Integrating genetic variants into clinical models for hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification in cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Identifying individuals at higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is pivotal to improve the performance of surveillance strategies. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the ability of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to refine HCC risk stratification. METHODS: Six SNPs in PNPLA3, TM6SF2, HSD17B13, APOE, and MBOAT7 affecting lipid turnover and one variant involved in the Wnt-ß-catenin pathway (WNT3A-WNT9A rs708113) were assessed in patients with alcohol-related and/or HCV-cured cirrhosis included in HCC surveillance programmes (prospective CirVir and CIRRAL cohorts). Their prognostic value for HCC occurrence was assessed using Fine-Gray models combined into a 7-SNP genetic risk score (GRS). The predictive ability of two clinical scores (a routine non-genetic model determined by multivariate analysis and the external aMAP score) with/without the GRS was evaluated by C-indices. The standardised net benefit was derived from decision curves. RESULTS: Among 1,145 patients, 86 (7.5%) developed HCC after 43.7 months. PNPLA3 and WNT3A-WNT9A variants were independently associated with HCC occurrence. The GRS stratified the population into three groups with progressively increased 5-year HCC incidence (Group 1 [n = 627, 5.4%], Group 2 [n = 276, 10.7%], and Group 3 [n = 242, 15.3%]; p <0.001). The multivariate model identified age, male sex, diabetes, platelet count, gamma-glutamyltransferase levels, albuminemia and the GRS as independent risk factors. The clinical model performance for 5-year HCC prediction was similar to that of the aMAP score (C-Index 0.769). The addition of the GRS to both scores modestly improved their performance (C-Indices of 0.786 and 0.783, respectively). This finding was confirmed by decision curve analyses showing only fair clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with cirrhosis can be stratified into HCC risk classes by variants affecting lipid turnover and the Wnt-ß-catenin pathway. The incorporation of this genetic information modestly improves the performance of clinical scores. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The identification of patients at higher risk of developing liver cancer is pivotal to improve the performance of surveillance. Risk assessment can be achieved by combining several clinical and biological parameters used in routine practice. The addition of patients' genetic characteristics can modestly improve this prediction and will ultimately pave the way for precision medicine in patients eligible for HCC surveillance, allowing physicians to trigger personalised screening strategies.

Performance of algorithms for identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B or C infection in the french health insurance claims databases using the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort.

The validity of algorithms for identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B or C virus (HBV or HCV) infection in claims databases has been little explored. The performance of 15 algorithms was evaluated. Data from HBV- or HCV-infected patients enrolled between August 2012 and December 2015 in French hepatology centres (ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort) were individually linked to the French national health insurance system (SNDS). The SNDS covers 99% of the French population and contains healthcare reimbursement data. Performance metrics were calculated by comparing the viral status established by clinicians with those obtained with the algorithms identifying chronic HBV- and HCV-infected patients. A total of 14 751 patients (29% with chronic HBV and 63% with chronic HCV infection) followed-up until December 2018 were selected. Despite good specificity, the algorithms relying on ICD-10 codes performed poorly. By contrast, the multi-criteria algorithms combining ICD-10 codes, antiviral dispensing, laboratory diagnostic tests (HBV DNA or HCV RNA detection and quantification, HCV genotyping), examinations for the assessment of liver fibrosis and long-term disease registrations were the most effective (sensitivity 0.92, 95% CI, 0.91-0.93 and specificity 0.96, 95% CI, 0.95-0.96 for identifying chronic HBV-infected patients; sensitivity 0.94, 95% CI, 0.94-0.94 and specificity 0.85, 95% CI, 0.84-0.86 for identifying chronic HCV-infected patients). In conclusion, the multi-criteria algorithms perform well in identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B or C infection and can be used to estimate the magnitude of the public health burden associated with hepatitis B and C in France.

Impact of direct-acting antiviral treatment for hepatitis C on cardiovascular diseases and extrahepatic cancers.

