Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests.

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions1-3. Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest 'carbon sink' will continue for decades4,5. Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests6. Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth's two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature7-9. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth's intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth's climate.

The number of tree species on Earth.

One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground-sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness.

Maximizing the value of forest restoration for tropical mammals by detecting three-dimensional habitat associations.

Tropical forest ecosystems are facing unprecedented levels of degradation, severely compromising habitat suitability for wildlife. Despite the fundamental role biodiversity plays in forest regeneration, identifying and prioritizing degraded forests for restoration or conservation, based on their wildlife value, remains a significant challenge. Efforts to characterize habitat selection are also weakened by simple classifications of human-modified tropical forests as intact vs. degraded, which ignore the influence that three-dimensional (3D) forest structure may have on species distributions. Here, we develop a framework to identify conservation and restoration opportunities across logged forests in Borneo. We couple high-resolution airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and camera trap data to characterize the response of a tropical mammal community to changes in 3D forest structure across a degradation gradient. Mammals were most responsive to covariates that accounted explicitly for the vertical and horizontal characteristics of the forest and actively selected structurally complex environments comprising tall canopies, increased plant area index throughout the vertical column, and the availability of a greater diversity of niches. We show that mammals are sensitive to structural simplification through disturbance, emphasizing the importance of maintaining and enhancing structurally intact forests. By calculating occurrence thresholds of species in response to forest structural change, we identify areas of degraded forest that would provide maximum benefit for multiple high-conservation value species if restored. The study demonstrates the advantages of using LiDAR to map forest structure, rather than relying on overly simplistic classifications of human-modified tropical forests, for prioritizing regions for restoration.

Tallo: A global tree allometry and crown architecture database.

Data capturing multiple axes of tree size and shape, such as a tree's stem diameter, height and crown size, underpin a wide range of ecological research-from developing and testing theory on forest structure and dynamics, to estimating forest carbon stocks and their uncertainties, and integrating remote sensing imagery into forest monitoring programmes. However, these data can be surprisingly hard to come by, particularly for certain regions of the world and for specific taxonomic groups, posing a real barrier to progress in these fields. To overcome this challenge, we developed the Tallo database, a collection of 498,838 georeferenced and taxonomically standardized records of individual trees for which stem diameter, height and/or crown radius have been measured. These data were collected at 61,856 globally distributed sites, spanning all major forested and non-forested biomes. The majority of trees in the database are identified to species (88%), and collectively Tallo includes data for 5163 species distributed across 1453 genera and 187 plant families. The database is publicly archived under a CC-BY 4.0 licence and can be access from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6637599. To demonstrate its value, here we present three case studies that highlight how the Tallo database can be used to address a range of theoretical and applied questions in ecology-from testing the predictions of metabolic scaling theory, to exploring the limits of tree allometric plasticity along environmental gradients and modelling global variation in maximum attainable tree height. In doing so, we provide a key resource for field ecologists, remote sensing researchers and the modelling community working together to better understand the role that trees play in regulating the terrestrial carbon cycle.

A global evaluation of the effectiveness of voluntary REDD+ projects at reducing deforestation and degradation in the moist tropics.

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) projects aim to contribute to climate change mitigation by protecting and enhancing carbon stocks in tropical forests, but there have been no systematic global evaluations of their impact. We used a new data set for tropical humid forests and a standardized evaluation approach (based on pixel matching) to quantify the performance of a representative sample of 40 voluntary REDD+ projects in 9 countries certified under the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS). In the first 5 years of implementation, deforestation within project areas was reduced by 47% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24-68) compared with matched counterfactual pixels, and degradation rates were 58% lower (95% CI: 49-63). Reductions were small in absolute terms but greater in sites located in high-deforestation settings and did not appear to be substantially undermined by leakage activities in forested areas within 10 km of project boundaries. At the 26th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the international community renewed its commitment to tackling tropical deforestation as a nature-based solution to climate change. Our results indicate that incentivizing forest conservation through voluntary site-based projects can slow tropical deforestation and highlight the particular importance of prioritizing financing for areas at greater risk of deforestation.

