Life expectancy of colon, breast, and testicular cancer patients: an analysis of US-SEER population-based data.

BACKGROUND: Cancer survivorship is an increasingly important issue in cancer control. Life expectancy of patients diagnosed with breast, colon, and testicular cancers, stratified by age at diagnosis and time since diagnosis, is provided as an indicator to evaluate future mortality risks and health care needs of cancer survivors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The standard period life table methodology was applied to estimate excess mortality risk for cancer patients diagnosed in 1985-2011 from SEER registries and mortality data of the general US population. The sensitivity of life expectancy estimates on different assumptions was evaluated. RESULTS: Younger patients with colon cancer showed wider differences in life expectancy compared with that of the general population (11.2 years in women and 10.7 in men at age 45-49 years) than older patients (6.3 and 5.8 at age 60-64 years, respectively). Life expectancy progressively increases in patients surviving the first years, up to 4 years from diagnosis, and then starts to decrease again, approaching that of the general population. For breast cancer, the initial drop in life expectancy is less marked, and again with wider differences in younger patients, varying from 8.7 at age 40-44 years to 2.4 at ages 70-74 years. After diagnosis, life expectancy still decreases with time, but less than that in the general population, slowly approaching that of cancer-free women. Life expectancy of men diagnosed with testicular cancer at age 30 years is estimated as 45.2 years, 2 years less than cancer-free men of the same age. The difference becomes 1.3 years for patients surviving the first year, and then slowly approaches zero with increasing survival time. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy provides meaningful information on cancer patients, and can help in assessing when a cancer survivor can be considered as cured.

Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types.

BACKGROUND: Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15-74 years in 1985-2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. RESULTS: The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon-rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. CONCLUSIONS: A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective.

Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: The number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis. RESULTS: A total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 - cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Study findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning.

Cancer prevalence in United States, Nordic Countries, Italy, Australia, and France: an analysis of geographic variability.

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study were to quantitatively assess the geographic heterogeneity of cancer prevalence in selected Western Countries and to explore the associations between its determinants. METHODS: For 20 cancer sites, 5-year cancer prevalence, incidence, and survival were observed and age standardised for the mid 2000s in the United States, Nordic European Countries, Italy, Australia, and France. RESULTS: In Italy, 5-year crude prevalence for all cancers was 1.9% in men and 1.7% in women, while it was ∼1.5% in all other countries and sexes. After adjustment for the different age distribution of the populations, cancer prevalence in the United States was higher (20% in men and 10% in women) than elsewhere. For all cancers combined, the geographic heterogeneities were limited, though relevant for specific cancers (e.g., prostate, showing >30% higher prevalence in the United States, or lung, showing >50% higher prevalence in USA women than in other countries). For all countries, the correlations between differences of prevalence and differences of incidence were >0.9, while prevalence and survival were less consistently correlated. CONCLUSION: Geographic differences and magnitude of crude cancer prevalence were more strongly associated with incidence rates, influenced by population ageing, than with survival rates. These estimates will be helpful in allocating appropriate resources.

Cancer prevalence estimates in Europe at the beginning of 2000.

BACKGROUND: Complete cancer prevalence data in Europe have never been updated after the first estimates provided by the EUROPREVAL project and referred to the year 1993. This paper provides prevalence estimates for 16 major cancers in Europe at the beginning of the year 2003. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We estimated complete prevalence by the completeness index method. We used information on cancer patients diagnosed in 1978-2002 with vital status information available up to 31 December 2003, from 76 European cancer registries. RESULTS: About 11.6 millions of Europeans with a history of one of the major considered cancers were alive on 1 January 2003. For breast and prostate cancers, about 1 out of 73 women and 1 out of 160 men were living with a previous diagnosis of breast and prostate cancers, respectively. The demographic variations alone will increase the number of prevalent cases to nearly 13 millions in 2010. CONCLUSIONS: Several factors (early detection, population aging and better treatment) contribute to increase cancer prevalence and push for the need of a continuous monitoring of prevalence indicators to properly plan needs, resource allocation to cancer and for improving health care programs for cancer survivors. Cancer prevalence should be included within the EU official health statistics.

Cancer incidence and mortality in Spain: estimates and projections for the period 1981-2012.

