Carboxymethyl lysine, an advanced glycation end product, and incident diabetes: a case-cohort analysis of the ARIC Study.

AIMS: To verify whether elevated fasting levels of circulating carboxymethyl lysine (CML), an advanced glycation end product, predict the development of diabetes in middle-age adults. METHODS: Using a stratified case-cohort design, we followed 543 middle-aged individuals who developed diabetes and 514 who did not over a median 9 years in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Weighted Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to account for the design. RESULTS: In weighted analyses, correlation between CML levels and anthropometric, inflammatory or metabolic variables was minimal (Pearson correlations usually < 0.10). CML, when modelled as a continuous variable and after adjustment for age, sex, race, centre, parental history of diabetes, BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, non-esterified fatty acids, oxidized LDL-cholesterol, GFR, smoking, an inflammation score, adiponectin, leptin, insulin and glucose levels, was associated with an increased risk of diabetes [Hazard ratio (HR) = 1.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-1.67, for each 100 ng/ml CML increment]. Baseline glucose level and race each modified the association (P < 0.05 for interaction), which was present only among those with impaired fasting glucose (≥ 5.6 mmol/l, HR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.26-2.05) and among white participants (HR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.13-1.99). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated fasting CML, after adjustment for multiple risk factors for diabetes, predicts the development of incident diabetes, the association being present among those with impaired fasting glucose and in white participants. These prospective findings suggest that advanced glycation end products might play a role in the development of diabetes.

A Case-Control Study of Fluoridation and Osteosarcoma.

Public health policy decisions in the United States have resulted in 62.4% of the population having access to fluoridated water. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between community water fluoridation and osteosarcoma. A secondary data analysis was performed with data collected from 2 separate but linked studies. Patients for phase 1 and phase 2 were selected from US hospitals via a matched case-control study design. For both phases, cases included patients diagnosed with osteosarcoma, and controls were patients diagnosed with other bone tumors or nonneoplastic conditions. In phase 1, cases (n = 209) and controls (n = 440) were patients of record in the participating orthopedic departments from 1989 to 1993. In phase 2, cases (n = 108) and controls (n = 296) were incident patients who were identified and treated by orthopedic physicians from 1994 to 2000. This analysis included all patients who met eligibility criteria on whom we had complete data on covariates, exposures, and outcome. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for the association of community water fluoridation with osteosarcoma. A modestly significant interaction existed between fluoridation living status and bottled water use (P = 0.047). The adjusted OR for osteosarcoma and ever having lived in a fluoridated area for nonbottled water drinkers was 0.51 (95% CI, 0.31 to 0.84; P = 0.008). In the same comparison, the adjusted OR for bottled water drinkers was 1.86 (95% CI, 0.54 to 6.41; P = 0.326). Findings from this study demonstrated that community water fluoridation is not associated with an increased risk for osteosarcoma.

Glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies are indicators of the course, but not of the onset, of diabetes in middle-aged adults: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

To efficiently examine the association of glutamic acid decarboxylase antibody (GADA) positivity with the onset and progression of diabetes in middle-aged adults, we performed a case-cohort study representing the ~9-year experience of 10,275 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study participants, initially aged 45-64 years. Antibodies to glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD65) were measured by radioimmunoassay in 580 incident diabetes cases and 544 non-cases. The overall weighted prevalence of GADA positivity (>or=1 U/mL) was 7.3%. Baseline risk factors, with the exception of smoking and interleukin-6 (P or=2.38 U/mL) of positivity. GADA-positive and GADA-negative non-diabetic individuals had similar risk profiles for diabetes, with central obesity and elevated inflammation markers, aside from glucose, being the main predictors. Among diabetes cases at study's end, progression to insulin treatment increased monotonically as a function of baseline GADA level. Overall, being GADA positive increased risk of progression to insulin use almost 10 times (HR = 9.9; 95%CI = 3.4, 28.5). In conclusion, in initially non-diabetic middle-aged adults, GADA positivity did not increase diabetes risk, and the overall baseline profile of risk factors was similar for positive and negative individuals. Among middle-aged adults, with the possible exception of those with the highest GADA levels, autoimmune pathophysiology reflected by GADA may become clinically relevant only after diabetes onset.

