Carry-over effects of seasonal migration on reproductive success through breeding site retention in a partially migratory bird.

Understanding the maintenance and dynamics of phenotypic polymorphisms requires unpicking key ecological mechanisms shaping the fitness costs and benefits of expressing alternative phenotypes, generating selection. Seasonal migration versus year-round residence expressed in partially migratory populations represents one common polymorphism that can experience strong selection through differential reproductive success. Yet, key hypothesised pathways that could generate such selection remain to be empirically tested. One hypothesis is that migratory tactics affect subsequent reproductive success through carry-over effects on breeding site retention and resulting breeding dispersal. By remaining in breeding areas all year round, residents could retain their preferred breeding site between years, and consequently have higher reproductive success. Conversely, migrants that escape harsh non-breeding season conditions could return in better condition, with high resource holding potential, and outcompete residents to retain their site. Such effects could further depend on migration timing and vary between years. Yet, such pathways have not been quantified, precluding empirical parameterisation of partial migration theory. We used 4 years of breeding and non-breeding season data from partially migratory European shags (Gulosus aristotelis) to test whether the three most frequent migratory tactics in this population (full resident, early migrant departing soon after breeding, and late migrant departing in late autumn) differed in their breeding site retention; whether site retention predicted reproductive success; and hence whether effects of migratory tactic on reproductive success were explicable through site retention. Overall, residents were much more likely to retain their breeding site between years than both early and late migrants, and site retention was associated with increased reproductive success. Yet, these effects varied somewhat among years: late migrants were always least likely to retain their site but had variable relative reproductive success. Path analyses revealed that effects of migratory tactic on reproductive success were only partly attributable to breeding site retention. These results indicate that multiple mechanisms underlie reproductive selection on migratory tactics, potentially contributing to maintaining behavioural polymorphisms. Yet, the clear associations between migratory tactics and local breeding dispersal reveal that these movements can be strongly interlinked across seasons, shaping overall spatioseasonal dynamics in partially migratory systems.

Hierarchical Variation in Phenotypic Flexibility across Timescales and Associated Survival Selection Shape the Dynamics of Partial Seasonal Migration.

AbstractPopulation responses to environmental variation ultimately depend on within-individual and among-individual variation in labile phenotypic traits that affect fitness and resulting episodes of selection. Yet complex patterns of individual phenotypic variation arising within and between time periods, as well as associated variation in selection, have not been fully conceptualized or quantified. We highlight how structured patterns of phenotypic variation in dichotomous threshold traits can theoretically arise and experience varying forms of selection, shaping overall phenotypic dynamics. We then fit novel multistate models to 10 years of band-resighting data from European shags to quantify phenotypic variation and selection in a key threshold trait underlying spatioseasonal population dynamics: seasonal migration versus residence. First, we demonstrate substantial among-individual variation alongside substantial between-year individual repeatability in within-year phenotypic variation ("flexibility"), with weak sexual dimorphism. Second, we demonstrate that between-year individual variation in within-year phenotypes ("supraflexibility") is structured and directional, consistent with the threshold trait model. Third, we demonstrate strong survival selection on within-year phenotypes-and hence on flexibility-that varies across years and sexes, including episodes of disruptive selection representing costs of flexibility. By quantitatively combining these results, we show how supraflexibility and survival selection on migratory flexibility jointly shape population-wide phenotypic dynamics of seasonal movement.

Modelling the responses of partially migratory metapopulations to changing seasonal migration rates: From theory to data.