BACKGROUND: National indicators of cancer burden are essential information for cancer surveillance and health planning, so that in countries with partial registration coverage and geographically variable risk patterns, such as Spain, this is even more relevant. This article provides estimates of cancer incidence in Spain for all cancers combined, with the single exception of non-melanoma skin cancer, and for major cancer sites over the period 1981-2006, with projections up to 2012. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach, to derive incidence from mortality and relative survival data. RESULTS: During the period 1981-2012, age-standardised incidence rates for all cancers rose from the beginning of the period and started to decline from 2000 onwards among men, and increased across the whole period among women. Differences in incidence trends between men and women might be attributable to the gender-specific case-mix of sites for all cancers, and to differences in risk factors specific to certain cancer sites in men and women, with smoking being the main factor accounting for these differences between the sexes. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates and projections of cancer incidence and mortality show divergent trends in Spain by sex and tumour type. This information is basic for planning and enhancing public health strategies and resources.

Cancer survival in Spain: estimate for nine major cancers.

BACKGROUND: This study provides estimates of population-based relative survival in Spain for nine major cancers and reports results on cancer survival by region, gender and age group. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Our analysis covered eight Spanish regions, namely, Basque Country, Navarre, Girona, Tarragona, Castellón, Albacete, Murcia and Granada, and included patients with cancer of the colon, rectum, lung, breast, ovary, prostate, testis, melanoma of skin and Hodgkin's lymphoma. Cases diagnosed during the period 1995-99 were followed up until 31 December 2004. For individual records, the maximum likelihood approach was used to estimate 5-year relative survival (5y-RS), with crude and adjusted 5y-RS being calculated. A statistical test was applied to explain significant geographical variations. RESULTS: In the regions studied, the highest 5y-RS ratio was detected for lung cancer (adjusted 5y-RS of 12.4% in Navarre versus 6.1% in Granada) and the lowest for breast cancer (91.3% in Castellón versus 81.2% in Albacete). 5y-RS for the respective cancer types was as follows: colon and rectal, 54.7% and 50.2%, respectively; ovarian, 43% overall, though much lower in the oldest age groups; prostate, 76%, rising to close to 80% in the 45-74 age group, with rates ranging from highest in Girona to lowest in Albacete; testicular, 95%, the type with the best prognosis; and Hodgkin's lymphoma, 85%, rising to 92% among young adults. In the case of melanoma of skin, the sex-related difference in 5y-RS was >10% for women. CONCLUSIONS: Although regional differences were identified for most tumours, these were more marked in lung cancer. Women showed better prognosis. Breast and prostate cancer registered lower survival among young than among middle-aged adults. The worst prognosis was for lung cancer and the best for cutaneous melanoma, with breast, prostate and Hodgkin's lymphoma displaying favourable and colon, rectum and ovary unfavourable prognoses. Identifying regional, gender- and age-related differences affords valuable knowledge for improving cancer care.

Epidemiology of rare cancers and inequalities in oncologic outcomes.

Rare cancers epidemiology is better known compared to the other rare diseases. Thanks to the long history of the European population-based cancer registries and to the EUROCARE huge database, the burden of rare cancers has been estimated the European (EU28) population. A considerable fraction of all cancers is represented by rare cancers (24%). They are a heterogeneous group of diseases, but they share similar problems: uncertainty of diagnosis, lack of therapies, poor research opportunities, difficulties in clinical trials, lack of expertise and of centres of reference. This paper analyses the major epidemiological indicators of frequency (incidence and prevalence) and outcome (5-year survival) of all rare cancers combined and of selected rare cancers that will be in depth treated in this monographic issue. Source of the results is the RARECAREnet search tool, a database publicly available. Disparities both in incidence and survival, and consequently in prevalence of rare cancers were reported across European countries. Major differences were shown in outcome: 5-year relative survival for all rare cancers together, adjusted by age and case-mix, varied from 55% or more (Italy, Germany, Belgium and Iceland) and less than 40% (Bulgaria, Lithuania and Slovakia). Similarly, for all the analyzed rare cancers, a large survival gap was observed between the Eastern and the Nordic and Central European regions. Dramatic geographical variations were assessed for curable cancers like testicular and non epithelial ovarian cancers. Geographical difference in the annual age-adjusted incidence rates for all rare cancers together varied between >140 per 100,000 (Italy, Scotland, France, Germany, and Switzerland) and <100 (Finland, Portugal, Malta, and Poland). Prevalence, the major indicator of public health resources needs, was about 7-8 times larger than incidence. Most of rare cancers require complex surgical treatment, thus a multidisciplinary approach is essential and treatment should be provided in centres of expertise and/or in networks including expert centres. Networking is the most appropriate answer to the issues pertaining to rare cancers. Actually, in Europe, an opportunity to improve outcome and reduce disparities is provided by the creation of the European Reference Networks for rare diseases (ERNs). The Joint Action of rare cancers (JARC) is a major European initiative aimed to support the mission of the ERNs. The role of population based cancer registries still remains crucial to describe rare cancers management and outcome in the real word and to evaluate progresses made at the country and at the European level.

