Trends and Projections in National United States Health Care Spending for Gastrointestinal Malignancies (1996-2030).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The management of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers is associated with high health care spending. We estimated trends in United States (US) health care spending for patients with GI cancers between 1996 and 2016 and developed projections to 2030. METHODS: We used economic data, adjusted for inflation, developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations for the Disease Expenditure Project. Corresponding US age-adjusted prevalence of GI cancers was estimated from the Global Burden of Diseases Study. Prevalence-adjusted temporal trends in the US health care spending in patients with GI cancers, stratified by cancer site, age, and setting of care, were estimated using joinpoint regression, expressed as annual percentage change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to project spending to 2030. RESULTS: In 2016, total spending for GI cancers was primarily attributable to colorectal ($10.50 billion; 95% CI, $9.35-$11.70 billion) and pancreatic cancer ($2.55 billion; 95% CI, $2.23-$2.82 billion), and primarily for inpatient care (64.5%). Despite increased total spending, more recent per-patient spending for pancreatic (APC 2008-2016, -1.4%; 95% CI, -2.2% to -0.7%), gallbladder/biliary tract (APC 2010-2016, -4.3%; 95% CI, -4.8% to -3.8%), and gastric cancer (APC 2011-2016, -4.4%; 95% CI, -5.8% to -2.9%) decreased. Increasing price and intensity of care provision was the largest driver of higher expenditures. By 2030, it is projected more than $21 billion annually will be spent on GI cancer management. CONCLUSIONS: Total spending for GI cancers in the US is substantial and projected to increase. Expenditures are primarily driven by inpatient care for colorectal cancer, although per-capita spending trends differ by GI cancer type.

Frailty is associated with increased risk of cirrhosis disease progression and death.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Liver Frailty Index (LFI) is a well-studied tool that evaluates frailty in patients with cirrhosis. Consisting of grip strength, chair stands, and balance testing, the LFI has been associated with increased mortality in patients awaiting liver transplant. We aimed to extend our understanding of frailty in cirrhosis by exploring the relationship between the LFI and the risk of (1) cirrhosis progression, (2) mortality, and (3) unplanned hospitalizations, in both compensated and decompensated disease. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Adult patients with cirrhosis from four centers in North America and one in India were included. Frailty was measured at baseline using the LFI and categorized as robust (LFI < 3.2), prefrail (LFI 3.2-4.5), and frail (LFI > 4.5). Progression of cirrhosis was defined by an increase in clinical stage, ranging from 1 to 5, from baseline using the D'Amico classification. Factors associated with progression, mortality, and hospitalizations were evaluated using multivariate regression models, with transplant as a competing risk. In total, 822 patients with cirrhosis were included. Average Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 15.5 ± 6.0. In patients with compensated cirrhosis, being frail versus robust was associated with increased risk of progression to the next cirrhosis stage or to death (HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.14-5.29) and with an increased risk of unplanned hospitalizations (2.32; 95% CI, 1.13-4.79), after adjusting for age, sex, and MELD score. Similar HRs were observed in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty was an independent predictor of cirrhosis progression or death and unplanned hospitalization across patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. Future studies are needed to evaluate the possibility of slowing cirrhosis disease progression by reversing or preventing frailty.

Nodules Identified on Surveillance Ultrasound for HCC: CEUS or MRI as the Initial Test?

