Enhanced viral infectivity and reduced interferon production are associated with high pathogenicity for influenza viruses.

Epidemiological and clinical evidence indicates that humans infected with the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus and highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses often displayed severe lung pathology. High viral load and extensive infiltration of macrophages are the hallmarks of highly pathogenic (HP) influenza viral infections. However, it remains unclear what biological mechanisms primarily determine the observed difference in the kinetics of viral load and macrophages between HP and low pathogenic (LP) viral infections, and how the mechanistic differences are associated with viral pathogenicity. In this study, we develop a mathematical model of viral dynamics that includes the dynamics of different macrophage populations and interferon. We fit the model to in vivo kinetic data of viral load and macrophage level from BALB/c mice infected with an HP or LP strain of H1N1/H5N1 virus to estimate model parameters using Bayesian inference. Our primary finding is that HP viruses have a higher viral infection rate, a lower interferon production rate and a lower macrophage recruitment rate compared to LP viruses, which are strongly associated with more severe tissue damage (quantified by a higher percentage of epithelial cell loss). We also quantify the relative contribution of macrophages to viral clearance and find that macrophages do not play a dominant role in the direct clearance of free viruses although their role in mediating immune responses such as interferon production is crucial. Our work provides new insight into the mechanisms that convey the observed difference in viral and macrophage kinetics between HP and LP infections and establishes an improved model-fitting framework to enhance the analysis of new data on viral pathogenicity.

Parasite-Host Dynamics throughout Antimalarial Drug Development Stages Complicate the Translation of Parasite Clearance.

Ensuring continued success against malaria depends on a pipeline of new antimalarials. Antimalarial drug development utilizes preclinical murine and experimental human malaria infection studies to evaluate drug efficacy. A sequential approach is typically adapted, with results from each stage informing the design of the next stage of development. The validity of this approach depends on confidence that results from murine malarial studies predict the outcome of clinical trials in humans. Parasite clearance rates following treatment are key parameters of drug efficacy. To investigate the validity of forward predictions, we developed a suite of mathematical models to capture parasite growth and drug clearance along the drug development pathway and estimated parasite clearance rates. When comparing the three infection experiments, we identified different relationships of parasite clearance with dose and different maximum parasite clearance rates. In Plasmodium berghei-NMRI mouse infections, we estimated a maximum parasite clearance rate of 0.2 (1/h); in Plasmodium falciparum-SCID mouse infections, 0.05 (1/h); and in human volunteer infection studies with P. falciparum, we found a maximum parasite clearance rate of 0.12 (1/h) and 0.18 (1/h) after treatment with OZ439 and MMV048, respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed that host-parasite driven processes account for up to 25% of variance in parasite clearance for medium-high doses of antimalarials. Although there are limitations in translating parasite clearance rates across these experiments, they provide insight into characterizing key parameters of drug action and dose response and assist in decision-making regarding dosage for further drug development.

Development and Validation of an In Silico Decision Tool To Guide Optimization of Intravenous Artesunate Dosing Regimens for Severe Falciparum Malaria Patients.

Most deaths from severe falciparum malaria occur within 24 h of presentation to a hospital. Intravenous (i.v.) artesunate is the first-line treatment for severe falciparum malaria, but its efficacy may be compromised by delayed parasitological responses. In patients with severe malaria, the life-saving benefit of the artemisinin derivatives is their ability to clear circulating parasites rapidly, before they can sequester and obstruct the microcirculation. To evaluate the dosing of i.v. artesunate for the treatment of artemisinin-sensitive and reduced ring stage sensitivity to artemisinin severe falciparum malaria infections, Bayesian pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling of data from 94 patients with severe malaria (80 children from Africa and 14 adults from Southeast Asia) was performed. Assuming that delayed parasite clearance reflects a loss of ring stage sensitivity to artemisinin derivatives, the median (95% credible interval) percentage of patients clearing ≥99% of parasites within 24 h (PC24≥99%) for standard (2.4 mg/kg body weight i.v. artesunate at 0 and 12 h) and simplified (4 mg/kg i.v. artesunate at 0 h) regimens was 65% (52.5% to 74.5%) versus 44% (25% to 61.5%) for adults, 62% (51.5% to 74.5%) versus 39% (20.5% to 58.5%) for larger children (≥20 kg), and 60% (48.5% to 70%) versus 36% (20% to 53.5%) for smaller children (<20 kg). The upper limit of the credible intervals for all regimens was below a PC24≥99% of 80%, a threshold achieved on average in clinical studies of severe falciparum malaria infections. In severe falciparum malaria caused by parasites with reduced ring stage susceptibility to artemisinin, parasite clearance is predicted to be slower with both the currently recommended and proposed simplified i.v. artesunate dosing regimens.

