Upper Reference Limits for High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T and N-Terminal Fragment of the Prohormone Brain Natriuretic Peptide in Patients With CKD.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The utility of conventional upper reference limits (URL) for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hsTnT) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains debated. We analyzed the distribution of hsTnT and NT-proBNP in people with CKD in ambulatory settings to examine the diagnostic value of conventional URL in this population. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: We studied participants of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) with CKD and no self-reported history of cardiovascular disease. EXPOSURE: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). OUTCOME: NT-proBNP and hsTnT at baseline. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: We described the proportion of participants above the conventional URL for NT-proBNP (125pg/mL) and hsTnT (14ng/L) overall and by eGFR. We then estimated 99th percentile URL for NT-proBNP and hsTnT. Using quantile regression of the 99th percentile, we modeled the association of eGFR with NT-proBNP and hsTnT. RESULTS: Among 2,312 CKD participants, 40% and 43% had levels of NT-proBNP and hsTnT above the conventional URL, respectively. In those with eGFR <30mL/min/1.73m2, 71% and 68% of participants had concentrations of NT-proBNP and hsTnT above the conventional URL, respectively. Among all CKD participants, the 99th percentile for NT-proBNP was 3,592 (95% CI, 2,470-4,849) pg/mL and for hsTnT it was 126 (95% CI, 100-144) ng/L. Each 15mL/min/1.73m2 decrement in eGFR was associated with a ~40% higher threshold for the 99th percentile of NT-proBNP (1.43 [95% CI, 1.21-1.69]) and hsTnT (1.45 [95% CI, 1.31-1.60]). LIMITATIONS: Study included ambulatory patients, and we could not test the accuracy of the URL of NT-proBNP and hsTnT in the acute care setting. CONCLUSIONS: In this ambulatory CKD population with no self-reported history of cardiovascular disease, a range of 40%-88% of participants had concentrations of NT-proBNP and hsTnT above the conventional URL, depending on eGFR strata. Developing eGFR-specific thresholds for these commonly used cardiac biomarkers in the setting of CKD may improve their utility for evaluation of suspected heart failure and myocardial infarction.

Biomarkers of Dietary Omega-6 Fatty Acids and Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Global dietary recommendations for and cardiovascular effects of linoleic acid, the major dietary omega-6 fatty acid, and its major metabolite, arachidonic acid, remain controversial. To address this uncertainty and inform international recommendations, we evaluated how in vivo circulating and tissue levels of linoleic acid (LA) and arachidonic acid (AA) relate to incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) across multiple international studies. METHODS: We performed harmonized, de novo, individual-level analyses in a global consortium of 30 prospective observational studies from 13 countries. Multivariable-adjusted associations of circulating and adipose tissue LA and AA biomarkers with incident total CVD and subtypes (coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular mortality) were investigated according to a prespecified analytic plan. Levels of LA and AA, measured as the percentage of total fatty acids, were evaluated linearly according to their interquintile range (ie, the range between the midpoint of the first and fifth quintiles), and categorically by quintiles. Study-specific results were pooled using inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was explored by age, sex, race, diabetes mellitus, statin use, aspirin use, omega-3 levels, and fatty acid desaturase 1 genotype (when available). RESULTS: In 30 prospective studies with medians of follow-up ranging 2.5 to 31.9 years, 15 198 incident cardiovascular events occurred among 68 659 participants. Higher levels of LA were significantly associated with lower risks of total CVD, cardiovascular mortality, and ischemic stroke, with hazard ratios per interquintile range of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.88-0.99), 0.78 (0.70-0.85), and 0.88 (0.79-0.98), respectively, and nonsignificantly with lower coronary heart disease risk (0.94; 0.88-1.00). Relationships were similar for LA evaluated across quintiles. AA levels were not associated with higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes; in a comparison of extreme quintiles, higher levels were associated with lower risk of total CVD (0.92; 0.86-0.99). No consistent heterogeneity by population subgroups was identified in the observed relationships. CONCLUSIONS: In pooled global analyses, higher in vivo circulating and tissue levels of LA and possibly AA were associated with lower risk of major cardiovascular events. These results support a favorable role for LA in CVD prevention.

