Comparing Clinician Consensus Recommendations to Patient-reported Opioid Use Across Multiple Hospital Systems.

OBJECTIVE: We compare consensus recommendations for 5 surgical procedures to prospectively collected patient consumption data. To address local variation, we combined data from multiple hospitals across the country. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: One approach to address the opioid epidemic has been to create prescribing consensus reports for common surgical procedures. However, it is unclear how these guidelines compare to patient-reported data from multiple hospital systems. METHODS: Prospective observational studies of surgery patients were completed between 3/2017 and 12/2018. Data were collected utilizing post-discharge surveys and chart reviews from 5 hospitals (representing 3 hospital systems) in 5 states across the USA. Prescribing recommendations for 5 common surgical procedures identified in 2 recent consensus reports were compared to the prospectively collected aggregated data. Surgeries included: laparoscopic cholecystectomy, open inguinal hernia repair, laparoscopic inguinal hernia repair, partial mastectomy without sentinel lymph node biopsy, and partial mastectomy with sentinel lymph node biopsy. RESULTS: Eight hundred forty-seven opioid-naïve patients who underwent 1 of the 5 studied procedures reported counts of unused opioid pills after discharge. Forty-one percent did not take any opioid medications, and across all surgeries, the median consumption was 3 5 mg oxycodone pills or less. Generally, consensus reports recommended opioid quantities that were greater than the 75th percentile of consumption, and for 2 procedures, recommendations exceeded the 90th percentile of consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Although consensus recommendations were an important first step to address opioid prescribing, our data suggests that following these recommendations would result in 47%-56% of pills prescribed remaining unused. Future multi-institutional efforts should be directed toward refining and personalizing prescribing recommendations.

Cytomegalovirus immunoglobulin G titers do not predict reactivation risk in immunocompetent hosts.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation occurs in roughly one-third of immunocompetent patients during critical illness, and is associated with worse outcomes. These outcomes have prompted consideration of early antiviral prophylaxis, but two-third of patients would receive unnecessary treatment. Tissue viral load has been associated with risk of reactivation in murine models, and recent work has suggested a relationship between immune responses to CMV and underlying viral load. We, therefore, sought to confirm the hypothesis that serum CMV-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) correlates with tissue viral load, and might be used to predict the risk of reactivation during critical illness. We confirm that there is a good correlation between tissue viral load and serum CMV-specific IgG after laboratory infection of inbred mice. Further, we show that naturally infected outbred hosts have variable tissue viral DNA loads that do not correlate well with serum IgG. Perhaps as a consequence, CMV-specific IgG was not predictive of reactivation events in immunocompetent humans. When reactivation did occur, those with the lowest IgG levels had longer durations of reactivation, but IgG quartiles were not associated with differing peak DNAemia. Together our data suggest that CMV-specific IgG titers diverge from tissue viral loads in outbred immunocompetent hosts, and their importance for the control of reactivation events remains unclear.

Impact of cytomegalovirus load on host response to sepsis.

There is a decades old association between cytomegalovirus reactivation and sepsis in immune-competent hosts. Much has been learned about this relationship, which has been described as bidirectional, meaning that the virus incites and is incited by the host's inflammatory response. More recent work has suggested that chronic viral infection leaves the host with exaggerated immunity to bacterial infections. In this review, the relationship between CMV and host responses to sepsis are reviewed, with particular attention to the impact that tissue viral load contributes to this phenomenon.

Case Study: Fatal Exertional Rhabdomyolysis Possibly Related to Drastic Weight Cutting.

Rapid weight loss or "weight cutting" is a dangerous practice that is ubiquitous in modern combat sports yet underrepresented in the medical literature. We present a case of exertional rhabdomyolysis in a mixed martial artist with sickle cell trait to illustrate the hazards of weight cutting and ensuing critical illness. Sickle cell trait is known to predispose patients to exertional rhabdomyolysis, and multiple fatal cases have been reported in the setting of strenuous exercise. Dehydration and consequent electrolyte abnormalities make combat sport athletes with sickle cell trait particularly vulnerable to this entity. This case suggests a potential role for sickle cell trait screening in this population and underscores the need for safer weight-control practices and monitoring among all combat sport athletes.

Trial of short-course antimicrobial therapy for intraabdominal infection.