Evaluación Global de la Efectividad de proyectos REDD+ en la Reducción de la Deforestación y Degradación en el Trópico Húmedo Resumen Los proyectos para la reducción de emisiones derivados de la deforestación y degradación de bosques (REDD+) tienen como meta contribuir a la mitigación del cambio climático al protejer y  fomentar la disponibilidad de carbono en bosques tropicales, pero a la fecha no se han realizado evaluaciones globales sistemáticas sobre su impacto. Utilizamos bases de datos recientes sobre bosques tropicales húmedos y un método estandarizado de evaluación (basado en 'emparejamiento' [matching] de pixeles) para cuantificar el desempeño de una muestra representativa de 40 proyectos voluntarios REDD+ , localizados en 9 países y certificados bajo el estándar Verified Carbon Standard (VCS). En los primeros 5 años de implementación, la deforestación en las áreas de los proyectos disminuyó en 47% (IC 95% 24-68) en comparación con los pixeles contrafactuales correspondientes, y las tasas de degradación fueron 58% menos (IC 95% 49-63). Las reducciones fueron pequeñas en términos absolutos pero mayores en sitios con tasas de deforestación elevadas, y no parecieron ser afectadas sustancialmente por efectos de fuga (leakage) en áreas boscosas en un radio de 10 km de los límites del proyecto. En la COP26, la comunidad internacional renovó su compromiso de afrontar la deforestación tropical como una solución al cambio climático basada en la naturaleza. Nuestros resultados indican que incentivar la conservación de bosques mediante proyectos locales voluntarios puede disminuir la deforestación tropical, y resaltan la importancia de priorizar financiamiento en áreas con un mayor riesgo de deforestación.

Plant functional traits have globally consistent effects on competition.

Phenotypic traits and their associated trade-offs have been shown to have globally consistent effects on individual plant physiological functions, but how these effects scale up to influence competition, a key driver of community assembly in terrestrial vegetation, has remained unclear. Here we use growth data from more than 3 million trees in over 140,000 plots across the world to show how three key functional traits--wood density, specific leaf area and maximum height--consistently influence competitive interactions. Fast maximum growth of a species was correlated negatively with its wood density in all biomes, and positively with its specific leaf area in most biomes. Low wood density was also correlated with a low ability to tolerate competition and a low competitive effect on neighbours, while high specific leaf area was correlated with a low competitive effect. Thus, traits generate trade-offs between performance with competition versus performance without competition, a fundamental ingredient in the classical hypothesis that the coexistence of plant species is enabled via differentiation in their successional strategies. Competition within species was stronger than between species, but an increase in trait dissimilarity between species had little influence in weakening competition. No benefit of dissimilarity was detected for specific leaf area or wood density, and only a weak benefit for maximum height. Our trait-based approach to modelling competition makes generalization possible across the forest ecosystems of the world and their highly diverse species composition.

Leech blood-meal invertebrate-derived DNA reveals differences in Bornean mammal diversity across habitats.

The application of metabarcoding to environmental and invertebrate-derived DNA (eDNA and iDNA) is a new and increasingly applied method for monitoring biodiversity across a diverse range of habitats. This approach is particularly promising for sampling in the biodiverse humid tropics, where rapid land-use change for agriculture means there is a growing need to understand the conservation value of the remaining mosaic and degraded landscapes. Here we use iDNA from blood-feeding leeches (Haemadipsa picta) to assess differences in mammalian diversity across a gradient of forest degradation in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. We screened 557 individual leeches for mammal DNA by targeting fragments of the 16S rRNA gene and detected 14 mammalian genera. We recorded lower mammal diversity in the most heavily degraded forest compared to higher quality twice logged forest. Although the accumulation curves of diversity estimates were comparable across these habitat types, diversity was higher in twice logged forest, with more taxa of conservation concern. In addition, our analysis revealed differences between the community recorded in the heavily logged forest and that of the twice logged forest. By revealing differences in mammal diversity across a human-modified tropical landscape, our study demonstrates the value of iDNA as a noninvasive biomonitoring approach in conservation assessments.

