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BACKGROUND: There is evidence that global anthropogenic climate change may be impacting floral phenology and the temporal and spatial characteristics of aero-allergenic pollen. Given the extent of current and future climate uncertainty, there is a need to strengthen predictive pollen forecasts. METHODS: The study aims to use CatBoost (CB) and deep learning (DL) models for predicting the daily total pollen concentration up to 14 days in advance for 23 cities, covering all five continents. The model includes the projected environmental parameters, recent concentrations (1, 2 and 4 weeks), and the past environmental explanatory variables, and their future values. RESULTS: The best pollen forecasts include Mexico City (R2(DL_7) ≈ .7), and Santiago (R2(DL_7) ≈ .8) for the 7th forecast day, respectively; while the weakest pollen forecasts are made for Brisbane (R2(DL_7) ≈ .4) and Seoul (R2(DL_7) ≈ .1) for the 7th forecast day. The global order of the five most important environmental variables in determining the daily total pollen concentrations is, in decreasing order: the past daily total pollen concentration, future 2 m temperature, past 2 m temperature, past soil temperature in 28-100 cm depth, and past soil temperature in 0-7 cm depth. City-related clusters of the most similar distribution of feature importance values of the environmental variables only slightly change on consecutive forecast days for Caxias do Sul, Cape Town, Brisbane, and Mexico City, while they often change for Sydney, Santiago, and Busan. CONCLUSIONS: This new knowledge of the ecological relationships of the most remarkable variables importance for pollen forecast models according to clusters, cities and forecast days is important for developing and improving the accuracy of airborne pollen forecasts.
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Alérgenos , Previsões , Pólen , Pólen/imunologia , Previsões/métodos , Humanos , Mudança Climática , Modelos Teóricos , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Allergic rhinitis affects half a billion people globally, including a fifth of the Australian population. As the foremost outdoor allergen source, ambient grass pollen exposure is likely to be altered by climate change. The AusPollen Partnership aimed to standardize pollen monitoring and examine broad-scale biogeographical and meteorological factors influencing interannual variation in seasonality of grass pollen aerobiology in Australia. METHODS: Daily airborne grass and other pollen concentrations in four eastern Australian cities separated by over 1700 km, were simultaneously monitored using Hirst-style samplers following the Australian Interim Pollen and Spore Monitoring Standard and Protocols over four seasons from 2016 to 2020. The grass seasonal pollen integral was determined. Gridded rainfall, temperature, and satellite-derived grassland sources up to 100 km from the monitoring site were analysed. RESULTS: The complexity of grass pollen seasons was related to latitude with multiple major summer-autumn peaks in Brisbane, major spring and minor summer peaks in Sydney and Canberra, and single major spring peaks occurring in Melbourne. The subtropical site of Brisbane showed a higher proportion of grass out of total pollen than more temperate sites. The magnitude of the grass seasonal pollen integral was correlated with pasture greenness, rainfall and number of days over 30 °C, preceding and within the season, up to 100 km radii from monitoring sites. CONCLUSIONS: Interannual fluctuations in Australian grass pollen season magnitude are strongly influenced by regional biogeography and both pre- and in-season weather. This first continental scale, Southern Hemisphere standardized aerobiology dataset forms the basis to track shifts in pollen seasonality, biodiversity and impacts on allergic respiratory diseases.