Association of serum uromodulin with mortality and cardiovascular disease in the elderly-the Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Uromodulin (UMOD) is released by renal tubular cells into the serum (sUMOD) and urine. Lower urine UMOD has been linked to mortality and cardiovascular disease but much less is known about sUMOD. We evaluated the association of sUMOD with these outcomes in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: We measured sUMOD in a random subcohort of 933 participants enrolled in the Cardiovascular Health Study. The associations of sUMOD with all-cause mortality, incident heart failure (HF) and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD; myocardial infarction, stroke and mortality due to coronary disease or stroke) were evaluated using multivariable Cox regression, adjusting for study participants' demographics, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), albuminuria and CVD risk factors. Generalized additive models with splines were used to address the functional form of sUMOD with outcomes. Due to nonlinear associations of sUMOD with all outcomes, 2.5% of the values on either end of the sUMOD distribution were excluded from the analyses, limiting the range of sUMOD to 34.3-267.1 ng/mL. RESULTS: The mean age was 78 ± 5 years, 40% were male, sUMOD level was 127 ± 64 ng/mL, eGFR was 63 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 42% had CKD defined as eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Patients in the lower sUMOD quartiles had lower eGFR and higher albuminuria (P < 0.01, respectively). During a median follow-up of 9.9 years, 805 patients died, 283 developed HF and 274 developed CVD. In multivariable analysis, higher sUMOD was significantly associated with a lower hazard for mortality {hazard ratio [HR] 0.89 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-0.99] per 1 standard deviation (SD) higher sUMOD}, CVD [HR 0.80 (95% CI 0.67-0.96)] and the composite endpoint [HR 0.88 (95% CI 0.78-0.99)]; the association with HF was not statistically significant [HR 0.84 (95% CI 0.70-1.01)]. CONCLUSION: Higher sUMOD is independently associated with a lower risk for mortality and CVD in older adults.

Discriminative Accuracy of FEV1:FVC Thresholds for COPD-Related Hospitalization and Mortality.

Importance: According to numerous current guidelines, the diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) requires a ratio of the forced expiratory volume in the first second to the forced vital capacity (FEV1:FVC) of less than 0.70, yet this fixed threshold is based on expert opinion and remains controversial. Objective: To determine the discriminative accuracy of various FEV1:FVC fixed thresholds for predicting COPD-related hospitalization and mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Pooled Cohorts Study harmonized and pooled data from 4 US general population-based cohorts (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study; Cardiovascular Health Study; Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study; and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Participants aged 45 to 102 years were enrolled from 1987 to 2000 and received follow-up longitudinally through 2016. Exposures: Presence of airflow obstruction, which was defined by a baseline FEV1:FVC less than a range of fixed thresholds (0.75 to 0.65) or less than the lower limit of normal as defined by Global Lung Initiative reference equations (LLN). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a composite of COPD hospitalization and COPD-related mortality, defined by adjudication or administrative criteria. The optimal fixed FEV1:FVC threshold was defined by the best discrimination for these COPD-related events as indexed using the Harrell C statistic from unadjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Differences in C statistics were compared with respect to less than 0.70 and less than LLN thresholds using a nonparametric approach. Results: Among 24 207 adults in the pooled cohort (mean [SD] age at enrollment, 63 [10.5] years; 12 990 [54%] women; 16 794 [69%] non-Hispanic white; 15 181 [63%] ever smokers), complete follow-up was available for 11 077 (77%) at 15 years. During a median follow-up of 15 years, 3925 participants experienced COPD-related events over 340 757 person-years of follow-up (incidence density rate, 11.5 per 1000 person-years), including 3563 COPD-related hospitalizations and 447 COPD-related deaths. With respect to discrimination of COPD-related events, the optimal fixed threshold (0.71; C statistic for optimal fixed threshold, 0.696) was not significantly different from the 0.70 threshold (difference, 0.001 [95% CI, -0.002 to 0.004]) but was more accurate than the LLN threshold (difference, 0.034 [95% CI, 0.028 to 0.041]). The 0.70 threshold provided optimal discrimination in the subgroup analysis of ever smokers and in adjusted models. Conclusions and Relevance: Defining airflow obstruction as FEV1:FVC less than 0.70 provided discrimination of COPD-related hospitalization and mortality that was not significantly different or was more accurate than other fixed thresholds and the LLN. These results support the use of FEV1:FVC less than 0.70 to identify individuals at risk of clinically significant COPD.