PURPOSE: The impact of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) on extrahepatic complications in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients remains poorly described. We estimated the association of DAAs with cardiovascular events and extrahepatic cancers. METHODS: The prospective ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort was enriched with individual data until December 2018 from the French Health Insurance Database (SNDS). CHC patients were enrolled between August 2012 and December 2015 in 32 French hepatology centers. A total of 8148 CHC adults were selected. Cardiovascular events (stroke, acute coronary syndrome, pulmonary embolism, heart failure, arrhythmias and conduction disorders [ACD], peripheral arterial disease [PAD]) and extrahepatic solid cancers were derived from the SNDS. Associations between DAAs and extrahepatic events were estimated using marginal structural models, with adjustments for clinical confounders. RESULTS: Analyses of 12 905 person-years of no DAA exposure and 22 326 person-years following DAA exposure showed a decreased risk of PAD after DAA exposure (hazard ratio [HR], 0.54; 95% CI, 0.33-0.89), a beneficial effect of DAAs on overall cardiovascular outcomes in patients with advanced fibrosis (aHR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.42-0.79), and an increased risk of ACD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.46; 95% CI, 1.04-2.04), predominant after the first year following DAA initiation. There was no association between DAAs and extrahepatic cancer risk (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.50-3.03). CONCLUSIONS: DAAs were not associated with extrahepatic cancer development or reduction. They were associated with a decreased risk of PAD and an increased risk of ACD, supporting long-term cardiac monitoring after DAA therapy.

Clinical outcomes after treatment with direct antiviral agents: beyond the virological response in patients with previous HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: In HCV-infected patients with advanced liver disease, the direct antiviral agents-associated clinical benefits remain debated. We compared the clinical outcome of patients with a previous history of decompensated cirrhosis following treatment or not with direct antiviral agents from the French ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort. METHODS: We identified HCV patients who had experienced an episode of decompensated cirrhosis. Study outcomes were all-cause mortality, liver-related or non-liver-related deaths, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation. Secondary study outcomes were sustained virological response and its clinical benefits. RESULTS: 559 patients met the identification criteria, of which 483 received direct antiviral agents and 76 remained untreated after inclusion in the cohort. The median follow-up time was 39.7 (IQR: 22.7-51) months. After adjustment for multivariate analysis, exposure to direct antiviral agents was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.24-0.84, p = 0.01) and non-liver-related death (HR 0.26, 95% CI 0.08-0.82, p = 0.02), and was not associated with liver-related death, decrease in hepatocellular carcinoma and need for liver transplantation. The sustained virological response was 88%. According to adjusted multivariable analysis, sustained virological response achievement was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.15-0.54, p < 0.0001), liver-related mortality (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.17-0.96, p = 0.04), non-liver-related mortality (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06-0.49, p = 0.001), liver transplantation (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05-0.54, p = 0.003), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.93, p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Treatment with direct antiviral agents is associated with reduced risk for mortality. The sustained virological response was 88%. Thus, direct antiviral agents treatment should be considered for any patient with HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION:  ClinicalTrials.gov registry number: NCT01953458.

Personalized surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis - using machine learning adapted to HCV status.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Refining hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs requires improved individual risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to develop algorithms based on machine learning approaches to predict the risk of HCC more accurately in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, according to their virological status. METHODS: Patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-related cirrhosis from the French ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort were included in a semi-annual HCC surveillance program. Three prognostic models for HCC occurrence were built, using (i) Fine-Gray regression as a benchmark, (ii) single decision tree (DT), and (iii) random survival forest for competing risks survival (RSF). Model performance was evaluated from C-indexes validated externally in the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort (n = 668 enrolled between 08/2012-01/2014). RESULTS: Out of 836 patients analyzed, 156 (19%) developed HCC and 434 (52%) achieved sustained virological response (SVR) (median follow-up 63 months). Fine-Gray regression models identified 6 independent predictors of HCC occurrence in patients before SVR (past excessive alcohol intake, genotype 1, elevated AFP and GGT, low platelet count and albuminemia) and 3 in patients after SVR (elevated AST, low platelet count and shorter prothrombin time). DT analysis confirmed these associations but revealed more complex interactions, yielding 8 patient groups with varying cancer risks and predictors depending on SVR achievement. On RSF analysis, the most important predictors of HCC varied by SVR status (non-SVR: platelet count, GGT, AFP and albuminemia; SVR: prothrombin time, ALT, age and platelet count). Externally validated C-indexes before/after SVR were 0.64/0.64 [Fine-Gray], 0.60/62 [DT] and 0.71/0.70 [RSF]. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for hepatocarcinogenesis differ according to SVR status. Machine learning algorithms can refine HCC risk assessment by revealing complex interactions between cancer predictors. Such approaches could be used to develop more cost-effective tailored surveillance programs. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis must be included in liver cancer surveillance programs, which rely on ultrasound examination every 6 months. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening is hampered by sensitivity issues, leading to late cancer diagnoses in a substantial number of patients. Refining surveillance periodicity and modality using more sophisticated imaging techniques such as MRI may only be cost-effective in patients with the highest HCC incidence. Herein, we demonstrate how machine learning algorithms (i.e. data-driven mathematical models to make predictions or decisions), can refine individualized risk prediction.