Among-individual and within-individual variation in expression of seasonal migration versus residence is widespread in nature and could substantially affect the dynamics of partially migratory metapopulations inhabiting seasonally and spatially structured environments. However, such variation has rarely been explicitly incorporated into metapopulation dynamic models for partially migratory systems. We, therefore, lack general frameworks that can identify how variable seasonal movements, and associated season- and location-specific vital rates, can control system persistence. We constructed a novel conceptual framework that captures full-annual-cycle dynamics and key dimensions of metapopulation structure for partially migratory species inhabiting seasonal environments. We conceptualize among-individual variation in seasonal migration as two variable vital rates: seasonal movement probability and associated movement survival probability. We conceptualize three levels of within-individual variation (i.e. plasticity), representing seasonal or annual variation in seasonal migration or lifelong fixed strategies. We formulate these concepts as a general matrix model, which is customizable for diverse life-histories and seasonal landscapes. To illustrate how variable seasonal migration can affect metapopulation growth rate, demographic structure and vital rate elasticities, we parameterize our general models for hypothetical short- and longer-lived species. Analyses illustrate that elasticities of seasonal movement probability and associated survival probability can sometimes equal or exceed those of vital rates typically understood to substantially influence metapopulation dynamics (i.e. seasonal survival probability or fecundity), that elasticities can vary non-linearly, and that metapopulation outcomes depend on the level of within-individual plasticity. We illustrate how our general framework can be applied to evaluate the consequences of variable and changing seasonal movement probability by parameterizing our models for a real partially migratory metapopulation of European shags Gulosus aristotelis assuming lifelong fixed strategies. Given observed conditions, metapopulation growth rate was most elastic to breeding season adult survival of the resident fraction in the dominant population. However, given doubled seasonal movement probability, variation in survival during movement would become the primary driver of metapopulation dynamics. Our general conceptual and matrix model frameworks, and illustrative analyses, thereby highlight complex ways in which structured variation in seasonal migration can influence dynamics of partially migratory metapopulations, and pave the way for diverse future theoretical and empirical advances.

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels.

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

Episodes of opposing survival and reproductive selection cause strong fluctuating selection on seasonal migration versus residence.

Quantifying temporal variation in sex-specific selection on key ecologically relevant traits, and quantifying how such variation arises through synergistic or opposing components of survival and reproductive selection, is central to understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics, but rarely achieved. Seasonal migration versus residence is one key trait that directly shapes spatio-seasonal population dynamics in spatially and temporally varying environments, but temporal dynamics of sex-specific selection have not been fully quantified. We fitted multi-event capture-recapture models to year-round ring resightings and breeding success data from partially migratory European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) to quantify temporal variation in annual sex-specific selection on seasonal migration versus residence arising through adult survival, reproduction and the combination of both (i.e. annual fitness). We demonstrate episodes of strong and strongly fluctuating selection through annual fitness that were broadly synchronized across females and males. These overall fluctuations arose because strong reproductive selection against migration in several years contrasted with strong survival selection against residence in years with extreme climatic events. These results indicate how substantial phenotypic and genetic variation in migration versus residence could be maintained, and highlight that biologically important fluctuations in selection may not be detected unless both survival selection and reproductive selection are appropriately quantified and combined.

Strong survival selection on seasonal migration versus residence induced by extreme climatic events.

Elucidating the full eco-evolutionary consequences of climate change requires quantifying the impact of extreme climatic events (ECEs) on selective landscapes of key phenotypic traits that mediate responses to changing environments. Episodes of strong ECE-induced selection could directly alter population composition, and potentially drive micro-evolution. However, to date, few studies have quantified ECE-induced selection on key traits, meaning that immediate and longer-term eco-evolutionary implications cannot yet be considered. One widely expressed trait that allows individuals to respond to changing seasonal environments, and directly shapes spatio-seasonal population dynamics, is seasonal migration versus residence. Many populations show considerable among-individual phenotypic variation, resulting in 'partial migration'. However, variation in the magnitude of direct survival selection on migration versus residence has not been rigorously quantified, and empirical evidence of whether seasonal ECEs induce, intensify, weaken or reverse such selection is lacking. We designed full annual cycle multi-state capture-recapture models that allow estimation of seasonal survival probabilities of migrants and residents from spatio-temporally heterogeneous individual resightings. We fitted these models to 9 years of geographically extensive year-round resighting data from partially migratory European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis. We thereby quantified seasonal and annual survival selection on migration versus residence across benign and historically extreme non-breeding season (winter) conditions, and tested whether selection differed between females and males. We show that two of four observed ECEs, defined as severe winter storms causing overall low survival, were associated with very strong seasonal survival selection against residence. These episodes dwarfed the weak selection or neutrality evident otherwise, and hence caused selection through overall annual survival. The ECE that caused highest overall mortality and strongest selection also caused sex-biased mortality, but there was little overall evidence of sex-biased selection on migration versus residence. Our results imply that seasonal ECEs and associated mortality can substantially shape the landscape of survival selection on migration versus residence. Such ECE-induced phenotypic selection will directly alter migrant and resident frequencies, and thereby alter immediate spatio-seasonal population dynamics. Given underlying additive genetic variation, such ECEs could potentially cause micro-evolutionary changes in seasonal migration, and thereby cause complex eco-evolutionary population responses to changing seasonal environments.

