Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

Eos Promotes TH2 Differentiation by Interacting with and Propagating the Activity of STAT5.

The Ikaros zinc-finger transcription factor Eos has largely been associated with sustaining the immunosuppressive functions of regulatory T cells. Paradoxically, Eos has more recently been implicated in promoting proinflammatory responses in the dysregulated setting of autoimmunity. However, the precise role of Eos in regulating the differentiation and function of effector CD4+ T cell subsets remains unclear. In this study, we find that Eos is a positive regulator of the differentiation of murine CD4+ TH2 cells, an effector population that has been implicated in both immunity against helminthic parasites and the induction of allergic asthma. Using murine in vitro TH2 polarization and an in vivo house dust mite asthma model, we find that EosKO T cells exhibit reduced expression of key TH2 transcription factors, effector cytokines, and cytokine receptors. Mechanistically, we find that the IL-2/STAT5 axis and its downstream TH2 gene targets are one of the most significantly downregulated pathways in Eos-deficient cells. Consistent with these observations, we find that Eos forms, to our knowledge, a novel complex with and supports the tyrosine phosphorylation of STAT5. Collectively, these data define a regulatory mechanism whereby Eos propagates STAT5 activity to facilitate TH2 cell differentiation.

Exposing Anopheles mosquitoes to antimalarials blocks Plasmodium parasite transmission.

Bites of Anopheles mosquitoes transmit Plasmodium falciparum parasites that cause malaria, which kills hundreds of thousands of people every year. Since the turn of this century, efforts to prevent the transmission of these parasites via the mass distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets have been extremely successful, and have led to an unprecedented reduction in deaths from malaria1. However, resistance to insecticides has become widespread in Anopheles populations2-4, which has led to the threat of a global resurgence of malaria and makes the generation of effective tools for controlling this disease an urgent public health priority. Here we show that the development of P. falciparum can be rapidly and completely blocked when female Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes take up low concentrations of specific antimalarials from treated surfaces-conditions that simulate contact with a bed net. Mosquito exposure to atovaquone before, or shortly after, P. falciparum infection causes full parasite arrest in the midgut, and prevents transmission of infection. Similar transmission-blocking effects are achieved using other cytochrome b inhibitors, which demonstrates that parasite mitochondrial function is a suitable target for killing parasites. Incorporating these effects into a model of malaria transmission dynamics predicts that impregnating mosquito nets with Plasmodium inhibitors would substantially mitigate the global health effects of insecticide resistance. This study identifies a powerful strategy for blocking Plasmodium transmission by female Anopheles mosquitoes, which has promising implications for efforts to eradicate malaria.

Declines in prevalence alter the optimal level of sexual investment for the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum.

Successful infectious disease interventions can result in large reductions in parasite prevalence. Such demographic change has fitness implications for individual parasites and may shift the parasite's optimal life history strategy. Here, we explore whether declining infection rates can alter Plasmodium falciparum's investment in sexual versus asexual growth. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we demonstrate how the proportion of polyclonal infections, which decreases as parasite prevalence declines, affects the optimal sexual development strategy: Within-host competition in multiclone infections favors a greater investment in asexual growth whereas single-clone infections benefit from higher conversion to sexual forms. At the same time, drug treatment also imposes selection pressure on sexual development by shortening infection length and reducing within-host competition. We assess these models using 148 P. falciparum parasite genomes sampled in French Guiana over an 18-y period of intensive intervention (1998 to 2015). During this time frame, multiple public health measures, including the introduction of new drugs and expanded rapid diagnostic testing, were implemented, reducing P. falciparum malaria cases by an order of magnitude. Consistent with this prevalence decline, we see an increase in the relatedness among parasites, but no single clonal background grew to dominate the population. Analyzing individual allele frequency trajectories, we identify genes that likely experienced selective sweeps. Supporting our model predictions, genes showing the strongest signatures of selection include transcription factors involved in the development of P. falciparum's sexual gametocyte form. These results highlight how public health interventions impose wide-ranging selection pressures that affect basic parasite life history traits.

Infection-induced increases to population size during cycles in a discrete-time epidemic model.