Do retinopathy signs in non-diabetic individuals predict the subsequent risk of diabetes?

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Isolated retinopathy signs are common in non-diabetic individuals and have been shown to be associated with impaired glucose metabolism. In a cohort of people without diabetes, the association of these retinopathy signs and subsequent development of diabetes were examined. METHODS: A population based cohort study of 7992 people aged 49-73 years without diabetes was conducted. Retinal photographs of these participants were evaluated for the presence of retinopathy signs according to a standardised protocol. Incident cases of diabetes were identified prospectively. RESULTS: After a follow up of 3 years, 291 (3.6%) people developed incident diabetes. In the total cohort, retinopathy was not significantly associated with incident diabetes (4.7% v 3.6%, multivariable adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.1, 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.7 to 1.9). However, among participants with a positive family history of diabetes, retinopathy was associated with incident diabetes (10.4% v 4.8%, multivariable adjusted OR 2.3, 95% CI, 1.0 to 5.3). Among participants without a family history of diabetes, retinopathy was not associated with incident diabetes CONCLUSIONS: In individuals with a family history of diabetes, retinopathy signs predict subsequent risk of clinical diabetes.

Relationship of periodontal disease to carotid artery intima-media wall thickness: the atherosclerosis risk in communities (ARIC) study.

Periodontitis has been linked to clinical cardiovascular disease but not to subclinical atherosclerosis. The purpose of this study was to determine whether periodontitis is associated with carotid artery intima-media wall thickness (IMT). Cross-sectional data on 6017 persons aged 52 to 75 years were obtained from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study 1996 to 1998 examination. The dependent variable was carotid IMT >/=1 mm. Periodontitis was defined by extent of attachment loss >/=3 mm: none/mild (<10%), moderate (10% to <30%), or severe (>/=30%). Covariates included age, sex, diabetes, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, hypertension, smoking, waist-hip ratio, education, and race/study center. Odds of IMT >/=1 mm were higher for severe periodontitis (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.73 to 2.53) and moderate periodontitis (OR 1.40, CI 1.17 to 1.67) compared with no periodontitis. In a multivariable logistic regression model, severe periodontitis (OR 1.31, CI 1.03 to 1.66) was associated with IMT >/=1 mm, while adjusting for the other factors in the model. These results provide the first indication that periodontitis may play a role in the pathogenesis of atheroma formation, as well as in cardiovascular events.

Orthostatic hypotension as a risk factor for stroke: the atherosclerosis risk in communities (ARIC) study, 1987-1996.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The association between orthostatic hypotension (OH) and stroke has rarely been investigated in longitudinal studies. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether OH predicts ischemic stroke in a middle-aged, biethnic population after adjustment for known stroke risk factors. Diastolic, systolic, and consensus OH were evaluated for baseline associations and for the ability to predict stroke. METHODS: In 11 707 persons from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort who were free of stroke and overt heart disease at baseline, Cox proportional hazards analyses modeled the association between OH at baseline and incident ischemic stroke over 7.9 years of follow-up. OH was defined as a systolic blood pressure drop >/=20 mm Hg (systolic OH), a diastolic blood pressure drop >/=10 mm Hg (diastolic OH), or a drop in either (consensus OH) when a person changed from a supine to standing position. RESULTS: OH was predictive of ischemic stroke, even after adjustment for numerous stroke risk factors (consensus OH: hazard ratio, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.2). While the baseline characteristics associated with OH varied depending on the type of OH, all types of OH had a similar risk of stroke. CONCLUSIONS: OH is an easily obtained measurement that may help to identify middle-aged persons at risk for stroke.