Validation of Baveno VI Criteria for Screening and Surveillance of Esophageal Varices in Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis and a Sustained Response to Antiviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Management of patients with cirrhosis includes endoscopic screening and surveillance to detect esophageal varices (EV) and prevent bleeding. However, the Baveno VI guidelines recommend avoiding endoscopies for patients with liver stiffness measurements below 20 kPa and platelet counts above 150,000 (favorable Baveno VI status) and endoscopic assessment of patients with higher levels of liver stiffness and platelet counts (unfavorable Baveno VI status). We aimed to validate the Baveno VI guidelines, evaluating outcomes of patients in the ANRS-CO12 CirVir cohort with compensated cirrhosis associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, with or without a sustained response to antiviral therapy. METHODS: We performed an ancillary study using data from 891 patients in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, treated at 35 centers in France, with HCV or HBV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, Child-Pugh A scores, no previous complications, and no hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent an endoscopic procedure and had interpretable liver stiffness measurements and platelet counts. Progression of portal hypertension (PHT) was defined as the onset of varices needing treatment (VNT) or PHT-related bleeding. An sustained response to antiviral therapy was defined as undetectable level of HCV RNA by polymerase chain reaction assay (<50 IU/mL) 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR) or an undetectable level of HBV DNA. The primary aims were to validate the Baveno VI guidelines for screening and surveillance of EV in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to study the effects of an SVR on the progression of PHT. RESULTS: A total of 200 patients achieved an SVR (22.4%) (94 patients with HCV infection, 98 patients with HBV infection, and 8 patients with both); 80 of these patients had favorable Baveno VI status and none had VNT. Progression of PHT was studied in 548 patients; during a follow-up period of 61.2 months (interquartile range, 39.5-80.6 months), 105 of these patients (19.1%) had progression of PHT. Lack of an SVR and grade 1 EV were independently associated with progression of PHT. At the time of PHT progression, all patients had unfavorable Baveno VI status. Achieving favorable Baveno VI status after an SVR was associated with the absence of PHT progression. Favorable Baveno VI status and SVR were independently associated with survival. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from a large cohort of patients with HBV- or HCV-associated cirrhosis in France, we validated the Baveno VI guidelines on screening and surveillance of PHT, even for patients who achieved a sustained response to antiviral therapy.

Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Direct Antiviral Therapy for HCV in Patients With Cirrhosis Included in Surveillance Programs.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Retrospective studies have found an unexpectedly high incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated cirrhosis who received direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents. We analyzed data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort to compare the incidence of HCC in patients with cirrhosis who received DAA therapy vs patients treated with interferon (IFN). METHODS: Data were collected from 1270 patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-associated cirrhosis recruited from 2006 through 2012 at 35 centers in France. For descriptive purpose, patients were classified as follows: patients who received DAA treatment (DAA group, n = 336), patients who achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) following an IFN-based regimen (SVR-IFN group, n = 495), or patients who never received DAA treatment and never had an SVR following IFN therapy (non-SVR group, n = 439). The patients were included in HCC surveillance programs based on ultrasound examination every 6 months, and clinical and biological data were recorded. To account for confounding by indication due to differences in patient characteristics at treatment initiation, we constructed a time-dependent Cox regression model weighted by the inverse probability of treatment and censoring (IPTCW) to assess the treatment effects of DAA on time until HCC. RESULTS: Compared with patients in the SVR-IFN group, patients in the DAA group were older, higher proportions had diabetes or portal hypertension, and liver function was more severely impaired. The crude 3-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 5.9% in the DAA group, 3.1% in the SVR-IFN group, and 12.7% in the non-SVR group (overall P < .001; unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] for HCC 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-3.84; P = .030 for the DAA group vs the SVR-IFN group). HCC characteristics were similar among groups. Among patients with HCC, the DAA group received less-frequent HCC screening than the other 2 groups (P = .002). After Cox analyses weighted by the IPTCW, we found no statistically significant increase in risk of HCC associated with DAA use (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.46-1.73; P = .73). CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort reveals that the apparent increase in HCC incidence observed in patients with cirrhosis treated with DAAs compared with patients who achieved SVR following an IFN therapy can be explained by patient characteristics (age, diabetes, reduced liver function) and lower screening intensity.

