Using public health scenarios to predict the utility of a national syndromic surveillance programme during the 2012 London Olympic and Paralympic Games.

During 2012 real-time syndromic surveillance formed a key part of the daily public health surveillance for the London Olympic and Paralympic Games. It was vital that these systems were evaluated prior to the Games; in particular what types and scales of incidents could and could not be detected. Different public health scenarios were created covering a range of potential incidents that the Health Protection Agency would require syndromic surveillance to rapidly detect and monitor. For the scenarios considered it is now possible to determine what is likely to be detectable and how incidents are likely to present using the different syndromic systems. Small localized incidents involving food poisoning are most likely to be detected the next day via emergency department surveillance, while a new strain of influenza is more likely to be detected via GP or telephone helpline surveillance, several weeks after the first seed case is introduced.

Using an Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance System to investigate the impact of extreme cold weather events.

This report describes the development of novel syndromic cold weather public health surveillance indicators for use in monitoring the impact of extreme cold weather on attendances at EDs, using data from the 2010-11 and 2011-12 winters. A number of new surveillance indicators were created specifically for the identification and monitoring of cold weather related ED attendances, using the diagnosis codes provided for each attendance in the Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance System (EDSSS), the first national syndromic surveillance system of its kind in the UK. Using daily weather data for the local area, a time series analysis to test the sensitivity of each indicator to cold weather was undertaken. Diagnosis codes relating to a health outcome with a potential direct link to cold weather were identified and assigned to a number of 'cold weather surveillance indicators'. The time series analyses indicated strong correlations between low temperatures and cold indicators in nearly every case. The strongest fit with temperature was cold related fractures in females, and that of snowfall was cold related fractures in both sexes. Though currently limited to a small number of sentinel EDs, the EDSSS has the ability to give near real-time detail on the magnitude of the impact of weather events. EDSSS cold weather surveillance fits well with the aims of the Cold Weather Plan for England, providing information on those particularly vulnerable to cold related health outcomes severe enough to require emergency care. This timely information aids those responding to and managing the effects on human health, both within the EDs themselves and in the community as a whole.

The impact of thunderstorm asthma on emergency department attendances across London during July 2013.

BACKGROUND: This study illustrates the potential of using emergency department attendance data, routinely accessed as part of a national syndromic surveillance system, to monitor the impact of thunderstorm asthma. METHODS: The Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance System (EDSSS) routinely monitors anonymised attendance data on a daily basis across a sentinel network of 35 emergency departments. Attendance data for asthma, wheeze and difficulty breathing are analysed on a daily basis. RESULTS: A statistically significant spike in asthma attendances in two EDSSS emergency departments in London was detected on 23 July 2013, coinciding with a series of large violent thunderstorms across southern England. There was also an increase in the reported severity of these attendances. CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary report illustrates the potential of the EDSSS to monitor the impact of thunderstorms on emergency department asthma attendances. Further work will focus on how this system can be used to quantify the impact on emergency departments, thus potentially improving resource planning and also adding to the thunderstorm asthma evidence-base.

Novel coronavirus associated with severe respiratory disease: case definition and public health measures.

Two cases of rapidly progressive acute respiratory infection in adults associated with a novel coronavirus have generated an international public health response. The two infections were acquired three months apart, probably in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. An interim case definition has been elaborated and was published on the World Health Organization website on 25 September 2012.

Infectious disease surveillance for the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

The London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games will be one of the largest mass gathering events in British history. In order to minimise potential infectious disease threats related to the event, the Health Protection Agency (HPA) has set up a suite of robust and multisource surveillance systems. These include enhancements of already established systems (notification of infectious diseases, local and regional reporting,laboratory surveillance, mortality surveillance, international surveillance, and syndromic surveillance in primary care), as well as new systems created for the Games (syndromic surveillance in emergency departments and out-of-hours/unscheduled care,undiagnosed serious infectious illness surveillance).Enhanced existing and newly established surveillance systems will continue after the Games or will be ready for future reactivation should the need arise. In addition to the direct improvements to surveillance, the strengthening of relationships with national and international stakeholders will constitute a major post-Games legacy for the HPA.

The United Kingdom public health response to an imported laboratory confirmed case of a novel coronavirus in September 2012.

On 22 September 2012, a novel coronavirus, very closely related to that from a fatal case in Saudi Arabia three months previously, was detected in a previously well adult transferred to intensive care in London from Qatar with severe respiratory illness. Strict respiratory isolation was instituted. Ten days after last exposure, none of 64 close contacts had developed severe disease, with 13 of 64 reporting mild respiratory symptoms. The novel coronavirus was not detected in 10 of 10 symptomatic contacts tested.

Estimating time to onset of swine influenza symptoms after initial novel A(H1N1v) viral infection.

