Genetic parameters and trends for Johne's disease in US Holsteins: An updated study.

Johne's disease (JD) is an infectious enteric disease in ruminants, causing substantial economic loss annually worldwide. This work aimed to estimate JD's genetic parameters and the phenotypic and genetic trends by incorporating recent data. It also explores the feasibility of a national genetic evaluation for JD susceptibility in Holstein cattle in the United States. The data were extracted from a JD data repository, maintained at the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding, and initially supplied by 2 dairy record processing centers. The data comprised 365,980 Holstein cows from 1,048 herds participating in a voluntary control program for JD. Two protocol kits, IDEXX Paratuberculosis Screening Ab Test (IDX) and Parachek 2 (PCK), were used to analyze milk samples with the ELISA technique. Test results from the first 5 parities were considered. An animal was considered infected if it had at least one positive outcome. The overall average of JD incidence was 4.72% in these US Holstein cattle. Genotypes of 78,964 SNP markers were used for 25,000 animals randomly selected from the phenotyped population. Variance components and genetic parameters were estimated based on 3 models, namely, a pedigree-only threshold model (THR), a single-step threshold model (ssTHR), and a single-step linear model (ssLR). The posterior heritability estimates of JD susceptibility were low to moderate: 0.11 to 0.16 based on the 2 threshold models and 0.05 to 0.09 based on the linear model. The average reliability of EBVs of JD susceptibility using single-step analysis for animals with or without phenotypes varied from 0.18 (THR) to 0.22 (ssLR) for IDX and from 0.14 (THR) to 0.18 (ssTHR and ssLR) for PCK. Despite no prior direct genetic selection against JD, the estimated genetic trends of JD susceptibility were negative and highly significant. The correlations of bulls' PTA with economically important traits such as milk yield, milk protein, milk fat, somatic cell score, and mastitis were low, indicating a nonoverlapping genetic selection process with traits in current genetic evaluations. Our results suggest the feasibility of reducing the JD incidence rate by incorporating it into the national genetic evaluation programs.

Estimating test-day milk yields by modeling proportional daily yields: Going beyond linearity.

In the United States, lactation milk yields are not measured directly but are calculated from the test-day milk yields. Still, test-day milk yields are estimated from partial yields obtained from single milkings. Various methods have been proposed to estimate test-day milk yields, primarily to deal with unequal milking intervals dating back to the 1970s and 1980s. The Wiggans model is a de facto method for estimating test-day milk yields in the United States, which was initially proposed for cows milked 3 times daily, assuming a linear relationship between a proportional test-day milk yield and milking interval. However, the linearity assumption did not hold precisely in Holstein cows milked twice daily because of prolonged and uneven milking intervals. The present study reviewed and evaluated the nonlinear models that extended the Wiggans model for estimating daily or test-day milk yields. These nonlinear models, except step functions, demonstrated smaller errors and greater accuracies for estimated test-day milk yields compared with the conventional methods. The nonlinear models offered additional benefits. For example, the locally weighted regression model (e.g., locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) could utilize data information in scalable neighborhoods and weigh observations according to their distance in milking interval time. General additive models provide a flexible, unified framework to model nonlinear predictor variables additively. Another drawback of the conventional methods is a loss of accuracy caused by discretizing milking interval time into large bins while deriving multiplicative correction factors for estimating test-day milk yields. To overcome this problem, we proposed a general approach that allows milk yield correction factors to be derived for every possible milking interval time, resulting in more accurately estimated test-day milk yields. This approach can be applied to any model, including nonparametric models.

Invited review: The future of selection decisions and breeding programs: What are we breeding for, and who decides?