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Alérgenos , Pólen , Austrália , Humanos , Conceitos Meteorológicos , Poaceae , Estações do AnoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Allergic disease is a recognized global epidemic and a significant cause of ill health and poor quality of life. The prevalence of pollen allergy is high throughout the world, and pollen exposure itself plays a role in emergency department presentations and hospitalizations for asthma. Lung function and airway inflammation are important measures of asthma activity and control. OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between exposure to multiple pollen types and lung function and markers of airway inflammation at 8 and 14 years of age, and to explore potential modification by residential greenness. METHODS: A cohort of high-risk children living in Sydney, Australia had spirometry and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) measured at 8 and 14 years of age. Ambient pollen concentration on the day of lung function measurement and up to three days prior was used as the exposure measure. Residential greenness was derived from satellite imagery. We modelled the association between six pollen types and lung function and FeNO. We also assessed modifying effects of residential greenness. RESULTS: Casuarina, cypress and Pinus pollen in the air the day before measurement and 3 days prior respectively, were associated with reduced lung function in 8-year-olds. The pollen exposures were associated with decreases in FEV1 and FVC; however, the FEV1 /FVC ratio was not affected. Effect modification by greenness was not observed due to loss of power. CONCLUSIONS & CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Airborne tree pollen of cypress, Casuarina and Pinus and not grass in some regions may be detrimental to childhood lung function.
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Pulmão/fisiopatologia , Pólen/imunologia , Rinite Alérgica Sazonal/fisiopatologia , Árvores/imunologia , Adolescente , Fatores Etários , Criança , Cupressus/imunologia , Fagales/imunologia , Volume Expiratório Forçado , Humanos , Exposição por Inalação , Pulmão/imunologia , New South Wales , Pinus/imunologia , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Rinite Alérgica Sazonal/diagnóstico , Rinite Alérgica Sazonal/imunologia , Saúde da População Urbana , Capacidade VitalRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Pollen is an important aeroallergen that triggers asthma exacerbations in children, but we know little about the impact of different pollen types in cities with varying climatic conditions and pollen seasons. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the role of ambient level of different types of pollen on a large time series of child and adolescent asthma hospitalizations in Sydney, Australia. METHODS: Childhood asthma hospitalization and the daily ambient pollen concentrations of different species were collected in South-West Sydney. With a bidirectional case-crossover design, we fitted conditional logistic regression models to measure the associations between instantaneous and up to 3 days lagged effects of pollen concentrations on asthma hospitalizations after controlling for potential confounders and testing for interactions. RESULTS: A total of 2098 children, more boys (59.7%) and 2-5 years old (62.6%), were hospitalized due to asthma. The geometric mean concentration of Cupressus, 7.88 [5.02] grains/m3 , was the highest during the study period. The increase from 75th to 90th percentile of grass (OR = 1.037, 95% CI 1.005-1.070), weed other than Plantago species (OR = 1.053, 95% CI 1.009-1.098) and unclassified pollen (OR = 1.034, 95% CI 1.010-1.058) were significantly associated with the odds of asthma hospitalizations. Boys were at greater risk of asthma exacerbations associated with grass (OR = 1.046, 95% CI 1.003-1.090) and unclassified pollen (OR = 1.041, 95% CI 1.010-1.073). There was evidence of effect modification by age groups for Cupressus, conifer, total tree and total pollen. CONCLUSIONS: Although boys are more vulnerable to grass pollen, weed, and other pollen are also important triggers of asthma exacerbations in all children and adolescents. These findings are important for urban green space planning and the development of pollen monitoring systems for families with children at risk of asthma exacerbations during peak pollen seasons.