Compliance With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Guidelines Associated With Increased Lead-Time Adjusted Survival of Patients With Compensated Viral Cirrhosis: A Multi-Center Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Semi-annual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to determine how compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines affects survival times of patients with hepatitis C virus- or hepatitis B virus-associated compensated cirrhosis who developed HCC. METHODS: We collected data from the prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir study, from March 2006 through June 2012, on 1671 patients with biopsy-proven viral cirrhosis and no previous liver complications who were undergoing surveillance for HCC at 35 centers in France. Only 216 patients who developed HCC during the follow-up period were included in the analysis. Patients were considered to be compliant with surveillance guidelines if the time between their last surveillance image evaluation and diagnosis of HCC were fewer than 7 months and noncompliant if this time was 7 months or longer. RESULTS: HCC was detected in 216 patients, at a median follow-up time of 59.7 months. Of these patients, 140 (80.5%) were Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 135 (69.9%) received first-line curative treatment (15 underwent transplantation, 29 underwent resection, 89 received percutaneous ablation, and 2 received resection and percutaneous ablation), and 129 (60.0%) were compliant with surveillance guidelines. Seventy-nine of the patients with HCC died; 49 deaths were associated with tumor progression. After lead-time adjustment, overall survival (OS) time was longer in patients compliant with surveillance guidelines (median OS time, 53.2 months) than noncompliant patients (median OS time, 25.4 months) (P = .0107); this difference remained significant even when we changed lead time assumptions. In multivariate analysis adjusted for a propensity score, compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines was associated with low tumor burden, allocation of curative treatment, and increased OS time compared with noncompliance (hazard ratio for OS, 2.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-4.14; P = .0150). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, we associated compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines (fewer than 7 months between image evaluations) with early diagnosis, allocation of curative treatment, and longer adjusted OS of patients with hepatitis C virus- or hepatitis B virus-associated compensated cirrhosis and a diagnosis of HCC.

Non-virological factors are drivers of hepatocellular carcinoma in virosuppressed hepatitis B cirrhosis: Results of ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort.

Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs mainly in Asian patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. This study aimed to decipher the environmental and virological factors associated with HCC occurrence and validate risk scoring systems in a French multicentre prospective cohort of HBV cirrhotic patients. Patients with biopsy-proven Child-Pugh A viral cirrhosis included in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort who were HBsAg(+) without hepatitis C coinfection were selected for: (a) interview through a standardized questionnaire reporting coffee consumption and HCC familial history; (b) HBsAg quantification using baseline and sequential 2-year frozen sera; (c) baseline HBV genotype determination; and (d) assessment of risk factors and applicability of HCC risk scores (Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox models). Among 317 patients studied (261 men, median age 53 years, past or ongoing antiviral treatment 93.3% and baseline detectable HBV DNA in 88 patients), the baseline and 2-year median HBsAg levels were 810 and 463 IU/mL, respectively. After a median follow-up of 65.2 months, 27 HCC cases were diagnosed (annual incidence: 1.6%). Three factors were independently associated with HCC occurrence: age > 50 years, platelets ≤ 150 × 103 /mm3 and body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2 . Two out of five risk scores were validated, and the most accurate was PAGE-B at 1 year. Moreover, HCC in patients without maintained virological suppression seems more aggressive and less accessible to curative treatment. In conclusion, in French patients with HBV cirrhosis mostly virally suppressed, independent HCC risk factors were host-related (age, obesity) or linked to the severity of cirrhosis (thrombopenia), and the European PAGE-B score was the most accurate risk score.

Influence of Progenitor-Derived Regeneration Markers on Hepatitis C Virus-Related Cirrhosis Outcome (ANRS CO12 CirVir Cohort).

Progenitor-derived regeneration gives rise to the aberrant expression of biliary markers such as cytokeratin 7 (K7) and epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) in hepatocytes. We aimed to describe the expression of these molecules in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis and to investigate its potential influence on cirrhosis complications. Among patients with Child-Pugh A uncomplicated HCV-related cirrhosis enrolled in the prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, we selected individuals with a liver biopsy collected within 2 years before inclusion in the study. K7 and EpCAM immunostaining identified intermediate hepatobiliary cells. The influence of biliary marker expres-sion in hepatocytes on decompensation events and the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was studied using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model. Among the 337 patients eligible for the study (men, 67%; median age, 52 years), 198 (58.8%) had biopsies with K7-positive hepatocytes including extensive staining in 40 (11.9%) and 203 had EpCAM-positive hepatocytes (60.6%). During follow-up (median, 54.2 months), 47 patients (14%) experienced a decompensation event, and HCC was diagnosed in 37 patients (11%). Extensive K7 staining was independently associated with the occurrence of a decompensation event (hazard ratio [HR], 3.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-6.89; P = 0.010). EpCAM expression was independently associated with HCC occurrence (HR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.07-5.23; P =0.033) along with age and a low prothrombin ratio. CONCLUSION: Progenitor-derived regeneration depicted by K7 and EpCAM immunostaining of hepatocytes in liver biopsies of patients with compensated HCV-related cirrhosis marks a cirrhosis stage more prone to develop complications. (HEPATOLOGY 2018; 68:1534-1548).