Modelling within-host macrophage dynamics in influenza virus infection.

Human respiratory disease associated with influenza virus infection is of significant public health concern. Macrophages, as part of the front line of host innate cellular defence, have been shown to play an important role in controlling viral replication. However, fatal outcomes of infection, as evidenced in patients infected with highly pathogenic viral strains, are often associated with prompt activation and excessive accumulation of macrophages. Activated macrophages can produce a large amount of pro-inflammatory cytokines, which leads to severe symptoms and at times death. However, the mechanism for rapid activation and excessive accumulation of macrophages during infection remains unclear. It has been suggested that the phenomena may arise from complex interactions between macrophages and influenza virus. In this work, we develop a novel mathematical model to study the relationship between the level of macrophage activation and the level of viral load in influenza infection. Our model combines a dynamic model of viral infection, a dynamic model of macrophages and the essential interactions between the virus and macrophages. Our model predicts that the level of macrophage activation can be negatively correlated with the level of viral load when viral infectivity is sufficiently high. We further identify that temporary depletion of resting macrophages in response to viral infection is a major driver in our model for the negative relationship between the level of macrophage activation and viral load, providing new insight into the mechanisms that regulate macrophage activation. Our model serves as a framework to study the complex dynamics of virus-macrophage interactions and provides a mechanistic explanation for existing experimental observations, contributing to an enhanced understanding of the role of macrophages in influenza viral infection.

Predicting the Outcomes of New Short-Course Regimens for Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Using Intrahost and Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Modeling.

Short-course regimens for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are urgently needed. Limited data suggest that the new drug bedaquiline (BDQ) may have the potential to shorten MDR-TB treatment to less than 6 months when used in conjunction with standard anti-TB drugs. However, the feasibility of BDQ in shortening MDR-TB treatment duration remains to be established. Mathematical modeling provides a platform to investigate different treatment regimens and predict their efficacy. We developed a mathematical model to capture the immune response to TB inside a human host environment. This model was then combined with a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model to simulate various short-course BDQ-containing regimens. Our modeling suggests that BDQ could reduce MDR-TB treatment duration to just 18 weeks (4 months) while still maintaining a very high treatment success rate (100% for daily BDQ for 2 weeks, or 95% for daily BDQ for 1 week during the intensive phase). The estimated time to bacterial clearance of these regimens ranges from 27 to 33 days. Our findings provide the justification for empirical evaluation of short-course BDQ-containing regimens. If short-course BDQ-containing regimens are found to improve outcomes, then we anticipate clear cost savings and a subsequent improvement in the efficiency of national TB programs.

Investigating the Efficacy of Triple Artemisinin-Based Combination Therapies for Treating Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Patients Using Mathematical Modeling.