OBJECTIVES: Following positive surveillance ultrasound (US), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is recommended for further characterization. We propose contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) shows equivalent efficacy. METHODS: This prospective institutional review board approved study recruited 195 consecutive at-risk patients with a positive surveillance US. All had CEUS and MRI. Biopsy (n = 44) and follow-up are gold standard. MRI and CEUS results are classified according to liver imaging reporting and data system (LI-RADS) and patient outcome. RESULTS: As an US-based modality, CEUS is superior in confirming findings from surveillance US, correlation in 189/195 (97%) on CEUS compared to 153/195 (79%) on MRI. Within these negative MRI examinations, there are 2 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 1 cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) diagnosed on CEUS and proven by biopsy. From 195 patients, there are 71 malignant diagnoses from all sources, including 58 LR-5 (45 on MRI and 54 on CEUS) and 13 others, including HCC outside of LR-5 category, and LR-M with biopsy proven iCCA (3 on MRI and 6 on CEUS). CEUS and MRI show concordant results in the majority of patients (146/195, 75%), including 57/146 malignant and 89/146 benign diagnoses. There are 41/57 concordant LR-5 and 6/57 concordant LR-M. When CEUS and MRI are discordant, CEUS upgraded 20 (10 biopsy-proven) from MRI LR-3/4 to CEUS LR-5 or LR-M by showing washout (WO) that MRI failed to show. Additionally, CEUS characterized time and intensity of WO and diagnosed 13/20 LR-5 by showing late and weak WO and 7 LR-M by showing fast and marked WO. CEUS is 81% sensitive and 92% specific in diagnosing malignancy. MRI is 64% sensitive and 93% specific. CONCLUSIONS: CEUS performance is at least equivalent if not superior to MRI for initial evaluation of lesions from surveillance US.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Hospitalizations for Alcoholic Hepatitis or Cirrhosis in Alberta, Canada.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic lockdown and restrictions had significant disruption to patient care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on hospitalizations of patients with alcoholic and nonalcoholic cirrhosis as well as alcoholic hepatitis (AH) in Alberta, Canada. METHODS: We used validated International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 and ICD-10) coding algorithms to identify liver-related hospitalizations for nonalcoholic cirrhosis, alcoholic cirrhosis, and AH in the province of Alberta between March 2018 and September 2020. We used the provincial inpatient discharge and laboratory databases to identify our cohorts. We used elevated alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase, elevated international normalized ratio, or bilirubin to identify AH patients. We compared COVID-19 restrictions (April-September 2020) with prior study periods. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the temporal trends among the 3 cohorts. RESULTS: We identified 2916 hospitalizations for nonalcoholic cirrhosis, 2318 hospitalizations for alcoholic cirrhosis, and 1408 AH hospitalizations during our study time. The in-hospital mortality rate was stable in relation to the pandemic for alcoholic cirrhosis and AH. However, nonalcoholic cirrhosis patients had lower in-hospital mortality rate after March 2020 (8.5% vs 11.5%; P = .033). There was a significant increase in average monthly admissions in the AH cohort (22.1/10,000 admissions during the pandemic vs 11.6/10,000 admissions before March 2020; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Before and during COVID-19 monthly admission rates were stable for nonalcoholic and alcoholic cirrhosis; however, there was a significant increase in AH admissions. Because alcohol sales surged during the pandemic, future impact on alcoholic liver disease could be detrimental.

The effectiveness of a multifaceted, group-facilitated audit and feedback intervention to increase tranexamic acid use during total joint arthroplasty.

