Risk of Incident Asthma Among Young Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Children from Age 3 to 7 Years in a Northern California Healthcare System.

Incident childhood asthma risk has not been examined among diverse Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander subgroups. In a large California healthcare system, incident asthma was higher among young Filipino/a, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, and South Asian children compared with non-Hispanic White children, whereas Chinese and Japanese children were similar.

Risk of complete atypical femur fracture with Oral bisphosphonate exposure beyond three years.

BACKGROUND: Bisphosphonate (BP) therapy has been associated with atypical femur fracture (AFF). However, the threshold of treatment duration leading to increased AFF risk is unclear. In a retrospective cohort of older women initiating BP, we compared the AFF risk associated with treatment for at least three years to the risk associated with treatment less than three years. METHODS: We used observational data from a large population of female members of an integrated healthcare system who initiated oral BP during 2002-2014. Women were retrospectively followed for incident AFF confirmed by radiologic adjudication. Demographic data, pharmacologic exposures, comorbidity, bone density, and fracture history were ascertained from electronic health records. Inverse probability weighting was used to estimate risk differences comparing the cumulative incidence (risk) of AFF if women discontinued BP within three years to the cumulative incidence of AFF if women continued BP for three or more years, adjusting for potential time-dependent confounding by the aforementioned factors. RESULTS: Among 87,820 women age 45-84 years who initiated BP (mean age 68.6, median T-score - 2.6, 14% with prior major osteoporotic fracture), 16,180 continued BP for three or more years. Forty-six confirmed AFFs occurred during follow-up in the two groups. AFF-free survival was greater for BP treatment < 3 years compared to treatment ≥3 years (p = 0.004 comparing areas under survival curves). At five years, the risk of AFF was 27 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval, CI: 8-46) if women received BP treatment < 3 years and 120 per 100,000 (95% CI: 56-183) if women received BP treatment ≥3 years (risk difference 93 per 100,000, 95% CI: 30-160). By ten years, the risks were 27 (95% CI: 8-46) and 363 (95% CI: 132-593) per 100,000 for BP treatment < 3 and ≥ 3 years, respectively (risk difference 336 per 100,000, 95% CI: 110-570). CONCLUSIONS: Bisphosphonate treatment for 3 or more years was associated with greater risk of AFF than treatment for less than 3 years. Although AFFs are uncommon among BP-treated women, this increased risk should be considered when counseling women about long-term BP use. Future studies should further characterize the dose-response relationship between BP duration and incident AFF and identify patients at highest risk.

The Epidemiology of Metatarsal Fractures Among Older Females With Bisphosphonate Exposure.

Bisphosphonates (BP) are used to treat osteoporosis, although rare atypical femur fractures have occurred with long-term exposure, especially among Asians. Metatarsal fractures have also been reported with atypical femur fracture. We examined the epidemiology of metatarsal fractures among 48,390 females aged ≥50 years who initiated oral BP and were followed for a median 7.7 years, including 68 females who experienced an atypical femur fracture. Incident metatarsal fractures after BP initiation were identified by clinical diagnoses and validated by record review. The association of BP, clinical risk factors, race/ethnicity, and metatarsal fracture was examined by using Cox proportional hazard analyses. Among 1123 females with incident metatarsal fracture, 61.0% had an isolated fifth metatarsal fracture. The incidence of metatarsal fracture was 312 per 100,000 person-years of follow-up and was substantially lower for Asians. The adjusted relative rate for metatarsal fractures was 0.5 (95% confidence interval 0.4 to 0.6) for Asians compared with whites. Younger age, prior fracture, other risk factors, and current BP were associated with an increased relative rate of metatarsal fracture, but BP duration was not. Females with atypical femur fracture were not more likely to experience metatarsal fracture (2.9% versus 2.3%, p = .7), but only 68 females had an atypical fracture and stress fracture of the metatarsals was not examined. Except for age, the demographic profile for metatarsal fracture after initiating BP was similar to that for osteoporotic fracture, with Asians at a much lower risk. Although metatarsal fractures were not associated with BP duration or atypical femur fracture, the subset of metatarsal stress fractures was not specifically examined.