The European study on centralisation of childhood cancer treatment.

BACKGROUND: It is generally agreed to centralise treatment of childhood cancers (CCs). We analysed (1) the degree of centralisation of CCs in European countries and 2) the relations between centralisation and survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The analysis comprised 4415 CCs, diagnosed between 2000 and 2007 and followed up to the end of 2013, from Belgium, Bulgaria, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands and Slovenia. All these countries had national population-based cancer registries and were able to provide information on diagnosis, treatment, treatment hospitals, and survival. Each case was then classified according to whether the patient was treated in a high- or a low-volume hospital among those providing CC treatment. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to calculate the relation between volume category and five-year survival, adjusting by age, sex and diagnostic group. RESULTS: The number of hospitals providing treatment for CCs ranged from six (Slovenia) to slightly more than 40 (the Netherlands and Belgium). We identified a single higher volume hospital in Ireland and in Slovenia, treating 80% and 97% of cases, respectively, and three to five major hospitals in the other countries, treating between 65% and 93% of cases. Outcome was significantly better when primary treatment was given in high-volume hospitals compared to low-volume hospitals for central nervous system tumours (relative risk [RR] = 0.71), haematologic tumours (RR = 0.74) and for all CC combined (RR = 0.83). CONCLUSION: Treatment centralisation is associated with survival benefits and should be further strengthened in these countries. New plans for centralisation should include ongoing evaluation.

Survival of 86,690 patients with thyroid cancer: A population-based study in 29 European countries from EUROCARE-5.

BACKGROUND: Incidence rates of thyroid cancer (TC) increased in several countries during the last 30 years, while mortality rates remained unchanged, raising important questions for treatment and follow-up of TC patients. This study updates population-based estimates of relative survival (RS) after TC diagnosis in Europe by sex, country, age, period and histology. METHODS: Data from 87 cancer registries in 29 countries were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 dataset. One- and 5-year RS were estimated using the cohort approach for 86,690 adult TC patients diagnosed in 2000-2007 and followed-up to 12/31/2008. RS trends in 1999-2007 and 10-year RS in 2005-2007 were estimated using the period approach. RESULTS: In Europe 2000-2007, 5-year RS after TC was 88% in women and 81% in men. Survival rates varied by country and were strongly correlated (Pearson ρ = 75%) with country-specific incidence rates. Five-year RS decreased with age (in women from >95% at age 15-54 to 57% at age 75+), from 98% in women and 94% in men with papillary TC to 14% in women and 12% in men with anaplastic TC. Proportion of papillary TC varied by country and increased over time, while survival rates were similar across areas and periods. In 1999-2007, 5-year RS increased by five percentage points for all TCs but only by two for papillary and by four for follicular TC. Ten-year RS in 2005-2007 was 89% in women and 79% in men. CONCLUSIONS: The reported increasing TC survival trend and differences by area are mainly explained by the varying histological case-mix of cases.

Estimating regional cancer burden in countries with partial registration coverage: an application to all malignant neoplasms in Italy over the period 1970-2010.

Regional epidemiological indicators of cancer burden are essential information for cancer surveillance and health resources planning, especially in countries with partial registration coverage and geographically variable risk patterns, such as Italy. This paper presents a methodology to derive cancer incidence and prevalence at the regional and national scale and illustrates its application to all malignant neoplasms in Italy for the period 1970-2010. The method, denoted as MIAMOD, is based on a back-calculation approach and derives cancer-specific morbidity measures by using official mortality data and model-based relative survival from local Cancer Registries data. The output includes time-trends and projections of a complete set of epidemiological indicators, i.e. mortality, incidence and prevalence. Results for all cancers in Italy show different incidence patterns by gender and a pronounced regional variability among men: male incidence is estimated to decrease in almost all northern-central regions, while more stable or even rising trends are estimated in the southern regions. No incidence reduction is expected for women. Prevalence increases country-wide in both sexes. The proposed approach can be applied to derive regional up-to-date time trends of cancer burden indicators in countries with local and sparse cancer registration systems. These estimates are useful for planning health services on a national and regional basis and for highlighting regional differences.

