A statistical method for image-mediated association studies discovers genes and pathways associated with four brain disorders.

Brain imaging and genomics are critical tools enabling characterization of the genetic basis of brain disorders. However, imaging large cohorts is expensive and may be unavailable for legacy datasets used for genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Using an integrated feature selection/aggregation model, we developed an image-mediated association study (IMAS), which utilizes borrowed imaging/genomics data to conduct association mapping in legacy GWAS cohorts. By leveraging the UK Biobank image-derived phenotypes (IDPs), the IMAS discovered genetic bases underlying four neuropsychiatric disorders and verified them by analyzing annotations, pathways, and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs). A cerebellar-mediated mechanism was identified to be common to the four disorders. Simulations show that, if the goal is identifying genetic risk, our IMAS is more powerful than a hypothetical protocol in which the imaging results were available in the GWAS dataset. This implies the feasibility of reanalyzing legacy GWAS datasets without conducting additional imaging, yielding cost savings for integrated analysis of genetics and imaging.

Quantitative proteomics of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex reveals an early pattern of synaptic dysmaturation in children with idiopathic autism.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a developmental disorder with a rising prevalence and unknown etiology presenting with deficits in cognition and abnormal behavior. We hypothesized that the investigation of the synaptic component of prefrontal cortex may provide proteomic signatures that may identify the biological underpinnings of cognitive deficits in childhood ASD. Subcellular fractions of synaptosomes from prefrontal cortices of age-, brain area-, and postmortem-interval-matched samples from children and adults with idiopathic ASD vs. controls were subjected to HPLC-tandem mass spectrometry. Analysis of data revealed the enrichment of ASD risk genes that participate in slow maturation of the postsynaptic density (PSD) structure and function during early brain development. Proteomic analysis revealed down regulation of PSD-related proteins including AMPA and NMDA receptors, GRM3, DLG4, olfactomedins, Shank1-3, Homer1, CaMK2α, NRXN1, NLGN2, Drebrin1, ARHGAP32, and Dock9 in children with autism (FDR-adjusted P < 0.05). In contrast, PSD-related alterations were less severe or unchanged in adult individuals with ASD. Network analyses revealed glutamate receptor abnormalities. Overall, the proteomic data support the concept that idiopathic autism is a synaptopathy involving PSD-related ASD risk genes. Interruption in evolutionarily conserved slow maturation of the PSD complex in prefrontal cortex may lead to the development of ASD in a susceptible individual.

A Bayesian framework for modeling COVID-19 case numbers through longitudinal monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater.

Wastewater-based surveillance has become an important tool for research groups and public health agencies investigating and monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic and other public health emergencies including other pathogens and drug abuse. While there is an emerging body of evidence exploring the possibility of predicting COVID-19 infections from wastewater signals, there remain significant challenges for statistical modeling. Longitudinal observations of viral copies in municipal wastewater can be influenced by noisy datasets and missing values with irregular and sparse samplings. We propose an integrative Bayesian framework to predict daily positive cases from weekly wastewater observations with missing values via functional data analysis techniques. In a unified procedure, the proposed analysis models severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 RNA wastewater signals as a realization of a smooth process with error and combines the smooth process with COVID-19 cases to evaluate the prediction of positive cases. We demonstrate that the proposed framework can achieve these objectives with high predictive accuracies through simulated and observed real data.

A Bayesian hierarchical hidden Markov model for clustering and gene selection: Application to kidney cancer gene expression data.

We introduce a Bayesian approach for biclustering that accounts for the prior functional dependence between genes using hidden Markov models (HMMs). We utilize biological knowledge gathered from gene ontologies and the hidden Markov structure to capture the potential coexpression of neighboring genes. Our interpretable model-based clustering characterized each cluster of samples by three groups of features: overexpressed, underexpressed, and irrelevant features. The proposed methods have been implemented in an R package and are used to analyze both the simulated data and The Cancer Genome Atlas kidney cancer data.

Integrative multi-omics approach for identifying molecular signatures and pathways and deriving and validating molecular scores for COVID-19 severity and status.

BACKGROUND: There is still more to learn about the pathobiology of COVID-19. A multi-omic approach offers a holistic view to better understand the mechanisms of COVID-19. We used state-of-the-art statistical learning methods to integrate genomics, metabolomics, proteomics, and lipidomics data obtained from 123 patients experiencing COVID-19 or COVID-19-like symptoms for the purpose of identifying molecular signatures and corresponding pathways associated with the disease. RESULTS: We constructed and validated molecular scores and evaluated their utility beyond clinical factors known to impact disease status and severity. We identified inflammation- and immune response-related pathways, and other pathways, providing insights into possible consequences of the disease. CONCLUSIONS: The molecular scores we derived were strongly associated with disease status and severity and can be used to identify individuals at a higher risk for developing severe disease. These findings have the potential to provide further, and needed, insights into why certain individuals develop worse outcomes.