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Alérgenos/imunologia , Asma/epidemiologia , Asma/imunologia , Admissão do Paciente , Plantas Daninhas/imunologia , Poaceae/imunologia , Pólen/imunologia , Adolescente , Austrália/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Estudos Cross-Over , Exposição Ambiental , Feminino , Hospitalização , Humanos , Masculino , Razão de ChancesRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Some fungal spores can trigger asthma exacerbation but knowledge of which outdoor fungal spores contribute to asthma hospitalisation is limited. OBJECTIVES: To examine the role of outdoor fungal spores in child and adolescent asthma hospitalisations. METHODS: We conducted a bi-directional time-stratified case-crossover study of child and adolescent asthma hospitalisations over 5 years. Conditional logistic regression assessed the role of 20 fungi taxa (Same day [L0] and lagged [L1-3]) adjusted for maximum temperature, humidity and grass pollen. Strata specific effects were explored if there was evidence of effect modification by age, sex, air pollutants or grass pollen. Non-linear effects examined with Generalized Additive Models. RESULTS: Of 2098 children hospitalised for asthma, 60% were boys; mean age was 5.5±3.7 years. Fungal spore counts peaked during warm months. Regression models found weak associations with Coprinus [L0,L1: OR=1.03, 1.01-1.06], Periconia [L0: OR=1.03, 1.001-1.07] and Chaetomium [L2: OR=1.08, 1.0-1.2]. Sex appeared to act as an effect modifier with girls having stronger associations with Cladosporium, Coprinus and total fungi. Older adolescent (14-18 years) hospitalisation was significantly associated with Coprinus and Ustilago/smuts. Air pollutants and grass pollen did not appear to act as effect modifiers. Non-linearity was not detected. CONCLUSION: There may be associations between some outdoor fungal spores and asthma hospitalisations. Further research needed to explore whether these findings can be replicated; and examine whether fungal sensitisation and/or human rhinovirus infections are associated with stronger effects. If findings are replicated, then the need to develop predictive models for fungal spore distribution and levels may become more important.
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Microbiologia do Ar , Asma/epidemiologia , Asma/microbiologia , Fungos/patogenicidade , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Poluição do Ar , Austrália/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Estudos Cross-Over , Exposição Ambiental , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pólen , Esporos FúngicosRESUMO
Although grass pollen is widely regarded as the major outdoor aeroallergen source in Australia and New Zealand (NZ), no assemblage of airborne pollen data for the region has been previously compiled. Grass pollen count data collected at 14 urban sites in Australia and NZ over periods ranging from 1 to 17 years were acquired, assembled and compared, revealing considerable spatiotemporal variability. Although direct comparison between these data is problematic due to methodological differences between monitoring sites, the following patterns are apparent. Grass pollen seasons tended to have more than one peak from tropics to latitudes of 37°S and single peaks at sites south of this latitude. A longer grass pollen season was therefore found at sites below 37°S, driven by later seasonal end dates for grass growth and flowering. Daily pollen counts increased with latitude; subtropical regions had seasons of both high intensity and long duration. At higher latitude sites, the single springtime grass pollen peak is potentially due to a cooler growing season and a predominance of pollen from C3 grasses. The multiple peaks at lower latitude sites may be due to a warmer season and the predominance of pollen from C4 grasses. Prevalence and duration of seasonal allergies may reflect the differing pollen seasons across Australia and NZ. It must be emphasized that these findings are tentative due to limitations in the available data, reinforcing the need to implement standardized pollen-monitoring methods across Australasia. Furthermore, spatiotemporal differences in grass pollen counts indicate that local, current, standardized pollen monitoring would assist with the management of pollen allergen exposure for patients at risk of allergic rhinitis and asthma.
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BACKGROUND: To understand the impact and burden of disease experienced by patients with hereditary angioedema (HAE). OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the use of short message service (SMS) to communicate with patients with HAE facilitates the collection of attack rate, medication use, and quality of life measurements. METHODS: Patients aged 12 years and older with doctor-confirmed HAE C1-inhibitor deficiency types I and II were invited to participate. We devised a novel method for monitoring attacks by using questions weekly via SMS to gain a more accurate picture of the burden of HAE in Australian patients in real time. RESULTS: A total of 2,648 weekly SMS messages were sent to 47 participants; 1,892 responses were received (71%). Participants reported 463 attacks across all treatment groups. Sixty percent of attacks were treated. Icatibant and C1-inhibitor concentrate were administered IV for 210 and 67 attacks, respectively. Of the 463 recorded attacks, 23 necessitated presentation to the hospital (5%), predominantly for facial and/or throat swelling. Several participants reported attacks (n = 186), which they chose not to treat. Most of those attacks were rated mildly severe. Twenty-one participants reported lost days owing to HAE attacks (44.7%). Fifty-eight attacks (17%) resulted in time away from work or school, equating to a total of 85.5 days lost. CONCLUSIONS: This study was a first of its kind, real-world, prospective, observational study of Australian patients living with HAE. Despite the availability of effective on-demand therapies, HAE remains burdensome. Wider access to safe and effective prophylactic therapies is needed for patients living with HAE.