Carbon flux and forest dynamics: Increased deadwood decomposition in tropical rainforest tree-fall canopy gaps.

Tree mortality rates are increasing within tropical rainforests as a result of global environmental change. When trees die, gaps are created in forest canopies and carbon is transferred from the living to deadwood pools. However, little is known about the effect of tree-fall canopy gaps on the activity of decomposer communities and the rate of deadwood decay in forests. This means that the accuracy of regional and global carbon budgets is uncertain, especially given ongoing changes to the structure of rainforest ecosystems. Therefore, to determine the effect of canopy openings on wood decay rates and regional carbon flux, we carried out the first assessment of deadwood mass loss within canopy gaps in old-growth rainforest. We used replicated canopy gaps paired with closed canopy sites in combination with macroinvertebrate accessible and inaccessible woodblocks to experimentally partition the relative contribution of microbes vs. termites to decomposition within contrasting understorey conditions. We show that over a 12 month period, wood mass loss increased by 63% in canopy gaps compared with closed canopy sites and that this increase was driven by termites. Using LiDAR data to quantify the proportion of canopy openings in the study region, we modelled the effect of observed changes in decomposition within gaps on regional carbon flux. Overall, we estimate that this accelerated decomposition increases regional wood decay rate by up to 18.2%, corresponding to a flux increase of 0.27 Mg C ha-1  year-1 that is not currently accounted for in regional carbon budgets. These results provide the first insights into how small-scale disturbances in rainforests can generate hotspots for decomposer activity and carbon fluxes. In doing so, we show that including canopy gap dynamics and their impacts on wood decomposition in forest ecosystems can help improve the predictive accuracy of the carbon cycle in land surface models.

Resilience of Spanish forests to recent droughts and climate change.

A widespread increase in forest cover is underway in northern Mediterranean forests because of land abandonment and decreased wood demand, but the resilience of these successional forests to climate change remains unresolved. Here we use 18-year time series of canopy greenness derived from satellite imagery (NDVI) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on Spain's forests. Specifically, we analyzed how NDVI was influenced by the climatic water balance (i.e. Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), using monthly time-series extracted from 3,100 pixels of forest, categorized into ten forest types. The forests increased in leaf area index by 0.01 per year on average (from 1.7 in 2000 to 1.9 in 2017) but there was enormous variation among years related to climatic water balance. Forest types varied in response to drought events: those dominated by drought-avoiding species showed strong covariance between greenness and SPEI, while those dominated by drought-tolerant species showed weak covariance. Native forests usually recovered more than 80% of greenness within the 18 months and the remainder within 5 years, but plantations of Eucalyptus were less resilient. Management to increase the resilience of forests-a key goal of forestry in the Mediterranean region-appears to have had a positive effect: canopy greenness within protected forests was more resilient to drought than within non-protected forests. In conclusion, many of Spain's successional forests have been resilient to drought over the past 18 years, from the perspective of space. Future studies will need to combine remote sensing with field-based analyses of physiological tolerances and mortality processes to understand how Mediterranean forests will respond to the rapid climate change predicted for this region in the coming decades.

Partial river flow recovery with forest age is rare in the decades following establishment.

