Developing prediction models for short-term mortality after surgery for colorectal cancer using a Danish national quality assurance database.

PURPOSE: The majority of colorectal cancer surgeries are performed electively, and treatment is often decided at the multidisciplinary team conference. Although the average 30-day mortality rate is low, there is substantial population heterogeneity from young, healthy patients to frail, elderly patients. The individual risk of surgery can vary widely, and tailoring treatment for colorectal cancer may lead to better outcomes. This requires prediction of risk that is accurate and available prior to surgery. METHODS: Data from the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group database was transformed into the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model. Models were developed to predict the risk of mortality within 30, 90, and 180 days after colorectal cancer surgery using only covariates decided at the multidisciplinary team conference. Several machine-learning models were trained, but due to superior performance, a Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator logistic regression was used for the final model. Performance was assessed with discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic and precision recall curve) and calibration measures (calibration in large, intercept, slope, and Brier score). RESULTS: The cohort contained 65,612 patients operated for colorectal cancer in the period from 2001 to 2019 in Denmark. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic for 30-, 90-, and 180-day mortality after colorectal cancer surgery of 0.871 (95% CI: 0.86-0.882), 0.874 (95% CI: 0.864-0.882), and 0.876 (95% CI: 0.867-0.883) and calibration in large of 1.01, 0.98, and 1.01, respectively. CONCLUSION: The postoperative short-term mortality prediction model showed excellent discrimination and calibration using only preoperatively known predictors.

CGRP-induced migraine-like headache in persistent post-traumatic headache attributed to mild traumatic brain injury.

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain whether intravenous infusion of calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) can induce migraine-like headache in people with persistent post-traumatic headache attributed to mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) and no pre-existing migraine. METHODS: A non-randomized, single-arm, open-label study at a single site in Denmark. Eligible participants were aged 18 to 65 years and had a known history of persistent post-traumatic headache attributed to mild TBI for ≥ 12 months. All participants received continuous intravenous infusion of CGRP (1.5 µg/min) over 20 min. A headache diary was used to collect outcome data until 12 h after the start of CGRP infusion. The primary end point was the incidence of migraine-like headache during 12-hour observational period. RESULTS: A total of 60 participants completed the study protocol and provided data for the analysis of the primary end point. The median age was 32.5 (IQR, 25.5-43.0) years; 43 participants (72%) were female. Following CGRP infusion, 43 (72%) of 60 participants developed migraine-like headache during the 12-hour observational period. The median time to peak headache intensity was 40 min (IQR, 20-60), and the median peak headache intensity was 6 (IQR, 5-8) on the 11-point numeric rating scale. CONCLUSION: Intravenous infusion of CGRP is a potent inducer of migraine-like headache in people with persistent post-traumatic headache attributed to mild TBI. This observation underscores the importance of CGRP in the genesis of migraine-like headache that is often experienced by individuals who are afflicted by persistent post-traumatic headache. Further research is warranted to ascertain whether other signaling molecules also contribute to the disease mechanisms underlying post-traumatic headache.