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Angioedemas Hereditários , Envio de Mensagens de Texto , Humanos , Angioedemas Hereditários/tratamento farmacológico , Angioedemas Hereditários/epidemiologia , Angioedemas Hereditários/prevenção & controle , Qualidade de Vida , Estudos Prospectivos , Resultado do Tratamento , Austrália/epidemiologia , Proteína Inibidora do Complemento C1/uso terapêutico , Efeitos Psicossociais da DoençaRESUMO
Background: Temperate grass (eg, ryegrass) pollen is a major driver of seasonal allergic rhinitis (SAR) and asthma risks, including thunderstorm asthma. Data for the effectiveness of temperate grass pollen allergen immunotherapy (AIT) in SAR patients from the southern hemisphere, who are frequently polysensitized to subtropical grass pollens, are limited. The 300 IR 5-grass pollen sublingual immunotherapy tablet (300 IR 5-grass SLIT) is known to be effective in polysensitized SAR patients with primary allergy to temperate grasses, however, the influence of polysensitization to subtropical grass pollen on treatment responses has yet to be specifically addressed. Key aims of this study were to measure patient treatment satisfaction during 300 IR 5-grass SLIT treatment and evaluate how polysensitization to subtropical grass pollens affects treatment responses. Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted in 63 patients (aged ≥5 years) in several temperate regions of Australia prescribed 300 IR 5-grass SLIT for SAR over 3 consecutive grass pollen seasons. Ambient levels of pollen were measured at representative sites. Patient treatment satisfaction was assessed using a QUARTIS questionnaire. Rhinoconjunctivitis Total Symptom Score (RTSS) and a Hodges-Lehmann Estimator analysis was performed to evaluate if polysensitization to subtropical grass pollen affected SAR symptom intensity changes during SLIT. Results: A diagnosis of ryegrass pollen allergy was nearly universal. There were 74.6% (47/63) polysensitized to subtropical and temperate grass pollens. There were 23.8% (15/63) monosensitized to temperate grass pollens. From the first pollen season, statistically significant improvements occurred in SAR symptoms compared with baseline in both monosensitized and polysensitized patients, particularly in those polysensitized (P = 0.0297). Improvements in SAR symptoms were sustained and similar in both groups in the second and third pollen seasons, reaching 70-85% improvement (P < 0.01). Polysensitized patients from both northerly and southerly temperate regions in Australia showed similar improvements. Grass pollen counts in both regions were consistently highest during springtime. Conclusions: 300 IR 5-grass SLIT is effective in a real-life setting in SAR patients in the southern hemisphere with primary allergy to temperate grass pollen and predominantly springtime grass pollen exposures. Importantly, SLIT treatment effectiveness was irrespective of the patient's polysensitization status to subtropical grass pollens.
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BACKGROUND: Exposure to London Plane Tree (Platanus) bioaerosols in Sydney, Australia has been anecdotally linked to respiratory irritation, rhinitis, and conjunctivitis. OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationships between Platanus bioaerosol exposure, allergic sensitization, and symptoms. METHODS: Sixty-four subjects with self-reported Platanus symptoms were recruited from inner-urban Sydney. Allergic sensitization was determined by skin prick test (SPT) to 13 allergens. Airborne concentrations of Platanus pollen, trichomes, and achene fibers, and other pollen and fungal spores, were measured over the spring and summer of 2006-2007. Subjects' allergic symptoms were monitored concurrently. The Halogen immunoassay (HIA) was used to measure subjects' immunoglobulin E (IgE) reactivity to collected bioaerosols. RESULTS: Platanus pollen constituted 76% of total pollen between July 2006 and April 2007. Airborne concentrations of Platanus pollen peaked from August until October. Non-Platanus pollen peaked from July to December. Elevated concentrations of trichomes and achene fibers occurred from September to December and August to October, respectively. As determined by SPT, 85.9% of subjects were sensitized, 65.6% to any pollen tested, 56.3% to Lolium perenne, and 23.4% to Platanus. Higher mean daily symptom scores were only associated with high counts of non-Platanus pollens. HIA analysis demonstrated IgE binding to Platanus pollen in all Platanus sensitized subjects. Personal nasal air sampling detected airborne trichomes that were capable of being inhaled. Platanus trichomes or achene fibers did not bind IgE from any subject. CONCLUSIONS: Platanus bioaerosols exist in high concentrations between August and November in inner-urban Sydney but were not associated with seasonal symptoms. Platanus trichomes are inhaled and may constitute a respiratory irritant. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCTXXXXX.