Forest regeneration and expansion are occurring in many countries, with 80 million ha established from 2000 to 2012 under the Bonn accord and 17.5 million ha established from 1990 to 2005 according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation. Multiple reviews have linked increasing forest cover with reduced river flow and potentially detrimental effects downstream. Previous reviews have investigated trends in river flow response over time, but the influence of forest age remains uncertain. Partial river flow recovery (towards non-forested conditions) has been reported in decades following forest establishment, but the role of climate in driving these trends has not been explored. Here, we evaluate river flow trends in 43 studies following forest establishment, which provide sufficient information to distinguish the effects of ageing forests from variable climate. Our meta-analysis supports previous findings showing that forestation reduces annual river flow (by 23% after 5 years and 38% after 25 years) with greater reductions in catchments with higher mean annual precipitation, larger increases in forest cover, and which were idle, rather than agricultural land, prior to forestation. The impact of forests on river flow is sensitive to annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, but responses are highly variable. Forests affect river flow less when annual precipitation is low, and sensitivity to precipitation decreases as catchment aridity increases. The majority of catchments demonstrated persistent river flow declines after forest establishment. However, nine catchments showed partial flow recovery after an initial decrease, with peak flow reductions at an average age of 15 and across a range of tree species. The mean rate of recovery was 34 mm/year over 5 years. Partial flow recovery with forest age cannot be commonly expected, however, and forestation programmes should take into account that changes to annual river flow are likely to persist for up to five decades.

Reconciling the contribution of environmental and stochastic structuring of tropical forest diversity through the lens of imaging spectroscopy.

Both niche and stochastic dispersal processes structure the extraordinary diversity of tropical plants, but determining their relative contributions has proven challenging. We address this question using airborne imaging spectroscopy to estimate canopy ß-diversity for an extensive region of a Bornean rainforest and challenge these data with models incorporating niches and dispersal. We show that remotely sensed and field-derived estimates of pairwise dissimilarity in community composition are closely matched, proving the applicability of imaging spectroscopy to provide ß-diversity data for entire landscapes of over 1000 ha containing contrasting forest types. Our model reproduces the empirical data well and shows that the ecological processes maintaining tropical forest diversity are scale dependent. Patterns of ß-diversity are shaped by stochastic dispersal processes acting locally whilst environmental processes act over a wider range of scales.

Topography shapes the structure, composition and function of tropical forest landscapes.

Topography is a key driver of tropical forest structure and composition, as it constrains local nutrient and hydraulic conditions within which trees grow. Yet, we do not fully understand how changes in forest physiognomy driven by topography impact other emergent properties of forests, such as their aboveground carbon density (ACD). Working in Borneo - at a site where 70-m-tall forests in alluvial valleys rapidly transition to stunted heath forests on nutrient-depleted dip slopes - we combined field data with airborne laser scanning and hyperspectral imaging to characterise how topography shapes the vertical structure, wood density, diversity and ACD of nearly 15 km2 of old-growth forest. We found that subtle differences in elevation - which control soil chemistry and hydrology - profoundly influenced the structure, composition and diversity of the canopy. Capturing these processes was critical to explaining landscape-scale heterogeneity in ACD, highlighting how emerging remote sensing technologies can provide new insights into long-standing ecological questions.

Vessel diameter is related to amount and spatial arrangement of axial parenchyma in woody angiosperms.

Parenchyma represents a critically important living tissue in the sapwood of the secondary xylem of woody angiosperms. Considering various interactions between parenchyma and water transporting vessels, we hypothesize a structure-function relationship between both cell types. Through a generalized additive mixed model approach based on 2,332 woody angiosperm species derived from the literature, we explored the relationship between the proportion and spatial distribution of ray and axial parenchyma and vessel size, while controlling for maximum plant height and a range of climatic factors. When factoring in maximum plant height, we found that with increasing mean annual temperatures, mean vessel diameter showed a positive correlation with axial parenchyma proportion and arrangement, but not for ray parenchyma. Species with a high axial parenchyma tissue fraction tend to have wide vessels, with most of the parenchyma packed around vessels, whereas species with small diameter vessels show a reduced amount of axial parenchyma that is not directly connected to vessels. This finding provides evidence for independent functions of axial parenchyma and ray parenchyma in large vesselled species and further supports a strong role for axial parenchyma in long-distance xylem water transport.

Canopy structure and topography jointly constrain the microclimate of human-modified tropical landscapes.