The first line treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria is artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), which consists of an artemisinin derivative coadministered with a longer-acting partner drug. However, the spread of Plasmodium falciparum resistant to both artemisinin and its partner drugs poses a major global threat to malaria control activities. Novel strategies are needed to retard and reverse the spread of these resistant parasites. One such strategy is triple artemisinin-based combination therapy (TACT). We developed a mechanistic within-host mathematical model to investigate the efficacy of a TACT (dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine-mefloquine [DHA-PPQ-MQ]) for use in South-East Asia, where DHA and PPQ resistance are now increasingly prevalent. Comprehensive model simulations were used to explore the degree to which the underlying resistance influences the parasitological outcomes. The effect of MQ dosing on the efficacy of TACT was quantified at various degrees of DHA and PPQ resistance. To incorporate interactions between drugs, a novel model is presented for the combined effect of DHA-PPQ-MQ, which illustrates how the interactions can influence treatment efficacy. When combined with a standard regimen of DHA and PPQ, the administration of three 6.7-mg/kg doses of MQ was sufficient to achieve parasitological efficacy greater than that currently recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. As a result, three 8.3-mg/kg doses of MQ, the current WHO-recommended dosing regimen for MQ, combined with DHA-PPQ, has the potential to produce high cure rates in regions where resistance to DHA-PPQ has emerged.

In Silico Investigation of the Decline in Clinical Efficacy of Artemisinin Combination Therapies Due to Increasing Artemisinin and Partner Drug Resistance.

Antimalarial treatment currently relies on an artemisinin derivative and a longer-acting partner drug. With the emergence of resistance to the artemisinin derivatives and the potential pressure this exerts on the partner drugs, the impact of resistance to each drug on efficacy needs to be investigated. An in silico exploration of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and mefloquine-artesunate, two artemisinin-based combination therapies that are commonly used in Southeast Asia, was performed. The percentage of treatment failures was simulated from a within-host pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) model, assuming that parasites developed increasing levels of (i) artemisinin derivative resistance or (ii) concomitant resistance to both the artemisinin derivative and the partner drug. Because the exact nature of how resistant Plasmodium falciparum parasites respond to treatment is unknown, we examined the impact on treatment failure rates of artemisinin resistance that (i) reduced the maximal killing rate, (ii) increased the concentration of drug required for 50% killing, or (iii) shortened the window of parasite stages that were susceptible to artemisinin derivatives until the drugs had no effect on the ring stages. The loss of the ring-stage activity of the artemisinin derivative caused the greatest increase in the treatment failure rate, and this result held irrespective of whether partner drug resistance was assumed to be present or not. To capture the uncertainty regarding how artemisinin derivative and partner drug resistance affects the assumed concentration-killing effect relationship, a variety of changes to this relationship should be considered when using within-host PKPD models to simulate clinical outcomes to guide treatment strategies for resistant infections.

Mapping Interpuff Interval Distribution to the Properties of Inositol Trisphosphate Receptors.

Tightly clustered inositol trisphosphate receptors (IP3Rs) control localized Ca2+ liberation from the endoplasmic reticulum to generate repetitive Ca2+ puffs. Distributions of the interpuff interval (IPI), i.e., the waiting time between successive puffs, are found to be well characterized by a probability density function involving only two parameters, λ and ξ, which represent the basal rate of puff generation and the recovery rate from refractoriness, respectively. However, how the two parameters depend on the kinetic parameters of single IP3Rs in a cluster is still unclear. In this article, using a stochastic puff model and a single-channel data-based IP3R model, we establish the dependencies of λ and ξ on two important IP3R model parameters, IP3 concentration ([IP3]) and the recovery rate from Ca2+ inhibition (rlow). By varying [IP3] and rlow in physiologically plausible ranges, we find that the ξ-λ plane is comprised of only two disjoint regions, a biologically impermissible region and a region where each parameter set (ξ, λ) can be caused by using two different combinations of [IP3] and rlow. The two combinations utilize very different mechanisms to maintain the same IPI distribution, and the mechanistic difference provides a way of identifying IP3R kinetic parameters by observing properties of the IPI.

A Dynamic Stress Model Explains the Delayed Drug Effect in Artemisinin Treatment of Plasmodium falciparum.