No evidence for fitness signatures consistent with increasing trophic mismatch over 30 years in a population of European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis.

As temperatures rise, timing of reproduction is changing at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in asynchrony between consumers and their resources. The match-mismatch hypothesis (MMH) suggests that trophic asynchrony will have negative impacts on average productivity of consumers. It is also thought to lead to selection on timing of breeding, as the most asynchronous individuals will show the greatest reductions in fitness. Using a 30-year individual-level dataset of breeding phenology and success from a population of European shags on the Isle of May, Scotland, we tested a series of predictions consistent with the hypothesis that fitness impacts of trophic asynchrony are increasing. These predictions quantified changes in average annual breeding success and strength of selection on timing of breeding, over time and in relation to rising sea surface temperature (SST) and diet composition. Annual average (population) breeding success was negatively correlated with average lay date yet showed no trend over time, or in relation to increasing SST or the proportion of principal prey in the diet, as would be expected if trophic mismatch was increasing. At the individual level, we found evidence for stabilising selection and directional selection for earlier breeding, although the earliest birds were not the most productive. However, selection for earlier laying did not strengthen over time, or in relation to SST or slope of the seasonal shift in diet from principal to secondary prey. We found that the optimum lay date advanced by almost 4 weeks during the study, and that the population mean lay date tracked this shift. Our results indicate that average performance correlates with absolute timing of breeding of the population, and there is selection for earlier laying at the individual level. However, we found no fitness signatures of a change in the impact of climate-induced trophic mismatch, and evidence that shags are tracking long-term shifts in optimum timing. This suggests that if asynchrony is present in this system, breeding success is not impacted. Our approach highlights the advantages of examining variation at both population and individual levels when assessing evidence for fitness impacts of trophic asynchrony.

Among-individual and within-individual variation in seasonal migration covaries with subsequent reproductive success in a partially migratory bird.

Within-individual and among-individual variation in expression of key environmentally sensitive traits, and associated variation in fitness components occurring within and between years, determine the extents of phenotypic plasticity and selection and shape population responses to changing environments. Reversible seasonal migration is one key trait that directly mediates spatial escape from seasonally deteriorating environments, causing spatio-seasonal population dynamics. Yet, within-individual and among-individual variation in seasonal migration versus residence, and dynamic associations with subsequent reproductive success, have not been fully quantified. We used novel capture-mark-recapture mixture models to assign individual European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) to 'resident', 'early migrant', or 'late migrant' strategies in two consecutive years, using year-round local resightings. We demonstrate substantial among-individual variation in strategy within years, and directional within-individual change between years. Furthermore, subsequent reproductive success varied substantially among strategies, and relationships differed between years; residents and late migrants had highest success in the 2 years, respectively, matching the years in which these strategies were most frequently expressed. These results imply that migratory strategies can experience fluctuating reproductive selection, and that flexible expression of migration can be partially aligned with reproductive outcomes. Plastic seasonal migration could then potentially contribute to adaptive population responses to currently changing forms of environmental seasonality.

Interactions between Environmental Contaminants and Gastrointestinal Parasites: Novel Insights from an Integrative Approach in a Marine Predator.

