Serum identification of at-risk MASH: The metabolomics-advanced steatohepatitis fibrosis score (MASEF).

BACKGROUND: Early identification of those with NAFLD activity score ≥ 4 and significant fibrosis (≥F2) or at-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is a priority as these patients are at increased risk for disease progression and may benefit from therapies. We developed and validated a highly specific metabolomics-driven score to identify at-risk MASH. METHODS: We included derivation (n = 790) and validation (n = 565) cohorts from international tertiary centers. Patients underwent laboratory assessment and liver biopsy for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease. Based on 12 lipids, body mass index, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase, the MASEF score was developed to identify at-risk MASH and compared to the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score. We further compared the performance of a FIB-4 + MASEF algorithm to that of FIB-4 + liver stiffness measurements (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE). RESULTS: The diagnostic performance of the MASEF score showed an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.79), 0.69, 0.74, 0.53, and 0.85 in the derivation cohort, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.83), 0.78, 0.65, 0.48, and 0.88 in the validation cohort, while FibroScan-AST performance in the validation cohort was 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.79; p = 0.064), 0.58, 0.79, 0.67, and 0.73, respectively. FIB-4+MASEF showed similar overall performance compared with FIB-4 + LSM by VCTE ( p = 0.69) to identify at-risk MASH. CONCLUSION: MASEF is a promising diagnostic tool for the assessment of at-risk MASH. It could be used alternatively to LSM by VCTE in the algorithm that is currently recommended by several guidance publications.

PAGE-B incorporating moderate HBV DNA levels predicts risk of HCC among patients entering into HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recent studies reported that moderate HBV DNA levels are significantly associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive, non-cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to develop and validate a new risk score to predict HCC development using baseline moderate HBV DNA levels in patients entering into HBeAg-positive CHB from chronic infection. METHODS: This multicenter cohort study recruited 3,585 HBeAg-positive, non-cirrhotic patients who started antiviral treatment with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate at phase change into CHB from chronic infection in 23 tertiary university-affiliated hospitals of South Korea (2012-2020). A new HCC risk score (PAGED-B) was developed (training cohort, n = 2,367) based on multivariable Cox models. Internal validation using bootstrap sampling and external validation (validation cohort, n = 1,218) were performed. RESULTS: Sixty (1.7%) patients developed HCC (median follow-up, 5.4 years). In the training cohort, age, gender, platelets, diabetes and moderate HBV DNA levels (5.00-7.99 log10 IU/ml) were independently associated with HCC development; the PAGED-B score (based on these five predictors) showed a time-dependent AUROC of 0.81 for the prediction of HCC development at 5 years. In the validation cohort, the AUROC of PAGED-B was 0.85, significantly higher than for other risk scores (PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, CAMD, and REAL-B). When stratified by the PAGED-B score, the HCC risk was significantly higher in high-risk patients than in low-risk patients (sub-distribution hazard ratio = 8.43 in the training and 11.59 in the validation cohorts, all p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The newly established PAGED-B score may enable risk stratification for HCC at the time of transition into HBeAg-positive CHB. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In this study, we developed and validated a new risk score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients entering into hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) from chronic infection. The newly established PAGED-B score, which included baseline moderate HBV DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml), improved on the predictive performance of prior risk scores. Based on a patient's age, gender, diabetic status, platelet count, and moderate DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml) at the phase change into CHB from chronic infection, the PAGED-B score represents a reliable and easily available risk score to predict HCC development during the first 5 years of antiviral treatment in HBeAg-positive patients entering into CHB. With a scoring range from 0 to 12 points, the PAGED-B score significantly differentiated the 5-year HCC risk: low <7 points and high ≥7 points.

Predicting survival in patients with 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding receiving ß-blockers+ligation to prevent re-bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality. METHODS: A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year. RESULTS: Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death. CONCLUSION: The majority of 'non-high-risk' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably 'non-high-risk' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.

Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography Scores to Predict Liver-Related Events in Steatotic Liver Disease.