Artemisinin resistance constitutes a major threat to the continued success of control programs for malaria, particularly in light of developing resistance to partner drugs. Improving our understanding of how artemisinin-based drugs act and how resistance manifests is essential for the optimization of dosing regimens and the development of strategies to prolong the life span of current first-line treatment options. Recent short-drug-pulse in vitro experiments have shown that the parasite killing rate depends not only on drug concentration but also the exposure time, challenging the standard pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) paradigm in which the killing rate depends only on drug concentration. Here, we introduce a dynamic stress model of parasite killing and show through application to 3D7 laboratory strain viability data that the inclusion of a time-dependent parasite stress response dramatically improves the model's explanatory power compared to that of a traditional PK-PD model. Our model demonstrates that the previously reported hypersensitivity of early-ring-stage parasites of the 3D7 strain to dihydroartemisinin compared to other parasite stages is due primarily to a faster development of stress rather than a higher maximum achievable killing rate. We also perform in vivo simulations using the dynamic stress model and demonstrate that the complex temporal features of artemisinin action observed in vitro have a significant impact on predictions for in vivo parasite clearance. Given the important role that PK-PD models play in the design of clinical trials for the evaluation of alternative drug dosing regimens, our novel model will contribute to the further development and improvement of antimalarial therapies.

Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host.

The cellular adaptive immune response plays a key role in resolving influenza infection. Experiments where individuals are successively infected with different strains within a short timeframe provide insight into the underlying viral dynamics and the role of a cross-reactive immune response in resolving an acute infection. We construct a mathematical model of within-host influenza viral dynamics including three possible factors which determine the strength of the cross-reactive cellular adaptive immune response: the initial naive T cell number, the avidity of the interaction between T cells and the epitopes presented by infected cells, and the epitope abundance per infected cell. Our model explains the experimentally observed shortening of a second infection when cross-reactivity is present, and shows that memory in the cellular adaptive immune response is necessary to protect against a second infection.

A mechanistic model quantifies artemisinin-induced parasite growth retardation in blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum infection.

Falciparum malaria is a major parasitic disease causing widespread morbidity and mortality globally. Artemisinin derivatives-the most effective and widely-used antimalarials that have helped reduce the burden of malaria by 60% in some areas over the past decade-have recently been found to induce growth retardation of blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum when applied at clinically relevant concentrations. To date, no model has been designed to quantify the growth retardation effect and to predict the influence of this property on in vivo parasite killing. Here we introduce a mechanistic model of parasite growth from the ring to trophozoite stage of the parasite's life cycle, and by modelling the level of staining with an RNA-binding dye, we demonstrate that the model is able to reproduce fluorescence distribution data from in vitro experiments using the laboratory 3D7 strain. We quantify the dependence of growth retardation on drug concentration and identify the concentration threshold above which growth retardation is evident. We estimate that the parasite life cycle is prolonged by up to 10 hours. We illustrate that even such a relatively short delay in growth may significantly influence in vivo parasite dynamics, demonstrating the importance of considering growth retardation in the design of optimal artemisinin-based dosing regimens.

Comparison of the Exposure Time Dependence of the Activities of Synthetic Ozonide Antimalarials and Dihydroartemisinin against K13 Wild-Type and Mutant Plasmodium falciparum Strains.

Fully synthetic endoperoxide antimalarials, namely, OZ277 (RBx11160; also known as arterolane) and OZ439 (artefenomel), have been approved for marketing or are currently in clinical development. We undertook an analysis of the kinetics of the in vitro responses of Plasmodium falciparum to the new ozonide antimalarials. For these studies we used a K13 mutant (artemisinin resistant) isolate from a region in Cambodia and a genetically matched (artemisinin sensitive) K13 revertant. We used a pulsed-exposure assay format to interrogate the time dependence of the response. Because the ozonides have physicochemical properties different from those of the artemisinins, assay optimization was required to ensure that the drugs were completely removed following the pulsed exposure. Like that of artemisinins, ozonide activity requires active hemoglobin degradation. Short pulses of the ozonides were less effective than short pulses of dihydroartemisinin; however, when early-ring-stage parasites were exposed to drugs for periods relevant to their in vivo exposure, the ozonide antimalarials were markedly more effective.

Innate Immunity and the Inter-exposure Interval Determine the Dynamics of Secondary Influenza Virus Infection and Explain Observed Viral Hierarchies.

