A stochastic hierarchical model for low grade glioma evolution.

A stochastic hierarchical model for the evolution of low grade gliomas is proposed. Starting with the description of cell motion using a piecewise diffusion Markov process (PDifMP) at the cellular level, we derive an equation for the density of the transition probability of this Markov process based on the generalised Fokker-Planck equation. Then, a macroscopic model is derived via parabolic limit and Hilbert expansions in the moment equations. After setting up the model, we perform several numerical tests to study the role of the local characteristics and the extended generator of the PDifMP in the process of tumour progression. The main aim focuses on understanding how the variations of the jump rate function of this process at the microscopic scale and the diffusion coefficient at the macroscopic scale are related to the diffusive behaviour of the glioma cells and to the onset of malignancy, i.e., the transition from low-grade to high-grade gliomas.

An exact stochastic hybrid model of excitable membranes including spatio-temporal evolution.

In this paper, we present a mathematical description for excitable biological membranes, in particular neuronal membranes. We aim to model the (spatio-) temporal dynamics, e.g., the travelling of an action potential along the axon, subject to noise, such as ion channel noise. Using the framework of Piecewise Deterministic Processes (PDPs) we provide an exact mathematical description-in contrast to pseudo-exact algorithms considered in the literature-of the stochastic process one obtains coupling a continuous time Markov chain model with a deterministic dynamic model of a macroscopic variable, that is coupling Markovian channel dynamics to the time-evolution of the transmembrane potential. We extend the existing framework of PDPs in finite dimensional state space to include infinite-dimensional evolution equations and thus obtain a stochastic hybrid model suitable for modelling spatio-temporal dynamics. We derive analytic results for the infinite-dimensional process, such as existence, the strong Markov property and its extended generator. Further, we exemplify modelling of spatially extended excitable membranes with PDPs by a stochastic hybrid version of the Hodgkin-Huxley model of the squid giant axon. Finally, we discuss the advantages of the PDP formulation in view of analytical and numerical investigations as well as the application of PDPs to structurally more complex models of excitable membranes.

Spectral density-based and measure-preserving ABC for partially observed diffusion processes. An illustration on Hamiltonian SDEs.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become one of the major tools of likelihood-free statistical inference in complex mathematical models. Simultaneously, stochastic differential equations (SDEs) have developed to an established tool for modelling time-dependent, real-world phenomena with underlying random effects. When applying ABC to stochastic models, two major difficulties arise: First, the derivation of effective summary statistics and proper distances is particularly challenging, since simulations from the stochastic process under the same parameter configuration result in different trajectories. Second, exact simulation schemes to generate trajectories from the stochastic model are rarely available, requiring the derivation of suitable numerical methods for the synthetic data generation. To obtain summaries that are less sensitive to the intrinsic stochasticity of the model, we propose to build up the statistical method (e.g. the choice of the summary statistics) on the underlying structural properties of the model. Here, we focus on the existence of an invariant measure and we map the data to their estimated invariant density and invariant spectral density. Then, to ensure that these model properties are kept in the synthetic data generation, we adopt measure-preserving numerical splitting schemes. The derived property-based and measure-preserving ABC method is illustrated on the broad class of partially observed Hamiltonian type SDEs, both with simulated data and with real electroencephalography data. The derived summaries are particularly robust to the model simulation, and this fact, combined with the proposed reliable numerical scheme, yields accurate ABC inference. In contrast, the inference returned using standard numerical methods (Euler-Maruyama discretisation) fails. The proposed ingredients can be incorporated into any type of ABC algorithm and directly applied to all SDEs that are characterised by an invariant distribution and for which a measure-preserving numerical method can be derived.

A Stochastic Version of the Jansen and Rit Neural Mass Model: Analysis and Numerics.

Neural mass models provide a useful framework for modelling mesoscopic neural dynamics and in this article we consider the Jansen and Rit neural mass model (JR-NMM). We formulate a stochastic version of it which arises by incorporating random input and has the structure of a damped stochastic Hamiltonian system with nonlinear displacement. We then investigate path properties and moment bounds of the model. Moreover, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the model and provide long-time stability results by establishing the geometric ergodicity of the system, which means that the system-independently of the initial values-always converges to an invariant measure. In the last part, we simulate the stochastic JR-NMM by an efficient numerical scheme based on a splitting approach which preserves the qualitative behaviour of the solution.

Laws of large numbers and langevin approximations for stochastic neural field equations.

In this study, we consider limit theorems for microscopic stochastic models of neural fields. We show that the Wilson-Cowan equation can be obtained as the limit in uniform convergence on compacts in probability for a sequence of microscopic models when the number of neuron populations distributed in space and the number of neurons per population tend to infinity. This result also allows to obtain limits for qualitatively different stochastic convergence concepts, e.g., convergence in the mean. Further, we present a central limit theorem for the martingale part of the microscopic models which, suitably re-scaled, converges to a centred Gaussian process with independent increments. These two results provide the basis for presenting the neural field Langevin equation, a stochastic differential equation taking values in a Hilbert space, which is the infinite-dimensional analogue of the chemical Langevin equation in the present setting. On a technical level, we apply recently developed law of large numbers and central limit theorems for piecewise deterministic processes taking values in Hilbert spaces to a master equation formulation of stochastic neuronal network models. These theorems are valid for processes taking values in Hilbert spaces, and by this are able to incorporate spatial structures of the underlying model.Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 60F05, 60J25, 60J75, 92C20.