Importance: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is currently the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. It is important to develop noninvasive tests to assess the disease severity and prognosis. Objective: To study the prognostic implications of baseline levels and dynamic changes of the vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-based scores developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (Agile 3+) and cirrhosis (Agile 4) in patients with MASLD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included data from a natural history cohort of patients with MASLD who underwent VCTE examination at 16 tertiary referral centers in the US, Europe, and Asia from February 2004 to January 2023, of which the data were collected prospectively at 14 centers. Eligible patients were adults aged at least 18 years with hepatic steatosis diagnosed by histologic methods (steatosis in ≥5% of hepatocytes) or imaging studies (ultrasonography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or controlled attenuation parameter ≥248 dB/m by VCTE). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was liver-related events (LREs), defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, or hepatorenal syndrome), liver transplant, and liver-related deaths. The Agile scores were compared with histologic and 8 other noninvasive tests. Results: A total of 16 603 patients underwent VCTE examination at baseline (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [13.7] years; 9600 [57.8%] were male). At a median follow-up of 51.7 (IQR, 25.2-85.2) months, 316 patients (1.9%) developed LREs. Both Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores classified fewer patients between the low and high cutoffs than most fibrosis scores and achieved the highest discriminatory power in predicting LREs (integrated area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.89). A total of 10 920 patients (65.8%) had repeated VCTE examination at a median interval of 15 (IQR, 11.3-27.7) months and were included in the serial analysis. A total of 81.9% of patients (7208 of 8810) had stable Agile 3+ scores and 92.6% of patients (8163 of 8810) had stable Agile 4 scores (same risk categories at both assessments). The incidence of LREs was 0.6 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently low Agile 3+ scores and 30.1 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently high Agile 3+ scores. In patients with high Agile 3+ score at baseline, a decrease in the score by more than 20% was associated with substantial reduction in the risk of LREs. A similar trend was observed for the Agile 4 score, although it missed more LREs in the low-risk group. Conclusions and Relevance: Findings of this study suggest that single or serial Agile scores are highly accurate in predicting LREs in patients with MASLD, making them suitable alternatives to liver biopsy in routine clinical practice and in phase 2b and 3 clinical trials for steatohepatitis.

Advanced fibrosis associated with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in Spain: results of a Delphi study. / Fibrosis avanzada asociada a esteatohepatitis no alcohólica (NASH) en España: resultados de un estudio Delphi.

OBJECTIVE: To describe in detail the epidemiology, diagnosis, clinical management, treatment options, impact on quality of life and unmet needs of patients with advanced liver fibrosis (F3-F4) associated with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in Spain. METHODOLOGY: Delphi study of two rounds of consultation rounds with 41 expert hepatologists from 16 autonomous communities to collect their experience in clinical practice. RESULTS: The estimated prevalence of adult patients diagnosed with F3-F4 fibrosis associated with NASH in Spain is 0.019% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.019-0.020%). Approximately 7,588 adults with this condition are currently diagnosed and managed in the Digestive System Services of Spanish hospitals, and around 1,881 new patients are diagnosed each year. Management is multidisciplinary and includes the specialties of Digestive System, Endocrinology and Internal Medicine, considering the frequently associated metabolic comorbidities (obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus or dysmetabolic iron overload). Despite a clear impact on quality of life, this it is not routinely evaluated in clinical practice. The most widely used non-invasive diagnostic techniques are transitional elastography and liver fibrosis index 4 (FIB-4). The absence of effective and safe treatments appears as the main unmet need for the management of these patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a representation of the current situation of patients diagnosed with F3-F4 fibrosis associated with NASH in Spain, increasing the evidence available and contributing to informed decision-making by professionals and the health system.

Recommendations for the future management of thrombocytopenia in patients with liver cirrhosis: A modified RAND/UCLA appropriateness method.

OBJECTIVE: The lack of consensus and specific guidelines, and the introduction of new treatments in thrombocytopenia management in liver cirrhosis patients, required a series of recommendations by experts to improve knowledge on this disease. This study's aim was to improve the knowledge around thrombocytopenia in liver cirrhosis patients, in order to contribute to the generation of future evidence to improve the management of this disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A modified version of the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method was used. The scientific committee, a multidisciplinary team of 7 experts in managing thrombocytopenia in liver cirrhosis patients, identified the expert panel, and participated in elaborating the questionnaire. Thirty experts from different Spanish institutions were invited to answer a 48-item questionnaire covering 6 areas on a nine-point Likert scale. Two rounds were voted. The consensus was obtained if >77.7% of panelists reached agreement or disagreement. RESULTS: A total of 48 statements were developed by the scientific committee and then voted by the experts, resulting in 28 defined as appropriate and completely necessary, relating to evidence generation (10), care circuit, (8), hemorrhagic risk assessment, decision-making and diagnostic tests (14), professionals' role and multidisciplinary coordination (9) and patient education (7). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first consensus in Spain on the management of thrombocytopenia in liver cirrhosis patients. Experts indicated several recommendations to be carried out in different areas that could help physicians make better decisions in their clinical practice.

