Genome-wide aggregated trans-effects on risk of type 1 diabetes: A test of the "omnigenic" sparse effector hypothesis of complex trait genetics.

The "omnigenic" hypothesis postulates that the polygenic effects of common SNPs on a typical complex trait are mediated through trans-effects on expression of a relatively sparse set of effector ("core") genes. We tested this hypothesis in a study of 4,964 cases of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and 7,497 controls by using summary statistics to calculate aggregated (excluding the HLA region) trans-scores for gene expression in blood. From associations of T1D with aggregated trans-scores, nine putative core genes were identified, of which three-STAT1, CTLA4 and FOXP3-are genes in which variants cause monogenic forms of autoimmune diabetes. Seven of these genes affect the activity of regulatory T cells, and two are involved in immune responses to microbial lipids. Four T1D-associated genomic regions could be identified as master regulators via trans-effects on gene expression. These results support the sparse effector hypothesis and reshape our understanding of the genetic architecture of T1D.

Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist, has been shown to reduce the risk of adverse cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes. Whether semaglutide can reduce cardiovascular risk associated with overweight and obesity in the absence of diabetes is unknown. METHODS: In a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, event-driven superiority trial, we enrolled patients 45 years of age or older who had preexisting cardiovascular disease and a body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of 27 or greater but no history of diabetes. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide at a dose of 2.4 mg or placebo. The primary cardiovascular end point was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke in a time-to-first-event analysis. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: A total of 17,604 patients were enrolled; 8803 were assigned to receive semaglutide and 8801 to receive placebo. The mean (±SD) duration of exposure to semaglutide or placebo was 34.2±13.7 months, and the mean duration of follow-up was 39.8±9.4 months. A primary cardiovascular end-point event occurred in 569 of the 8803 patients (6.5%) in the semaglutide group and in 701 of the 8801 patients (8.0%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.72 to 0.90; P<0.001). Adverse events leading to permanent discontinuation of the trial product occurred in 1461 patients (16.6%) in the semaglutide group and 718 patients (8.2%) in the placebo group (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with preexisting cardiovascular disease and overweight or obesity but without diabetes, weekly subcutaneous semaglutide at a dose of 2.4 mg was superior to placebo in reducing the incidence of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke at a mean follow-up of 39.8 months. (Funded by Novo Nordisk; SELECT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03574597.).

Estimating risk of consequences following hypoglycaemia exposure using the Hypo-RESOLVE cohort: a secondary analysis of pooled data from insulin clinical trials.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Whether hypoglycaemia increases the risk of other adverse outcomes in diabetes remains controversial, especially for hypoglycaemia episodes not requiring assistance from another person. An objective of the Hypoglycaemia REdefining SOLutions for better liVEs (Hypo-RESOLVE) project was to create and use a dataset of pooled clinical trials in people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes to examine the association of exposure to all hypoglycaemia episodes across the range of severity with incident event outcomes: death, CVD, neuropathy, kidney disease, retinal disorders and depression. We also examined the change in continuous outcomes that occurred following a hypoglycaemia episode: change in eGFR, HbA1c, blood glucose, blood glucose variability and weight. METHODS: Data from 84 trials with 39,373 participants were pooled. For event outcomes, time-updated Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, diabetes duration and HbA1c were fitted to assess association between: (1) outcome and cumulative exposure to hypoglycaemia episodes; and (2) outcomes where an acute effect might be expected (i.e. death, acute CVD, retinal disorders) and any hypoglycaemia exposure within the last 10 days. Exposures to any hypoglycaemia episode and to episodes of given severity (levels 1, 2 and 3) were examined. Further adjustment was then made for a wider set of potential confounders. The within-person change in continuous outcomes was also summarised (median of 40.4 weeks for type 1 diabetes and 26 weeks for type 2 diabetes). Analyses were conducted separately by type of diabetes. RESULTS: The maximally adjusted association analysis for type 1 diabetes found that cumulative exposure to hypoglycaemia episodes of any level was associated with higher risks of neuropathy, kidney disease, retinal disorders and depression, with risk ratios ranging from 1.55 (p=0.002) to 2.81 (p=0.002). Associations of a similar direction were found when level 1 episodes were examined separately but were significant for depression only. For type 2 diabetes cumulative exposure to hypoglycaemia episodes of any level was associated with higher risks of death, acute CVD, kidney disease, retinal disorders and depression, with risk ratios ranging from 2.35 (p<0.0001) to 3.00 (p<0.0001). These associations remained significant when level 1 episodes were examined separately. There was evidence of an association between hypoglycaemia episodes of any kind in the previous 10 days and death, acute CVD and retinal disorders in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes, with rate ratios ranging from 1.32 (p=0.017) to 2.68 (p<0.0001). These associations varied in magnitude and significance when examined separately by hypoglycaemia level. Within the range of hypoglycaemia defined by levels 1, 2 and 3, we could not find any evidence of a threshold at which risk of these consequences suddenly became pronounced. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These data are consistent with hypoglycaemia being associated with an increased risk of adverse events across several body systems in diabetes. These associations are not confined to severe hypoglycaemia requiring assistance.

