinsic mortality. Assuming a constant survival after sexual maturity, at about 2 years old, the average life span was 6.18 years in males and 8.99 in females. The oldest animal was a male last captured at an estimated age of ≥13 years and still alive at the end of the study. Our results agree with the predictions of the 'island syndrome' for survival, life span and growth parameters. A comparative analysis of these values across 29 populations of 16 different species of Podarcis indicated that insular lizards grow slower and live longer than their mainland counterparts. However, our data differed from other island populations of the same species, suggesting that island-specific characteristics play an additional role to isolation. Within this study we developed an analytical approach to study the body size-dependent survival of small reptiles. We discuss its applicability to contrast hypotheses on senescence in different sexes of this species, and provide the code used to integrate the growth and capture-mark-recapture models.

Effects of snake fungal disease on short-term survival, behavior, and movement in free-ranging snakes.

Pathogenic fungi are increasingly associated with epidemics in wildlife populations. Snake fungal disease (SFD, also referred to as Ophidiomycosis) is an emerging threat to snakes, taxa that are elusive and difficult to sample. Thus, assessments of the effects of SFD on populations have rarely occurred. We used a field technique to enhance detection, Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) telemetry, and a multi-state capture-mark-recapture model to assess SFD effects on short-term (within-season) survival, movement, and surface activity of two wild snake species, Regina septemvittata (Queensnake) and Nerodia sipedon (Common Watersnake). We were unable to detect an effect of disease state on short-term survival for either species. However, we estimated Bayesian posterior probabilities of >0.99 that R. septemvittata with SFD spent more time surface-active and were less likely to permanently emigrate from the study area. We also estimated probabilities of 0.98 and 0.87 that temporary immigration and temporary emigration rates, respectively, were lower in diseased R. septemvittata. We found evidence of elevated surface activity and lower temporary immigration rates in diseased N. sipedon, with estimated probabilities of 0.89, and found considerably less support for differences in permanent or temporary emigration rates. This study is the first to yield estimates for key demographic and behavioral parameters (survival, emigration, surface activity) of snakes in wild populations afflicted with SFD. Given the increase in surface activity of diseased snakes, future surveys of snake populations could benefit from exploring longer-term demographic consequences of SFD and recognize that disease prevalence in surface-active animals may exceed that of the population as a whole.

On continuous-time capture-recapture in closed populations.

Schofield et al. (2018, Biometrics 74, 626-635) presented simple and efficient algorithms for fitting continuous-time capture-recapture models based on Poisson processes. They also demonstrated by real examples that the standard method of discretizing continuous-time capture-recapture data and then fitting traditional discrete-time models may lead to information loss in population size estimation. In this article, we aim to clarify that key to the approach of Schofield et al. (2018) is the Poisson model assumed for the number of captures of each individual throughout the study, rather than the fact of data being collected in continuous time. We further show that the method of data discretization works equally well as the method of Schofield et al. (2018), provided that a Poisson model is applied instead of the traditional Bernoulli model to the number of captures for each individual on each sampling occasion.

Selectivity underlies the dissociation between seasonal prey availability and prey consumption in a generalist predator.

Generalist predators are capable of selective foraging, but are predicted to feed in close proportion to prey availability to maximize energetic intake especially when overall prey availability is low. By extension, they are also expected to feed in a more frequency-dependent manner during winter compared to the more favourable foraging conditions during spring, summer and fall seasons. For 18 months, we observed the foraging patterns of forest-dwelling wolf spiders from the genus Schizocosa (Araneae: Lycosidae) using PCR-based gut-content analysis and simultaneously monitored the activity densities of two common prey: springtails (Collembola) and flies (Diptera). Rates of prey detection within spider guts relative to rates of prey collected in traps were estimated using Roualdes' cst model and compared using various linear contrasts to make inferences pertaining to seasonal prey selectivity. Results indicated spiders foraged selectively over the course of the study, contrary to predictions derived from optimal foraging theory. Even during winter, with overall low prey densities, the relative rates of predation compared to available prey differed significantly over time and by prey group. Moreover, these spiders appeared to diversify their diets; the least abundant prey group was consistently overrepresented in the diet within a given season. We suggest that foraging in generalist predators is not necessarily restricted to frequency dependency during winter. In fact, foraging motives other than energy maximization, such as a more nutrient-focused strategy, may also be optimal for generalist predators during prey-scarce winters.