Interaction of the glutathione S-transferase genes and cigarette smoking on risk of lower extremity arterial disease: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

Glutathione S-transferases M1 or T1 (GSTM1/GSTT1) affect the body's ability either to detoxify or to activate chemicals in cigarette smoke. Cigarette smoking increases the risk of lower extremity arterial disease (LEAD). We conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate a hypothesized interaction of the genetic polymorphisms of GSTM1 and T1 with cigarette smoking in the risk of LEAD in the ARIC study. A stratified-random sample, including 212 LEAD cases (ankle-brachial index <0.9 in men or <0.85 in women) and 1277 non-cases, was selected from the ARIC cohort of 12041 middle-aged participants free of CHD, transient ischemic attack and stroke at baseline (1987-1989). Overall, the differences in the frequencies of GSTM1-0 and GSTT1-0 (the homozygous deletion genotype) were not statistically significant between cases and non-cases (44 vs. 41% and 28 vs. 18%). However, smoking was more prevalent among LEAD cases than non-cases. The results suggest that the non-deletion genotype GSTM1-1 interacts with smoking to increase the risk of LEAD, but this interaction was not statistically significant. The functional genotype GSTT1-1 was significantly associated with increased risk of LEAD given smoking after adjustment for other risk factors. In individuals with GSTT1-1, the odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence intervals) of LEAD were 3.6 (1.4, 9.0) for current smoking and 5.0 (1.9, 13.0) for 20+ pack-years. However, in those with GSTT1-0, the ORs were 0.8 (0.2, 2.8) for current smoking and 0.6 (0.1, 2.1) for 20+ pack-years. The interaction was significant (P<0.05) on the additive scale for current smoking and on both the additive and multiplicative scales for 20+ pack-years. Among non-smokers, GSTT1-1 was not associated with LEAD. The results suggest that the GSTT1-1 polymorphism may be a susceptibility factor modifying the risk of LEAD associated with cigarette smoking.

Sources of heterogeneity in the meta-analysis of observational studies: the example of SIDS and sleeping position.

The study objective was to provide an example of how risk estimates might vary across studies of observational design, even when a causal association is present and to explore the possible sources of such variation. A meta-analysis of studies on the association between prone sleeping position and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) is used to illustrate how risk estimates might vary across studies. Data used were reported case-control studies of the association between sleeping position and SIDS that were published between 1970 and 1994. If the pooled odds ratio had been relied on to assess the association between sleeping position and SIDS without an accompanying examination of the reasons for heterogeneity, important insights into the causal significance of the relationship may have been lost. In meta-analyses of observational studies it is important to investigate the reasons for heterogeneity across studies.

Mathematical estimation of the potential effect of vascular remodelling/dilatation on B-mode ultrasound intima-medial thickness.

BACKGROUND: Arterial diameter changes are known to impact wall thickness, but the clinical relevance of the changes is unclear. AIM: To use known mathematical relationships to estimate anticipated changes in arterial wall thicknesses occurring with enlargement of atherosclerotic regions. DESIGN: Mathematical relationships between a cylinder's diameter and its wall thickness were used to calculate the theoretical effect of diameter enlargement on the thickness of an atherosclerotic wall. METHODS: Equating the wall areas of two cylinders, one of smaller diameter than the other, allowed estimation of the degree of thickening that would be needed to maintain intima-medial thickness (IMT) after arterial remodelling. The difference in cylinder diameters was based on arterial diameter enlargement reported with atherosclerosis progression. Thus, the calculated wall changes estimate arterial changes which could go undetected if only IMT is measured by ultrasound. RESULTS: The expected IMT change for diameter enlargement is not a linear function of the diameter change, but varies depending upon initial size (diameter and IMT). Thus a 0.6 mm arterial diameter enlargement would be expected to cause a 0.039-0.235 mm change in IMT, depending on artery size. The estimated IMT change is similar to that associated with major atherosclerotic risk factors. DISCUSSION: The level of vascular remodelling reported with atherosclerosis could have a measurable impact on IMT, suggesting that indicators incorporating both diameter and IMT may be better disease indicators than IMT alone. Arterial diameters, as well as IMT, should be obtained in ultrasound studies of atherosclerosis.