Hepatic encephalopathy is not a contraindication to pre-emptive TIPS in high-risk patients with cirrhosis with variceal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: A pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (pTIPS) reduces mortality in high-risk patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh C/B+active bleeding) with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). Real-life studies point out that <15% of patients eligible for pTIPS ultimately undergo transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) due to concerns about hepatic encephalopathy (HE). The outcome of patients undergoing pTIPS with HE is unknown. We aimed to (1) assess the prevalence of HE in patients with AVB; (2) evaluate the outcome of patients presenting HE at admission after pTIPS; and (3) determine if HE at admission is a risk factor for death and post-TIPS HE. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is an observational study including 2138 patients from 34 centres between October 2011 and May 2015. Placement of pTIPS was based on individual centre policy. Patients were followed up to 1 year, death or liver transplantation. RESULTS: 671 of 2138 patients were considered at high risk, 66 received pTIPS and 605 endoscopic+drug treatment. At admission, HE was significantly more frequent in high-risk than in low-risk patients (39.2% vs 10.6%, p<0.001). In high-risk patients with HE at admission, pTIPS was associated with a lower 1-year mortality than endoscopic+drug (HR 0.374, 95% CI 0.166 to 0.845, p=0.0181). The incidence of HE was not different between patients treated with pTIPS and endoscopic+drug (38.2% vs 38.7%, p=0.9721), even in patients with HE at admission (56.4% vs 58.7%, p=0.4594). Age >56, shock, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score >15, endoscopic+drug treatment and HE at admission were independent factors of death in high-risk patients. CONCLUSION: pTIPS is associated with better survival than endoscopic treatment in high-risk patients with cirrhosis with variceal bleeding displaying HE at admission.

Incidence and factors predictive of recurrent thrombosis in people with non-cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Clinical guidelines do not recommend long-term anticoagulation in non-cirrhotic splanchnic vein thrombosis (NC-SVT) without underlying thrombophilia because it is assumed that there is a very low risk of recurrent thrombosis (RT). Our first aim was to describe the incidence of RT in people with NC-SVT without an indication for long-term anticoagulation. The second aim was to identify RT risk factors and afterwards verify them in a validation cohort. METHODS: This is a multicentre, retrospective observational study evaluating risk factors for RT in 64 people with NC-SVT of idiopathic/local factor aetiology. In a subgroup of 48 individuals, the potential value of additional thrombophilic parameters to predict RT was analysed. Findings were validated in 70 individuals with idiopathic/local factor NC-SVT. RESULTS: Of the 64 participants in the training cohort, 17 (26%) presented splanchnic and/or extrasplanchnic RT (overall-RT) during follow-up (cumulative incidence: 2, 10, 19, and 34% at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years, respectively). In addition, 53% of people with splanchnic RT were asymptomatic. No clinical or biochemical parameters predicted overall-RT. However, in the 48 people with an additional comprehensive thrombophilic study, factor VIII ≥150% was the only independent factor predicting overall-RT (hazard ratio 7.10, 95% CI 2.17-23.17, p <0.01). In the validation cohort, 19 individuals (27%) presented overall-RT, and it was also independently predicted by factor VIII >150% (hazard ratio 3.71, 95% CI 1.31-10.5, p <0.01). The predictive value of factor VIII was confirmed in both people with idiopathic/local factor aetiology associated NC-SVT. CONCLUSIONS: People with idiopathic/local factor NC-SVT are at risk of overall-RT. Splanchnic RT can be asymptomatic and requires screening for its detection. Values of factor VIII ≥150% may help identify individuals at high risk of overall-RT who could benefit from long-term anticoagulation. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: People with idiopathic/isolated local factor non-cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis were previously thought to be at minimal risk of re-thrombosis and therefore did not receive scheduled follow-up. The results of this study are of special interest for hepatologists treating people with non-cirrhotic splanchnic thrombosis, as they show a 25% incidence of re-thrombosis and support the close follow-up of people with factor VIII >150% to ensure the early identification of new thrombotic events.