Individual quality and personality: bolder males are less fecund in the hermit crab Pagurus bernhardus.

One explanation for animal personality is that different behavioural types derive from different life-history strategies. Highly productive individuals, with high growth rates and high fecundity, are assumed to live life at a fast pace showing high levels of boldness and risk taking, compared with less productive individuals. Here, we investigate among-individual differences in mean boldness (the inverse of the latency to recover from a startling stimulus) and in the consistency of boldness, in male hermit crabs in relation to two aspects of life-history investment. We assessed aerobic scope by measuring the concentration of the respiratory pigment haemocyanin, and we assessed fecundity by measuring spermatophore size. First, we found that individuals investing in large spermatophores also had high concentrations of haemocyanin. Using doubly hierarchical-generalized linear models to analyse longitudinal data on startle responses, we show that hermit crabs vary both in their mean response durations and in the consistency of their behaviour. Individual consistency was unrelated to haemocyanin concentration or spermatophore size, but mean startle response duration increased with spermatophore size. Thus, counter to expectations, it was the most risk-averse individuals, rather than the boldest and most risk prone, that were the most productive. We suggest that similar patterns should be present in other species, if the most productive individuals avoid risky behaviour.

Connecting the latent multinomial.

Link et al. (2010, Biometrics 66, 178-185) define a general framework for analyzing capture-recapture data with potential misidentifications. In this framework, the observed vector of counts, y, is considered as a linear function of a vector of latent counts, x, such that y=Ax, with x assumed to follow a multinomial distribution conditional on the model parameters, θ. Bayesian methods are then applied by sampling from the joint posterior distribution of both x and θ. In particular, Link et al. (2010) propose a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample from the full conditional distribution of x, where new proposals are generated by sequentially adding elements from a basis of the null space (kernel) of A. We consider this algorithm and show that using elements from a simple basis for the kernel of A may not produce an irreducible Markov chain. Instead, we require a Markov basis, as defined by Diaconis and Sturmfels (1998, The Annals of Statistics 26, 363-397). We illustrate the importance of Markov bases with three capture-recapture examples. We prove that a specific lattice basis is a Markov basis for a class of models including the original model considered by Link et al. (2010) and confirm that the specific basis used in their example with two sampling occasions is a Markov basis. The constructive nature of our proof provides an immediate method to obtain a Markov basis for any model in this class.

Mark-recapture with multiple, non-invasive marks.

SUMMARY: Non-invasive marks, including pigmentation patterns, acquired scars, and genetic markers, are often used to identify individuals in mark-recapture experiments. If animals in a population can be identified from multiple, non-invasive marks then some individuals may be counted twice in the observed data. Analyzing the observed histories without accounting for these errors will provide incorrect inference about the population dynamics. Previous approaches to this problem include modeling data from only one mark and combining estimators obtained from each mark separately assuming that they are independent. Motivated by the analysis of data from the ECOCEAN online whale shark (Rhincodon typus) catalog, we describe a Bayesian method to analyze data from multiple, non-invasive marks that is based on the latent-multinomial model of Link et al. (2010, Biometrics 66, 178-185). Further to this, we describe a simplification of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm of Link et al. (2010, Biometrics 66, 178-185) that leads to more efficient computation. We present results from the analysis of the ECOCEAN whale shark data and from simulation studies comparing our method with the previous approaches.

Smoothing population size estimates for time-stratified mark-recapture experiments using Bayesian P-splines.

Petersen-type mark-recapture experiments are often used to estimate the number of fish or other animals in a population moving along a set migration route. A first sample of individuals is captured at one location, marked, and returned to the population. A second sample is then captured farther along the route, and inferences are derived from the numbers of marked and unmarked fish found in this second sample. Data from such experiments are often stratified by time (day or week) to allow for possible changes in the capture probabilities, and previous methods of analysis fail to take advantage of the temporal relationships in the stratified data. We present a Bayesian, semiparametric method that explicitly models the expected number of fish in each stratum as a smooth function of time. Results from the analysis of historical data from the migration of young Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) along the Conne River, Newfoundland, and from a simulation study indicate that the new method provides more precise estimates of the population size and more accurate estimates of uncertainty than the currently available methods.