Features of infant exposure to tobacco smoke in a cohort study in Tasmania.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To document changes in smoking style around infants over time and to identify factors associated with the smoking hygiene of mothers and others. DESIGN: A population based cohort study. SETTING: Population based, involving 22% of live births in Tasmania, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: From 1 May 1988 to 30 April, 1993, 6109 infants and their mothers (89% of eligible infants) participated in the hospital and home interview of the cohort study. Infants eligible for cohort entry were those assessed at birth to be at a higher risk of SIDS. MAIN RESULTS: The overall proportion of mothers who smoked during pregnancy and postnatally did not decline. Increasing trends were found for mothers and others not smoking in the same room as baby or while holding or feeding the baby, significant over the five year period. Good smoking hygiene (mother not smoking in the same room as baby) was positively associated with--first birth (OR = 1.74 (1.30, 2.33)), low birth weight (1.69 (1.27, 2.23)), being born after 1 May 1991 (1.67 (1.33, 2.11)), and private health insurance status (1.39 (1.02, 1.90)). Good smoking hygiene was negatively associated with maternal smoking during pregnancy (0.50 (0.31, 0.80)), intention to bottle feed (0.62 (0.49, 0.78)), the level of maternal postnatal smoking, increasing numbers of smokers in the household, and parents cohabiting but unmarried. A similar analysis was conducted for other household residents who smoked. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in maternal smoking prevalence have been small. The exposure of infants to tobacco smoke postnatally has decreased significantly, although a large proportion of infants are still exposed to tobacco smoke. The identification of the above parental and infant factors associated with good smoking hygiene should be useful for health education planning.

The 1984 Tasmanian insulin treated diabetes mellitus prevalence cohort: an eight and a half year mortality follow-up investigation.

Total mortality and underlying cause of death were examined in a population-based prevalence cohort (n = 1232) of Tasmanians with insulin-treated diabetes mellitus. Eight and a half years after the establishment of the registry, the cause of death based on death certificate information was determined for the overall cohort and for three classification groups of insulin-treated diabetes: Group A--childhood-onset IDDM cases; Group B--adult-onset IDDM cases; and Group C--adult-onset insulin-treated NIDDM cases. A total of 378 deaths occurred, providing an overall SMR of 2.2 (95% CI 2.0-2.4) compared to the Tasmanian population. Diabetic females experienced a higher SMR (2.6, 95% CI 2.3-3.0) than diabetic males (1.9, 95% CI 1.6-2.2). The all-cause SMRs for the diabetic classification groups were 4.6 (95% CI 3.4-6.1) in Group A, 1.8 (95% CI 1.5-2.1) in Group B, and 2.2 (95% CI 1.9-2.6) in Group C. After adjusting for age, gender and duration of diabetes, the mortality in Group C was significantly higher compared to Group B (odds ratio 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.3). This study indicates that people with childhood-onset IDDM experience 4.6 times the death rate compared to the Tasmanian population and that the excess mortality is most pronounced in females.

Water fluoridation, bone mass and fracture: a quantitative overview of the literature.

OBJECTIVE: To use the technique of meta-analysis to address the following research questions: Is water fluoridation associated with altered fracture risk at a population level and are the differences between studies consistent with confounding or chance variation between studies? METHOD: The data sources utilised were Medline 1966-97, reviews and bibliographies. The search terms were fluoridation, bone mass and/or fracture. We included all observational studies published in English relating water fluoridation to bone mass and/or fracture in the initial assessment. RESULTS: Water fluoridation had no evident effect on fracture risk (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.96-1.09, n = 18 studies). There was marked heterogeneity between studies which could be explained, in part, by the combination of gender, urbanicity and study quality (R2 0.25, p = 0.05, weighted analysis). CONCLUSIONS: Water fluoridation both at levels aimed at preventing dental caries and, possibly, at higher naturally occurring levels appears to have little effect on fracture risk, either protective or deleterious, at a population level. The small effect on bone mass seen in studies performed at the individual level is consistent with this finding. Variation between studies is also likely to be due to differences in the distribution of other recognised fracture risk factors between different populations. Confirmation of these findings is required in large studies performed at the individual level.

Is this finding relevant? Generalisation and epidemiology.

The decision about whether the findings from analytical epidemiological studies can be extrapolated to another setting is an important one. We discuss some of the issues involved in the process of generalisation. A critical systematic qualitative approach should be used. This involves an assessment of the internal validity of the study and of the nature of the study base. The study subject matter and choice of epidemiologic measure should be considered. A study base similar to the target population is essential if the study is descriptive or if there is concern about effect modifiers whose effects cannot be predicted. In addition, data from quantitative tests of study findings in different populations should be considered.

