Climate Change, Landscape Fires, and Human Health: A Global Perspective.

Landscape fires are an integral component of the Earth system and a feature of prehistoric, subsistence, and industrial economies. Specific spatiotemporal patterns of landscape fire occur in different locations around the world, shaped by the interactions between environmental and human drivers of fire activity. Seven distinct types of landscape fire emerge from these interactions: remote area fires, wildfire disasters, savanna fires, Indigenous burning, prescribed burning, agricultural burning, and deforestation fires. All can have substantial impacts on human health and well-being directly and indirectly through (a) exposure to heat flux (e.g., injuries and destructive impacts), (b) emissions (e.g., smoke-related health impacts), and (c) altered ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity, amenity, water quality, and climate impacts). Minimizing the adverse effects of landscape fires on population health requires understanding how human and environmental influences on fire impacts can be modified through interventions targeted at individual, community, and regional levels.

Reassessing the alternative ecosystem states proposition in the African savanna-forest domain.

Ecologists are being challenged to predict how ecosystems will respond to climate changes. According to the Multi-Colored World (MCW) hypothesis, climate impacts may not manifest because consumers such as fire and herbivory can override the influence of climate on ecosystem state. One MCW interpretation is that climate determinism fails because alternative ecosystem states (AES) are possible at some locations in climate space. We evaluated theoretical and empirical evidence for the proposition that forest and savanna are AES in Africa. We found that maps which infer where AES zones are located were contradictory. Moreover, data from longitudinal and experimental studies provide inconclusive evidence for AES. That is, although the forest-savanna AES proposition is theoretically sound, the existing evidence is not yet convincing. We conclude by making the case that the AES proposition has such fundamental consequences for designing management actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the savanna-forest domain that it needs a more robust evidence base before it is used to prescribe management actions.

Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world.

Changes to the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire are having profound implications for ecosystems and society globally, but we have limited understanding of the extent to which fire regimes will reorganize in a warming world. While predicting regime shifts remains challenging because of complex climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks, understanding the climate niches of fire regimes provides a simple way to identify locations most at risk of regime change. Using globally available satellite datasets, we constructed 14 metrics describing the spatiotemporal dimensions of fire and then delineated Australia's pyroregions-the geographic area encapsulating a broad fire regime. Cluster analysis revealed 18 pyroregions, notably including the (1) high-intensity, infrequent fires of the temperate forests, (2) high-frequency, smaller fires of the tropical savanna, and (3) low-intensity, diurnal, human-engineered fires of the agricultural zones. To inform the risk of regime shifts, we identified locations where the climate under three CMIP6 scenarios is projected to shift (i) beyond each pyroregion's historical climate niche, and (ii) into climate space that is novel to the Australian continent. Under middle-of-the-road climate projections (SSP2-4.5), an average of 65% of the extent of the pyroregions occurred beyond their historical climate niches by 2081-2100. Further, 52% of pyroregion extents, on average, were projected to occur in climate space without present-day analogues on the Australian continent, implying high risk of shifting to states that also lack present-day counterparts. Pyroregions in tropical and hot-arid climates were most at risk of shifting into both locally and continentally novel climate space because (i) their niches are narrower than southern temperate pyroregions, and (ii) their already-hot climates lead to earlier departure from present-day climate space. Such a shift implies widespread risk of regime shifts and the emergence of no-analogue fire regimes. Our approach can be applied to other regions to assess vulnerability to rapid fire regime change.

Mechanical treatments and prescribed burning can reintroduce low-severity fire in southern Australian temperate sclerophyll forests.