The Relationship Between Prescription Copayments and Contraceptive Adherence in a New-user Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Contraceptive nonadherence is an important contributor to unintended pregnancy in the United States. While the elimination of patient cost sharing has been cited as means to improve contraceptive access, little is known about the relationship between cost sharing and ongoing adherence and continuation of chosen methods. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between copayment amount and adherence to pharmacy-dispensed contraception in young women. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 39,142 women ages 19-29 with a new prescription for the contraceptive pill, patch, or ring at Kaiser Permanente Northern California during 2011-2014. We examined 12-month nonadherence as measured by timely prescription refills and used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between copayment amount and the risk of nonadherence. RESULTS: Ninety-four percent of women used the pill, and 6% used the patch or ring. Forty percent of patients had no copayment and 25% had a copayment of ≥$30. Nearly 75% of women were nonadherent during the study period. In 2013 and 2014, women with a copayment had a 9% increased risk of nonadherence (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.04, 1.14) compared with women with no copayment. CONCLUSIONS: Prescription copayments may serve as a barrier to adherence of pharmacy-dispensed contraception. Given recent changes to Affordable Care Act contraceptive coverage requirement, these findings can be used to support state-level and health system-level policies for no-cost contraception, and to determine the potential public health impact of this policy change.

Challenges of fracture risk assessment in Asian and Black women.

OBJECTIVES: Bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk calculators (eg, the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool [FRAX]) guide primary prevention care in postmenopausal women. BMD scores use non-Hispanic White (NHW) reference data for T-score classification, whereas FRAX incorporates BMD, clinical risk factors, and population differences when calculating risk. This study compares findings among Asian, Black, and NHW women who underwent osteoporosis screening in a US health care system. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study. METHODS: Asian, Black, and NHW women aged 65 to 75 years who underwent BMD testing (with no recent fracture, osteoporosis therapy, metastatic cancer, multiple myeloma, metabolic bone disorders, or kidney replacement therapy) were compared across the following measures: femoral neck BMD (FN-BMD) T-score (normal ≥ -1, osteoporosis ≤ -2.5), high FRAX 10-year hip fracture risk (FRAX-Hip ≥ 3%), FRAX risk factors, and diabetes status. RESULTS: Among 3640 Asian women, 23.8% had osteoporosis and 8.7% had FRAX-Hip scores of at least 3% (34.5% among those with osteoporosis). Among 11,711 NHW women, 12.3% had osteoporosis and 17.2% had FRAX-Hip scores of at least 3% (84.8% among those with osteoporosis). Among 1711 Black women, 68.1% had normal FN-BMD, 4.1% had BMD-defined osteoporosis, and 1.8% had FRAX-Hip scores of at least 3% (32.4% among those with osteoporosis). Fracture risk factors differed by group. Diabetes was 2-fold more prevalent in Black and Asian (35% and 36%, respectively) vs NHW (16%) women. CONCLUSIONS: A large subset of Asian women have discordant BMD and FRAX scores, presenting challenges in osteoporosis management. Furthermore, FN-BMD and especially FRAX scores identified few Black women at high fracture risk warranting treatment. Studies should examine whether fracture risk assessment can be optimized in understudied racial minority populations, particularly when findings are discordant.

Population trends in the incidence and outcomes of acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have characterized recent population trends in the incidence and outcomes of myocardial infarction. METHODS: We identified patients 30 years of age or older in a large, diverse, community-based population who were hospitalized for incident myocardial infarction between 1999 and 2008. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for myocardial infarction overall and separately for ST-segment elevation and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Patient characteristics, outpatient medications, and cardiac biomarker levels during hospitalization were identified from health plan databases, and 30-day mortality was ascertained from administrative databases, state death data, and Social Security Administration files. RESULTS: We identified 46,086 hospitalizations for myocardial infarctions during 18,691,131 person-years of follow-up from 1999 to 2008. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of myocardial infarction increased from 274 cases per 100,000 person-years in 1999 to 287 cases per 100,000 person-years in 2000, and it decreased each year thereafter, to 208 cases per 100,000 person-years in 2008, representing a 24% relative decrease over the study period. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction decreased throughout the study period (from 133 cases per 100,000 person-years in 1999 to 50 cases per 100,000 person-years in 2008, P<0.001 for linear trend). Thirty-day mortality was significantly lower in 2008 than in 1999 (adjusted odds ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.65 to 0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Within a large community-based population, the incidence of myocardial infarction decreased significantly after 2000, and the incidence of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction decreased markedly after 1999. Reductions in short-term case fatality rates for myocardial infarction appear to be driven, in part, by a decrease in the incidence of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and a lower rate of death after non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