Understanding the impact of correlation within pair-bonds on Cormack-Jolly-Seber models.

The Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model and its extensions have been widely applied to the study of animal survival rates in open populations. The model assumes that individuals within the population of interest have independent fates. It is, however, highly unlikely that a pair of animals which have formed a long-term pairing have dissociated fates.We examine a model extension which allows animals who have formed a pair-bond to have correlated survival and recapture fates. Using the proposed extension to generate data, we conduct a simulation study exploring the impact that correlated fate data has on inference from the CJS model. We compute Monte Carlo estimates for the bias, range, and standard errors of the parameters of the CJS model for data with varying degrees of survival correlation between mates. Furthermore, we study the likelihood ratio test of sex effects within the CJS model by simulating densities of the deviance. Finally, we estimate the variance inflation factor c ^ for CJS models that incorporate sex-specific heterogeneity.Our study shows that correlated fates between mated animals may result in underestimated standard errors for parsimonious models, significantly deflated likelihood ratio test statistics, and underestimated values of c ^ for models taking sex-specific effects into account.Underestimated standard errors can result in lowered coverage of confidence intervals. Moreover, deflated test statistics will provide overly conservative test results. Finally, underestimated variance inflation factors can lead researchers to make incorrect conclusions about the level of extra-binomial variation present in their data.

Continuous covariates in mark-recapture-recovery analysis: a comparison of methods.

Time varying, individual covariates are problematic in experiments with marked animals because the covariate can typically only be observed when each animal is captured. We examine three methods to incorporate time varying, individual covariates of the survival probabilities into the analysis of data from mark-recapture-recovery experiments: deterministic imputation, a Bayesian imputation approach based on modeling the joint distribution of the covariate and the capture history, and a conditional approach considering only the events for which the associated covariate data are completely observed (the trinomial model). After describing the three methods, we compare results from their application to the analysis of the effect of body mass on the survival of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) on the Isle of Hirta, Scotland. Simulations based on these results are then used to make further comparisons. We conclude that both the trinomial model and Bayesian imputation method perform best in different situations. If the capture and recovery probabilities are all high, then the trinomial model produces precise, unbiased estimators that do not depend on any assumptions regarding the distribution of the covariate. In contrast, the Bayesian imputation method performs substantially better when capture and recovery probabilities are low, provided that the specified model of the covariate is a good approximation to the true data-generating mechanism.

Mallard resource selection trade-offs in a heterogeneous environment during autumn and winter.

Animals select resources to maximize fitness but associated costs and benefits are spatially and temporally variable. Differences in wetland management influence resource availability for ducks and mortality risk from duck hunting. The local distribution of the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) is affected by this resource heterogeneity and variable risk from hunting. Regional conservation strategies primarily focus on how waterfowl distributions are affected by food resources during the nonbreeding season. To test if Mallard resource selection was related to the abundance of resources, risks, or a combination, we studied resource selection of adult female Mallards during autumn and winter. We developed a digital spatial layer for Lake St. Clair, Ontario, Canada, that classified resources important to Mallards and assigned these resources a risk level based on ownership type and presumed disturbance from hunting. We monitored 59 individuals with GPS back-pack transmitters prior to, during, and after the hunting season and used discrete choice modeling to generate diurnal and nocturnal resource selection estimates. The model that classified available resources and presumed risk best explained Mallard resource selection strategies. Resource selection varied within and among seasons. Ducks selected for federal, state and private managed wetland complexes that provided an intermediate or relatively greater amount of refuge and foraging options than public hunting areas. Across all diel periods and seasons, there was selection for federally managed marshes and private supplemental feeding refuges that prohibited hunting. Mallard resource selection demonstrated trade-offs related to the management of mortality risk, anthropogenic disturbances, and foraging opportunities. Understanding how waterfowl respond to heterogeneous landscapes of resources and risks can inform regional conservation strategies related to waterfowl distribution during the nonbreeding season.