Late-Life Depressive Symptoms as Partial Mediators in the Associations between Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease with Onset of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Dementia.

OBJECTIVE: To study whether depression contributes to the association between subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) and dementia, and identify the contribution's magnitude. METHODS: Among participants from the Cardiovascular Health Study Cognition Study who did not have baseline CVD-related events (N = 2,450), causal mediation methodology was implemented to examine whether late-life depressive symptoms, defined as 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression (mCES-D) Scale scores ≥8 from 2 to 3 years after baseline, partially mediated the association of baseline subclinical CVD (CAC, carotid intimal medial thickness, stenosis, and ankle brachial index) with mild cognitive impairment (MCI)/dementia onset occurring between 5 and 10 years from baseline. The total effect was decomposed into direct and indirect effects (via late-life depressive symptoms), obtained from an accelerated failure time model with weights derived from multivariable logistic regression of late-life depressive symptoms on subclinical CVD. Analyses were adjusted by baseline covariates: age, race, sex, poverty status, marital status, body mass index, smoking status, ApoE4 status, and mCES-D. RESULTS: Participants contributed 20,994 person-years of follow-up with a median follow-up time of 9.4 years. Subclinical CVD was associated with 12% faster time to MCI/dementia (time ratio [TR]: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.93). The total effect of subclinical CVD on MCI/dementia onset was decomposed into a direct effect (TR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92, 0.98) and indirect effect (TR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.97); 64.5% of the total effect was mediated by late-life depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest late-life depressive symptoms partially mediate the association of subclinical CVD with MCI/dementia onset.

Urinary uromodulin, kidney function, and cardiovascular disease in elderly adults.

Urinary uromodulin (uUMOD) is the most common secreted tubular protein in healthy adults. However, the relationship between uUMOD and clinical outcomes is still unclear. Here we measured uUMOD in 192 participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study with over a 30% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over 9 years, 54 with incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and in a random subcohort of 958 participants. The association of uUMOD with eGFR decline was evaluated using logistic regression and with incident ESRD, cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and mortality using Cox proportional regression. Mean age was 78 years and median uUMOD was 25.8 µg/ml. In a case-control study evaluating eGFR decline (192 cases and 231 controls), each 1-s.d. higher uUMOD was associated with a 23% lower odds of eGFR decline (odds ratio 0.77 (95% CI 0.62-0.96)) and a 10% lower risk of mortality (hazard ratio 0.90 (95% CI 0.83-0.98)) after adjusting for demographics, eGFR, albumin/creatinine ratio, and other risk factors. There was no risk association of uUMOD with ESRD, cardiovascular disease, or heart failure after multivariable adjustment. Thus, low uUMOD levels may identify persons at risk of progressive kidney disease and mortality above and beyond established markers of kidney disease, namely eGFR and the albumin/creatinine ratio. Future studies need to confirm these results and evaluate whether uUMOD is a marker of tubular health and/or whether it plays a causal role in preserving kidney function.

Soluble CD14: genomewide association analysis and relationship to cardiovascular risk and mortality in older adults.

