Time Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Across the BRICS: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Key Nations With Emerging Economies Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) are emerging economies making up almost half the global population. We analyzed trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality across the BRICS and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS: Mortality estimates were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. We used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate cohort and period effects in CVD between 1992 and 2016. Period was defined as survey year, and period effects reflect population-wide exposure at a circumscribed point in time. Cohort effects are defined as differences in risks across birth cohort. Net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks were calculated. RESULTS: In 2016, there were 8.4 million CVD deaths across the BRICS. Between 1992 and 2016, the reduction in CVD age-standardized mortality rate in BRICS (-17%) was less than in North America (-39%). Eighty-eight percent of the increased number of all-cause deaths resulted from the increase in CVD deaths. The age-standardized mortality rate from stroke and hypertensive heart disease declined by approximately one-third across the BRICS, whereas ischemic heart disease increased slightly (2%). Brazil had the largest age-standardized mortality rate reductions across all CVD categories, with improvement both over time and in recent birth cohorts. South Africa was the only country where the CVD age-standardized mortality rate increased. Different age-related CVD mortality was seen in those ≥50 years of age in China, ≤40 years of age in Russia, 35 to 60 years of age in India, and ≥55 years of age in South Africa. Improving period and cohort risks for CVD mortality were generally found across countries, except for worsening period effects in India and greater risks for ischemic heart disease in Chinese cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960s. CONCLUSIONS: Except for Brazil, reductions of CVD mortality across the BRICS have been less than that in North America, such that China, India, and South Africa contribute an increasing proportion of global CVD deaths. Brazil's example suggests that prevention policies can both reduce the risks for younger birth cohorts and shift the risks for all age groups over time.

Community variation in adolescent alcohol use in Australia and the Netherlands.

To investigate the cross-national relevance of community health promotion, this paper compared community variation in alcohol use and risk and protective factors for adolescents in Australia (State of Victoria, 2009) and the Netherlands (2007/2008). Multi-level analyses examined community variation in heavy episodic (binge) alcohol use [≥5 drinks in a session ≥once in the prior fortnight (>63 ml of ethanol)] and associations with predictors. Representative community samples of adolescents (12-17 years) were recruited. The participants were 7812 students from 36 Australian communities and 15 082 adolescents from 124 Dutch communities. Predictors included adolescent reports of family, school, peer and neighbourhood environments and community predictors (rural, disadvantage). The overall prevalence of alcohol use prevalence was similar in both nations. Australia had higher use at younger ages and no difference between genders. In the Netherlands older adolescents and males used alcohol at significantly higher rates. Although individual predictors were mostly similar, binge drinking was more strongly associated with poor family management, friends' use of drugs and community disorganization in Australia. Significant community variation in adolescent heavy alcohol use was observed in both countries, but was higher in the Netherlands [inter class correlation 6.1%, (95% CI: 4.5-8.3%)] than Australia (ICC 2.4%, 1.3-4.5%). Youth from rural areas drank at a higher level, especially in the Netherlands. Targeting community level adolescent alcohol use appears feasible in both countries. Although behavioural patterns and risk and protective influences are similar in the Netherlands and Australia, important differences should be taken into account in tailoring community interventions.

Interpersonal Violence and Gender Inequality in Adolescents: A Systematic Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Data From 1990 to 2019.

PURPOSE: Interpersonal violence is a leading cause of adolescent deaths and disability. This study investigates sex differences in burden of interpersonal violence for adolescents and explores associations with gender inequality. METHOD: Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we report numbers, proportions, rates of interpersonal violence deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for all ages, and rate of change (from 1990 to 2019) in adolescents aged 10-24 years disaggregated by sex and geography. We explored associations with gender inequality using gender inequality index. RESULTS: One in four (24.8%) all-age interpersonal violence deaths are in adolescents. In 2019, the rate of deaths in adolescent males was almost six times higher than females (9.3 vs. 1.6 per 100,000); and since 1990, the rate of decline in DALYs for females was double than that for males (-28.9% vs. -12.7%). By contrast, the burden of sexual violence is disproportionately borne by adolescent females, with over double the rate than males (DALYs: 42.8 vs. 17.5 per 100,000). In countries with greater gender inequality, the male-to-female ratio (deaths and DALYs) was increased among older adolescents, pointing to benefits for males in more gender equal settings. DISCUSSION: Social identities, relationships, and attitudes to violence are established in adolescence, which is an inflection point marking the emergence of disproportionate burdens of interpersonal violence. Our findings affirm that global agendas must be expanded to address interrelated factors driving multiple forms of interpersonal violence experienced by adolescents and reverberating to the next generation.

Towards responsive policy and actions to address non-communicable disease risks amongst adolescents in Indonesia: insights from key stakeholders.