One-dimensional discrete-time population models, such as those that involve Logistic or Ricker growth, can exhibit periodic and chaotic dynamics. Expanding the system by one dimension to incorporate epidemiological interactions causes an interesting complexity of new behaviors. Here, we examine a discrete-time two-dimensional susceptible-infectious (SI) model with Ricker growth and show that the introduction of infection can not only produce a distinctly different bifurcation structure than that of the underlying disease-free system but also lead to counter-intuitive increases in population size. We use numerical bifurcation analysis to determine the influence of infection on the location and types of bifurcations. In addition, we examine the appearance and extent of a phenomenon known as the 'hydra effect,' i.e., increases in total population size when factors, such as mortality, that act negatively on a population, are increased. Previous work, primarily focused on dynamics at fixed points, showed that the introduction of infection that reduces fecundity to the SI model can lead to a so-called 'infection-induced hydra effect.' Our work shows that even in such a simple two-dimensional SI model, the introduction of infection that alters fecundity or mortality can produce dynamics can lead to the appearance of a hydra effect, particularly when the disease-free population is at a cycle.

Multiple blood feeding in mosquitoes shortens the Plasmodium falciparum incubation period and increases malaria transmission potential.

Many mosquito species, including the major malaria vector Anopheles gambiae, naturally undergo multiple reproductive cycles of blood feeding, egg development and egg laying in their lifespan. Such complex mosquito behavior is regularly overlooked when mosquitoes are experimentally infected with malaria parasites, limiting our ability to accurately describe potential effects on transmission. Here, we examine how Plasmodium falciparum development and transmission potential is impacted when infected mosquitoes feed an additional time. We measured P. falciparum oocyst size and performed sporozoite time course analyses to determine the parasite's extrinsic incubation period (EIP), i.e. the time required by parasites to reach infectious sporozoite stages, in An. gambiae females blood fed either once or twice. An additional blood feed at 3 days post infection drastically accelerates oocyst growth rates, causing earlier sporozoite accumulation in the salivary glands, thereby shortening the EIP (reduction of 2.3 ± 0.4 days). Moreover, parasite growth is further accelerated in transgenic mosquitoes with reduced reproductive capacity, which mimic genetic modifications currently proposed in population suppression gene drives. We incorporate our shortened EIP values into a measure of transmission potential, the basic reproduction number R0, and find the average R0 is higher (range: 10.1%-12.1% increase) across sub-Saharan Africa than when using traditional EIP measurements. These data suggest that malaria elimination may be substantially more challenging and that younger mosquitoes or those with reduced reproductive ability may provide a larger contribution to infection than currently believed. Our findings have profound implications for current and future mosquito control interventions.

Modeling the effects of Aedes aegypti's larval environment on adult body mass at emergence.

Mosquitoes vector harmful pathogens that infect millions of people every year, and developing approaches to effectively control mosquitoes is a topic of great interest. However, the success of many control measures is highly dependent upon ecological, physiological, and life history traits of mosquito species. The behavior of mosquitoes and their potential to vector pathogens can also be impacted by these traits. One trait of interest is mosquito body mass, which depends upon many factors associated with the environment in which juvenile mosquitoes develop. Our experiments examined the impact of larval density on the body mass of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are important vectors of dengue, Zika, yellow fever, and other pathogens. To investigate the interactions between the larval environment and mosquito body mass, we built a discrete time mathematical model that incorporates body mass, larval density, and food availability and fit the model to our experimental data. We considered three categories of model complexity informed by data, and selected the best model within each category using Akaike's Information Criterion. We found that the larval environment is an important determinant of the body mass of mosquitoes upon emergence. Furthermore, we found that larval density has greater impact on body mass of adults at emergence than on development time, and that inclusion of density dependence in the survival of female aquatic stages in models is important. We discuss the implications of our results for the control of Aedes mosquitoes and on their potential to spread disease.

Resistance to Plasmodium falciparum in sickle cell trait erythrocytes is driven by oxygen-dependent growth inhibition.

Sickle cell trait (AS) confers partial protection against lethal Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Multiple mechanisms for this have been proposed, with a recent focus on aberrant cytoadherence of parasite-infected red blood cells (RBCs). Here we investigate the mechanistic basis of AS protection through detailed temporal mapping. We find that parasites in AS RBCs maintained at low oxygen concentrations stall at a specific stage in the middle of intracellular growth before DNA replication. We demonstrate that polymerization of sickle hemoglobin (HbS) is responsible for this growth arrest of intraerythrocytic P. falciparum parasites, with normal hemoglobin digestion and growth restored in the presence of carbon monoxide, a gaseous antisickling agent. Modeling of growth inhibition and sequestration revealed that HbS polymerization-induced growth inhibition following cytoadherence is the critical driver of the reduced parasite densities observed in malaria infections of individuals with AS. We conclude that the protective effect of AS derives largely from effective sequestration of infected RBCs into the hypoxic microcirculation.