OBJECTIVE: CD14 is a glycosylphosphotidylinositol-anchored membrane glycoprotein expressed on neutrophils and monocytes/macrophages that also circulates as a soluble form (sCD14). Despite the well-recognized role of CD14 in inflammation, relatively little is known about the genetic determinants of sCD14 or the relationship of sCD14 to vascular- and aging-related phenotypes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We measured baseline levels of sCD14 in >5000 European-American and black adults aged 65 years and older from the Cardiovascular Health Study, who were well characterized at baseline for atherosclerotic risk factors and subclinical cardiovascular disease, and who have been followed for clinical cardiovascular disease and mortality outcomes up to 20 years. At baseline, sCD14 generally showed strong positive correlations with traditional cardio-metabolic risk factors and with subclinical measures of vascular disease such as carotid wall thickness and ankle-brachial index (independently of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors), and was also inversely correlated with body mass index. In genomewide association analyses of sCD14, we (1) confirmed the importance of the CD14 locus on chromosome 5q21 in European-American; (2) identified a novel African ancestry-specific allele of CD14 associated with lower sCD14 in blacks; and (3) identified a putative novel association in European-American of a nonsynonymous variant of PIGC, which encodes an enzyme required for the first step in glycosylphosphotidylinositol anchor biosynthesis. Finally, we show that, like other acute phase inflammatory biomarkers, sCD14 predicts incident cardiovascular disease, and strongly and independently predicts all-cause mortality in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: CD14 independently predicts risk mortality in older adults.

Iron Deficiency and Incident Heart Failure in Older Community-Dwelling Individuals.

AIMS: Among persons with prevalent heart failure (HF), iron deficiency has been linked to HF admissions, and intravenous iron replacement improves HF outcomes. Recent studies in persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) demonstrate that iron deficiency is associated with incident HF. This study aimed to determine the relationship of iron status with incident HF in community-dwelling older adults irrespective of their kidney function. METHODS: In this case-cohort study, 1,006 Cardiovascular Health Study participants (785 from the random sub-cohort [including 193 HF cases] and 221 additional HF cases [N = 414 total HF cases]) aged ≥ 65 years without HF (41% with CKD), we used weighted Cox models to evaluate associations of iron status with incident HF. Participants were categorized based on quartiles of transferrin saturation and ferritin as "iron replete" (27.3%), "functional iron deficiency" (7.7%), "iron deficiency" (11.8%), "mixed iron deficiency" (5.6%), "high iron" (9.3%) and "non-classified" (38.1%), consistent with prior studies. RESULTS: Compared to older persons who were iron replete, those with iron deficiency were at higher risk of incident HF (HR 1.47; 1.02-2.11) in models adjusting for demographics, HF risk factors, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Other iron categories did not associate with incident HF. The relationship of iron deficiency with incident HF did not differ by CKD status (interaction P value 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Among community-dwelling elders, iron deficiency is independently associated with incident HF, an association that was similar irrespective of CKD status. Our findings support conduct of clinical trials of iron replacement for prevention of HF in older adults with iron deficiency.

Examining the Causal Mediating Role of Cardiovascular Disease on the Effect of Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease on Cognitive Impairment via Separable Effects.

BACKGROUND: An important epidemiological question is understanding how vascular risk factors contribute to cognitive impairment. Using data from the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study, we investigated how subclinical cardiovascular disease (sCVD) relates to cognitive impairment risk and the extent to which the hypothesized risk is mediated by the incidence of clinically manifested cardiovascular disease (CVD), both overall and within apolipoprotein E-4 (APOE-4) subgroups. METHODS: We adopted a novel "separable effects" causal mediation framework that assumes that sCVD has separably intervenable atherosclerosis-related components. We then ran several mediation models, adjusting for key covariates. RESULTS: We found that sCVD increased overall risk of cognitive impairment (risk ratio [RR] = 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03, 1.44); however, there was little or no mediation by incident clinically manifested CVD (indirect effect RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.03). We also found attenuated effects among APOE-4 carriers (total effect RR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.81, 1.47; indirect effect RR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.01) and stronger findings among noncarriers (total effect RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.60; indirect effect RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.05). In secondary analyses restricting cognitive impairment to only incident dementia cases, we found similar effect patterns. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the effect of sCVD on cognitive impairment does not seem to be mediated by CVD, both overall and within APOE-4 subgroups. Our results were critically assessed via sensitivity analyses, and they were found to be robust. Future work is needed to fully understand the relationship between sCVD, CVD, and cognitive impairment.