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease, mental disorder and chronic lung conditions are the leading cause of death and disability in Indonesia. Adolescence is when risks for NCDs emerge and it is also an important life stage for intervention, yet young people are often at the margins of NCD policy and actions. This study aimed to understand how policies and actions should address NCD risks (tobacco smoking, inadequate physical activity, and diet) for adolescents in Indonesia, and how young people can be meaningfully involved. Methods: Qualitative in-depth interviews over videoconference (n = 21) were conducted in English or Bahasa with stakeholders in Indonesia. Participants included policymakers, implementation partners, and advocates who were focused on adolescent health or NCDs. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, translated, and thematically analysed using NVivo12. Findings were disseminated to participants for validation and feedback. Youth participants (n = 7) attended an additional workshop and considered recommendations and actions arising from this research. Findings: Participants identified that government and non-government organisations are acting on NCDs in Indonesia, but few of the existing initiatives target adolescents, and adolescent services rarely addressed NCD risks. Participants also felt that policies to protect adolescents from NCD risks (i.e., smoke-free areas in public) were not always enforced. For programs or initiatives focused on adolescent health, those that had engaged adolescents as co-creators and leaders were perceived to be more successful. As such, participants recommended more meaningful engagement of young people, including young people's leadership of initiatives. Additional recommendations included the need for intersectoral engagement and a 'whole-of-government' approach to prevention given the complex determinants of NCD risks, and the need for evidence-based actions that are underpinned by quality data to enable monitoring of progress. Interpretation: There is a recognised need to strengthen policies and actions to address NCD risks amongst adolescents in Indonesia. Meaningful youth engagement that allows young people to take the lead, intersectoral actions, and evidence-based data driven responses were key strategies identified. Funding: UNICEF East Asia and Pacific Regional Office.

Foregone health care in adolescents from school and community settings in Indonesia: a cross-sectional study.

Background: Adolescence is a development period marked by the onset of a new set of health needs. The present study sought to quantify the prevalence of foregone care (not seeking medical care when needed) and identify which adolescents are at greater risk of having unmet healthcare needs. Methods: A multi-stage random sampling strategy was used to recruit school participants (grade 10-12) in two provinces in Indonesia. Respondent driven sampling was used to recruit out-of-school adolescents in the community. All participants completed a self-reported questionnaire which measured healthcare seeking behaviours, psychosocial wellbeing, use of healthcare services, and perceived barriers to accessing healthcare. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to examine factors associated with foregone care. Findings: A total of 2161 adolescents participated in the present study and nearly one in four adolescents reported foregone care in the past year. Experiences of poly-victimisation and seeking care for mental health needs increased the risk of foregone care. In-school adolescents who reported psychological distress [adjusted risk ratio (aRR) = 1.88, 95%CI = 1.48-2.38] or had high body mass index (aRR = 1.25, 95%CI = 1.00-1.57) were at greater risk of foregone care. The leading reason for foregone care was lack of knowledge of available services. In-school adolescents predominantly reported non-access barriers to care (e.g., perception of the health concern or anxiety about accessing care) whereas most out-of-school adolescents reported access barriers (e.g., did not know where to get care or could not pay). Interpretation: Foregone care is common among Indonesian adolescents, especially in adolescents with mental and physical health risks. Differences between in-school and out-of-school adolescents suggest that interventions to promote appropriate healthcare use will need tailoring. Further research is needed to determine causal relationships around barriers in access to healthcare. Funding: Australia-Indonesia Centre.

Mental health of adolescents in Myanmar: A systematic review of prevalence, determinants and interventions.

Adolescence is a developmental phase where mental disorders typically manifest and where platforms for response (including schools and health services) change rapidly. However, data to inform public mental health responses are limited, including in countries like Myanmar which has a large adolescent population and where mental health has been identified as a priority of policy. In this paper we sought to systematically review the peer-reviewed and grey literature to determine (i) the prevalence of mental disorder among adolescents in Myanmar, (ii) determinants of mental disorder and (iii) interventions that have been implemented and evaluated. Nine publications met inclusion criteria (7 peer-reviewed and 2 grey literature) that included 7 publications reporting prevalence, 6 reporting correlates and one an intervention. The available data from the 2016 Global School-based Health Survey highlight that depression (27.2%) and suicidal ideation (9.4%) are prevalent in Myanmar, and these rates are substantially higher than regional averages. The limited available data on correlates identified violence and bullying, alcohol and substance use, and home, family and community security and cohesion as being closely related to mental health for adolescents. Only one study focussed on interventions and this found mindfulness meditation training to be an effective approach for young people whose parents were affected by HIV. These findings underscore the need to address adolescent mental health in Myanmar, but also to invest in better data collection efforts.

Matching action to need: an analysis of Global Burden of Disease 2017 and population health data to focus adolescent health policy and actions in Myanmar.