The establishment of sustainable, low-intensity fire regimes is a pressing global challenge given escalating risk of wildfire driven by climate change. Globally, colonialism and industrialisation have disrupted traditional fire management, such as Indigenous patch burning and silvo-pastoral practices, leading to substantial build-up of fuel and increased fire risk. The disruption of fire regimes in southeastern Tasmania has led to dense even-aged regrowth in wet forests that are prone to crown fires, and dense Allocasuarina-dominated understoreys in dry forests that burn at high intensities. Here, we investigated the effectiveness of several fire management interventions at reducing fire risk. These interventions involved prescribed burning or mechanical understorey removal techniques. We focused on wet and dry Eucalyptus-dominated sclerophyll forests on the slopes of kunanyi/Mt. Wellington in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. We modelled potential fire behaviour in these treated wet and dry forests using fire behaviour equations based on measurements of fuel load, vegetation structure, understorey microclimate and regional meteorological data. We found that (a) fuel treatments were effective in wet and dry forests in reducing fuel load, though each targeted different layers, (b) both mechanical treatments and prescribed burning resulted in slightly drier, and hence more fire prone understorey microclimate, and (c) all treatments reduced predicted subsequent fire severity by roughly 2-4 fold. Our results highlight the importance of reducing fuel loads, even though fuel treatments make forest microclimates drier, and hence fuel more flammable. Our finding of the effectiveness of mechanical treatments in lowering fire risk enables managers to reduce fuels without the risk of uncontrolled fires and smoke pollution that is associated with prescribed burning. Understanding the economic and ecological costs and benefits of mechanic treatment compared to prescribed burning requires further research.

Global increase in wildfire risk due to climate-driven declines in fuel moisture.

There is mounting concern that global wildfire activity is shifting in frequency, intensity, and seasonality in response to climate change. Fuel moisture provides a powerful means of detecting changing fire potential. Here, we use global burned area, weather reanalysis data, and the Canadian fire weather index system to calculate fuel moisture trends for multiscale biogeographic regions across a gradient in vegetation productivity. We quantify the proportion of days in the local fire season between 1979 and 2019, where fuel moisture content is below a critical threshold indicating extreme fire potential. We then associate fuel moisture trends over that period to vegetation productivity and comment on its implications for projected anthropogenic climate change. Overall, there is a strong drying trend across realms, biomes, and the productivity gradient. Even where a wetting trend is observed, this often indicates a trend toward increasing fire activity due to an expected increase in fuel production. The detected trends across the productivity gradient lead us to conclude global fire activity will increase with anthropogenic climate change.

Australian forests, megafires and the risk of dwindling carbon stocks.

Over the Austral spring and summer of 2019/20 > 7 million ha of Eucalyptus forest and woodland, including some of Australia's most carbon dense ecosystems, were burnt on the east coast of Australia. We estimated bootstrapped mean CO2 emissions of c. 0.67 Pg, with other available estimates ranging from 0.55 to 0.85 Pg. Eucalyptus forests are renowned for their ability to resist and recover from wildfire so it would be expected that emitted CO2 will be reabsorbed. The combination of drought and frequent fires is likely reducing the capacity to recover from the fire so future Australian forests may store less carbon. Broadscale prescribed burning is a widely promoted approach to reduce uncontrolled wildfires, yet the benefits for the management of carbon stores are controversial. Prescribed burning can reduce carbon losses from subsequent wildfire, yet the "carbon costs" of it may equal or outweigh the "carbon benefits" in reduced wildfire emissions. Likewise, mechanical thinning of vegetation to reduce fuel loads also carries heavy carbon costs with uncertain carbon benefits. Research involving empirical measurements, modelling and a mix of large-scale management intervention is urgently required to determine what interventions can maximise carbon storage in the face of climate change-driven fires.

Combating ecosystem collapse from the tropics to the Antarctic.

Globally, collapse of ecosystems-potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function-imperils biodiversity, human health and well-being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2 , from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic 'presses' and/or acute 'pulses', drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5-17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles-abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three-step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.

Using a natural experiment to foresee the fate of boreal carbon stores.

Dieleman et al. (Global Change Biology, 2020) undertook a meticulously designed and naturally executed experiment that revealed substantial legacy effects of past logging and fire disturbance on aboveground and belowground carbon losses following major wildfires that occurred in 2015 in southern boreal forests in central Saskatchewan, Canada. Such natural experiments are a critical element in Earth System science because they frame questions, refine hypotheses and generate empirical data essential for predicting the fate of global carbon stores in an increasingly fire prone world. This article is a Commentary on Dieleman et al., 26, 6062-6079.