Genetic selection has been a very successful tool for the long-term improvement of livestock populations, and the rapid adoption of genomic selection over the last decade has doubled the rate of gain in some populations. Breeding programs seek to identify genetically superior parents of the next generation, typically as a function of an index that combines information about many economically important traits into a single number. In the United States, the data that drive this system are collected through the national dairy herd improvement program that began more than a century ago. The resulting information about animal performance, pedigree, and genotype is used to compute genomic evaluations for comparing and ranking animals for selection. However, the full expression of genetic potential requires that animals are placed in environments that can support such performance. The Agricultural Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture and the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding collaborate to deliver state-of-the-art genomic evaluations to the dairy industry. Today, most breeding stock are selected and marketed using the net merit dollars (NM$) selection index, which evolved from 2 traits in 1926 (milk and fat yield) to a combination of 36 individual traits following the last NM$ update in 2018. Updates to NM$ require the estimation of many different values, and it can be difficult to achieve consensus from stakeholders on what should be added to, or removed from, the index at each review, and how those traits should be weighted. Over time, the majority of the emphasis in the index has shifted from yield traits to fertility, health, and fitness traits. Phenotypes for some of these new traits are difficult or expensive to measure, or require changes to on-farm habits that have not been widely adopted. This is driving interest in sensor-based systems that provide continuous measurements of the farm environment, individual animal performance, and detailed milk composition. There is also a need to capture more detailed data about the environment in which animals perform, including information about feeding, housing, milking systems, and infectious and parasitic load. However, many challenges accompany these new technologies, including a lack of standardization or validation, need for high-speed internet connections, increased computational requirements, and interpretations that are often not backed by direct observations of biological phenomena. This work will describe how US selection objectives are developed, as well as discuss opportunities and challenges associated with new technologies for measuring and recording animal performance.

Daily milk yield correction factors: What are they?

Cows are typically milked 2 or more times on a test-day, but not all these milkings are sampled and weighed. The initial approach estimated a test-day yield with doubled morning (AM) or evening (PM) yield in the AM-PM milking plans, assuming equal AM and PM milking intervals. However, AM and PM milking intervals can vary, and milk secretion rates may be different between day and night. Statistical methods have been proposed to estimate daily yields in dairy cows, focusing on various yield correction factors in 2 broad categories: additive correction factors (ACF) and multiplicative correction factors (MCF). The ACF are evaluated by the average differences between AM and PM milk yield for various milking interval classes, coupled with other categorical variables. We show that an ACF model is equivalent to a regression model of daily yield on categorical regressor variables, and a continuous variable for AM or PM yield with a fixed regression coefficient of 2.0. Similarly, a linear regression model can be implemented as an ACF model with the regression coefficient for AM or PM yield estimated from the data. The linear regression models improved the accuracy of the estimates compared with the ACF models. The MCF are ratios of daily yield to yield from single milkings, but their statistical interpretations vary. Overall, MCF were more accurate for estimating daily milk yield than ACF. The MCF have biological and statistical challenges. Systematic biases occurred when ACF or MCF were computed on discretized milking interval classes, leading to accuracy loss. An exponential regression model was proposed as an alternative model for estimating daily milk yields, which improved the accuracy. Characterization of ACF and MCF showed how they improved the accuracy compared with doubling AM or PM yield as the daily milk yield. All the methods performed similarly with equal AM and PM milkings. The methods were explicitly described to estimate daily milk yield in AM and PM milking plans. Still, the principles generally apply to cows milked more than 2 times a day and apply similarly to the estimation of daily fat and protein yields with some necessary modifications.

Does modeling causal relationships improve the accuracy of predicting lactation milk yields?