Non-esterified fatty acids and risk of peripheral artery disease in older adults: The cardiovascular health study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Non-esterified fatty acids have been implicated in the pathogenesis of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. No longitudinal study has assessed their effects on peripheral artery disease (PAD). We determined the relationships between NEFAs and incident clinical PAD and abnormal ankle-brachial index (ABI) in a population-based cohort of older persons. METHODS: We evaluated 4575 community living participants aged >65 years who underwent measurement of circulating NEFAs in fasting specimens and ABI in 1992-1993. Participants were assessed annually for clinical PAD until 2015 and underwent repeat ABI in 1998-1999. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to model the associations between NEFAs and risk of clinical PAD and logistic regression to model the associations of NEFAs with incident abnormal ABI. RESULTS: Mean age was 74.8 years, 59% were female, and 17% were Black. NEFAs were associated with higher risk of clinical PAD in unadjusted and adjusted models. The adjusted hazard ratios for incident clinical PAD were 1.51 (95%CI = 1.06-2.13, p = 0.02) across extreme tertiles, and 1.14 (95%CI = 0.99-1.31, p = 0.08) per standard deviation higher NEFA. The corresponding odds ratios for abnormal ABI were 0.95 (95%CI = 0.69-1.32, p = 0.76) across extreme tertiles, and 1.03 (95%CI = 0.89-1.20, p = 0.68) per standard deviation higher NEFA. Relationships appeared similar irrespective of sex, race, or pre-existing cardiovascular disease, but were stronger later than earlier in follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Higher serum levels of NEFAs are significantly associated with increased likelihood of clinical PAD over long-term follow-up but not with 6-year decline in ABI. NEFAs may offer a potential target for intervention against clinical PAD.

Sex- and race-specific associations of bone mineral density with incident heart failure and its subtypes in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested an association between bone mineral density (BMD) and heart failure (HF) risk that may be race-dependent. METHODS: We evaluated the relationship between BMD and incident HF in a cohort of older adults, the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study (n = 2835), and next performed a pooled analysis involving a second older cohort, the Cardiovascular Health Study (n = 1268). Hip BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in both cohorts and spine BMD by computed tomography in a subset from Health ABC. RESULTS: In Health ABC, lower BMD at the total hip was associated with higher incident HF in Black women after multivariable adjustment. Similar associations were found for BMD at the femoral neck and spine. In both cohorts, pooled analysis again revealed an association between lower total hip BMD and increased risk of HF in Black women (HR = 1.41 per 0.1-g/cm2 decrement [95% CI = 1.23-1.62]), and showed the same to be true for White men (HR = 1.12 [1.03-1.21]). There was a decreased risk of HF in Black men (HR 0.80 [0.70-0.91]), but no relationship in White women. The associations were numerically stronger with HFpEF for Black women and White men, and with HFrEF for Black men. Findings were similar for femoral neck BMD. Sensitivity analyses delaying HF follow-up by 2 years eliminated the association in Black men. CONCLUSIONS: Lower BMD was associated with higher risk of HF and especially HFpEF in older Black women and White men, highlighting the need for additional investigation into underlying mechanisms.

Defining and Measuring Preclinical Mobility Limitation: An Expert Consensus Exercise Informed by a Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: Early change in function in older adults has been termed preclinical disability (PCD). PCD has been understudied compared to other stages of disability because it is unlikely to receive comparative priority in clinical settings. It has major implications for prevention and population health as it may be the optimal time to intervene to prevent further decline. A standardized approach to research in PCD, including a common definition and measurement approaches, is needed to advance this work. METHODS: The process to establish how PCD should be defined and measured was undertaken in 2 stages: (1) a scoping review of the literature, which was used to inform (2) a web-enabled consensus meeting with content experts. RESULTS: The scoping review and the consensus meeting support the use of the term preclinical mobility limitation (PCML) and that it should be measured using both patient-reported and performance-based measures. It was agreed that the definition of PCML should include modification of frequency and/or method of task completion, without overt disability, and that requisite mobility tasks include walking (distance and speed), stairs, and transfers. CONCLUSIONS: Currently, there are few standardized assessments that can identify PCML. PCML is the term that most clearly describes the stage where people experience a change in routine mobility tasks, without a perception of disability. Further evaluation into the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of outcome measures is needed to advance research on PCML.