Population collapse and retreat to fire refugia of the Tasmanian endemic conifer Athrotaxis selaginoides following the transition from Aboriginal to European fire management.

Untangling the nuanced relationships between landscape, fire disturbance, human agency, and climate is key to understanding rapid population declines of fire-sensitive plant species. Using multiple lines of evidence across temporal and spatial scales (vegetation survey, stand structure analysis, dendrochronology, and fire history reconstruction), we document landscape-scale population collapse of the long-lived, endemic Tasmanian conifer Athrotaxis selaginoides in remote montane catchments in southern Tasmania. We contextualized the findings of this field-based study with a Tasmanian-wide geospatial analysis of fire-killed and unburned populations of the species. Population declines followed European colonization commencing in 1802 ad that disrupted Aboriginal landscape burning. Prior to European colonization, fire events were infrequent but frequency sharply increased afterwards. Dendrochronological analysis revealed that reconstructed fire years were associated with abnormally warm/dry conditions, with below-average streamflow, and were strongly teleconnected to the Southern Annular Mode. The multiple fires that followed European colonization caused near total mortality of A. selaginoides and resulted in pronounced floristic, structural vegetation, and fuel load changes. Burned stands have very few regenerating A. selaginoides juveniles yet tree-establishment reconstruction of fire-killed adults exhibited persistent recruitment in the period prior to European colonization. Collectively, our findings indicate that this fire-sensitive Gondwanan conifer was able to persist with burning by Aboriginal Tasmanians, despite episodic widespread forest fires. By contrast, European burning led to the restriction of A. selaginoides to prime topographic fire refugia. Increasingly, frequent fires caused by regional dry and warming trends and increased ignitions by humans and lightning are breaching fire refugia; hence, the survival Tasmanian Gondwanan species demands sustained and targeted fire management.

Can smartphone data identify the local environmental drivers of respiratory disease?

Asthma and allergic rhinitis (or hay fever) are ubiquitous, chronic health conditions that seasonally affect a sizeable proportion of the population. Both are commonly triggered or exacerbated by environmental conditions including aeroallergens, air quality and weather. Smartphone technology offers new opportunities to identify environmental drivers by allowing large-scale, real-time collection of day-to-day symptoms. As yet, however, few studies have explored the potential of this technology to provide useful epidemiological data on environment-symptom relationships. Here, we use data from the smartphone app 'AirRater' to examine relationships between asthma and allergic rhinitis symptoms and weather, air quality and pollen loads in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. We draw on symptom data logged by app users over a three-year period and use time-series analysis to assess the relationship between symptoms and environmental co-variates. Symptoms are associated with particulate matter (IRR 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04-1.08), maximum temperature (IRR 1.28, 95% CI: 1.13-1.44) and pollen taxa including Betula (IRR 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.07), Cupressaceae (IRR 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04), Myrtaceae (IRR 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10) and Poaceae (IRR 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.09). The importance of these pollen taxa varies seasonally and more taxa are associated with allergic rhinitis (eye/nose) than asthma (lung) symptoms. Our results are congruent with established epidemiological evidence, while providing important local insights including the association between symptoms and Myrtaceae pollen. We conclude that smartphone-sourced data can be a useful tool in environmental epidemiology.

Turnover of southern cypresses in the post-Gondwanan world: extinction, transoceanic dispersal, adaptation and rediversification.

Cupressaceae subfamily Callitroideae has been an important exemplar for vicariance biogeography, but its history is more than just disjunctions resulting from continental drift. We combine fossil and molecular data to better assess its extinction and, sometimes, rediversification after past global change. Key fossils were reassessed and their phylogenetic placement for calibration was determined using trait mapping and Bayes Factors. Five vicariance hypotheses were tested by comparing molecular divergence times with the timing of tectonic rifting. The role of adaptation to fire (serotiny) in its spread across a drying Australia was tested for Callitris. Our findings suggest that three transoceanic disjunctions within the Callitroideae probably arose from long-distance dispersal. A signature of extinction, centred on the end-Eocene global climatic chilling and drying, is evident in lineages-through-time plots and in the fossil record. Callitris, the most diverse extant callitroid genus, suffered extinctions but surviving lineages adapted and re-radiated into dry, fire-prone biomes that expanded in the Neogene. Serotiny, a key adaptation to fire, likely evolved in Callitris coincident with the biome shift. Both extinction and adaptive shifts have probably played major roles in this chronicle of turnover and renewal, but better understanding of biogeographical history requires improved taxonomy of fossils.

