RESUMO
The aim of this paper is to estimate the potential impacts of different COVID-19 scenarios on the Italian energy sector through 2030, with a specific focus on transport and industry. The analysis takes a multi-disciplinary approach to properly consider the complex interactions of sectors across Italy. This approach includes the assessment of economic conditions using macroeconomic and input-output models, modelling the evolution of the energy system using an energy and transport model, and forecasting the reaction of travel demand and modal choice using econometric models and expert interviews. Results show that the effect of COVID-19 pandemic may lead to mid-term effects on energy consumption. The medium scenario, which assumes a stop of the emergency by the end of 2021, shows that energy-related emissions remain 10% lower than the baseline in the industry sector and 6% lower in the transport sector by 2030, when compared with a pre-COVID trend. Policy recommendations to support a green recovery are discussed in light of the results.
RESUMO
Decades of techno-economic energy policymaking and research have meant evidence from the Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH)-including critical reflections on what changing a society's relation to energy (efficiency) even means-have been underutilised. In particular, (i) the SSH have too often been sidelined and/or narrowly pigeonholed by policymakers, funders, and other decision-makers when driving research agendas, and (ii) the setting of SSH-focused research agendas has not historically embedded inclusive and deliberative processes. The aim of this paper is to address these gaps through the production of a research agenda outlining future SSH research priorities for energy efficiency. A Horizon Scanning exercise was run, which sought to identify 100 priority SSH questions for energy efficiency research. This exercise included 152 researchers with prior SSH expertise on energy efficiency, who together spanned 62 (sub-)disciplines of SSH, 23 countries, and a full range of career stages. The resultant questions were inductively clustered into seven themes as follows: (1) Citizenship, engagement and knowledge exchange in relation to energy efficiency; (2) Energy efficiency in relation to equity, justice, poverty and vulnerability; (3) Energy efficiency in relation to everyday life and practices of energy consumption and production; (4) Framing, defining and measuring energy efficiency; (5) Governance, policy and political issues around energy efficiency; (6) Roles of economic systems, supply chains and financial mechanisms in improving energy efficiency; and (7) The interactions, unintended consequences and rebound effects of energy efficiency interventions. Given the consistent centrality of energy efficiency in policy programmes, this paper highlights that well-developed SSH approaches are ready to be mobilised to contribute to the development, and/or to understand the implications, of energy efficiency measures and governance solutions. Implicitly, it also emphasises the heterogeneity of SSH policy evidence that can be produced. The agenda will be of use for both (1) those new to the energy-SSH field (including policyworkers), for learnings on the capabilities and capacities of energy-SSH, and (2) established energy-SSH researchers, for insights on the collectively held futures of energy-SSH research.