Increased risk of MAFLD and Liver Fibrosis in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Independent of Classic Metabolic Risk Factors.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is conflicting evidence regarding the prevalence of and risk factors for metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to determine MAFLD prevalence and risk factors in IBD patients. METHODS: Cross-sectional, case-control study included all consecutive IBD patients treated at 2 different university hospitals. Controls were subjects randomly selected from the general population and matched by age, sex, type 2 diabetes status, and body mass index in a 1:2 ratio. MAFLD was confirmed by controlled attenuation parameter. Liver biopsies were collected when MAFLD with significant liver fibrosis was suspected. In addition, age- and fibrosis stage-paired non-IBD patients with biopsy-proven MAFLD served as a secondary control group. RESULTS: Eight hundred thirty-one IBD patients and 1718 controls were included. The prevalence of MAFLD and advanced liver fibrosis (transient elastography ≥9.7 kPa) was 42.00% and 9.50%, respectively, in IBD patients and 32.77% and 2.31%, respectively, in the general population (P < .001). A diagnosis of IBD was an independent predictor of MAFLD (adjusted odds ratio, 1.99; P < .001) and an independent risk factor for advanced liver fibrosis (adjusted odds ratio, 5.55; P < .001). Liver biopsies were obtained from 40 IBD patients; MAFLD was confirmed in all cases, and fibrosis of any degree was confirmed in 25 of 40 cases (62.5%). Body mass index and type 2 diabetes prevalence were significantly lower in IBD-MAFLD patients than in severity-paired patients with biopsy-proven MAFLD. CONCLUSIONS: MAFLD and liver fibrosis are particularly prevalent in IBD patients, regardless of the influence of classic metabolic risk factors.

Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate Reduces the Severity of COVID-19 in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: HIV-positive patients on tenofovir hydroxyl fumarate (TDF)/emtricitabine have a lower risk of COVID-19 and hospitalization than those given other treatments. Our aim was to analyze the severity of COVID-19 in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) on TDF or entecavir (ETV). METHODS: Spanish hospital databases (n = 28) including information regarding adult CHB patients on TDF or ETV for the period February 1st to November 30th 2020 were searched for COVID-19, defined as a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction, and for severe COVID-19. RESULTS: Of 4736 patients, 117 had COVID-19 (2.5%), 67 on TDF and 50 on ETV. Compared to patients on TDF, those on ETV showed (p < 0.05) greater rates of obesity, diabetes, ischemic cardiopathy, and hypertension. COVID-19 incidence was similar in both groups (2.3 vs. 2.6%). Compared to TDF, patients on ETV more often (p < 0.01) had severe COVID-19 (36 vs. 6%), required intensive care unit (ICU) (10% vs. 0) or ventilatory support (20 vs. 3%), were hospitalized for longer (10.8 ± 19 vs. 3.1 ± 7 days) or died (10 vs. 1.5%, p = 0.08). In an IPTW propensity score analysis adjusted for age, sex, obesity, comorbidities, and fibrosis stage, TDF was associated with a sixfold reduction in severe COVID-19 risk (adjusted-IPTW-OR 0.17, 95%CI 0.04-0.67, p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Compared to ETV, TDF seems to play a protective role in CHB patients with SARS-CoV-2 whereby the risk of severe COVID-19 is lowered.

Current state of telemedicine in the field of Hepatology in Spain: challenges, threats and next steps to follow for an intelligent digital transformation.

Medicine and technology are constantly evolving. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the development of digitalization in the health sector and specifically of telemedicine. Through a structured bibliographic review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) methodology, in this study, the concepts related to telemedicine, its application and the legal regulatory context are defined. With this information, some recommendations and codes of good practice are proposed for their effective implementation in the field of Hepatology.

Oportunistic diagnosis based on age and hepatitis C virus clearance: an essential step to improve the overall health of the liver.

Back in January 2022, an EASL-Lancet Commission on the impact of liver disorders in the European region commissioned by the WHO demonstrated that this condition is, actually, the second leading cause of loss of labor years in Europe after ischemic heart disease (1). This is a very relevant piece of information since this is something that is going to impact the new generations of Europeans unless a significant change is made in public health policies. Despite the advances made over the last few years in hepatitis C virus clearance-understood as a significant reduction of morbidity and mortality associated with Hepatitis B and C viruses-there are still challenges ahead to improve liver health due to the high use of alcohol, and the inseparable triad obesity / diabetes mellitus / metabolic associated fatty liver disease. Also, access to healthcare for several population groups at risk of presenting higher rates of liver disease has become a problem.

