Trends in Individualized Affordability of Factory-Made Cigarettes: Findings of the 2008-2020 International Tobacco Control Netherlands Surveys.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette affordability, the price of tobacco relative to consumer income, is a key determinant of tobacco consumption. AIMS AND METHODS: This study examined trends over 12 years in individualized factory-made cigarette affordability in the Netherlands, and whether these trends differed by sex, age, and education. Data from 10 waves (2008-2020) of the International Tobacco Control Netherlands Surveys were used to estimate individualized affordability, measured as the percentage of income required to buy 100 cigarette packs (Relative Income Price [RIP]), using self-reported prices and income. The higher the RIP, the less affordable cigarettes are. Generalized estimating equation regression models assessed trends in individualized affordability over time and by sex, age, and education. RESULTS: Affordability decreased significantly between 2008 and 2020, with RIP increasing from 1.89% (2008) to 2.64% (2020) (p ≤ .001), except for 2008-2010, no significant year-on-year changes in affordability were found. Lower affordability was found among subgroups who have a lower income level: Females (vs. males), 18-24 and 25-39-year-olds (vs. 55 years and over) and low or moderate-educated individuals (vs. highly educated). Interactions between wave and education (p = .007) were found, but not with sex (p = .653) or age (p = .295). A decreasing linear trend in affordability was found for moderately (p = .041) and high-educated (p = .025), but not for low-educated individuals (p = .149). CONCLUSIONS: Cigarettes in the Netherlands have become less affordable between 2008 and 2020, yet this was mostly because of the decrease in affordability between 2008 and 2010. There is a need for more significant increases in tax to further decrease affordability. IMPLICATIONS: Our findings suggest that cigarettes have become less affordable in the Netherlands between 2008 and 2020. But, this appears to be the result of a steep decrease in affordability between 2008 and 2010. Affordability was lower among groups who have on average lower incomes (females, young adults, and low- and moderate-educated individuals), and differences in trends across education levels could be explained by per capita income changes. Our individualized measure indicated lower affordability than published aggregate affordability estimations. Future tax increases should be large enough to result in a lower affordability.

Better cigarette tax policies and higher tobacco excise tax revenues.

BACKGROUND: In November 2021, the Tobacconomics team published the second edition of the Cigarette Tax Scorecard which evaluates cigarette taxation in each country based on four components-cigarette price, affordability change, tax share and tax structure. This study examines the relationship between the overall cigarette tax score and tobacco excise tax revenue between 2014 and 2018. METHODS: Using cigarette tax scores from the Tobacconomics Cigarette Tax Scorecard and tobacco excise tax revenue information from WHO, this analysis is based on ordinary least squares estimations to assess the association between the overall cigarette tax scores and tobacco excise tax revenues per capita controlling for countries' tobacco control environment, sociodemographic characteristics and country and year fixed effects. RESULTS: A 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.98 (in constant 2018 purchasing power parity international dollars). For low and middle-income countries and lower performing countries at baseline, a 1-point higher overall cigarette tax score is associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita of $11.32 and $6.92, respectively. If all countries had increased their scores to '5', the tobacco excise tax revenue per capita would have increased by 22.51%. CONCLUSIONS: Higher overall cigarette tax scores are associated with higher tobacco excise tax revenue per capita. Countries aiming to reach higher cigarette tax scores would be able to reduce tobacco use and increase their tobacco tax revenue, which can be allocated to development priorities.

Effect of e-cigarette taxes on e-cigarette and cigarette retail prices and sales, USA, 2014-2019.