Environmental contaminants and parasites are ubiquitous stressors that can affect animal physiology and derive from similar dietary sources (co-exposure). To unravel their interactions in wildlife, it is thus essential to quantify their concurring drivers. Here, the relationship between blood contaminant residues (11 trace elements and 17 perfluoroalkyl substances) and nonlethally quantified gastrointestinal parasite loads was tested while accounting for intrinsic (sex, age, and mass) and extrinsic factors (trophic ecology inferred from stable isotope analyses and biologging) in European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis. Shags had high mercury (range 0.65-3.21 µg g-1 wet weight, ww) and extremely high perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) residues (3.46-53 and 4.48-44 ng g-1 ww, respectively). Males had higher concentrations of arsenic, mercury, PFOA, and PFNA than females, while the opposite was true for selenium, perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoA), and perfluooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS). Individual parasite loads (Contracaecum rudolphii) were higher in males than in females. Females targeted pelagic-feeding prey, while males relied on both pelagic- and benthic-feeding organisms. Parasite loads were not related to trophic ecology in either sex, suggesting no substantial dietary co-exposure with contaminants. In females, parasite loads increased strongly with decreasing selenium:mercury molar ratios. Females may be more susceptible to the interactive effects of contaminants and parasites on physiology, with potential fitness consequences.

The energetic cost of parasitism in a wild population.

Parasites have profound fitness effects on their hosts, yet these are often sub-lethal, making them difficult to understand and quantify. A principal sub-lethal mechanism that reduces fitness is parasite-induced increase in energetic costs of specific behaviours, potentially resulting in changes to time and energy budgets. However, quantifying the influence of parasites on these costs has not been undertaken in free-living animals. We used accelerometers to estimate energy expenditure on flying, diving and resting, in relation to a natural gradient of endo-parasite loads in a wild population of European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis We found that flight costs were 10% higher in adult females with higher parasite loads and these individuals spent 44% less time flying than females with lower parasite loads. There was no evidence for an effect of parasite load on daily energy expenditure, suggesting the existence of an energy ceiling, with the increase in cost of flight compensated for by a reduction in flight duration. These behaviour specific costs of parasitism will have knock-on effects on reproductive success, if constraints on foraging behaviour detrimentally affect provisioning of young. The findings emphasize the importance of natural parasite loads in shaping the ecology and life-history of their hosts, which can have significant population level consequences.

The role of parasitism in the energy management of a free-ranging bird.

Parasites often prompt sub-lethal costs to their hosts by eliciting immune responses. These costs can be hard to quantify but are crucial to our understanding of the host's ecology. Energy is a fundamental currency to quantify these costs, as energetic trade-offs often exist between key fitness-related processes. Daily energy expenditure (DEE) comprises of resting metabolic rate (RMR) and energy available for activity, which are linked via the energy management strategy of an organism. Parasitism may play a role in the balance between self-maintenance and activity, as immune costs can be expressed in elevated RMR. Therefore, understanding energy use in the presence of parasitism enables mechanistic elucidation of potential parasite costs. Using a gradient of natural parasite load and proxies for RMR and DEE in a wild population of breeding European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis), we tested the effect of parasitism on maintenance costs as well as the relationship between proxies for RMR and DEE. We found a positive relationship between parasite load and our RMR proxy in females but not males, and no relationship between proxies for RMR and DEE. This provides evidence for increased maintenance costs in individuals with higher parasite loads and suggests the use of an allocation energy management strategy, whereby an increase to RMR creates restrictions on energy allocation to other activities. This is likely to have fitness consequences as energy allocated to immunity is traded off against reproduction. Our findings demonstrate that understanding energy management strategies alongside fitness drivers is central to understanding the mechanisms by which these drivers influence individual fitness.

Validating accelerometry estimates of energy expenditure across behaviours using heart rate data in a free-living seabird.

Two main techniques have dominated the field of ecological energetics: the heart rate and doubly labelled water methods. Although well established, they are not without their weaknesses, namely expense, intrusiveness and lack of temporal resolution. A new technique has been developed using accelerometers; it uses the overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA) of an animal as a calibrated proxy for energy expenditure. This method provides high-resolution data without the need for surgery. Significant relationships exist between the rate of oxygen consumption (V̇O2 ) and ODBA in controlled conditions across a number of taxa; however, it is not known whether ODBA represents a robust proxy for energy expenditure consistently in all natural behaviours and there have been specific questions over its validity during diving, in diving endotherms. Here, we simultaneously deployed accelerometers and heart rate loggers in a wild population of European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis). Existing calibration relationships were then used to make behaviour-specific estimates of energy expenditure for each of these two techniques. Compared with heart rate-derived estimates, the ODBA method predicts energy expenditure well during flight and diving behaviour, but overestimates the cost of resting behaviour. We then combined these two datasets to generate a new calibration relationship between ODBA and V̇O2  that accounts for this by being informed by heart rate-derived estimates. Across behaviours we found a good relationship between ODBA and V̇O2 Within individual behaviours, we found useable relationships between ODBA and V̇O2  for flight and resting, and a poor relationship during diving. The error associated with these new calibration relationships mostly originates from the previous heart rate calibration rather than the error associated with the ODBA method. The equations provide tools for understanding how energy constrains ecology across the complex behaviour of free-living diving birds.