Risk factors and prediction of hypoglycaemia using the Hypo-RESOLVE cohort: a secondary analysis of pooled data from insulin clinical trials.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The objective of the Hypoglycaemia REdefining SOLutions for better liVES (Hypo-RESOLVE) project is to use a dataset of pooled clinical trials across pharmaceutical and device companies in people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes to examine factors associated with incident hypoglycaemia events and to quantify the prediction of these events. METHODS: Data from 90 trials with 46,254 participants were pooled. Analyses were done for type 1 and type 2 diabetes separately. Poisson mixed models, adjusted for age, sex, diabetes duration and trial identifier were fitted to assess the association of clinical variables with hypoglycaemia event counts. Tree-based gradient-boosting algorithms (XGBoost) were fitted using training data and their predictive performance in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) evaluated on test data. Baseline models including age, sex and diabetes duration were compared with models that further included a score of hypoglycaemia in the first 6 weeks from study entry, and full models that included further clinical variables. The relative predictive importance of each covariate was assessed using XGBoost's importance procedure. Prediction across the entire trial duration for each trial (mean of 34.8 weeks for type 1 diabetes and 25.3 weeks for type 2 diabetes) was assessed. RESULTS: For both type 1 and type 2 diabetes, variables associated with more frequent hypoglycaemia included female sex, white ethnicity, longer diabetes duration, treatment with human as opposed to analogue-only insulin, higher glucose variability, higher score for hypoglycaemia across the 6 week baseline period, lower BP, lower lipid levels and treatment with psychoactive drugs. Prediction of any hypoglycaemia event of any severity was greater than prediction of hypoglycaemia requiring assistance (level 3 hypoglycaemia), for which events were sparser. For prediction of level 1 or worse hypoglycaemia during the whole follow-up period, the AUC was 0.835 (95% CI 0.826, 0.844) in type 1 diabetes and 0.840 (95% CI 0.831, 0.848) in type 2 diabetes. For level 3 hypoglycaemia, the AUC was lower at 0.689 (95% CI 0.667, 0.712) for type 1 diabetes and 0.705 (95% CI 0.662, 0.748) for type 2 diabetes. Compared with the baseline models, almost all the improvement in prediction could be captured by the individual's hypoglycaemia history, glucose variability and blood glucose over a 6 week baseline period. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Although hypoglycaemia rates show large variation according to sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and treatment history, looking at a 6 week period of hypoglycaemia events and glucose measurements predicts future hypoglycaemia risk.

Consensus guidance for monitoring individuals with islet autoantibody-positive pre-stage 3 type 1 diabetes.

Given the proven benefits of screening to reduce diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) likelihood at the time of stage 3 type 1 diabetes diagnosis, and emerging availability of therapy to delay disease progression, type 1 diabetes screening programmes are being increasingly emphasised. Once broadly implemented, screening initiatives will identify significant numbers of islet autoantibody-positive (IAb+) children and adults who are at risk of (confirmed single IAb+) or living with (multiple IAb+) early-stage (stage 1 and stage 2) type 1 diabetes. These individuals will need monitoring for disease progression; much of this care will happen in non-specialised settings. To inform this monitoring, JDRF in conjunction with international experts and societies developed consensus guidance. Broad advice from this guidance includes the following: (1) partnerships should be fostered between endocrinologists and primary-care providers to care for people who are IAb+; (2) when people who are IAb+ are initially identified there is a need for confirmation using a second sample; (3) single IAb+ individuals are at lower risk of progression than multiple IAb+ individuals; (4) individuals with early-stage type 1 diabetes should have periodic medical monitoring, including regular assessments of glucose levels, regular education about symptoms of diabetes and DKA, and psychosocial support; (5) interested people with stage 2 type 1 diabetes should be offered trial participation or approved therapies; and (6) all health professionals involved in monitoring and care of individuals with type 1 diabetes have a responsibility to provide education. The guidance also emphasises significant unmet needs for further research on early-stage type 1 diabetes to increase the rigour of future recommendations and inform clinical care.