PURPOSE: Intraoperative tranexamic acid (TXA) is used to reduce blood loss and the need for transfusions following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Despite evidence in literature and local practice protocols supporting TXA as a part of standard of care for joint arthroplasty, TXA administration is underutilized. We aimed to use group-facilitated audit and feedback as the foundation of a knowledge translation strategy to increase TXA use for THA and TKA procedures. METHODS: Anesthesiologists consented to receive two data reports summarizing their individual rates of TXA use and postoperative blood transfusions compared with site peers. Variables collected included patient demographics, TXA usage, and the frequency and volume of red blood cell transfusions administered in the 72-hr postoperative period. The facilitated feedback session discussed report findings and focused on factors contributing to local practice patterns and opportunities for change. RESULTS: Tranexamic acid use increased for THA procedures at the intervention site from 66.6 to 74.4% (absolute change, 7.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4 to 13.3). Likewise, TXA use for TKA procedures increased from 62.4 to 82.3% (absolute change, 19.9%; 95% CI 15.0 to 25.0). CONCLUSIONS: Physicians and their teams were able to review their practice data on TXA utilization, reflect on differences compared with evidence-based guidelines, discuss findings with peers, and identify opportunities for improvement. The intervention increased the use of TXA for both TKA and THA and shifted the dosage to better align with evidence-based practice guidelines.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF : L'acide tranexamique (ATX) peropératoire est utilisé pour réduire les pertes sanguines et les besoins transfusionnels après les arthroplasties totales de la hanche (ATH) et du genou (ATG). Malgré les données probantes et les protocoles de pratique locaux appuyant l'utilisation d'ATX dans le cadre de la norme de soins en cas d'arthroplastie, l'administration de cet agent est sous-utilisée. Notre objectif était d'utiliser l'audit et la rétroaction facilités par le groupe comme base d'une stratégie d'application des connaissances afin d'accroître l'utilisation de l'ATX lors des ATH et ATG. MéTHODE: Les anesthésiologistes ont consenti à recevoir deux rapports de données résumant leurs taux individuels d'utilisation d'ATX et de transfusions sanguines postopératoires par rapport à leurs pairs au sein du même établissement. Les variables recueillies comprenaient les données démographiques des patients, l'utilisation d'ATX et la fréquence et le volume des transfusions d'érythrocytes administrées au cours d'une période postopératoire de 72 heures. La séance de rétroaction facilitée a porté sur les conclusions du rapport et s'est concentrée sur les facteurs contribuant aux habitudes de pratique locales et aux possibilités de changement. RéSULTATS: L'utilisation d'acide tranexamique a augmenté pour les procédures d'ATH au site d'intervention, passant de 66,6 % à 74,4 % (variation absolue, 7,9 %; intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95 %, 2,4 à 13,3). De même, l'utilisation d'ATX pour les procédures d'ATG est passée de 62,4 % à 82,3 % (variation absolue, 19,9 %; IC 95 %, 15,0 à 25,0). CONCLUSION: Les médecins et leurs équipes ont pu passer en revue leurs données de pratique sur l'utilisation d'ATX, réfléchir aux différences par rapport aux lignes directrices fondées sur des données probantes, discuter des résultats avec leurs pairs et identifier les possibilités d'amélioration. L'intervention a augmenté l'utilisation d'ATX pour l'ATG et l'ATH et a modifié la posologie pour mieux s'aligner sur les lignes directrices de pratique fondées sur des données probantes.

WGO Guidance for the Care of Patients With COVID-19 and Liver Disease.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the least deadly but most infectious coronavirus strain transmitted from wild animals. It may affect many organ systems. Aim of the current guideline is to delineate the effects of SARS-CoV-2 on the liver. Asymptomatic aminotransferase elevations are common in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease. Its pathogenesis may be multifactorial. It may involve primary liver injury and indirect effects such as "bystander hepatitis," myositis, toxic liver injury, hypoxia, and preexisting liver disease. Higher aminotransferase elevations, lower albumin, and platelets have been reported in severe compared with mild COVID-19. Despite the dominance of respiratory disease, acute on chronic liver disease/acute hepatic decompensation have been reported in patients with COVID-19 and preexisting liver disease, in particular cirrhosis. Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has a higher risk of respiratory disease progression than those without MAFLD. Alcohol-associated liver disease may be severely affected by COVID-19-such patients frequently have comorbidities including metabolic syndrome and smoking-induced chronic lung disease. World Gastroenterology Organization (WGO) recommends that interventional procedures such as endoscopy and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography should be performed in emergency cases or when they are considered strictly necessary such as high risk varices or cholangitis. Hepatocellular cancer surveillance may be postponed by 2 to 3 months. A short delay in treatment initiation and non-surgical approaches should be considered. Liver transplantation should be restricted to patients with high MELD scores, acute liver failure and hepatocellular cancer within Milan criteria. Donors and recipients should be tested for SARS-CoV-2 and if found positive donors should be excluded and liver transplantation postponed until recovery from infection.