Exposing migratory sparrows to Plasmodium suggests costs of resistance, not necessarily of infection itself.

Migratory birds move through multiple habitats and encounter a diverse suite of parasites. This raises concern over migrants' role in transporting infectious disease between breeding and wintering grounds, and along migratory flyways. Trade-offs between flight and immune defenses could interfere with infected individuals' migratory timing and success, potentially affecting infection dynamics. However, experimental evidence that parasitic infection affects migratory preparation or timing remains scant. We hypothesized that birds encountering hematozoan parasites shortly before migration incur physical costs (reduced body condition) and behavioral costs (delayed migration), due to the infection itself and/or to the demands of mounting an immune response. We experimentally inoculated song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) with Plasmodium shortly before fall migration. We monitored infection and body composition for 2 weeks after inoculation, and used radiotelemetry to track timing of migratory departure for another 7 weeks after release. Inoculated individuals that resisted infection had lower lean mass 12 days post exposure, relative to controls and infected individuals. This suggests trade-offs between body composition and immune defenses that might reduce migration success of resistant individuals. Despite group differences in body composition prior to release, we did not detect significant differences in timing of migration departure several weeks later. Thus, malarial infection did not appear to incur detectable costs to body composition or to migratory timing, at least when exposure occurs several weeks before migration. This study is novel considering not only the costs of infection, but also the costs of resisting infection, in an experimental context.

Rates of inappropriate antiretroviral prescription among injection drug users.

BACKGROUND: Although the survival benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for the treatment of HIV infection are well established, the clinical management of HIV disease continues to present major challenges. There are particular concerns regarding access to appropriate HIV treatment among HIV-infected injection drug users (IDU). METHODS: In a prospective cohort study of HIV-infected IDU in Vancouver, Canada, we examined initial ART regimens vis-à-vis the provincial government's therapeutic guidelines at the time ART was initiated. Briefly, there have been four sets of guidelines: Era 1 (1992 to November 1995; double-drug (dual NRTIs) ART for patients with a CD4 cell count of 350 or less); Era 2 (December 1995 to May 1996; double-drug therapy for patients with a CD4+ cell count of 500 or less); Era 3 (June 1996 to June 1997; triple-drug therapy (dual NRTIs with a PI or NNRTI) for patients who had a plasma viral load of > 100,000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL; dual therapy with two NRTIs for those with a plasma viral load of 5,000 to 100,000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL); Era 4 (since July 1997; universal use of triple drug therapy as first-line treatment). RESULTS: Between May 1996 and May 2003, 431 HIV-infected individuals were enrolled into the cohort. By May 31, 2003, 291 (67.5%) individuals had initiated ART. We noted instances of inappropriate antiretroviral prescription in each guideline era, with 9 (53%) in Era 1, 3 (12%) in Era 2, 22 (28%) in Era 3, and 23 (15%) in Era 4. Of the 57 subjects who received an inappropriate ART regimen initially, 14 never received the appropriate therapy; among the remaining 43, the median time to the initiation of a guideline-appropriate ART regimen was 12 months (inter-quartile range 5-20). CONCLUSION: The present study identified measurable rates of guideline-inappropriate ART prescription for patients who were injection drug users. Rates were highest in the era of dual therapy, although high rates persisted into the triple-therapy era. As therapeutic guidelines continue to evolve, it is critical that mechanisms be put in place to ensure prescription of ART combinations for IDU that are consistent with current expert recommendations.