Modeling the waning and boosting of immunity from infection or vaccination.

Immunity following natural infection or immunization may wane, increasing susceptibility to infection with time since infection or vaccination. Symptoms, and concomitantly infectiousness, depend on residual immunity. We quantify these phenomena in a model population composed of individuals whose susceptibility, infectiousness, and symptoms all vary with immune status. We also model age, which affects contact, vaccination and possibly waning rates. The resurgences of pertussis that have been observed wherever effective vaccination programs have reduced typical disease among young children follow from these processes. As one example, we compare simulations with the experience of Sweden following resumption of pertussis vaccination after the hiatus from 1979 to 1996, reproducing the observations leading health authorities to introduce booster doses among school-aged children and adolescents in 2007 and 2014, respectively. Because pertussis comprises a spectrum of symptoms, only the most severe of which are medically attended, accurate models are needed to design optimal vaccination programs where surveillance is less effective.

Comparing nonpharmaceutical interventions for containing emerging epidemics.

Strategies for containing an emerging infectious disease outbreak must be nonpharmaceutical when drugs or vaccines for the pathogen do not yet exist or are unavailable. The success of these nonpharmaceutical strategies will depend on not only the effectiveness of isolation measures but also the epidemiological characteristics of the infection. However, there is currently no systematic framework to assess the relationship between different containment strategies and the natural history and epidemiological dynamics of the pathogen. Here, we compare the effectiveness of quarantine and symptom monitoring, implemented via contact tracing, in controlling epidemics using an agent-based branching model. We examine the relationship between epidemic containment and the disease dynamics of symptoms and infectiousness for seven case-study diseases with diverse natural histories, including Ebola, influenza A, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We show that the comparative effectiveness of symptom monitoring and quarantine depends critically on the natural history of the infectious disease, its inherent transmissibility, and the intervention feasibility in the particular healthcare setting. The benefit of quarantine over symptom monitoring is generally maximized for fast-course diseases, but we show the conditions under which symptom monitoring alone can control certain outbreaks. This quantitative framework can guide policymakers on how best to use nonpharmaceutical interventions and prioritize research during an outbreak of an emerging pathogen.

Disrupting Mosquito Reproduction and Parasite Development for Malaria Control.

The control of mosquito populations with insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual sprays remains the cornerstone of malaria reduction and elimination programs. In light of widespread insecticide resistance in mosquitoes, however, alternative strategies for reducing transmission by the mosquito vector are urgently needed, including the identification of safe compounds that affect vectorial capacity via mechanisms that differ from fast-acting insecticides. Here, we show that compounds targeting steroid hormone signaling disrupt multiple biological processes that are key to the ability of mosquitoes to transmit malaria. When an agonist of the steroid hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone (20E) is applied to Anopheles gambiae females, which are the dominant malaria mosquito vector in Sub Saharan Africa, it substantially shortens lifespan, prevents insemination and egg production, and significantly blocks Plasmodium falciparum development, three components that are crucial to malaria transmission. Modeling the impact of these effects on Anopheles population dynamics and Plasmodium transmission predicts that disrupting steroid hormone signaling using 20E agonists would affect malaria transmission to a similar extent as insecticides. Manipulating 20E pathways therefore provides a powerful new approach to tackle malaria transmission by the mosquito vector, particularly in areas affected by the spread of insecticide resistance.

Unraveling within-host signatures of dengue infection at the population level.

Dengue virus causes worldwide concern with nearly 100 million infected cases reported annually. The within-host dynamics differ between primary and secondary infections, where secondary infections with a different virus serotype typically last longer, produce higher viral loads, and induce more severe disease. We build upon the variable within-host virus dynamics during infections resulting in mild dengue fever and severe dengue hemorrhagic fever. We couple these within-host virus dynamics to a population-level model through a system of partial differential equations creating an immuno-epidemiological model. The resulting multiscale model examines the dynamics of between-host infections in the presence of two circulating virus strains that involves feedback from the within-host and between-hosts interactions, encompassing multiple scales. We analytically determine the relationship between the model parameters and the characteristics of the model's solutions, and find an analytical threshold under which infections persist in the population. Furthermore, we develop and implement a full numerical scheme for our immuno-epidemiological model, allowing the simulation of population dynamics under variable parameter conditions.

Targeting Human Transmission Biology for Malaria Elimination.

