The impact of COVID-19 on organ donation and transplantation in the UK: lessons learned from the first year of the pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on UK deceased organ donation and transplantation activity. We used national audit data from NHS Blood and Transplant to explore in detail the effects of the pandemic in comparison with 12 months pre-pandemic, and to consider the impact of the mitigating strategies and challenges placed on ICU by 'waves' of patients with COVID-19. Between 11 March 2020 and 10 March 2021, referrals to NHS Blood and Transplant of potential organ donors were initially inversely related to the number of people with COVID-19 undergoing mechanical ventilation in intensive care (incident rate ratio (95%CI) per 1000 patients 0.93 (0.88-0.99), p = 0.018), although this pattern reversed during the second wave (additional incident rate ratio (95%CI) 1.12 (1.05-1.19), p < 0.001). Adjusted numbers of donors (incident rate ratio (95%CI) 0.71 (0.61-0.81), p < 0.001) and organs retrieved (incident rate ratio (95%CI) 0.89 (0.82-0.97), p = 0.007) were inversely dependent on COVID-19 workload, though weekly numbers of transplants were unrelated (incident rate ratio (95%CI) 0.95 (0.86-1.04), p = 0.235). Non-COVID-19 mortality fell from 15,007 to 14,087 during the first wave (rate ratio (95%CI) 0.94 (0.92-0.96), p < 0.001) but climbed from 18,907 to 19,372 during the second wave (rate ratio (95%CI) 1.02 (1.00-1.05), p = 0.018). There were fewer in-hospital deaths from cardiac arrest and intracranial catastrophes throughout (rate ratio (95%CI) 0.83 (0.81-0.86), p < 0.001 and rate ratio (95%CI) 0.88 (0.85-0.91), p < 0.001, respectively). There were overall fewer eligible donors (n = 4282) when compared with pre-pandemic levels (n = 6038); OR (95%CI) 0.58 (0.51-0.66), p < 0.001. The total number of donations during the year fell from 1620 to 1140 (rate ratio (95%CI) 0.70 (0.65-0.76), p < 0.001), but the proportion of eligible donors who proceeded to donation (27%) was unchanged (OR (95%CI) 0.99 (0.91-1.08), p = 0.821). The reduction in donations and transplantation during the pandemic was multifactorial, but these data highlight the impact in the UK of a fall in eligible donors and an inverse relationship of referrals to COVID-19 workload. Despite the challenges faced, the foundations underpinning the UK deceased organ donation programme remained strong.

Practice guidelines: a safe legal lifeline?

To what degree should compliance with clinical practice guidelines protect you from a malpractice charge? And will physicians who are offered such protection practice less defensively, and thus less expensively? As guidelines proliferate, answers are emerging.

The role of fertility and population in economic growth: empirical research from aggregate cross-national data.

PIP: At current growth rates, world population will double from 5 billion in 1987 to 10 billion by 2030. This doubling time is extremely short compared to the 1700 years spanned over which world population doubled to 600 million from its 1 A.D. size of 300 million. The rate of population growth has fallen since its 1970 peak, but the momentum of growth and the absolute increase in population numbers remain of staggering population. Two recently improved sets of cross-country panel data from Summers and Heston, and UN World Population Prospects are combined in a re-examination of the effects of population growth and fertility on economic growth. A 107-country panel data set is employed for 1960-1985. Review indicates that high birth rates appear to reduce economic growth through investment effects and possibly capital dilution, but classic resource dilution was not observed. Birth rate declines have a strong medium-term positive impact on per capita income growth through labor supply or dependency effects.^ieng