Reproductive performance of resident and migrant males, females and pairs in a partially migratory bird.

Quantifying among-individual variation in life-history strategies, and associated variation in reproductive performance and resulting demographic structure, is key to understanding and predicting population dynamics and life-history evolution. Partial migration, where populations comprise a mixture of resident and seasonally migrant individuals, constitutes a dimension of life-history variation that could be associated with substantial variation in reproductive performance. However, such variation has rarely been quantified due to the challenge of measuring reproduction and migration across a sufficient number of seasonally mobile males and females. We used intensive winter (non-breeding season) resightings of colour-ringed adult European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) from a known breeding colony to identify resident and migrant individuals. We tested whether two aspects of annual reproductive performance, brood hatch date and breeding success, differed between resident and migrant males, females and breeding pairs observed across three consecutive winters and breeding seasons. The sex ratios of observed resident and migrant shags did not significantly differ from each other or from 1:1, suggesting that both sexes are partially migratory and that migration was not sex-biased across surveyed areas. Individual resident males and females hatched their broods 6 days earlier and fledged 0.2 more chicks per year than migrant males and females on average. Resident individuals of both sexes therefore had higher breeding success than migrants. Hatch date and breeding success also varied with a pair's joint migratory strategy such that resident-resident pairs hatched their broods 12 days earlier than migrant-migrant pairs, and fledged 0.7 more chicks per year on average. However, there was no evidence of assortative pairing with respect to migratory strategy: observed frequencies of migrant-migrant and resident-resident pairs did not differ from those expected given random pairing. These data demonstrate substantial variation in two key aspects of reproductive performance associated with the migratory strategies of males, females and breeding pairs within a partially migratory population. These patterns could reflect direct and/or indirect mechanisms, but imply that individual variation in migratory strategy and variation in pairing among residents and migrants could influence selection on migration and drive complex population and evolutionary dynamics.

Indirect effects of parasitism: costs of infection to other individuals can be greater than direct costs borne by the host.

Parasitic infection has a direct physiological cost to hosts but may also alter how hosts interact with other individuals in their environment. Such indirect effects may alter both host fitness and the fitness of other individuals in the host's social network, yet the relative impact of direct and indirect effects of infection are rarely quantified. During reproduction, a host's social environment includes family members who may be in conflict over resource allocation. In such situations, infection may alter how resources are allocated, thereby redistributing the costs of parasitism between individuals. Here, we experimentally reduce parasite burdens of parent and/or nestling European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) infected with Contracaecum nematodes in a factorial design, then simultaneously measure the impact of an individual's infection on all family members. We found no direct effect of infection on parent or offspring traits but indirect effects were detected in all group members, with both immediate effects (mass change and survival) and longer-term effects (timing of parents' subsequent breeding). Our results show that parasite infection can have a major impact on individuals other than the host, suggesting that the effect of parasites on population processes may be greater than previously thought.

Contrasting responses of male and female foraging effort to year-round wind conditions.