Characterization of the incubation time from infection to onset is important for understanding the natural history of infectious diseases. Attempts to estimate the incubation time distribution for novel A(H1N1v) have been, up to now, based on limited data or peculiar samples. We characterized this distribution for a generic group of symptomatic cases using laboratory-confirmed swine influenza case-information. Estimates of the incubation distribution for the pandemic influenza were derived through parametric time-to-event analyses of data on onset of symptoms and exposure dates, accounting for interval censoring. We estimated a mean of about 1·6-1·7 days with a standard deviation of 2 days for the incubation time distribution in those who became symptomatic after infection with the A(H1N1v) virus strain. Separate analyses for the <15 years and ≥ 15 years age groups showed a significant (P<0·02) difference with a longer mean incubation time in the older age group.

Hospitalization in two waves of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in England.

Uncertainties exist regarding the population risks of hospitalization due to pandemic influenza A(H1N1). Understanding these risks is important for patients, clinicians and policy makers. This study aimed to clarify these uncertainties. A national surveillance system was established for patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in England. Information was captured on demographics, pre-existing conditions, treatment and outcomes. The relative risks of hospitalization associated with pre-existing conditions were estimated by combining the captured data with population prevalence estimates. A total of 2416 hospitalizations were reported up to 6 January 2010. Within the population, 4·7 people/100,000 were hospitalized with pandemic influenza A(H1N1). The estimated hospitalization rate of cases showed a U-shaped distribution with age. Chronic kidney disease, chronic neurological disease, chronic respiratory disease and immunosuppression were each associated with a 10- to 20-fold increased risk of hospitalization. Patients who received antiviral medication within 48 h of symptom onset were less likely to be admitted to critical care than those who received them after this time (adjusted odds ratio 0·64, 95% confidence interval 0·44-0·94, P=0·024). In England the risk of hospitalization with pandemic influenza A(H1N1) has been concentrated in the young and those with pre-existing conditions. By quantifying these risks, this study will prove useful in planning for the next winter in the northern and southern hemispheres, and for future pandemics.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus outbreak in a school in London, April-May 2009: an observational study.

On 29 April 2009, an imported case of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection was detected in a London school. As further cases, pupils and staff members were identified, school closure and mass prophylaxis were implemented. An observational descriptive study was conducted to provide an insight into the clinical presentation and transmission dynamics in this setting. Between 15 April and 15 May 2009, 91 symptomatic cases were identified: 33 were confirmed positive for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection; 57 were tested negative; in one the results were unavailable. Transmission occurred first within the school, and subsequently outside. Attack rates were 2% in pupils (15% in the 11-12 years age group) and 17% in household contacts. The predominant symptoms were fever (97%), respiratory symptoms (91%), and sore throat (79%). Limited spread in the school may have been due to a combination of school closure and mass prophylaxis. However, transmission continued through household contacts to other schools.

Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 and mortality in the United Kingdom: risk factors for death, April 2009 to March 2010.

This paper describes the epidemiology of fatal pandemic influenza A(H1N1) cases in the United Kingdom (UK) since April 2009 and in particular risk factors associated with death. A fatal case was defined as a UK resident who died between 27 April 2009 and 12 March 2010, in whom pandemic influenza A(H1N1) infection was confirmed by laboratory or recorded on death certificate. Case fatality ratios (CFR) were calculated using the estimated cumulative number of clinical cases as the denominator. The relative risk of death was estimated by comparing the population mortality rate in each risk group, with those not in a risk group. Across the UK, 440 fatal cases were identified. In England, fatal cases were mainly seen in young adults (median age 43 years, 85% under 65 years), unlike for seasonal influenza. The majority (77%) of cases for whom data were available (n=308) had underlying risk factors for severe disease. The CFR in those aged 65 years or over was nine per 1,000 (range 3 - 26) compared to 0.4 (range 0.2 to 0.9) for those aged six months to 64 years. In the age group between six month and 64 years, the relative risk for fatal illness for those in a risk group was 18. The population attributable fractions in this age group were highest for chronic neurological disease (24%), immunosuppression (16%) and respiratory disease (15%). The results highlight the importance of early targeted effective intervention programmes.

Syndromic surveillance to assess the potential public health impact of the Icelandic volcanic ash plume across the United Kingdom, April 2010.

The Health Protection Agency and Health Protection Scotland used existing syndromic surveillance systems to monitor community health in the UK following the volcanic eruption in Iceland in April 2010.

Using chlamydia positivity to estimate prevalence: evidence from the Chlamydia Screening Pilot in England.

Studies have suggested that positivity can be used to estimate the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis in large-scale chlamydia screening programmes. A recent pilot of opportunistic screening in England estimated that the prevalence among 16-24-year-old women in Portsmouth and Wirral was 9.8% and 11.2%, respectively. This study assessed the continued validity of positivity as an approximate for prevalence. We re-analysed data from the Chlamydia Screening Pilot to estimate positivity,calculated as total positive tests divided by total tests, and compared these estimates with the previously reported prevalence, measured as the number of women testing positive divided by the total number of women screened. Overall positivity was 9.4% in Portsmouth and 11.0% in the Wirral; these estimates were not statistically different from prevalence, regardless of health-care setting, age group or symptoms. We conclude that positivity can be used as a proxy for prevalence.