Vitamin D Status among Women of Different Asian Subgroups Initiating Osteoporosis Therapy.

Among 1866 Asian women (901 Filipina women, 654 Chinese women, and 311 Japanese women) who had vitamin D assessment prior to initiation of osteoporosis therapy, Filipina women had a lower prevalence of vitamin D deficiency compared to Chinese women, despite higher body mass index. In multivariable analyses that adjusted for age, body mass index, and smoking status, the relative risk of low vitamin D was significantly higher for Chinese women (relative risk 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1-1.7) but not Japanese women (relative risk 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.9-1.6). The 40% higher risk of low Vitamin D in Chinese compared to Filipina women emphasizes the importance of disaggregating Asian race when examining nutritional health attributes.

Sex- and ethnic-specific patterns in the incidence of hip fracture among older US Asian and non-Hispanic White adults.

BACKGROUND: Asian and Pacific Islander (Asian/PI) adults have lower hip fracture incidence than non-Hispanic White (NHW) adults, but data regarding Asian/PI subgroups are limited. We compared hip fracture incidence among older US Asian/PI and NHW populations, including ethnic subgroup differences. METHODS: Using observational data from a California healthcare system, we identified Asian/PI and NHW adults aged ≥50 years (2000-2019) and followed subjects to 2021 for hip fracture determined by principal/primary hospital diagnosis or by secondary hospital diagnosis with hip/femur procedure codes. Age-adjusted hip fracture incidence was calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Log-Poisson regression was used to determine fracture incidence rate ratios (IRRs, [CI]; NHW or Chinese as reference) adjusting for age and year. RESULTS: Among 215,359 Asian/PI and 776,839 NHW women, hip fracture incidence was 1.34 (1.28-1.40) and 2.97 (2.94-3.01) per 1000 person-years, respectively, with IRR 0.45 (0.43-0.47). Among 188,328 Asian/PI and 697,046 NHW men, hip fracture incidence was 0.62 (0.58-0.67) and 1.81 (1.78-1.84) per 1000 person-years, respectively, with IRR 0.34 (0.32-0.37). For the four largest Asian/PI subgroups, Filipina women (IRR 0.85 [0.75-0.96]) had lower, and Japanese (IRR 1.36 [1.20-1.54]) and South Asian (IRR 1.36 [1.07-1.72]) women had higher hip fracture incidence compared to Chinese women. Hip fracture incidence was only higher among South Asian (IRR 1.61 [1.21-2.14]) compared to Chinese men. CONCLUSION: Hip fracture incidence among US Asian/PI adults was 55% (women) and 66% (men) lower than NHW adults, but incidence varied by Asian/PI subgroup. The heterogeneity among Asian/PI adults highlights the importance of examining fracture risk by ethnic subgroup.

Breast arterial calcification is associated with incident atrial fibrillation among older but not younger post-menopausal women.

Aims: The goal of this study was to examine the association of breast arterial calcification (BAC) presence and quantity with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in a large cohort of post-menopausal women. Methods and results: We conducted a longitudinal cohort study among women free of clinically overt cardiovascular disease and AF at baseline (between October 2012 and February 2015) when they attended mammography screening. Atrial fibrillation incidence was ascertained using diagnostic codes and natural language processing. Among 4908 women, 354 incident cases of AF (7%) were ascertained after a mean (standard deviation) of 7 (2) years of follow-up. In Cox regression adjusting for a propensity score for BAC, BAC presence vs. absence was not significantly associated with AF [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.89-1.42; P = 0.34]. However, a significant (a priori hypothesized) age by BAC interaction was found (P = 0.02) such that BAC presence was not associated with incident AF in women aged 60-69 years (HR = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.63-1.15; P = 0.26) but was significantly associated with incident AF in women aged 70-79 years (HR = 1.75; 95% CI, 1.21-2.53; P = 0.003). No evidence of dose-response relationship between BAC gradation and AF was noted in the entire cohort or in age groups separately. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate, for the first time, an independent association between BAC and AF in women over age 70 years.