12 Weeks of a Ribavirin-Free Sofosbuvir and Nonstructural Protein 5A Inhibitor Regimen Is Enough to Treat Recurrence of Hepatitis C After Liver Transplantation.

Sofosbuvir (SOF) combined with nonstructural protein 5A (NS5A) inhibitors has demonstrated its efficacy in treating a recurrence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) after liver transplantation (LT). However, the duration of treatment and need for ribavirin (RBV) remain unclear in this population. Our aim was to determine whether LT recipients could be treated with an SOF + NS5A inhibitor-based regimen without RBV for 12 weeks post-LT. Between October 2013 and December 2015, 699 LT recipients experiencing an HCV recurrence were enrolled in the multicenter ANRS CO23 CUPILT cohort. We selected patients receiving SOF and NS5A inhibitor ± RBV and followed for at least 12 weeks after treatment discontinuation. The primary efficacy endpoint was a sustained virological response 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR12). Among these 699 patients, 512 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Their main characteristics were: 70.1% genotype 1, 18.2% genotype 3, 21.1% cirrhosis, and 34.4% previously treated patients. We identified four groups of patients according to their treatment and duration: SOF + NS5A without RBV for 12 (156 patients) or 24 (239 patients) weeks; SOF + NS5A + RBV for 12 (47 patients) or 24 (70 patients) weeks. SVR12 values reached 94.9%, 97.9%, 95.7%, and 92.9%, respectively (P = 0.14). Only 20 patients experienced a treatment failure. Under multivariate analysis, factors such as fibrosis stage, previous treatment, HCV genotype, and baseline HCV viral load did not influence SVR12 rates in the four groups (P = 0.21). Hematological adverse events (AEs) were more common in the RBV group: anemia (P < 0.0001) and blood transfusion (P = 0.0001). CONCLUSION: SOF + NS5A inhibitors without RBV for 12 weeks constituted reliable therapy for recurrent HCV post-LT with an excellent SVR12 whatever the fibrosis stage, HCV genotype, and previous HCV treatment. (Hepatology 2018; 00:000-000).

Extrahepatic cancers are the leading cause of death in patients achieving hepatitis B virus control or hepatitis C virus eradication.

Data on extrahepatic cancers (EHCs) in compensated viral cirrhosis are limited. The objective of the prospective multicenter Agence Nationale de Recherche sur le SIDA et les Hépatites virales CO12 CirVir cohort was to assess the occurrence of all clinical events in patients with compensated viral cirrhosis, including all types of cancer. Patients with the following inclusion criteria were enrolled in 35 French centers: (1) biopsy-proven hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis, (2) Child-Pugh A, or (3) absence of previous liver complications including primary liver cancer (PLC). Patients were followed up prospectively every 6 months. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated according to age and gender using 5-year periods. The impact of sustained viral response (SVR) in HCV patients and maintained viral suppression in HBV patients were assessed using time-dependent analysis. A total of 1,671 patients were enrolled between 2006 and 2012 (median age, 54.9 years; men, 67.3%; HCV, 1,323; HBV, 317; HCV-HBV, 31). Metabolic features and excessive alcohol and tobacco consumption were recorded in 15.2%, 36.4%, and 56.4% of cases, respectively. After a median follow-up of 59.7 months, 227 PLCs were diagnosed (5-year cumulative incidence [CumI] 13.4%) and 93 patients developed EHC (14 patients with lymphoid or related tissue cancer and 79 with solid tissue cancer; 5-year EHC CumI, 5.9%). Compared to the general French population, patients were younger at cancer diagnosis, with significantly higher risk of EHC in HCV patients (SMR, 1.31; 95 confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.64; P = 0.017) and after SVR (SMR = 1.57; 95% CI, 1.08-2.22; P = 0.013). EHC was the fourth leading cause of death in the whole cohort and the first in patients with viral control/eradication. CONCLUSION: Compared to the general French population, HCV cirrhosis is associated with a higher risk of EHC and the first cause of death in patients with viral cirrhosis who achieve virological control/eradication. (Hepatology 2018).

Comparison of the effect of direct-acting antiviral with and without ribavirin on cyclosporine and tacrolimus clearance values: results from the ANRS CO23 CUPILT cohort.