Contrast-enhanced US in Local Ablative Therapy and Secondary Surveillance for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a high incidence of recurrence following therapy. Therefore, secondary surveillance (scheduled follow-up imaging after treatment) is an important part of disease management. The recent approval in the United States for use of a microbubble-based contrast agent for US liver imaging promotes the increased use of contrast-enhanced US (CEUS) in patients with HCC. Although the criteria for the diagnosis of HCC at CEUS are well described, there is a paucity of published literature describing the role of CEUS in ablative therapy and secondary surveillance. In the setting of ablative therapy, CEUS can have vital roles, including patient selection, intraprocedural guidance, and immediate postprocedural assessment. Although CEUS is not widely used, the authors found that it can be used to accurately detect residual or recurrent tumor, characterize the geographic pattern of recurrence (intrazonal, extrazonal, segmental, or remote), and assess for tumor in vein. In addition, similar to primary surveillance, secondary surveillance includes assessment of the entire liver for evaluation of new nodules. Arterial phase hyperenhancement is the reference standard characteristic of disease recurrence at secondary surveillance with CEUS. ©RSNA, 2019 See discussion on this article by Rodgers.

Association between Low Testosterone Levels and Sarcopenia in Cirrhosis: A Cross-sectional Study.

INTRODUCTION AND AIM: Sarcopenia is an independent predictor of mortality in cirrhosis. Hypogonadism is common in cirrhosis and has been associated with sarcopenia in non-cirrhotic chronic liver disease populations. The aim of this study is to investigate if sarcopenia is associated with low testosterone levels in patients with cirrhosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of 211 cirrhotic patients undergoing evaluation for liver transplantation. Sarcopenia was defined by computed tomography (CT) scan using specific cutoffs of the 3rd lumbar vertebra skeletal muscle index (L3 SMI). Morning testosterone levels were obtained in all patients. RESULTS: Of the 211 patients, sarcopenia was noted in 94 (45%). Testosterone levels were lower in sarcopenic patients (10.7 ± 1.1 vs. 13.7 ± 1.4 nmol/L, p = 0.03) and hypotestosteronemia was more frequent in them too (34 vs. 16%, p = 0.004). In males, those with sarcopenia had lower testosterone levels (14.6 ± 1.4 vs. 21.9 ± 1.8, p = 0.002), and the corresponding frequency of hypotestosteronemia (42 vs. 19%, p = 0.006) was also higher. There were no significant differences in female patients. There was a weak correlation between L3 SMI and testosterone levels (r 0.37, p < 0.001). On multivariable regression analysis including sex, body mass index (BMI), hypotestosteronemia, MELD and etiology of cirrhosis, only hypotestosteronemia (RR 2.76, p = 0.005) and BMI (RR 0.88, p < 0.001) were independently associated with sarcopenia. CONCLUSION: Low testosterone levels are associated with sarcopenia in male cirrhotic patients. The potential therapeutic effect of testosterone to reverse sarcopenia in these patients warrants evaluation in future trials.

Sofosbuvir-Based Therapy in the Pre-Liver Transplant Setting: The Canadian National Experience.

INTRODUCTION AND AIM: Sofosbuvir (SOF)-based regimen has been shown to have high efficacy even in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Treated patients may experience various degrees of hepatic recovery ranging from stabilization of liver function, to removal from liver transplant wait lists. The frequency of these occurrences in larger transplant eligible patient populations is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of SOF-based therapy in HCV infected transplant eligible patients and to evaluate short term changes in liver function and the effect on their liver transplant status. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective multicenter Canadian study of liver transplant candidates with advanced HCV cirrhosis treated with SOF-based therapy. Outcomes included sustained virologic response (SVR), and liver transplant status. RESULTS: 105 liver transplant candidates with advanced liver disease due to HCV were evaluated. The overall SVR was 83.8%. Hepatocellular carcinoma was diagnosed in 39 (37.1%) prior to transplant evaluation. In short term follow-up, 14 (13.3%) remained active on the list at the time of SVR12, 22 (20.9%) patients underwent liver transplantation, 7 (6.6%) patients were deactivated due to clinical improvement, 3 patients were delisted, and 10 deaths were reported. CONCLUSIONS: SOF-based therapy for patients progressing to liver transplantation leads to high SVR rates, short term stability in liver function, and deactivation from the transplant list .

Long-Term Follow-up and Quantitative Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Monitoring in North American Chronic HBV Carriers.