Hypertension, white matter hyperintensities, and concurrent impairments in mobility, cognition, and mood: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to investigate the association between hypertension and concurrent impairments in mobility, cognition, and mood; the role of brain white matter hyperintensities in mediating this association; and the impact of these impairments on disability and mortality in elderly hypertensive individuals. METHODS AND RESULTS: -Blood pressure, gait speed, digit symbol substitution test, and the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale were measured yearly (1992-1999) on 4700 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (age: 74.7, 58% women, 17% blacks, 68% hypertension, 3600 had brain magnetic resonance imaging in 1992-1993, survival data 1992-2005). Using latent profile analysis at baseline, we found that 498 (11%) subjects had concurrent impairments and 3086 (66%) were intact on all 3 measures. Between 1992 and 1999, 651 (21%) became impaired in all 3 domains. Hypertensive individuals were more likely to be impaired at baseline (odds ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.42, P=0.01) and become impaired during the follow-up (hazard ratio=1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.66, P=0.037). A greater degree of white matter hyperintensities was associated with impairments in the 3 domains (P=0.007) and mediated the association with hypertension (P=0.19 for hypertension after adjusting for white matter hyperintensities in the model, 21% hazard ratio change). Impairments in the 3 domains increased subsequent disability with hypertension (P<0.0001). Hypertension mortality also was increased in those impaired (compared with unimpaired hypertensive individuals: HR=1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.17, P=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension increases the risk of concurrent impairments in mobility, cognition, and mood, which increases disability and mortality. This association is mediated in part by microvascular brain injury.

Modification of the association between ambient air pollution and lung function by frailty status among older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

The susceptibility of older adults to the health effects of air pollution is well-recognized. Advanced age may act as a partial surrogate for conditions associated with aging. The authors investigated whether gerontologic frailty (a clinical health status metric) modified the association between ambient level of ozone or particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm and lung function in 3,382 older adults using 7 years of follow-up data (1990-1997) from the Cardiovascular Health Study and its Environmental Factors Ancillary Study. Monthly average pollution and annual frailty assessments were related to up to 3 repeated measurements of lung function using cumulative summaries of pollution and frailty histories that accounted for duration as well as concentration. Frailty history was found to modify long-term associations of pollutants with forced vital capacity. For example, the decrease in forced vital capacity associated with a 70-ppb/month greater cumulative sum of monthly average ozone exposure was 12.3 mL (95% confidence interval: 10.4, 14.2) for a woman who had spent the prior 7 years prefrail or frail as compared with 4.7 mL (95% confidence interval: 3.8, 5.6) for a similar woman who was robust during all 7 years (interaction P < 0.001).

Patterns of 12-year change in physical activity levels in community-dwelling older women: can modest levels of physical activity help older women live longer?

Few studies have addressed changes in physical activity participation over time among the elderly. The authors hypothesized that there were distinct trajectories of physical activity level over time and identifiable predictors of such trajectories, as well as that the maintenance of regular physical activity, even below recommended levels, was associated with lower mortality risk. Using longitudinal data (1994-2009) from 433 initially high-functioning older women aged 70-79 years at baseline, a joint latent class and survival mixture model identified 4 activity trajectory classes: always active (16.6%), fast declining (19.2%), stable moderate (32.3%), and always sedentary (31.9%). Obesity, coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depressive symptoms, low self-efficacy, mobility disability, and low energy were associated with sedentary behavior and/or a fast decline in activity. Women in the fast declining and always sedentary classes had hazard ratios for death of 2.34 (95% confidence interval: 1.20, 4.59) and 3.34 (95% confidence interval: 1.72, 6.47), respectively, compared with the always active class; no mortality difference was found between the stable moderate and always active groups (hazard ratio = 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 0.63, 2.47). Our findings suggest that physical activity does not have to be vigorous to be beneficial and that the gain may be the greatest among women who reported the lowest levels of activity.

