To replicate, or not to replicate - that is the question: how to tackle nonlinear responses in ecological experiments.

A fundamental challenge in experimental ecology is to capture nonlinearities of ecological responses to interacting environmental drivers. Here, we demonstrate that gradient designs outperform replicated designs for detecting and quantifying nonlinear responses. We report the results of (1) multiple computer simulations and (2) two purpose-designed empirical experiments. The findings consistently revealed that unreplicated sampling at a maximum number of sampling locations maximised prediction success (i.e. the R² to the known truth) irrespective of the amount of stochasticity and the underlying response surfaces, including combinations of two linear, unimodal or saturating drivers. For the two empirical experiments, the same pattern was found, with gradient designs outperforming replicated designs in revealing the response surfaces of underlying drivers. Our findings suggest that a move to gradient designs in ecological experiments could be a major step towards unravelling underlying response patterns to continuous and interacting environmental drivers in a feasible and statistically powerful way.

Active afforestation of drained peatlands is not a viable option under the EU Nature Restoration Law.

The EU Nature Restoration Law (NRL) is critical for the restoration of degraded ecosystems and active afforestation of degraded peatlands has been suggested as a restoration measure under the NRL. Here, we discuss the current state of scientific evidence on the climate mitigation effects of peatlands under forestry. Afforestation of drained peatlands without restoring their hydrology does not fully restore ecosystem functions. Evidence on long-term climate benefits is lacking and it is unclear whether CO2 sequestration of forest on drained peatland can offset the carbon loss from the peat over the long-term. While afforestation may offer short-term gains in certain cases, it compromises the sustainability of peatland carbon storage. Thus, active afforestation of drained peatlands is not a viable option for climate mitigation under the EU Nature Restoration Law and might even impede future rewetting/restoration efforts. Instead, restoring hydrological conditions through rewetting is crucial for effective peatland restoration.

First observation of direct methane emission to the atmosphere from the subglacial domain of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

During a 2016 field expedition to the West Greenland Ice Sheet, a striking observation of significantly elevated CH4 concentrations of up to 15 times the background atmospheric concentration were measured directly in the air expelled with meltwater at a subglacial discharge point from the Greenland Ice Sheet. The range of hourly subglacial CH4 flux rate through the discharge point was estimated to be 3.1 to 134 g CH4 hr-1. These measurements are the first observations of direct emissions of CH4 from the subglacial environment under the Greenlandic Ice Sheet to the atmosphere and indicate a novel emission pathway of CH4 that is currently a non-quantified component of the Arctic CH4 budget.