Estimates of prostate cancer burden in Italy.

Age-standardized incidence rates of prostate cancer (PC) sharply increased during the period 1990-2005 in Italian areas covered by cancer registries, while corresponding mortality rates remained nearly constant. The latest observations have reported on a reversal of the incidence trend with decreasing values after 2005. We provided incidence, mortality, and prevalence estimates at national and geographical area levels, together with time projections up to the year 2020. We applied the MIAMOD method, using as input national mortality data for the years 1970-2010 and population-based survival data for the period of diagnosis (1985-2002). We assumed relative survival of prostate cancer remained constant after the year of diagnosis (2005). The age-standardized incidence rates of PC were estimated to increase during the period 1984-2005, from 31 per 100,000 in 1984 to 93 per 100,000 in 2005. From 2005 onwards, the estimated rates declined to 71 in 2015 and to 62 in 2020. Age-standardized mortality rates slightly increased from 1970 up to about 19 per 100,000 in 1999 and then started to decrease with an estimated reduction of about 2.3% per year. Mortality projections indicated a continuing reduction, with a predicted age-standardized rate of about 12 per 100,000 in 2020. Prevalence was estimated to continuously increase up to a crude prevalence value of 1.2% in the year 2020. The results indicate that the epidemic peak of PC was reached around the year 2005 followed by declining incidence rates, while a substantial decrease in mortality, starting during the early 2000s, is expected to continue during the 2010s.

Relative survival in elderly European cancer patients: evidence for health care inequalities. The EUROCARE Working Group.

This paper examines the survival of elderly European cancer patients, on the basis of the EUROCARE II results. Using Hakulinen and Abeywickrama's method, the relative survival rates at 1 and 5 years from diagnosis were computed by sex and quinquennial age group for the elderly (65-99 years old). Age-standardised rates for the whole elderly group were also calculated. The analysis covered: all malignancies combined, stomach, colon, rectum, pancreas, lung, melanoma, bladder, kidney and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas for both sexes; prostate and larynx for men; and breast, ovary, uterine cervix and corpus for women. Data relating to 701521 cancer patients came from 44 population-based cancer registries in 16 European countries. The relative risks of death (RRs) of older patients (65-99) with respect to middle-aged adults (55-64) were computed by sex and country, for all malignancies only. The most prominent finding was the decrease in survival rates with increasing age for almost all cancer sites. The age-curves of survival rates at 1 year from diagnosis usually had a steeper slope than those at 5 years, particularly in women. This suggests that disease stage at presentation plays an important role in determining survival, particularly in the elderly. Thus, all factors which influence timing diagnosis in the elderly and cause a delay in tumour detection, such as psycho-social factors, access to care, co-morbidities and other clinical features affecting performance status, are very important predictors of prognosis. Very large geographic variations in relative survival rates were found among European countries. The ordering of countries was similar for almost all cancer sites. Western and Central Europe generally had the best survival, followed by Northern countries and by Southern ones (the latter with survival around the European average: 39% in men, 47% in women). The UK had survival rates unexpectedly lower than rates of nearest nations, often below the European average. Eastern countries usually had the lowest rates. In the very elderly patients (over 85 years), an apparent rise in the survival rates was noted, particularly at 5 years from diagnosis and in men. This 'too good' survival is unlikely to be due to real better prognosis, but rather to a selection bias. Countries with this unusual rise are also those registering a high proportion of DCO cases (those cases retrieved by death certificate only) (around 10%) or DCO unavailable. Another 'natural' bias has also to be taken into account: in elderly patients with a very bad prognosis, who are often suffering from other serious co-morbid conditions, cancer diagnoses could be under-notified and not reach at all the data sources commonly monitored by cancer registries.

Erythrocyte fatty acid composition and gallstone disease: results of an epidemiological survey.