BACKGROUND: The successful treatment of intraabdominal infection requires a combination of anatomical source control and antibiotics. The appropriate duration of antimicrobial therapy remains unclear. METHODS: We randomly assigned 518 patients with complicated intraabdominal infection and adequate source control to receive antibiotics until 2 days after the resolution of fever, leukocytosis, and ileus, with a maximum of 10 days of therapy (control group), or to receive a fixed course of antibiotics (experimental group) for 4±1 calendar days. The primary outcome was a composite of surgical-site infection, recurrent intraabdominal infection, or death within 30 days after the index source-control procedure, according to treatment group. Secondary outcomes included the duration of therapy and rates of subsequent infections. RESULTS: Surgical-site infection, recurrent intraabdominal infection, or death occurred in 56 of 257 patients in the experimental group (21.8%), as compared with 58 of 260 patients in the control group (22.3%) (absolute difference, -0.5 percentage point; 95% confidence interval [CI], -7.0 to 8.0; P=0.92). The median duration of antibiotic therapy was 4.0 days (interquartile range, 4.0 to 5.0) in the experimental group, as compared with 8.0 days (interquartile range, 5.0 to 10.0) in the control group (absolute difference, -4.0 days; 95% CI, -4.7 to -3.3; P<0.001). No significant between-group differences were found in the individual rates of the components of the primary outcome or in other secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with intraabdominal infections who had undergone an adequate source-control procedure, the outcomes after fixed-duration antibiotic therapy (approximately 4 days) were similar to those after a longer course of antibiotics (approximately 8 days) that extended until after the resolution of physiological abnormalities. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; STOP-IT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00657566.).

Novel Method Suggests Global Superiority of Short-Duration Antibiotics for Intra-abdominal Infections.

Desirability of outcome ranking and response adjusted for duration of antibiotic risk (DOOR/RADAR) are novel and innovative methods of evaluating data in antibiotic trials. We analyzed data from a noninferiority trial of short-course antimicrobial therapy for intra-abdominal infection (STOP-IT), and results suggest global superiority of short-duration therapy for intra-abdominal infections.

Impact of the NAP-1 strain on disease severity, mortality, and recurrence of healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection.

OBJECTIVES: Studies are conflicting regarding the association of the North American pulsed-field gel electrophoresis type 1 (NAP1) strain in Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and outcomes. We evaluated the association of NAP1 with healthcare-associated CDI disease severity, mortality, and recurrence at our academic medical center. METHODS: Healthcare-associated CDI cases were identified from November 1, 2011 through January 31, 2013. Multivariable regression models were used to evaluate the associations of NAP1 with severe disease (based on the Hines VA severity score index), mortality, and recurrence. RESULTS: Among 5424 stool specimens submitted to the Clinical Microbiology Laboratory, 292 (5.4%) were positive for C. difficile by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on or after hospital day 4; 70 (24%) of these specimens also tested positive for NAP1. During the study period, 247 (85%) patients had non-severe disease and 45 (15%) patients had severe disease. Among patients with non-severe disease, 65 (26%) had NAP1 and among patients with severe disease, 5 (11%) had NAP1. After controlling for potential confounders, NAP1 was not associated with an increased likelihood of severe disease (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-0.93), in-hospital mortality (aOR = 1.02; 95% CI, 0.53-1.96), or recurrence (aOR = 1.16, 95% CI, 0.36-3.77). CONCLUSIONS: The NAP1 strain did not increase disease severity, mortality, or recurrence in this study, although the incidence of NAP1-positive healthcare associated-CDI was low. The role of strain typing in outcomes and treatment selection in patients with healthcare-associated CDI remains uncertain.

Broncholaveolar lavage to detect cytomegalovirus infection, latency, and reactivation in immune competent hosts.

Roughly 1/3rd of immune competent patients will reactivate latent cytomegalovirus (CMV) during critical illness. There are no standard methods to detect reactivation, and some investigators have postulated that presence of DNA in BAL fluid is indicative of viral replication. To test this hypothesis, we used a murine model that allows inclusion of matched healthy controls which is not possible in human studies. BALB/c mice infected with Smith-murine CMV or PBS (mock) had BAL evaluated 7, 14, or 21 days after acute infections, during latency, or during bacterial sepsis. Plaque assay, PCR, and rtPCR were performed on BALs and concomitantly obtained lung tissue. BAL cellular compositions, including tetramer evaluation of CMV-specific T cells were evaluated by flow cytometry. CMV DNA were detected in BAL at all time-points during acute infection, becoming undetectable in all mice during latency, then were detected again during bacterial sepsis, peaking 3 weeks after onset. mCMV specific T-cells were most numerous in BAL after acute viral infections, decreasing to low levels during latency, then fluctuating during bacterial sepsis. Specifically, mCMV-specific T-cells contracted at sepsis onset, expanding 2-4 weeks post-sepsis, presumably in response to increased viral loads at that time point. Altogether, our results support the use of BAL PCR for the diagnosis of CMV replication in immune competent hosts. Additionally, we demonstrate dynamic changes in CMV-specific T cells that occur in BAL during CMV infection and during sepsis induced viral reactivation. J. Med. Virol. 88:1408-1416, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Two Methods of Hemodynamic and Volume Status Assessment in Critically Ill Patients: A Study of Disagreement.