INTRODUCTION: Quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen (qHBsAg) combined with HBV DNA may be useful for predicting chronic hepatitis B (CHB) activity and nucleoside analogue (NA) response. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study we evaluated qHBsAg levels according to CHB disease phase and among patients on treatment. Random effect logistic regression analysis was used to analyze qHBsAg change with time in the NA-treated cohort. RESULTS: 545 CHB carriers [56% M, median age 48 y (IQR 38-59), 73% Asian] had qHBsAg testing. In the untreated group (44%), 8% were classified as immune tolerant, 10% immune clearance, 40% inactive, and 43% had HBeAg- CHB and the median HBsAg levels were 4.6 (IQR 3.4-4.9), 4.0 (IQR 3.4-4.5), 2.9 (IQR 1.4-3.8), and 3.2 log IU/mL (IQR 2.6-4.0), respectively; p < 0.001. In the NA-treated group (28% entecavir, 68% tenofovir, 4% lamivudine), no significant change in qHBsAg levels occured with time. However, 19% of patients on long-term NA had sustained qHBsAg < 2 log10 IU/mL. CONCLUSION: qHBsAg titers were associated with CHB phase and remained stable in those on long-term NA. A significant number of treated patients had low-level qHBsAg, of which some may be eligible for treatment discontinuation without risk of flare.

Integration of Contrast-enhanced US into a Multimodality Approach to Imaging of Nodules in a Cirrhotic Liver: How I Do It.

Accurate characterization of cirrhotic nodules and early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are of vital importance. Currently, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging are standard modalities for the investigation of new nodules found at surveillance ultrasonography (US). This article describes the successful integration of contrast material-enhanced US into a multimodality approach for diagnosis of HCC and its benefits in this population. The application of contrast-enhanced US immediately following surveillance US allows for prompt dynamic contrast-enhanced evaluation, removing the need for further imaging of benign lesions. Contrast-enhanced US also provides dynamic real-time assessment of tumor vascularity so that contrast enhancement can be identified regardless of its timing or duration, allowing for detection of arterial hypervascularity and portal venous washout. The purely intravascular nature of US contrast agents is valuable as the rapid washout of nonhepatocyte malignancies is highly contributory to their differentiation from HCC. The authors believe contrast-enhanced US provides complementary information to CT and MR imaging in the characterization of nodules in high-risk patients. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

A Rapid Bedside Screen to Predict Unplanned Hospitalization and Death in Outpatients With Cirrhosis: A Prospective Evaluation of the Clinical Frailty Scale.

OBJECTIVES: Screening tools to determine which outpatients with cirrhosis are at highest risk for unplanned hospitalization are lacking. Frailty is a novel prognostic factor but conventional screening for frailty is time consuming. We evaluated the ability of a 1 min bedside screen (Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS)) to predict unplanned hospitalization or death in outpatients with cirrhosis and compared the CFS with two conventional frailty measures (Fried Frailty Criteria (FFC) and Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB)). METHODS: We prospectively enrolled consecutive outpatients from three tertiary care liver clinics. Frailty was defined by CFS >4. The primary outcome was the composite of unplanned hospitalization or death within 6 months of study entry. RESULTS: A total of 300 outpatients were enrolled (mean age 57 years, 35% female, 81% white, 66% hepatitis C or alcohol-related liver disease, mean Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score 12, 28% with ascites). Overall, 54 (18%) outpatients were frail and 91 (30%) patients had an unplanned hospitalization or death within 6 months. CFS >4 was independently associated with increased rates of unplanned hospitalization or death (57% frail vs. 24% not frail, adjusted odds ratio 3.6; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7-7.5; P=0.0008) and there was a dose response (adjusted odds ratio 1.9 per 1-unit increase in CFS, 95% CI: 1.4-2.6; P<0.0001). Models including MELD, ascites, and CFS >4 had a greater discrimination (c-statistic=0.84) than models using FFC or SPPB. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is strongly and independently associated with an increased risk of unplanned hospitalization or death in outpatients with cirrhosis. The CFS is a rapid screen that could be easily adopted in liver clinics to identify those at highest risk of adverse events.

Making progress in the ethical treatment of medical trainees.