OBJECTIVE: To use a standardised e-cigarette tax measure to examine the impact of e-cigarette taxes on the price and sales of e-cigarettes and cigarettes in the USA. DESIGN: We used State Line versions of NielsenIQ Retail Scanner data from quarter 4 of 2014 through quarter 4 of 2019 to calculate e-cigarette and cigarette prices and sales in 23 US states. We then estimated how these outcomes are associated with standardised state-level e-cigarette taxes, controlling for state fixed effects, quarter-by-year fixed effects, cigarette taxes, other tobacco control policies and other state-level time-varying characteristics. RESULTS: A real $1 increase in the e-cigarette standardised tax increases the price of 1 mL of e-liquid between $0.43 and $0.59 depending on specification. Controlling for fixed effects and cigarette taxes, a 10% increase in e-cigarette taxes is estimated to reduce e-cigarette sales by 0.5% and increase cigarette sales by 0.1%, though both results are attenuated and statistically insignificant in a model with full controls. CONCLUSIONS: Our study finds that e-cigarette taxes increase e-cigarette retail prices by approximately half of the tax. Further, e-cigarette taxes are associated with reduced sales of e-cigarettes and increased sales of cigarettes in some specifications. Our estimates are sizably lower than from other studies using sales and survey data.

As countries improve their cigarette tax policy, cigarette consumption declines.

BACKGROUND: This study examines the association between the Tobacconomics cigarette tax scores and cigarette consumption in 97 countries during the period of 2014-2020. METHODS: Data on countries' retail cigarette sales and overall cigarette tax scores from 2014 to 2020 are drawn from the proprietary Euromonitor International database and the Tobacconomics Cigarette Tax Scorecard (second edition). Information on countries' tobacco control environments and demographic characteristics is from the relevant years' WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic, and the World Bank's World Development Indicators database. Ordinary least squares regressions are employed to examine the link between countries' overall cigarette tax scores and cigarette consumption. All regressions control for countries' tobacco control environments, countries' demographic characteristics, year indicators and country fixed effects. RESULTS: Each unit increase in the overall cigarette tax scores is significantly associated with a reduction of 9% in countries' per-capita cigarette consumption during 2014-2020. The reduction is more pronounced in low and middle-income countries (9%) than in high-income countries (6%). The modest improvement in scores from 2014 to 2020 is associated with a reduction of 3.27% in consumption, while consumption could have been reduced by 20.74% had countries implemented optimal tax policies that would earn the highest score of 5. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide evidence on the association between higher cigarette tax scores and lower cigarette consumption. To reduce tobacco consumption, governments must strive to implement all four components in the Cigarette Tax Scorecard at the highest level.

Do e-cigarette sales reduce the demand for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products in the US? Evidence from the retail sales data.

Despite mixed evidence, many smokers use e-cigarettes to quit smoking. With the substantial growth of e-cigarette sales in recent years, it is important to understand how it may affect FDA-approved nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products in the US. This study aims to investigate the impact of e-cigarette prices and TV advertising on the demand for NRT products. Quarterly (2010 Q1-2017 Q4) retail sales and price data of e-cigarettes and NRT gum and patch, compiled from Nielsen retail store scanner database, were linked with contemporaneous quarterly television rating data for e-cigarettes and NRT products, compiled from Kantar Media, using state and county identifier. Market, year, and quarter fixed effects models were used to estimate the impact of NRT price and TV advertising, as well as e-cigarette price and TV advertising, on the demand for NRT gum and patch. NRT gum price elasticity was estimated to be -0.91. Higher patch price was found to decrease gum sales (cross-price elasticity -0.96). Higher e-cigarette prices were found to decrease NRT gum sales. Higher cigarette prices were found to increase NRT gum sales. NRT patch price elasticity was estimated to be -2.05. Higher gum price was found to increase patch sales (cross-price elasticity 0.97). E-cigarette TV advertisement was positively associated with NRT gum sales. NRT gum appeared to be complements for e-cigarettes. Recent growth in e-cigarette sales may have increased the demand for NRT gum. More studies are needed to understand the differential behavioral patterns of NRT gum users and NRT path users.

