Real-World Eligibility and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Empagliflozin for Heart Failure in Korea.

BACKGROUND: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA) approved empagliflozin for reducing cardiovascular mortality and heart failure (HF) hospitalization in patients with both HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). However, limited data are available on the generalizability of empagliflozin to clinical practice. Therefore, we evaluated real-world eligibility and potential cost-effectiveness based on a nationwide prospective HF registry. METHODS: A total of 3,108 HFrEF and 2,070 HFpEF patients from the Korean Acute Heart Failure (KorAHF) registry were analyzed. Eligibility was estimated by inclusion and exclusion criteria of EMPagliflozin outcomE tRial in Patients With chrOnic heaRt Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (EMPEROR-Reduced) and EMPagliflozin outcomE tRial in Patients With chrOnic heaRt Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (EMPEROR-Preserved) trials and by FDA & EMA label criteria. The cost-utility analysis was done using a Markov model to project the lifetime medical cost and quality-adjusted life year (QALY). RESULTS: Among the KorAHF patients, 91.4% met FDA & EMA label criteria, while 44.7% met the clinical trial criteria. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of empagliflozin was calculated at US$6,764 per QALY in the overall population, which is far below a threshold of US$18,182 per QALY. The cost-effectiveness benefit was more evident in patients with HFrEF (US$5,012 per QALY) than HFpEF (US$8,971 per QALY). CONCLUSION: There is a large discrepancy in real-world eligibility for empagliflozin between FDA & EMA labels and clinical trial criteria. Empagliflozin is cost-effective in HF patients regardless of ejection fraction in South Korea health care setting. The efficacy and safety of empagliflozin in real-world HF patients should be further investigated for a broader range of clinical applications. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01389843.

Prediction of longitudinal clinical outcomes after acute myocardial infarction using a dynamic machine learning algorithm.

Several regression-based models for predicting outcomes after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have been developed. However, prediction models that encompass diverse patient-related factors over time are limited. This study aimed to develop a machine learning-based model to predict longitudinal outcomes after AMI. This study was based on a nationwide prospective registry of AMI in Korea (n = 13,104). Seventy-seven predictor candidates from prehospitalization to 1 year of follow-up were included, and six machine learning approaches were analyzed. Primary outcome was defined as 1-year all-cause death. Secondary outcomes included all-cause deaths, cardiovascular deaths, and major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) at the 1-year and 3-year follow-ups. Random forest resulted best performance in predicting the primary outcome, exhibiting a 99.6% accuracy along with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.874. Top 10 predictors for the primary outcome included peak troponin-I (variable importance value = 0.048), in-hospital duration (0.047), total cholesterol (0.047), maintenance of antiplatelet at 1 year (0.045), coronary lesion classification (0.043), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels (0.039), body mass index (BMI) (0.037), door-to-balloon time (0.035), vascular approach (0.033), and use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor (0.032). Notably, BMI was identified as one of the most important predictors of major outcomes after AMI. BMI revealed distinct effects on each outcome, highlighting a U-shaped influence on 1-year and 3-year MACE and 3-year all-cause death. Diverse time-dependent variables from prehospitalization to the postdischarge period influenced the major outcomes after AMI. Understanding the complexity and dynamic associations of risk factors may facilitate clinical interventions in patients with AMI.

Effect of hemoglobin A1c change on 24-month clinical outcomes in patients with diabetes after acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: The average glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) may not accurately reflect glycemic control status during the mid-term after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We aimed to evaluate changes in HbA1c and their effect on mid-term clinical outcomes in patients with diabetes and AMI. METHODS: We enrolled patients with diabetes ( n  = 967) who underwent HbA1c measurement in the Korean nationwide registry. These patients were categorized into three groups based on changes in HbA1c from index admission to the 1-year follow-up visit: a decrease in HbA1c > 1%, changes in HbA1c within 1%, and an increase in HbA1c > 1%. Clinical outcomes at 24 months were examined. RESULTS: The baseline HbA1c levels were 8.55 ±â€…0.85, 7.00 ±â€…0.98 and 7.07 ±â€…1.05 ( P  = 0.001) and HbA1c levels after 1 year were 6.62 ±â€…0.73, 7.05 ±â€…0.98 and 9.26 ±â€…1.59 ( P  = 0.001) for patients with 3 groups, respectively. Patients with a 1% decrease in HbA1c had significantly lower incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), cardiac death, and rehospitalization after 24 months than those with a 1% increase in HbA1c. However, in the Cox regression analysis, a >1% decrease in HbA1c change was not an independent factor for MACE, cardiac death, and rehospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis indicates that an HbA1c decrease of >1% within the first 12 months was not an independent prognostic factor until the 24-month mark. Therefore, standard diabetic control is recommended for patients with diabetes and AMI for up to 2 years.