There is an inherent conflict within clinician educators as we balance the roles of healthcare provider to patients in need of care with that of educator of learners in need of teaching. In this essay we use Beauchamp and Childress' principles of biomedical ethics as a framework to compare the relationship that clinician educators have with their patients and their learners, and suggest that while we typically apply ethical principles when addressing the needs of our patients, these principles are frequently lacking in our interactions with learners. This dichotomy reflects a person-by-situation interaction that may be partly explained by the expectations of the regulatory bodies that define how clinicians should interact with patients and how educators should interact with learners. The result is that we may fall short in applying respect for autonomy, beneficence/nonmaleficence, and justice when addressing the needs of our learners. Fortunately there are ways in which we can incorporate these ethical principles into our interactions with learners while still adhering to accreditation standards and institutional policy. These include flipped classrooms and simulated learning experiences, incorporating aspects of instructional design that have been shown to improve learning outcomes, providing additional resources to learners with greater needs, and organizing training curricula around entrustable professional activities. Although the consistent application of ethical principles with all learners during all learning experiences is likely unachievable, we can, and should, move towards more ethical treatment of our learners.

A phase II trial of second-line axitinib following prior antiangiogenic therapy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Second-line treatment options in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are limited. Axitinib, a selective potent tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) of vascular endothelial growth factor VEGF) receptors 1, 2, and 3, merits exploration in HCC. METHODS: This was a single-arm phase II trial of axitinib in advanced HCC. Eligible patients were Child-Pugh A/B7, with measurable progressive disease after TKIs/antiangiogenic drugs. Axitinib was started at 5 mg twice daily orally, titrated from 2 to 10 mg twice daily as tolerated. The primary end point was tumor control at 16 weeks by RECIST1.1; secondary end points were response rate, comparing response by RECIST1.1 to Choi and modified RECIST, exploring dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging models, safety, progression-free (PFS), and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Thirty patients were treated. Of 26 patients evaluable for response, there were 3 partial responses (PR) per RECIST1.1; 13 PR by Choi, 6 PR and 1 complete response by modified RECIST. Tumor control rate at 16 weeks was 42.3%. Two-week perfusion changes were noted on functional imaging. Of 21 patients with evaluable α-fetoprotein response, 43% had >50% decrease from baseline. Most common axitinib-related grade 3/4 adverse events (AEs) were hypertension, thrombocytopenia and diarrhea. Of 11 patients with any grade hypertension, 7 had disease control >36 wks. Four patients discontinued treatment due to AEs. Median PFS was 3.6 months. Median OS was 7.1 months. CONCLUSIONS: With 42.3% tumor control at 16 weeks, primary endpoint was met. Axitinib has shown encouraging tolerable clinical activity in VEGF-pretreated HCC patients but further study should be in a selected population incorporating potential biomarkers of response.

Validation of coding algorithms for the identification of patients hospitalized for alcoholic hepatitis using administrative data.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies of alcoholic hepatitis (AH) have been hindered by the lack of a validated International Classification of Disease (ICD) coding algorithm for use with administrative data. Our objective was to validate coding algorithms for AH using a hospitalization database. METHODS: The Hospital Discharge Abstract Database (DAD) was used to identify consecutive adults (≥18 years) hospitalized in the Calgary region with a diagnosis code for AH (ICD-10, K70.1) between 01/2008 and 08/2012. Medical records were reviewed to confirm the diagnosis of AH, defined as a history of heavy alcohol consumption, elevated AST and/or ALT (<300 U/L), serum bilirubin >34 µmol/L, and elevated INR. Subgroup analyses were performed according to the diagnosis field in which the code was recorded (primary vs. secondary) and AH severity. Algorithms that incorporated ICD-10 codes for cirrhosis and its complications were also examined. RESULTS: Of 228 potential AH cases, 122 patients had confirmed AH, corresponding to a positive predictive value (PPV) of 54% (95% CI 47-60%). PPV improved when AH was the primary versus a secondary diagnosis (67% vs. 21%; P < 0.001). Algorithms that included diagnosis codes for ascites (PPV 75%; 95% CI 63-86%), cirrhosis (PPV 60%; 47-73%), and gastrointestinal hemorrhage (PPV 62%; 51-73%) had improved performance, however, the prevalence of these diagnoses in confirmed AH cases was low (29-39%). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion the low PPV of the diagnosis code for AH suggests that caution is necessary if this hospitalization database is used in large-scale epidemiologic studies of this condition.