Costs of vaping: evidence from ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To compare the prices paid for nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and supplies among current NVP users to prices paid for cigarettes among current smokers. DATA: The 2016 International Tobacco Control Four Country Vaping and Smoking Survey (4CV1). Key measures included: (1) self-reported prices paid for reusable NVPs (eg, rechargeable devices with cartridges and tank system devices with e-liquids) in the 3-month period prior to the survey among current NVP users, (2) prices paid for disposable NVPs, cartridges and e-liquids purchased in the last 30 days among current NVP users and (3) self-reported prices paid for cigarettes among current smokers. RESULTS: Disposable NVP price was higher than the price of a comparable unit for combustible cigarettes in England (EN), USA and Canada (CA). Prefilled cartridge price was higher than the price of a comparable unit of cigarettes in USA and CA, but lower in EN and Australia. E-liquid price was consistently lower than the price of a comparable unit of cigarettes across four countries. For start-up costs, price of a rechargeable device is approximately 3-5 times higher than a pack of cigarettes in four countries. CONCLUSION: NVP prices were generally higher than prices of combustible cigarettes, especially the high upfront NVP devices. The high upfront costs of purchasing a reusable NVP may discourage some smokers from switching to vaping. However, the average lower costs of cartridges and e-liquids relative to a package of cigarettes make switching to a NVP an attractive alternative to smoking in the long term so long as smokers switch completely to vaping.

The Experimental Tobacco Marketplace: Demand and Substitutability as a Function of Cigarette Taxes and e-Liquid Subsidies.

INTRODUCTION: The experimental tobacco marketplace (ETM) approximates real-world situations by estimating the effects of several, concurrently available products and policies on budgeted purchasing. Although the effects of increasing cigarette price on potentially less harmful substitutability are well documented, the effects of other, nuanced pricing policies remain speculative. This study used the ETM as a tool to assess the effects of two pricing policies, conventional cigarette taxation and e-liquid subsidization, on demand and substitutability. METHODS: During sampling periods, participants were provided 2-day samples of 24 mg/mL e-liquid, after which ETM purchase sessions occurred. Across two ETM sessions, conventional cigarettes were taxed or e-liquid was subsidized in combination with increasing cigarette price. The other four available products were always price constant and not taxed or subsidized. RESULTS: E-liquid functioned as a substitute for conventional cigarettes across all conditions. Increasing cigarette taxation and e-liquid subsidization increased the number of participants for which e-liquid functioned as a substitute. Cigarette taxation decreased cigarette demand, by decreasing demand intensity, and marginally increased the initial intensity of e-liquid substitution, but did not affect the functions' slopes (substitutability). E-liquid subsidization resulted in large increases in the initial intensity of e-liquid substitution, but did not affect e-liquid substitutability nor cigarette demand. IMPLICATIONS: 24 mg/mL e-cigarette e-liquid was the only product to significantly substitute for cigarettes in at least one condition throughout the experiment; it functioned as a significant substitute throughout all four tax and all four subsidy conditions. Increasing cigarette taxes decreased cigarette demand through decreases in demand intensity but did not affect e-cigarette substitution. Increasing e-liquid subsidies increased e-liquid initial intensity of substitution but did not affect cigarette demand. CONCLUSIONS: This study extended research on the behavioral economics of conventional cigarette demand and e-liquid substitutability in a complex marketplace. The results suggest that the most efficacious method to decrease conventional cigarette purchasing and increase e-liquid purchasing may involve greatly increasing cigarette taxes while also increasing the value of e-liquid through potentially less harmful product subsidization or differential taxation.

PhenX: Environment measures for Tobacco Regulatory Research.