Flash monitor initiation is associated with improvements in HbA1c levels and DKA rates among people with type 1 diabetes in Scotland: a retrospective nationwide observational study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We assessed the real-world effect of flash monitor (FM) usage on HbA1c levels and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia (SHH) rates among people with type 1 diabetes in Scotland and across sociodemographic strata within this population. METHODS: This study was retrospective, observational and registry based. Using the national diabetes registry, 14,682 individuals using an FM at any point between 2014 and mid-2020 were identified. Within-person change from baseline in HbA1c following FM initiation was modelled using linear mixed models accounting for within-person pre-exposure trajectory. DKA and SHH events were captured through linkage to hospital admission and mortality data. The difference in DKA and SHH rates between FM-exposed and -unexposed person-time was assessed among users, using generalised linear mixed models with a Poisson likelihood. In a sensitivity analysis, we tested whether changes in these outcomes were seen in an age-, sex- and baseline HbA1c-matched sample of non-users over the same time period. RESULTS: Prevalence of ever-FM use was 45.9% by mid-2020, with large variations by age and socioeconomic status: 64.3% among children aged <13 years vs 32.7% among those aged ≥65 years; and 54.4% vs 36.2% in the least-deprived vs most-deprived quintile. Overall, the median (IQR) within-person change in HbA1c in the year following FM initiation was -2.5 (-9.0, 2.5) mmol/mol (-0.2 [-0.8, 0.2]%). The change varied widely by pre-usage HbA1c: -15.5 (-31.0, -4.0) mmol/mol (-1.4 [-2.8, -0.4]%) in those with HbA1c > 84 mmol/mol [9.8%] and 1.0 (-2.0, 5.5) mmol/mol (0.1 [-0.2, 0.5]%) in those with HbA1c < 54 mmol/mol (7.1%); the corresponding estimated fold change (95% CI) was 0.77 (0.76, 0.78) and 1.08 (1.07, 1.09). Significant reductions in HbA1c were found in all age bands, sexes and socioeconomic strata, and regardless of prior/current pump use, completion of a diabetes education programme or early FM adoption. Variation between the strata of these factors beyond that driven by differing HbA1c at baseline was slight. No change in HbA1c in matched non-users was observed in the same time period (median [IQR] within-person change = 0.5 [-5.0, 5.5] mmol/mol [0.0 (-0.5, 0.5)%]). DKA rates decreased after FM initiation overall and in all strata apart from the adolescents. Estimated overall reduction in DKA event rates (rate ratio) was 0.59 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0.53, 0.64]) after FM vs before FM initiation, accounting for pre-exposure trend. Finally, among those at higher risk for SHH, estimated reduction in event rates was rate ratio 0.25 (95%CrI 0.20, 0.32) after FM vs before FM initiation. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: FM initiation is associated with clinically important reductions in HbA1c and striking reduction in DKA rate. Increasing uptake among the socioeconomically disadvantaged offers considerable potential for tightening the current socioeconomic disparities in glycaemia-related outcomes.

Similar cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes and established or high risk for coronary vascular disease treated with dulaglutide with and without baseline metformin.

OBJECTIVE: Recent European Guidelines for Diabetes, Prediabetes and Cardiovascular Diseases introduced a shift in managing patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk for or established cardiovascular (CV) disease by recommending GLP-1 receptor agonists and SGLT-2 inhibitors as initial glucose-lowering therapy. This is questioned since outcome trials of these drug classes had metformin as background therapy. In this post hoc analysis, the effect of dulaglutide on CV events was investigated according to the baseline metformin therapy by means of a subgroup analysis of the Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Patients in REWIND (n = 9901; women: 46.3%; mean age: 66.2 years) had type 2 diabetes and either a previous CV event (31%) or high CV risk (69%). They were randomized (1:1) to sc. dulaglutide (1.5 mg/weekly) or placebo in addition to standard of care. The primary outcome was the first of a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and death from cardiovascular or unknown causes. Key secondary outcomes included a microvascular composite endpoint, all-cause death, and heart failure. The effect of dulaglutide in patients with and without baseline metformin was evaluated by a Cox regression hazard model with baseline metformin, dulaglutide assignment, and their interaction as independent variables. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by a Cox regression model with adjustments for factors differing at baseline between people with vs. without metformin, identified using the backward selection. RESULTS: Compared to patients with metformin at baseline (n = 8037; 81%), those without metformin (n = 1864; 19%) were older and slightly less obese and had higher proportions of women, prior CV events, heart failure, and renal disease. The primary outcome occurred in 976 (12%) participants with baseline metformin and in 281 (15%) without. There was no significant difference in the effect of dulaglutide on the primary outcome in patients with vs. without metformin at baseline [HR 0.92 (CI 0.81-1.05) vs. 0.78 (CI 0.61-0.99); interaction P = 0.18]. Findings for key secondary outcomes were similar in patients with and without baseline metformin. CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that the cardioprotective effect of dulaglutide is unaffected by the baseline use of metformin therapy.

