Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate.

The intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is expected to increase in response to greenhouse warming. However, how future climate change will affect TC frequencies and tracks is still under debate. Here, to further elucidate the underlying sensitivities and mechanisms, we study TCs response to different past and future climate forcings. Using a high-resolution TC-resolving global Earth system model with 1/4° atmosphere and 1/10° ocean resolution, we conducted a series of paleo-time-slice and future greenhouse warming simulations targeting the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, 125 ka), glacial sub-stage MIS5d (115 ka), present-day (PD), and CO2 doubling (2×CO2) conditions. Our analysis reveals that precessional forcing created an interhemispheric difference in simulated TC densities, whereas future CO2 forcing impacts both hemispheres in the same direction. In both cases, we find that TC genesis frequency, density, and intensity are primarily controlled by changes in tropospheric thermal and moisture structure, exhibiting a clear reduction in TC genesis density in warmer hemispheres.

East Asian climate response to COVID-19 lockdown measures in China.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions of public life and imposed lockdown measures in 2020 resulted in considerable reductions of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It still remains unclear how the associated short-term changes in atmospheric chemistry influenced weather and climate on regional scales. To understand the underlying physical mechanisms, we conduct ensemble aerosol perturbation experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 2. In the simulations reduced anthropogenic aerosol emissions in February generate anomalous surface warming and warm-moist air advection which promotes low-level cloud formation over China. Although the simulated response is weak, it is detectable in some areas, in qualitative agreement with the observations. The negative dynamical cloud feedback offsets the effect from reduced cloud condensation nuclei. Additional perturbation experiments with strongly amplified air pollution over China reveal a nonlinear sensitivity of regional atmospheric conditions to chemical/radiative perturbations. COVID-19-related changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions provide an excellent testbed to elucidate the interaction between air pollution and climate.

Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme storms that form over warm tropical oceans. Along their tracks, TCs mix up cold water, which can further affect their intensity. Because of the adoption of lower-resolution ocean models, previous modeling studies on the TC response to greenhouse warming underestimated such oceanic feedbacks. To address the robustness of TC projections in the presence of mesoscale air-sea interactions and complex coastal topography, we conduct greenhouse warming experiments using an ultrahigh-resolution Earth System Model. We find that a projected weakening of the rising branches of the summer Hadley cells suppresses future TC genesis and TC-generated ocean cooling. The forced response is similar to recent observational trends, indicating a possible emergence of the anthropogenic signal beyond natural variability levels. In the greenhouse warming simulations, landfalling TCs intensify, both in terms of wind speed and associated rainfall. Our modeling results provide relevant information for climate change adaptation efforts.

How light absorbing properties of organic aerosol modify the Asian summer monsoon rainfall?

Light absorbing aerosols not only contribute to Earth's radiative balance but also influence regional climate by cooling the surface and warming the atmosphere. Following recent suggestions that organic aerosols (OAs) absorb substantial amount of solar radiation, we examine the role of light absorbing properties of OA on Asian summer monsoon rainfall redistribution using observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiment. Results suggest that the enhanced light absorption by OA in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia are associated with the advance of the Indian summer monsoon in May and the southward shift of East Asian summer monsoon rain band in June. The rainfall redistribution in May is induced by elevated orographic effect with a warm-core upper-level anticyclone and surface warming of 1-2°C over the Tibetan Plateau whereas that of the East Asian summer monsoon in June is formed by stable conditions associated with surface cooling and atmospheric warming around 30°N.