Influenza is an infectious disease that primarily attacks the respiratory system. Innate immunity provides both a very early defense to influenza virus invasion and an effective control of viral growth. Previous modelling studies of virus-innate immune response interactions have focused on infection with a single virus and, while improving our understanding of viral and immune dynamics, have been unable to effectively evaluate the relative feasibility of different hypothesised mechanisms of antiviral immunity. In recent experiments, we have applied consecutive exposures to different virus strains in a ferret model, and demonstrated that viruses differed in their ability to induce a state of temporary immunity or viral interference capable of modifying the infection kinetics of the subsequent exposure. These results imply that virus-induced early immune responses may be responsible for the observed viral hierarchy. Here we introduce and analyse a family of within-host models of re-infection viral kinetics which allow for different viruses to stimulate the innate immune response to different degrees. The proposed models differ in their hypothesised mechanisms of action of the non-specific innate immune response. We compare these alternative models in terms of their abilities to reproduce the re-exposure data. Our results show that 1) a model with viral control mediated solely by a virus-resistant state, as commonly considered in the literature, is not able to reproduce the observed viral hierarchy; 2) the synchronised and desynchronised behaviour of consecutive virus infections is highly dependent upon the interval between primary virus and challenge virus exposures and is consistent with virus-dependent stimulation of the innate immune response. Our study provides the first mechanistic explanation for the recently observed influenza viral hierarchies and demonstrates the importance of understanding the host response to multi-strain viral infections. Re-exposure experiments provide a new paradigm in which to study the immune response to influenza and its role in viral control.

On the extinction probability in models of within-host infection: the role of latency and immunity.

Not every exposure to virus establishes infection in the host; instead, the small amount of initial virus could become extinct due to stochastic events. Different diseases and routes of transmission have a different average number of exposures required to establish an infection. Furthermore, the host immune response and antiviral treatment affect not only the time course of the viral load provided infection occurs, but can prevent infection altogether by increasing the extinction probability. We show that the extinction probability when there is a time-dependent immune response depends on the chosen form of the model-specifically, on the presence or absence of a delay between infection of a cell and production of virus, and the distribution of latent and infectious periods of an infected cell. We hypothesise that experimentally measuring the extinction probability when the virus is introduced at different stages of the immune response, alongside the viral load which is usually measured, will improve parameter estimates and determine the most suitable mathematical form of the model.

Interval Between Infections and Viral Hierarchy Are Determinants of Viral Interference Following Influenza Virus Infection in a Ferret Model.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies suggest that, following infection with influenza virus, there is a short period during which a host experiences a lower susceptibility to infection with other influenza viruses. This viral interference appears to be independent of any antigenic similarities between the viruses. We used the ferret model of human influenza to systematically investigate viral interference. METHODS: Ferrets were first infected then challenged 1-14 days later with pairs of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, influenza A(H3N2), and influenza B viruses circulating in 2009 and 2010. RESULTS: Viral interference was observed when the interval between initiation of primary infection and subsequent challenge was <1 week. This effect was virus specific and occurred between antigenically related and unrelated viruses. Coinfections occurred when 1 or 3 days separated infections. Ongoing shedding from the primary virus infection was associated with viral interference after the secondary challenge. CONCLUSIONS: The interval between infections and the sequential combination of viruses were important determinants of viral interference. The influenza viruses in this study appear to have an ordered hierarchy according to their ability to block or delay infection, which may contribute to the dominance of different viruses often seen in an influenza season.

A deterministic model predicts the properties of stochastic calcium oscillations in airway smooth muscle cells.