INTRODUCTION: The invasive nature and potential complications associated with pulmonary artery (PA) catheters (PACs) have prompted the pursuit of less invasive monitoring options. Before implementing new hemodynamic monitoring technologies, it is important to determine the interchangeability of these modalities. This study examines monitoring concordance between the PAC and the arterial waveform analysis (AWA) hemodynamic monitoring system. METHODS: Critically ill patients undergoing hemodynamic monitoring with PAC were simultaneously equipped with the FloTrac AWA system (both from Edwards Lifesciences, Irvine, California). Data were concomitantly obtained for hemodynamic variables. Bland-Altman methodology was used to assess CO measurement bias and κ coefficent to show discrepancies in intravascular volume. RESULTS: Significant measurement bias was observed in both CO and intravascular volume status between the 2 techniques (mean bias, -1.055 ± 0.263 liter/min, r = 0.481). There was near-complete lack of agreement regarding the need for intravenous volume administration (κ = 0.019) or the need for vasoactive agent administration (κ = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: The lack of concordance between PAC and AWA in critically ill surgical patients undergoing active resuscitation raises doubts regarding the interchangeability and relative accuracy of these modalities in clinical use. Lack of awareness of these limitations can lead to errors in clinical decision making when managing critically ill patients.

Dual analysis of the murine cytomegalovirus and host cell transcriptomes reveal new aspects of the virus-host cell interface.

Major gaps in our knowledge of pathogen genes and how these gene products interact with host gene products to cause disease represent a major obstacle to progress in vaccine and antiviral drug development for the herpesviruses. To begin to bridge these gaps, we conducted a dual analysis of Murine Cytomegalovirus (MCMV) and host cell transcriptomes during lytic infection. We analyzed the MCMV transcriptome during lytic infection using both classical cDNA cloning and sequencing of viral transcripts and next generation sequencing of transcripts (RNA-Seq). We also investigated the host transcriptome using RNA-Seq combined with differential gene expression analysis, biological pathway analysis, and gene ontology analysis. We identify numerous novel spliced and unspliced transcripts of MCMV. Unexpectedly, the most abundantly transcribed viral genes are of unknown function. We found that the most abundant viral transcript, recently identified as a noncoding RNA regulating cellular microRNAs, also codes for a novel protein. To our knowledge, this is the first viral transcript that functions both as a noncoding RNA and an mRNA. We also report that lytic infection elicits a profound cellular response in fibroblasts. Highly upregulated and induced host genes included those involved in inflammation and immunity, but also many unexpected transcription factors and host genes related to development and differentiation. Many top downregulated and repressed genes are associated with functions whose roles in infection are obscure, including host long intergenic noncoding RNAs, antisense RNAs or small nucleolar RNAs. Correspondingly, many differentially expressed genes cluster in biological pathways that may shed new light on cytomegalovirus pathogenesis. Together, these findings provide new insights into the molecular warfare at the virus-host interface and suggest new areas of research to advance the understanding and treatment of cytomegalovirus-associated diseases.

Sepsis and cytomegalovirus: foes or conspirators?

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation in non-immune-suppressed critically ill patients is an area of increasing interest. CMV has long been appreciated as a pathogen in immunocompromised hosts. CMV reactivates in approximately one-third of latently infected non-immune-suppressed hosts during critical illness; however, its role as a pathogen in these patients remains unclear. CMV reactivation has been linked to bacterial sepsis and likely results from inflammation, transient immune compromise, and viral epigenetic changes. While CMV may improve immune response to some bacterial infections, other data suggest that CMV induces exaggerated responses to severe infections that may be harmful to latently infected hosts. These results also suggest that previous infection history may explain significant differences seen between human septic responses and murine models of sepsis. While critically ill human hosts clearly have worse outcomes associated with CMV reactivation, determining causality remains an area of investigation, with randomized control trials currently being performed. Here we review the current literature and highlight areas for future investigation.