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion therapy is associated with reduced retinopathy progression compared with multiple daily injections of insulin.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to compare diabetic retinopathy outcomes in people with type 1 diabetes following introduction of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) therapy with outcomes in people receiving continuing therapy with multiple daily insulin injections (MDI). METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study using the Scottish Care Information - Diabetes database for retinal screening outcomes and HbA1c changes in 204 adults commenced on CSII therapy between 2013 and 2016, and 211 adults eligible for CSII during the same period but who continued on MDI therapy. Diabetic retinopathy progression (time to minimum one-grade worsening in diabetic retinopathy from baseline grading) was plotted for CSII and MDI cohorts using Kaplan-Meier curves, and outcomes were compared using multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusting for age, sex, baseline HbA1c, blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking status and socioeconomic quintile. Impact of baseline HbA1c and change in HbA1c on diabetic retinopathy progression was assessed within CSII and MDI cohorts. RESULTS: CSII participants were significantly younger, were from less socially deprived areas, and had lower HbA1c and higher diastolic BP at baseline. There was a larger reduction in HbA1c at 1 year in those on CSII vs MDI (-6 mmol/mol [-0.6%] vs -2 mmol/mol [-0.2%], p < 0.01). Diabetic retinopathy progression occurred in a smaller proportion of adults following commencement of CSII vs continued MDI therapy over mean 2.3 year follow-up (26.5% vs 18.6%, p = 0.0097). High baseline HbA1c (75 mmol/mol [9%]) was associated with diabetic retinopathy progression in the MDI group (p = 0.0049) but not the CSII group (p = 0.93). Change in HbA1c at follow-up, irrespective of baseline glycaemic status, did not significantly affect diabetic retinopathy progression in either group. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: CSII was associated with reduced diabetic retinopathy progression compared with continued MDI therapy, and may be protective against diabetic retinopathy progression for those with high baseline HbA1c. Progression of diabetic retinopathy over 3 years was not associated with a change in HbA1c.

Development and validation of a cardiovascular risk prediction model in type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to report current rates of CVD in type 1 diabetes and to develop a CVD risk prediction tool for type 1 diabetes. METHODS: A cohort of 27,527 people with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD was derived from the national register in Scotland. Incident CVD events during 199,552 person-years of follow-up were ascertained using hospital admissions and death registers. A Poisson regression model of CVD was developed and then validated in the Swedish National Diabetes Register (n = 33,183). We compared the percentage with a high 10 year CVD risk (i.e., ≥10%) using the model with the percentage eligible for statins using current guidelines by age. RESULTS: The age-standardised rate of CVD per 100,000 person-years was 4070 and 3429 in men and women, respectively, with type 1 diabetes in Scotland, and 4014 and 3956 in men and women in Sweden. The final model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p > 0.05) and included a further 22 terms over a base model of age, sex and diabetes duration (C statistic 0.82; 95% CI 0.81, 0.83). The model increased the base model C statistic from 0.66 to 0.80, from 0.60 to 0.75 and from 0.62 to 0.68 in those aged <40, 40-59 and ≥ 60 years, respectively (all p values <0.005). The model required minimal calibration in Sweden and had a C statistic of 0.85. Under current guidelines, >90% of those aged 20-39 years and 100% of those ≥40 years with type 1 diabetes were eligible for statins, but it was not until age 65 upwards that 100% had a modelled risk of CVD ≥10% in 10 years. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: A prediction tool such as that developed here can provide individualised risk predictions. This 10 year CVD risk prediction tool could facilitate patient discussions regarding appropriate statin prescribing. Apart from 10 year risk, such discussions may also consider longer-term CVD risk, the potential for greater benefits from early vs later statin intervention, the potential impact on quality of life of an early CVD event and evidence on safety, all of which could influence treatment decisions, particularly in younger people with type 1 diabetes.