Characteristics of infants receiving prompt first diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis immunisation in an infant cohort.

The Centers for Disease Control in the United States have stated that studies to determine factors associated with failure to receive the first recommended dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis are required. We examined an infant cohort to identify family and infant characteristics predictive of prompt first immunisation, to document changes in prompt first immunisation rates over time and to identify reasons for immunisation delay. The study sample consisted of one-fifth of live births in Tasmania at risk of sudden infant death syndrome. From 1 January 1988 to 31 December 1994, families of 8011 infants (83 per cent of eligible infants) participated in a telephone interview when the infants were a median postnatal age of 11 weeks and 3 days. Prompt immunisation was defined as the report by parents of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccination before a postnatal age of 10 weeks. The proportion of cohort infants promptly immunised increased (P < 0.0001) over time from 1988 to 1994. Prompt immunisation was associated with various characteristics of the infant and family. The proportion of infants promptly immunised decreased as birth order increased and as the interpregnancy interval between the index child and his or her immediately elder sibling decreased. After exclusion of infants not promptly immunised because of illness, birth order and interbirth interval remained significant predictors of prompt immunisation, suggesting that these factors are acting to increase immunisation delay through pathways unrelated to their potential effect on infant illness rates.

Development and validation of an ankle brachial index risk model for the prediction of cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: The ankle brachial index (ABI) is related to risk of cardiovascular events independent of the Framingham risk score (FRS). The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a risk model for cardiovascular events incorporating the ABI and FRS. DESIGN: An analysis of participant data from 18 cohorts in which 24,375 men and 20,377 women free of coronary heart disease had ABI measured and were followed up for events. METHODS: Subjects were divided into a development and internal validation dataset and an external validation dataset. Two models, comprising FRS and FRS + ABI, were fitted for the primary outcome of major coronary events. RESULTS: In predicting events in the external validation dataset, C-index for the FRS was 0.672 (95% CI 0.599 to 0.737) in men and 0.578 (95% CI 0.492 to 0.661) in women. The FRS + ABI led to a small increase in C-index in men to 0.685 (95% CI 0.612 to 0.749) and large increase in women to 0.690 (95% CI 0.605 to 0.764) with net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 4.3% (95% CI 0.0 to 7.6%, p = 0.050) and 9.6% (95% CI 6.1 to 16.4%, p < 0.001), respectively. Restricting the FRS + ABI model to those with FRS intermediate 10-year risk of 10 to 19% resulted in higher NRI of 15.9% (95% CI 6.1 to 20.6%, p < 0.001) in men and 23.3% (95% CI 13.8 to 62.5%, p = 0.002) in women. However, incorporating ABI in an improved newly fitted risk factor model had a nonsignificant effect: NRI 2.0% (95% CI 2.3 to 4.2%, p = 0.567) in men and 1.1% (95% CI 1.9 to 4.0%, p = 0.483) in women. CONCLUSIONS: An ABI risk model may improve prediction especially in individuals at intermediate risk and when performance of the base risk factor model is modest.

Cyclooxygenase polymorphisms and risk of cardiovascular events: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

Cyclooxygenase-derived prostaglandins modulate cardiovascular disease risk. We genotyped 2212 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants (1,023 incident coronary heart disease (CHD) cases; 270 incident ischemic stroke cases; 919 non-cases) with available DNA for polymorphisms in PTGS1 and PTGS2. Using a case-cohort design, associations between genotype and CHD or stroke risk were evaluated using proportional hazards regression. In Caucasians, the reduced function PTGS1 -1006A variant allele was significantly more common among stroke cases compared to non-cases (18.2 versus 10.6%, P=0.027). In African Americans, the reduced function PTGS2 -765C variant allele was significantly more common in stroke cases (61.4 versus 49.4%, P=0.032). No significant relationships with CHD risk were observed. However, aspirin utilization appeared to modify the relationship between the PTGS2 G-765C polymorphism and CHD risk (interaction P=0.072). These findings suggest that genetic variation in PTGS1 and PTGS2 may be important risk factors for the development of cardiovascular disease events. Confirmation in independent populations is necessary.