Recommendations for the integral diagnosis of chronic viral hepatitis in a single analytical extraction. / Recomendaciones para el diagnóstico integral de las hepatitis virales crónicas en una única extracción analítica.

The Spanish Society of Digestive Pathology (SEPD), the Spanish Association for the Study of the Liver (AEEH), the Spanish Society of Infections and Clinical Microbiology (SEIMC) and its Viral Hepatitis Study Group (GEHEP), and with the endorsement of the Alliance for the Elimination of Viral Hepatitis in Spain (AEHVE), have agreed on a document to carry out a comprehensive diagnosis of viral hepatitis (B, C and D), from a single blood sample; that is, a comprehensive diagnosis, in the hospital and/or at the point of care of the patient. We propose an algorithm, so that the positive result in a viral hepatitis serology (B, C and D), as well as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), would trigger the analysis of the rest of the virus, including the viral load when necessary, in the same blood draw. In addition, we make two additional recommendations. First, the need to rule out a previous hepatitis A virus (VHA) infection, to proceed with its vaccination in cases where IgG-type studies against this virus are negative and the vaccine is indicated. Second, the determination of the HIV serology. Finally, in case of a positive result for any of the viruses analyzed, there must be an automated alerts and initiate epidemiological monitoring.

Hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after direct-acting antiviral therapy: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The benefit of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) against HCV following successful treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. This meta-analysis of individual patient data assessed HCC recurrence risk following DAA administration. DESIGN: We pooled the data of 977 consecutive patients from 21 studies of HCV-related cirrhosis and HCC, who achieved complete radiological response after surgical/locoregional treatments and received DAAs (DAA group). Recurrence or death risk was expressed as HCC recurrence or death per 100 person-years (100PY). Propensity score-matched patients from the ITA.LI.CA. cohort (n=328) served as DAA-unexposed controls (no-DAA group). Risk factors for HCC recurrence were identified using random-effects Poisson. RESULTS: Recurrence rate and death risk per 100PY in DAA-treated patients were 20 (95% CI 13.9 to 29.8, I2=74.6%) and 5.7 (2.5 to 15.3, I2=54.3), respectively. Predictive factors for recurrence were alpha-fetoprotein logarithm (relative risk (RR)=1.11, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.19; p=0.01, per 1 log of ng/mL), HCC recurrence history pre-DAA initiation (RR=1.11, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.16; p<0.001), performance status (2 vs 0, RR=4.35, 95% CI 1.54 to 11.11; 2 vs 1, RR=3.7, 95% CI 1.3 to 11.11; p=0.01) and tumour burden pre-HCC treatment (multifocal vs solitary nodule, RR=1.75, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.43; p<0.001). No significant difference was observed in RR between the DAA-exposed and DAA-unexposed groups in propensity score-matched patients (RR=0.64, 95% CI 0.37 to 1.1; p=0.1). CONCLUSION: Effects of DAA exposure on HCC recurrence risk remain inconclusive. Active clinical and radiological follow-up of patients with HCC after HCV eradication with DAA is justified.

An artificial intelligence model to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several models have recently been developed to predict risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Our aims were to develop and validate an artificial intelligence-assisted prediction model of HCC risk. METHODS: Using a gradient-boosting machine (GBM) algorithm, a model was developed using 6,051 patients with CHB who received entecavir or tenofovir therapy from 4 hospitals in Korea. Two external validation cohorts were independently established: Korean (5,817 patients from 14 Korean centers) and Caucasian (1,640 from 11 Western centers) PAGE-B cohorts. The primary outcome was HCC development. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort and the 2 validation cohorts, cirrhosis was present in 26.9%-50.2% of patients at baseline. A model using 10 parameters at baseline was derived and showed good predictive performance (c-index 0.79). This model showed significantly better discrimination than previous models (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, REACH-B, and CU-HCC) in both the Korean (c-index 0.79 vs. 0.64-0.74; all p <0.001) and Caucasian validation cohorts (c-index 0.81 vs. 0.57-0.79; all p <0.05 except modified PAGE-B, p = 0.42). A calibration plot showed a satisfactory calibration function. When the patients were grouped into 4 risk groups, the minimal-risk group (11.2% of the Korean cohort and 8.8% of the Caucasian cohort) had a less than 0.5% risk of HCC during 8 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This GBM-based model provides the best predictive power for HCC risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with CHB treated with entecavir or tenofovir. LAY SUMMARY: Risk scores have been developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B. We developed and validated a new risk prediction model using machine learning algorithms in 13,508 antiviral-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B. Our new model, based on 10 common baseline characteristics, demonstrated superior performance in risk stratification compared with previous risk scores. This model also identified a group of patients at minimal risk of developing HCC, who could be indicated for less intensive HCC surveillance.