The association of polypharmacy and high-risk drug classes with adverse health outcomes in the Scottish population with type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to map the number of prescribed drugs over age, sex and area-based socioeconomic deprivation, and to examine the association between the number of drugs and particular high-risk drug classes with adverse health outcomes among a national cohort of individuals with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Utilising linked healthcare records from the population-based diabetes register of Scotland, we identified 28,245 individuals with a diagnosis of type 1 diabetes on 1 January 2017. For this population, we obtained information on health status, predominantly reflecting diabetes-related complications, and information on the total number of drugs and particular high-risk drug classes prescribed. We then studied the association of these baseline-level features with hospital admissions for falls, diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), and hypoglycaemia or death within the subsequent year using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Not considering insulin and treatment for hypoglycaemia, the mean number of prescribed drugs was 4.00 (SD 4.35). The proportion of individuals being prescribed five or more drugs at baseline consistently increased with age (proportion [95% CI]: 0-19 years 2.04% [1.60, 2.49]; 40-49 years 28.50% [27.08, 29.93]; 80+ years 76.04% [67.73, 84.84]). Controlling for age, sex, area-based socioeconomic deprivation and health status, each additional drug at baseline was associated with an increase in the hazard for hospitalisation for falls, hypoglycaemia and death but not for DKA admissions (HR [95% CI]: falls 1.03 [1.01, 1.06]; DKA 1.01 [1.00, 1.03]; hypoglycaemia 1.05 [1.02, 1.07]; death 1.04 [1.02, 1.06]). We found a number of drug classes to be associated with an increased hazard of one or more of these adverse health outcomes, including antithrombotic/anticoagulant agents, corticosteroids, opioids, antiepileptics, antipsychotics, hypnotics and sedatives, and antidepressants. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy is common among the Scottish population with type 1 diabetes and is strongly patterned by sociodemographic factors. The number of prescribed drugs and the prescription of particular high-risk drug classes are strong markers of an increased risk of adverse health outcomes, including acute complications of diabetes.

Marked improvements in glycaemic outcomes following insulin pump therapy initiation in people with type 1 diabetes: a nationwide observational study in Scotland.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to assess the use of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) in people with type 1 diabetes in Scotland and its association with glycaemic control, as measured by HbA1c levels, frequency of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia (SHH), overall and stratified by baseline HbA1c. METHODS: We included 4684 individuals with type 1 diabetes from the national Scottish register, who commenced CSII between 2004 and 2019. We presented crude within-person differences from baseline HbA1c over time since initiation, crude DKA and SHH event-rates pre-/post-CSII exposure. We then used mixed models to assess the significance of CSII exposure, taking into account: (1) the diffuse nature of the intervention (i.e. structured education often precedes initiation); (2) repeated within-person measurements; and (3) background time-trends occurring pre-intervention. RESULTS: HbA1c decreased after CSII initiation, with a median within-person change of -5.5 mmol/mol (IQR -12.0, 0.0) (-0.5% [IQR -1.1, 0.0]). Within-person changes were most substantial in those with the highest baseline HbA1c, with median -21.0 mmol/mol (-30.0, -11.0) (-1.9% [-2.7, -1.0]) change in those with a baseline >84 mmol/mol (9.8%) within a year of exposure, that was sustained: -19.0 mmol/mol (-27.6, -6.5) (-1.7% [-2.5, -0.6]) at ≥5 years. Statistical significance and magnitude of change were supported by the mixed models results. The crude DKA event-rate was significantly lower in post-CSII person-time compared with pre-CSII person-time: 49.6 events (95% CI 46.3, 53.1) per 1000 person-years vs 67.9 (64.1, 71.9); rate ratio from Bayesian mixed models adjusting for pre-exposure trend: 0.61 (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.47, 0.77; posterior probability of reduction pp = 1.00). The crude overall SHH event-rate in post-CSII vs pre-CSII person-time was also lower: 17.8 events (95% CI 15.8, 19.9) per 1000 person-years post-exposure vs 25.8 (23.5, 28.3) pre-exposure; rate ratio from Bayesian mixed models adjusting for pre-exposure trend: 0.67 (95% CrI 0.45, 1.01; pp = 0.97). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: CSII therapy was associated with marked falls in HbA1c especially in those with high baseline HbA1c. CSII was independently associated with reduced DKA and SHH rates. CSII appears to be an effective option for intensive insulin therapy in people with diabetes for improving suboptimal glycaemic control.

Quantitative levels of serum N-glycans in type 1 diabetes and their association with kidney disease.

We investigated associations of quantitative levels of N-glycans with hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), renal function and renal function decline in type 1 diabetes. We measured 46 total N-glycan peaks (GPs) on 1565 serum samples from the Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource Study (SDRNT1BIO) and a pool of healthy donors. Quantitation of absolute abundance of each GP used 2AB-labeled mannose-3 as a standard. We studied cross-sectional associations of GPs and derived measures with HbA1c, albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and prospective associations with incident albuminuria and final eGFR. All GPs were 1.4 to 3.2 times more abundant in SDRTN1BIO than in the healthy samples. Absolute levels of all GPs were slightly higher with higher HbA1c, with strongest associations for triantennary trigalactosylated disialylated, triantennary trigalactosylated trisialylated structures with core or outer arm fucose, and tetraantennary tetragalactosylated trisialylated glycans. Most GPs showed increased abundance with worsening ACR. Lower eGFR was associated with higher absolute GP levels, most significantly with biantennary digalactosylated disialylated glycans with and without bisect, triantennary trigalactosylated trisialylated glycans with and without outer arm fucose, and core fucosylated biantennary monogalactosylated monosialylated glycans. Although several GPs were inversely associated prospectively with final eGFR, cross-validated multivariable models did not improve prediction beyond clinical covariates. Elevated HbA1c is associated with an altered N-glycan profile in type 1 diabetes. Although we could not establish GPs to be prognostic of future renal function decline independently of HbA1c, further studies to evaluate their impact in the pathogenesis of diabetic kidney disease are warranted.