The association between depression and contraceptive behaviors in a diverse sample of new prescription contraception users.

OBJECTIVE: Among women initiating new prescription contraception, we investigated the relationship between recent depression and a range of contraceptive behaviors. STUDY DESIGN: We used medical and pharmacy records of 52,325 women ages 19 to 29 who initiated prescription contraception (pills, patches or rings, injectables, and long-acting reversible contraceptives) in 2014-2016 at a large integrated healthcare system in Northern California. Women had continuous enrollment for a year before and after initiating, and no records of prescription contraceptive use in the year before initiating. Depression in the year prior to initiation was dichotomized into (1) no depression indicator (reference group) or (2) depression diagnosis or redeemed antidepressant. Multinomial logistic regression models examined the associations between depression and method type initiated, and contraceptive patterns, timing of discontinuation, inconsistent use, and switching methods over a year after initiating, adjusting for sociodemographics and testing for interactions between depression and having a recent birth or abortion. RESULTS: Women with recent depression were more likely to initiate methods other than the pill, and the association was stronger for patches or rings vs pills among those with a recent birth compared to those without. Among women initiating all methods and the pill, those with depression were more likely to discontinue their method, use it inconsistently, and switch from it than use it continuously for a year. CONCLUSION: Women with recent depression were less likely to initiate the pill; and when the pill was initiated, those with depression were more likely to discontinue use, use it inconsistently, and switch from it. IMPLICATIONS: Women with recent depression indicators should be followed closely to ensure they have the support they need to meet their reproductive goals. Those who wish to avoid pregnancy may benefit from methods that do not require daily use.

Identifying modifiable obesogenic behaviors among Latino adolescents in primary pediatric care.

Latino adolescents engage in more obesogenic behaviors, including sedentary behaviors and sugary drink consumption, than White adolescents. However, it is unclear whether engagement in obesogenic behaviors differs within the Latino population. Cross-sectional data were examined from Latino adolescents ages 13-17 with a well-child visit (2016-2019) in an integrated healthcare system. Adolescents self-reported on four daily obesogenic behaviors: 1) consuming < 5 servings of fruits/vegetables; 2) drinking > 1 juice/soda; 3) exercising/playing sports < 60 min; and 4) > 2 h screen time. A composite variable of ≥ 3 self-reported behaviors was constructed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations between obesogenic behaviors with age category (13-15 or 16-17 years), sex, household language preference (English/Spanish), neighborhood deprivation index (NDI quartiles), and body mass index (BMI). Among 77,514 Latino adolescents (mean age 14.7 ± 1.4; 50 % female), 23 % lived in Spanish-speaking households, 43 % resided in census tracts with the highest (most deprived) NDI quartile, and 45 % had an overweight or obese BMI. Older (vs younger) adolescents had higher odds of insufficient fruit/vegetable intake (OR 1.20; CI 1.17-1.24), greater sedentary behavior (OR 1.51; 1.46-1.56), and reporting > 2 h screen time (OR 1.07; 1.03-1.11). Adolescents in the 4th (vs 1st) NDI quartile (OR 1.34; 1.26-1.42) and those with obesity (vs healthy weight) (OR 1.55; 1.42-1.70 for class 3 obesity) had higher odds of ≥ 3 obesogenic behaviors. In conclusion, among Latino adolescents, older age, obesity, and living in more deprived neighborhoods were associated with greater obesogenic behaviors. Identifying adolescents more likely to engage in obesogenic behaviors can inform targeted lifestyle interventions.