Biomass consumption by surface fires across Earth's most fire prone continent.

Landscape fire is a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. Predicting biomass consumption by fire at large spatial scales is essential to understanding carbon dynamics and hence how fire management can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase ecosystem carbon storage. An Australia-wide field-based survey (at 113 locations) across large-scale macroecological gradients (climate, productivity and fire regimes) enabled estimation of how biomass combustion by surface fire directly affects continental-scale carbon budgets. In terms of biomass consumption, we found clear trade-offs between the frequency and severity of surface fires. In temperate southern Australia, characterised by less frequent and more severe fires, biomass consumed per fire was typically very high. In contrast, surface fires in the tropical savannas of northern Australia were very frequent but less severe, with much lower consumption of biomass per fire (about a quarter of that in the far south). When biomass consumption was expressed on an annual basis, biomass consumed was far greater in the tropical savannas (>20 times that of the far south). This trade-off is also apparent in the ratio of annual carbon consumption to net primary production (NPP). Across Australia's naturally vegetated land area, annual carbon consumption by surface fire is equivalent to about 11% of NPP, with a sharp contrast between temperate southern Australia (6%) and tropical northern Australia (46%). Our results emphasise that fire management to reduce greenhouse gas emissions should focus on fire prone tropical savanna landscapes, where the vast bulk of biomass consumption occurs globally. In these landscapes, grass biomass is a key driver of frequency, intensity and combustion completeness of surface fires, and management actions that increase grass biomass are likely to lead to increases in greenhouse gas emissions from savanna fires.

Transient hybridization, not homoploid hybrid speciation, between ancient and deeply divergent conifers.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Homoploid hybrid speciation is receiving growing attention due the increasing recognition of its role in speciation. We investigate if individuals intermediate in morphology between the two species of the conifer genus Athrotaxis represent a homoploid hybrid species, A. laxifolia, or are spontaneous F1 hybrids. METHODS: A total of 1055 individuals of Athrotaxis cupressoides and A. selaginoides, morphologically intermediate individuals, and two putative hybrid swarms were sampled across the range of the genus and genotyped with 13 microsatellites. We used simulations to test the power of our data to identify the pure species, F1s, F2s, and backcross generations. KEY RESULTS: We found that Athrotaxis cupressoides and A. selaginoides are likely the most divergent congeneric conifers known, but the intermediates are F1 hybrids, sharing one allele each from A. cupressoides and A. selaginoides at six loci with completely species specific alleles. The hybrid swarms contain wide genetic variation with stronger affinities to the locally dominant species, A. selaginoides and A. selaginoides backcrosses outnumbering A. cupressoides backcrosses. In addition, we observed evidence for isolated advanced generation backcrosses within the range of the pure species. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that, even though they can be large and long-lived, Athrotaxis hybrid swarms are on a trajectory of decline and will eventually be reabsorbed by the parental species. However, this process may take millennia and fossil evidence suggests that such events have occurred repeatedly since the early Quaternary. Given this timeline, our study highlights the many obstacles to homoploid hybrid speciation.

Regional and seasonal variation in airborne grass pollen levels between cities of Australia and New Zealand.