OBJECTIVE: A Working Group (WG) of tobacco regulatory science experts identified measures for the tobacco environment domain. METHODS: This article describes the methods by which measures were identified, selected, approved and placed in the PhenX Toolkit. FINDINGS: The WG identified 20 initial elements relevant to tobacco regulatory science and determined whether they were already in the PhenX Toolkit or whether novel or improved measures existed. In addition to the 10 complementary measures already in the Toolkit, the WG recommended 13 additional measures: aided and confirmed awareness of televised antitobacco advertising, interpersonal communication about tobacco advertising, media use, perceived effectiveness of antitobacco advertising, exposure to smoking on television and in the movies, social norms about tobacco (for adults and for youth), worksite policies, youth cigarette purchase behaviours and experiences, compliance with cigarette packaging and labelling policies, local and state tobacco control public policies, and neighbourhood-level racial/ethnic composition. Supplemental measures included youth social capital and compliance with smoke-free air laws and with point of sale and internet tobacco marketing restrictions. Gaps were identified in the areas of policy environment (public and private), communications environment, community environment and social environment (ie, the norms/acceptability of tobacco use). CONCLUSIONS: Consistent use of these tobacco environment measures will enhance rigor and reproducability of tobacco research.

PhenX: Vector measures for tobacco regulatory research.

The PhenX (Phenotypes and eXposures) Toolkit provides researchers with recommended standard consensus measures for use in epidemiological, biomedical, clinical and translational studies. To expand the depth and breadth of measures in the PhenX Toolkit, the National Institutes of Health and U.S. Food and Drug Administration have launched a project to identify 'Core' and 'Specialty' collections of measures recommended for human subjects studies in tobacco regulatory research (TRR). The current paper addresses the PhenX Toolkit TRR Vector specialty area and describes the 6-month process to identify high-priority, low-burden, scientifically supported consensus measures. Self-reported, interviewer-administered and observational measurements were considered, and input from the research community assisted in justifying the inclusion of 13 tobacco industry-relevant measures (mainly interviewer-administered or self-reported measures) in the PhenX Toolkit. Compared with measures of addiction or the use of tobacco products, assessments of many Vector factors are much newer and at an earlier stage of development. More work is needed to refine and validate measures of the spatial distribution of tobacco retailers, retail environment, price promotions and corporate social responsibility.

The Use of Excise Taxes to Reduce Tobacco, Alcohol, and Sugary Beverage Consumption.

In countries around the world, tobacco use, excessive alcohol consumption, and consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are significant contributors to the global epidemic of noncommunicable diseases. As a consequence, they contribute, as well, to excess health care costs and productivity losses. A large and growing body of research documents that taxes specific to such products, known as excise taxes, reduce consumption of these products and thereby diminish their adverse health consequences. Although such taxation has historically been motivated primarily by revenue generation, governments are increasingly using these taxes to discourage unhealthy consumption. We review the global evidence on the impact of taxes and prices on the consumption of these products and the health and social consequences. We then evaluate arguments commonly raised against these taxes, identify best practices in excise tax policy, and conclude with a summary of the current status of tobacco, alcohol, and SSB excise taxes globally.

Indexation of Tobacco Excise and Customs Duty and Smoking Prevalence Among Australian Adults, 2001-2010: A Serial Cross-sectional Study.

INTRODUCTION: Australia's excise and customs duty on tobacco has been automatically increased biannually since 1984. Increases in duty on par with inflation ensured that tobacco stayed at least as costly as other goods. This would be expected to maintain, rather than drive down, smoking prevalence. We examined the association between smoking prevalence and duty over a 10-year period. METHODS: Using monthly data from five Australian capital cities, collected from March 2001 to March 2010 among Australians aged at least 18 years, multiple linear regression modeled associations between smoking prevalence and the two components (duty and non-duty) of the recommended retail price of an average packet of cigarettes, adjusting for policy covariates. RESULTS: Prevalence declined from 23.6% in March 2001 to 17.0% in March 2010 [absolute difference 6.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 6.5 to 6.8]. Duty increased from $0.2026 to $0.2622 per cigarette over the same period. In the adjusted model, a 1-cent increase in the duty component of price was not associated with changes in prevalence (0.019; 95% CI = -0.035 to 0.028). Increased non-duty component of price was associated with a decline in prevalence (-0.027; 95% CI = -0.052 to -0.002). This effect was stronger when changes in income were controlled for. CONCLUSIONS: In line with expectations, inflation-adjusted duty was not associated with changes in smoking prevalence, but it may have prevented upward pressure on prevalence that increasing affordability could have exerted. Frequent increases in duty greater than the growth in both wages and goods would more effectively reduce smoking than regular indexation. IMPLICATIONS: Few countries inflation-adjusted excise duty to ensure that tobacco products do not become more affordable; however, Australia experienced a decade of inflation adjustment alone, enabling the impact of this policy to be studied. This study shows that inflation-adjusted duty likely did prevent tobacco becoming more affordable and that indexation was associated with declines in smoking when tobacco companies over-shifted the duty rises (ie, increased price over and above duty rises).The study also suggests that frequent increases in taxation that exceed both wage growth and increases in costliness of other goods are needed to prompt increased rates of quitting.