Breast Arterial Calcification: a Novel Cardiovascular Risk Enhancer Among Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: Breast arterial calcification (BAC), a common incidental finding in mammography, has been shown to be associated with angiographic coronary artery disease and cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes. We aimed to (1) examine the association of BAC presence and quantity with hard atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) and global CVD; (2) ascertain model calibration, discrimination and reclassification of ASCVD risk; (3) assess the joint effect of BAC presence and 10-year pooled cohorts equations risk on ASCVD. METHODS: A cohort study of 5059 women aged 60-79 years recruited after attending mammography screening between October 2012 and February 2015 was conducted in a large health plan in Northern California, United States. BAC status (presence versus absence) and quantity (calcium mass mg) was determined using digital mammograms. Prespecified end points were incident hard ASCVD and a composite of global CVD. RESULTS: Twenty-six percent of women had BAC >0 mg. After a mean (SD) follow-up of 6.5 (1.6) years, we ascertained 155 (3.0%) ASCVD events and 427 (8.4%) global CVD events. In Cox regression adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors, BAC presence was associated with a 1.51 (95% CI, 1.08-2.11; P=0.02) increased hazard of ASCVD and a 1.23 (95% CI, 1.002-1.52; P=0.04) increased hazard of global CVD. While there was no evidence of dose-response association with ASCVD, a threshold effect was found for global CVD at very high BAC burden (95th percentile when BAC present). BAC status provided additional risk stratification of the pooled cohorts equations risk. We noted improvements in model calibration and reclassification of ASCVD: the overall net reclassification improvement was 0.12 (95% CI, 0.03-0.14; P=0.01) and the bias-corrected clinical-net reclassification improvement was 0.11 (95% CI, 0.01-0.22; P=0.04) after adding BAC status. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that BAC has potential utility for primary CVD prevention and, therefore, support the notion that BAC ought to be considered a risk-enhancing factor for ASCVD among postmenopausal women.

Ectopic pregnancy prevention: Further evidence of benefits of prescription contraceptives.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of ectopic pregnancy (EP) associated with prescription contraceptive use. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a retrospective cohort study of women aged 15 to 44 years at Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California during 2010 to 2019. We identified EPs and prescription contraceptive use from diagnosis, procedural, and medication codes, and natural language processing of clinical notes from electronic health records. Contraceptive use categories included combined hormonal contraceptives, intrauterine devices, depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA), progestin-only pills (POPs), implants, no method after recent discontinuation of a prescription contraceptive in the last 12 months, and no method after discontinuation of a prescription contraceptive more than 12 months ago or no use of prescription contraceptives during the study period. Contraceptive use was updated as women started, stopped, or changed methods. An EP was attributed to a contraceptive method if it occurred 14 days after starting and up to 42 days after stopping a method. Age-adjusted EP incidence and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated per 10,000 woman-years overall and by contraceptive category. RESULTS: There were 11,436 EPs among 3,204,118 women with 11,909,842 woman-years of follow-up for an overall EP incidence of 9.5 per 10,000 woman-years (95%CI 9.3-9.6). The majority of EPs (9662; 84.5%) occurred during no prescription contraceptive use. EP incidence was lowest during DMPA (1.8 per 10,000 woman-years [95%CI 1.2-2.5]) or implant (2.0 per 10,000 woman-years [95%CI 1.2-3.3]) use, and higher during POP use at 15.2 (95%CI 12.2-19.6); however, incidence was highest after recent discontinuation of a prescription contraceptive (20.6 per 10,000 woman-years [95%CI 19.7-21.4]). CONCLUSIONS: EP incidence is lower with prescription contraceptive use than with nonuse. IMPLICATIONS: All prescription contraceptives, including POPs are protective of EP.