Malaria remains one of the leading causes of death worldwide, despite decades of public health efforts. The recent commitment by many endemic countries to eliminate malaria marks a shift away from programs aimed at controlling disease burden towards one that emphasizes reducing transmission of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. Gametocytes, the only developmental stage of malaria parasites able to infect mosquitoes, have remained understudied, as they occur in low numbers, do not cause disease, and are difficult to detect in vivo by conventional methods. Here, we review the transmission biology of P. falciparum gametocytes, featuring important recent discoveries of genes affecting parasite commitment to gametocyte formation, microvesicles enabling parasites to communicate with each other, and the anatomical site where immature gametocytes develop. We propose potential parasite targets for future intervention and highlight remaining knowledge gaps.

Prior exposure to pathogens augments host heterogeneity in susceptibility and has key epidemiological consequences.

Pathogen epidemics are key threats to human and wildlife health. Across systems, host protection from pathogens following initial exposure is often incomplete, resulting in recurrent epidemics through partially-immune hosts. Variation in population-level protection has important consequences for epidemic dynamics, but whether acquired protection influences host heterogeneity in susceptibility and its epidemiological consequences remains unexplored. We experimentally investigated whether prior exposure (none, low-dose, or high-dose) to a bacterial pathogen alters host heterogeneity in susceptibility among songbirds. Hosts with no prior pathogen exposure had little variation in protection, but heterogeneity in susceptibility was significantly augmented by prior pathogen exposure, with the highest variability detected in hosts given high-dose prior exposure. An epidemiological model parameterized with experimental data found that heterogeneity in susceptibility from prior exposure more than halved epidemic sizes compared with a homogeneous population with identical mean protection. However, because infection-induced mortality was also greatly reduced in hosts with prior pathogen exposure, reductions in epidemic size were smaller than expected in hosts with prior exposure. These results highlight the importance of variable protection from prior exposure and/or vaccination in driving host heterogeneity and epidemiological dynamics. Author Summary: Individuals in a population can be highly variable in terms of whether or not they get sick during a pathogen outbreak. This individual variability in susceptibility has important consequences for how widely a disease can spread in a population. Therefore, it is key to understand what drives such variability in susceptibility among individuals. One possibility is that variable levels of standing immunity in a population, whether from vaccination or previous infection, lead to variability in susceptibility among individuals. We tested whether acquired immunity creates more variability in susceptibility among individuals in a host population, using a songbird disease system as a model. We found that birds that had acquired immunity to a bacterial pathogen were far more variable in their susceptibility. We also show that this population-level variability in itself can strongly suppress disease outbreaks.

Extraordinary parasite multiplication rates in human malaria infections.

For pathogenic organisms, faster rates of multiplication promote transmission success, the potential to harm hosts, and the evolution of drug resistance. Parasite multiplication rates (PMRs) are often quantified in malaria infections, given the relative ease of sampling. Using modern and historical human infection data, we show that established methods return extraordinarily - and implausibly - large PMRs. We illustrate how inflated PMRs arise from two facets of malaria biology that are far from unique: (i) some developmental ages are easier to sample than others; (ii) the distribution of developmental ages changes over the course of infection. The difficulty of accurately quantifying PMRs demonstrates a need for robust methods and a subsequent re-evaluation of what is known even in the well-studied system of malaria.

Why Similar Policies Resulted In Different COVID-19 Outcomes: How Responsiveness And Culture Influenced Mortality Rates.

In the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, per capita mortality varied by more than a hundredfold across countries, despite most implementing similar nonpharmaceutical interventions. Factors such as policy stringency, gross domestic product, and age distribution explain only a small fraction of mortality variation. To address this puzzle, we built on a previously validated pandemic model in which perceived risk altered societal responses affecting SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Using data from more than 100 countries, we found that a key factor explaining heterogeneous death rates was not the policy responses themselves but rather variation in responsiveness. Responsiveness measures how sensitive communities are to evolving mortality risks and how readily they adopt nonpharmaceutical interventions in response, to curb transmission. We further found that responsiveness correlated with two cultural constructs across countries: uncertainty avoidance and power distance. Our findings show that more responsive adoption of similar policies saves many lives, with important implications for the design and implementation of responses to future outbreaks.

From inflammation to wound healing: using a simple model to understand the functional versatility of murine macrophages.

Macrophages are fundamental cells of the innate immune system. Their activation is essential for such distinct immune functions as inflammation (pathogen-killing) and tissue repair (wound healing). An open question has been the functional stability of an individual macrophage cell: whether it can change its functional profile between different immune responses such as between the repair pathway and the inflammatory pathway. We studied this question theoretically by constructing a rate equation model for the key substrate, enzymes and products of the pathways; we then tested the model experimentally. Both our model and experiments show that individual macrophages can switch from the repair pathway to the inflammation pathway but that the reverse switch does not occur.