Relation of severe COVID-19 in Scotland to transmission-related factors and risk conditions eligible for shielding support: REACT-SCOT case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Clinically vulnerable individuals have been advised to shield themselves during the COVID-19 epidemic. The objectives of this study were to investigate (1) the rate ratio of severe COVID-19 associated with eligibility for the shielding programme in Scotland across the first and second waves of the epidemic and (2) the relation of severe COVID-19 to transmission-related factors in those in shielding and the general population. METHODS: In a matched case-control design, all 178,578 diagnosed cases of COVID-19 in Scotland from 1 March 2020 to 18 February 2021 were matched for age, sex and primary care practice to 1,744,283 controls from the general population. This dataset (REACT-SCOT) was linked to the list of 212,702 individuals identified as eligible for shielding. Severe COVID-19 was defined as cases that entered critical care or were fatal. Rate ratios were estimated by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: With those without risk conditions as reference category, the univariate rate ratio for severe COVID-19 was 3.21 (95% CI 3.01 to 3.41) in those with moderate risk conditions and 6.3 (95% CI 5.8 to 6.8) in those eligible for shielding. The highest rate was in solid organ transplant recipients: rate ratio 13.4 (95% CI 9.6 to 18.8). Risk of severe COVID-19 increased with the number of adults but decreased with the number of school-age children in the household. Severe COVID-19 was strongly associated with recent exposure to hospital (defined as 5 to 14 days before presentation date): rate ratio 12.3 (95% CI 11.5 to 13.2) overall. The population attributable risk fraction for recent exposure to hospital peaked at 50% in May 2020 and again at 65% in December 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of shielding vulnerable individuals was limited by the inability to control transmission in hospital and from other adults in the household. Mitigating the impact of the epidemic requires control of nosocomial transmission.

Relation of severe COVID-19 to polypharmacy and prescribing of psychotropic drugs: the REACT-SCOT case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to investigate the relation of severe COVID-19 to prior drug prescribing. METHODS: Severe cases were defined by entry to critical care or fatal outcome. For this matched case-control study (REACT-SCOT), all 4251 cases of severe COVID-19 in Scotland since the start of the epidemic were matched for age, sex and primary care practice to 36,738 controls from the population register. Records were linked to hospital discharges since June 2015 and dispensed prescriptions issued in primary care during the last 240 days. RESULTS: Severe COVID-19 was strongly associated with the number of non-cardiovascular drug classes dispensed. This association was strongest in those not resident in a care home, in whom the rate ratio (95% CI) associated with dispensing of 12 or more drug classes versus none was 10.8 (8.8, 13.3), and in those without any of the conditions designated as conferring increased risk of COVID-19. Of 17 drug classes postulated at the start of the epidemic to be "medications compromising COVID", all were associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 and these associations were present in those without any of the designated risk conditions. The fraction of cases in the population attributable to exposure to these drug classes was 38%. The largest effect was for antipsychotic agents: rate ratio 4.18 (3.42, 5.11). Other drug classes with large effects included proton pump inhibitors (rate ratio 2.20 (1.72, 2.83) for = 2 defined daily doses/day), opioids (3.66 (2.68, 5.01) for = 50 mg morphine equivalent/day) and gabapentinoids. These associations persisted after adjusting for covariates and were stronger with recent than with non-recent exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Severe COVID-19 is associated with polypharmacy and with drugs that cause sedation, respiratory depression, or dyskinesia; have anticholinergic effects; or affect the gastrointestinal system. These associations are not easily explained by co-morbidity. Measures to reduce the burden of mortality and morbidity from COVID-19 should include reinforcing existing guidance on reducing overprescribing of these drug classes and limiting inappropriate polypharmacy. REGISTRATION: ENCEPP number EUPAS35558.

Exploring potential mediators of the cardiovascular benefit of dulaglutide in type 2 diabetes patients in REWIND.