PURPOSE: Direct-acting antiviral agents have demonstrated their efficacy in treating HCV recurrence after liver transplantation and particularly the sofosbuvir/daclatasvir combination. Pharmacokinetic data on both calcineurin inhibitors and direct-acting antiviral exposure in liver transplant recipients remain sparse. METHODS: Patients were enrolled from the ANRS CO23 CUPILT cohort. All patients treated with sofosbuvir/daclatasvir with or without ribavirin were included in this study when blood samples were available to estimate the clearance of immunosuppressive therapy before direct-acting antiviral initiation and during follow-up. Apparent tacrolimus and cyclosporine clearances were estimated from trough concentrations measured using validated quality control assays. RESULTS: Sixty-seven mainly male patients (79%) were included, with a mean age of 57 years and mean MELD score of 8.2; 50 were on tacrolimus, 17 on cyclosporine. Ribavirin was combined with sofosbuvir/daclatasvir in 52% of patients. Cyclosporine clearance remained unchanged as well as tacrolimus clearance under the ribavirin-free regimen. Tacrolimus clearance increased 4 weeks after direct-acting antivirals and ribavirin initiation versus baseline (geometric mean ratio 1.81; 90% CI 1.30-2.52). Patients under ribavirin had a significantly higher fibrosis stage (> 2) (p = 0.02) and lower haemoglobin during direct-acting antiviral treatment (p = 0.02) which impacted tacrolimus measurements. Direct-acting antiviral exposure was within the expected range. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated that liver transplant patients with a recurrence of hepatitis C who are initiating ribavirin combined with a sofosbuvir-daclatasvir direct-acting antiviral regimen may be at risk of lower tacrolimus concentrations because of probable ribavirin-induced anaemia and higher fibrosis score, although there are no effects on cyclosporine levels. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01944527.

Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis Reduces Risk of Liver and Non-Liver Complications.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We performed a prospective study to investigate the effects of a sustained viral response (SVR) on outcomes of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and compensated cirrhosis. METHODS: We collected data from 1323 patients included in the prospective Agence Nationale pour la Recherche sur le SIDA et les hépatites virales (ANRS) viral cirrhosis (CirVir) cohort, recruited from 35 clinical centers in France from 2006 through 2012. All patients had HCV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, were Child-Pugh class A, and had no prior liver complications. All patients received anti-HCV treatment before or after inclusion (with interferon then with direct antiviral agents) and underwent an ultrasound examination every 6 months, as well as endoscopic evaluations. SVR was considered as a time-dependent covariate; its effect on outcome was assessed by the Cox proportional hazard regression method. We used a propensity score to minimize confounding by indication of treatment and capacity to achieve SVR. RESULTS: After a median follow-up period of 58.2 months, 668 patients (50.5%) achieved SVR. SVR was associated with a decreased incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (hazard ratio [HR] compared with patients without an SVR, 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19-0.43; P < .001) and hepatic decompensation (HR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.17-0.39; P < .001). Patients with SVRs also had a lower risk of cardiovascular events (HR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.25-0.69; P = .001) and bacterial infections (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.29-0.68; P < .001). Metabolic features were associated with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with SVRs, but not in patients with viremia. SVR affected overall mortality (HR, 0.27 compared with patients without SVR; 95% CI, 0.18-0.42; P < .001) and death from liver-related and non-liver-related causes. Similar results were obtained in a propensity score-matched population. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed a reduction in critical events, liver-related or not, in a prospective study of patients with HCV infection and compensated cirrhosis included in the CirVir cohort who achieved an SVR. We found an SVR to reduce overall mortality and risk of death from liver-related and non-liver-related causes. A longer follow-up evaluation is required to accurately describe and assess specific risk factors for complications in this population.

Prognostic value of viral eradication for major adverse cardiovascular events in hepatitis C cirrhotic patients.