This study compared 3 correlational (best prediction, linear regression, and feed-forward neural networks) and 2 causal models (recursive structural equation model and recurrent neural networks) for estimating lactation milk yields. The correlational models assumed associations between test-day milk yields (health conditions), while the casual models postulated unidirectional recursive effects between these test-day variables. Wood lactation curves were used to simulate the data and served as a benchmark model. Individual Wood lactation curves provided an excellent parametric interpretation of lactation dynamics, with their prediction accuracies depending on the coverage of the lactation curve dynamics. Best prediction outperformed other models in the absence of mastitis but was suboptimal when mastitis was present and unaccounted for. Recurrent neural networks yielded the highest accuracy when mastitis was present. Although causal models facilitated the inference about the causality underlying lactation, precisely capturing the causal relationships was challenging because the underlying biology was complex. Misspecification of recursive effects in the recursive structural equation model resulted in a loss of accuracy. Hence, modeling causal relationships does not necessarily guarantee improved accuracies. In practice, a parsimonious model is preferred, balancing model complexity and accuracy. In addition to the choice of statistical models, the proper accounting for factors and covariates affecting milk yields is equally crucial.

Updating test-day milk yield factors for use in genetic evaluations and dairy production systems: a comprehensive review.

Various methods have been proposed to estimate daily yield from partial yields, primarily to deal with unequal milking intervals. This paper offers an exhaustive review of daily milk yields, the foundation of lactation records. Seminal advancements in the late 20th century concentrated on two main adjustment metrics: additive additive correction factors (ACF) and multiplicative correction factors (MCF). An ACF model provides additive adjustments to two times AM or PM milk yield, which then becomes the estimated daily yields, whereas an MCF is a ratio of daily yield to the yield from a single milking. Recent studies highlight the potential of alternative approaches, such as exponential regression and other nonlinear models. Biologically, milk secretion rates are not linear throughout the entire milking interval, influenced by the internal mammary gland pressure. Consequently, nonlinear models are appealing for estimating daily milk yields as well. MCFs and ACFs are typically determined for discrete milking interval classes. Nonetheless, large discrete intervals can introduce systematic biases. A universal solution for deriving continuous correction factors has been proposed, ensuring reduced bias and enhanced daily milk yield estimation accuracy. When leveraging test-day milk yields for genetic evaluations in dairy cattle, two predominant statistical models are employed: lactation and test-day yield models. A lactation model capitalizes on the high heritability of total lactation yields, aligning closely with dairy producers' needs because the total amount of milk production in a lactation directly determines farm revenue. However, a lactation yield model without harnessing all test-day records may ignore vital data about the shapes of lactation curves needed for informed breeding decisions. In contrast, a test-day model emphasizes individual test-day data, accommodating various intervals and recording plans and allowing the estimation of environmental effects on specific test days. In the United States, the patenting of test-day models in 1993 used to restrict the use of test-day models to regional and unofficial evaluations by the patent holders. Estimated test-day milk yields have been used as if they were accurate depictions of actual milk yields, neglecting possible estimation errors. Its potential consequences on subsequent genetic evaluations have not been sufficiently addressed. Moving forward, there are still numerous questions and challenges in this domain.

Genetic Evaluations of Stillbirth for Five United States Dairy Breeds: A Data-Resource Feasibility Study.

Genetic selection has been an effective strategy to improve calving traits including stillbirth in dairy cattle. The primary objectives of the present study were to characterize stillbirth data and determine the feasibility of implementing routine genetic evaluations of stillbirth in five non-Holstein dairy breeds, namely Ayrshire, Guernsey, Milking Shorthorn, Brown Swiss, and Jersey. An updated sire-maternal grandsire threshold model was used to estimate genetic parameters and genetic values for stillbirth. Stillbirth data with the birth years of dams from 1995 to 2018 were extracted from the United States national calving ease database maintained by the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding. The extracted stillbirth records varied drastically among the five dairy breeds. There were approximately 486K stillbirth records for Jersey and more than 80K stillbirth records for Brown Swiss. The direct and maternal heritability estimates of stillbirth were 6.0% (4.5-7.6%) and 4.7% (3.3-6.1%) in Jersey and 6.8% (3.2-10.5%) and 1.1% (0.6-2.9%) in Brown Swiss. The estimated genetic correlations between direct and maternal genetic effects for stillbirth were -0.15 (-0.38 to -0.08) in Jersey and -0.35 (-0.47 to -0.12) in Brown Swiss. The estimated genetic parameters for stillbirth in these two breeds were within close ranges of previous studies. The reliabilities of predicted transmitting abilities in Jersey and Brown Swiss increased substantially, thanks to the substantial increase in available stillbirth data in the past 10 years. The stillbirth records for Ayrshire, Guernsey, and Milking Shorthorn, which ranged approximately between 3K and 12K, are insufficient to implement reliable routine genetic evaluations of stillbirth in these three dairy breeds. Estimated genetic (co)variances and genetic values deviated considerably from the reported ranges of previous studies, and the reliabilities of predicted transmitting abilities were low in these three breeds. In conclusion, routine genetic evaluations of stillbirth are feasible in Brown Swiss and Jersey. However, reliable genetic evaluations of stillbirth in Ayrshire, Guernsey, and Milking Shorthorn require further data collection on stillbirth.