Validation of the five-variable Model for End-stage Liver Disease (5vMELD) for prediction of mortality on the liver transplant waiting list.

BACKGROUND: Modifications to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) have been proposed to improve prioritization of liver transplant (LT) candidates. Using a U.S. database, we derived a revised MELD including sodium and albumin [5-variable MELD (5vMELD)] that improved prediction of waiting list mortality. Our objectives were to confirm the association between hypoalbuminaemia and mortality and to externally validate 5vMELD in Canadian LT candidates. METHODS: Among adults registered on the LT waiting list at the University of Alberta (01/2000-10/2009), Cox regression determined the association between albumin and 1-year waiting list mortality. The discrimination of MELD, MELDNa and 5vMELD for predicting 1-year mortality were compared using c-statistics. RESULTS: Among 677 patients, 17% died and 51% underwent LT within 1 year of listing. Median serum albumin was 3.1 g/dl (IQR 2.6-3.6) and 70% of patients were hypoalbuminaemic (albumin <3.5 g/dl). One-year mortality in patients with normal serum albumin and hypoalbuminaemia were 14% and 29% respectively (P = 0.004). For patients with serum albumin between 2.0 and 4.0 g/dl, an approximately linear, inverse relationship was observed between albumin and 1-year mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.45; 95% CI 1.03-2.03; P = 0.03]. For this outcome, the c-statistic of 5vMELD (0.778) was superior to those of MELD (0.754) and MELDNa (0.765) (both P ≤ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Hypoalbuminaemia is an independent predictor of mortality on the LT waiting list. Compared with MELD and MELDNa, 5vMELD improves prediction of mortality suggesting that modification of these scores to include serum albumin should be considered as a means of prioritizing LT candidates.

Protease inhibitor-based triple therapy is highly effective for hepatitis C recurrence after liver transplant: a multicenter experience.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis C (HCV) continues to be the leading indication for liver transplantation (LT). Sustained virological response (SVR) rates to pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) and ribavirin (RBV) therapy for recurrent HCV in Genotype 1 (G1) LT recipients have been disappointing (30-40%). Experience with triple therapy using protease inhibitors (PI) boceprevir (BOC), telaprevir (TVR) in these patients has been limited. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This national multicenter retrospective study included 76 patients (64 male, mean age 57 ± 6 years), treated for G1 HCV recurrence with either BOC (n = 41) or TVR (n = 35), who were non-responders or relapsers (n = 54), treatment naïve (n = 22) or had fibrosing cholestatic HCV (n = 3). 53 patients were on cyclosporine, 22 on tacrolimus and one patient on prednisone alone. RESULTS: On treatment virologic response was observed in 84% (64/76), 83% in BOC and 85% in TVR group. A higher week 4 response after starting triple therapy (RVR) was noted in TVR group 25/35 (81%) as compared to BOC group 26/41 (63%); p value = 0.02. The end of treatment response was 78% and 75% in BOC and TVR group, respectively. SVR 12 weeks after treatment discontinuation was observed in 59.5% (22/37); 58.3% in the BOC group and 61.5% in TVR group. Treatment was discontinued early in 23 patients (serious adverse effects n = 19, treatment failure n = 4). Infections occurred in 5 patients with 2 deaths (all in BOC). Anemia was the most common side effect (n = 55, 72%) requiring erythropoietin and RBV dose reduction. In the BOC group, cyclosporine dose reduction was 2.2 ± 1.0 fold and 8.6 ± 2.4 fold with tacrolimus. In TVR group, dose reduction was 3.0 ± 1.4 with cyclosporine and 12 ± 5.7 fold with tacrolimus. CONCLUSIONS: PI-based triple therapy appears more effective in producing HCV-RNA clearance than dual therapy. Tolerability is a serious issue and drug-drug interactions are manageable with close monitoring.