Local-scale microclimatic conditions in forest understoreys play a key role in shaping the composition, diversity and function of these ecosystems. Consequently, understanding what drives variation in forest microclimate is critical to forecasting ecosystem responses to global change, particularly in the tropics where many species already operate close to their thermal limits and rapid land-use transformation is profoundly altering local environments. Yet our ability to characterize forest microclimate at ecologically meaningful scales remains limited, as understorey conditions cannot be directly measured from outside the canopy. To address this challenge, we established a network of microclimate sensors across a land-use intensity gradient spanning from old-growth forests to oil-palm plantations in Borneo. We then combined these observations with high-resolution airborne laser scanning data to characterize how topography and canopy structure shape variation in microclimate both locally and across the landscape. In the processes, we generated high-resolution microclimate surfaces spanning over 350 km2 , which we used to explore the potential impacts of habitat degradation on forest regeneration under both current and future climate scenarios. We found that topography and vegetation structure were strong predictors of local microclimate, with elevation and terrain curvature primarily constraining daily mean temperatures and vapour pressure deficit (VPD), whereas canopy height had a clear dampening effect on microclimate extremes. This buffering effect was particularly pronounced on wind-exposed slopes but tended to saturate once canopy height exceeded 20 m-suggesting that despite intensive logging, secondary forests remain largely thermally buffered. Nonetheless, at a landscape-scale microclimate was highly heterogeneous, with maximum daily temperatures ranging between 24.2 and 37.2°C and VPD spanning two orders of magnitude. Based on this, we estimate that by the end of the century forest regeneration could be hampered in degraded secondary forests that characterize much of Borneo's lowlands if temperatures continue to rise following projected trends.

Allometric equations for integrating remote sensing imagery into forest monitoring programmes.

Remote sensing is revolutionizing the way we study forests, and recent technological advances mean we are now able - for the first time - to identify and measure the crown dimensions of individual trees from airborne imagery. Yet to make full use of these data for quantifying forest carbon stocks and dynamics, a new generation of allometric tools which have tree height and crown size at their centre are needed. Here, we compile a global database of 108753 trees for which stem diameter, height and crown diameter have all been measured, including 2395 trees harvested to measure aboveground biomass. Using this database, we develop general allometric models for estimating both the diameter and aboveground biomass of trees from attributes which can be remotely sensed - specifically height and crown diameter. We show that tree height and crown diameter jointly quantify the aboveground biomass of individual trees and find that a single equation predicts stem diameter from these two variables across the world's forests. These new allometric models provide an intuitive way of integrating remote sensing imagery into large-scale forest monitoring programmes and will be of key importance for parameterizing the next generation of dynamic vegetation models.

Asymmetric competition causes multimodal size distributions in spatially structured populations.

Plant sizes within populations often exhibit multimodal distributions, even when all individuals are the same age and have experienced identical conditions. To establish the causes of this, we created an individual-based model simulating the growth of trees in a spatially explicit framework, which was parametrized using data from a long-term study of forest stands in New Zealand. First, we demonstrate that asymmetric resource competition is a necessary condition for the formation of multimodal size distributions within cohorts. By contrast, the legacy of small-scale clustering during recruitment is transient and quickly overwhelmed by density-dependent mortality. Complex multi-layered size distributions are generated when established individuals are restricted in the spatial domain within which they can capture resources. The number of modes reveals the effective number of direct competitors, while the separation and spread of modes are influenced by distances among established individuals. Asymmetric competition within local neighbourhoods can therefore generate a range of complex size distributions within even-aged cohorts.

Tropical nature reserves are losing their buffer zones, but leakage is not to blame.