Background: Myanmar is a country undergoing rapid transitions in health. Its national strategic policy for young people's health is being revised but there is a paucity of population data to inform local priorities and needs. Objective: In this paper we describe a comprehensive profile of adolescent health in Myanmar to focus policy and health actions. Methods: We used available primary data, and modelled estimates from the GBD 2017, to describe health outcomes (mortality and morbidity), health risks and determinants for adolescents in Myanmar between 1990-2017. A governance group of key stakeholders guided the framing of the study, interpretation of findings, and recommendations. Results: Overall health has improved for adolescents in Myanmar since 1990, however adolescent mortality remains high, particularly so for older adolescent males; all-cause mortality rate for 10-24 years was 70 per 100,000 for females and 149 per 100,000 for males (16,095 adolescent deaths in 2017). Overall, the dominant health problems were injuries for males and non-communicable disease for females in a context of ongoing burden of communicable and nutritional diseases for both sexes, and reproductive health needs for females. Health risks relating to undernutrition (thinness and anaemia) remain prevalent, with other health risks (overweight, binge alcohol use, and substance use) relatively low by global and regional standards but increasing. Gains have been made in social determinants such as adolescent fertility and modern contraception use; however, advances have been more limited in secondary education completion and engagement in employment and post education training. Conclusions: These results highlight the need to focus current efforts on addressing disease and mortality experienced by adolescents in Myanmar, with a specific focus on injury, mental health and non-communicable disease.

Gender inequalities in health and wellbeing across the first two decades of life: an analysis of 40 low-income and middle-income countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

BACKGROUND: By adulthood, gender inequalities in health and wellbeing are apparent. Yet, the timing and nature of gender inequalities during childhood and adolescence are less clear. We describe the emergence of gender inequalities in health and wellbeing across the first two decades of life. METHODS: We focused on the 40 low-income and middle-income countries in Asia and the Pacific. A measurement framework was developed around four key domains of wellbeing across the first two decades: health, education and transition to employment, protection, and a safe environment. Specific measurement constructs were then defined by considering gender indicator frameworks, the Sustainable Development Goals, indicator frameworks for child and adolescent health and wellbeing, and key stakeholder input. Available data were then mapped to define 87 indicators, subsequently populated using databases (UN agencies and the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study) and nationally representative surveys. Where possible, estimates in girls were compared with boys to report relative risks. FINDINGS: Although son preference is evident in some settings-as shown by higher than expected male-to-female sex ratios at birth in India, Vietnam, and China (all >1·10 compared with an expected ratio of 1·05) and excess mortality of girl children in some South Asian and Pacific nations-it is during early adolescence where marked gender inequalities consistently emerged. Adolescent girls face considerable disadvantage in relation to sexual and reproductive health (notably in South Asia and the Pacific), with high rates of child marriage (≥30% of women aged 20-24 years married before 18 years in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Afghanistan), fertility (≥65 livebirths per 1000 girls in Nauru, Laos, Afghanistan, Nepal, Marshall Islands, Bangladesh, Vanuatu, and Papua New Guinea), and intimate partner violence (>20% in Timor Leste, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Myanmar). Despite educational parity in many countries, females aged 15-24 years were less likely than males to be in education, employment, or training in 17 of 19 countries for which data were available. Compared with girls, adolescent boys experienced excess all-cause mortality and substantially higher mortality due to unintentional injury, interpersonal violence, alcohol and other drugs, and suicide, and higher prevalence of harmful drinking and tobacco smoking. INTERPRETATION: These findings call for a focus on gender policy and programming in later childhood and early adolescence before gender inequalities become embedded. FUNDING: UNICEF.

Direct assessment of mental health and metabolic syndrome amongst Indonesian adolescents: a study design for a mixed-methods study sampled from school and community settings.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally, with the burden largely borne by people living in low- and middle-income countries. Adolescents are central to NCD control through the potential to modify risks and alter the trajectory of these diseases across the life-course. However, an absence of epidemiological data has contributed to the relative exclusion of adolescents from policies and responses. This paper documents the design of a study to measure the burden of metabolic syndrome (a key risk for NCDs) and poor mental health (a key outcome) amongst Indonesian adolescents. Using a mixed-method design, we sampled 16-18-year-old adolescents from schools and community-based settings across Jakarta and South Sulawesi. Initial formative qualitative enquiry used focus group discussions to understand how young people conceptualise mental health and body weight (separately); what they perceive as determinants of these NCDs; and what responses to these NCDs should involve. These findings informed the design of a quantitative survey that adolescents self-completed electronically. Mental health was measured using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale-Revised (CESD-R) and Kessler-10 (both validated against formal psychiatric interview in a subsample), with the metabolic syndrome measured using biomarkers and anthropometry. The survey also included scales relating to victimisation, connectedness, self-efficacy, body image and quality of life. Adolescents were sampled from schools using a multistage cluster design, and from the community using respondent-driven sampling (RDS). This study will substantially advance the field of NCD measurement amongst adolescents, especially in settings like Indonesia. It demonstrates that high quality, objective measurement is acceptable and feasible, including the collection of biomarkers in a school-based setting. It demonstrates how comparable data can be collected across both in-school and out of school adolescents, allowing a more comprehensive measure of NCD burden, risk and correlates.