Statistical Methods Revisited for Estimating Daily Milk Yields: How Well do They Work?

Cost-effective milking plans have been adapted to supplement the standard supervised twice-daily monthly testing scheme since the 1960s. Various methods have been proposed to estimate daily milk yields (DMY), focusing on yield correction factors. The present study evaluated the performance of existing statistical methods, including a recently proposed exponential regression model, for estimating DMY using 10-fold cross-validation in Holstein and Jersey cows. The initial approach doubled the morning (AM) or evening (PM) yield as estimated DMY in AM-PM plans, assuming equal 12-h AM and PM milking intervals. However, in reality, AM milking intervals tended to be longer than PM milking intervals. Additive correction factors (ACF) provided additive adjustments beyond twice AM or PM yields. Hence, an ACF model equivalently assumed a fixed regression coefficient or a multiplier of "2.0" for AM or PM yields. Similarly, a linear regression model was viewed as an ACF model, yet it estimated the regression coefficient for a single milk yield from the data. Multiplicative correction factors (MCF) represented daily to partial milk yield ratios. Hence, multiplying a yield from single milking by an appropriate MCF gave a DMY estimate. The exponential regression model was analogous to an exponential growth function with the yield from single milking as the initial state and the rate of change tuned by a linear function of milking interval. In the present study, all the methods had high precision in the estimates, but they differed considerably in biases. Overall, the MCF and linear regression models had smaller squared biases and greater accuracies for estimating DMY than the ACF models. The exponential regression model had the greatest accuracies and smallest squared biases. Model parameters were compared. Discretized milking interval categories led to a loss of accuracy of the estimates. Characterization of ACF and MCF revealed their similarities and dissimilarities and biases aroused by unequal milking intervals. The present study focused on estimating DMY in AM-PM milking plans. Yet, the methods and relevant principles are generally applicable to cows milked more than two times a day.

An alternative interpretation of residual feed intake by phenotypic recursive relationships in dairy cattle.

There has been increasing interest in residual feed intake (RFI) as a measure of net feed efficiency in dairy cattle. Residual feed intake phenotypes are obtained as residuals from linear regression encompassing relevant factors (i.e., energy sinks) to account for body tissue mobilization. By rearranging the single-trait linear regression, we showed a causal RFI interpretation underlying the linear regression for RFI. It postulates recursive effects in energy allocation from energy sinks on dry matter intake, but the feedback or simultaneous effects are nonexistent. A Bayesian recursive structural equation model was proposed for directly predicting RFI and energy sinks and estimating relevant genetic parameters simultaneously. A simplified Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was described. The recursive model is asymptotically equivalent to one-step linear regression for RFI, yet extends the analytical capacity to multiple-trait analysis.