There is growing interest in the effects of wind on wild animals, given evidence that wind speeds are increasing and becoming more variable in some regions, particularly at temperate latitudes. Wind may alter movement patterns or foraging ability, with consequences for energy budgets and, ultimately, demographic rates. These effects are expected to vary among individuals due to intrinsic factors such as sex, age or feeding proficiency. Furthermore, this variation is predicted to become more marked as wind conditions deteriorate, which may have profound consequences for population dynamics as the climate changes. However, the interaction between wind and intrinsic effects has not been comprehensively tested. In many species, in particular those showing sexual size dimorphism, males and females vary in foraging performance. Here, we undertook year-round deployments of data loggers to test for interactions between sex and wind speed and direction on foraging effort in adult European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis, a pursuit-diving seabird in which males are c. 18% heavier. We found that foraging time was lower at high wind speeds but higher during easterly (onshore) winds. Furthermore, there was an interaction between sex and wind conditions on foraging effort, such that females foraged for longer than males when winds were of greater strength (9% difference at high wind speeds vs. 1% at low wind speeds) and when winds were easterly compared with westerly (7% and 4% difference, respectively). The results supported our prediction that sex-specific differences in foraging effort would become more marked as wind conditions worsen. Since foraging time is linked to demographic rates in this species, our findings are likely to have important consequences for population dynamics by amplifying sex-specific differences in survival rates.

What is the state of the art on traditional medicine interventions for zoonotic diseases in the Indian subcontinent? A scoping review of the peer-reviewed evidence base.

BACKGROUND: Traditional medicine (TM) interventions are plausible therapeutic alternatives to conventional medical interventions against emerging and endemic zoonotic diseases, particularly in low-and middle-income countries that may lack resources and infrastructure. Despite the growing popularity in the usage of TM interventions, their clinical safety and effectiveness are still contested within conventional healthcare in many countries. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of the peer-reviewed literature that synthesises and maps the evidence on TM interventions for the treatment and prevention of zoonoses on the Indian subcontinent. The region, a global hotspot of biodiversity and emerging infections, is characterised by high prevalence of TM use. Based on the scientific literature (mostly case study research, n=l06 studies), our review (1) maps the scope of the literature, (2) synthesises the evidence on the application of TM interventions for zoonoses, and (3) critically reflects on the state of TM and identifies areas for future research focus. RESULTS: The evidence synthesis confirmed widespread usage of TM interventions for zoonoses on the subcontinent, with the majority of research reported from India (n=99 studies, 93.4%), followed by Pakistan (n=3 studies, 2.8%), Bangladesh (n=2 studies, 1.9%), and Sri Lanka (n=1, 0.9%). Most of the reviewed studies reported on ethno-medicinal uses of plant species, primarily for treating dengue (n=20 studies), tuberculosis (n=18 studies), Escherichia coli infection (n=16 studies), lymphatic filariasis and cholera (n=9 apiece). However, the evidence on the safety and effectiveness of these reported TM interventions is limited, indicating that these data are rarely collected and/or shared within the peer-reviewed literature. CONCLUSION: This review thus highlights that, whilst TMs are already being used and could offer more widely accessible interventions against emerging and endemic zoonoses and ectoparasites, there is an urgent need for rigorous clinical testing and validation of the safety and effectiveness of these interventions.

Using mechanistic models to highlight research priorities for tick-borne zoonotic diseases: Improving our understanding of the ecology and maintenance of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India.

The risk of spillover of zoonotic diseases to humans is changing in response to multiple environmental and societal drivers, particularly in tropical regions where the burden of neglected zoonotic diseases is highest and land use change and forest conversion is occurring most rapidly. Neglected zoonotic diseases can have significant impacts on poor and marginalised populations in low-resource settings but ultimately receive less attention and funding for research and interventions. As such, effective control measures and interventions are often hindered by a limited ecological evidence base, which results in a limited understanding of epidemiologically relevant hosts or vectors and the processes that contribute to the maintenance of pathogens and spillover to humans. Here, we develop a generalisable next generation matrix modelling framework to better understand the transmission processes and hosts that have the greatest contribution to the maintenance of tick-borne diseases with the aim of improving the ecological evidence base and framing future research priorities for tick-borne diseases. Using this model we explore the relative contribution of different host groups and transmission routes to the maintenance of a neglected zoonotic tick-borne disease, Kyasanur Forest Disease Virus (KFD), in multiple habitat types. The results highlight the potential importance of transovarial transmission and small mammals and birds in maintaining this disease. This contradicts previous hypotheses that primates play an important role influencing the distribution of infected ticks. There is also a suggestion that risk could vary across different habitat types but currently more research is needed to evaluate this relationship. In light of these results, we outline the key knowledge gaps for this system and future research priorities that could inform effective interventions and control measures.