Impact of HBeAg on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk During Oral Antiviral Treatment in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antiviral treatment from hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive status may attenuate the integration of hepatitis B virus DNA into the host genome causing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the impact of HBeAg status at the onset of antiviral treatment on the risk of HCC. METHODS: The incidence of HCC was evaluated in Korean patients with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir in either HBeAg-positive or HBeAg-negative phase. The results in the Korean cohort were validated in a Caucasian PAGE-B cohort. RESULTS: A total of 9143 Korean patients (mean age, 49.2 years) were included: 49.1% were HBeAg-positive and 49.2% had cirrhosis. During follow-up (median, 5.1 years), 916 patients (10.0%) developed HCC. Baseline HBeAg positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. However, in the non-cirrhotic subcohort, HBeAg positivity was independently associated with a lower risk of HCC in multivariable (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26-0.66), propensity score-matching (aHR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.28-0.76), and inverse probability weighting analyses (aHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.28-0.70). In the Caucasian cohort (n = 719; mean age, 51.8 years; HBeAg-positive, 20.3%; cirrhosis, 34.8%), HBeAg-positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC either in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. In the non-cirrhotic subcohort, none of the HBeAg-positive group developed HCC, although the difference failed to reach statistical significance (aHR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.00-1.67). CONCLUSIONS: This multinational cohort study implies that HBeAg positivity at the onset of antiviral treatment seems to be an independent factor associated with a lower risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B without cirrhosis, but not in those with cirrhosis.

Knowledge of liver fibrosis stage among adults with NAFLD/NASH improves adherence to lifestyle changes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Though lifestyle interventions can reverse disease progression in people with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease/non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NAFLD/NASH), unawareness about disease severity might compromise behavioural changes. Data from this first international cross-sectional survey of individuals with NAFLD/NASH were used to identify correlates of both unawareness about fibrosis stage and its association with adherence to lifestyle adjustments. METHODS: Adults with NAFLD/NASH registered on the platform Carenity were invited to participate in an online 20-min, six-section survey in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom to describe their experience with NAFLD/NASH and its care (N = 1411). Weighted binary and multinomial logistic regressions were performed to estimate the effect of explanatory variables on unawareness of fibrosis stage and poor adherence to lifestyle changes respectively. RESULTS: In the study group, 15.5% had obesity and 59.2% did not know their fibrosis stage. After multiple adjustments, individuals with a body mass index (BMI) ≥35 were over twice as likely to not know their fibrosis stage. People with a BMI >30 had a threefold higher risk of having poor adherence to lifestyle changes. Unawareness about fibrosis stage was also significantly associated with poor adherence to lifestyle adjustments. CONCLUSIONS: As fibrosis stage is becoming the main predictor of NAFLD progression, improving patient-provider communication-especially for people with obesity-about liver fibrosis stage, its associated risks and how to mitigate them, is needed. Training for healthcare professionals and promoting patient educational programmes to support behaviour changes should also be included in the liver health agenda.

A nomogram as an indirect method to identify sarcopenia in patients with liver cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Sarcopenia is one of the most common complications of cirrhosis, associated with an increased risk of morbidity and mortality. It is therefore necessary to perform a proper nutritional evaluation in these patients. Although CT scans are the gold standard for diagnosing sarcopenia, they are not widely used in clinical practice. There is thus a need to find indirect methods for identifying sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study consecutively including all cirrhotic outpatients who underwent CT scans. RESULTS: A total of 174 patients met all the inclusion criteria and none of exclusion criteria. Fifty-five patients (31.6%) showed sarcopenia on CT scans. Multivariate analysis revealed that the factors that were independently associated with the presence of sarcopenia on CT scans were: male sex (OR 11.27, 95% CI 3.53-35.95; p<0.001), lower body mass index (BMI) (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.11-1.34; p<0.001) and lower phase angle by bioelectrical impedance analysis (OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.74-4.6; p<0.001). With the variables identified from the multivariate study we developed a nomogram that allows ruling out the presence of sarcopenia. Our model rules out sarcopenia with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.8. The cutoff point of the probability to rule out sarcopenia was 0.6 (sensitivity 85%, specificity 73%, Youden index 0.58, PPV 82.5% and NPV 91.3%). CONCLUSION: Since CT scans involve exposure to radiation and their availability is limited, we propose using this nomogram as an indirect method to rule out sarcopenia in cirrhotic patients.

