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Introduction: Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) causes autoimmune-mediated inflammation of small blood vessels in multiple organs, including the kidneys. The ability to accurately predict kidney outcomes would enable a more personalized therapeutic approach. Methods: We used our national renal biopsy registry to validate the ability of ANCA Renal Risk Score (ARRS) to predict end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) for individual patients. This score uses histopathological and biochemical data to stratify patients as high, medium, or low risk for developing ESKD. Results: A total of 288 patients were eligible for inclusion in the study (low risk n = 144, medium risk n = 122, high risk n = 12). Using adjusted Cox proportional hazard models with the low-risk group as reference, we show that outcome differs between the categories: high-risk hazard ratio (HR) 16.69 (2.91-95.81, P = 0.002); medium risk HR 4.14 (1.07-16.01, P = 0.039). Incremental multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models demonstrated that adding ARRS to a model adjusted for multiple clinical parameters enhanced predictive discrimination (basic model C-statistic 0.864 [95% CI 0.813-0.914], basic model plus ARRS C-statistic 0.877 [95% CI 0.823-0.931]; P <0.01). Conclusion: The ARRS better discriminates risk of ESKD in AAV and offers clinicians more prognostic information than the use of standard biochemical and clinical measures alone. This is the first time the ARRS has been validated in a national cohort. The proportion of patients with high-risk scores is lower in our cohort compared to others and should be noted as a limitation of this study.
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BACKGROUND: Small studies suggest an association between ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) incidence and rurality, seasonality and socioeconomic deprivation. We examined the incidence of kidney biopsy-proven AAV and its relationship with these factors in the adult Scottish population. METHODS: Using the Scottish Renal Biopsy Registry, all adult native kidney biopsies performed between 2014 and 2018 with a diagnosis of granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA) or microscopic polyangiitis (MPA) were identified. The Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification was used for rurality analysis. Seasons were defined as autumn (September-November), winter (December-February), spring (March-May) and summer (June-August). Patients were separated into quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation using the validated Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation and incidence standardised to age. Estimated glomerular filtration rate and urine protein:creatinine ratio at time of biopsy were used to assess disease severity. RESULTS: 339 cases of renal AAV were identified, of which 62% had MPA and 38% had GPA diagnosis. AAV incidence was 15.1 per million population per year (pmp/year). Mean age was 66 years and 54% were female. Incidence of GPA (but not MPA) was positively associated with rurality (5.2, 8.4 and 9.1 pmp/year in 'urban', 'accessible remote' and 'rural remote' areas, respectively; p=0.04). The age-standardised incidence ratio was similar across all quintiles of deprivation (p=ns). CONCLUSIONS: Seasonality and disease severity did not vary across AAV study groups. In this complete national cohort study, we observed a positive association between kidney biopsy-proven GPA and rurality.