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Alérgenos/imunologia , Pólen/imunologia , Rinite Alérgica Sazonal/imunologia , Árvores/imunologia , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Alérgenos/análise , Feminino , Humanos , Imunização , Imunoglobulina E/sangue , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , New South Wales , Análise de Regressão , Rinite Alérgica Sazonal/diagnóstico , Estações do Ano , Testes Cutâneos , População Urbana , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Peanut components are widely used in clinical practice; however, their utility to predict challenge outcome in the Australian children, outside of infants, is not well studied. OBJECTIVE: Can peanut component testing predict outcome of challenge in peanut-allergic children. METHODS: All children attending peanut challenges, regardless of previous allergic reactions to peanut or sensitization (skin prick test or peanut IgE) alone, were recruited. Serum collected before the challenge was analyzed for peanut IgE and Ara h 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, and 9 (ImmunoCap). RESULTS: Of the 222 children recruited, 89 (40%) were allergic on oral food challenge. Ara h 2 and 6 performed similarly to peanut IgE and skin prick test in predicting challenge outcome (area under the curve, 0.84-0.87). No baseline clinical characteristics, including past history, predicted challenge outcome. By logistic regression, degree of polysensitization to Ara h 1, 2, or 3 increased the odds of allergic reaction at oral food challenge at 0.35 and 1.0 kUA/L cutoff levels (P < .001 for both). All 11 children sensitized (>0.35 kUA/L) to Ara h 1, 2, and 3 reacted to peanut challenge. Degree of polysensitization at more than 1.0 kUA/L was associated with a lower cumulative eliciting dose (P = .016) and with severity of allergic reaction on challenge (P = .007). CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort, sensitization to the combination of Ara h 1, 2, and 3 was highly predictive of peanut allergy. Overall, only Ara h 2 as individual component most correlated with severity of reaction at challenge and adrenaline use. Ara h 8 and 9 were not useful in predicting challenge outcome.
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Arachis , Hipersensibilidade a Amendoim , Albuminas 2S de Plantas , Alérgenos , Antígenos de Plantas , Austrália/epidemiologia , Criança , Estudos Transversais , Humanos , Imunoglobulina E , Hipersensibilidade a Amendoim/diagnóstico , Hipersensibilidade a Amendoim/epidemiologia , Testes CutâneosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Recent single-center studies promote oral penicillin challenges, without skin testing, in patients with low risk/likelihood of true allergy. However, how best to define a low-risk penicillin allergy history is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To statistically determine an optimal low-risk definition, to select patients for safe outpatient penicillin challenges, without skin testing. METHODS: In a multicenter Australian study (February 2016 to May 2018), testing strategy (skin test and/or oral penicillin challenge) and outcomes were retrospectively collected for all penicillin-allergic patients. Statistical modeling was performed with 8 low-risk definitions, to determine an optimal low-risk definition. RESULTS: A total of 447 subjects (mean age, 45.3 years; 63.8% females) were analyzed. A history of benign, immediate, or delayed rash, more than 1 year before review, was the optimal low-risk definition. A total of 244 of 447 (54.6%) patients met this definition, of which 97.1% tolerated a 1- or 2-dose penicillin challenge, with no anaphylaxis in those who reacted. Of 203 patients designated higher risk, 54 (26.6%) had their allergy confirmed by skin test (n = 45) or challenge (n = 9). CONCLUSIONS: History of penicillin-associated rash (without angioedema, mucosal ulceration, or systemic involvement), more than 1 year ago, is sufficient to select a patient for a direct oral penicillin challenge. This large multicenter study demonstrates that this approach appears safe, and risk is comparable to that in other procedures being performed in primary care in Australia. The higher risk patients are more likely to benefit from skin testing. This simple risk-based delabeling strategy could potentially be used by nonallergists, leading to more efficient penicillin allergy delabeling service provision.