Mixed-species biofilm compromises wound healing by disrupting epidermal barrier function.

In chronic wounds, biofilm infects host tissue for extended periods of time. This work establishes the first chronic preclinical model of wound biofilm infection aimed at addressing the long-term host response. Although biofilm-infected wounds did not show marked differences in wound closure, the repaired skin demonstrated compromised barrier function. This observation is clinically significant, because it leads to the notion that even if a biofilm infected wound is closed, as observed visually, it may be complicated by the presence of failed skin, which is likely to be infected and/or further complicated postclosure. Study of the underlying mechanisms recognized for the first time biofilm-inducible miR-146a and miR-106b in the host skin wound-edge tissue. These miRs silenced ZO-1 and ZO-2 to compromise tight junction function, resulting in leaky skin as measured by transepidermal water loss (TEWL). Intervention strategies aimed at inhibiting biofilm-inducible miRNAs may be productive in restoring the barrier function of host skin.

Risk factors for retained surgical items: a meta-analysis and proposed risk stratification system.

BACKGROUND: Retained surgical items (RSI) are designated as completely preventable "never events". Despite numerous case reports, clinical series, and expert opinions few studies provide quantitative insight into RSI risk factors and their relative contributions to the overall RSI risk profile. Existing case-control studies lack the ability to reliably detect clinically important differences within the long list of proposed risks. This meta-analysis examines the best available data for RSI risk factors, seeking to provide a clinically relevant risk stratification system. METHODS: Nineteen candidate studies were considered for this meta-analysis. Three retrospective, case-control studies of RSI-related risk factors contained suitable group comparisons between patients with and without RSI, thus qualifying for further analysis. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis 2.0 (BioStat, Inc, Englewood, NJ) software was used to analyze the following "common factor" variables compiled from the above studies: body-mass index, emergency procedure, estimated operative blood loss >500 mL, incorrect surgical count, lack of surgical count, >1 subprocedure, >1 surgical team, nursing staff shift change, operation "afterhours" (i.e., between 5 PM and 7 AM), operative time, trainee presence, and unexpected intraoperative factors. We further stratified resulting RSI risk factors into low, intermediate, and high risk. RESULTS: Despite the fact that only between three and six risk factors were associated with increased RSI risk across the three studies, our analysis of pooled data demonstrates that seven risk factors are significantly associated with increased RSI risk. Variables found to elevate the RSI risk include intraoperative blood loss >500 mL (odds ratio [OR] 1.6); duration of operation (OR 1.7); >1 subprocedure (OR 2.1); lack of surgical counts (OR 2.5); >1 surgical team (OR 3.0); unexpected intraoperative factors (OR 3.4); and incorrect surgical count (OR 6.1). Changes in nursing staff, emergency surgery, body-mass index, and operation "afterhours" were not significantly associated with increased RSI risk. CONCLUSIONS: Among the "common risk factors" reported by all three case-control studies, seven synergistically show elevated RSI risk across the pooled data. Based on these results, we propose a risk stratification scheme and issue a call to arms for large, prospective, and multicenter studies evaluating effects of specific changes at the institutional level (i.e., universal surgical counts, radiographic verification of the absence of RSI, and radiofrequency labeling of surgical instruments and sponges) on the risk of RSI. Overall, our findings provide a meaningful foundation for future patient safety initiatives and clinical studies of RSI occurrence and prevention.

Clinical implications of cytomegalovirus in glioblastoma progression and therapy.

Glioblastoma (GBM) is one of the deadliest brain cancers with a median survival of only 15 months. This poor prognosis has prompted exploration of novel therapeutic targets for GBM patients. Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) has been implicated in GBM; however, its impact remains poorly defined, and there is conflicting data over the presence of HCMV in tumors. Nonetheless, clinical trials targeting HCMV have shown promising initial data, and evidence suggests that HCMV may negatively impact GBM patient survival by multiple mechanisms including changes in GBM cell behavior and the tumor microenvironment (TME) that potentiate tumor progression as well as therapy-induced virus reactivation. Moreover, HCMV has many effects on host immunity that could impact tumor behavior by altering the TME, which are largely unexplored. The goal of this review is to describe these potential interactions between HCMV and GBM. Better understanding of these processes may allow the development of new therapeutic modalities to improve GBM patient outcomes.