Bacterial infections in patients with acute variceal bleeding in the era of antibiotic prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antibiotic prophylaxis reduces the risk of infection and mortality in patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (AVB). This study examines the incidence of, and risk factors for, bacterial infections during hospitalization in patients with AVB on antibiotic prophylaxis. METHODS: A post hoc analysis was performed using the database of an international, multicenter, observational study designed to examine the role of pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts in patients with cirrhosis and AVB. Data were collected on patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for AVB (n = 2,138) from a prospective cohort (October 2013-May 2015) at 34 referral centers, and a retrospective cohort (October 2011-September 2013) at 19 of these centers. The primary outcome was incidence of bacterial infection during hospitalization. RESULTS: A total of 1,656 patients out of 1,770 (93.6%) received antibiotic prophylaxis; third-generation cephalosporins (76.2%) and quinolones (19.0%) were used most frequently. Of the patients on antibiotic prophylaxis, 320 patients developed bacterial infection during hospitalization. Respiratory infection accounted for 43.6% of infections and for 49.7% of infected patients, and occurred early after admission (median 3 days, IQR 1-6). On multivariate analysis, respiratory infection was independently associated with Child-Pugh C (odds ratio [OR] 3.1; 95% CI 1.4-6.7), grade III-IV encephalopathy (OR 2.8; 95% CI 1.8-4.4), orotracheal intubation for endoscopy (OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.8-3.8), nasogastric tube placement (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2-2.4) or esophageal balloon tamponade (OR 2.4; 95% CI 1.2-4.9). CONCLUSION: Bacterial infections develop in almost one-fifth of patients with AVB despite antibiotic prophylaxis. Respiratory infection is the most frequent, is an early event after admission, and is associated with advanced liver failure, severe hepatic encephalopathy and use of nasogastric tube, orotracheal intubation for endoscopy or esophageal balloon tamponade. LAY SUMMARY: Bacterial infections develop during hospitalization in close to 20% of patients with acute variceal bleeding despite antibiotic prophylaxis. Respiratory bacterial infections are the most frequent and occur early after admission. Respiratory infection is associated with advanced liver disease, severe hepatic encephalopathy and a need for a nasogastric tube, orotracheal intubation for endoscopy or esophageal balloon tamponade.

Adding Branched-Chain Amino Acids to an Enhanced Standard-of-Care Treatment Improves Muscle Mass of Cirrhotic Patients With Sarcopenia: A Placebo-Controlled Trial.

INTRODUCTION: The effect of branched-chain amino acid (BCAA) supplementation on muscle mass in patients with cirrhosis and sarcopenia is unknown. METHODS: This is a pilot, prospective, randomized, and double-blind study of a cohort of 32 patients with cirrhosis and sarcopenia diagnosed by computed tomography scan who underwent a nutritional and physical activity intervention for 12 weeks. They were divided into 2 groups (placebo: 17 patients; BCAA: 15 patients). The study protocol was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04073693). RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were similar in both groups. After treatment, only the BCAA group presented a significant improvement in muscle mass (43.7 vs 46 cm2/m2; P = 0.023). Seventeen patients (63%) presented improvement in muscle mass overall, which was more frequent in the BCAA group (83.3 vs 46.7%; P = 0.056). Regarding frailty, there was a significant improvement in the Liver Frailty Index in the global cohort (n = 32) after the 12 weeks (4.2 vs 3.9; P < 0.001). This difference was significant in both groups: in the placebo group (4.2 vs 3.8; P < 0.001) and in the BCAA group (4.2 vs 3.9; P < 0.001). After treatment, the BCAA group had a higher increase in zinc levels than the placebo group (Δzinc: 12.3 vs 5.5; P = 0.026). In addition, there was a trend for greater improvement of albumin levels in the BCAA group (Δalbumin: 0.19 vs 0.04; P = 0.091). DISCUSSION: BCAA supplementation improves muscle mass in cirrhotic patients with sarcopenia.