The Improving Risk Informed HPV Screening (IRIS) Study: Design and Baseline Characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer screening with high-risk human papillomavirus (HrHPV) testing is being introduced. Most HrHPV infections are transient, requiring triage tests to identify individuals at highest risk for progression to cervical cancer. Head-to-head comparisons of available strategies for screening and triage are needed. Endometrial and ovarian cancers could be amenable to similar testing. METHODS: Between 2016 and 2020, discarded cervical cancer screening specimens from women ages 25 to 65 undergoing screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California were collected. Specimens were aliquoted, stabilized, and stored frozen. Human papillomavirus (HPV), cytology, and histopathology results as well as demographic and cofactor information were obtained from electronic medical records (EMR). Follow-up collection of specimens was conducted for 2 years, and EMR-based data collection was planned for 5 years. RESULTS: Collection of enrollment and follow-up specimens is complete, and EMR-based follow-up data collection is ongoing. At baseline, specimens were collected from 54,957 HPV-positive, 10,215 HPV-negative/Pap-positive, and 12,748 HPV-negative/Pap-negative women. Clinical history prior to baseline was available for 72.6% of individuals, of which 53.9% were undergoing routine screening, 8.6% recently had an abnormal screen, 30.3% had previous colposcopy, and 7.2% had previous treatment. As of February 2021, 55.7% had one or more colposcopies, yielding 5,563 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2), 2,756 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3), and 146 cancer histopathology diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: This robust population-based cohort study represents all stages of cervical cancer screening, management, and posttreatment follow-up. IMPACT: The IRIS study is a unique and highly relevant resource allowing for natural history studies and rigorous evaluation of candidate HrHPV screening and triage markers, while permitting studies of biomarkers associated with other gynecologic cancers.

Disparities in the Incidence of Ectopic Pregnancy in a Large Health Care System in California, 2010-2019.

IntroductionEctopic pregnancy leads to reproductive health morbidity, including greater risk of another ectopic pregnancy, infertility, and, in rare cases, mortality. Information on trends in the incidence of ectopic pregnancy in the last decade is limited. MethodsA population-based cross-sectional study of women aged 15-44 years enrolled at Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California 2010-2019 was conducted. Electronic health records were used to identify ectopic pregnancies. The crude ectopic pregnancy incidence per 1000 pregnancies (live births, induced abortions, and ectopic pregnancies) and 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated per study year, overall, and stratified by age group. The age-adjusted incidence and 95% CI was estimated per study year, overall, and stratified by race/ethnicity. Temporal trend was assessed using Poisson regression. ResultsThere were 15,537 ectopic pregnancies among 979,027 pregnancies. The overall age-adjusted ectopic pregnancy incidence was 15.8 per 1000 pregnancies, 95% CI: 15.6, 16.1. The annual incidence increased from 15.2, 95% CI: 14.4, 16.1, in 2010 to 16.4, 95% CI: 15.6, 17.2, in 2019 (p < 0.001). The overall incidence was highest among women aged 40-44 years (24.2, 95% CI: 22.7, 25.6) and non-Hispanic Black women (21.9, 95% CI: 21.0, 22.8); compared to 30-34-year-old (16.2, 95% CI: 15.7, 16.6) and non-Hispanic White (14.6, 95% CI: 14.1, 15.0) women, respectively. DiscussionThe increase in ectopic pregnancy incidence during the studied period was largely driven by increasing incidence in younger women. However, disparities in the incidence by age and race/ethnicity persisted. ConclusionEctopic pregnancy remains a significant source of reproductive health morbidity, especially for older ( >40 years) and non-Hispanic Black women.

High-sensitivity troponin I is associated with cardiovascular outcomes but not with breast arterial calcification among postmenopausal women.