Emergence of drug resistance is associated with an increased risk of death among patients first starting HAART.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the emergence of drug-resistance mutations on mortality is not well characterized in antiretroviral-naïve patients first starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Patients may be able to sustain immunologic function with resistant virus, and there is limited evidence that reduced sensitivity to antiretrovirals leads to rapid disease progression or death. We undertook the present analysis to characterize the determinants of mortality in a prospective cohort study with a median of nearly 5 y of follow-up. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of the emergence of drug-resistance mutations on survival among persons initiating HAART. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Participants were antiretroviral therapy naïve at entry and initiated triple combination antiretroviral therapy between August 1, 1996, and September 30, 1999. Marginal structural modeling was used to address potential confounding between time-dependent variables in the Cox proportional hazard regression models. In this analysis resistance to any class of drug was considered as a binary time-dependent exposure to the risk of death, controlling for the effect of other time-dependent confounders. We also considered each separate class of mutation as a binary time-dependent exposure, while controlling for the presence/absence of other mutations. A total of 207 deaths were identified among 1,138 participants over the follow-up period, with an all cause mortality rate of 18.2%. Among the 679 patients with HIV-drug-resistance genotyping done before initiating HAART, HIV-drug resistance to any class was observed in 53 (7.8%) of the patients. During follow-up, HIV-drug resistance to any class was observed in 302 (26.5%) participants. Emergence of any resistance was associated with mortality (hazard ratio: 1.75 [95% confidence interval: 1.27, 2.43]). When we considered each class of resistance separately, persons who exhibited resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors had the highest risk: mortality rates were 3.02 times higher (95% confidence interval: 1.99, 4.57) for these patients than for those who did not exhibit this type of resistance. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that emergence of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors was associated with a greater risk of subsequent death than was emergence of protease inhibitor resistance. Future research is needed to identify the particular subpopulations of men and women at greatest risk and to elucidate the impact of resistance over a longer follow-up period.

Aboriginal status is a prognostic factor for mortality among antiretroviral naïve HIV-positive individuals first initiating HAART.

BACKGROUND: Although the impact of Aboriginal status on HIV incidence, HIV disease progression, and access to treatment has been investigated previously, little is known about the relationship between Aboriginal ethnicity and outcomes associated with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We undertook the present analysis to determine if Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal persons respond differently to HAART by measuring HIV plasma viral load response, CD4 cell response and time to all-cause mortality. METHODS: A population-based analysis of a cohort of antiretroviral therapy naïve HIV-positive Aboriginal men and women 18 years or older in British Columbia, Canada. Participants were antiretroviral therapy naïve, initiated triple combination therapy between August 1, 1996 and September 30, 1999. Participants had to complete a baseline questionnaire as well as have at least two follow-up CD4 and HIV plasma viral load measures. The primary endpoints were CD4 and HIV plasma viral load response and all cause mortality. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the association between Aboriginal status and CD4 cell response, HIV plasma viral load response and all-cause mortality while controlling for several confounder variables. RESULTS: A total of 622 participants met the study criteria. Aboriginal status was significantly associated with no AIDS diagnosis at baseline (p = 0.0296), having protease inhibitor in the first therapy (p = 0.0209), lower baseline HIV plasma viral load (p < 0.001), less experienced HIV physicians (P = 0.0133), history of IDU (p < 0.001), not completing high school (p = 0.0046), and an income of less than $10,000 per year (p = 0.0115). Cox proportional hazards models controlling for clinical characteristics found that Aboriginal status had an increased hazard of mortality (HR = 3.12, 95% CI: 1.77-5.48) but did not with HIV plasma viral load response (HR = 1.15, 95% CI: 0.89-1.48) or CD4 cell response (HR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.73-1.23). CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates that HIV-infected Aboriginal persons accessing HAART had similar HIV treatment response as non-Aboriginal persons but have a shorter survival. This study highlights the need for continued research on medical interventions and behavioural changes among HIV-infected Aboriginal and other marginalized populations.

Nontuberculous mycobacterial immune reconstitution syndrome in HIV-infected patients: spectrum of disease and long-term follow-up.