Within a cross-sectional study on the epidemiology of gallstone disease (GD) and its related factors, relation of GD to habitual dietary fat types has been investigated. Gallbladder status was assessed by ultrasound; fatty acid composition of the habitual diet was estimated by GLC of erythrocyte fatty acids. No differences in erythrocyte fatty acid composition were observed between women without gallstones, women with gallstones (aware and unaware of their condition), and women who had cholecystectomies. Multivariate analysis, including other diet-dependent and gallstone-related variables, showed no significant association between erythrocyte fatty acids and risk for gallstones. However, raised erythrocyte linoleic:saturated ratio was associated with increased risk for gallstones only in women with very low serum triglycerides. This latter finding needs further confirmation and is presently unexplainable. Our results suggest that dietary fatty acids do not play a major role in GD.

Survival for retinoblastoma in Europe.

The survival of 954 cases of retinoblastoma, diagnosed between 1978 and 1989 in 28 populations belonging to 17 European countries and covered by cancer registration, is analysed in this study. Data were collected in the framework of the EUROCARE study following a common protocol and data-check procedures and were analysed centrally by the Kaplan-Meier method and by the Cox regression model. Overall 5-year survival in the European pool was 93% (95% confidence interval (CI): 91--95%), for both sexes. Five-, 10- and 18-year survival for a subset of 235 patients diagnosed in 1978--1981 was 91, 89 and 86%, respectively. Children diagnosed in their first year of age had a slightly higher survival (94%) than those diagnosed subsequently (92%). Survival rates lower than the European average were found in the Eastern European countries, Italy, England and Wales, Scotland, Spain and Denmark. Higher survival was found in the other Nordic countries and in Central European countries. However, none of these differences was statistically significant. There was statistically significant effect related to the period of diagnosis, with a 50% reduction in the relative risk (RR) for children diagnosed in 1986--1989 compared with those diagnosed in 1978-1981.

Survival rates for primary malignant brain tumours in Europe. EUROCARE Working Group.

In the framework of EUROCARE, a concerted action between 45 population-based cancer registries, in 17 European countries, survival of patients with primary malignant brain tumours was investigated. Survival analysis was carried out on 16,268 patients diagnosed between 1985 and 1989 and followed-up for at least 5 years. The mean European age-standardised 5-year relative survival was 17% in men and 20% in women, with minimal intercountry variations, except for markedly lower rates in Scotland, Estonia and Poland. The age-specific analysis showed a relatively uniform survival in patients aged more than 65 years at diagnosis, but there were more marked intercountry differences in younger patients. In the 15-44 year age group (25% of the total study population) 5-year relative survival ranged between 55% (Finland and Sweden) and 27% (Poland). Generally, survival decreased with increasing age at diagnosis. The analysis of a temporal trend in survival was carried out on a subset of registries with available data from 1978-1989. Overall, there was an increase in survival over the considered study period, mostly confined to 1-year survival, suggesting that it was mostly related to improved diagnostic techniques. The most important survival increase occurred in the younger patients, both for 1- and 5-year survival, suggesting that younger patients have less biologically aggressive tumours, benefiting from the combined effect of diagnostic accuracy and effective therapies. The most marked survival increase was seen in England and Denmark, countries with low survival rates at the beginning of the study period, whereas in Finland and Germany, where survival was relatively high to begin with, no important temporal trend was seen.

Trends in lung cancer mortality in three broad Italian geographical areas between 1969 and 1987.