Tobacco taxation, illegal cigarette supply and geography: findings from the ITC Uruguay Surveys.

BACKGROUND: In Uruguay, real tobacco taxes increased significantly during 2005-2010 and 2014-2017 and decreased during 2010-2014. The effects of these tax changes on illegal and legal cigarette usage differed significantly when we compared cities in the middle and south of the country with cities on the border. OBJECTIVE: This paper analyses whether supply side factors such as geographical location, distribution networks and the effectiveness of tobacco control play a significant role in sales and use of illegal cigarettes when tobacco taxes change, particularly given the price gap between legal and lower-priced illegal cigarettes. METHODS: Using the International Tobacco Control Evaluation Project Uruguay Survey data (2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014), choices among illegal, legal and roll-your-own cigarettes are estimated as a function of smokers' geographical location, an indicator of illegal cigarette supply, and controlling for socioeconomic and demographic variables. Smoking behaviours in Montevideo, Durazno and Maldonado were compared with those in two border cities, Salto and Rivera, where illegal cigarette prevalence may differ. FINDINGS: An increase in taxes on manufactured legal and roll-your-own cigarettes increased the odds that smokers in cities near the borders and women switched down to illegal cigarettes. City geographical location, controls effectiveness and distribution networks may play a significant role in accessibility of illegal cigarettes. To improve the effectiveness of increased taxes and prices in reducing smoking, policy-makers may consider specific policies intended to reduce access to illegal cigarettes, such as ratification and effective implementation of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products of WHO.

Association between tobacco prices and smoking onset: evidence from the TCP India Survey.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use is prevalent among youth and adults in India. However, direct evidence on how increasing taxes or prices affect tobacco use onset is scarce. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the associations between cigarette and bidi prices and smoking onset in India, and how these associations differ by socioeconomic status. METHODOLOGY: The Wave 1 of the Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation India Survey by the International Tobacco Control Project contains information on the age at smoking onset for cigarettes and bidis. Using this information, data were expanded to a yearly pseudo-panel dataset that tracked respondents at risk of smoking onset from 1998 to 2011. The associations between bidi prices and bidi smoking onset, between cigarette prices and cigarette smoking onset, and between bidi and cigarette prices and any smoking onset were examined using a discrete-time hazard model with a logit link function. Stratified analyses were conducted to examine the difference in these associations by rural versus urban division. RESULTS: We found that higher bidi prices were significantly associated with a lowered hazard of bidi smoking onset (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.51). Higher cigarette prices were significantly (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92) associated with a lowered hazard of cigarette smoking onset among urban residents, but this association was non-significant when SEs were clustered at the state level. In addition, the association between increasing bidis prices and lowered hazards of bidi smoking onset was greater for urban residents than for rural ones (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Under the new regime of a central goods and service system, policymakers may need to raise the prices of tobacco products sufficiently to curb smoking onset.