BACKGROUND: The long-term outcome and spectrum of disease of nontuberculous mycobacterial immune reconstitution syndrome have not been described. METHODS: We report the findings of an observational study. RESULTS: Among 51 patients (43 with Mycobacterium avium complex [MAC] infection, 2 with Mycobacterium genavense infection, and 6 whose samples were smear positive but culture negative) from 1993-2004, the median follow-up period was 29 months. The incidence of nontuberculous mycobacterial immune reconstitution syndrome was 3.5% among patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) with a baseline CD4+ cell count of <100 cells/microL. Three main clinical presentations were peripheral lymphadenitis (in 17 patients), pulmonary-thoracic disease (in 15 patients), and intra-abdominal disease (in 13 patients). Six other patients had cases that involved joint, spine, prostate, skin, soft tissue, and spontaneously resolving MAC bacteremia. Disease was usually localized. Median CD4+ cell counts before initiation of HAART and at diagnosis were 20 and 120 cells/microL, respectively, and the median reduction in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA load was 2.5 log10 copies/mL. Intra-abdominal disease was frequently preceded by disseminated MAC infection (in 62% of cases, compared with 6%-33% of cases for other groups; P=.003) and accounted for 16 (43%) of 36 hospitalizations (compared with 5%-35% for other groups; P=.008). The relapse rate was not higher among 10 patients who received no MAC therapy or received MAC therapy for < or =2 weeks. Prednisone was associated with clinical responses in 8 (89%) of 9 patients with evaluable cases. In total, 7 patients (14%) had 13 subsequent culture-positive MAC events (6 of which were cases of immune reconstitution syndrome, and 7 of which were cases of disseminated MAC infection). Ten patients (20%) died (2 of disseminated MAC infection, 5 of other opportunistic infections, and 3 of HIV-unrelated causes). CONCLUSIONS: Nontuberculous mycobacterial immune reconstitution syndrome has a wide range of clinical presentations and severity. The long-term prognosis is favorable for HAART-adherent patients. Intra-abdominal disease is associated with greater morbidity than is peripheral lymphadenitis. The role of antimycobacterial therapy is uncertain, given the self-limited course of most nonabdominal cases.

High prevalence of smoking among urban-dwelling Canadian men who have sex with men.

A small but consistent literature from the United States suggests increased risk for smoking among lesbians and men who have sex with men (MSM). Few studies have investigated smoking among MSM in other countries where different social norms and restrictions on smoking in public apply. We measured smoking behaviours in a convenience sample of urban-dwelling young Canadian MSM (median age 28 years). We compared the prevalence of smoking among MSM with that among other men in British Columbia (BC) using National Population Health Survey data to compute an age-adjusted standardized prevalence ratio (SPR). Independent predictors of smoking among MSM were identified using adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Smoking during the previous year was reported by twice as many MSM (54.5% of 354) as other men in BC (25.9%) (SPR = 1.94, 95% CI 1.48-2.59), with largest differentials observed among men under 25 years of age. In multivariable analyses, smoking among MSM was significantly associated with younger age (OR 0.94, CI 0.88-1.00 per year), greater number of depressive symptoms (OR 1.12, CI 1.06-1.19 per symptom) and Canadian Aboriginal ethnicity (OR 2.64, CI 1.05-6.60). In summary, MSM in our study were twice as likely to smoke as other men in BC; the greatest differences were observed among the youngest men. The design of effective prevention and cessation programs for MSM will require identification of the age-dependent determinants of smoking initiation, persistence, and attempts to quit.

Back to work: correlates of employment among persons receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy.

The aim of this study was to quantify the level of employment at one-year and to determine potential predictors of future employment among HIV-positive persons on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the province of British Columbia. Of the 392 individuals that were initially unemployed at baseline 63 (16.1%) found a job over the subsequent year. Factors associated with becoming employed included a baseline income over 10,000 dollars, having long-term disability or unemployment insurance as an income source, having higher CD4 cell counts, and better physical, social, and role functioning. Factors negatively associated with finding employment included having provincial assistance as an income source and having ever been an injection drug user (IDU). In multivariate analyses, not using provincial assistance as a source of income (Odds Ratio [OR] = 7.39; 95% CI: 3.26-16.7; p < 0.001) and higher MOS-SF role functioning (OR = 1.12 per 10 point increment; 95% CI: 1.03-1.21; p = 0.005) were independent predictors of becoming employed. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that while significant advances have been made in the reduction of HIV-related mortality, the majority of HIV-infected individuals on adequate treatment are still unable to be gainfully employed.