Although grass pollen is widely regarded as the major outdoor aeroallergen source in Australia and New Zealand (NZ), no assemblage of airborne pollen data for the region has been previously compiled. Grass pollen count data collected at 14 urban sites in Australia and NZ over periods ranging from 1 to 17 years were acquired, assembled and compared, revealing considerable spatiotemporal variability. Although direct comparison between these data is problematic due to methodological differences between monitoring sites, the following patterns are apparent. Grass pollen seasons tended to have more than one peak from tropics to latitudes of 37°S and single peaks at sites south of this latitude. A longer grass pollen season was therefore found at sites below 37°S, driven by later seasonal end dates for grass growth and flowering. Daily pollen counts increased with latitude; subtropical regions had seasons of both high intensity and long duration. At higher latitude sites, the single springtime grass pollen peak is potentially due to a cooler growing season and a predominance of pollen from C3 grasses. The multiple peaks at lower latitude sites may be due to a warmer season and the predominance of pollen from C4 grasses. Prevalence and duration of seasonal allergies may reflect the differing pollen seasons across Australia and NZ. It must be emphasized that these findings are tentative due to limitations in the available data, reinforcing the need to implement standardized pollen-monitoring methods across Australasia. Furthermore, spatiotemporal differences in grass pollen counts indicate that local, current, standardized pollen monitoring would assist with the management of pollen allergen exposure for patients at risk of allergic rhinitis and asthma.

Effects of high-severity fire drove the population collapse of the subalpine Tasmanian endemic conifer Athrotaxis cupressoides.

Athrotaxis cupressoides is a slow-growing and long-lived conifer that occurs in the subalpine temperate forests of Tasmania, a continental island to the south of Australia. In 1960-1961, human-ignited wildfires occurred during an extremely dry summer that killed many A. cupressoides stands on the high plateau in the center of Tasmania. That fire year, coupled with subsequent regeneration failure, caused a loss of ca. 10% of the geographic extent of this endemic Tasmanian forest type. To provide historical context for these large-scale fire events, we (i) collected dendroecological, floristic, and structural data, (ii) documented the postfire survival and regeneration of A. cupressoides and co-occurring understory species, and (iii) assessed postfire understory plant community composition and flammability. We found that fire frequency did not vary following the arrival of European settlers, and that A. cupressoides populations were able to persist under a regime of low-to-mid severity fires prior to the 1960 fires. Our data indicate that the 1960 fires were (i) of greater severity than previous fires, (ii) herbivory by native marsupials may limit seedling survival in both burned and unburned A. cupressoides stands, and (iii) the loss of A. cupressoides populations is largely irreversible given the relatively high fuel loads of postfire vegetation communities that are dominated by resprouting shrubs. We suggest that the feedback between regeneration failure and increased flammability will be further exacerbated by a warmer and drier climate causing A. cupressoides to contract to the most fire-proof landscape settings.

Big eucalypts grow more slowly in a warm climate: evidence of an interaction between tree size and temperature.

Large trees are critical components of forest ecosystems, but are declining in many forests worldwide. We predicted that growth of large trees is more vulnerable than that of small trees to high temperatures, because respiration and tissue maintenance costs increase with temperature more rapidly than does photosynthesis and these costs may be disproportionately greater in large trees. Using 5 00 000 measurements of eucalypt growth across temperate Australia, we found that high temperatures do appear to impose a larger growth penalty on large trees than on small ones. Average stem diameter growth rates at 21 °C compared with 11 °C mean annual temperature were 57% lower for large trees (58 cm stem diameter), but only 29% lower for small trees (18 cm diameter). While our results are consistent with an impaired carbon budget for large trees at warmer sites, we cannot discount causes such as hydraulic stress. We conclude that slower growth rates will impede recovery from extreme events, exacerbating the effects of higher temperatures, increased drought stress and more frequent fire on the tall eucalypt forests of southern Australia.

Abrupt fire regime change may cause landscape-wide loss of mature obligate seeder forests.

Obligate seeder trees requiring high-severity fires to regenerate may be vulnerable to population collapse if fire frequency increases abruptly. We tested this proposition using a long-lived obligate seeding forest tree, alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), in the Australian Alps. Since 2002, 85% of the Alps bioregion has been burnt by several very large fires, tracking the regional trend of more frequent extreme fire weather. High-severity fires removed 25% of aboveground tree biomass, and switched fuel arrays from low loads of herbaceous and litter fuels to high loads of flammable shrubs and juvenile trees, priming regenerating stands for subsequent fires. Single high-severity fires caused adult mortality and triggered mass regeneration, but a second fire in quick succession killed 97% of the regenerating alpine ash. Our results indicate that without interventions to reduce fire severity, interactions between flammability of regenerating stands and increased extreme fire weather will eliminate much of the remaining mature alpine ash forest.