Bayesian integrative analysis and prediction with application to atherosclerosis cardiovascular disease.

The problem of associating data from multiple sources and predicting an outcome simultaneously is an important one in modern biomedical research. It has potential to identify multidimensional array of variables predictive of a clinical outcome and to enhance our understanding of the pathobiology of complex diseases. Incorporating functional knowledge in association and prediction models can reveal pathways contributing to disease risk. We propose Bayesian hierarchical integrative analysis models that associate multiple omics data, predict a clinical outcome, allow for prior functional information, and can accommodate clinical covariates. The models, motivated by available data and the need for exploring other risk factors of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), are used for integrative analysis of clinical, demographic, and genomics data to identify genetic variants, genes, and gene pathways likely contributing to 10-year ASCVD risk in healthy adults. Our findings revealed several genetic variants, genes, and gene pathways that are highly associated with ASCVD risk, with some already implicated in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Extensive simulations demonstrate the merit of joint association and prediction models over two-stage methods: association followed by prediction.

Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 and its variants in wastewater of tertiary care hospitals correlates with increasing case burden and outbreaks.

Wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 surveillance enables unbiased and comprehensive monitoring of defined sewersheds. We performed real-time monitoring of hospital wastewater that differentiated Delta and Omicron variants within total SARS-CoV-2-RNA, enabling correlation to COVID-19 cases from three tertiary-care facilities with >2100 inpatient beds in Calgary, Canada. RNA was extracted from hospital wastewater between August/2021 and January/2022, and SARS-CoV-2 quantified using RT-qPCR. Assays targeting R203M and R203K/G204R established the proportional abundance of Delta and Omicron, respectively. Total and variant-specific SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater was compared to data for variant specific COVID-19 hospitalizations, hospital-acquired infections, and outbreaks. Ninety-six percent (188/196) of wastewater samples were SARS-CoV-2 positive. Total SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater increased in tandem with total prevalent cases (Delta plus Omicron). Variant-specific assessments showed this increase to be mainly driven by Omicron. Hospital-acquired cases of COVID-19 were associated with large spikes in wastewater SARS-CoV-2 and levels were significantly increased during outbreaks relative to nonoutbreak periods for total SARS-CoV2, Delta and Omicron. SARS-CoV-2 in hospital wastewater was significantly higher during the Omicron-wave irrespective of outbreaks. Wastewater-based monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants represents a novel tool for passive COVID-19 infection surveillance, case identification, containment, and potentially to mitigate viral spread in hospitals.

A two-level copula joint model for joint analysis of longitudinal and competing risks data.

In this article, we propose a two-level copula joint model to analyze clinical data with multiple disparate continuous longitudinal outcomes and multiple event-times in the presence of competing risks. At the first level, we use a copula to model the dependence between competing latent event-times, in the process constructing the submodel for the observed event-time, and employ the Gaussian copula to construct the submodel for the longitudinal outcomes that accounts for their conditional dependence; these submodels are glued together at the second level via the Gaussian copula to construct a joint model that incorporates conditional dependence between the observed event-time and the longitudinal outcomes. To have the flexibility to accommodate skewed data and examine possibly different covariate effects on quantiles of a non-Gaussian outcome, we propose linear quantile mixed models for the continuous longitudinal data. We adopt a Bayesian framework for model estimation and inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. We examine the performance of the copula joint model through a simulation study and show that our proposed method outperforms the conventional approach assuming conditional independence with smaller biases and better coverage probabilities of the Bayesian credible intervals. Finally, we carry out an analysis of clinical data on renal transplantation for illustration.

Expert elicitation of risk factors for progression to dementia in individuals with mild cognitive impairment.

INTRODUCTION: This study assesses experts' beliefs about important predictors of developing dementia in persons with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). METHODS: Structured expert elicitation, a methodology to quantify expert knowledge, was used to elicit the most important risk factors for developing dementia. We recruited 11 experts (6 neurologists, 3 geriatricians, and 2 psychiatrists). Ten experts fully participated in introductory meetings, two rounds of surveys, and discussion meetings. The data from these ten experts were utilized for this study. RESULTS: The expert elicitation identified age, CSF analysis, fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) findings, hippocampal atrophy, MoCA (or MMSE) score, parkinsonism, apathy, psychosis, informant report of cognitive symptoms, and global atrophy as the ten most important predictors of progressing to dementia in persons with MCI. DISCUSSION: Several dementia predictors are not routinely collected in existing registries, observational studies, or usual care. This might partially explain the low uptake of existing published dementia risk scores in clinical practice.