BACKGROUND: The objective was to examine the role of a sustained virological response (SVR) on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis. METHODS: Patients with the following criteria were enrolled in 35 French centers: (1) biopsy-proven HCV cirrhosis; (2) Child-Pugh A; (3) positive viremia; and (4) no prior liver complication, and then prospectively followed. All patients received HCV treatment after inclusion. MACEs included stroke, myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, cardiac arrest, and cardiovascular death. SVR, defined as negative viremia 12 weeks posttreatment, was considered as a time-dependent covariate, and its effect on MACE occurrence was assessed. The median follow up was 57.5 months, ending in December 2015. RESULTS: Sixty-two of 878 (7.1%) patients presented a total of 79 MACEs. The main predictive baseline factors of MACEs were Asian ethnic origin, history of MACEs, arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, current smoking, low serum albumin level, high total bilirubin level, and low platelet count. In multivariate analysis, SVR was associated with a decreased risk of MACEs (hazard ratio=0.35, 95% CI 0.09-0.97, P=.044), whereas Asian ethnic origin, arterial hypertension, smoking, and low serum albumin level remained predictive of MACE occurrence. The 5-year survival rate was 60.1% versus 87.5% in patients who did versus those who did not present a MACE (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with compensated HCV-related cirrhosis, Asian ethnic origin, arterial hypertension, smoking, and low serum albumin are independent predictive factors of cardiovascular events, whereas an SVR is associated with a decreased rate of cardiovascular events.

Early detection and curative treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma: A cost-effectiveness analysis in France and in the United States.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with cirrhosis. Patients outside clinical trials seldom benefit from evidence-based monitoring. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of complying with HCC screening guidelines. The economic evaluation compared surveillance of patients with cirrhosis as recommended by the guidelines ("gold-standard monitoring") to "real-life monitoring" from the health care system perspective. A Markov model described the history of the disease and treatment course including current first-line curative treatment: liver resection, radiofrequency ablation (RFA), and liver transplantation. Transition probabilities were derived mainly from two French cohorts, CIRVIR and CHANGH. Costs were computed using French and U.S. tariffs. Effectiveness was measured in life years gained (LYG). An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for a 10-year horizon and tested with one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The cost difference between the two groups was $648 ($87,476 in the gold-standard monitoring group vs. $86,829 in the real-life monitoring group) in France and $11,965 ($93,795 vs. $81,829) in the United States. Survival increased by 0.37 years (7.18 vs. 6.81 years). The ICER was $1,754 per LYG in France and $32,415 per LYG in the United States. The health gain resulted from earlier diagnosis and access to first-line curative treatments, among which RFA provided the best value for money. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that gold-standard monitoring for patients with cirrhosis is cost-effective, attributed to a higher probability of benefiting from a curative treatment and so a higher survival probability. (Hepatology 2017;65:1237-1248).

Nomogram for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis C virus cirrhosis (ANRS CO12 CirVir).

UNLABELLED: The aim of this work was to develop an individualized score for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis C (HCV)-compensated cirrhosis. Among 1,323 patients with HCV cirrhosis enrolled in the French prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, 720 and 360 were randomly assigned to training and validation sets, respectively. Cox's multivariate model was used to predict HCC, after which a nomogram was computed to assess individualized risk. During follow-up (median, 51.0 months), 103 and 39 patients developed HCC in the training and validation sets, respectively. Five variables were independently associated with occurrence of HCC: age > 50 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16; 3.25; P = 0.012); past excessive alcohol intake (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.02; 2.36; P = 0.041); low platelet count (<100 Giga/mm(3) : HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.62; 4.51; P < 0.001; [100; 150] Giga/mm(3) : HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.10; 3.18; P = 0.021); gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase above the upper limit of normal (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.11; 3.47; P = 0.021); and absence of a sustained virological response during follow-up (HR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.67; 5.48; P < 0.001). An 11-point risk score was derived from the training cohort and validated in the validation set. Based on this score, the population was stratified into three groups, in which HCC development gradually increased, from 0% to 30.1% at 5 years for patients with the lowest (≤3) and highest (≥8) scores (P < 0.001). Using this score, a nomogram was built enabling individualized prediction of HCC occurrence at 1, 3, and 5 years. CONCLUSION: This HCC score can accurately predict HCC at an individual level in French patients with HCV cirrhosis. (Hepatology 2016;64:1136-1147).

Hepatitis C virus cure from direct-acting antivirals and mortality: Are people with and without a history of injection drug use in the same boat? (ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort).

INTRODUCTION: The risk of mortality in people with a history of injection drug use (PHID) is high, as is the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Although direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are effective in this population in terms of sustained virological response, it is not known whether PHID benefit as much as people with no history of injection drug use from DAA-related HCV cure in terms of reduced all-cause mortality. METHODS: Using Cox proportional hazards models based on the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort data (n = 9735), we identified factors associated with all-cause mortality among HCV-infected people. We tested for interaction effects between drug injection status, HCV cure and other explanatory variables. RESULTS: DAA-related HCV cure was associated with a 66% (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.34 [0.29-0.39]) lower risk of all-cause mortality, irrespective of drug injection status. Detrimental effects of unhealthy alcohol use on mortality were identified in PHID only. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: DAA-related HCV cure led to comparable benefits in terms of reduced mortality in PHID and people with no history of injection drug use. Policies and strategies to enhance DAA uptake among PHID are needed to lower mortality in this population. Clinical trial registration details: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01953458.