Técnica rápida de neutralizaçäo viral para a detecçäo de anticorpos contra o vírus da Diarréia Viral Bovina (BVDV) no leite / A rapid virus-neutralization test for detection of antibodies against bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in milk

A identificaçäo de rebanhos positivos para o vírus da Diarréia Viral Bovina (BVDV) através de detecçäo de anticorpos no leite pode viabilizar programas de controle em larga escala. Com esse objetivo, a técnica de soro-neutralizaçäo (SN) foi adaptada para a pesquisa de anticorpos em amostras de leite. A adaptaçäo consistiu na reduçäo do tempo de incubaçäo do teste, seguida da detecçäo de antígenos virais por imunofluorescência. A reduçäo do tempo de incubaçäo minimizou os efeitos tóxicos do leite sobre as células de cultivo, além de permitir a obtençäo dos resultados em 24 horas. A técnica rápida (SNR) foi inicialmente testada em 1.335 amostras de soro bovino, apresentando sensibilidade de 93,7 por cento e concordância de 91,1 por cento em relaçäo à SN tradicional. A SNR foi também utilizada para testar 423 amostras de soro bovino que apresentaram toxicidade para as células na SN tradicional, detectando 316 (74,7 por cento) amostras positivas. O teste de amostras de soro e leite de 520 vacas em lactaçäo demonstrou que a SNR pode detectar anticorpos no leite de vacas com títulos séricos a partir de 10. Atividade neutralizante anti-BVDV no leite foi detectada em 97,4 por cento (191/196) de vacas com títulos séricos ³ 320; em 92,9 por cento (79/85) de vacas com títulos de 160; em 88 por cento (59/67) de vacas títulos de 80. A freqüência de animais positivos na SNR foi de 76,9 por cento (40/52) para animais com títulos séricos de 40; 61,3 por cento (19/31) com títulos de 20 e de 33,3 por cento (10/30) para vacas com títulos de 10. Esses resultados demonstram que a técnica de SNR é adequada para a pesquisa de anticorpos anti-BVDV no leite, principalmente em animais com títulos moderados e altos de anticorpos. Essa técnica pode ser utilizada para testar amostras coletivas de leite e identificar rebanhos com atividade viral. A utilizaçäo dessa técnica pode viabilizar programas regionais de combate à infecçäo, pois permite testar um grande número de amostras e identificar rebanhos positivos através do leite enviado rotineiramente para contagem de células somáticas (CCS), reduzindo significativamente os custos com a coleta individual, transporte e teste de amostras

Detecção de anticorpos contra o vírus da diarréia viral bovina (BVDV) em amostras de tanques de leite de rebanhos do Rio Grande do Sul

Uma técnica de soro-neutralização rápida (SNR), anteriormente adaptada para a detecção de anticorpos contra o vírus dadiarréia viral bovina (BVDV) no leite foi utilizada para a pesquisa de anticorpos anti-BVDV em amostras de recipientes coletivosde leite de propriedades leiteiras no Rio Grande do Sul. Inicialmente, a SNR foi comparada com um teste comercial do tipoELISA, na pesquisa de anticorpos em amostras de leite de 430 vacas de status sorológico conhecido. Das 430 amostrastestadas, as duas técnicas concordaram em 368 (85,6%), sendo 266 positivas (61,9%) e 102 negativas (23,8%). Comparando-se com os resultados do ELISA, a SNR apresentou uma sensibilidade de 90,8%, especificidade de 74,4% e precisão de85,5%. O grau de concordância (k) foi de 0,65, que significa uma boa associação entre as técnicas. A técnica de SNR foi entãoutilizada para testar amostras de recipientes coletivos de leite de 11.711 rebanhos do estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Anticorposcontra o BVDV foram detectados no leite de 1.028 rebanhos (8,8%), sendo que 180 propriedades (1,5% do total) apresentaramtítulos altos (³80) de anticorpos no leite, sugerindo possuírem infecção ativa. Esses resultados demonstraram que a técnica deSNR é adequada para a detecção de anticorpos anti-BVDV no leite e pode ser utilizada em triagens para a identificação derebanhos positivos para o BVDV.