The inositol trisphosphate receptor ([Formula: see text]) is one of the most important cellular components responsible for oscillations in the cytoplasmic calcium concentration. Over the past decade, two major questions about the [Formula: see text] have arisen. Firstly, how best should the [Formula: see text] be modeled? In other words, what fundamental properties of the [Formula: see text] allow it to perform its function, and what are their quantitative properties? Secondly, although calcium oscillations are caused by the stochastic opening and closing of small numbers of [Formula: see text], is it possible for a deterministic model to be a reliable predictor of calcium behavior? Here, we answer these two questions, using airway smooth muscle cells (ASMC) as a specific example. Firstly, we show that periodic calcium waves in ASMC, as well as the statistics of calcium puffs in other cell types, can be quantitatively reproduced by a two-state model of the [Formula: see text], and thus the behavior of the [Formula: see text] is essentially determined by its modal structure. The structure within each mode is irrelevant for function. Secondly, we show that, although calcium waves in ASMC are generated by a stochastic mechanism, [Formula: see text] stochasticity is not essential for a qualitative prediction of how oscillation frequency depends on model parameters, and thus deterministic [Formula: see text] models demonstrate the same level of predictive capability as do stochastic models. We conclude that, firstly, calcium dynamics can be accurately modeled using simplified [Formula: see text] models, and, secondly, to obtain qualitative predictions of how oscillation frequency depends on parameters it is sufficient to use a deterministic model.

Characterisation of Plasmodium vivax lactate dehydrogenase dynamics in P. vivax infections.

Plasmodium vivax lactate dehydrogenase (PvLDH) is an essential enzyme in the glycolytic pathway of P. vivax. It is widely used as a diagnostic biomarker and a measure of total-body parasite biomass in vivax malaria. However, the dynamics of PvLDH remains poorly understood. Here, we developed mathematical models that capture parasite and matrix PvLDH dynamics in ex vivo culture and the human host. We estimated key biological parameters characterising in vivo PvLDH dynamics based on longitudinal data of parasitemia and PvLDH concentration collected from P. vivax-infected humans, with the estimates informed by the ex vivo data as prior knowledge in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. We found that the in vivo accumulation rate of intraerythrocytic PvLDH peaks at 10-20 h post-invasion (late ring stage) with a median estimate of intraerythrocytic PvLDH mass at the end of the life cycle to be 9.4 × 10-3ng. We also found that the median estimate of in vivo PvLDH half-life was approximately 21.9 h. Our findings provide a foundation with which to advance our quantitative understanding of P. vivax biology and will facilitate the improvement of PvLDH-based diagnostic tools.

A stochastic model of calcium puffs based on single-channel data.

Calcium puffs are local transient Ca(2+) releases from internal Ca(2+) stores such as the endoplasmic reticulum or the sarcoplasmic reticulum. Such release occurs through a cluster of inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate receptors (IP3Rs). Based on the IP3R model (which is determined by fitting to stationary single-channel data) and nonstationary single-channel data, we construct a new IP3R model that includes time-dependent rates of mode switches. A point-source model of Ca(2+) puffs is then constructed based on the new IP3R model and is solved by a hybrid Gillespie method with adaptive timing. Model results show that a relatively slow recovery of an IP3R from Ca(2+) inhibition is necessary to reproduce most of the experimental outcomes, especially the nonexponential interpuff interval distributions. The number of receptors in a cluster could be severely underestimated when the recovery is sufficiently slow. Furthermore, we find that, as the number of IP3Rs increases, the average duration of puffs initially increases but then becomes saturated, whereas the average decay time keeps increasing linearly. This gives rise to the observed asymmetric puff shape.

The establishment of a cytomegalovirus -specific CD8+ T-cell threshold by kinetic modeling for the prediction of post-hemopoietic stem cell transplant reactivation.

The dynamic interaction between the CMV virus and host immune response remains obscure, thus hindering the diagnosis and therapeutic management of patients with HSCT. The current diagnosis of CMV viremia depends on viral load estimation. Medical intervention based on viral load, can be unnecessary or poorly timed for many patients. Here we examined the clinical features and blood samples of patients with HSCT and assessed the CMV reactivation kinetics and corresponding CMV antigen-specific T-cell response in individual patients based on a peptide pool stimulation T-cell assay, which showed that CMV-specific CD8+ T cells were more suitable to be a diagnosis indicator for suppressing CMV reactivation. Using ROC analysis, we defined and verified a CMV-specific CD8+ T-cell counts threshold (925 cells/106 PBMCs) as an indicator of CMV reactivation post-HSCT, and suggested that use of this threshold would provide more accurate guidance for prompt medication and better management of CMV infection post-HSCT.