Trends in death certification rates from lung cancer in broad Italian geographical areas (north/centre/south) were analysed over the period 1969-1987. In northern Italy, lung cancer rates in young and middle-aged males reached a peak between the mid and late 1970s, and tended to decline afterwards; only above age 60 was mortality still rising in the 1980s. A similar pattern of age-specific rates was observed in central areas, while in the South rates tended to level off in the early 1980s only below age 55, but were still upwards in subsequent age groups. Consequently, the north/south ratio for the overall age-standard rate increased slightly between the late 1960s and mid 1970s, from 1.68 (corresponding to a world standardised rate of 47.1/100,000 in the north vs. 28.1 in the south) to 1.73, but declined to 1.55 between 1985 and 1987 (for a rate of 69.1/100,000 males in the north vs. 44.6 in south). In the younger age groups a diverging pattern was observed: at ages of 25-34 rates in 1985 and 1987 were apparently higher in the south (1.0 vs. 0.9/100,000 in the north), and in the 35-44 age group the north/south ratio decreased from 1.7 to 1.2 (with rates of 12.9 and 10.7, respectively, in 1985 and 1987). Among females, lung cancer rates increased in all geographical areas and age groups except the youngest (25-34 years). Under the age of 50, the rises were proportionally similar in various geographical areas, thus widening the north/south difference in absolute terms. Above the age of 50, the north/south difference tended to be wider in relative terms too, reaching a factor of 2 in the 65-74 age group. The overall age-standardised north/south ratio for females increased from 1.51 in 1969-1974 (5.6 vs. 3.7/100,000) to 1.87 in 1985-1987 (8.4 vs. 4.5/100,000). These trends reflect changes in smoking habits in subsequent generations of Italian males and females from different areas of the country, and confirm the central role of cigarette smoking in lung cancer rates in various populations, although this does not exclude some influence by other, mainly occupational, lung carcinogens on the substantial differences in lung cancer rates in various Italian geographical areas.

Introduction: the EUROCARE II Study.

This introduction provides a general overview of the aims, methods and procedures used in the EUROCARE II study and the types of analyses presented in each article of this Special Issue of the European Journal of Cancer. The main aims of the EUROCARE II project are the updating of the survival database of the European Cancer Registries, the study of recent trends in relative survival rates and the interpretation of the survival differences observed both in time and across populations. Once having completed the preliminary stage of data checking, a total of 3,473,659 individual records from patients of all cancer sites, diagnosed between 1978 and 1989 and provided by 45 cancer registries in 17 European countries were accepted to build up the EUROCARE database. The quality of these data, in terms of the accuracy of the diagnosis and the validity of vital status assessment, was checked by indirect indicators, based on cross-validation analysis of consistency of the relevant variables. Statistical analysis was based on age-specific relative survival rates, computed for each cancer sites as the ratio of observed survival to the expected survival of the general population of the same area, gender and age, according to the Hakulinen method. An estimate of the European survival was computed as a weighted mean of the corresponding survival of the different countries, using as weights the expected yearly number of incident cases in each country. For comparison purposes, age-standardised survival was also calculated for Europe and for each country involved in the study.

Survival of colorectal cancer patients in Europe during the period 1978-1989. EUROCARE Working Group.

This study concerns the survival of European patients diagnosed between 1978 and 1989 with colorectal cancer. Variations in survival in relation to age, country and period of diagnosis were examined. Data from the EUROCARE study were supplied by population-based cancer registries in 17 countries to a common protocol. Five years after diagnosis, relative survival rates were 47 and 43% for cancers of the colon and rectum, respectively. Survival decreased with increasing age: the relative risk of dying for the oldest patients (75+) was 1.39 for rectum and 1.54 for colon compared with the youngest patients (15-44 years). In 1985-1989 survival from colorectal cancer differed significantly between different European countries: the Nordic countries (Denmark excluded), The Netherlands, Switzerland, France and Austria were characterised by high survival, whilst Eastern European countries, the U.K. and Denmark were characterised by low survival. There was a general improvement in survival over the period 1978-1989: from 40 to 48% for colon cancer and 38 to 46% for rectal cancer. For neither cancer site did between-country survival differences narrow over the study period. Intercountry and time differences in survival differences are probably related to stage at diagnosis and postoperative mortality.

Survival and age at diagnosis of breast cancer in a population-based cancer registry.

From the population covered by the Lombardy Cancer Registry, Italy, 1991 female breast cancer patients diagnosed from 1976 to 1981 were followed up until May 1987. Relative survival was 69% at 5 years and 58% at 10 years; median survival was 8.8 years. Ages 40-49 showed the best survival; ages 25-34 were 20% lower. From age 50 onwards, survival decreased progressively, with the exception of age group 65-74. We suggest that the best prognosis for ages 40-49, followed by the survival fall in subsequent ages, could be related to an anticipation of diagnosis in ages near menopause. The death hazard function showed a bimodal pattern, with a first peak in the first years after diagnosis, and a second one between the seventh and eighth years. The death hazard rate decreased by about 1% per year at each subsequent calendar year of diagnosis. When such an estimated calendar effect was taken in account, there were no considerable survival differences among Western countries covered by population-based cancer registries.