Association between tax structure and cigarette consumption: findings from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC) Project.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies show that greater price variability and more opportunities for tax avoidance are associated with tax structures that depart from a specific uniform one. These findings indicate that tax structures other than a specific uniform one may lead to more cigarette consumption. OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to examine how cigarette tax structure is associated with cigarette consumption. METHODS: We used survey data taken from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project in 17 countries to conduct the analysis. Self-reported cigarette consumption was aggregated to average measures for each surveyed country and wave. The effect of tax structures on cigarette consumption was estimated using generalised estimating equations after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, average taxes and year fixed effects. FINDINGS: Our study provides important empirical evidence of a relationship between tax structure and cigarette consumption. We find that a change from a specific to an ad valorem structure is associated with a 6%-11% higher cigarette consumption. In addition, a change from uniform to tiered structure is associated with a 34%-65% higher cigarette consumption. The results are consistent with existing evidence and suggest that a uniform and specific tax structure is the most effective tax structure for reducing tobacco consumption.

Trend in the affordability of tobacco products in Bangladesh: findings from the ITC Bangladesh Surveys.

BACKGROUND: The price of tobacco products in relation to the income of tobacco users-affordability-is recognised as a key determinant of tobacco use behaviour. The effectiveness of a price increase as a deterrent to tobacco use depends on how much price increases in relation to the income of the potential users. The aim of this paper is to examine the distribution of and trends in the affordability of tobacco products in Bangladesh. METHOD: Using four waves of International Tobacco Control Survey data on Bangladesh, this study measures affordability of tobacco products at the individual level as the ratio of self-reported price and self-reported income. The trends in affordability by brand categories of cigarettes and of bidi and smokeless tobacco are estimated using multivariate linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Despite significant increase in price, the affordability of cigarettes increased between 2009 and 2014-2015 due to income growth outpacing price increase. The increase was disproportionately larger for more expensive brands. The affordability of bidis increased over this period as well. The affordability of smokeless tobacco products remained unchanged between 2011-2012 and 2014-2015. CONCLUSION: The tax increases that were implemented during 2009-2015 were not enough to increase tobacco product prices sufficiently to outweigh the effect of income growth, and to reduce tobacco consumption. The findings from this research inform policymakers that in countries experiencing rapid economic growth, significant tax increases are needed to counteract the effect of income growth, in order for the tax increases to be effective in reducing tobacco use.

A comprehensive examination of own- and cross-price elasticities of tobacco and nicotine replacement products in the U.S.

While much is known about the demand for cigarettes, research on the demand for non-cigarette tobacco products and the cross-price impacts among those products is limited. This study aims to comprehensively examine the own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for tobacco and nicotine replacement products (NRPs) in the U.S. We analyzed market-level quarterly data on sales and prices of 15 different types of tobacco products and NRPs from 2007 to 2014, compiled from retail store scanner data. Fixed effects models with controls were used to estimate their own-price elasticities and cross-price elasticities between cigarettes and the other 14 products. Our results show that, except for cigars, the demand for combustible tobacco products was generally elastic, with the estimated own-price elasticity >1 (10% increase in prices reduces sales by >10%). The own-price elasticities for smokeless tobacco products were smaller than those for combustible tobacco, although not always significant. The demand for electronic cigarettes and NRPs was found to be elastic. The cross-price elasticities with respect to cigarettes were positive for cigarillos, little cigars, loose tobacco, pipe tobacco, electronic cigarettes and NRPs, but only results for little cigars, loose tobacco, pipe tobacco, and dissolvable lozenges were consistently significant. Our findings suggest demand for tobacco products and NRPs was responsive to changes in their own prices. Substitutions or positive cross-price impacts between cigarettes and certain other products exist. It is important that tobacco control policies take into account both own- and cross-price impacts among tobacco products and NRTs.

The Association Between State Value-Added Taxes and Tobacco Use in India-Evidence From GATS and TCP India Survey.