BACKGROUND: The REWIND trial demonstrated cardiovascular (CV) benefits to patients with type 2 diabetes and multiple CV risk factors or established CV disease. This exploratory analysis evaluated the degree to which the effect of dulaglutide on CV risk factors could statistically account for its effects on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in the REWIND trial. METHODS: Potential mediators of established CV risk factors that were significantly reduced by dulaglutide were assessed in a post hoc analysis using repeated measures mixed models and included glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), body weight, waist-to-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR). These factors, for which the change in level during follow-up was significantly associated with incident MACE, were identified using Cox regression modeling. Each identified variable was then included as a covariate in the Cox model assessing the effect of dulaglutide on MACE to estimate the degree to which the hazard ratio of dulaglutide vs placebo was attenuated. The combined effect of the variables associated with attenuation was assessed by including all variables in an additional Cox model. RESULTS: Although all evaluated variables were significantly improved by treatment, only changes in HbA1c and UACR were associated with MACE and a reduction in the effect of dulaglutide on this outcome was observed. The observed hazard ratio for MACE for dulaglutide vs placebo reduced by 36.1% by the updated mean HbA1c, and by 28.5% by the updated mean UACR. A similar pattern was observed for change from baseline in HbA1c and UACR and a reduction of 16.7% and 25.4%, respectively in the hazard ratio for MACE with dulaglutide vs placebo was observed. When HbA1c and UACR were both included, the observed hazard ratio reduced by 65.4% for the updated mean and 41.7% for the change from baseline with no HbA1c-UACR interaction (P interaction = 0.75 and 0.15, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment-induced improvement in HbA1c and UACR, but not changes in weight, systolic blood pressure, or LDL cholesterol, appear to partly mediate the beneficial effects of dulaglutide on MACE outcomes. These observations suggest that the proven effects of dulaglutide on cardiovascular disease benefit are partially related to changes in glycemic control and albuminuria, with residual unexplained benefit. Clinicaltrials.gov; Trial registration number: NCT01394952. URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01394952.

PRF1 mutation alters immune system activation, inflammation, and risk of autoimmunity.

BACKGROUND: Defective alleles within the PRF1 gene, encoding the pore-forming protein perforin, in combination with environmental factors, cause familial type 2 hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (FHL2), a rare, severe autosomal recessive childhood disorder characterized by massive release of cytokines-cytokine storm. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the function of hypomorph PRF1:p.A91V g.72360387 G > A on multiple sclerosis (MS) and type 1 diabetes (T1D). METHODS: We cross-compare the association data for PRF1:p.A91V mutation derived from GWAS on adult MS and pediatric T1D in Sardinians. The novel association with T1D was replicated in metanalysis in 12,584 cases and 17,692 controls from Sardinia, the United Kingdom, and Scotland. To dissect this mutation function, we searched through the coincident association immunophenotypes in additional set of general population Sardinians. RESULTS: We report that PRF1:p.A91V, is associated with increase of lymphocyte levels, especially within the cytotoxic memory T-cells, at general population level with reduced interleukin 7 receptor expression on these cells. The minor allele increased risk of MS, in 2903 cases and 2880 controls from Sardinia p = 2.06 × 10-4, odds ratio OR = 1.29, replicating a previous finding, whereas it protects from T1D p = 1.04 × 10-5, OR = 0.82. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate opposing contributions of the cytotoxic T-cell compartment to MS and T1D pathogenesis.

Metformin and carotid intima-media thickness in never-smokers with type 1 diabetes: The REMOVAL trial.

AIM: To determine whether metformin's effects on carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) in type 1 diabetes differ according to smoking status. METHODS: Regression model effect estimates for the effect of metformin versus placebo (double-blind) on carotid IMT were calculated as a subgroup analysis of the REMOVAL trial. RESULTS: In 428 randomized participants (227 never-smokers, 201 ever-smokers), averaged mean carotid IMT progression (per year) was reduced by metformin versus placebo in never-smokers (-0.012 mm, 95% CI -0.021 to -0.002; p = .0137) but not in ever-smokers (0.003 mm, 95% CI -0.008 to 0.014; p = .5767); and similarly in non-current smokers (-0.008 mm, 95% CI -0.015 to -0.00001; p = .0497) but not in current smokers (0.013 mm, 95% CI -0.007 to 0.032; p = .1887). Three-way interaction terms (treatment*time*smoking status) were significant for never versus ever smoking (p = .0373, prespecified) and non-current versus current smoking (p = .0496, exploratory). Averaged maximal carotid IMT progression (per year) was reduced by metformin versus placebo in never-smokers (-0.020 mm, 95% CI -0.034 to -0.006; p = .0067) but not in ever-smokers (-0.006 mm, 95% CI -0.020 to 0.008; p = .4067), although this analysis was not supported by a significant three-way interaction term. CONCLUSIONS: This subgroup analysis of the REMOVAL trial provides additional support for a potentially wider role of adjunct metformin therapy in cardiovascular risk management in type 1 diabetes, particularly for individuals who have never smoked cigarettes.