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Hipersensibilidade a Drogas , Penicilinas , Antibacterianos/efeitos adversos , Austrália/epidemiologia , Hipersensibilidade a Drogas/diagnóstico , Hipersensibilidade a Drogas/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pacientes Ambulatoriais , Penicilinas/efeitos adversos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Testes CutâneosRESUMO
Allergic diseases, including respiratory conditions of allergic rhinitis (hay fever) and asthma, affect up to 500 million people worldwide. Grass pollen are one major source of aeroallergens globally. Pollen forecast methods are generally site-based and rely on empirical meteorological relationships and/or the use of labour-intensive pollen collection traps that are restricted to sparse sampling locations. The spatial and temporal dynamics of the grass pollen sources themselves, however, have received less attention. Here we utilised a consistent set of MODIS satellite measures of grass cover and seasonal greenness (EVI) over five contrasting urban environments, located in Northern (France) and Southern Hemispheres (Australia), to evaluate their utility for predicting airborne grass pollen concentrations. Strongly seasonal and pronounced pollinating periods, synchronous with satellite measures of grass cover greenness, were found at the higher latitude temperate sites in France (46-50° N. Lat.), with peak pollen activity lagging peak greenness, on average by 2-3weeks. In contrast, the Australian sites (34-38° S. Lat.) displayed pollinating periods that were less synchronous with satellite greenness measures as peak pollen concentrations lagged peak greenness by as much as 4 to 7weeks. The Australian sites exhibited much higher spatial and inter-annual variations compared to the French sites and at the Sydney site, broader and multiple peaks in both pollen concentrations and greenness data coincided with flowering of more diverse grasses including subtropical species. Utilising generalised additive models (GAMs) we found the satellite greenness data of grass cover areas explained 80-90% of airborne grass pollen concentrations across the three French sites (p<0.001) and accounted for 34 to 76% of grass pollen variations over the two sites in Australia (p<0.05). Our results demonstrate the potential of satellite sensing to augment forecast models of grass pollen aerobiology as a tool to reduce the health and socioeconomic burden of pollen-sensitive allergic diseases.
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OBJECTIVE: Allergic rhinitis and allergic asthma are important chronic diseases posing serious public health issues in Australia with associated medical, economic, and societal burdens. Pollen are significant sources of clinically relevant outdoor aeroallergens, recognised as both a major trigger for, and cause of, allergic respiratory diseases. This study aimed to provide a national, and indeed international, perspective on the state of Australian pollen data using a large representative sample. METHODS: Atmospheric grass pollen concentration is examined over a number of years within the period 1995 to 2013 for Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, Melbourne, and Sydney, including determination of the 'clinical' grass pollen season and grass pollen peak. RESULTS: The results of this study describe, for the first time, a striking spatial and temporal variability in grass pollen seasons in Australia, with important implications for clinicians and public health professionals, and the Australian grass pollen-allergic community. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that static pollen calendars are of limited utility and in some cases misleading. This study also highlights significant deficiencies and limitations in the existing Australian pollen monitoring and data. IMPLICATIONS: Establishment of an Australian national pollen monitoring network would help facilitate advances in the clinical and public health management of the millions of Australians with asthma and allergic rhinitis.