Introduction: State value-added taxes (VAT) on tobacco products have been increased significantly in recent years in India. Evidence on how these VATs were associated with smoking is highly needed. Methods: State bidi and cigarette VAT rates were linked to Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) India 2009-2010 and Tobacco Control Policy (TCP) India Survey waves 1 (2010-2011) and 2 (2012-2013), respectively. These linked data were used to analyze the associations between bidi VAT rates and bidi smoking, between cigarette VAT rates and cigarette smoking, and between the two VAT rates and dual use of bidis and cigarettes. Weighted logistic regressions were employed to examine GATS cross-sectional data, whereas generalized estimating equations (GEE) were employed to examine longitudinal TCP data. We further stratified the analyses by gender. Results: A 10% increase in cigarette VAT rates was associated with a 6.5% (p < .001) decrease in dual use of cigarettes and bidis among adults and a 0.9% decrease (p < .05) in cigarette smoking among males in TCP; and with a 21.6% decrease (p < .05) in dual use among adults and a 17.2% decrease (p < .001) in cigarette smoking among males in GATS. TCP analyses controlling for state fixed effects are less likely to be biased and indicate a cigarette price elasticity of -0.44. As female smoking prevalence was extremely low, these associations were nonsignificant for females. Conclusions: Higher state cigarette VAT rates in India were significantly associated with lower cigarette smoking and lower dual use of cigarettes and bidis. Increasing state VAT rates may significantly reduce smoking in India. Implications: Both Global Adult Tobacco Survey and Tobacco Control Policy (TCP) India datasets suggest that higher state cigarette value-added tax rates were significantly associated with lower male cigarette smoking and lower dual use of cigarettes and bidis among all adults in India. TCP analyses indicate a cigarette price elasticity of -0.44. As shown in this study, state tobacco taxes in the current taxation system are likely effective in reducing smoking. Given this, a future central goods and service tax (GST) system could consider keeping states' authority in implementing local tobacco taxes or designing a GST system that is equally or more effective in reducing tobacco use.

The impact of flavour, device type and warning messages on youth preferences for electronic nicotine delivery systems: evidence from an online discrete choice experiment.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of flavour, device type and health warning messages on youth preference for electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), and to provide evidence and data to inform the Food and Drug Administration's potential regulatory actions on ENDS. DESIGN: An online discrete choice experiment was conducted in September 2015. Each participant was given nine choice sets and asked to choose one out of two alternative ENDS products, with varying characteristics in three attributes (flavour, device type and warning message). The impact of the attributes on the probability of choosing ENDS was analysed using conditional and nested logit regressions, controlling for individual sociodemographic characteristics and current smoking status. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A general population sample of 515 participants (50 ever-users and 465 never-users of ENDS) aged 14-17 years were recruited to complete the experiment using an online panel. RESULTS: Fruit/sweets/beverage flavours significantly increase the probability of choosing ENDS among youth (p<0.01 for never-users and <0.1 for ever-users) and flavour has the most pronounced impact among three attributes. Among never-users, menthol flavour also increases (p<0.05) the probability of choosing ENDS compared with tobacco flavour. Vaping devices that are modifiable, compared with cigarette-like e-cigarettes, increase (p<0.05) the probability of choosing ENDS among adolescent never-users. Warning messages reduce (p<0.01) the probability of choosing ENDS among never-users. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Restricting fruit/sweets/beverage flavours in ENDS, regulating modifiable vaping devices and adopting strong health warning messages may reduce the uptake of ENDS among youth.

Global evidence on the effect of point-of-sale display bans on smoking prevalence.

BACKGROUND: Since Iceland became the first country to impose a ban on point-of-sale (POS) tobacco product displays in 2001, 20 countries have implemented POS display bans as of 2016. This study examined the effect that POS display bans have on smoking prevalence. METHODS: Data were sourced from Euromonitor International and the WHO MPOWER package for 2007-2014 from 77 countries worldwide. generalised linear models with country and year fixed effects were estimated to analyse the effect of POS display bans on smoking prevalence. RESULTS: Having a POS display ban reduced overall adult daily smoking, male smoking and female smoking by about 7%, 6% and 9%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Having a POS display ban is likely to reduce smoking prevalence and generate public health benefits.