Comorbidity-polypharmacy score: a novel adjunct in post-emergency department trauma triage.

OBJECTIVE: Post-emergency department triage of older trauma patients continues to be challenging, as morbidity and mortality for any given level of injury severity tend to increase with age. The comorbidity-polypharmacy score (CPS) combines the number of pre-injury medications with the number of comorbidities to estimate the severity of comorbid conditions. This retrospective study examines the relationship between CPS and triage accuracy for older (≥45y) patients admitted for traumatic injury. METHODS: Patients aged 45y and older presenting to level 1 trauma center from 2005 to 2008 were included. Basic data included patient demographics, injury severity score, morbidity and mortality, and functional outcome measures. CPS was calculated by adding total numbers of comorbid conditions and pre-injury medications. Patients were divided into three triage groups: undertriage (UT), appropriate triage (AT), and overtriage (OT). UT criteria included initial admission to the floor or step-down unit followed by an unplanned transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) within 24h of admission. OT was defined as initial ICU admission for <1d without stated need for ICU level of care (i.e., lack of evidence for tracheal intubation or mechanical ventilation, injury-related hemorrhage, or other traditional ICU indications, such as intracranial bleeding). All other patients were presumed to be correctly triaged. The three triage groups were then analyzed looking for contributors to mistriage. RESULTS: Charts for 711 patients were evaluated (mean age, 63.5y; 55.7% male; mean ISS, 9.02). Of those, 11 (1.55%) met criteria for UT and 14 (1.97%) for OT. The remaining 686 patients had no evidence of mistriage. The three groups were similar in terms of injury severity and GCS. The groups were significantly different with respect to CPS, with UT CPSs (14.9±6.80) being nearly three times higher than OT CPSs (5.14±3.48). There were more similarities between AT and OT groups, with the UT group being characterized by greater number of complications and lower functional outcomes at discharge (all, P<0.05). The UT group had significantly higher mortality (27%) than the AT and OT groups (6% and 0%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In the era of medication reconciliation, CPS is easy to obtain and calculate in patients who are not critically injured. This study suggests that CPS may be a promising adjunct in identifying older trauma patients who are more likely to be undertriaged. The significance of our findings is especially important when considering that injury severity in the UT group was similar to that in the other groups. Further evaluation of CPS as a triage tool in acute trauma is warranted.

Intentional foreign object ingestions: need for endoscopy and surgery.

BACKGROUND: Intentional ingestion of foreign objects (IIFO) is common in the incarcerated population. This study was undertaken in order to better define clinical patterns of IIFO among prisoners. We sought to determine factors associated with the need for endoscopic and surgical therapy for IIFO. METHODS: After obtaining permission to conduct IIFO research in incarcerated populations, study patients were identified by ICD-9 codes. Patient charts were reviewed for demographics; past medical history; IIFO characteristics; and diagnostic, endoscopic, and surgical findings. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using statistical software. RESULTS: Thirty patients with 141 episodes of IIFO were identified. The mean number of ingested items per episode was 4.60. Endoscopy was performed in 97 of 141 IIFO instances, with failure to retrieve the ingested object in 21 of 97 cases (22%). Eleven instances (7.8%) required surgical intervention. On multivariate analyses, hospital admission was associated with elevated white blood cell count (odds ratio [OR] 1.4, P < 0.05) and number of items ingested (OR 1.3, P < 0.05). The need for endoscopy was independently associated with ingestion of multiple objects (OR 3.3, P < 0.05) and elevated white blood cell count (OR 1.3, P < 0.05). Surgical therapy was significantly associated with elevated white blood cell count (OR 1.6, P < 0.01) and with increasing number of ingested items (OR 1.07 per item, P < 0.05). Endoscopy is associated with significantly lower odds of surgery (OR 0.13, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Intentional ingestion of foreign objects continues to pose a significant human and economic burden. The need for admission or therapy is frequently associated with leukocytosis. Further investigation is warranted into resource-appropriate triage of patients who present with IIFO.

