Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date.

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)-dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

Human Papillomavirus Prevalence and Herd Immunity after Introduction of Vaccination Program, Scotland, 2009-2013.

In 2008, a national human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization program using a bivalent vaccine against HPV types 16 and 18 was implemented in Scotland along with a national surveillance program designed to determine the longitudinal effects of vaccination on HPV infection at the population level. Each year during 2009-2013, the surveillance program conducted HPV testing on a proportion of liquid-based cytology samples from women undergoing their first cervical screening test for precancerous cervical disease. By linking vaccination, cervical screening, and HPV testing data, over the study period we found a decline in HPV types 16 and 18, significant decreases in HPV types 31, 33, and 45 (suggesting cross-protection), and a nonsignificant increase in HPV 51. In addition, among nonvaccinated women, HPV types 16 and 18 infections were significantly lower in 2013 than in 2009. Our results preliminarily indicate herd immunity and sustained effectiveness of the bivalent vaccine on virologic outcomes at the population level.

Population analysis of Legionella pneumophila reveals a basis for resistance to complement-mediated killing.

Legionella pneumophila is the most common cause of the severe respiratory infection known as Legionnaires' disease. However, the microorganism is typically a symbiont of free-living amoeba, and our understanding of the bacterial factors that determine human pathogenicity is limited. Here we carried out a population genomic study of 902 L. pneumophila isolates from human clinical and environmental samples to examine their genetic diversity, global distribution and the basis for human pathogenicity. We find that the capacity for human disease is representative of the breadth of species diversity although some clones are more commonly associated with clinical infections. We identified a single gene (lag-1) to be most strongly associated with clinical isolates. lag-1, which encodes an O-acetyltransferase for lipopolysaccharide modification, has been distributed horizontally across all major phylogenetic clades of L. pneumophila by frequent recent recombination events. The gene confers resistance to complement-mediated killing in human serum by inhibiting deposition of classical pathway molecules on the bacterial surface. Furthermore, acquisition of lag-1 inhibits complement-dependent phagocytosis by human neutrophils, and promoted survival in a mouse model of pulmonary legionellosis. Thus, our results reveal L. pneumophila genetic traits linked to disease and provide a molecular basis for resistance to complement-mediated killing.

The impact of bivalent HPV vaccine on cervical intraepithelial neoplasia by deprivation in Scotland: reducing the gap.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer disproportionately affects women from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. A human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme was introduced in Scotland in 2008 with uptake being lower and inequitable in a catch-up cohort run for the first three years of the programme compared with the routine programme. The socioeconomic differences in vaccine uptake have the potential to further increase the inequality gap in regards to cervical disease. METHODS: Vaccination status was linked to demographic, cytological and colposcopic data, which are routinely collected by the Scottish HPV surveillance system. Incidence rates and relative risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1, 2 and 3 in unvaccinated and vaccinated women were stratified by birth year and deprivation status using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Women who received three doses of HPV vaccine have significantly decreased risk of CIN 1, 2 and 3. Vaccine effectiveness was greater in those women from the most deprived backgrounds against CIN 2 and 3 lesions. Compared with the most deprived, unvaccinated women, the relative risk of CIN 3 in fully vaccinated women in the same deprivation group was 0.29 (95% CI 0.2 to 0.43) compared with 0.62 (95% CI 0.4 to 0.97) in vaccinated women in the least-deprived group. CONCLUSIONS: The HPV vaccine is associated with significant reductions in both low-grade and high-grade CIN for all deprivation categories. However, the effect on high-grade disease was most profound in the most-deprived women. These data are welcoming and allay the concern that inequalities in cervical cancer may persist or increase following the introduction of the vaccine in Scotland.

Changes in the prevalence of human papillomavirus following a national bivalent human papillomavirus vaccination programme in Scotland: a 7-year cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: On Sept 1, 2008, Scotland launched routine vaccination for human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18, targeted at 12-13-year-old girls, of whom 92·4% were fully vaccinated in 2008-09. In this study, we report on vaccine effectiveness of the bivalent vaccine in these vaccinated women who attended for routine cervical screening at age 20-21 years. METHODS: In this 7-year cross-sectional study (covering birth cohorts 1988-1995), we sampled approximately 1000 samples per year from those attending cervical screening at age 20-21 years and tested each for HPV. By linkage to vaccination records we ascertained prevalence by birth cohort and vaccination status. Estimates of vaccine effectiveness for HPV types 16 and 18, HPV types 31, 33, and 45, other high-risk types, and any HPV were calculated using logistic regression. FINDINGS: In total, 8584 samples were HPV genotyped. Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 reduced substantially from 30·0% (95% CI 26·9-33·1) in the 1988 cohort to 4·5% (3·5-5·7) in the 1995 cohort, giving a vaccine effectiveness of 89·1% (85·1-92·3) for those vaccinated at age 12-13 years. All cross-protective types showed significant vaccine effectiveness (HPV type 31, 93·8% [95% CI 83·8-98·5]; HPV type 33, 79·1% [64·2-89·0]; HPV type 45, 82·6% [61·5-93·9]). Unvaccinated individuals born in 1995 had a reduced odds of HPV types 16 and 18 infection compared with those born in 1988 (adjusted odds ratio 0·13 [95% CI 0·06-0·28]) and reduced odds of HPV types 31, 33, and 45 (odds ratio 0·45 [0·23-0·89]). INTERPRETATION: Bivalent vaccination has led to a startling reduction in vaccine and cross-protective HPV types 7 years after vaccination. There is also evidence of herd protection against the vaccine-specific and cross-protective types in unvaccinated individuals born in 1995. These findings should be considered in cost-effectiveness models informing vaccine choice and models to shape the future of cervical screening programmes. FUNDING: Scottish Government and Chief Scientists Office.