Metformin treatment is associated with improved survival in diabetic patients hospitalized with acute heart failure: A prospective observational study using the Korean acute heart failure registry data.

AIMS: Although the hypothesis that metformin is beneficial for patients with diabetes and heart failure (HF) has been steadily raised, there is limited data on metformin use in patients with acute HF. We analyzed the association of metformin on all-cause mortality in hospitalized patients with type 2 diabetes and acute HF. METHODS: The Korean Acute Heart Failure registry prospectively enrolled patients hospitalized for acute HF from 2011 to 2014. Among this cohort, we analyzed patients with diabetes with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 or more. We analyzed the all-cause mortality and re-hospitalization for HF within 1 year after discharge. Inverse probability treatment weighting method was used to adjust baseline differences on metformin treatment. RESULTS: The study analyzed data from 1,309 patients with HF and diabetes (mean age 69 years, 56 % male). Among them, 613 (47 %) patients were on metformin at admission. During the median follow-up period of 11 months, 132 (19 %) and 74 (12 %) patients not receiving and receiving metformin treatment died, respectively. The mortality rate was lower in metformin users than in non-users (hazard ratio 0.616 [0.464-0.819] P<0.001). After adjustment, metformin was significantly associated with a lower risk for the mortality (hazard ratio 0.677 [0.495-0.928] P=0.015). In subgroup analyses, this association remains significant irrespective of baseline kidney function (eGFR <60 or ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2, P-for-interaction=0.176) or left ventricular ejection fraction (<40 %, 40-49 %, or ≥50 %, P-for-interaction=0.224). CONCLUSIONS: Metformin treatment at the time of admission was associated with a lower risk for 1-year mortality in patients with diabetes, hospitalized for acute HF.

Eligibility and Cost-Utility Analysis of Dapagliflozin in Patients with Heart Failure Across the Whole Spectrum of Ejection Fraction in South Korea.

BACKGROUND: The DAPA-HF and DELIVER trials demonstrated the clinical benefits of dapagliflozin in heart failure (HF) patients across the entire ejection fraction (EF) spectrum. However, further investigation is needed for the real-world application of dapagliflozin in HF patients. This study examines the proportion of real-world HF patients eligible for dapagliflozin and evaluates the cost-effectiveness of adding dapagliflozin to current HF therapy. METHODS: Data from the nationwide prospective registry, the Korean Acute Heart Failure (KorAHF) registry, were used to determine dapagliflozin eligibility based on the enrollment criteria of the DAPA-HF/DELIVER trials. A cost-utility analysis was conducted using a Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin by comparing it to the standard of care. RESULTS: Out of 5178 KorAHF patients, 48.7% met the enrollment criteria of the DAPA-HF/DELIVER trials, while 89.5% met the label criteria (US Food and Drug Administration, European Medicines Agency, and Korean Ministry of Food and Drug Safety). Eligibility was highest among HF patients with preserved EF (55.3% vs. HF with mildly reduced EF and HF with reduced EF 46.4%). Dapagliflozin proved to be cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 4557 US dollar (US$) per quality-adjusted life year, which falls below the US$18,182 willingness-to-pay threshold. The cost-effectiveness benefit was more pronounced in patients with a left ventricular EF (LVEF) ≤ 40% (ICER US$3279 for LVEF ≤ 40% vs. US$8383 for LVEF > 40%). CONCLUSIONS: Discrepancies in dapagliflozin eligibility were observed between real-world data and clinical trial results. The addition of dapagliflozin to HF therapy proved to be highly cost-effective across the entire EF spectrum.