Tropical forests provide important ecosystem services to humanity, yet are threatened by habitat loss resulting from deforestation and land-use change. Although reserves are considered the cornerstones of conservation efforts in the tropics, their efficacy remains equivocal. One question that remains unresolved is whether leakage - the unanticipated displacement of deforestation from inside reserves into the unrestricted zones just beyond a reserve's administrative boundary - is common around tropical forest reserves, or whether the zones are acting as buffers between the protected area and the outside world. To resolve this question, we used the Landsat-derived Global Forest Change dataset to estimate deforestation rates between 2000 and 2012 inside and outside of 60 nature reserves spread across the tropics. Deforestation rates inside reserves (within 5km of the administrative boundary) were generally lower than those immediately outside the reserves (i.e. in buffer zones 0-10km from the boundary), suggesting that reserves are effective at protecting forests. We hypothesised that leakage would result in greater deforestation rates in reserve buffer zones than in the broader reserve landscapes, but such a pattern was observed in only five African sites, suggesting that leakage does not often occur on the edge of established reserves. However, roughly 80% of reserves experienced deforestation rates that increased gradually from their interiors to the outer periphery of their buffer zones. Thus, while leakage may not be a pervasive phenomenon around tropical reserves worldwide, tropical reserves are often losing their buffer zones, resulting in increased isolation that could have ramifications for ecosystem services provisioning and tropical conservation strategies.

Stabilizing effects of diversity on aboveground wood production in forest ecosystems: linking patterns and processes.

Both theory and evidence suggest that diversity stabilises productivity in herbaceous plant communities through a combination of overyielding, species asynchrony and favourable species interactions. However, whether these same processes also promote stability in forest ecosystems has never been tested. Using tree ring data from permanent forest plots across Europe, we show that aboveground wood production is inherently more stable through time in mixed-species forests. Faster rates of wood production (i.e. overyielding), decreased year-to-year variation in productivity through asynchronous responses of species to climate, and greater temporal stability in the growth rates of individual tree species all contributed strongly to stabilising productivity in mixed stands. Together, these findings reveal the central role of diversity in stabilising productivity in forests, and bring us closer to understanding the processes which enable diverse forests to remain productive under a wide range of environmental conditions.

Plant movements and climate warming: intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils.

Most range shift predictions focus on the dispersal phase of the colonization process. Because moving populations experience increasingly dissimilar nonclimatic environmental conditions as they track climate warming, it is also critical to test how individuals originating from contrasting thermal environments can establish in nonlocal sites. We assess the intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils by planting a widespread grass of deciduous forests (Milium effusum) into an experimental common garden using combinations of seeds and soil sampled in 22 sites across its distributional range, and reflecting movement scenarios of up to 1600 km. Furthermore, to determine temperature and forest-structural effects, the plants and soils were experimentally warmed and shaded. We found significantly positive effects of the difference between the temperature of the sites of seed and soil collection on growth and seedling emergence rates. Migrant plants might thus encounter increasingly favourable soil conditions while tracking the isotherms towards currently 'colder' soils. These effects persisted under experimental warming. Rising temperatures and light availability generally enhanced plant performance. Our results suggest that abiotic and biotic soil characteristics can shape climate change-driven plant movements by affecting growth of nonlocal migrants, a mechanism which should be integrated into predictions of future range shifts.

Wood production response to climate change will depend critically on forest composition and structure.

Established forests currently function as a major carbon sink, sequestering as woody biomass about 26% of global fossil fuel emissions. Whether forests continue to act as a global sink will depend on many factors, including the response of aboveground wood production (AWP; MgC ha(-1 ) yr(-1) ) to climate change. Here, we explore how AWP in New Zealand's natural forests is likely to change. We start by statistically modelling the present-day growth of 97 199 individual trees within 1070 permanently marked inventory plots as a function of tree size, competitive neighbourhood and climate. We then use these growth models to identify the factors that most influence present-day AWP and to predict responses to medium-term climate change under different assumptions. We find that if the composition and structure of New Zealand's forests were to remain unchanged over the next 30 years, then AWP would increase by 6-23%, primarily as a result of physiological responses to warmer temperatures (with no appreciable effect of changing rainfall). However, if warmth-requiring trees were able to migrate into currently cooler areas and if denser canopies were able to form, then a different AWP response is likely: forests growing in the cool mountain environments would show a 30% increase in AWP, while those in the lowland would hardly respond (on average, -3% when mean annual temperature exceeds 8.0 °C). We conclude that response of wood production to anthropogenic climate change is not only dependent on the physiological responses of individual trees, but is highly contingent on whether forests adjust in composition and structure.