Dementia risk prediction in individuals with mild cognitive impairment: a comparison of Cox regression and machine learning models.

BACKGROUND: Cox proportional hazards regression models and machine learning models are widely used for predicting the risk of dementia. Existing comparisons of these models have mostly been based on empirical datasets and have yielded mixed results. This study examines the accuracy of various machine learning and of the Cox regression models for predicting time-to-event outcomes using Monte Carlo simulation in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). METHODS: The predictive accuracy of nine time-to-event regression and machine learning models were investigated. These models include Cox regression, penalized Cox regression (with Ridge, LASSO, and elastic net penalties), survival trees, random survival forests, survival support vector machines, artificial neural networks, and extreme gradient boosting. Simulation data were generated using study design and data characteristics of a clinical registry and a large community-based registry of patients with MCI. The predictive performance of these models was evaluated based on three-fold cross-validation via Harrell's concordance index (c-index), integrated calibration index (ICI), and integrated brier score (IBS). RESULTS: Cox regression and machine learning model had comparable predictive accuracy across three different performance metrics and data-analytic conditions. The estimated c-index values for Cox regression, random survival forests, and extreme gradient boosting were 0.70, 0.69 and 0.70, respectively, when the data were generated from a Cox regression model in a large sample-size conditions. In contrast, the estimated c-index values for these models were 0.64, 0.64, and 0.65 when the data were generated from a random survival forest in a large sample size conditions. Both Cox regression and random survival forest had the lowest ICI values (0.12 for a large sample size and 0.18 for a small sample size) among all the investigated models regardless of sample size and data generating model. CONCLUSION: Cox regression models have comparable, and sometimes better predictive performance, than more complex machine learning models. We recommend that the choice among these models should be guided by important considerations for research hypotheses, model interpretability, and type of data.

A Bayesian integrative approach for multi-platform genomic data: A kidney cancer case study.

Integration of genomic data from multiple platforms has the capability to increase precision, accuracy, and statistical power in the identification of prognostic biomarkers. A fundamental problem faced in many multi-platform studies is unbalanced sample sizes due to the inability to obtain measurements from all the platforms for all the patients in the study. We have developed a novel Bayesian approach that integrates multi-regression models to identify a small set of biomarkers that can accurately predict time-to-event outcomes. This method fully exploits the amount of available information across platforms and does not exclude any of the subjects from the analysis. Through simulations, we demonstrate the utility of our method and compare its performance to that of methods that do not borrow information across regression models. Motivated by The Cancer Genome Atlas kidney renal cell carcinoma dataset, our methodology provides novel insights missed by non-integrative models.

miRNA-target gene regulatory networks: A Bayesian integrative approach to biomarker selection with application to kidney cancer.

The availability of cross-platform, large-scale genomic data has enabled the investigation of complex biological relationships for many cancers. Identification of reliable cancer-related biomarkers requires the characterization of multiple interactions across complex genetic networks. MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression; however, the direct relationship between a microRNA and its target gene is difficult to measure. We propose a novel Bayesian model to identify microRNAs and their target genes that are associated with survival time by incorporating the microRNA regulatory network through prior distributions. We assume that biomarkers involved in regulatory networks are likely associated with survival time. We employ non-local prior distributions and a stochastic search method for the selection of biomarkers associated with the survival outcome. We use KEGG pathway information to incorporate correlated gene effects within regulatory networks. Using simulation studies, we assess the performance of our method, and apply it to experimental data of kidney renal cell carcinoma (KIRC) obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Our novel method validates previously identified cancer biomarkers and identifies biomarkers specific to KIRC progression that were not previously discovered. Using the KIRC data, we confirm that biomarkers involved in regulatory networks are more likely to be associated with survival time, showing connections in one regulatory network for five out of six such genes we identified.

A Bayesian genomic selection approach incorporating prior feature ordering and population structures with application to coronary artery disease.