Additive genetic and environmental variation interact to shape the dynamics of seasonal migration in a wild bird population.

Dissecting joint micro-evolutionary and plastic responses to environmental perturbations requires quantifying interacting components of genetic and environmental variation underlying expression of key traits. This ambition is particularly challenging for phenotypically discrete traits where multiscale decompositions are required to reveal nonlinear transformations of underlying genetic and environmental variation into phenotypic variation, and when effects must be estimated from incomplete field observations. We devised a joint multistate capture-recapture and quantitative genetic animal model, and fitted this model to full-annual-cycle resighting data from partially-migratory European shags (${Gulosus~{}aristotelis}$) to estimate key components of genetic, environmental and phenotypic variance in the ecologically critical discrete trait of seasonal migration versus residence. We demonstrate non-negligible additive genetic variance in latent liability for migration, resulting in detectable micro-evolutionary responses following two episodes of strong survival selection. Further, liability-scale additive genetic effects interacted with substantial permanent individual and temporary environmental effects to generate complex nonadditive effects on expressed phenotypes, causing substantial intrinsic gene-by-environment interaction variance on the phenotypic scale. Our analyses therefore reveal how temporal dynamics of partial seasonal migration arise from combinations of instantaneous micro-evolution and within-individual phenotypic consistency, and highlight how intrinsic phenotypic plasticity could expose genetic variation underlying discrete traits to complex forms of selection.

Host-pathogen time series data in wildlife support a transmission function between density and frequency dependence.

A key aim in epidemiology is to understand how pathogens spread within their host populations. Central to this is an elucidation of a pathogen's transmission dynamics. Mathematical models have generally assumed that either contact rate between hosts is linearly related to host density (density-dependent) or that contact rate is independent of density (frequency-dependent), but attempts to confirm either these or alternative transmission functions have been rare. Here, we fit infection equations to 6 years of data on cowpox virus infection (a zoonotic pathogen) for 4 natural populations to investigate which of these transmission functions is best supported by the data. We utilize a simple reformulation of the traditional transmission equations that greatly aids the estimation of the relationship between density and host contact rate. Our results provide support for an infection rate that is a saturating function of host density. Moreover, we find strong support for seasonality in both the transmission coefficient and the relationship between host contact rate and host density, probably reflecting seasonal variations in social behavior and/or host susceptibility to infection. We find, too, that the identification of an appropriate loss term is a key component in inferring the transmission mechanism. Our study illustrates how time series data of the host-pathogen dynamics, especially of the number of susceptible individuals, can greatly facilitate the fitting of mechanistic disease models.

Co-production of knowledge as part of a OneHealth approach to better control zoonotic diseases.

There is increased global and national attention on the need for effective strategies to control zoonotic diseases. Quick, effective action is, however, hampered by poor evidence-bases and limited coordination between stakeholders from relevant sectors such as public and animal health, wildlife and forestry sectors at different scales, who may not usually work together. The OneHealth approach recognises the value of cross-sectoral evaluation of human, animal and environmental health questions in an integrated, holistic and transdisciplinary manner to reduce disease impacts and/or mitigate risks. Co-production of knowledge is also widely advocated to improve the quality and acceptability of decision-making across sectors and may be particularly important when it comes to zoonoses. This paper brings together OneHealth and knowledge co-production and reflects on lessons learned for future OneHealth co-production processes by describing a process implemented to understand spill-over and identify disease control and mitigation strategies for a zoonotic disease in Southern India (Kyasanur Forest Disease). The co-production process aimed to develop a joint decision-support tool with stakeholders, and we complemented our approach with a simple retrospective theory of change on researcher expectations of the system-level outcomes of the co-production process. Our results highlight that while co-production in OneHealth is a difficult and resource intensive process, requiring regular iterative adjustments and flexibility, the beneficial outcomes justify its adoption. A key future aim should be to improve and evaluate the degree of inter-sectoral collaboration required to achieve the aims of OneHealth. We conclude by providing guidelines based on our experience to help funders and decision-makers support future co-production processes.