Pooled Cohort Probability Score for Subclinical Airflow Obstruction.

Rationale: Early detection of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a public health priority. Airflow obstruction is the single most important risk factor for adverse COPD outcomes, but spirometry is not routinely recommended for screening. Objectives: To describe the burden of subclinical airflow obstruction (SAO) and to develop a probability score for SAO to inform potential detection and prevention programs. Methods: Lung function and clinical data were harmonized and pooled across nine U.S. general population cohorts. Adults with respiratory symptoms, inhaler use, or prior diagnosis of COPD or asthma were excluded. A probability score for prevalent SAO (forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity < 0.70) was developed via hierarchical group-lasso regularization from clinical variables in strata of sex and smoking status, and its discriminative accuracy for SAO was assessed in the pooled cohort as well as in an external validation cohort (NHANES [National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey] 2011-2012). Incident hospitalizations and deaths due to COPD (respiratory events) were defined by adjudication or administrative criteria in four of nine cohorts. Results: Of 33,546 participants (mean age 52 yr, 54% female, 44% non-Hispanic White), 4,424 (13.2%) had prevalent SAO. The incidence of respiratory events (Nat-risk = 14,024) was threefold higher in participants with SAO versus those without (152 vs. 39 events/10,000 person-years). The probability score, which was based on six commonly available variables (age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, and smoking pack-years) was well calibrated and showed excellent discrimination in both the testing sample (C-statistic, 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80-0.82) and in NHANES (C-statistic, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.86). Among participants with predicted probabilities ⩾ 15%, 3.2 would need to undergo spirometry to detect one case of SAO. Conclusions: Adults with SAO demonstrate excess respiratory hospitalization and mortality. A probability score for SAO using commonly available clinical risk factors may be suitable for targeting screening and primary prevention strategies.

Higher Serum Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Levels Are Associated With a Lower Risk of Cognitive Decline: A 2-Year Follow Up Study in Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship of serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) levels with the subsequent short-term decline in cognitive functioning in community-dwelling older adults. DESIGN: Two-year prospective, observational study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The study included 405 adults aged 65-84 years, initially free of a dementia diagnosis who were living in Tokyo, Japan. METHODS: Participants underwent health assessments at baseline (2011) and follow-up (2013). Serum BDNF levels and scores from the Montreal Cognitive Assessment-Japanese version (MoCA-J) were systematically measured. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of cognitive decline between baseline and follow-up assessments in the full MoCA-J scale (operationally defined as a decrease of two or more points), as well as in MoCA-J subscales (decline of one or more points in a specific subscale), as a function of serum BDNF level, adjusting for baseline demographics, prevalent chronic diseases, and baseline cognitive scores. RESULTS: Among individuals who performed worse on the full MoCA-J at baseline (i.e., scores in the bottom quartile [≤21], which is consistent with a mild cognitive impairment status), but not among those who performed better (top 3 quartiles), those with highest baseline serum BDNF levels (top quartile) had lower odds of subsequent decline in the full MoCA-J scale than those with lowest (bottom quartile); i.e., odds ratio (OR): 0.10 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02-0.62; p = 0.013). Regarding MoCA-J subscales, adjusted odds of decline in the executive function subscale, but not in the other five subscales, were substantially low among those with highest baseline serum BDNF levels (top quartile), as compared to those with the lowest (bottom quartile), i.e., OR: 0.27 (95% CI:0.13-0.60; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Higher serum BDNF levels were associated with a lower risk of decline in cognitive function in a sample of community-dwelling older Japanese adults. Risk varied across cognitive subdomains and according to baseline cognition. This warrants further research to evaluate the added-value of serum BDNF in health promotion initiatives directed toward cognitive decline prevention in community-dwelling older adults.