Coronary artery disease is one of the most common types of cardiovascular disease. Death from coronary heart disease is influenced by genetic factors in both women and men. In this article, we propose a novel Bayesian variable selection framework for the identification of important genetic variants associated with coronary artery disease disease status. Instead of treating each feature independently as in conventional Bayesian variable selection methods, we propose an innovative prior for the inclusion probabilities of genetic variants that accounts for their ordering structure. We assume that neighboring variants are more likely to be selected together as they tend to be highly correlated and have similar biological functions. Additionally, we propose to group participating subjects based on underlying population structure and fit separate regressions, so that the regression coefficients can better reflect different disease risks in different population groups. Our approach borrows strength across regression models through an innovative prior inspired by the Markov random fields. The proposed framework can improve variable selection and prediction performances as demonstrated in the simulation studies. We also apply the proposed framework to the CATHeterization GENetics data with binary Coronary artery disease disease status.

Development and External Validation of Partial Proportional Odds Risk Prediction Models for Cancer Stage at Diagnosis among Males and Females in Canada.

Risk prediction models for cancer stage at diagnosis may identify individuals at higher risk of late-stage cancer diagnoses. Partial proportional odds risk prediction models for cancer stage at diagnosis for males and females were developed using data from Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP). Prediction models were validated on the British Columbia Generations Project (BCGP) cohort using discrimination and calibration measures. Among ATP males, older age at diagnosis was associated with an earlier stage at diagnosis, while full- or part-time employment, prostate-specific antigen testing, and former/current smoking were associated with a later stage at diagnosis. Among ATP females, mammogram and sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy were associated with an earlier stage at diagnosis, while older age at diagnosis, number of pregnancies, and hysterectomy were associated with a later stage at diagnosis. On external validation, discrimination results were poor for both males and females while calibration results indicated that the models did not over- or under-fit to derivation data or over- or under-predict risk. Multiple factors associated with cancer stage at diagnosis were identified among ATP participants. While the prediction model calibration was acceptable, discrimination was poor when applied to BCGP data. Updating our models with additional predictors may help improve predictive performance.

Elicited clinician knowledge did not improve dementia risk prediction in individuals with mild cognitive impairment.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to develop and validate a Bayesian risk prediction model that combines research cohort data with elicited expert knowledge to predict dementia progression in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: This is a prognostic risk prediction modeling study based on cohort data (Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative [ADNI]; n = 365) of research participants with MCI and elicited expert data. Bayesian Cox models were used to combine expert knowledge and ADNI data to predict dementia progression in people with MCI. Posterior distributions were obtained based on Gibbs sampler and the predictive performance was evaluated using ten-fold cross-validation via c-index, integrated calibration index (ICI), and integrated brier score (IBS). RESULTS: 365 people with MCI were included, mean age was 73 years (SD = 7.5), and 39% developed dementia within 3 years. When expert knowledge was incorporated, the c-index, ICI, and IBS values were 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79), 0.06 (95% CI 0.05-0.08), and 0.17 (95% CI 0.14-0.19), respectively. These were similar to the model without expert knowledge data. CONCLUSION: The addition of expert knowledge did not improve model accuracy in this ADNI sample to predict dementia progression in individuals with MCI.

Wastewater-based surveillance can be used to model COVID-19-associated workforce absenteeism.

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) of infectious diseases is a powerful tool for understanding community COVID-19 disease burden and informing public health policy. The potential of WBS for understanding COVID-19's impact in non-healthcare settings has not been explored to the same degree. Here we examined how SARS-CoV-2 measured from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) correlates with workforce absenteeism. SARS-CoV-2 RNA N1 and N2 were quantified three times per week by RT-qPCR in samples collected at three WWTPs servicing Calgary and surrounding areas, Canada (1.4 million residents) between June 2020 and March 2022. Wastewater trends were compared to workforce absenteeism using data from the largest employer in the city (>15,000 staff). Absences were classified as being COVID-19-related, COVID-19-confirmed, and unrelated to COVID-19. Poisson regression was performed to generate a prediction model for COVID-19 absenteeism based on wastewater data. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 95.5 % (85/89) of weeks assessed. During this period 6592 COVID-19-related absences (1896 confirmed) and 4524 unrelated absences COVID-19 cases were recorded. A generalized linear regression using a Poisson distribution was performed to predict COVID-19-confirmed absences out of the total number of absent employees using wastewater data as a leading indicator (P < 0.0001). The Poisson regression with wastewater as a one-week leading signal has an Akaike information criterion (AIC) of 858, compared to a null model (excluding wastewater predictor) with an AIC of 1895. The likelihood-ratio test comparing the model with wastewater signal with the null model shows statistical significance (P < 0.0001). We also assessed the variation of predictions when the regression model was applied to new data, with the predicted values and corresponding confidence intervals closely tracking actual absenteeism data. Wastewater-based surveillance has the potential to be used by employers to anticipate workforce requirements and optimize human resource allocation in response to trackable respiratory illnesses like COVID-19.