Parasitism of Aedes albopictus by Ascogregarina taiwanensis lowers its competitive ability against Aedes triseriatus.

BACKGROUND: Mosquitoes are vectors for diseases such as dengue, malaria and La Crosse virus that significantly impact the human population. When multiple mosquito species are present, the competition between species may alter population dynamics as well as disease spread. Two mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Aedes triseriatus, both inhabit areas where La Crosse virus is found. Infection of Aedes albopictus by the parasite Ascogregarina taiwanensis and Aedes triseriatus by the parasite Ascogregarina barretti can decrease a mosquito's fitness, respectively. In particular, the decrease in fitness of Aedes albopictus occurs through the impact of Ascogregarina taiwanensis on female fecundity, larval development rate, and larval mortality and may impact its initial competitive advantage over Aedes triseriatus during invasion. METHODS: We examine the effects of parasitism of gregarine parasites on Aedes albopictus and triseriatus population dynamics and competition with a focus on when Aedes albopictus is new to an area. We build a compartmental model including competition between Aedes albopictus and triseriatus while under parasitism of the gregarine parasites. Using parameters based on the literature, we simulate the dynamics and analyze the equilibrium population proportion of the two species. We consider the presence of both parasites and potential dilution effects. RESULTS: We show that increased levels of parasitism in Aedes albopictus will decrease the initial competitive advantage of the species over Aedes triseriatus and increase the survivorship of Aedes triseriatus. We find Aedes albopictus is better able to invade when there is more extreme parasitism of Aedes triseriatus. Furthermore, although the transient dynamics differ, dilution of the parasite density through uptake by both species does not alter the equilibrium population sizes of either species. CONCLUSIONS: Mosquito population dynamics are affected by many factors, such as abiotic factors (e.g. temperature and humidity) and competition between mosquito species. This is especially true when multiple mosquito species are vying to live in the same area. Knowledge of how population dynamics are affected by gregarine parasites among competing species can inform future mosquito control efforts and help prevent the spread of vector-borne disease.

Interactions Between Opioids and Dextroamphetamine on Locomotor Activity: Influence of an Opioid's Relative Efficacy at the Mu Receptor.

Opioids and stimulants are often used in combination for both recreational and non-recreational purposes. High-efficacy mu opioid agonists generally increase the behavioral effects of stimulants, whereas opioid receptor antagonists generally attenuate the behavioral effects of stimulants; however, less is known regarding the interactions between stimulants and opioids possessing low to intermediate efficacy at the mu receptor. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of an opioid's relative efficacy at the mu receptor in altering the behavioral effects of dextro(d-)amphetamine. To this end, opioids possessing a range of relative efficacy at the mu receptor were examined alone and in combination with cumulative doses of d-amphetamine on a test of open-field, locomotor activity in male rats. Levorphanol, buprenorphine, butorphanol, nalbuphine, (-)-pentazocine, (-)-metazocine, (-)-cyclazocine, (-)-NANM, and nalorphine increased the locomotor effects of d-amphetamine in either an additive or greater-than-additive manner according to an effect-additive model. Only the selective, high-efficacy kappa agonist, spiradoline, and the non-selective opioid receptor antagonist, naloxone, failed to increase the effects of d-amphetamine under the conditions examined. These data indicate that opioids possessing a large range of relative efficacy at the mu receptor, including those possessing very low relative efficacy, significantly increase the locomotor effects of d-amphetamine.

The impact of within-vector parasite development on the extrinsic incubation period.

Mosquito-borne diseases, in particular malaria, have a significant burden worldwide leading to nearly half a million deaths each year. The malaria parasite requires a vertebrate host, such as a human, and a vector host, the Anopheles mosquito, to complete its full life cycle. Here, we focus on the parasite dynamics within the vector to examine the first appearance of sporozoites in the salivary glands, which indicates a first time of infectiousness of mosquitoes. The timing of this period of pathogen development in the mosquito until transmissibility, known as the extrinsic incubation period, remains poorly understood. We develop compartmental models of within-mosquito parasite dynamics fitted with experimental data on oocyst and sporozoite counts. We find that only a fraction of oocysts burst to release sporozoites and bursting must be delayed either via a time-dependent function or a gamma-distributed set of compartments. We use Bayesian inference to estimate distributions of parameters and determine that bursting rate is a key epidemiological parameter. A better understanding of the factors impacting the extrinsic incubation period will aid in the development of interventions to slow or stop the spread of malaria.