Prevalence and risk factors of frailty among adults living with HIV aged 70 years or older.

OBJECTIVES AND DESIGN: Frailty is a phenotype associated with adverse health outcomes in older persons. It has been evaluated mainly in middle-aged persons with HIV (PWH). The French multicenter prospective ANRS EP66 SEPTAVIH study aimed to assess frailty prevalence and risk factors in PWH aged 70 years or older on antiretroviral treatment (ART) for at least 12 months. METHODS: At baseline, Fried frailty phenotype criteria, sociodemographic data, medical/HIV history, functional status, comorbidities, including impaired cognitive function, depression, history of falls, and co-medications were collected. We measured the prevalence of frailty and compared the characteristics of frail versus prefrail and robust participants using univariate (Kruskal-Wallis tests for continuous variables and Chi 2 tests for categorical variables) and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Five hundred and ten PWH, mostly male (81.4%), were included with a median age of 73 years. The median HIV and ART durations were 22.7 years and 15.7 years, respectively. The prevalence of frailty was 13.5%, and of prefrailty 63.3%. In the multivariate analysis, increasing age [odds ratio (OR) 1.79 for each 5-year increment; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-2.41], deprived socioeconomic status (OR 3.17; 95% CI 1.76-5.70), and multimorbidities (three or more) (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.06-3.90) were associated with frailty. CONCLUSION: A low prevalence of frailty was reported (13.5%) in PWH aged 70 years or older, whereas two-thirds of them were prefrail. Age, low socioeconomic status, and multimorbidities, but no HIV-related factors, were associated with frailty, suggesting the need to target these factors to help promoting successful aging in this population.

Severe liver fibrosis in the HCV cure era: Major effects of social vulnerability, diabetes, and unhealthy behaviors.

Background & Aims: After HCV cure, not all patients achieve significant liver fibrosis regression. We explored the effects of clinical and socio-behavioral factors on liver fibrosis, before and after HCV cure with direct-acting antivirals. Methods: We analyzed data from the ongoing ANRS CO22 HEPATHER cohort, which prospectively collects clinical and socio-behavioral data on HCV-infected patients. Mixed-effects logistic regression models helped identify predictors of longitudinal measures of severe liver fibrosis, defined as a fibrosis-4 index >3.25. We also estimated the adjusted population attributable fractions (PAFs) for modifiable risk factors. Results: Among the 9,692 study patients (accounting for 24,687 visits over 4 years of follow-up, 48.5% of which were post-HCV cure), 26% had severe fibrosis at enrolment. After multivariable adjustment, HCV-cured patients had an 87% lower risk of severe fibrosis. An inverse dose-response relationship was found for coffee consumption, with the risk of severe fibrosis diminishing by 58% per additional cup/day (adjusted odds ratio (aOR 0.42; 95% CI 0.38-0.46). Unemployment, low educational level, and diabetes were associated with a higher severe fibrosis risk (aOR 1.69; 95% CI 1.32-2.16, aOR 1.50; 95% CI 1.20-1.86, and aOR 4.27; 95% CI 3.15-5.77, respectively). Severe fibrosis risk was 3.6/4.6-fold higher in individuals with previous/current unhealthy alcohol use than in abstinent patients. All these associations remained valid after HCV cure. The risk factors accounting for the greatest severe fibrosis burden were unemployment, low education level, and diabetes (PAFs: 29%, 21%, and 17%, respectively). Conclusions: Monitoring liver fibrosis after HCV cure is crucial for patients with low socioeconomic status, previous/current unhealthy alcohol use, and diabetes. Innovative HCV care models for the most socially vulnerable individuals and interventions for healthier lifestyles are needed to reinforce the positive effects of HCV cure on liver health. Lay summary: After hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure, not all patients achieve significant liver fibrosis regression. Herein, we studied the effects of clinical and socio-behavioral factors on the risk of severe liver fibrosis. Coffee consumption was strongly inversely associated with severe fibrosis, while diabetes, previous and current unhealthy alcohol use were associated with a 4.3-, 3.6- and 4.6-fold higher risk of severe fibrosis, respectively. Unemployment and low educational level were also associated with a higher risk of severe fibrosis. All these associations remained valid after HCV cure. These results demonstrate the need to continue liver fibrosis monitoring in at-risk groups, and to facilitate healthier lifestyles after HCV cure as a clinical and public health priority.