Cefadroxil compared with cefaclor in the treatment of streptococcal pneumonia in adults.

103 young male Black African gold-miners with pneumococcal pneumonia confirmed by culture or serology were randomly assigned to receive the long acting oral cephalosporin cefadroxil 1 g every 12 hours or cefaclor 500 mg every 8 hours for 10 days. Clinical cures were obtained in 94% of the group who received cefadroxil and in 94% of the cefaclor group. Similarly, the causative organism S. pneumoniae was eradicated in 98% and 96% of patients who received cefadroxil and cefaclor, respectively. Minimal side effects occurred in both groups, although 1 patient withdrew from therapy with cefaclor because of severe diarrhoea. Thus, cefadroxil and cefaclor both displayed effective antimicrobial activity with low toxicity in the treatment of pneumococcal pneumonia.

The public health applications of unlinked anonymous seroprevalence monitoring for HIV in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: In order to monitor the epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), integrated national programmes of unlinked anonymous (blinded) HIV sero-surveys have taken place in the UK since 1990. METHODS: The programmes comprise multi-centre surveys primarily using specimens gathered routinely for screening groups of patients. All specimens are irreversibly unlinked from patient identifiers before being tested. RESULTS: The surveys have met their prime aim of providing at low cost minimally biased estimates of current HIV prevalence and trends in sentinel populations. The surveys have remained acceptable to professionals and the public, being successfully implemented without breech of their founding principles. The findings have had major public health applications, have influenced HIV policy and funding, been used for monitoring the spread of HIV, for targeting and evaluating health promotion and improving projections of severe HIV disease. The surveys have detected substantial prevalence rises and under-diagnosis of HIV which would otherwise have been unrecognised. The programmes' value is being increased by sub-typing HIV-1 isolates, capturing additional demographic information to detect spread among minority groups. The same specimens are used for monitoring other infections (initially hepatitis A, B and C). CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring HIV and other infections through unlinked anonymous HIV surveillance has become an integral essential part of national HIV and AIDS surveillance. Although it has unique applications the value of unlinked anonymous surveillance is maximized when used in conjunction with behavioural data, information from HIV and AIDS reporting, and behavioural data and surveillance for other sexually transmitted infections.

Improving data collection and information retrieval for monitoring sexual health.

Recent advances in information technology (IT) offer a wealth of new tools to enhance data collection and information processing. Used in conjunction with established statistical techniques, these advances could be applied to develop a better understanding of demographic and behavioural factors in the acquisition and spread of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Successful implementation of these technologies will, however, require significant investment of resources, closer working between clinical specialties, and dealing with the fundamental concerns many clinicians as well as patients have over collection of personal data. An important first step towards realizing some of these benefits for data on STIs would be the disaggregation of data collected from genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics.

Genitourinary medicine services in the United Kingdom are failing to meet current demand.

Recent increases in the incidence of sexually transmitted disease (STD) in the UK have given rise to concerns over the ability of genitourinary medicine (GUM) services to cope with increased demands. We conducted a postal survey to assess the capacity of GUM clinics to meet patient demand for both routine and emergency consultations. A questionnaire was sent to all lead GUM physicians in the UK. The response rate was 80%. In some clinics, patients had to wait for up to 28 days for routine appointments. Urgent appointment patients were seen within 24 h by only 54% of clinics and some had to wait for at least one week (5% of clinics). Prolonged waiting times were reported nationwide in addition to widely expressed concerns about the increasing workload. Additional resources should be made available to GUM services if the population's sexual health is to be improved.

Surveillance of sexually transmitted infections in England and Wales.

Owing to the unique link between the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human behaviour, the surveillance of STIs requires the collection of more demographic and behavioural data than for other infectious diseases. In order to supp

Women's health in the People's Republic of China: some challenges of modernization.

OBJECTIVE: To identify aspects of the health of Chinese women throughout their lifespan which may paradoxically be threatened by modernization and to suggest relevant interventions through medical practice, education and research to meet these challenges. DATA SOURCES: Six risk areas were selected as examples: infant sex ratios; tobacco use by girls; respiratory illness plus anemia; psychosocial stress; osteoporosis; and dementia. Articles and other databases, through article citations, and through consultations with Chinese medical professionals. DATA SELECTION: Studies were selected which described clinical investigations, health care policy, or conditions of women in the People's Republic of China (PRC). Preference (but not exclusivity) was given to articles in internationally available publications, in English, and to authors working in the PRC. DATA EXTRACTION: Study quality, specific descriptive information concerning population, samples, and outcome measures were evaluated. DATA SYNTHESIS: Data documenting the present and future significance of these health threats are described, and current and potential interventions to address these problems through medical practice, education and research are outlined. CONCLUSION: Important issues in women's health are currently recognized in the PRC; problems occur in assigning priorities in the face of a large population and limited resources. The Chinese medical community plays a central role in developing and carrying out interventions to protect and promote women's health.