Adjunctive aerosolized colistin for multi-drug resistant gram-negative pneumonia in the critically ill: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of multi-drug resistant (MDR) gram-negative (GN) organisms including Pseudomonas and Acinetobacter spp has increased in the last decade, prompting re-evaluation of colistin for the management of these infections. Aerosolized colistin as an adjunct to intravenous therapy is a current option for the management of MDR-GN pneumonia, although data supporting this practice is limited. This study evaluates the efficacy of adjunctive aerosolized colistin in combination with intravenous colistin in critically ill patients with MDR-GN pneumonia. METHODS: A retrospective multi-center cohort analysis comparing critically ill patients with MDR-GN pneumonia who received intravenous colistin (IV) alone or in combination with adjunctive aerosolized colistin (IV/AER) with a primary endpoint of clinical cure at the end of colistin therapy. Secondary endpoints included microbiologic cure, duration of mechanical ventilation, length of stay, and hospital mortality. A post-hoc subgroup analysis was performed for patients with high quality cultures used for diagnosis of MDR-GN pneumonia. Dichotomous data were compared using Fisher's exact test while the student's t-test or Mann-Whitney U test were used for continuous variables. RESULTS: Ninety-five patients met criteria for evaluation with 51 patients receiving IV and 44 receiving IV/AER. Baseline characteristics were similar between the two groups. Twenty patients (39.2%) receiving IV and 24 (54.5%) receiving IV/AER achieved clinical cure (p = 0.135). There was no difference in microbiologic cure rates between the IV and IV/AER colistin groups (40.7vs. 44.4%, p = 0.805). The IV group demonstrated a trend towards higher pneumonia attributable mortality (70.4 vs. 40%, p = 0.055). In the subgroup analysis of patients with high quality respiratory cultures, there was a significantly lower clinical cure rate for those in the IV group as compared to the IV/AER group (31.3 vs. 57.1%, p = 0.033). CONCLUSIONS: Addition of aerosolized colistin to IV colistin may improve clinical cure and mortality for patients with MDR-GN pneumonia. Larger, prospective trials are warranted to confirm the benefit of adjunctive aerosolized colistin in critically ill patients with MDR-GN pneumonia.

Cytomegalovirus durably primes neutrophil oxidative burst.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a ubiquitous herpes virus that infects most humans, thereafter persisting lifelong in tissues of the host. It is a known pathogen in immunosuppressed patients, but its impact on immunocompetent hosts remains less understood. Recent data have shown that CMV leaves a significant and long-lasting imprint in host immunity that may confer some protection against subsequent bacterial infection. Such innate immune activation may come at a cost, however, with potential to cause immunopathology. Neutrophils are central to many models of immunopathology, and while acute CMV infection is known to influence neutrophil biology, the impact of chronic CMV infection on neutrophil function remains unreported. Using our murine model of CMV infection and latency, we show that chronic CMV causes persistent enhancement of neutrophil oxidative burst well after resolution of acute infection. Moreover, this in vivo priming of marrow neutrophils is associated with enhanced formyl peptide receptor expression, and ultimately constitutive c-Jun N-terminal kinase phosphorylation and enhanced CD14 expression in/on circulating neutrophils. Finally, we show that neutrophil priming is dependent on viral load, suggesting that naturally infected human hosts will show variability in CMV-related neutrophil priming. Altogether, these findings represent a previously unrecognized and potentially important impact of chronic CMV infection on neutrophil responsiveness in immunocompetent hosts.

Quantifying the Prognostic Value of Preoperative Surgeon Intuition: Comparing Surgeon Intuition and Clinical Risk Prediction as Derived from the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Risk Calculator.

BACKGROUND: Surgical risk prediction models traditionally use patient attributes and measures of physiology to generate predictions about postoperative outcomes. However, the surgeon's assessment of the patient may be a valuable predictor, given the surgeon's ability to detect and incorporate factors that existing models cannot capture. We compare the predictive utility of surgeon intuition and a risk calculator derived from the American College of Surgeons (ACS) NSQIP. STUDY DESIGN: From January 10, 2021 to January 9, 2022, surgeons were surveyed immediately before performing surgery to assess their perception of a patient's risk of developing any postoperative complication. Clinical data were abstracted from ACS NSQIP. Both sources of data were independently used to build models to predict the likelihood of a patient experiencing any 30-day postoperative complication as defined by ACS NSQIP. RESULTS: Preoperative surgeon assessment was obtained for 216 patients. NSQIP data were available for 9,182 patients who underwent general surgery (January 1, 2017 to January 9, 2022). A binomial regression model trained on clinical data alone had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.85) in predicting any complication. A model trained on only preoperative surgeon intuition had an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.78). A model trained on surgeon intuition and a subset of clinical predictors had an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative surgeon intuition alone is an independent predictor of patient outcomes; however, a risk calculator derived from ACS NSQIP is a more robust predictor of postoperative complication. Combining intuition and clinical data did not strengthen prediction.