Background: Prior studies support the utility of high sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification among asymptomatic populations; however, only two prior studies examined women separately. The association between hsTnI and breast arterial calcification is unknown. Methods: Cohort study of 2896 women aged 60-79 years recruited after attending mammography screening between 10/2012 and 2/2015. BAC status (presence versus absence) and quantity (calcium mass mg) was determined using digital mammograms. Pre-specified endpoints were incident coronary heart disease (CHD), ischemic stroke, heart failure and its subtypes and all CVD. Results: After 7.4 (SD = 1.7) years of follow-up, 51 CHD, 30 ischemic stroke and 46 heart failure events were ascertained. At a limit of detection of 1.6 ng/L, 98.3 of the cohort had measurable hsTnI concentration. HsTnI in the 4-10 ng/L range were independently associated of CHD (adjusted hazard ratio[aHR] = 2.78; 95% CI, 1.48-5.22; p = 0.002) and all CVD (aHR = 2.06; 95% CI, 1.37-3.09; p = 0.0005) and hsTnI over 10 ng/L was independently associated with CHD (aHR = 4.75; 95% CI, 1.83-12.3; p = 0.001), ischemic stroke (aHR = 3.81; 95% CI, 1.22-11.9; p = 0.02), heart failure (aHR = 3.29; 95% CI, 1.33-8.13; p = 0.01) and all CVD (aHR = 4.78; 95% CI, 2.66-8.59; p < 0.0001). No significant association was found between hsTnI and BAC. Adding hsTnI to a model containing the Pooled Cohorts Equation resulted in significant and clinical important improved calibration, discrimination (Δ Cindex = 6.5; p = 0.02) and reclassification (bias-corrected clinical NRI = 0.18; 95% CI, -0.13-0.49 after adding hsTnI categories). Conclusions: Our results support the consideration of hsTnI as a risk enhancing factor for CVD in asymptomatic women that could drive preventive or therapeutic decisions.

Accounting for the mortality benefit of drug-eluting stents in percutaneous coronary intervention: a comparison of methods in a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Drug-eluting stents (DES) reduce rates of restenosis compared with bare metal stents (BMS). A number of observational studies have also found lower rates of mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction with DES compared with BMS, findings not observed in randomized clinical trials. In order to explore reasons for this discrepancy, we compared outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with DES or BMS by multiple statistical methods. METHODS: We compared short-term rates of all-cause mortality and myocardial infarction for patients undergoing PCI with DES or BMS using propensity-score adjustment, propensity-score matching, and a stent-era comparison in a large, integrated health system between 1998 and 2007. For the propensity-score adjustment and stent era comparisons, we used multivariable logistic regression to assess the association of stent type with outcomes. We used McNemar's Chi-square test to compare outcomes for propensity-score matching. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2007, 35,438 PCIs with stenting were performed among health plan members (53.9% DES and 46.1% BMS). After propensity-score adjustment, DES was associated with significantly lower rates of death at 30 days (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.39 - 0.63, P < 0.001) and one year (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.49 - 0.68, P < 0.001), and a lower rate of myocardial infarction at one year (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.59 - 0.87, P < 0.001). Thirty day and one year mortality were also lower with DES after propensity-score matching. However, a stent era comparison, which eliminates potential confounding by indication, showed no difference in death or myocardial infarction for DES and BMS, similar to results from randomized trials. CONCLUSIONS: Although propensity-score methods suggested a mortality benefit with DES, consistent with prior observational studies, a stent era comparison failed to support this conclusion. Unobserved factors influencing stent selection in observational studies likely account for the observed mortality benefit of DES not seen in randomized clinical trials.

Methods for assessing fracture risk prediction models: experience with FRAX in a large integrated health care delivery system.

Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve is often used to evaluate risk models. However, reclassification tests provide an alternative assessment of model performance. We performed both evaluations on results from FRAX (World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, UK), a fracture risk tool, using Kaiser Permanente Northern California women older than 50yr with bone mineral density (BMD) measured during 1997-2003. We compared FRAX performance with and without BMD in the model. Among 94,489 women with mean follow-up of 6.6yr, 1579 (1.7%) sustained a hip fracture. Overall, AUROCs were 0.83 and 0.84 for FRAX without and with BMD, suggesting that BMD did not contribute to model performance. AUROC decreased with increasing age, and BMD contributed significantly to higher AUROC among those aged 70yr and older. Using an 81% sensitivity threshold (optimum level from receiver operating characteristic curve, corresponding to 1.2% cutoff), 35% of those categorized above were reassigned below when BMD was added. In contrast, only 10% of those categorized below were reassigned to the higher risk category when BMD was added. The net reclassification improvement was 5.5% (p<0.01). Two versions of this risk tool have similar AUROCs, but alternative assessments indicate that addition of BMD improves performance. Multiple methods should be used to evaluate risk tool performance with less reliance on AUROC alone.