Association of cerebral venous thrombosis with recent COVID-19 vaccination: case-crossover study using ascertainment through neuroimaging in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the association of primary acute cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) with COVID-19 vaccination through complete ascertainment of all diagnosed CVT in the population of Scotland. METHODS: Case-crossover study comparing cases of CVT recently exposed to vaccination (1-14 days after vaccination) with cases less recently exposed. Cases in Scotland from 1 December 2020 were ascertained through neuroimaging studies up to 17 May 2021 and diagnostic coding of hospital discharges up to 28 April 2021, linked to national vaccination records. The main outcome measure was primary acute CVT. RESULTS: Of 50 primary acute CVT cases, 29 were ascertained only from neuroimaging studies, 2 were ascertained only from hospital discharges, and 19 were ascertained from both sources. Of these 50 cases, 14 had received the Astra-Zeneca ChAdOx1 vaccine and 3 the Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine. The incidence of CVT per million doses in the first 14 days after vaccination was 2.2 (95% credible interval 0.9 to 4.1) for ChAdOx1 and 1 (95% credible interval 0.1 to 2.9) for BNT162b2. The rate ratio for CVT associated with exposure to ChAdOx1 in the first 14 days compared with exposure 15-84 days after vaccination was 3.2 (95% credible interval 1.1 to 9.5). CONCLUSIONS: These findings support a causal association between CVT and the AstraZeneca vaccine. The absolute risk of post-vaccination CVT in this population-wide study in Scotland was lower than has been reported for populations in Scandinavia and Germany; the explanation for this is not clear.

Predicting renal disease progression in a large contemporary cohort with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to provide data from a contemporary population-representative cohort on rates and predictors of renal decline in type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We used data from a cohort of 5777 people with type 1 diabetes aged 16 and older, diagnosed before the age of 50, and representative of the adult population with type 1 diabetes in Scotland (Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource; SDRNT1BIO). We measured serum creatinine and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) at recruitment and linked the data to the national electronic healthcare records. RESULTS: Median age was 44.1 years and diabetes duration 20.9 years. The prevalence of CKD stages G1, G2, G3 and G4 and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) was 64.0%, 29.3%, 5.4%, 0.6%, 0.7%, respectively. Micro/macroalbuminuria prevalence was 8.6% and 3.0%, respectively. The incidence rate of ESRD was 2.5 (95% CI 1.9, 3.2) per 1000 person-years. The majority (59%) of those with chronic kidney disease stages G3-G5 did not have albuminuria on the day of recruitment or previously. Over 11.6 years of observation, the median annual decline in eGFR was modest at -1.3 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2 year-1 (interquartile range [IQR]: -2.2, -0.4). However, 14% experienced a more significant loss of at least 3 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2. These decliners had more cardiovascular disease (OR 1.9, p = 5 × 10-5) and retinopathy (OR 1.3 p = 0.02). Adding HbA1c, prior cardiovascular disease, recent mean eGFR and prior trajectory of eGFR to a model with age, sex, diabetes duration, current eGFR and ACR maximised the prediction of final eGFR (r2 increment from 0.698 to 0.745, p < 10-16). Attempting to model nonlinearity in eGFR decline or to detect latent classes of decliners did not improve prediction. CONCLUSIONS: These data show much lower levels of kidney disease than historical estimates. However, early identification of those destined to experience significant decline in eGFR remains challenging.

Time trends in deaths before age 50 years in people with type 1 diabetes: a nationwide analysis from Scotland 2004-2017.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to examine whether crude mortality and mortality relative to the general population below 50 years of age have improved in recent years in those with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Individuals with type 1 diabetes aged below 50 and at least 1 year old at any time between 2004 and 2017 in Scotland were identified using the national register. Death data were obtained by linkage to Scottish national death registrations. Indirect age standardisation was used to calculate sex-specific standardised mortality ratios (SMRs). Poisson regression was used to test for calendar-time effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). RESULTS: There were 1138 deaths in 251,143 person-years among 27,935 people with type 1 diabetes. There was a significant decline in mortality rate over time (IRR for calendar year 0.983 [95% CI 0.967, 0.998], p = 0.03), but the SMR remained approximately stable at 3.1 and 3.6 in men and 4.09 and 4.16 in women for 2004 and 2017, respectively. Diabetic ketoacidosis or coma (DKAoC) accounted for 22% of deaths and the rate did not decline significantly (IRR 0.975 [95% CI 0.94, 1.011], p = 0.168); 79.3% of DKAoC deaths occurred out of hospital. Circulatory diseases accounted for 27% of deaths and did decline significantly (IRR 0.946 [95% CI 0.914, 0.979], p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Absolute mortality has fallen, but the relative impact of type 1 diabetes on mortality below 50 years has not improved. There is scope to improve prevention of premature circulatory diseases and DKAoC and to develop more effective strategies for enabling people with type 1 diabetes to avoid clinically significant hyper- or hypoglycaemia. Graphical abstract.