Examining the causal mediating role of brain pathology on the relationship between diabetes and cognitive impairment: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

The paper examines whether diabetes mellitus leads to incident mild cognitive impairment and dementia through brain hypoperfusion and white matter disease. We performed inverse odds ratio weighted causal mediation analyses to decompose the effect of diabetes on cognitive impairment into direct and indirect effects, and we found that approximately a third of the total effect of diabetes is mediated through vascular-related brain pathology. Our findings lend support for a common aetiological hypothesis regarding incident cognitive impairment, which is that diabetes increases the risk of clinical cognitive impairment in part by impacting the vasculature of the brain.

Discrepancy in Frailty Identification: Move Beyond Predictive Validity.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the discordance in frailty classification between the frailty index (FI) and the physical frailty phenotype (PFP) and identify factors discriminating those with discordant frailty classification from each other and from those for whom the assessments agree. METHODS: A prospective observational study of older adults aged 65 and older selected from Medicare eligibility lists in four U.S. communities (n = 5,362). The PFP was measured by the Cardiovascular Health Study PFP. Participants meeting three or more of the five criteria were deemed frail. The FI was calculated as the proportion of deficits in an a priori selected set of 48 measures, and participants were classified as frail if FI is greater than 0.35. RESULTS: The prevalence of frailty was 7.0% by the PFP and 8.3% by the FI. Of the 730 deemed frail by either instrument, only 12% were in agreement, whereas 39% were classified as frail by the PFP, but not the FI, and 48% were classified as frail by the FI, but not the PFP. Participants aged 65-72 years or with greater disease burden were most likely to be characterized as being FI-frail, but not PFP-frail. The associations of frailty with age and mortality were stronger when frailty was measured by the PFP rather than the FI. CONCLUSIONS: Despite comparable frailty prevalence between the PFP and the FI, there was substantial discordance in individual-level classification, with highest agreement existing only in the most vulnerable subset. These findings suggest that there are clinically important contexts in which the PFP and the FI cannot be used interchangeably.

Intact and C-Terminal FGF23 Assays-Do Kidney Function, Inflammation, and Low Iron Influence Relationships With Outcomes?

CONTEXT: Higher fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23) concentrations are associated with heart failure and mortality in diverse populations, but the strengths of associations differ markedly depending up on which assay is used. OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate whether iron deficiency, inflammation, or kidney function account for differences in the strengths of associations between these 2 FGF23 assays with clinical outcomes. DESIGN: Case cohort study from the Cardiovascular Health Study. SETTING: A total of 844 community-dwelling individuals aged 65 years or older with and without chronic kidney disease were followed for 10 years. OUTCOMES: Outcomes included death, incident heart failure (HF), and incident myocardial infarction (MI). Exposure was baseline intact and C-terminal FGF23. Using modified Cox models, adjusting sequentially we tested whether observed associations of each assay with outcomes were attenuated by iron status, inflammation, kidney function, or their combinations. RESULTS: FGF23 measured by either assay was associated with mortality in unadjusted analysis (intact FGF23 hazard ratio [HR] per 2-fold higher 1.45; 95% CI, 1.25-1.68; C-terminal FGF23 HR 1.38; 95% CI, 1.26-1.50). Adjustment for kidney function completely attenuated associations of intact FGF23 with mortality (HR 1.00; 95% CI, 0.85-1.17), but had much less influence on the association of C-terminal FGF23, for which results remained significant after adjustment (HR 1.15; 95% CI, 1.04-1.28). Attenuation was much less with adjustment for iron status or inflammation. Results were similar for the HF end point. Neither C-terminal or intact FGF23 was associated with MI risk. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship of FGF23 with clinical end points is markedly different depending on the type of FGF23 assay used. The associations of biologically active FGF23 with clinical end points may be confounded by kidney disease, and thus much weaker than previously thought.