Campus node-based wastewater surveillance enables COVID-19 case localization and confirms lower SARS-CoV-2 burden relative to the surrounding community.

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has been established as a powerful tool that can guide health policy at multiple levels of government. However, this approach has not been well assessed at more granular scales, including large work sites such as University campuses. Between August 2021 and April 2022, we explored the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater using qPCR assays from multiple complimentary sewer catchments and residential buildings spanning the University of Calgary's campus and how this compared to levels from the municipal wastewater treatment plant servicing the campus. Real-time contact tracing data was used to evaluate an association between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 burden and clinically confirmed cases and to assess the potential of WBS as a tool for disease monitoring across worksites. Concentrations of wastewater SARS-CoV-2 N1 and N2 RNA varied significantly across six sampling sites - regardless of several normalization strategies - with certain catchments consistently demonstrating values 1-2 orders higher than the others. Relative to clinical cases identified in specific sewersheds, WBS provided one-week leading indicator. Additionally, our comprehensive monitoring strategy enabled an estimation of the total burden of SARS-CoV-2 for the campus per capita, which was significantly lower than the surrounding community (p≤0.001). Allele-specific qPCR assays confirmed that variants across campus were representative of the community at large, and at no time did emerging variants first debut on campus. This study demonstrates how WBS can be efficiently applied to locate hotspots of disease activity at a very granular scale, and predict disease burden across large, complex worksites.

Multi-omic analysis reveals enriched pathways associated with COVID-19 and COVID-19 severity.

COVID-19 is a disease characterized by its seemingly unpredictable clinical outcomes. In order to better understand the molecular signature of the disease, a recent multi-omics study was done which looked at correlations between biomolecules and used a tree- based machine learning approach to predict clinical outcomes. This study specifically looked at patients admitted to the hospital experiencing COVID-19 or COVID-19 like symptoms. In this paper we examine the same multi-omics data, however we take a different approach, and we identify stable molecules of interest for further pathway analysis. We used stability selection, regularized regression models, enrichment analysis, and principal components analysis on proteomics, metabolomics, lipidomics, and RNA sequencing data, and we determined key molecules and biological pathways in disease severity, and disease status. In addition to the individual omics analyses, we perform the integrative method Sparse Multiple Canonical Correlation Analysis to analyse relationships of the different view of data. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 status is associated with the cell cycle and death, as well as the inflammatory response. This relationship is reflected in all four sets of molecules analyzed. We further observe that the metabolic processes, particularly processes to do with vitamin absorption and cholesterol are implicated in COVID-19 status and severity.

Statistical framework to support the epidemiological interpretation of SARS-CoV-2 concentration in municipal wastewater.

The ribonucleic acid (RNA) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) is detectable in municipal wastewater as infected individuals can shed the virus in their feces. Viral concentration in wastewater can inform the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic but observations can be noisy and sparse and hence hamper the epidemiological interpretation. Motivated by a Canadian nationwide wastewater surveillance data set, unlike previous studies, we propose a novel Bayesian statistical framework based on the theories of functional data analysis to tackle the challenges embedded in the longitudinal wastewater monitoring data. By employing this framework to analyze the large-scale data set from the nationwide wastewater surveillance program covering 15 sampling sites across Canada, we successfully detect the true trends of viral concentration out of noisy and sparsely observed viral concentrations, and accurately forecast the future trajectory of viral concentrations in wastewater. Along with the excellent performance assessment using simulated data, this study shows that the proposed novel framework is a useful statistical tool and has a significant potential in supporting the epidemiological interpretation of noisy viral concentration measurements from wastewater samples in a real-life setting.

A pragmatic dementia risk score for patients with mild cognitive impairment in a memory clinic population: Development and validation of a dementia risk score using routinely collected data.

Introduction: This study aimed to develop and validate a 3-year dementia risk score in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) based on variables collected in routine clinical care. Methods: The prediction score was trained and developed using data from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC). Selection criteria included aged 55 years and older with MCI. Cox models were validated externally using two independent cohorts from the Prospective Registry of Persons with Memory Symptoms (PROMPT) registry and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. Results: Our Mild Cognitive Impairment to Dementia Risk (CIDER) score predicted dementia risk with c-indices of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66-0.72), 0.61 (95% CI 0.59-0.63), and 0.72 (95% CI 0.69-0.75), for the internally validated and the external validation PROMPT, and ADNI cohorts, respectively. Discussion: The CIDER score could be used to inform clinicians and patients about the relative probabilities of developing dementia in patients with MCI.